Have fun with this.

1. The Case
For
Opening
Florida
Schools

2. How Science
Works…
If the evidence changes, the conclusion changes.

3. What Evidence Do We Have To
Draw Conclusions?
1. Current US and Florida COVID statistics, including cases,
hospitalizations, and deaths.
2. Studies from other countries that have reopened schools.

5. American Academy of Pediatrics
“the AAP strongly advocates that all policy considerations for the
coming school year should start with a goal of having students
physically present in school.”

6. Centers For Disease Control
The best available evidence indicates if children become infected, they are far
less likely to suffer severe symptoms. Death rates among school-aged children
are much lower than among adults. At the same time, the harms attributed to
closed schools on the social, emotional, and behavioral health, economic well-
being, and academic achievement of children, in both the short- and long-
term, are well-known and significant. Further, the lack of in-person
educational options disproportionately harms low-income and minority
children and those living with disabilities.
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/reopening-schools.html

7. Current COVID
Case Statistics in
Florida

8. Total Case Count
Last Update: Jul 22Source: https://open-fdoh.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/florida-covid19-case-line-data/data?selectedAttribute=EventDate

9. Case Count Over Age 65 (High
Risk)
Last Update: Jul 22Source: https://open-fdoh.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/florida-covid19-case-line-data/data?selectedAttribute=EventDate

10. Case Count Under Age 65 (Low
Risk)
Last Update: Jul 22Source: https://open-fdoh.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/florida-covid19-case-line-data/data?selectedAttribute=EventDate

11. Conclusion
The majority of new cases are driven by the “low-risk” cohort.

12. Current COVID
Death Statistics in
Florida

13. Deaths By Date of Death
Source: https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/florida-data/ Last Update: Jul 29

14. Case Fatality Rate By Age
Source: https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/florida-data/ Last Update: Jul 29

15. Conclusion
For the young, the risk of death from COVID is less than the
risk of death from the flu. This risk drastically increases above
the age of 65.

16. Current COVID
Hospital Statistics
in Florida

17. Hospitalizations By Case Date
Source: https://open-fdoh.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/florida-covid19-case-line-data/data?selectedAttribute=EventDate Last Update: Jul 22

18. Florida ICU Capacity By County, By
Date
0
50
100
150
200
250
WASHINGTON
WALTON
VOLUSIA
UNION
TAYLOR
SUWANNEE
SUMTER
ST.LUCIE
ST.JOHNS
SEMINOLE
SARASOTA
SANTAROSA
PUTNAM
POLK
PINELLAS
PASCO
PALMBEACH
OSCEOLA
ORANGE
OKEECHOBEE
OKALOOSA
NASSAU
MONROE
MIAMI-DADE
MARTIN
MARION
MANATEE
MADISON
LEON
LEE
LAKE
JACKSON
INDIANRIVER
HOLMES
HILLSBOROUGH
HIGHLANDS
HERNANDO
HENDRY
HARDEE
GULF
GADSDEN
FRANKLIN
FLAGLER
ESCAMBIA
DUVAL
DESOTO
COLUMBIA
COLLIER
CLAY
CITRUS
CHARLOTTE
CALHOUN
BROWARD
BREVARD
BAY
BAKER
ALACHUA
County
Florida ICU Available, By County
7/8 Empty
7/9 Empty
7/12 Empty
7/15 Empty
7/18 Empty
7/20 Empty
7/29 Empty
Source:
https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/HospitalBedsHospital?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3Asho
wVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y Last Update: Jul 29

19. Florida ICU Capacity (Total), By
Date
Source: https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/florida-data/
Last Update: Jul 29

20. Florida Hospital Beds, COVID vs.
Non-COVID
Source: https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/florida-data/
Last Update: Jul 29

21. Conclusion
Despite the case spike in the state, hospitals are not beyond
capacity.
This can change, yet the data received over the summer show
that the crisis has been managed without restrictive
lockdown measures.

22. COVID
Transmission
Through Children

23. What Are We Concerned About?
1. Children becoming sick, hospitalized, and dead. Current data show this
risk is lower than a traditional influenza virus.
2. Transmission to other children, teachers, and families - causing hotspots,
outbreaks, higher case counts, higher hospitalizations, and higher
deaths. Current data show children are not a significant infection
vector for adults.

24. Study 1
Outbreak investigations in Finland has not shown children to be
contributing much in terms of transmission and in Sweden a report
comparing risk of covid-19 in different professions, showed no increased
risk for teachers.
In conclusion, closure or not of schools had no measurable direct impact on
the number of laboratory confirmed cases in school-aged children in
Finland or Sweden
Source:
Sweden Public Health Agency
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/c1b78bffbfde4a7899eb0d8ffdb57b09/covid-19-school-aged-
children.pdf

25. Study 2
Schools do not play a major role in spreading the coronavirus, according to the results of a
German study released on Monday.
The study, the largest carried out on schoolchildren and teachers in Germany, found traces
of the virus in fewer than 1 per cent of teachers and children.
Scientists from Dresden Technical University said they believe children may act as a “brake”
on chains of infection.
Prof Reinhard Berner, the head of pediatric medicine at Dresden University Hospital and
leader of the study, said the results suggested the virus does not spread easily in schools.
Source:
Dresden Technical University (Need Direct Source to Paper)
https://news.yahoo.com/german-study-finds-no-evidence-164704005.html

26. Social Distancing Is Not Needed
For Children
“Data from the Netherlands also confirms the current understanding: that children play a
minor role in the spread of the novel coronavirus. The virus is mainly spread between
adults and from adult family members to children. The spread of COVID-19 among children
or from children to adults is less common.”
• Children up to and including 12 years of age do not have to keep 1.5 metres apart
from each other and from adults. This also applies to childcare and primary education.
• Young people aged 13 until 18 years old (i.e. 17 years old and younger) do not have to
stay 1.5 metres apart from each other. In secondary schools, this applies to all pupils,
regardless of their age.
Source:
Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu
https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/children-and-covid-19

27. Denmark – Infection Rate Stays
Under 1 After Schools Reopened
Source:
Statens Serum Institute
https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2020/status-for-smittetrykket-i-danmark-29-april-2020

28. NIPH – No Evidence Children Are
Key Drivers
Can children transmit the virus, and if so, to whom?
Current evidence suggest that children can transmit SARS-CoV-2, but there is no evidence that
children are key drivers of transmission. Evidence is sparse, and it is too early to conclude firmly about
the role children play in transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
What are the measurable effects of school closures?
We have not identified directly applicable data, but limited evidence based on experiences from the
SARS outbreak in Beijing in 2003 suggest that school closure had limited impact on transmission
control.
Source:
Norwegian Institute Of Public Health
https://www.fhi.no/en/publ/2020/The-role-of-children-in-the-transmission-of-SARS-CoV-2-COVID-19-1st-update/

29. Opening Schools Does Not Lead To
Case Spikes
“Countries that have reopened schools
after passing the peak of the epidemic
show no immediate spike in new cases
so far.”
“We’ll continue to track reopening patterns.
But in the meantime, it remains true that
countries that reopened schools 25-30 days
after their peak don’t tend to show a change
in trend in new cases.”
(May 29, 2020)Source:
Center for Global Development
https://www.cgdev.org/blog/back-school-tracking-covid-cases-schools-reopen
https://www.cgdev.org/blog/back-school-update-covid-cases-schools-reopen

30. Opening Schools Does Not Lead To
Case Spikes
Source:
Wall Street Journal
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-it-safe-to-reopen-schools-these-countries-say-yes-11590928949
A number of countries that have reopened schools in the past two months have
reported no resulting increase in coronavirus infection rates, an encouraging sign for
authorities around the world that are contemplating how and when to safely bring
children back to the classroom.

31. Opening Schools Does Not Lead To
Case Spikes
Source:
The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/18/french-minister-tells-of-risks-of-missing-school-as-more-pupils-return-
covid-19
The reopening of schools in 22 European countries has not led to any significant
increase in coronavirus infections among children, parents or staff, a
videoconference meeting of education ministers from around the EU has heard.

32. No Evidence Of Secondary
Transmission - Ireland
We examined Irish
notifications of SARS-CoV2 in
the school setting before
school closures on 12 March
2020 and identified no
paediatric transmission.
This adds to current evidence
that children do not appear
to be drivers of
transmission, and we argue
that reopening schools should
be considered safe
accompanied by certain
measures.
Source:
Ireland Health Services
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.21.2000903#abstract_content

33. No Evidence of Secondary
Transmission - Australia
“Our investigation found no
evidence of children infecting
teachers.”
Source:
National Center For Immunisation Research and Surveillance
http://ncirs.org.au/sites/default/files/2020-
04/NCIRS%20NSW%20Schools%20COVID_Summary_FINAL%20public_26%20April%202020.pdf

34. School Closures Are Not Effective
Compared to Other Interventions
• Based on our model, we compare the effectiveness of NPIs in the early
stages of the outbreak. The closure of venues is associated with a
reduction in the number of new cases by 33 % (95% credible interval [CrI]
16–47 %). The reduction is lower for work bans on non-essential business
activities (28 %; 95% CrI 10–42 %) and border closures (26 %; 95% CrI 13–
37 %). School closures yield a reduction of only 11 % (95% CrI 0–27 %)
and its relative impact is one of the lowest among the various policy
measures considered in this analysis.
Source:
Swiss National Science Foundation
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20062141v1.full.pdf

35. Conclusion
Children are not a statistically significant transmission risk.

36. Caveats
Most studies are outside the United States.
Outcomes inside US could change due to demographics,
population health, obesity rates, mutations in the virus, and fall
seasonality.
Unless the data change, the conclusion must remain the same.

38. Health Care Workers Can’t Go To
Their Jobs
“ Our model estimates that if the infection mortality rate of COVID-19 increases
from 2·00% to 2·35% when the health-care workforce declines by 15·0%, school
closures could lead to a greater number of deaths than they prevent.”
Source:
Lancet
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30082-7/fulltext

39. School Closures Increase Inequality
“The summer holiday in most American schools is estimated to contribute to a loss
in academic achievement equivalent to one month of education for children with
low socioeconomic status; however, this effect is not observed for children with
higher socioeconomic status.6
Source:
Lancet
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30084-0/fulltext

40. Child Abuse Goes Undetected
“Teachers, coaches and health care professionals, people trained to recognize child
abuse, "are just not seeing these kids,” said Daphne Young, chief communications
officer for Childhelp, a child-welfare organization with a national abuse hotline.”
Source:
Lancet
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30084-0/fulltext

41. Conclusion
The risks for children are vastly higher if schools stay closed.