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2 1 5 
Jacek Cukrowski 
Financing the Deficit of the State Budget 
by National Bank of Georgia (1996–1999) 
W a r s a w , 2 0 0 0
Materials published here have a working paper character. They can be subject to further 
publication. The views and opinions expressed here reflect Authors’ point of view and 
not necessarily those of CASE. 
This paper was prepared for the advisory project "Support to Economic Reform in Georgia" 
financed by the Open Society Institute (OSI). 
© CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw 2000 
Graphic Design: Agnieszka Natalia Bury 
DTP: CeDeWu – Centrum Doradztwa i Wydawnictw “Multi-Press” sp. z o.o. 
ISSN 1506-1701, ISBN 83-7178-235-7 
Publisher: 
CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research 
ul. Sienkiewicza 12, 00-944 Warsaw, Poland 
tel.: (4822) 622 66 27, 828 61 33, fax (4822) 828 60 69 
e-mail: case@case.com.pl
Contents 
Abstract 5 
1. Introduction 6 
2. Seigniorage Revenues 7 
3. Distribution of Seigniorage Revenues 9 
4. Empirical Analysis 10 
5. Macroeconomic Comment 17 
6. Concluding Remarks 19 
Appendix. Data Sources 21 
References 27
Jacek Cukrowski 
Jacek Cukrowski (born 1960) received his M.Sc. degree in Systems Engineering in 1985, 
Ph.D. in Computer Science in 1990, Postgraduate Diploma in Sociology and Politics in 1993, 
Ph.D. in Economics in 1995. In 1997 he defended Habilitation Thesis in Economics. In 
1992–1999 he worked as a researcher in the Economics Institute in the Academy of Science 
of the Czech Republic. Since 1998 he has been a docent of Charles University (Czech 
Republic), and Professor of University of Finance and Business (Poland), since 1997 with CASE 
Fundation. 
4 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski
Abstract 
In this paper the concept of total gross seigniorage is used to analyze sources of 
revenues of National Bank of Georgia (NBG) and their distribution in the period 
1996–1999. A comprehensive framework for measuring total seigniorage and its main 
components is presented and estimates of seigniorage revenues (sources and uses) are 
computed and analyzed. It is shown that in the considered period fiscal revenues from 
NBG have not been extensively financed by the money supply (consequently, cannot be 
estimated by the monetary seigniorage), but have been mostly covered by the reduction 
of the non government debt hold by central bank. Since the stock of international and 
private domestic assets hold by National Bank of Georgia is limited, in long run NBG 
cannot rely on it. The only way how, in the future, NBG can finance large deficits of the 
state budget is to use monetary seigniorage. This, however, will have to be accompanied 
by significant growth of monetary base and will cause a danger of large inflation. 
5 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ...
1. Introduction 
In the aftermath of the breakdown of the Soviet Union, internal armed conflict and 
the war in Abkhazia, during the first years of independence Georgia experienced 
significant economic crisis. In 1992–1993 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reduced almost 
by 70%. The economy shifted to the shadow sector. The government unable to collect 
taxes had to get external debt resulting in significant foreign outstanding arrears. In the 
same time huge monetary emissions caused hyperinflation (percentage change in end-year 
consumer prices amounted about 7488% in 1993 and 6474% in 1994). 
In 1994 government initiated the process of intensive system transformation based 
on, in general terms, a transition to a market economy and involved economic 
liberalization accompanied by the privatization of the state-owned sector. In 1995 
national currency – lari (GEL) was introduced and a number of reforms were 
implemented to stabilize and liberalize the Georgian economy. Subsequent 
macroeconomic reforms aimed at strengthening the budget, enforcing national currency 
stability, reducing inflation rate and ensuring economic growth. 
In the following years significant progress has been achieved in establishing 
macroeconomic stability. Inflation has sharply fallen and reached the level of 10.9% in 
1999. After a massive output decline, real GDP started to increase, showed solid growth 
in 1996 and 1997 (11,2% and 10,8%, respectively) and stabilized at the level of about 
3% in 1998 and 1999. Deficit of the state budget decreased from 6,8% of GDP in 1996 
to 3,7% of GDP in 1999 (3,9% of GDP in 1998). 
Reforms of tax legislation, and as a result, improvement of the tax base played 
a substantial role in realization of tax and fiscal program. However, notwithstanding the 
rate of improvement in budgetary revenue collection, there are still serious difficulties. 
The main reasons for budget revenues shortfall are: The shadow economy, tax evasion, 
low level of registration, as well as the poor financial conditions of enterprises and 
organizations. Deficit financing in Georgia is carried out mainly through loans from the 
National Bank of Georgia (by direct borrowing) and loans from abroad (mainly from 
international organizations). We have to note that the credits from NBG are critical for 
financing the deficit of the state budget. In particular, in 1996 about 73% of the budget 
deficit (5,2% of GDP) has been financed by NBG. In subsequent years budgetary 
revenues from NBG decreased but still remain significant (about 3,0%, 1,4% and 2,7% 
of GDP, respectively) [1]. On the other hand in the period considered the monetary 
6 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 
[1] See Section 4.
policy of the National Bank of Georgia, aimed to achieve economic growth with minimal 
inflation, was rather strict. The analysis aims to explain from which sources NBG is able 
to finance so big part of the budget deficit and what could be the long run consequences 
of such practices for the economy. 
Theoretical focus of the paper is on adequacy of different concepts of the measuring 
the contribution of seigniorage to the financing budget deficit. For example, applying the 
common concept of monetary seigniorage, which is defined as the change in a country's 
base money stock deflated by the general price level, the Georgian government should 
have received 51,6 million GEL in 1996, while in fact it received almost four times more, 
i.e., 195,8 million GEL. Similar differences can be found in all other years of the analyzed 
period. Therefore, in theoretical context the analysis intends to show that if the portfolios 
of actual central banks are diversified between government debt and non government 
debt, the monetary seigniorage provides no information about the flow of seigniorage to 
the budget. 
2. Seigniorage Revenues 
A number of authors consider seigniorage revenues as an important source of 
government finance [see, e.g., Drazen, 1989; and Gross, 1993]. Recent research shows 
that the seigniorage in several Western European countries as a share of GDP varies 
between 2 and 4% [Horrendorf, 1997]. The importance of seigniorage as a revenue 
instrument in transition economies has been also frequently analyzed [see, for example, 
Hochreiter, Rovelli and Winckler, 1996; Budina, 1997; Cukrowski and Janecki, 1998; 
Cukrowski and Stavrev, 1999, 2000]. The results indicate that the experiences in 
collecting seigniorage revenue differ across countries and revenues from the creation of 
monetary base and execution of monetary policy play very different budgetary roles in 
countries in the process of transition to market economy. 
As mentioned in the introduction in subsequent years significant part of the budget 
deficit has been financed by National Bank of Georgia, however, without corresponding 
growth in the monetary base. This phenomenon cannot be easily explained by the 
concept of monetary seigniorage (frequently used in the economic literature), and 
requires deeper analysis of the sources of central bank revenues. 
In the analysis which follows we adopt the concept of gross seigniorage, proposed by 
Klein and Neumann, (1990) and Neumann (1996), which encompasses most of other 
commonly used concepts of seigniorage [see Neumann, 1996]. In particular, we define 
7 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ...
total gross seigniorage as the real gross resource flow to the government sector associated 
with base money creation [Neumann, 1996]. Formally, we specify total gross seigniorage 
s as 
(1) 
where sM is monetary seigniorage defined as a change in base money stock DM deflated 
by the general price level p: 
(2) 
D M 
s M = = DM 
(m denotes real balances); 
sI describes net interest revenues on the stock of non-government debt 
(3) 
i A i A 
AP and AF denote a private sector debt and foreign debt, respectively (iP and iF stand for 
corresponding nominal interest rates); 
sOP describes net revenues from the central bank operations 
(4) 
G 
G denotes revenue from central bank's operations; 
sNI denotes net reduction of the non-government debt by the central bank 
(5) 
A A 
DAP and DAF denote changes in domestic private sector debt and foreign debt, 
respectively; 
Monetary seigniorage (2) measures the actual wealth transfer which the private 
sector has to make in order to receive base money in the amount of DM from the central 
bank. Expression (3) describes the flow of interest revenue on the stock of non-government 
debt that the central bank bought in the past in exchange for non-interest 
bearing base money (the debt service on the central bank's stock of government debt is 
not included here because it is merely an inside transaction between the government and 
the central bank). Expression (4) describes seigniorage from realized gains from assets 
trading (central bank's financial operations). Expression (5) describes central bank 
revenues from the reduction of the non governmental debt hold by the central bank. It 
8 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 
s = sM + sI + sOP + sNI 
m 
p M 
p 
s 
P P F F 
I = + 
p 
sOP = 
p 
s 
P F 
NI = - D +D
have to mentioned that in developed countries net investment in domestic private and 
foreign debt is typically a positive value, and, consequently, it is considered as an use of 
the seigniorage [see e.g., Neumann, 1996]. However, in the case of NBG (see Section 4) 
the non government debt is being reduced from year to year, and to large extent 
corresponding revenues are used to finance budget deficit. Consequently, in the present 
analysis the central bank revenues from the reduction of the non governmental debt are 
considered as the source of the seigniorage rather than an use. 
3. Distribution of Seigniorage Revenues 
Most empirical literature presents a proxy for actual seigniorage flow to the 
government based on two implicit assumptions: (1) the government receives the 
seigniorage revenues regardless of the legal and institutional regulations governing the 
relationship between the government and central bank; (2) the amount of seigniorage 
revenue transferred to the government does not depend on the specific ways and means 
in which the creation of seigniorage is induced by the central bank. This is a simplification 
which does not take into account the cost of money production and the existence of the 
central bank in general. Note that the cost of the central bank could be significant [Klein 
and Neumann, 1990] show that in the period 1974–1987, about 16.9% of German 
monetary seigniorage was used to cover the Bundesbank’s operating costs). 
A more precise analysis presented by Neumann (1996) shows that total seigniorage 
is used for 
– covering the cost of money production and central bank operation sC, 
– replacement investment to make up for the exchange rate induced loss of assets (in 
terms of domestic currency) sRI, 
– budget finance sG, 
– the increase of the central bank capital and reserves (or is transferred to the third 
parties) sO. 
Thus, 
(6) 
where 
(7) 
9 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... 
s = sC + sRI + sG + sO 
C C 
p 
s 
Coin CB 
C = +
CCoin denotes the cost of coinage, and CCB stands for the central bank's cost of printing 
notes and maintaining operations; 
(8) 
eA 
L 
L denotes a book loss (defined as a positive number), and e is an exchange rate; 
(9) 
A (R i A ) 
AG denotes government debt and RG appropriated profit; 
(10) 
R 
RO denotes profit transferred to the third parties or used for reserves and capital 
accumulation. 
Part of the seigniorage transferred to the central government budget sG (specified by 
expression (9)) is called fiscal seigniorage [see Neumann, 1996]. In general, there should 
be two additional terms in the numerator of the expression (9): RCoin – revenue from 
coinage (in the case where the government has rights to issue coins as in Germany, for 
example); and TB – taxes on central bank's property and income (when the central bank 
has to pay taxes on property and income as, for instance, in Japan). In the case of Georgia 
the government receives fiscal seigniorage through: (1) net borrowing from the central 
ba (DAG), and (2) appropriation of the central bank's profit, net of interest payments on 
the central bank's stock of government debt (RG-iGAG). Thus, fiscal seigniorage is fully 
determined by expression (9). 
4. Empirical Analysis 
The empirical analysis of sources and uses of seigniorage revenues presented in this 
section is based on data from the central bank balance sheets and its statements of 
income and expenditures and profit distribution (the main data sources are the Annual 
Reports of National Bank of Georgia for the years 1996,1997,1998,1999) . Since data for 
1995 (and before 1995) are unaudited (and rather not consistent) the sample period 
selected covers years 1996–1999. All the data are reported annually and denoted in the 
analysis which follows by subscript t. 
10 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 
ep 
p 
s 
F 
RI = = - D 
p 
s 
G G G G 
G = D + - 
, 
p 
s 
O 
O =
According to the Section 3 the total seigniorage st is allocated to the following uses: 
(11) 
C is computed as 
where the cost seigniorage st 
(12) 
& 
s = + 
C C 
CCB – costs of maintaining operations of central bank, 
CCo&Bn – costs of coinage and printing banknotes, 
replacement seigniorage st 
RI is determined as 
(13) 
F 
t 1 
L 
RI t = t 
= -D - 
e p 
G is computed as 
fiscal seigniorage st 
(14) 
s = - D + 
A (R i A ) 
and the increase of the central bank capital and reserves st 
G is determined as 
(15) 
s = - - 
(R i A ) 
where Pt denotes the total profit of the central bank in the period considered. 
On the other hand, the total seigniorage st is the sum of the following sources: 
(16) 
where the monetary seigniorage st 
M is computed as 
(17) 
s = D 
M 
M t 
t 
seigniorage revenue from the stock of interest-earning foreign and domestic private 
assets st 
I is determined as 
(18) 
s = - 
IR IE 
t t It 
p 
where IRt and IEt correspond to interest revenues and interest expenditures, 
respectively; 
11 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... 
O 
t 
G 
t 
RI 
t 
C 
st = st + s + s + s 
t 
CB 
t 
Co Bn 
C t 
t p 
t 1 t 
t 
A 
e 
p 
s 
- 
t 
G 
t 
G 
t 
G 
t 
G 
G t 
t p 
P 
t 
G 
t 
G 
t 
G 
O t t 
t p 
NI 
t 
OP 
t 
It 
M 
st = st + s + s + s 
pt 
t
and seigniorage revenue from central bank's operations st 
OP is computed as 
(19) 
s = - 
RE IR 
OP t t 
t p 
t 
where REt denotes the total revenue of the central bank from assets trading. 
Finally, the investment seigniorage st 
NI is computed as a residual, i.e., 
(20) 
NI 
st = s - s + s + s 
( OP ) 
t 
It 
M 
t t 
In Table 1, the sources and uses of seigniorage for the overall sample period 
1996–1999 are presented in GEL (all flows are expressed in 1996 prices). 
The year by year developments of the sources of total gross seigniorage as a fraction 
of GDP are presented in Figure 1. The distribution of the total gross seigniorage in 
subsequent years as a fraction of GDP is presented in Figure 2. 
As shown in Figure 2, in the whole period considered revenues from NBG were 
significantly used for government purposes. Fiscal seigniorage in the considered period 
amounted about 5,2% of GDP in 1996, 3% in 1997, 1,4% in 1998 and 2,7% of GDP in 
1999. Reduction of the non government debt hold by NBG was the main source of the 
budgetary revenue from the central bank (Figure 3) [2]. In 1996 about 70% of the 
budgetary revenues from central bank was financed by the decrease in non government 
debt hold by NBG. In 1998 NBG used resources from the reduction of the domestic 
private sector and foreign debt not only to increase credit to the government but also to 
cover other losses (in 1998 the decrease in non government debt hold by NBG amounted 
exceeded the budgetary revenues from central bank by 15%). 
It is worth mentioning that changes in fiscal seigniorage in Georgia are not closely 
correlated with changes in the monetary base, and, consequently with the monetary 
seigniorage (Figure 4). Since total seigniorage is used to cover all central bank expenses 
it usually overestimates flow of the resources from the central bank to the budget (Figure 
5). Finally, we would like to stress that there is no direct correlation between yearly 
inflation rates and neither corresponding values of fiscal seigniorage nor monetary 
seigniorage (see Figure 6) [3]. 
12 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 
[2] It has to be mentioned that the reduction in the non government debt has been estimated as a residual, 
and consequently, it accommodates all possible errors in the data used. Nevertheless, we believe that the 
numbers presented are significant enough to represent an actual trend. 
[3] Since there are only a few observations in the analysed period (to few for proper econometric analysis), 
the figure presented gives just a hint, and does not pretend for anything more.
13 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... 
Table 1. Sources and Uses of Seigniorage in Georgia (in 1996 prices) 
1996 1997 1998 1999 
Million of GEL 
Total S216.6 135.4 178 172.3 
t Sources 
Monetary SM 51.6 71.3 6.7 55.7 
t 
Interest Revenues St 
I 11.7 32.9 43.1 51.8 
Revenues from CB 
operations 
St 
OP 13.6 11.8 10.5 8.7 
Revenues from 
disinvestment 
St 
NI 138.3 21.0 49.2 63.1 
Uses 
Costs St 
C 19.7 6.1 16.7 20.1 
Replacement for 
exchange rate loss 
St 
RI -1.4 1.6 99.1 7.0 
Reserves and 
Capital 
St 
O 1.0 3.4 -68.5 33.4 
Fiscal St 
G 195.8 125.8 62.1 118.8 
Percent of total 
Sources 
Monetary St 
M 23.8% 52.7% 3.8% 32.3% 
Interest Revenues St 
I 5.4% 24.3% 24.2% 30.1% 
Revenues from 
CB operations 
St 
OP 6.3% 8.7% 5.9% 5.0% 
Revenues from 
disinvestment 
St 
NI 63.9% 15.5% 27.6% 36.6% 
Uses 
Costs St 
C 9.1% 4.5% 9.4% 11.2% 
Replacement for 
exchange rate loss St 
RI 
-0.6% 1.1% 55.7% 3.9% 
Reserves and 
Capital 
St 
O 0.5% 2.51% -38.5% 19.4% 
Fiscal St 
G 90.4% 92.9% 34.9% 68.9%
14 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 
Figure 1. Developments of the Sources of Total Gross Seigniorage as a Fraction of GDP 
4.0 
3.5 
3.0 
2.5 
2.0 
1.5 
1.0 
0.5 
0.0 
1996 1997 1998 1999 
% of GDP 
Monetary seigniorage 
Interest seigniorage 
Seigniorage from realizes gains from assets trading 
Revenues from the reduction of the non government debt hold 
by the central bank 
Figure 2. The Distribution of the Total Gross Seigniorage as a Fraction of GDP 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
-1 
1996 1997 1998 1999 
% of GDP 
Replacement seigniorage 
Cost seigniorage 
Fiscal seigniorage
15 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... 
Figure 3. Revenues from the Reduction of the Non Government Debt Hold by NBG and 
Fiscal Seigniorage as a Fraction of GDP 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
1996 1997 1998 1999 
% of GDP 
Reduction in non government debt hold by CB 
Fiscal seigniorage 
Figure 4. Monetary and Fiscal Seigniorage as a Fraction of GDP 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
1996 1997 1998 1999 
% of GDP 
Monetary seigniorage Fiscal seigniorage
16 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 
Figure 5. Total and Fiscal Seigniorage as a Fraction of GDP 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
1996 1997 1998 1999 
% of GDP 
Total seigniorage Fiscal seigniorage 
Figure 6. Relationship between Yearly Inflation Rate and Fiscal Seigniorage and 
15 
14 
13 
12 
11 
10 
9 
8 
7 
Inflation (%) 
15 
14 
13 
12 
11 
10 
9 
8 
7 
0.0 0.2 
Fiscal seigniorage (% of GDP) 
Monetary seigniorage (% of GDP) 
Inflation (%) 
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
17 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... 
5. Macroeconomic Comment 
According to official documents of the National Bank of Georgia the main target of 
NBG in the considered period was to ameliorate macroeconomic imbalances, and to 
achieve economic growth with minimal inflation and an optimal level of the exchange 
rate. As a result the monetary policy of NBG was very strict. In accordance with these 
targets money supply grew with a simultaneous reduction in net international assets, 
growth in net domestic assets (in 1998 and 1999), and extensive lending to the 
government. 
As a result of very tight monetary policy, in last few years the National Bank of 
Georgia has mainly been supplying money through direct credits to the government and 
very rarely played a role of a lender of last resort. In 1998, out of the total credits of 294,1 
million GEL 97,6% represented credits to the government and only 2,4% went to 
commercial banks. In 1999 the total credits to commercial banks were even lower (i.e., 
in 1999 of 147,2 million GEL total credit, 146,7 million GEL (99,7%) was issued to the 
government, and only 0,5 million GEL (0,3%) to commercial banks). On the other hand 
the minimum reserve requirement increased in 1998 from 12% to 16%. In 1999 the 
stock of net claims on the government and its growth exceeded corresponding targets 
defined by IMF by 101,4 million GEL and 101,3 million GEL respectively. 
As mentioned above, although the main policy instrument used by the NBG was 
direct lending to the government this practice did not have much influence on the yearly 
inflation. This is because, only part of the transfers from the National Bank of Georgia to 
the government resulted from relatively restricted money supply. Taking into account 
that the NBG’s flow balance sheet can be written as 
(21) 
F 
DAt +DA +DA +DA = DM +DK 
t t 
fixed 
t 
G 
t 
P 
t 
where the left hand sums the changes in net foreign assets, in loans to the private sector, 
loans to the government (net of government deposits) and fixed assets of NBG; the right 
hand side sums changes in the monetary base and the NBG total capital accounts; 
and presented as in Table 2, it becomes clear that the other part of an extensive 
credits to government was financed by the reduction in of net assets of NBG (mainly net 
international assets).
18 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 
Table 2. Flow Balance Sheet of National Bank of Georgia for the Period 1996–1999 
(in million GEL) 
1996 1997 1998 1999 
Change in net foreign assets -141,10 -12,82 -233,47 -45,69 
+ 
Change in loans to the private sector -0,99 -27,39 39,73 40,97 
+ 
Change in loans to the government (net of 
194,87 131,22 172,14 65,70 
government deposits) 
+ 
Change in fixed assets of NBG 3,77 0,99 4,73 9,41 
= 
Change in monetary base 51,61 76,96 7,47 70,39 
+ 
Change in capital and reserves 4,93 15,05 -24,34 0,00 
The shares of these two sources in the financing of the budget deficit in the 
subsequent years of the period considered are presented in Table 3 (the monetary 
seigniorage and the revenues from the reduction of net assets are definitely the main 
sources of the financing of the budget deficit, moreover, in some years, e.g., 1998 and 
1999, revenues from these sources have been used for the financing of other expenses 
of NBG). 
Table 3. The Shares of the Monetary Seigniorage and Revenues from the Reduction of 
Net Assets in the Financing of the Budget Deficit 
1996 1997 1998 1999 
Deficit of the state budget (% of GDP) 6,8% 6,1% 3,9% 3,7% 
Fiscal seigniorage (in % of GDP) 5,2% 3,0% 1,4% 2,7% 
Share of NBG in financing budget deficit 76% 49% 36% 72% 
Monetary seigniorage as a percentage of 
fiscal seigniorage 
26% 57% 11% 46% 
Share of the revenues from the reduction of 
net assets as a percentage of fiscal 
seigniorage 
70% 16% 104% 100%
We have to stress that, the extended financing of the deficit of the state budget by 
the NBG is still costly. It does not result in higher inflation (because of restricted money 
supply), but it mainly reduces net assets of the National Bank of Georgia. Since the stock 
of international and private domestic assets hold by NBG is limited, in long run the only 
way how NBG can finance the deficit of the state budget to the similar extend is to use 
monetary seigniorage. This, however, will have to be accompanied by significant growth 
of monetary base and will cause a danger of large inflation. 
The key reform challenge is therefore to reduce the size of the deficit of the state 
budget (see Table 3) caused by extremely low tax revenues (with about 7,4% of GDP in 
1999 and 6,9% of GDP in 1998 tax revenues in Georgia are among the lowest in all 
transition economies). Thus, improving tax compliance will be the key to overcoming 
budgetary crisis and ensure successful continuation of macroeconomic stabilization. The 
major challenge will be to improve tax system to balance the decline in profit and 
turnover taxes from the contracting state sector with increased revenues from other 
sources, such as VAT and personal income tax. 
Delay in the implementation of the tax reform, accompanied with the extended 
financing of the budget deficit by the National Bank of Georgia, sooner or later will result 
in significant increase of monetary base and destabilization of the economy. 
6. Concluding Remarks 
This paper has presented and applied new insights from the seigniorage literature to 
the problem of financing the budget deficit in Georgia through seigniorage revenues 
during the process of market reforms, i.e., in the period 1996–1999. In particular, 
contrary to other empirical studies we have not relied on the simple concept of monetary 
seigniorage, which measures the flow of the additional monetary base the government 
can issue, but instead we have used (1) the new concept of total gross seigniorage which 
measures the total flow to the government sector and (2) fiscal seigniorage which 
measures the portion of seigniorage received for budget finance. 
An empirical analysis of sources of seigniorage revenues in Georgia for the period 
1996–1999 has revealed that the monetary authorities' interest earnings on non-government 
debt (interest revenues) and revenues from central bank operations are 
important sources of total seigniorage revenues, and therefore, the conventional concept 
of monetary seigniorage inadequately measures the total flow of seigniorage. In particular, 
the results show that an estimation of the total seigniorage by monetary seigniorage 
19 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ...
understates the total flow of seigniorage revenues. At the same time, the results indicate 
that most of the budgetary revenues from NBG in the considered period have been 
financed by the reduction of the private sector debt, monetary seigniorage should not be 
used a proxy for the total flow to the government sector. 
Moreover, the research presented shows that the average flow of seigniorage 
revenues to the budget was higher than it is usually the case in other countries in 
transition. Thus it confirms the common belief that in several transitional economies 
revenues from central bank seigniorage still play a significant budgetary role. We have to 
stress, however, that in Georgia in the period considered the flow of the resources from 
the central bank to the budget was not connected with inflationary monetary emissions. 
Instead most budgetary revenues from NBG have been financed by significant reduction 
of net international and private domestic assets. Since such practices are surely not 
sustainable, the problem of financing budget deficit has to be realized by central bank and 
fiscal authorities. Since the stock international and private domestic assets hold by 
National Bank of Georgia is limited, in long run NBG can finance the deficit of the state 
budget only using monetary seigniorage. This, however, will be accompanied by 
significant growth of monetary base and large inflation. 
Finally, it is important to stress that the results presented in this paper imply 
a weakening of the link between inflation and seigniorage. In particular, much like Klein 
and Neumann (1990), we would like to emphasize that the increase in a yearly change of 
monetary base (and a country's inflation rate) does not automatically imply higher fiscal 
seigniorage revenues. Nor (as it has been shown in the case of Georgia) does the inverse 
necessarily hold, i.e., a decrease in a yearly change of monetary base (associated with the 
decrease in the rate of inflation) does not automatically imply smaller seigniorage 
revenues for budget deficit financing. The increase in the scope of temporary budget 
deficit financing can be achieved by the relevant central bank policy and increasing central 
bank efficiency instead of by raising the rate of inflation [4]. However, an analysis of the 
efficiency of legal arrangements and operational procedures of the National Bank of 
Georgia has been left for further research. 
20 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 
[4] Klein and Neumann (1990) show that a central bank with a sufficient extent of operational 
independence might be able to influence the amount of seigniorage acquiring to the government even at 
unchanged rates of money growth.
21 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... 
Appendix. Data Sources 
The main sources of data used for the calculations of the total gross seigniorage and 
its components are: (1) National Bank of Georgia Balance Sheet and (2) the National Bank 
of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditure. The simplified forms of these two 
documents (for 1996–1999) are presented in Table A1 and Table A2 below. A short 
description follows of how Table A3 (containing all the data used for the computation of 
the total gross seigniorage and its components) is constructed.
22 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 
Table A1. National Bank of Georgia Balance Sheet as of December 31, 1995,1996,1997,1998,1999 (GEL) 
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 
ASSETS 
Gold and foreign currency assets 
Gold 883209 875959 699292 956925 1038400 
IMF related assets 204543817 203344161 196512495 149934576 411233875 
Other foreign assets 243773088 249263150 308791301 292575809 327469977 
Domestic currency assets 
Loans to the Government 112445213 296718389 437139344 541523103 646004776 
Loans and deposits with banks 2329910 13337196 3240939 5139277 479316 
Government Debt Securities 70337352 28080133 
Other assets 43248352 30683838 45069089 56050853 98039745 
Fixed assets 3678774 7448186 8436258 13161869 22576651 
Total assets 610902363 801670879 999888718 1129679764 1534922873
23 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... 
Table A1. National Bank of Georgia Balance Sheet as of December 31, 1995,1996,1997,1998,1999 (GEL) 
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 
LIABILITIES 
Foreign currency liabilities 
Banks 4747144 2361746 551572 8311198 5270476 
Loans and liabilities to IMF 346107191 449664432 530367308 688859655 1014616990 
Other 44986117 89194451 75639902 80318501 99566347 
Domestic currency liabilities 
Notes and coins in circulation 173965907 215593128 298266914 273346099 350659346 
Deposits 
Deposits of the Government 13668255 3075603 12271780 14853121 11376937 
Deposits of Banks 18101200 23385650 22511377 37748541 48700134 
Deposits of other 2481649 7184628 2340555 19494613 1623313 
Other liabilities 1187919 625427 32302472 5448036 1809330 
Total liabilities 605245382 791085065 974251880 1128379764 1533622873 
Capital and Reserves 5656981 10585814 25636838 1300000 1300000 
Total 
Liabilities, Capital and Reserves 610902363 801670879 999888718 1129679764 1534922873
24 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 
Table A2. National Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures as of December 31, 1995,1996,1997,1998, 
1999 (GEL) 
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 
REVENUES 
Foreign currency related revenues 6022954 11755776 11980987 11146077 10219735 
Domestic revenue interest 3947563 19288706 43812550 59624297 80681072 
Domestic revenues other 581862 1797588 713802 582475 744955 
Total Revenues 10552379 32842070 56507339 71352849 91645762 
EXPENSES 
Interest and other 5886227 7614648 8358407 11502697 15153468 
Bad and doubtful loan expenses 407478 13934080 8271136 9273459 
Cost of notes and coin production 1391951 41359 
Other expenses 2333905 4408851 6608187 10422566 16103569 
Total operating expenses 8627610 27349530 14966594 30196399 40571855 
Operating profit (in terms of NBG) 1924769 5492540 41540745 41156450 51073907 
Loses caused by foreign exchange 
rate variability -110601399 -8816688 
Operating profit (in terms of IAS) 1924769 5492540 41540745 -69444949 42257219 
APPROPRIATIONS AND TRANSFERS TO/FROM 
RESERVES 
Transfer to the general reserve -570900 -152676 -3654123 5000000 
Transfer to the government -962777 -4500000 -37886622 -7000000 
Retained loss/(profit) 71444949 -42257219 
Transfer to capital -391092 -839864 
Total appropriations and transfers (to)/from 
Reserves -1924769 -5492540 -41540745 69444949 -42257219
25 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... 
Table A3. Data Used for the Computation of the Total Gross Seigniorage and its Main Components 
Year P CCB CCo&BN G R RG-iGAG IR-IE L AG DM 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 
1996 100,0 18342931 1391951 13553364 992540 4500000 11674058 1433092 293642786 51614650 
1997 107,9 6608187 0 12694789 3654123 37886622 35454143 -1732082 424867564 76955440 
1998 111,6 18693702 0 11728552 -76444949 7000000 48121600 -110601399 456332630 7470407 
1999 126,4 25377028 41359 10964690 42257219 0 65527604 -8816688 606547706 70393540 
Notes: 
P – general price level index (1996 = base year) 
CCB – costs of maintaining operations (in GEL), 
CCo&Bn – costs of printing banknotes (in GEL), 
G – revenue from central bank's operations (in GEL), 
R – profit transfer to increase reserves and capital (in GEL) 
(RG-iGAG) – net profit distributed to the government (in GEL), 
(IR-IE) – net interest revenues reported (in GEL), 
L – book gain (loss) due to exchange rate fluctuation (in GEL), 
AG – government debt to NBG (in GEL), 
DM – change in the monetary base (in GEL).
Sources 
CCB (costs of maintaining operations) computed base on the data presented in the 
National Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (see Table A2, the 
items: "Bad and doubtful loan expenses" + "Other expenses"). 
CCo&BN (cost of printing banknotes and making coins) is presented in the National 
Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (see Table A2, the item: "Cost 
of notes and coin production"). 
G (revenue from central bank's operations) presented in the National Bank of Georgia 
Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (see Table A2, the items: "Foreign currency 
related revenues" + "Domestic revenues other"). 
R (profit transfer to increase reserves and capital) reported in the National Bank of 
Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (see Table A2, the item: "Transfer to the 
general reserve" + "Transfer to the capital"). 
RG-iGAG (net profit distributed from central bank to the government) reported in the 
National Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (see Table A2, the 
item: "Transfer to the government"). 
IR-IE (net interest revenues of the National Bank of Georgia) determined as 
a difference between interest revenues (Table A2, the item "Domestic revenue interest") 
and interest expenditures (Table A2, the item "Interest and other"). 
L (book gain/loss) due to exchange rate fluctuation reported in the National Bank of 
Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (Table A2, the item "Loses caused by 
foreign exchange rate variability") 
AG (government debt held by the National Bank of Georgia) is determined as the sum 
of loans to general government (Table A1, the item "Loans to the Government") minus 
deposit of general government (Table A1, the item "Deposits of the Government") (in the 
years 1998 and 1999 minus stock of government debt securities (Table A1, item 
"Government Debt Securities") that have been borrowed to NBG in 1998 and partially 
returned in 1999). 
DM (the change in the monetary base). Monetary base is defined as the sum of 
currency in circulation and the deposits of commercial banks and others (non 
governmental) and is determined based on the National Bank of Georgia Balance Sheet 
(Table A1, the items "Notes and coins in circulation"+"Deposits of Banks"+"Deposits of 
other"). 
26 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski
References 
Budina N. (1997). Essays on Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Eastern 
Europe. Tinbergen Institute Research Series 145, University of Amsterdam. 
Cukrowski J., J. Janecki (1998). Financing Budget Deficits by Seigniorage: the Case of 
Poland 1990–1997. Studies and Analyses No. 155, Center for Social and Economic 
Research (CASE), Warsaw 1998, pp. 30. 
Cukrowski J., E. Stavrev (2000). Central Bank Seigniorage in the Czech Republic, 
Applied Economic Letters (in press). 
Cukrowski J., E. Stavrev (1999). Seigniorage and Fiscal Seigniorage in the Czech 
Republic" Prague Economic Papers, No.4, 1999, pp.277–287. 
Drazen A. (1989). Capital Controls and Seigniorage in an Open Economy. [in:] M. de 
Cecco and A. Giovannini (eds.), A European Central Bank? Perspectives on Monetary 
Unification After Ten Years of the EMS, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 
Hochreinter E., R. Rovelli, G. Winckler (1996). Central Banks and Seigniorage: a 
Study of Three Economies in Transition. European Economic Review (Papers and 
Proceedings), 40, pp. 629–643. 
Gross D. (1997). Seigniorage and EMU. European Journal of Political Economy, 9, 
581–601. 
Horrendorf B. (1997). Time Consistent Collection of Optimal Seigniorage: a Unifying 
Framework. Journal of Economic Surveys, 11:1, pp. 1–41. 
Klein M., M.J.M. Neumann (1990). Seigniorage: What Is It and Who Gets It? 
Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 126, pp. 205–221. 
Neumann M.J.M. (1996). A Comparative Study of Seigniorage: Japan and Germany. 
Bank of Japan Monetary and Economic Studies, 14:1, pp. 104–142. 
27 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ...
28 
Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 
196 Alina Kudina, An Approach to Forecasting Ukrainian GDP from the Supply Side 
197 Artur Radziwi³³, Perspektywy zró¿nicowania regionalnego bezrobocia w Polsce 
198 Ìàðåê Äîìáðîâñêè, Ïîñëåäñòâèÿ ðîññèéñêîãî ôèíàíñîâîãî êðèçèñà äëÿ 
ñîñåäíèõ ñòðàí 
200 Lubomira Anastassova, Institutional Arrangements of Currency Boards – 
Comparative Macroeconomic Analysis 
201 Stanis³awa Golinowska, Ochrona socjalna bezrobotnych w Polsce oraz w innych 
krajach 
203 Ma³gorzata Jakubiak, Design and Operation of Existing Currency Board 
Arrangements 
204 Preslava Kovatchevska, The Banking and Currency Crises in Bulgaria: 1996–1997 
205 Marek Jarociñski, Moldova in 1995–1999: Macroeconomic and Monetary 
Consequences of Fiscal Imbalances 
206 Rafa³ Antczak, Stanislav Bogdankiewich, Pavel Daneiko, Krzysztof Po³omski, 
Vladymir Usowski: Impact of the Russian Crisis on the Belarussian Economy 
207 Yurij Kuz'myn, Ukraine's Foreign Trade Developments and Forecasts 
208 Magdalena Tomczyñska, Early Indicators of Currency Crises. Review of some 
Literature 
209 Monika B³aszkiewicz, What Factors Led to the Asian Financial Crisis: Where or 
Where Not Asian Economic Sound? 
210 Elena Jarociñska, Labour Developments in Moldova 
211 Rafa³ Antczak, Theoretical aspects of currency crises 
212 Artur Radziwi³³, Poland's Accession to the EMU 
214 ßöåê Öóêðîâñêè, Þðèé Áóøìàí, Ñåíúîðàæ è ïîñòóïëåíèÿ â áþäæåò îò 
Íàöèîíàëüíîãî áàíêà Êûðãûçêîé Ðåñïóáëèêè 
215 Jacek Cukrowski, Financing the Defict of the State Budget by National Bank 
of Georgia (1996–1999)

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CASE Network Studies and Analyses 215 - Financing the Deficit of the State Budget by National Bank of Georgia (1996-1999)

  • 1. 2 1 5 Jacek Cukrowski Financing the Deficit of the State Budget by National Bank of Georgia (1996–1999) W a r s a w , 2 0 0 0
  • 2. Materials published here have a working paper character. They can be subject to further publication. The views and opinions expressed here reflect Authors’ point of view and not necessarily those of CASE. This paper was prepared for the advisory project "Support to Economic Reform in Georgia" financed by the Open Society Institute (OSI). © CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw 2000 Graphic Design: Agnieszka Natalia Bury DTP: CeDeWu – Centrum Doradztwa i Wydawnictw “Multi-Press” sp. z o.o. ISSN 1506-1701, ISBN 83-7178-235-7 Publisher: CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research ul. Sienkiewicza 12, 00-944 Warsaw, Poland tel.: (4822) 622 66 27, 828 61 33, fax (4822) 828 60 69 e-mail: case@case.com.pl
  • 3. Contents Abstract 5 1. Introduction 6 2. Seigniorage Revenues 7 3. Distribution of Seigniorage Revenues 9 4. Empirical Analysis 10 5. Macroeconomic Comment 17 6. Concluding Remarks 19 Appendix. Data Sources 21 References 27
  • 4. Jacek Cukrowski Jacek Cukrowski (born 1960) received his M.Sc. degree in Systems Engineering in 1985, Ph.D. in Computer Science in 1990, Postgraduate Diploma in Sociology and Politics in 1993, Ph.D. in Economics in 1995. In 1997 he defended Habilitation Thesis in Economics. In 1992–1999 he worked as a researcher in the Economics Institute in the Academy of Science of the Czech Republic. Since 1998 he has been a docent of Charles University (Czech Republic), and Professor of University of Finance and Business (Poland), since 1997 with CASE Fundation. 4 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski
  • 5. Abstract In this paper the concept of total gross seigniorage is used to analyze sources of revenues of National Bank of Georgia (NBG) and their distribution in the period 1996–1999. A comprehensive framework for measuring total seigniorage and its main components is presented and estimates of seigniorage revenues (sources and uses) are computed and analyzed. It is shown that in the considered period fiscal revenues from NBG have not been extensively financed by the money supply (consequently, cannot be estimated by the monetary seigniorage), but have been mostly covered by the reduction of the non government debt hold by central bank. Since the stock of international and private domestic assets hold by National Bank of Georgia is limited, in long run NBG cannot rely on it. The only way how, in the future, NBG can finance large deficits of the state budget is to use monetary seigniorage. This, however, will have to be accompanied by significant growth of monetary base and will cause a danger of large inflation. 5 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ...
  • 6. 1. Introduction In the aftermath of the breakdown of the Soviet Union, internal armed conflict and the war in Abkhazia, during the first years of independence Georgia experienced significant economic crisis. In 1992–1993 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reduced almost by 70%. The economy shifted to the shadow sector. The government unable to collect taxes had to get external debt resulting in significant foreign outstanding arrears. In the same time huge monetary emissions caused hyperinflation (percentage change in end-year consumer prices amounted about 7488% in 1993 and 6474% in 1994). In 1994 government initiated the process of intensive system transformation based on, in general terms, a transition to a market economy and involved economic liberalization accompanied by the privatization of the state-owned sector. In 1995 national currency – lari (GEL) was introduced and a number of reforms were implemented to stabilize and liberalize the Georgian economy. Subsequent macroeconomic reforms aimed at strengthening the budget, enforcing national currency stability, reducing inflation rate and ensuring economic growth. In the following years significant progress has been achieved in establishing macroeconomic stability. Inflation has sharply fallen and reached the level of 10.9% in 1999. After a massive output decline, real GDP started to increase, showed solid growth in 1996 and 1997 (11,2% and 10,8%, respectively) and stabilized at the level of about 3% in 1998 and 1999. Deficit of the state budget decreased from 6,8% of GDP in 1996 to 3,7% of GDP in 1999 (3,9% of GDP in 1998). Reforms of tax legislation, and as a result, improvement of the tax base played a substantial role in realization of tax and fiscal program. However, notwithstanding the rate of improvement in budgetary revenue collection, there are still serious difficulties. The main reasons for budget revenues shortfall are: The shadow economy, tax evasion, low level of registration, as well as the poor financial conditions of enterprises and organizations. Deficit financing in Georgia is carried out mainly through loans from the National Bank of Georgia (by direct borrowing) and loans from abroad (mainly from international organizations). We have to note that the credits from NBG are critical for financing the deficit of the state budget. In particular, in 1996 about 73% of the budget deficit (5,2% of GDP) has been financed by NBG. In subsequent years budgetary revenues from NBG decreased but still remain significant (about 3,0%, 1,4% and 2,7% of GDP, respectively) [1]. On the other hand in the period considered the monetary 6 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski [1] See Section 4.
  • 7. policy of the National Bank of Georgia, aimed to achieve economic growth with minimal inflation, was rather strict. The analysis aims to explain from which sources NBG is able to finance so big part of the budget deficit and what could be the long run consequences of such practices for the economy. Theoretical focus of the paper is on adequacy of different concepts of the measuring the contribution of seigniorage to the financing budget deficit. For example, applying the common concept of monetary seigniorage, which is defined as the change in a country's base money stock deflated by the general price level, the Georgian government should have received 51,6 million GEL in 1996, while in fact it received almost four times more, i.e., 195,8 million GEL. Similar differences can be found in all other years of the analyzed period. Therefore, in theoretical context the analysis intends to show that if the portfolios of actual central banks are diversified between government debt and non government debt, the monetary seigniorage provides no information about the flow of seigniorage to the budget. 2. Seigniorage Revenues A number of authors consider seigniorage revenues as an important source of government finance [see, e.g., Drazen, 1989; and Gross, 1993]. Recent research shows that the seigniorage in several Western European countries as a share of GDP varies between 2 and 4% [Horrendorf, 1997]. The importance of seigniorage as a revenue instrument in transition economies has been also frequently analyzed [see, for example, Hochreiter, Rovelli and Winckler, 1996; Budina, 1997; Cukrowski and Janecki, 1998; Cukrowski and Stavrev, 1999, 2000]. The results indicate that the experiences in collecting seigniorage revenue differ across countries and revenues from the creation of monetary base and execution of monetary policy play very different budgetary roles in countries in the process of transition to market economy. As mentioned in the introduction in subsequent years significant part of the budget deficit has been financed by National Bank of Georgia, however, without corresponding growth in the monetary base. This phenomenon cannot be easily explained by the concept of monetary seigniorage (frequently used in the economic literature), and requires deeper analysis of the sources of central bank revenues. In the analysis which follows we adopt the concept of gross seigniorage, proposed by Klein and Neumann, (1990) and Neumann (1996), which encompasses most of other commonly used concepts of seigniorage [see Neumann, 1996]. In particular, we define 7 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ...
  • 8. total gross seigniorage as the real gross resource flow to the government sector associated with base money creation [Neumann, 1996]. Formally, we specify total gross seigniorage s as (1) where sM is monetary seigniorage defined as a change in base money stock DM deflated by the general price level p: (2) D M s M = = DM (m denotes real balances); sI describes net interest revenues on the stock of non-government debt (3) i A i A AP and AF denote a private sector debt and foreign debt, respectively (iP and iF stand for corresponding nominal interest rates); sOP describes net revenues from the central bank operations (4) G G denotes revenue from central bank's operations; sNI denotes net reduction of the non-government debt by the central bank (5) A A DAP and DAF denote changes in domestic private sector debt and foreign debt, respectively; Monetary seigniorage (2) measures the actual wealth transfer which the private sector has to make in order to receive base money in the amount of DM from the central bank. Expression (3) describes the flow of interest revenue on the stock of non-government debt that the central bank bought in the past in exchange for non-interest bearing base money (the debt service on the central bank's stock of government debt is not included here because it is merely an inside transaction between the government and the central bank). Expression (4) describes seigniorage from realized gains from assets trading (central bank's financial operations). Expression (5) describes central bank revenues from the reduction of the non governmental debt hold by the central bank. It 8 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski s = sM + sI + sOP + sNI m p M p s P P F F I = + p sOP = p s P F NI = - D +D
  • 9. have to mentioned that in developed countries net investment in domestic private and foreign debt is typically a positive value, and, consequently, it is considered as an use of the seigniorage [see e.g., Neumann, 1996]. However, in the case of NBG (see Section 4) the non government debt is being reduced from year to year, and to large extent corresponding revenues are used to finance budget deficit. Consequently, in the present analysis the central bank revenues from the reduction of the non governmental debt are considered as the source of the seigniorage rather than an use. 3. Distribution of Seigniorage Revenues Most empirical literature presents a proxy for actual seigniorage flow to the government based on two implicit assumptions: (1) the government receives the seigniorage revenues regardless of the legal and institutional regulations governing the relationship between the government and central bank; (2) the amount of seigniorage revenue transferred to the government does not depend on the specific ways and means in which the creation of seigniorage is induced by the central bank. This is a simplification which does not take into account the cost of money production and the existence of the central bank in general. Note that the cost of the central bank could be significant [Klein and Neumann, 1990] show that in the period 1974–1987, about 16.9% of German monetary seigniorage was used to cover the Bundesbank’s operating costs). A more precise analysis presented by Neumann (1996) shows that total seigniorage is used for – covering the cost of money production and central bank operation sC, – replacement investment to make up for the exchange rate induced loss of assets (in terms of domestic currency) sRI, – budget finance sG, – the increase of the central bank capital and reserves (or is transferred to the third parties) sO. Thus, (6) where (7) 9 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... s = sC + sRI + sG + sO C C p s Coin CB C = +
  • 10. CCoin denotes the cost of coinage, and CCB stands for the central bank's cost of printing notes and maintaining operations; (8) eA L L denotes a book loss (defined as a positive number), and e is an exchange rate; (9) A (R i A ) AG denotes government debt and RG appropriated profit; (10) R RO denotes profit transferred to the third parties or used for reserves and capital accumulation. Part of the seigniorage transferred to the central government budget sG (specified by expression (9)) is called fiscal seigniorage [see Neumann, 1996]. In general, there should be two additional terms in the numerator of the expression (9): RCoin – revenue from coinage (in the case where the government has rights to issue coins as in Germany, for example); and TB – taxes on central bank's property and income (when the central bank has to pay taxes on property and income as, for instance, in Japan). In the case of Georgia the government receives fiscal seigniorage through: (1) net borrowing from the central ba (DAG), and (2) appropriation of the central bank's profit, net of interest payments on the central bank's stock of government debt (RG-iGAG). Thus, fiscal seigniorage is fully determined by expression (9). 4. Empirical Analysis The empirical analysis of sources and uses of seigniorage revenues presented in this section is based on data from the central bank balance sheets and its statements of income and expenditures and profit distribution (the main data sources are the Annual Reports of National Bank of Georgia for the years 1996,1997,1998,1999) . Since data for 1995 (and before 1995) are unaudited (and rather not consistent) the sample period selected covers years 1996–1999. All the data are reported annually and denoted in the analysis which follows by subscript t. 10 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski ep p s F RI = = - D p s G G G G G = D + - , p s O O =
  • 11. According to the Section 3 the total seigniorage st is allocated to the following uses: (11) C is computed as where the cost seigniorage st (12) & s = + C C CCB – costs of maintaining operations of central bank, CCo&Bn – costs of coinage and printing banknotes, replacement seigniorage st RI is determined as (13) F t 1 L RI t = t = -D - e p G is computed as fiscal seigniorage st (14) s = - D + A (R i A ) and the increase of the central bank capital and reserves st G is determined as (15) s = - - (R i A ) where Pt denotes the total profit of the central bank in the period considered. On the other hand, the total seigniorage st is the sum of the following sources: (16) where the monetary seigniorage st M is computed as (17) s = D M M t t seigniorage revenue from the stock of interest-earning foreign and domestic private assets st I is determined as (18) s = - IR IE t t It p where IRt and IEt correspond to interest revenues and interest expenditures, respectively; 11 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... O t G t RI t C st = st + s + s + s t CB t Co Bn C t t p t 1 t t A e p s - t G t G t G t G G t t p P t G t G t G O t t t p NI t OP t It M st = st + s + s + s pt t
  • 12. and seigniorage revenue from central bank's operations st OP is computed as (19) s = - RE IR OP t t t p t where REt denotes the total revenue of the central bank from assets trading. Finally, the investment seigniorage st NI is computed as a residual, i.e., (20) NI st = s - s + s + s ( OP ) t It M t t In Table 1, the sources and uses of seigniorage for the overall sample period 1996–1999 are presented in GEL (all flows are expressed in 1996 prices). The year by year developments of the sources of total gross seigniorage as a fraction of GDP are presented in Figure 1. The distribution of the total gross seigniorage in subsequent years as a fraction of GDP is presented in Figure 2. As shown in Figure 2, in the whole period considered revenues from NBG were significantly used for government purposes. Fiscal seigniorage in the considered period amounted about 5,2% of GDP in 1996, 3% in 1997, 1,4% in 1998 and 2,7% of GDP in 1999. Reduction of the non government debt hold by NBG was the main source of the budgetary revenue from the central bank (Figure 3) [2]. In 1996 about 70% of the budgetary revenues from central bank was financed by the decrease in non government debt hold by NBG. In 1998 NBG used resources from the reduction of the domestic private sector and foreign debt not only to increase credit to the government but also to cover other losses (in 1998 the decrease in non government debt hold by NBG amounted exceeded the budgetary revenues from central bank by 15%). It is worth mentioning that changes in fiscal seigniorage in Georgia are not closely correlated with changes in the monetary base, and, consequently with the monetary seigniorage (Figure 4). Since total seigniorage is used to cover all central bank expenses it usually overestimates flow of the resources from the central bank to the budget (Figure 5). Finally, we would like to stress that there is no direct correlation between yearly inflation rates and neither corresponding values of fiscal seigniorage nor monetary seigniorage (see Figure 6) [3]. 12 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski [2] It has to be mentioned that the reduction in the non government debt has been estimated as a residual, and consequently, it accommodates all possible errors in the data used. Nevertheless, we believe that the numbers presented are significant enough to represent an actual trend. [3] Since there are only a few observations in the analysed period (to few for proper econometric analysis), the figure presented gives just a hint, and does not pretend for anything more.
  • 13. 13 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... Table 1. Sources and Uses of Seigniorage in Georgia (in 1996 prices) 1996 1997 1998 1999 Million of GEL Total S216.6 135.4 178 172.3 t Sources Monetary SM 51.6 71.3 6.7 55.7 t Interest Revenues St I 11.7 32.9 43.1 51.8 Revenues from CB operations St OP 13.6 11.8 10.5 8.7 Revenues from disinvestment St NI 138.3 21.0 49.2 63.1 Uses Costs St C 19.7 6.1 16.7 20.1 Replacement for exchange rate loss St RI -1.4 1.6 99.1 7.0 Reserves and Capital St O 1.0 3.4 -68.5 33.4 Fiscal St G 195.8 125.8 62.1 118.8 Percent of total Sources Monetary St M 23.8% 52.7% 3.8% 32.3% Interest Revenues St I 5.4% 24.3% 24.2% 30.1% Revenues from CB operations St OP 6.3% 8.7% 5.9% 5.0% Revenues from disinvestment St NI 63.9% 15.5% 27.6% 36.6% Uses Costs St C 9.1% 4.5% 9.4% 11.2% Replacement for exchange rate loss St RI -0.6% 1.1% 55.7% 3.9% Reserves and Capital St O 0.5% 2.51% -38.5% 19.4% Fiscal St G 90.4% 92.9% 34.9% 68.9%
  • 14. 14 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski Figure 1. Developments of the Sources of Total Gross Seigniorage as a Fraction of GDP 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 % of GDP Monetary seigniorage Interest seigniorage Seigniorage from realizes gains from assets trading Revenues from the reduction of the non government debt hold by the central bank Figure 2. The Distribution of the Total Gross Seigniorage as a Fraction of GDP 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 1996 1997 1998 1999 % of GDP Replacement seigniorage Cost seigniorage Fiscal seigniorage
  • 15. 15 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... Figure 3. Revenues from the Reduction of the Non Government Debt Hold by NBG and Fiscal Seigniorage as a Fraction of GDP 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 % of GDP Reduction in non government debt hold by CB Fiscal seigniorage Figure 4. Monetary and Fiscal Seigniorage as a Fraction of GDP 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 % of GDP Monetary seigniorage Fiscal seigniorage
  • 16. 16 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski Figure 5. Total and Fiscal Seigniorage as a Fraction of GDP 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 % of GDP Total seigniorage Fiscal seigniorage Figure 6. Relationship between Yearly Inflation Rate and Fiscal Seigniorage and 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 Inflation (%) 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 0.0 0.2 Fiscal seigniorage (% of GDP) Monetary seigniorage (% of GDP) Inflation (%) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
  • 17. 17 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... 5. Macroeconomic Comment According to official documents of the National Bank of Georgia the main target of NBG in the considered period was to ameliorate macroeconomic imbalances, and to achieve economic growth with minimal inflation and an optimal level of the exchange rate. As a result the monetary policy of NBG was very strict. In accordance with these targets money supply grew with a simultaneous reduction in net international assets, growth in net domestic assets (in 1998 and 1999), and extensive lending to the government. As a result of very tight monetary policy, in last few years the National Bank of Georgia has mainly been supplying money through direct credits to the government and very rarely played a role of a lender of last resort. In 1998, out of the total credits of 294,1 million GEL 97,6% represented credits to the government and only 2,4% went to commercial banks. In 1999 the total credits to commercial banks were even lower (i.e., in 1999 of 147,2 million GEL total credit, 146,7 million GEL (99,7%) was issued to the government, and only 0,5 million GEL (0,3%) to commercial banks). On the other hand the minimum reserve requirement increased in 1998 from 12% to 16%. In 1999 the stock of net claims on the government and its growth exceeded corresponding targets defined by IMF by 101,4 million GEL and 101,3 million GEL respectively. As mentioned above, although the main policy instrument used by the NBG was direct lending to the government this practice did not have much influence on the yearly inflation. This is because, only part of the transfers from the National Bank of Georgia to the government resulted from relatively restricted money supply. Taking into account that the NBG’s flow balance sheet can be written as (21) F DAt +DA +DA +DA = DM +DK t t fixed t G t P t where the left hand sums the changes in net foreign assets, in loans to the private sector, loans to the government (net of government deposits) and fixed assets of NBG; the right hand side sums changes in the monetary base and the NBG total capital accounts; and presented as in Table 2, it becomes clear that the other part of an extensive credits to government was financed by the reduction in of net assets of NBG (mainly net international assets).
  • 18. 18 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski Table 2. Flow Balance Sheet of National Bank of Georgia for the Period 1996–1999 (in million GEL) 1996 1997 1998 1999 Change in net foreign assets -141,10 -12,82 -233,47 -45,69 + Change in loans to the private sector -0,99 -27,39 39,73 40,97 + Change in loans to the government (net of 194,87 131,22 172,14 65,70 government deposits) + Change in fixed assets of NBG 3,77 0,99 4,73 9,41 = Change in monetary base 51,61 76,96 7,47 70,39 + Change in capital and reserves 4,93 15,05 -24,34 0,00 The shares of these two sources in the financing of the budget deficit in the subsequent years of the period considered are presented in Table 3 (the monetary seigniorage and the revenues from the reduction of net assets are definitely the main sources of the financing of the budget deficit, moreover, in some years, e.g., 1998 and 1999, revenues from these sources have been used for the financing of other expenses of NBG). Table 3. The Shares of the Monetary Seigniorage and Revenues from the Reduction of Net Assets in the Financing of the Budget Deficit 1996 1997 1998 1999 Deficit of the state budget (% of GDP) 6,8% 6,1% 3,9% 3,7% Fiscal seigniorage (in % of GDP) 5,2% 3,0% 1,4% 2,7% Share of NBG in financing budget deficit 76% 49% 36% 72% Monetary seigniorage as a percentage of fiscal seigniorage 26% 57% 11% 46% Share of the revenues from the reduction of net assets as a percentage of fiscal seigniorage 70% 16% 104% 100%
  • 19. We have to stress that, the extended financing of the deficit of the state budget by the NBG is still costly. It does not result in higher inflation (because of restricted money supply), but it mainly reduces net assets of the National Bank of Georgia. Since the stock of international and private domestic assets hold by NBG is limited, in long run the only way how NBG can finance the deficit of the state budget to the similar extend is to use monetary seigniorage. This, however, will have to be accompanied by significant growth of monetary base and will cause a danger of large inflation. The key reform challenge is therefore to reduce the size of the deficit of the state budget (see Table 3) caused by extremely low tax revenues (with about 7,4% of GDP in 1999 and 6,9% of GDP in 1998 tax revenues in Georgia are among the lowest in all transition economies). Thus, improving tax compliance will be the key to overcoming budgetary crisis and ensure successful continuation of macroeconomic stabilization. The major challenge will be to improve tax system to balance the decline in profit and turnover taxes from the contracting state sector with increased revenues from other sources, such as VAT and personal income tax. Delay in the implementation of the tax reform, accompanied with the extended financing of the budget deficit by the National Bank of Georgia, sooner or later will result in significant increase of monetary base and destabilization of the economy. 6. Concluding Remarks This paper has presented and applied new insights from the seigniorage literature to the problem of financing the budget deficit in Georgia through seigniorage revenues during the process of market reforms, i.e., in the period 1996–1999. In particular, contrary to other empirical studies we have not relied on the simple concept of monetary seigniorage, which measures the flow of the additional monetary base the government can issue, but instead we have used (1) the new concept of total gross seigniorage which measures the total flow to the government sector and (2) fiscal seigniorage which measures the portion of seigniorage received for budget finance. An empirical analysis of sources of seigniorage revenues in Georgia for the period 1996–1999 has revealed that the monetary authorities' interest earnings on non-government debt (interest revenues) and revenues from central bank operations are important sources of total seigniorage revenues, and therefore, the conventional concept of monetary seigniorage inadequately measures the total flow of seigniorage. In particular, the results show that an estimation of the total seigniorage by monetary seigniorage 19 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ...
  • 20. understates the total flow of seigniorage revenues. At the same time, the results indicate that most of the budgetary revenues from NBG in the considered period have been financed by the reduction of the private sector debt, monetary seigniorage should not be used a proxy for the total flow to the government sector. Moreover, the research presented shows that the average flow of seigniorage revenues to the budget was higher than it is usually the case in other countries in transition. Thus it confirms the common belief that in several transitional economies revenues from central bank seigniorage still play a significant budgetary role. We have to stress, however, that in Georgia in the period considered the flow of the resources from the central bank to the budget was not connected with inflationary monetary emissions. Instead most budgetary revenues from NBG have been financed by significant reduction of net international and private domestic assets. Since such practices are surely not sustainable, the problem of financing budget deficit has to be realized by central bank and fiscal authorities. Since the stock international and private domestic assets hold by National Bank of Georgia is limited, in long run NBG can finance the deficit of the state budget only using monetary seigniorage. This, however, will be accompanied by significant growth of monetary base and large inflation. Finally, it is important to stress that the results presented in this paper imply a weakening of the link between inflation and seigniorage. In particular, much like Klein and Neumann (1990), we would like to emphasize that the increase in a yearly change of monetary base (and a country's inflation rate) does not automatically imply higher fiscal seigniorage revenues. Nor (as it has been shown in the case of Georgia) does the inverse necessarily hold, i.e., a decrease in a yearly change of monetary base (associated with the decrease in the rate of inflation) does not automatically imply smaller seigniorage revenues for budget deficit financing. The increase in the scope of temporary budget deficit financing can be achieved by the relevant central bank policy and increasing central bank efficiency instead of by raising the rate of inflation [4]. However, an analysis of the efficiency of legal arrangements and operational procedures of the National Bank of Georgia has been left for further research. 20 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski [4] Klein and Neumann (1990) show that a central bank with a sufficient extent of operational independence might be able to influence the amount of seigniorage acquiring to the government even at unchanged rates of money growth.
  • 21. 21 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... Appendix. Data Sources The main sources of data used for the calculations of the total gross seigniorage and its components are: (1) National Bank of Georgia Balance Sheet and (2) the National Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditure. The simplified forms of these two documents (for 1996–1999) are presented in Table A1 and Table A2 below. A short description follows of how Table A3 (containing all the data used for the computation of the total gross seigniorage and its components) is constructed.
  • 22. 22 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski Table A1. National Bank of Georgia Balance Sheet as of December 31, 1995,1996,1997,1998,1999 (GEL) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ASSETS Gold and foreign currency assets Gold 883209 875959 699292 956925 1038400 IMF related assets 204543817 203344161 196512495 149934576 411233875 Other foreign assets 243773088 249263150 308791301 292575809 327469977 Domestic currency assets Loans to the Government 112445213 296718389 437139344 541523103 646004776 Loans and deposits with banks 2329910 13337196 3240939 5139277 479316 Government Debt Securities 70337352 28080133 Other assets 43248352 30683838 45069089 56050853 98039745 Fixed assets 3678774 7448186 8436258 13161869 22576651 Total assets 610902363 801670879 999888718 1129679764 1534922873
  • 23. 23 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... Table A1. National Bank of Georgia Balance Sheet as of December 31, 1995,1996,1997,1998,1999 (GEL) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 LIABILITIES Foreign currency liabilities Banks 4747144 2361746 551572 8311198 5270476 Loans and liabilities to IMF 346107191 449664432 530367308 688859655 1014616990 Other 44986117 89194451 75639902 80318501 99566347 Domestic currency liabilities Notes and coins in circulation 173965907 215593128 298266914 273346099 350659346 Deposits Deposits of the Government 13668255 3075603 12271780 14853121 11376937 Deposits of Banks 18101200 23385650 22511377 37748541 48700134 Deposits of other 2481649 7184628 2340555 19494613 1623313 Other liabilities 1187919 625427 32302472 5448036 1809330 Total liabilities 605245382 791085065 974251880 1128379764 1533622873 Capital and Reserves 5656981 10585814 25636838 1300000 1300000 Total Liabilities, Capital and Reserves 610902363 801670879 999888718 1129679764 1534922873
  • 24. 24 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski Table A2. National Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures as of December 31, 1995,1996,1997,1998, 1999 (GEL) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 REVENUES Foreign currency related revenues 6022954 11755776 11980987 11146077 10219735 Domestic revenue interest 3947563 19288706 43812550 59624297 80681072 Domestic revenues other 581862 1797588 713802 582475 744955 Total Revenues 10552379 32842070 56507339 71352849 91645762 EXPENSES Interest and other 5886227 7614648 8358407 11502697 15153468 Bad and doubtful loan expenses 407478 13934080 8271136 9273459 Cost of notes and coin production 1391951 41359 Other expenses 2333905 4408851 6608187 10422566 16103569 Total operating expenses 8627610 27349530 14966594 30196399 40571855 Operating profit (in terms of NBG) 1924769 5492540 41540745 41156450 51073907 Loses caused by foreign exchange rate variability -110601399 -8816688 Operating profit (in terms of IAS) 1924769 5492540 41540745 -69444949 42257219 APPROPRIATIONS AND TRANSFERS TO/FROM RESERVES Transfer to the general reserve -570900 -152676 -3654123 5000000 Transfer to the government -962777 -4500000 -37886622 -7000000 Retained loss/(profit) 71444949 -42257219 Transfer to capital -391092 -839864 Total appropriations and transfers (to)/from Reserves -1924769 -5492540 -41540745 69444949 -42257219
  • 25. 25 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ... Table A3. Data Used for the Computation of the Total Gross Seigniorage and its Main Components Year P CCB CCo&BN G R RG-iGAG IR-IE L AG DM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1996 100,0 18342931 1391951 13553364 992540 4500000 11674058 1433092 293642786 51614650 1997 107,9 6608187 0 12694789 3654123 37886622 35454143 -1732082 424867564 76955440 1998 111,6 18693702 0 11728552 -76444949 7000000 48121600 -110601399 456332630 7470407 1999 126,4 25377028 41359 10964690 42257219 0 65527604 -8816688 606547706 70393540 Notes: P – general price level index (1996 = base year) CCB – costs of maintaining operations (in GEL), CCo&Bn – costs of printing banknotes (in GEL), G – revenue from central bank's operations (in GEL), R – profit transfer to increase reserves and capital (in GEL) (RG-iGAG) – net profit distributed to the government (in GEL), (IR-IE) – net interest revenues reported (in GEL), L – book gain (loss) due to exchange rate fluctuation (in GEL), AG – government debt to NBG (in GEL), DM – change in the monetary base (in GEL).
  • 26. Sources CCB (costs of maintaining operations) computed base on the data presented in the National Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (see Table A2, the items: "Bad and doubtful loan expenses" + "Other expenses"). CCo&BN (cost of printing banknotes and making coins) is presented in the National Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (see Table A2, the item: "Cost of notes and coin production"). G (revenue from central bank's operations) presented in the National Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (see Table A2, the items: "Foreign currency related revenues" + "Domestic revenues other"). R (profit transfer to increase reserves and capital) reported in the National Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (see Table A2, the item: "Transfer to the general reserve" + "Transfer to the capital"). RG-iGAG (net profit distributed from central bank to the government) reported in the National Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (see Table A2, the item: "Transfer to the government"). IR-IE (net interest revenues of the National Bank of Georgia) determined as a difference between interest revenues (Table A2, the item "Domestic revenue interest") and interest expenditures (Table A2, the item "Interest and other"). L (book gain/loss) due to exchange rate fluctuation reported in the National Bank of Georgia Statement of Revenue and Expenditures (Table A2, the item "Loses caused by foreign exchange rate variability") AG (government debt held by the National Bank of Georgia) is determined as the sum of loans to general government (Table A1, the item "Loans to the Government") minus deposit of general government (Table A1, the item "Deposits of the Government") (in the years 1998 and 1999 minus stock of government debt securities (Table A1, item "Government Debt Securities") that have been borrowed to NBG in 1998 and partially returned in 1999). DM (the change in the monetary base). Monetary base is defined as the sum of currency in circulation and the deposits of commercial banks and others (non governmental) and is determined based on the National Bank of Georgia Balance Sheet (Table A1, the items "Notes and coins in circulation"+"Deposits of Banks"+"Deposits of other"). 26 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski
  • 27. References Budina N. (1997). Essays on Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Eastern Europe. Tinbergen Institute Research Series 145, University of Amsterdam. Cukrowski J., J. Janecki (1998). Financing Budget Deficits by Seigniorage: the Case of Poland 1990–1997. Studies and Analyses No. 155, Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), Warsaw 1998, pp. 30. Cukrowski J., E. Stavrev (2000). Central Bank Seigniorage in the Czech Republic, Applied Economic Letters (in press). Cukrowski J., E. Stavrev (1999). Seigniorage and Fiscal Seigniorage in the Czech Republic" Prague Economic Papers, No.4, 1999, pp.277–287. Drazen A. (1989). Capital Controls and Seigniorage in an Open Economy. [in:] M. de Cecco and A. Giovannini (eds.), A European Central Bank? Perspectives on Monetary Unification After Ten Years of the EMS, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Hochreinter E., R. Rovelli, G. Winckler (1996). Central Banks and Seigniorage: a Study of Three Economies in Transition. European Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), 40, pp. 629–643. Gross D. (1997). Seigniorage and EMU. European Journal of Political Economy, 9, 581–601. Horrendorf B. (1997). Time Consistent Collection of Optimal Seigniorage: a Unifying Framework. Journal of Economic Surveys, 11:1, pp. 1–41. Klein M., M.J.M. Neumann (1990). Seigniorage: What Is It and Who Gets It? Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 126, pp. 205–221. Neumann M.J.M. (1996). A Comparative Study of Seigniorage: Japan and Germany. Bank of Japan Monetary and Economic Studies, 14:1, pp. 104–142. 27 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Financing the Deficit of the State Budget ...
  • 28. 28 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 215 – Jacek Cukrowski 196 Alina Kudina, An Approach to Forecasting Ukrainian GDP from the Supply Side 197 Artur Radziwi³³, Perspektywy zró¿nicowania regionalnego bezrobocia w Polsce 198 Ìàðåê Äîìáðîâñêè, Ïîñëåäñòâèÿ ðîññèéñêîãî ôèíàíñîâîãî êðèçèñà äëÿ ñîñåäíèõ ñòðàí 200 Lubomira Anastassova, Institutional Arrangements of Currency Boards – Comparative Macroeconomic Analysis 201 Stanis³awa Golinowska, Ochrona socjalna bezrobotnych w Polsce oraz w innych krajach 203 Ma³gorzata Jakubiak, Design and Operation of Existing Currency Board Arrangements 204 Preslava Kovatchevska, The Banking and Currency Crises in Bulgaria: 1996–1997 205 Marek Jarociñski, Moldova in 1995–1999: Macroeconomic and Monetary Consequences of Fiscal Imbalances 206 Rafa³ Antczak, Stanislav Bogdankiewich, Pavel Daneiko, Krzysztof Po³omski, Vladymir Usowski: Impact of the Russian Crisis on the Belarussian Economy 207 Yurij Kuz'myn, Ukraine's Foreign Trade Developments and Forecasts 208 Magdalena Tomczyñska, Early Indicators of Currency Crises. Review of some Literature 209 Monika B³aszkiewicz, What Factors Led to the Asian Financial Crisis: Where or Where Not Asian Economic Sound? 210 Elena Jarociñska, Labour Developments in Moldova 211 Rafa³ Antczak, Theoretical aspects of currency crises 212 Artur Radziwi³³, Poland's Accession to the EMU 214 ßöåê Öóêðîâñêè, Þðèé Áóøìàí, Ñåíúîðàæ è ïîñòóïëåíèÿ â áþäæåò îò Íàöèîíàëüíîãî áàíêà Êûðãûçêîé Ðåñïóáëèêè 215 Jacek Cukrowski, Financing the Defict of the State Budget by National Bank of Georgia (1996–1999)