This document analyzes the effect of money growth on inflation in Sudan from 1961-2013. Regression analysis found that lagged inflation and money growth have a statistically significant positive relationship with inflation, consistent with economic theory. Money growth has a larger effect on inflation than lagged inflation. The money gap variable, which measures the difference between money supply and GDP trends, was not statistically significant. Periods of high inflation in Sudan correlated with periods of faster money supply growth relative to GDP growth. The results suggest money growth and deficit financing through money printing are the main drivers of inflation in Sudan over the long run.
Financial Syestem in South Sudan Key Developments and Challenges,, (1)Albino Ajack
This document provides an overview of the financial system in South Sudan, including its macroeconomic environment, financial structure, and key challenges. Some key points:
1) South Sudan has a fragile economy with high poverty and weak institutions as it is a new country that gained independence in 2011. Its GDP per capita is $1081 and it relies heavily on oil exports.
2) The financial system is underdeveloped with limited access to finance. There are 29 licensed banks but financial depth (M2/GDP) is only 15%, below the Sub-Saharan African average of 36%.
3) The financial sector faces challenges of financial stability due to volatility from oil prices and conflicts, as well as a lack
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
In the Special Article, we provide a snapshot of India’s exports sector along with analyzing the important sectors in exports such as services and tourism.
1. Indonesia has faced economic challenges since gaining independence due to weak management and external factors. The economy grew slowly under President Sukarno but improved significantly under President Suharto, reaching high GDP growth rates. However, Indonesia was hit hard by the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, causing a recession. The economy has since recovered, with GDP growth, lower inflation, and reduced unemployment.
2. Key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment are analyzed. GDP growth was highest in the 1970s and 1980s but declined during the Asian financial crisis. Inflation spiked in the 1960s but has generally stabilized. Unemployment rose in the 1990s and 2000
The key direct tax proposals include increasing the surcharge on individuals earning over Rs. 1 crore to 15%, taxing dividend income over Rs. 10 lakhs at 10%, and introducing an equalization levy of 6% on non-resident companies for digital transactions. Notable corporate tax proposals include a concessional 10% tax rate for income from patents developed in India, 100% deduction of profits for 3 years for eligible startups, and phasing out of certain tax exemptions by 2020. The budget also introduced an income declaration scheme and a direct tax dispute resolution scheme.
The document analyzes Sri Lanka's potential to achieve higher economic growth targets. It finds that Sri Lanka is well positioned due to recent macroeconomic gains like low inflation and unemployment. However, pursuing 9% growth would require overcoming challenges like a high budget deficit, "brain drain", and infrastructure deficits. The document recommends policies like privatization, fiscal reforms, and investing in education, infrastructure, and sustainable "green growth" to boost productivity and feasibility of higher targets while mitigating potential negative impacts on inequality and the environment.
Assignment on Current Economic ConditionsAnurag Verma
This document is an assignment submitted by students for their MBA program. It contains summaries of key economic concepts related to growth and inflation in India. The assignment discusses issues like stagflation, nominal vs real GDP, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and how inflation is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI). The students analyze factors influencing India's current economic environment of high inflation and low growth.
Major economic indicators of Banladesh in mid 2015Zahidul Islam
- Average general inflation in Bangladesh decreased to 6.41% in June 2015, while export receipts increased by 3.35% to USD 31.20 billion and import payments increased by 12.21% to USD 41.35 billion in FY15 compared to FY14.
- Remittances increased by 7.65% to USD 15.32 billion in FY15, and foreign exchange reserves increased to USD 25.02 billion in June 2015 compared to USD 23.71 billion in May 2015.
- Tax revenue collection during the first eleven months of FY15 was 14.20% higher at Tk. 118042.32 crore compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year.
The economy is going through a soft patch.
Unemployment increased due to this and seasonal
factors, but started rapidly falling in April.
Macroeconomic balances mostly improved in
the 1Q10. A lot of slack in the economy helped
inflationary tensions ease in this period and the CPI
inflation rate should remain within the central bank
target band for the next four quarters at least. The
four quarter rolling current account deficit rose
slightly in terms of GDP while the central government
deficit came lower than expected.
Financial Syestem in South Sudan Key Developments and Challenges,, (1)Albino Ajack
This document provides an overview of the financial system in South Sudan, including its macroeconomic environment, financial structure, and key challenges. Some key points:
1) South Sudan has a fragile economy with high poverty and weak institutions as it is a new country that gained independence in 2011. Its GDP per capita is $1081 and it relies heavily on oil exports.
2) The financial system is underdeveloped with limited access to finance. There are 29 licensed banks but financial depth (M2/GDP) is only 15%, below the Sub-Saharan African average of 36%.
3) The financial sector faces challenges of financial stability due to volatility from oil prices and conflicts, as well as a lack
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
In the Special Article, we provide a snapshot of India’s exports sector along with analyzing the important sectors in exports such as services and tourism.
1. Indonesia has faced economic challenges since gaining independence due to weak management and external factors. The economy grew slowly under President Sukarno but improved significantly under President Suharto, reaching high GDP growth rates. However, Indonesia was hit hard by the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, causing a recession. The economy has since recovered, with GDP growth, lower inflation, and reduced unemployment.
2. Key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment are analyzed. GDP growth was highest in the 1970s and 1980s but declined during the Asian financial crisis. Inflation spiked in the 1960s but has generally stabilized. Unemployment rose in the 1990s and 2000
The key direct tax proposals include increasing the surcharge on individuals earning over Rs. 1 crore to 15%, taxing dividend income over Rs. 10 lakhs at 10%, and introducing an equalization levy of 6% on non-resident companies for digital transactions. Notable corporate tax proposals include a concessional 10% tax rate for income from patents developed in India, 100% deduction of profits for 3 years for eligible startups, and phasing out of certain tax exemptions by 2020. The budget also introduced an income declaration scheme and a direct tax dispute resolution scheme.
The document analyzes Sri Lanka's potential to achieve higher economic growth targets. It finds that Sri Lanka is well positioned due to recent macroeconomic gains like low inflation and unemployment. However, pursuing 9% growth would require overcoming challenges like a high budget deficit, "brain drain", and infrastructure deficits. The document recommends policies like privatization, fiscal reforms, and investing in education, infrastructure, and sustainable "green growth" to boost productivity and feasibility of higher targets while mitigating potential negative impacts on inequality and the environment.
Assignment on Current Economic ConditionsAnurag Verma
This document is an assignment submitted by students for their MBA program. It contains summaries of key economic concepts related to growth and inflation in India. The assignment discusses issues like stagflation, nominal vs real GDP, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and how inflation is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI). The students analyze factors influencing India's current economic environment of high inflation and low growth.
Major economic indicators of Banladesh in mid 2015Zahidul Islam
- Average general inflation in Bangladesh decreased to 6.41% in June 2015, while export receipts increased by 3.35% to USD 31.20 billion and import payments increased by 12.21% to USD 41.35 billion in FY15 compared to FY14.
- Remittances increased by 7.65% to USD 15.32 billion in FY15, and foreign exchange reserves increased to USD 25.02 billion in June 2015 compared to USD 23.71 billion in May 2015.
- Tax revenue collection during the first eleven months of FY15 was 14.20% higher at Tk. 118042.32 crore compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year.
The economy is going through a soft patch.
Unemployment increased due to this and seasonal
factors, but started rapidly falling in April.
Macroeconomic balances mostly improved in
the 1Q10. A lot of slack in the economy helped
inflationary tensions ease in this period and the CPI
inflation rate should remain within the central bank
target band for the next four quarters at least. The
four quarter rolling current account deficit rose
slightly in terms of GDP while the central government
deficit came lower than expected.
Trends in the main macroeconomics indicators of BangladeshFahad Aziz
The document analyzes trends in major macroeconomic indicators in Bangladesh since the 1970s. It finds that GDP growth has increased since the 1990s and averaged around 6% in the last 5 years. There has been a structural shift from an agriculture-led economy to an industry-led economy. Revenue as a percentage of GDP has gradually increased but remains one of the lowest in the world. Financial deepening, as measured by the money to GDP ratio, has increased steadily. The government has reformed debt management and developed the domestic bond market.
Growth in Azerbaijan's GDP accelerated to 5.8% in 2013, driven by expansion in the non-oil sector and a resumption of growth in the petroleum industry. Inflation rose to 2.4% due to higher wages and increased credit. The budget surplus was estimated at 0.7% of GDP, reversing a 2012 deficit, however fiscal policy is driven largely by volatile oil revenues. GDP growth is projected to moderate to around 5% in 2014-2015 as oil production grows more slowly. The key policy challenge is reducing dependence on oil revenues through fiscal consolidation and promoting diversification, particularly in agriculture.
This document is the budget speech for 1991-92 by the Minister of Finance, Manmohan Singh. It summarizes the deep economic crisis India was facing, with high fiscal and current account deficits, inflation over 12%, and dangerously low foreign exchange reserves. It outlines the government's plan to introduce fiscal austerity, trade and industrial reforms, and promote foreign investment to stabilize the economy and restore growth over the next 3 years, while protecting the interests of the poor.
The document analyzes Bangladesh's national budget for fiscal year 2015-16. It notes both advantages, such as low inflation and stable exchange rates, and challenges for the economy, including sluggish private investment and poor revenue generation. The budget aims for 7% GDP growth. It projects increases in both revenue and expenditure as a percentage of GDP, with the budget deficit remaining at 5% of GDP. However, the analysis questions whether the fiscal framework is credible and sustainable given past budget overruns.
The overall economic condition of bangladeshTanvir777
This document provides an overview of the economic condition of Bangladesh in fiscal year 2011-12. It discusses macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, trade balance, budget deficit, and public debt. Key points include:
- GDP growth target is 7% for FY 2011-12, with projections of 6.82% growth under a business as usual scenario.
- Inflation target is 7.5% while the rate in November 2011 was 10.51%.
- The budget deficit is projected to be 402.66 billion taka, with domestic and foreign borrowing estimated at 272.08 billion and 130.58 billion respectively.
- Foreign exchange reserves declined to USD 9285.20 million in November
- The Egyptian economy has reached an alarming point with weak fundamentals across private consumption, investment, exports, and imports.
- The new government has embarked on an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy including a stimulus package and interest rate cuts to boost growth.
- The report forecasts GDP growth of 2.7% in the current fiscal year, below the government's 3.5% target. Private consumption is expected to grow 2.5% while government consumption grows 4.8%. Investment growth is forecasted at 2.3%. Exports are forecasted to decline 1.5% and imports 0.8%.
- Structural issues like high unemployment and inflation continue to weigh on a full recovery in private consumption while
Despite a slowing global recovery, growth is projected to be 3.3% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2015. Advanced economies are expected to see faster growth led by the US, while the eurozone recovery remains weak. Emerging markets face more divergence, with steady growth in Asia but slower growth in Latin America, Russia, and the Middle East. Short-term risks include worsening geopolitical tensions and reversals in financial markets.
Ahli bank weekly capital markets newsletter 21st 25th of july 2019ahli bank
- The Jordan Ahli Bank weekly capital markets newsletter provides an overview of market performance and news from the previous week. Key highlights included the Amman Stock Exchange index closing up 0.04% while trading value declined by 1.75%, and the Jordan Ahli Bank share price closing down 5.77%.
- Regional market news included a 425 basis point interest rate cut in Turkey, GDP growth of 5.7% in Abu Dhabi driven by the oil sector, and an 11% rise in financial companies in Dubai's financial center despite a slowing global economy.
- Global news highlighted comments from former Fed chair Janet Yellen supporting a US rate cut, Boris Johnson increasing the risk of a no-
In this paper the concept of total gross seigniorage is used to analyze sources of revenues of National Bank of Georgia (NBG) and their distribution in the period 1996-1999. A comprehensive framework for measuring total seigniorage and its main components is presented and estimates of seigniorage revenues (sources and uses) are computed and analyzed. It is shown that in the considered period fiscal revenues from NBG have not been extensively financed by the money supply (consequently, cannot be estimated by the monetary seigniorage), but have been mostly covered by the reduction of the non government debt hold by central bank. Since the stock of international and private domestic assets hold by National Bank of Georgia is limited, in long run NBG cannot rely on it. The only way how, in the future, NBG can finance large deficits of the state budget is to use monetary seigniorage. This, however, will have to be accompanied by significant growth of monetary base and will cause a danger of large inflation.
Authored by: Jacek Cukrowski
Published in 2000
Macro Pakistani | Paklaunch | Growth Basics and Economic Policy Making in Pak...Faiz Ahmed
Pakistan is classified as a lower middle income country with lower real growth than its peers. It follows 10 year consumption based growth cycles, with periods of low growth as the economy slows down. Investment and savings levels are not high enough, relying too much on foreign inflows. Productivity has remained largely unchanged across sectors, and most new jobs will be low-wage and low-skilled. To improve growth, policy focus should be on increasing investment, human development, and addressing constraints like limited access to financing for the private sector.
Is the tide rising?
The euro area is turning the corner from recession to recovery. Growth is projected to strengthen to 1 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015.
Download full text
Enhancing Accountability in Public Finance through Performance in Bangladeshicgfmconference
The document discusses enhancing accountability in public finance in Bangladesh through linking performance to accountability. It outlines Bangladesh's progress in public financial management reforms over 15 years, including establishing a macroeconomic framework and institutional support for planning and budgeting. While Bangladesh has made progress, public opinion polls are not yet a reality due to limited public awareness of financial processes and nascent performance budgeting systems. Intermediate steps are being taken to evolve performance orientation and accountability, such as pre-budget consultations and training programs to strengthen performance monitoring.
The document provides an economic outlook and summary of key markets for May 2014. It discusses expectations for the upcoming general election in India and implications for various asset classes. The equity outlook remains positive on expectations that a reform-oriented government will accelerate the economy and revive the growth and earnings cycle. The document recommends overweight positions in healthcare, IT/ITES, banking, energy, and neutral stances on power utilities and automobiles.
Bangladesh on
Development Highway:
The Time is Ours
Budget Speech 2017-18
Abul Maal Abdul Muhith
Minister
Ministry of Finance
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
18 Jaisthya 1424
1 June 2017
Budget Speech, 2017-18 ,Bangladesh
India's balance of payments was under stress in 2011-12 as the trade and current account deficits widened. Exports grew at a slower rate while imports grew significantly, leading to a large trade deficit. The current account deficit also increased substantially. While capital inflows increased, they did not fully finance the current account deficit, resulting in a drawdown of foreign exchange reserves. The growing integration of India's economy with the global economy has helped growth but also increased vulnerability to external shocks. Focusing on domestic macroeconomic rebalancing can help reduce this vulnerability.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
1) Indonesia has experienced strong economic growth in recent decades but faces short-term challenges including a slowing economy, widening budget deficit, and currency depreciation due to capital outflows.
2) Weakening commodity prices and slowing investment have reduced GDP growth to an estimated 5.5% in 2013 and 5.0% in the medium term, down from over 5.9% in 2008-2012.
3) A widening current account deficit, capital outflows, and currency depreciation have increased inflation and interest rates, constraining fiscal and monetary policy options.
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
The document discusses monetary policy and reforms in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 1976 to 2010. It analyzes how monetary policy influences economic growth. The author hypothesizes that monetary reforms through interest rate fixes only partially stimulated growth. Transmission channels of monetary policy were not effective, preventing growth in sectors like agriculture. Economic theories also have limits in applicability to the Congolese economy. The author aims to examine how monetary reforms evolved historically and compare past and present practices to understand the country's persistent monetary issues and quasi-permanent measures with short-lived effects.
The Italian economy is experiencing its most severe and prolonged recession in history, with real GDP growth expected to be negative for a fourth consecutive year in 2014. Potential growth has also been negative since 2012 according to the Commission. Despite the negative potential growth, output gaps have been exceptionally large, indicating very weak cyclical conditions from 2013-2015. While cyclical conditions may improve in 2016, the economy will still be experiencing bad conditions according to the Commission's criteria. The negative cyclical environment has significantly impacted debt dynamics in Italy and made fiscal consolidation self-defeating, as further fiscal tightening could harm growth prospects without achieving debt reduction targets. Structural reforms being implemented are expected to boost growth over the long-run but their impact may be
HAIR TRANSPLANT IN PAKISTAN BY COSMETIQUE SERVING HIS PATIENCE LAST 15 YEARS. COSMETIQUE HAS A PROFESSIONAL TEAM , RELIABLE AND COMPETENT BEST HAIR TRANSPLANT SURGEON IN PAKISTAN . IN THESE DAYS HAIR TRANSPLANT IN PAKISTAN IS THE RISING FACTOR AMONG PEOPLES AND THEY DESIRED TO MEET THEIR NEEDS . COSMETIQUE HAIR TRANSPLANT IN PAKSITAN ALSO OFFERS FUE HAIR TRANSPLANT IN PAKSITAN WITH IN LOW COST HAIR TRANSPLANT AND THE RESULT OF HAIR TRANSPLANT IN PAKISTAN BY COSMETIQUE IS JUST GREAT.
Trends in the main macroeconomics indicators of BangladeshFahad Aziz
The document analyzes trends in major macroeconomic indicators in Bangladesh since the 1970s. It finds that GDP growth has increased since the 1990s and averaged around 6% in the last 5 years. There has been a structural shift from an agriculture-led economy to an industry-led economy. Revenue as a percentage of GDP has gradually increased but remains one of the lowest in the world. Financial deepening, as measured by the money to GDP ratio, has increased steadily. The government has reformed debt management and developed the domestic bond market.
Growth in Azerbaijan's GDP accelerated to 5.8% in 2013, driven by expansion in the non-oil sector and a resumption of growth in the petroleum industry. Inflation rose to 2.4% due to higher wages and increased credit. The budget surplus was estimated at 0.7% of GDP, reversing a 2012 deficit, however fiscal policy is driven largely by volatile oil revenues. GDP growth is projected to moderate to around 5% in 2014-2015 as oil production grows more slowly. The key policy challenge is reducing dependence on oil revenues through fiscal consolidation and promoting diversification, particularly in agriculture.
This document is the budget speech for 1991-92 by the Minister of Finance, Manmohan Singh. It summarizes the deep economic crisis India was facing, with high fiscal and current account deficits, inflation over 12%, and dangerously low foreign exchange reserves. It outlines the government's plan to introduce fiscal austerity, trade and industrial reforms, and promote foreign investment to stabilize the economy and restore growth over the next 3 years, while protecting the interests of the poor.
The document analyzes Bangladesh's national budget for fiscal year 2015-16. It notes both advantages, such as low inflation and stable exchange rates, and challenges for the economy, including sluggish private investment and poor revenue generation. The budget aims for 7% GDP growth. It projects increases in both revenue and expenditure as a percentage of GDP, with the budget deficit remaining at 5% of GDP. However, the analysis questions whether the fiscal framework is credible and sustainable given past budget overruns.
The overall economic condition of bangladeshTanvir777
This document provides an overview of the economic condition of Bangladesh in fiscal year 2011-12. It discusses macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, trade balance, budget deficit, and public debt. Key points include:
- GDP growth target is 7% for FY 2011-12, with projections of 6.82% growth under a business as usual scenario.
- Inflation target is 7.5% while the rate in November 2011 was 10.51%.
- The budget deficit is projected to be 402.66 billion taka, with domestic and foreign borrowing estimated at 272.08 billion and 130.58 billion respectively.
- Foreign exchange reserves declined to USD 9285.20 million in November
- The Egyptian economy has reached an alarming point with weak fundamentals across private consumption, investment, exports, and imports.
- The new government has embarked on an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy including a stimulus package and interest rate cuts to boost growth.
- The report forecasts GDP growth of 2.7% in the current fiscal year, below the government's 3.5% target. Private consumption is expected to grow 2.5% while government consumption grows 4.8%. Investment growth is forecasted at 2.3%. Exports are forecasted to decline 1.5% and imports 0.8%.
- Structural issues like high unemployment and inflation continue to weigh on a full recovery in private consumption while
Despite a slowing global recovery, growth is projected to be 3.3% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2015. Advanced economies are expected to see faster growth led by the US, while the eurozone recovery remains weak. Emerging markets face more divergence, with steady growth in Asia but slower growth in Latin America, Russia, and the Middle East. Short-term risks include worsening geopolitical tensions and reversals in financial markets.
Ahli bank weekly capital markets newsletter 21st 25th of july 2019ahli bank
- The Jordan Ahli Bank weekly capital markets newsletter provides an overview of market performance and news from the previous week. Key highlights included the Amman Stock Exchange index closing up 0.04% while trading value declined by 1.75%, and the Jordan Ahli Bank share price closing down 5.77%.
- Regional market news included a 425 basis point interest rate cut in Turkey, GDP growth of 5.7% in Abu Dhabi driven by the oil sector, and an 11% rise in financial companies in Dubai's financial center despite a slowing global economy.
- Global news highlighted comments from former Fed chair Janet Yellen supporting a US rate cut, Boris Johnson increasing the risk of a no-
In this paper the concept of total gross seigniorage is used to analyze sources of revenues of National Bank of Georgia (NBG) and their distribution in the period 1996-1999. A comprehensive framework for measuring total seigniorage and its main components is presented and estimates of seigniorage revenues (sources and uses) are computed and analyzed. It is shown that in the considered period fiscal revenues from NBG have not been extensively financed by the money supply (consequently, cannot be estimated by the monetary seigniorage), but have been mostly covered by the reduction of the non government debt hold by central bank. Since the stock of international and private domestic assets hold by National Bank of Georgia is limited, in long run NBG cannot rely on it. The only way how, in the future, NBG can finance large deficits of the state budget is to use monetary seigniorage. This, however, will have to be accompanied by significant growth of monetary base and will cause a danger of large inflation.
Authored by: Jacek Cukrowski
Published in 2000
Macro Pakistani | Paklaunch | Growth Basics and Economic Policy Making in Pak...Faiz Ahmed
Pakistan is classified as a lower middle income country with lower real growth than its peers. It follows 10 year consumption based growth cycles, with periods of low growth as the economy slows down. Investment and savings levels are not high enough, relying too much on foreign inflows. Productivity has remained largely unchanged across sectors, and most new jobs will be low-wage and low-skilled. To improve growth, policy focus should be on increasing investment, human development, and addressing constraints like limited access to financing for the private sector.
Is the tide rising?
The euro area is turning the corner from recession to recovery. Growth is projected to strengthen to 1 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015.
Download full text
Enhancing Accountability in Public Finance through Performance in Bangladeshicgfmconference
The document discusses enhancing accountability in public finance in Bangladesh through linking performance to accountability. It outlines Bangladesh's progress in public financial management reforms over 15 years, including establishing a macroeconomic framework and institutional support for planning and budgeting. While Bangladesh has made progress, public opinion polls are not yet a reality due to limited public awareness of financial processes and nascent performance budgeting systems. Intermediate steps are being taken to evolve performance orientation and accountability, such as pre-budget consultations and training programs to strengthen performance monitoring.
The document provides an economic outlook and summary of key markets for May 2014. It discusses expectations for the upcoming general election in India and implications for various asset classes. The equity outlook remains positive on expectations that a reform-oriented government will accelerate the economy and revive the growth and earnings cycle. The document recommends overweight positions in healthcare, IT/ITES, banking, energy, and neutral stances on power utilities and automobiles.
Bangladesh on
Development Highway:
The Time is Ours
Budget Speech 2017-18
Abul Maal Abdul Muhith
Minister
Ministry of Finance
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
18 Jaisthya 1424
1 June 2017
Budget Speech, 2017-18 ,Bangladesh
India's balance of payments was under stress in 2011-12 as the trade and current account deficits widened. Exports grew at a slower rate while imports grew significantly, leading to a large trade deficit. The current account deficit also increased substantially. While capital inflows increased, they did not fully finance the current account deficit, resulting in a drawdown of foreign exchange reserves. The growing integration of India's economy with the global economy has helped growth but also increased vulnerability to external shocks. Focusing on domestic macroeconomic rebalancing can help reduce this vulnerability.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
1) Indonesia has experienced strong economic growth in recent decades but faces short-term challenges including a slowing economy, widening budget deficit, and currency depreciation due to capital outflows.
2) Weakening commodity prices and slowing investment have reduced GDP growth to an estimated 5.5% in 2013 and 5.0% in the medium term, down from over 5.9% in 2008-2012.
3) A widening current account deficit, capital outflows, and currency depreciation have increased inflation and interest rates, constraining fiscal and monetary policy options.
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
The document discusses monetary policy and reforms in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 1976 to 2010. It analyzes how monetary policy influences economic growth. The author hypothesizes that monetary reforms through interest rate fixes only partially stimulated growth. Transmission channels of monetary policy were not effective, preventing growth in sectors like agriculture. Economic theories also have limits in applicability to the Congolese economy. The author aims to examine how monetary reforms evolved historically and compare past and present practices to understand the country's persistent monetary issues and quasi-permanent measures with short-lived effects.
The Italian economy is experiencing its most severe and prolonged recession in history, with real GDP growth expected to be negative for a fourth consecutive year in 2014. Potential growth has also been negative since 2012 according to the Commission. Despite the negative potential growth, output gaps have been exceptionally large, indicating very weak cyclical conditions from 2013-2015. While cyclical conditions may improve in 2016, the economy will still be experiencing bad conditions according to the Commission's criteria. The negative cyclical environment has significantly impacted debt dynamics in Italy and made fiscal consolidation self-defeating, as further fiscal tightening could harm growth prospects without achieving debt reduction targets. Structural reforms being implemented are expected to boost growth over the long-run but their impact may be
HAIR TRANSPLANT IN PAKISTAN BY COSMETIQUE SERVING HIS PATIENCE LAST 15 YEARS. COSMETIQUE HAS A PROFESSIONAL TEAM , RELIABLE AND COMPETENT BEST HAIR TRANSPLANT SURGEON IN PAKISTAN . IN THESE DAYS HAIR TRANSPLANT IN PAKISTAN IS THE RISING FACTOR AMONG PEOPLES AND THEY DESIRED TO MEET THEIR NEEDS . COSMETIQUE HAIR TRANSPLANT IN PAKSITAN ALSO OFFERS FUE HAIR TRANSPLANT IN PAKSITAN WITH IN LOW COST HAIR TRANSPLANT AND THE RESULT OF HAIR TRANSPLANT IN PAKISTAN BY COSMETIQUE IS JUST GREAT.
This document is a resume for Mohamed Mahmoud ElAttar. It summarizes his personal details, including his date of birth, place of birth, and contact information. It outlines his educational background in Mechatronics Engineering and lists his work experience, including positions in mechanical production, maintenance engineering, and instruction. It also provides details on his technical skills, languages, and behavioral competencies.
Peg to Export Price PEP as a Monetary Regime for Small Commodity-Exporters, S...Albino Ajack
The document proposes pegging the exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries, especially oil exporters, to the price of their main export commodity (Peg to Export Price/PEP). It uses data from 6 major oil exporters between 1986-2014 to estimate the relationship between exchange rates and oil prices under floating and hypothetical PEP regimes. The analysis finds exchange rates in countries with floating regimes diverged more from oil-linked rates compared to the hypothetical PEP. This indicates PEP may better maintain monetary stability in commodity-dependent economies by automatically adjusting the exchange rate to offset fluctuations in commodity prices.
El documento describe los diferentes tipos de hardware y software que componen un sistema informático. Explica que el hardware son las partes físicas como la CPU, tarjeta madre y tarjetas de audio y video, mientras que el software incluye programas y firmware. También cubre otros componentes como la memoria RAM, memoria ROM, buses USB y los recursos humanos involucrados.
Improve your skills and strength with basketball trainingsport club
Good basketball players need to train consistently and efficiently to develop an athletic physique that is lean, fast, and agile with great endurance and recovery through workouts that make demands on their whole body.
Handling Capital Outflows in Developing CountriesAlbino Ajack
The document discusses capital outflows in developing countries and policy options to address them. It explains that capital outflows can lead to currency depreciation and reduced investment, hindering economic growth. While central banks can intervene by selling foreign reserves to limit depreciation, this faces tradeoffs with monetary policy given limited reserves. The paper aims to identify the least negative policy options for developing countries to offset capital outflow pressures.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms for those who already suffer from conditions like anxiety and depression.
Fight against Legionella: In order to be able to wholly and professionally tackle the topic of "Hygiene," in 2015 a team of experts was created by TÜV AUSTRIA HYGIENIC EXPERT GMBH.
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Similar to The Effect of Money Growth on Inflation in Sudan 1961-2013 (1) (20)
3. 2
1- Introduction:
The paper is addressed to answer the question of does, money growth lead to high inflation
rate in Sudan, and we see the issue of inflation is one of the important issues for a number of
reasons. First, high inflation will put the people with fixed income on risk of their incomes may
not cope with the continuous rising prices. Secondly, high rates of inflation increases spending
and borrowing at the expense of savings. Thirdly, low investment will lead to slow GDP
growth. Finally, when inflation is higher at home country imports will go up, and exports will fall
down which will lead to current account deficit which in turn is a bad indicator for a country.1
Inflation is one of the most important monetary phenomenon, especially when it associated
with high growth of money, in low-income and post-conflict countries (Moriyama, Kenji July
2008).Another study used error correction model named, Determinants of Inflation in Sudan
(Yol, Marial Awou 2010). Also, (Abdalla, Mustafa Mohamed 2010) conducted a study on
Inflation Determinants in Sudan, and adopted Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR), Error
Correction Model and fiscal dominance model.
This paper is going to study the effect of log money supply growth and the money gap which is
the difference between HP trend log nominal money supply minus HP trend log GDP, on the
inflation in Sudan for the period from 1961-2013 by regressing the inflation rate on log money
growth and moneygap using Error Correction Mechanism. And the result can be used in helping
the Central Bank on managing the money growth in order to obtain low inflation.
The equation which links the inflation with the economic theory, as a monetary phenomenon is
the quantitative theory of money which says that:
MV=PY …………(1) and by taking the logarithm and adding the error term to the model we will
get:
……… (2),,, the lower case letters are the log of the variables, and this equation
says that log money has a positive effect on log price level which is a measure of inflation, and
1
Yol, Marial Awou (2010), Determinants of Inflation in Sudan
4. 3
log GDP has a negative effect on price level. Therefore, we will be estimating the effect of
money growth on inflation according to the following equation (The lower case letters are the
logarithm of the variables):
( ) …………..(3)
When, is the inflation rate, is the lag of inflation or inflation in the previous period,
is the log money growth, ( ) is the HP trend log money
supply minus HP trend log GDP, following Domac (2004) method.
This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses some data related issues. Section 3
presents the results of the regression. Section 4 discusses the conclusion of the analysis.
2- Data and Statistics
The paper used annual data for inflation rate, nominal money supply and nominal gross
domestic product (GDP) of Sudan, for the period from 1961-2013. The source of the data is the
World Bank website. However, we considered that nominal money supply and nominal GDP has
unit root, while inflation does not has unit root, also we have adjusted the (GDP) using HP filter
to get the trend GDP for Sudan, and then we subtract log trend GDP from HP trend log nominal
money supply. For the data we made some statistical tests to see whether the data can be good
for use or no and we assumed that inflation and money growth are co-integrated in the long-
run, then we used Victor Error Correction Model to test the data, and the results was as follow
there is long-run causality between inflation and money supply, and there was no short run
causality between inflation and money supply, besides that we found according to Lagrange-
multiplier test that there is no serial autocorrelation which means the model has no
autocorrelation problems, finally for the residuals by using Jaque-Bera test we found the
residuals are normally distributed, which means that we can accept the model to be used.
5. 4
Figure (1): Shows the relationship between log money growth and inflation rate:
The most important parts of this chart are the period when Sudan experience hyperinflation
which reached double and treble digits when it reaches 132% in 1996 et al (Yol, 2010), the
reason behind that was the central bank has started so many new policies like adopting floated
exchange rate, and the imports was dominant by buying machinery and capital equipment,
means of transports which were account for 75% of the import bill, and from the export side
cotton was the main cash source for Sudan and it is price were in continuous decline
worldwide, As a result, the deficit in the current account became very high in that period et al
(2010). Also, the government at that time used "seignorage” which means the revenue that a
government raises by printing money 2
.. Then after the exploitation of oil in Sudan, which
started in 1999 when Sudan started exporting oil to the world3
. the inflation rate in Sudan
dropped down till it became one digit below 9% in the early 2000s, this low inflation appears
because of the increase in the output of Sudan which was from the oil share that also go with
2
Money Demand and Seigniorage-Maximizing Inflation (William R. Easterly, Paolo Mauro, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel,
May 1995)
3
Oil and Agriculture in the Post-Separation Sudan by (Siddig, Khalid H. A., 2012)
6. 5
the economic theory which says that a positive growth in GDP will reduce the inflation rate,
these situation continue for seven years till the inflation rate jumped up again to 14% in late
2008, when the financial crisis hit the world economy, and that has an effect on the economy of
Sudan as well, but most of the burden of the effect was not through the financial market and
interest rate as the case for most of the countries which suffer from the crisis, the reason is that
at that period Sudan was under some sanctions from USA, and also the financial market of
Sudan has a weak link with the international financial market. Therefore, the effect of the crisis
has come through the drop in oil prices by 70%, while the budget of Sudan depends by 50% on
oil revenues.4
This resulted in severe budgetary deficits and large money injections to the
banking system et al (2010). Also, before that in 2005, Sudan has signed a Comprehensive
Peace Agreement with South Sudan to share the oil revenues 50% per each between the two
regions which affect the government of Sudan’s budget. Finally, the increase in the prices of
goods and services in the trade partners of Sudan, has leaded to an increase in the prices of the
imported goods and services from those partner countries by Sudan, which make the inflation
rate to rise in Sudan as a result of foreign inflation.
4
(Al-Hassan, Sabir Mohammed 2010)السودان علي وأثرها العالمية المالية األزمة Translation: Financial Crisis and it is effect
on Sudan
7. 6
Figure (2): Shows the moneygap (HP trend log money minus HP trend log GDP)
From the above graph we can see that money-gap which is HP trend log money minus HP trend
log GDP in the period from 1978 - 1990s is getting smaller which means that money supply is
growing faster than GDP, then the economics theory explains that as when money supply grow
more that GDP the inflation will be increasing, that is clear in the chart above when money gap
became smaller. And when the gap get bigger it means that inflation is decreasing or money is
growing less that GDP, therefore it is clear from figure (2) that why inflation rate was high in
the 1980s, and 1990s, then it became low in 2000s, and rise again in late 2008.
Changes in inflation were highly correlated with the changes of log money growth during the
period from 1961-2013, and this has a good economics interpretation, which means that higher
money growth lead to high inflation especially if the growth of money supply is greater than
growth of output.
8. 7
Regression Results:
The table below shows as the results from Stata when we run the regression of inflation on lag
inflation, log money growth and money-gap.
Table 1:
The Effect of Money Supply and GDP on inflation
inflation Coef.
Std.
Err.
t P>t 95% Confidence Interval
lag inflation 0.56 0.12 4.82 0.00 0.3236 0.7869
log money
growth
0.74 0.22 3.31 0.00 0.2918 1.1922
Money-gap 6.50 8.40 0.77 0.44 -10.3935 23.3873
_cons 4.06 14.97 0.27 0.79 -26.0316 34.1563
R squired is 0.72 , and money-gap is HP trend log money supply minus HP trend log
GDP
Because of the inflation volatility in Sudan economy over the period from 1961-2013, it seems
that the growth in money supply and deficit financing by printing money (seiognorage) are the
main determinants of inflation in the long-run.
The coefficients of Lag inflation and log money growth are statistically significant and carry
correct signs at 5% level, but the coefficients of Lag money and GDP are not statistically
significant, with incorrect signs. The reason we think is that because they are also correlated
with money growth, and the GDP of Sudan faced many shocks related to the political instability
in Sudan during the period.
From table (1) an increase in lag inflation by 1% is associated with an increase in inflation rate
by 0.56 percentage points, and for money growth an increase on money growth by 1% is
associated with 0.74 percentage points increase in inflation rate. And this statistics shows that
money growth have the bigger effect on inflation rate among the significant variables in table
(1). Moreover, lag inflation and log money growth has a correct signs, which means that the
sign are going with the economics theory, as we mentioned in equation (2).
9. 8
The third variable which is money-gap is not statistically significant because HP trend log money
minus HP trend log GDP in its relationship with inflation, shows that money gap is volatile over
long period of time, and from the regression we got a correct and positive coefficient for
money-gap, which means that the money-gap has a positive effect on inflation, but the result is
not statistically significant. Furthermore et al (2008) found that money supply affect inflation
through nominal exchange rate, which means that maybe we need to include the exchange rate
in our regression and adjusted for other factors that would have an effect on inflation through
money then we could get a better result, and we will try this in the future studies.
The important lesson learned from this study is that inflation is influenced by growth in money
in the short-run and the money-gap effect is not significant because we need to include some
other variables to the regression like nominal exchange rate, foreign price level and the trade
volume.
Conclusion:
The objective of this paper is to identify the effect of money growth and GDP on inflation rate
in Sudan, and the result can be summarized as follow:
First, the regression has found that there is a significant effect running from the increase in
money supply growth to high inflation through “seiognorage” , and the data shows that money
supply increases should lead to the high inflation, according to the results the largest changes
on inflation was due to the changes in money growth, since inflation is a source of economic
instability, and it taxed poor people in the country, then the central bank should adopt a policy
that aims to maintain a low rate of money growth in the economy, with some requirements of
strong financial markets to help the central bank in using the open market operations as a tool
of monetary policy for stabilizing inflation rate fluctuations, and adopt flexible exchange rate
regime.
Second, since money growth is the major determinant of domestic inflation, it is necessary for
the government to reduce deficit by printing money and look for some other sources of
revenues rather than printing more money. Because financing the government deficit by
10. 9
“seiognorage” will trigger the growth of money and lead to high inflation which will reduce the
growth of the economy.