CAR - Monthly Housing Market Update - SEPT 2020

California
Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
September 2020

Existing Home Sales
% change+21.2% YTY
California housing market: sales up, price set
new record, supply lowest in years
page
02
Price
$712,430
+17.6% Y2Y
Unsold
Inventory Index
2.0 months
-44.4% Y2Y
Median Days
on Market
11 days
-54.2% Y2Y
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
100.0%
+1.5% Y2Y
September 2020
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-3.7% YTD
489,590

Existing Home Sales
% change
+25.0% YTY
September 2020 Southern California Housing Snapshot
page
3
Unsold
Inventory Index
2.1 months
Median Days
on Market
10 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
100.0%
-5.0% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$656,750
+15.2% YTY

Existing Home Sales
% change
+42.0% YTY
September 2020 Central Coast Housing Snapshot
page
4
Unsold
Inventory Index
1.8 months
Median Days
on Market
12 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
99.6%
-1.4% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$838,500
+20.6% YTY

Existing Home Sales
% change
+18.4% YTY
September 2020 Central Valley Housing Snapshot
page
5
Unsold
Inventory Index
1.8 months
Median Days
on Market
7 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
100.0%
-4.9% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$390,000
+14.6% YTY

Existing Home Sales
% change
+34.2% YTY
September 2020 Bay Area Housing Snapshot
page
6
Unsold
Inventory Index
1.9 months
Median Days
on Market
13 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
101.5%
-7.3% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$1,060,000
+20.5% YTY

Existing Home Sales
% change
+28.3% YTY
September 2020 Far North Housing Snapshot
page
7
Unsold
Inventory Index
2.6 months
Median Days
on Market
24 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
99.4%
-5.6% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$349,900
+19.0% YTY

Sales gained momentum and grew to a level not seen
in over 10 years.
page
9
California, September 2020 Sales: 489,590 Units, -3.7% YTD, +21.2% YTY, +5.2% MTM
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

California home sales continued improving and grew
by double digits on a year-over-year basis
page
10
21.2%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)

Bay Area sales grew at fastest pace in over a decade
page
11
34.2%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
YoY%chg.
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)

So. California sales continue upward trend
page
12
25.0%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
YoY%chg.

Central Valley sales pick up by double digits
page
13
18.4%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
YoY%chg.

Sales growth more robust in higher price segments
page
14
September 2020
(YTY% Chg.)
-25%
10%
19%
30%
55%
74%
118%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140% 37%
41%
22%
47%
38%
15%
$0 - $499k
$500 - $999k
$1M+
Share by Price Segment
2020
2019
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

Sales in the high-end market continue to
outpace all other price ranges
page
15
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
YTY%Chg.inSales
$0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k
$750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
SERIES: Percent Change in Sales

Sales improvement more pronounced in
ultra high-end market
page
16
16.9%
80.5%
119.8%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
YTY%Chg.inSales
$0 - $999k $1M - $2.99M $3M+
SERIES: Percent Change in Sales

Sales by Region
page
17
18.4%
34.2%
25.0%
42.0%
28.3%
49.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
September 2020 Home Sales
Growth by Region
Central
Valley
21%
S.F. Bay
Area
19%
Southern
California
46%
Central
Coast
4%
Far North
3%
Other
Counties
7%
September 2020
Home Sales by Region

Pending sales declined for the
second month in a row
page
18
-6.5%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
MTM%Chg.inPendingSales
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales

Pending sales continued to grow more than
20 percent for the 4th consecutive month
page
19
26.3%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
YTY%Chg.inPendingSales

Pending sales in the top end remained robust
but growth pace began to slow
page
20
20.3%
67.2%
74.6%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
YTY%Chg.inPendingSales
$0 - $999k $1M - $2.99M $3M+

Is it a good time to buy or sell?
52%
58% 56%
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
22%
34%
28%
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Do you think it’s a good time to sell a
home in California?
Do you think it’s a good time to buy a
home in California?
page
21
SERIES: Google Consumer Poll

California median price set another new record
page
23
California, September 2020: $712,430, +0.8% MTM, +17.6% YTY
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

Condo/Townhome median price continue growing
past the $500K mark
page
24
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
May-07
Dec-07
Jul-08
Feb-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
Feb-16
Sep-16
Apr-17
Nov-17
Jun-18
Jan-19
Aug-19
Mar-20
MedianPrice
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
California, September 2019: $460,000, September 2020: $527,000

Median price growth ticked-up solidly for all
residential property types
page
25
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
YTY%Chg.inPrice
Condo Single-Family Homes
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

Price/Square foot grew from last year by double digits
page
26
September 2020: $321, +1.9% MTM, +11.8% YTY
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
PRICEPERSQ.FT.
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes

Price/Square foot: the gap between condo/townhomes
and single-family homes ticked up slightly
page
27
$321
$429
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
PRICEPERSQ.FT.
Diff. in Price/Sq. Ft. SFH Condo/Townhome
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes

Sales price-to-list price ratio flat
page
28
September 2020: 100.0%, +0.0% MTM, 1.3% YTY
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Sales-to-ListPriceRatio
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

List price popped but due primarily to more listings in
high-priced market
page
29
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
YTY%Chg.inPrice
Listing Price Sales Price

Price growth up by double digits in all percentiles;
strongest gain in the top end
page
30
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
19.4% 18.2%
19.8%
22.5%
31.5% 32.1%
30.0%
35.2% 35.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile
Year-over-Year Price Growth

Price growth continues uptrend in all percentiles;
strongest gain in the top percentile
page
31
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
YTY%Chg.inPrice
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100
SERIES: Percent Change in Price

California Market Velocity and Price Growth
page
32
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
-150.0%
-100.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
ExistingSFRMedianPrice
Growth
MarketVelocity
Price Growth Market Velocity (12 month trailing average)
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth

Mortgage payment exceeded last year’s level for the
second consecutive month
page
33
17.6%
7.2%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-16
Apr-17
Sep-17
Feb-18
Jul-18
Dec-18
May-19
Oct-19
Mar-20
Aug-20
YTY%Chg.
California Median Price vs. Mortgage
Payment
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
3.62%
2.89%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
30 Yr. FRM
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth

Mortgage payment exceeded last year’s level for
the second consecutive month
page
34
17.6%
7.2%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
YTY%Chg.
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth

Inventory at the lowest level since Nov 2004
page
36
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
MonthsofSupply
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
Sep 2019: 3.6 Months; Sep 2020: 2.0 Months

Unsold Inventory remained low in all Regions
page
37
1.9
2.1
1.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
MonthsofSupply
Bay Area So CA Central Valley
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

Active listings up month-over-month
for the first time in five months
page
38
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
California Active Listings by Month
2018 2019 2020

Active listings plunged as pent up demand
remained robust
page
39
-48.4%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Year-over-Year % Chg
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

Housing supply tightened up in all regions
page
40
7,658
26,580
10,370
2,782 2,360
5,218
13,312
5,029
1,104 1,325
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
San Francisco
Bay Area
Southern
California
Central Valley Central Coast Far North
ActiveListings
Sep-19 Sep-20
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

Supply continued to drop as sales surged
page
41
34.2%
25.0%
18.4%
42.0%
28.3%
-31.9%
-49.9% -51.5%
-60.3%
-43.9%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
San Francisco
Bay Area
Southern
California
Central Valley Central Coast Far North
Year-to-Year%Chg
Sales Active Listings
September 2020
SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

Active listings dropped in all price segments
page
42
-55.6%
-30.4%
-19.4%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
YTY%Chg.inActiveListings
$0 - $999k $1M - $2.99M $3M+
SERIES: Percent Change in Active Listings

Time on market was the lowest it’s ever been
page
44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
DaysonMarket
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes
California, September 2019: 24.0 Days; September 2020: 11.0 Days

Median time on market down at all percentiles
page
45
SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes
21 21
23 24
26
23
25 25
43
24
9 9 10 11
15
13 13 14
26
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
DaysonMarket
Percentile
Median Time on Market
Sep-19 Sep-20

Sales-to-list price ratio softer at top-end of the market
page
46
100.0% 100.0% 100.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
97.5%
100.0%
95.5%
96.0%
96.5%
97.0%
97.5%
98.0%
98.5%
99.0%
99.5%
100.0%
100.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile
Sep-19 Sep-20

Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties
page
47
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11
Dec-11
May-12
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Feb-16
Jul-16
Dec-16
May-17
Oct-17
Mar-18
Aug-18
Jan-19
Jun-19
Nov-19
Apr-20
Sep-20
YTY%Chg.inPrice
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
Listing Price Sales Price

Reduced-Price Listings
page
48
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 28.0%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.5%
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1/1/2010
6/1/2010
11/1/2010
4/1/2011
9/1/2011
2/1/2012
7/1/2012
12/1/2012
5/1/2013
10/1/2013
3/1/2014
8/1/2014
1/1/2015
6/1/2015
11/1/2015
4/1/2016
9/1/2016
2/1/2017
7/1/2017
12/1/2017
5/1/2018
10/1/2018
3/1/2019
8/1/2019
1/1/2020
6/1/2020
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes

Growth in Reduced-Price Listings
page
49
Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: -13.5%
Growth in Median Reduction Amount: 0.1%
-0.40%
-0.30%
-0.20%
-0.10%
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
10/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
10/1/2016
1/1/2017
4/1/2017
7/1/2017
10/1/2017
1/1/2018
4/1/2018
7/1/2018
10/1/2018
1/1/2019
4/1/2019
7/1/2019
10/1/2019
1/1/2020
4/1/2020
7/1/2020
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes

CAR - Monthly Housing Market Update - SEPT 2020

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