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California
Housing Market Update
Monthly Sales and Price Statistics
February 2023
Existing Home Sales
% change
-33.2% YTY
California Housing Market Snapshot
page 2
Median
Sales Price
$735,480
-4.8% Y2Y
Unsold Inventory
Index
3.2 months
+60.0% Y2Y
Median
Days on Market
28 days
+211.1% Y2Y
February 2023
-39.6% YTD
284,010
Existing Home Sales
% change
-33.8% YTY
February 2023 Southern California Housing Snapshot
page 3
Unsold
Inventory Index
3.2 months
Median Days
on Market
30 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
97.7%
-37.5% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$745,000
-2.0% YTY
Existing Home Sales
% change
-38.3% YTY
February 2023 Central Coast Housing Snapshot
page 4
Unsold
Inventory Index
3.5 months
Median Days
on Market
21 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
97.6%
-36.8% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$856,000
-6.2% YTY
Existing Home Sales
% change
-28.6% YTY
February 2023 Central Valley Housing Snapshot
page 5
Unsold
Inventory Index
2.9 months
Median Days
on Market
27 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
97.6%
-36.0% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$$$4$449,000
-3.4% YTY
Existing Home Sales
% change
-32.0% YTY
February 2023 Bay Area Housing Snapshot
page 6
Unsold
Inventory Index
2.7 months
Median Days
on Market
17 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
99.4%
-34.4% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$$$1,050,000
-19.2% YTY
Existing Home Sales
% change
-39.4% YTY
February 2023 Far North Housing Snapshot
page 7
Unsold
Inventory Index
5.0 months
Median Days
on Market
45 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
96.0%
-39.5% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$369,000
-1.6% YTY
page 8
Sales
page 9
Sales perk up amidst mortgage rates reprieve
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jan-21
Sep-21
May-22
Jan-23
California, February 2023 Sales: 284,010 Units, -33.2% YTY, +17.6% MTM
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
page 10
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
-33.2%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
Sales improved yet still depressed as affordability remains a
challenge
Page 11
Bay Area sales improve slightly but remain below a year ago
-32.0%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120% Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
YoY
%
chg.
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Page 12
-33.8%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
YoY
%
chg.
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Southern California sales appear to be bottoming out
Page 13
-28.6%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
YoY
%
chg.
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Central Valley sales bounce back up
Sales by Region
Page 14
-33.8% -38.3%
-32.0% -28.6%
-39.6% -39.4%
9.5%
2.5%
15.5% 24.6%
5.7%
-2.7%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
February 2023 Home Sales Growth
by Region
YTY % MTM %
Southern
California
48%
Central
Coast
4%
S.F. Bay
Area
17%
Central Valley
24%
Other
Counties
5%
Far North
2%
February 2023
Home Sales by Region
Page 15
30%
45%
25%
28%
44%
28%
$0 - $499k
$500 - $999k
$1M+
Share by Price Segment
2023
2022
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
-21%
-28% -27% -30% -35% -38%
-49%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
February 2023
(YTY% Chg.)
Sales at the top end are slowing the fastest
Sales improving in all price points except at the top end
Page 16
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350% Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
YTY
%
Chg.
in
Sales
$0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k
$750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
SERIES: Percent Change in Sales
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Mix of Sales rebalancing to more normal levels
Page 17
30.5%
24.5%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60% May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
%
of
Sales
Share Gap $0-$499k $1,000k and up
SERIES: Sales by Price Range
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Pending sales improvement slows as mortgage rates
resumed ascent
Page 18
-34.9%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
YTY
%
Chg.
in
Pending
Sales
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Pending sales ā€“ remain sensitive to interest rates
Page 19
-34.9%
-38.6%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
YTY
%
Chg.
in
Pending
Sales
SFH Condo/Townhome
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Pending sales improve slightly
Page 20
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500% Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
YTY
%
Chg.
in
Pending
Sales
$0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
Pending sales growth slowed due to mortgage rates resurgence
Page 21
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80% Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
MTM
%
Chg.
in
pending
Sales
$0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k
$750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Pending sales move up in all price ranges due primarily to
seasonality
Page 22
1% 2%
16% 17% 16%
13% 12%
13.1% 10.8%
5.0% 8.2%
15.1%
23.7%
63.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
February 2023 (MTM% Chg.)
Sales Pending
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Price
page 23
California median home price softens, growth declines for
fourth consecutive month
Page 24
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000 Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jan-21
Sep-21
May-22
Jan-23
California, February 2023: $735,480, -2.1% MTM, -4.8% YTY
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Condo/Townhome median price moderates
Page 25
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Median
Price
California, February 2022: $640,000, February 2023: $615,000
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Median price growth for condos and single-family homes
decelerates
Page 26
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
YTY%
Chg.
in
Price
Condo Single-Family Homes
SERIES: Median Price of Existing SFH & Condo/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Price/Square foot appears to be bottoming out
Page 27
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
PRICE
PER
SQ.
FT.
February 2023: $373, +0.5% MTM, -4.8% YTY
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Per sq. ft. prices are down roughly as much
Page 28
-4.8% -3.9%
-6.2%
-3.4%
-1.6%
-19.2%
-2.0%
-4.8% -5.7% -5.3% -4.7%
-2.8%
-14.7%
-1.4%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
SFR Condo Central
Coast
Central
Valley
Far North S.F. Bay
Area
Southern
California
Year to Year Change in Existing SFR Prices (February 2023)
Median Price $/Sq. Ft.
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
The Price/Square foot gap between home types remains wide
Page 29
$373
$516
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
PRICE
PER
SQ.
FT.
Diff. in Price/Sq. Ft. SFH Condo/Townhome
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes and Condo/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Sales price-to-list price ratio bounces back
Page 30
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Sales-to-List
Price
Ratio
February 2023: 97.7%, +1.2% MTM, -4.9% YTY
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Share of homes sold above asking price jumps as market
competitiveness increases
Page 31
71.2%
72.8%
27.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
%
of
sales
with
price
above
asking
price
SERIES: Sales with sold price above asking price (Existing SFH)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Homes sold above asking price - by county
Page 32
55%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
February 2023: % sold above asking price
50%
SERIES: % of homes sold above asking price
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
List price vs. sales price
Page 33
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12
May-13
Oct-13
Mar-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Dec-17
May-18
Oct-18
Mar-19
Aug-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Nov-20
Apr-21
Sep-21
Feb-22
Jul-22
Dec-22
YTY%
Chg.
in
Price
Listing Price Sales Price
SERIES: List price growth and sales price growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Price growth by percentiles
Page 34
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
YTY%
Chg.
in
Price
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100
SERIES: Percent Change in Price
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
California Market Velocity and Price Growth
Page 35
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Market
Velocity
Price Growth Market Velocity (12 month trailing average)
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Mortgage payment growth lessens as rates wane down
Page 36
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
YTY%
Chg.
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
3.76%
6.26%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
30 Yr. FRM
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Mortgage payment growth ebbs as rates and price moderate
Page 37
-4.8%
26.9%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
YTY%
Chg.
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Inventory &
Active Listings
page 38
Inventory slips ā€“ as sales increase and less new listings are
added to the market
Page 39
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jan-21
Sep-21
May-22
Jan-23
Months
of
Supply
February 2022: 2.0 Months; February 2023: 3.2 Months
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Inventory slips ā€“ getting tighter
Page 40
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Months
of
Supply
February 2022: 2.0 Months; February 2023: 3.2 Months
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Unsold Inventory trickles down as less new listings replenish
the market
Page 41
2.7
3.2
2.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Months
of
Supply
Bay Area So CA Central Valley
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Active listings above last two years but historically low
Page 42
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
California Active Listings by Month
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Active listings slip for fifth consecutive month
Page 43
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
California Active Listings by Month
Active listings grow from last year at slowest pace since May ā€˜22
Page 44
38.2%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Year-over-Year % Chg
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Supply remains tight as fewer new listings join the market
Page 45
21,001 21,146
17,290 16,522
12,456
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Jan-18
Jun-18
Nov-18
Apr-19
Sep-19
Feb-20
Jul-20
Dec-20
May-21
Oct-21
Mar-22
Aug-22
Jan-23
#
of
new
listings
SERIES: New Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
-24.6%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
YTY%
chg.
in
new
listings
New Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
New active listings just enough to replenish closed sales
Page 46
16,522
12,456
15,998
10,826
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Sales vs. New Active Listings
New Active Sales
SERIES: New Listings vs. Sales (Existing Single-Family Homes)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Overall supply level remains above last year as sales continue
to be depressed
Page 47
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
yty% chg. in sales yty% chg. in new active listings yty% chg. in total active listings
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Active listings by region
Page 48
2,444
7,257
3,197
622 842
2,995
10,592
4,690
848 1,005
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
San Francisco
Bay Area
Southern
California
Central Valley Central Coast Far North
Active
Listings
Feb-22 Feb-23
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Inventory builds up in all regions as sales remain muted
across the state
Page 49
-28.6% -33.8% -38.3%
-32.0%
-39.4%
46.7% 46.0%
36.3%
22.5% 19.4%
-80%
-40%
0%
40%
80%
Central Valley Southern
California
Central Coast San Francisco
Bay Area
Far North
Year-to-Year
%
Chg
February 2023
Sales Active Listings
SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Housing supply improves in nearly all counties
Page 50
SERIES: Active Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
127.4%
-32.4%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140% Kings
Solano
Riverside
Sutter
Other
County
Yuba
Placer
Madera
Merced
Marin
Amador
Tulare
San
Benito
Monterey
Fresno
Stanislaus
Orange
San
Luis
Obispo
Ventura
San
Bernardino
San
Joaquin
Humboldt
Butte
San
Diego
Kern
Los
Angeles
Lassen
Mendocino
Contra-Costa
Santa
Barbara
Calaveras
Sonoma
San
Francisco
Glenn
Shasta
Santa
Cruz
Yolo
Sacramento
Tehama
Lake
Napa
Siskiyou
San
Mateo
Santa
Clara
El
Dorado
Alameda
Mariposa
Nevada
Plumas
Tuolumne
Mono
Del
Norte
YTY%
chg.
Active Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
Market
Competitiveness
page 51
Time on market shortens a bit as competitiveness heat up
Page 52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Days
on
Market
California, February 2022: 9 Days; February 2023: 28 Days
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Median time on market by percentile
Page 53
SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
11
9 8 9 10
8 8
11
14
9
27 28 27 26
34
32
30
32
35
28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Days
on
Market
Percentile
Median Time on Market
Feb-22 Feb-23
Sales-to-list price ratio by percentile
Page 54
99.8% 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
98.2%
98.7% 98.5%
97.9%
97.0%
97.7%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
102%
103%
104%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile
Feb-22 Feb-23
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties
Page 55
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
YTY%
Chg.
in
Price
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
Listing Price Sales Price
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Reduced-Price Listings
Page 56
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1/1/2010
7/1/2010
1/1/2011
7/1/2011
1/1/2012
7/1/2012
1/1/2013
7/1/2013
1/1/2014
7/1/2014
1/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
7/1/2016
1/1/2017
7/1/2017
1/1/2018
7/1/2018
1/1/2019
7/1/2019
1/1/2020
7/1/2020
1/1/2021
7/1/2021
1/1/2022
7/1/2022
1/1/2023
Median
Reduction
(Absolute
Value)
%
Share
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 32.7%; Median Reduction Amount: 5.3%
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
Growth in Reduced-Price Listings
Page 57
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
5/1/2019
9/1/2019
1/1/2020
5/1/2020
9/1/2020
1/1/2021
5/1/2021
9/1/2021
1/1/2022
5/1/2022
9/1/2022
1/1/2023
YTY
%
chg.
Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: +15.3%
Growth in Median Reduction Amount: +0.1%
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®

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CAR Housing Market Update - Feb 2023

  • 1. California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics February 2023
  • 2. Existing Home Sales % change -33.2% YTY California Housing Market Snapshot page 2 Median Sales Price $735,480 -4.8% Y2Y Unsold Inventory Index 3.2 months +60.0% Y2Y Median Days on Market 28 days +211.1% Y2Y February 2023 -39.6% YTD 284,010
  • 3. Existing Home Sales % change -33.8% YTY February 2023 Southern California Housing Snapshot page 3 Unsold Inventory Index 3.2 months Median Days on Market 30 days Sales Price to List Price Ratio 97.7% -37.5% YTD Existing Home Price % change $745,000 -2.0% YTY
  • 4. Existing Home Sales % change -38.3% YTY February 2023 Central Coast Housing Snapshot page 4 Unsold Inventory Index 3.5 months Median Days on Market 21 days Sales Price to List Price Ratio 97.6% -36.8% YTD Existing Home Price % change $856,000 -6.2% YTY
  • 5. Existing Home Sales % change -28.6% YTY February 2023 Central Valley Housing Snapshot page 5 Unsold Inventory Index 2.9 months Median Days on Market 27 days Sales Price to List Price Ratio 97.6% -36.0% YTD Existing Home Price % change $$$4$449,000 -3.4% YTY
  • 6. Existing Home Sales % change -32.0% YTY February 2023 Bay Area Housing Snapshot page 6 Unsold Inventory Index 2.7 months Median Days on Market 17 days Sales Price to List Price Ratio 99.4% -34.4% YTD Existing Home Price % change $$$1,050,000 -19.2% YTY
  • 7. Existing Home Sales % change -39.4% YTY February 2023 Far North Housing Snapshot page 7 Unsold Inventory Index 5.0 months Median Days on Market 45 days Sales Price to List Price Ratio 96.0% -39.5% YTD Existing Home Price % change $369,000 -1.6% YTY
  • 9. page 9 Sales perk up amidst mortgage rates reprieve - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20 Jan-21 Sep-21 May-22 Jan-23 California, February 2023 Sales: 284,010 Units, -33.2% YTY, +17.6% MTM SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 10. page 10 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ® -33.2% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg) Sales improved yet still depressed as affordability remains a challenge
  • 11. Page 11 Bay Area sales improve slightly but remain below a year ago -32.0% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 YoY % chg. Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area) SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 14. Sales by Region Page 14 -33.8% -38.3% -32.0% -28.6% -39.6% -39.4% 9.5% 2.5% 15.5% 24.6% 5.7% -2.7% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% February 2023 Home Sales Growth by Region YTY % MTM % Southern California 48% Central Coast 4% S.F. Bay Area 17% Central Valley 24% Other Counties 5% Far North 2% February 2023 Home Sales by Region
  • 15. Page 15 30% 45% 25% 28% 44% 28% $0 - $499k $500 - $999k $1M+ Share by Price Segment 2023 2022 SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ® -21% -28% -27% -30% -35% -38% -49% -60% -40% -20% 0% February 2023 (YTY% Chg.) Sales at the top end are slowing the fastest
  • 16. Sales improving in all price points except at the top end Page 16 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 Dec-22 Feb-23 YTY % Chg. in Sales $0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+ SERIES: Percent Change in Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 17. Mix of Sales rebalancing to more normal levels Page 17 30.5% 24.5% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 % of Sales Share Gap $0-$499k $1,000k and up SERIES: Sales by Price Range SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 18. Pending sales improvement slows as mortgage rates resumed ascent Page 18 -34.9% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 19. Pending sales ā€“ remain sensitive to interest rates Page 19 -34.9% -38.6% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales SFH Condo/Townhome SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 20. Pending sales improve slightly Page 20 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales $0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
  • 21. Pending sales growth slowed due to mortgage rates resurgence Page 21 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 MTM % Chg. in pending Sales $0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+ SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 22. Pending sales move up in all price ranges due primarily to seasonality Page 22 1% 2% 16% 17% 16% 13% 12% 13.1% 10.8% 5.0% 8.2% 15.1% 23.7% 63.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% February 2023 (MTM% Chg.) Sales Pending SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 24. California median home price softens, growth declines for fourth consecutive month Page 24 $- $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20 Jan-21 Sep-21 May-22 Jan-23 California, February 2023: $735,480, -2.1% MTM, -4.8% YTY SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 25. Condo/Townhome median price moderates Page 25 $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Median Price California, February 2022: $640,000, February 2023: $615,000 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 26. Median price growth for condos and single-family homes decelerates Page 26 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% YTY% Chg. in Price Condo Single-Family Homes SERIES: Median Price of Existing SFH & Condo/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 27. Price/Square foot appears to be bottoming out Page 27 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 PRICE PER SQ. FT. February 2023: $373, +0.5% MTM, -4.8% YTY SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 28. Per sq. ft. prices are down roughly as much Page 28 -4.8% -3.9% -6.2% -3.4% -1.6% -19.2% -2.0% -4.8% -5.7% -5.3% -4.7% -2.8% -14.7% -1.4% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% SFR Condo Central Coast Central Valley Far North S.F. Bay Area Southern California Year to Year Change in Existing SFR Prices (February 2023) Median Price $/Sq. Ft. SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 29. The Price/Square foot gap between home types remains wide Page 29 $373 $516 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 PRICE PER SQ. FT. Diff. in Price/Sq. Ft. SFH Condo/Townhome SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes and Condo/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 30. Sales price-to-list price ratio bounces back Page 30 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% 102% 104% 106% Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Sales-to-List Price Ratio February 2023: 97.7%, +1.2% MTM, -4.9% YTY SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 31. Share of homes sold above asking price jumps as market competitiveness increases Page 31 71.2% 72.8% 27.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 % of sales with price above asking price SERIES: Sales with sold price above asking price (Existing SFH) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 32. Homes sold above asking price - by county Page 32 55% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% February 2023: % sold above asking price 50% SERIES: % of homes sold above asking price SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 33. List price vs. sales price Page 33 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Nov-20 Apr-21 Sep-21 Feb-22 Jul-22 Dec-22 YTY% Chg. in Price Listing Price Sales Price SERIES: List price growth and sales price growth SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 34. Price growth by percentiles Page 34 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% YTY% Chg. in Price 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 SERIES: Percent Change in Price SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 35. California Market Velocity and Price Growth Page 35 -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Market Velocity Price Growth Market Velocity (12 month trailing average) SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 36. Mortgage payment growth lessens as rates wane down Page 36 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 YTY% Chg. California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth 3.76% 6.26% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 30 Yr. FRM SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 37. Mortgage payment growth ebbs as rates and price moderate Page 37 -4.8% 26.9% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 YTY% Chg. California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 39. Inventory slips ā€“ as sales increase and less new listings are added to the market Page 39 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20 Jan-21 Sep-21 May-22 Jan-23 Months of Supply February 2022: 2.0 Months; February 2023: 3.2 Months SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 40. Inventory slips ā€“ getting tighter Page 40 0 1 2 3 4 5 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Months of Supply February 2022: 2.0 Months; February 2023: 3.2 Months SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 41. Unsold Inventory trickles down as less new listings replenish the market Page 41 2.7 3.2 2.9 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Months of Supply Bay Area So CA Central Valley SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 42. Active listings above last two years but historically low Page 42 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 California Active Listings by Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
  • 43. Active listings slip for fifth consecutive month Page 43 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 California Active Listings by Month
  • 44. Active listings grow from last year at slowest pace since May ā€˜22 Page 44 38.2% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Year-over-Year % Chg SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 45. Supply remains tight as fewer new listings join the market Page 45 21,001 21,146 17,290 16,522 12,456 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Jan-18 Jun-18 Nov-18 Apr-19 Sep-19 Feb-20 Jul-20 Dec-20 May-21 Oct-21 Mar-22 Aug-22 Jan-23 # of new listings SERIES: New Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ® -24.6% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 YTY% chg. in new listings New Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
  • 46. New active listings just enough to replenish closed sales Page 46 16,522 12,456 15,998 10,826 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Sales vs. New Active Listings New Active Sales SERIES: New Listings vs. Sales (Existing Single-Family Homes) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 47. Overall supply level remains above last year as sales continue to be depressed Page 47 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% yty% chg. in sales yty% chg. in new active listings yty% chg. in total active listings SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 48. Active listings by region Page 48 2,444 7,257 3,197 622 842 2,995 10,592 4,690 848 1,005 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast Far North Active Listings Feb-22 Feb-23 SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 49. Inventory builds up in all regions as sales remain muted across the state Page 49 -28.6% -33.8% -38.3% -32.0% -39.4% 46.7% 46.0% 36.3% 22.5% 19.4% -80% -40% 0% 40% 80% Central Valley Southern California Central Coast San Francisco Bay Area Far North Year-to-Year % Chg February 2023 Sales Active Listings SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 50. Housing supply improves in nearly all counties Page 50 SERIES: Active Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ® 127.4% -32.4% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Kings Solano Riverside Sutter Other County Yuba Placer Madera Merced Marin Amador Tulare San Benito Monterey Fresno Stanislaus Orange San Luis Obispo Ventura San Bernardino San Joaquin Humboldt Butte San Diego Kern Los Angeles Lassen Mendocino Contra-Costa Santa Barbara Calaveras Sonoma San Francisco Glenn Shasta Santa Cruz Yolo Sacramento Tehama Lake Napa Siskiyou San Mateo Santa Clara El Dorado Alameda Mariposa Nevada Plumas Tuolumne Mono Del Norte YTY% chg. Active Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
  • 52. Time on market shortens a bit as competitiveness heat up Page 52 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Days on Market California, February 2022: 9 Days; February 2023: 28 Days SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 53. Median time on market by percentile Page 53 SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ® 11 9 8 9 10 8 8 11 14 9 27 28 27 26 34 32 30 32 35 28 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total Days on Market Percentile Median Time on Market Feb-22 Feb-23
  • 54. Sales-to-list price ratio by percentile Page 54 99.8% 100.0% 100.0% 99.8% 98.2% 98.7% 98.5% 97.9% 97.0% 97.7% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100% 101% 102% 103% 104% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile Feb-22 Feb-23 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 55. Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties Page 55 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 YTY% Chg. in Price California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth Listing Price Sales Price SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®
  • 57. Growth in Reduced-Price Listings Page 57 -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 1/1/2022 5/1/2022 9/1/2022 1/1/2023 YTY % chg. Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: +15.3% Growth in Median Reduction Amount: +0.1% Share Reduced Median Reduction SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSĀ®