Presentation by Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research for the National Association of REALTORS®.

2. Economic and RealEstateMarket Outlook
January 2022
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
National Association ofREALTORS®

3. Unemployment Rate … back to normal
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2020
-
Jan
2020
-
Feb
2020
-
Mar
2020
-
Apr
2020
-
May
2020
-
Jun
2020
-
Jul
2020
-
Aug
2020
-
Sep
2020
-
Oct
2020
-
Nov
2020
-
Dec
2021
-
Jan
2021
-
Feb
2021
-
Mar
2021
-
Apr
2021
-
May
2021
-
Jun
2021
-
Jul
2021
-
Aug
2021
-
Sep
2021
-
Oct
2021
-
Nov
2021
-
Dec

4. Total Payroll Jobs …
199,000 additions in December butstill 3 millionbelow peak
115000
120000
125000
130000
135000
140000
145000
150000
155000
2020
- Jan
2020
- Feb
2020
- Mar
2020
- Apr
2020
- May
2020
- Jun
2020
- Jul
2020
- Aug
2020
- Sep
2020
- Oct
2020
- Nov
2020
- Dec
2021
- Jan
2021
- Feb
2021
- Mar
2021
- Apr
2021
- May
2021
- Jun
2021
- Jul
2021
- Aug
2021
- Sep
2021
- Oct
2021
- Nov
2021
- Dec
In thousands

5. State-by-State Job Growth
fromMarch 2020 to November 2021

6. Job openings (blue) higher than unemployed (red)
1000
6000
11000
16000
21000
26000
2020
- Jan
2020
- Feb
2020
- Mar
2020
- Apr
2020
- May
2020
- Jun
2020
- Jul
2020
- Aug
2020
- Sep
2020
- Oct
2020
- Nov
2020
- Dec
2021
- Jan
2021
- Feb
2021
- Mar
2021
- Apr
2021
- May
2021
- Jun
2021
- Jul
2021
- Aug
2021
- Sep
2021
- Oct
2021
- Nov
2021
- Dec
In thousands

7. Monthly Job Gains in recent months
Household Survey (orange) and Company Payroll Survey (blue)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2021 - Jul 2021 - Aug 2021 - Sep 2021 - Oct 2021 - Nov 2021 - Dec
In thousands

8. WorkerShortage Everywhere except NAR Membership
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
1,600,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

9. PayrollJobs in Chicago MSA
3000
3100
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
2000 -
Jan
2001 -
Jan
2002 -
Jan
2003 -
Jan
2004 -
Jan
2005 -
Jan
2006 -
Jan
2007 -
Jan
2008 -
Jan
2009 -
Jan
2010 -
Jan
2011 -
Jan
2012 -
Jan
2013 -
Jan
2014 -
Jan
2015 -
Jan
2016 -
Jan
2017 -
Jan
2018 -
Jan
2019 -
Jan
2020 -
Jan
2021 -
Jan
In thousands

10. ConsumerPrice Inflation at 7.1%
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2015
-
Jan
2015
-
Mar
2015
-
May
2015
-
Jul
2015
-
Sep
2015
-
Nov
2016
-
Jan
2016
-
Mar
2016
-
May
2016
-
Jul
2016
-
Sep
2016
-
Nov
2017
-
Jan
2017
-
Mar
2017
-
May
2017
-
Jul
2017
-
Sep
2017
-
Nov
2018
-
Jan
2018
-
Mar
2018
-
May
2018
-
Jul
2018
-
Sep
2018
-
Nov
2019
-
Jan
2019
-
Mar
2019
-
May
2019
-
Jul
2019
-
Sep
2019
-
Nov
2020
-
Jan
2020
-
Mar
2020
-
May
2020
-
Jul
2020
-
Sep
2020
-
Nov
2021
-
Jan
2021
-
Mar
2021
-
May
2021
-
Jul
2021
-
Sep
2021
-
Nov

11. Cryptocurrency as Inflation Hedge
• Stay away … It’s a fraud
• Short-term bored gamblers
• Mid-term investors … knowing institutional money
and validation
• Long-term investors … don’t trust the government

12. HomePrice as Inflation Hedge
Decade Home Price
Average Annual
Consumer Price
Average Annual
1970s 9.9% 7.1%
1980s 5.5% 5.6%
1990s 4.1% 3.0%
2000s 2.3% 2.6%
2010s 4.9% 1.8%
2020 + 2021 12% 3%

13. Existing HomeSales – Recent Months
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
7,000,000
2019
-
Jan
2019
-
Feb
2019
-
Mar
2019
-
Apr
2019
-
May
2019
-
Jun
2019
-
Jul
2019
-
Aug
2019
-
Sep
2019
-
Oct
2019
-
Nov
2019
-
Dec
2020
-
Jan
2020
-
Feb
2020
-
Mar
2020
-
Apr
2020
-
May
2020
-
Jun
2020
-
Jul
2020
-
Aug
2020
-
Sep
2020
-
Oct
2020
-
Nov
2020
-
Dec
2021
-
Jan
2021
-
Feb
2021
-
Mar
2021
-
Apr
2021
-
May
2021
-
Jun
2021
-
Jul
2021
-
Aug
2021
-
Sep
2021
-
Oct
2021
-
Nov

15. Newly ConstructedSingle-family Home Sales
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000
-
Jan
2000
-
Aug
2001
-
Mar
2001
-
Oct
2002
-
May
2002
-
Dec
2003
-
Jul
2004
-
Feb
2004
-
Sep
2005
-
Apr
2005
-
Nov
2006
-
Jun
2007
-
Jan
2007
-
Aug
2008
-
Mar
2008
-
Oct
2009
-
May
2009
-
Dec
2010
-
Jul
2011
-
Feb
2011
-
Sep
2012
-
Apr
2012
-
Nov
2013
-
Jun
2014
-
Jan
2014
-
Aug
2015
-
Mar
2015
-
Oct
2016
-
May
2016
-
Dec
2017
-
Jul
2018
-
Feb
2018
-
Sep
2019
-
Apr
2019
-
Nov
2020
-
Jun
2021
-
Jan
2021
-
Aug
12-month moving average
In thousand units

16. Key Age … First-time Buyers and Retirees

17. Median Home Price… Price-to-incomeratio
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
2000
- Jan
2001
- Jan
2002
- Jan
2003
- Jan
2004
- Jan
2005
- Jan
2006
- Jan
2007
- Jan
2008
- Jan
2009
- Jan
2010
- Jan
2011
- Jan
2012
- Jan
2013
- Jan
2014
- Jan
2015
- Jan
2016
- Jan
2017
- Jan
2018
- Jan
2019
- Jan
2020
- Jan
2021
- Jan
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2000 -
Jan
2001 -
Jan
2002 -
Jan
2003 -
Jan
2004 -
Jan
2005 -
Jan
2006 -
Jan
2007 -
Jan
2008 -
Jan
2009 -
Jan
2010 -
Jan
2011 -
Jan
2012 -
Jan
2013 -
Jan
2014 -
Jan
2015 -
Jan
2016 -
Jan
2017 -
Jan
2018 -
Jan
2019 -
Jan
2020 -
Jan
2021 -
Jan

18. Mortgage Payment to Incomeis Manageable
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000
-
Jan
2000
-
Jul
2001
-
Jan
2001
-
Jul
2002
-
Jan
2002
-
Jul
2003
-
Jan
2003
-
Jul
2004
-
Jan
2004
-
Jul
2005
-
Jan
2005
-
Jul
2006
-
Jan
2006
-
Jul
2007
-
Jan
2007
-
Jul
2008
-
Jan
2008
-
Jul
2009
-
Jan
2009
-
Jul
2010
-
Jan
2010
-
Jul
2011
-
Jan
2011
-
Jul
2012
-
Jan
2012
-
Jul
2013
-
Jan
2013
-
Jul
2014
-
Jan
2014
-
Jul
2015
-
Jan
2015
-
Jul
2016
-
Jan
2016
-
Jul
2017
-
Jan
2017
-
Jul
2018
-
Jan
2018
-
Jul
2019
-
Jan
2019
-
Jul
2020
-
Jan
2020
-
Jul
2021
-
Jan
2021
-
Jul

19. Median Home Pricein Chicago (and Austin)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 -
Q1
2001 -
Q1
2002 -
Q1
2003 -
Q1
2004 -
Q1
2005 -
Q1
2006 -
Q1
2007 -
Q1
2008 -
Q1
2009 -
Q1
2010 -
Q1
2011 -
Q1
2012 -
Q1
2013 -
Q1
2014 -
Q1
2015 -
Q1
2016 -
Q1
2017 -
Q1
2018 -
Q1
2019 -
Q1
2020 -
Q1
2021 -
Q1
$ thousand

20. Mortgage Rate to Rise
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
2018
-
Jan
2018
-
Mar
2018
-
May
2018
-
Jul
2018
-
Sep
2018
-
Nov
2019
-
Jan
2019
-
Mar
2019
-
May
2019
-
Jul
2019
-
Sep
2019
-
Nov
2020
-
Jan
2020
-
Mar
2020
-
May
2020
-
Jul
2020
-
Sep
2020
-
Nov
2021
-
Jan
2021
-
Mar
2021
-
May
2021
-
Jul
2021
-
Sep
2021
-
Nov
2022
-
Jan
2022
-
Mar
2022
-
May
2022
-
Jul
2022
-
Sep
2022
-
Nov

21. Low Housing Inventory … will shoot higher in2022
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
2000
-
Jan
2001
-
Jan
2002
-
Jan
2003
-
Jan
2004
-
Jan
2005
-
Jan
2006
-
Jan
2007
-
Jan
2008
-
Jan
2009
-
Jan
2010
-
Jan
2011
-
Jan
2012
-
Jan
2013
-
Jan
2014
-
Jan
2015
-
Jan
2016
-
Jan
2017
-
Jan
2018
-
Jan
2019
-
Jan
2020
-
Jan
2021
-
Jan

22. Mortgage Delinquencyand ForeclosureStarts
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000
-
Q1
2001
-
Q1
2002
-
Q1
2003
-
Q1
2004
-
Q1
2005
-
Q1
2006
-
Q1
2007
-
Q1
2008
-
Q1
2009
-
Q1
2010
-
Q1
2011
-
Q1
2012
-
Q1
2013
-
Q1
2014
-
Q1
2015
-
Q1
2016
-
Q1
2017
-
Q1
2018
-
Q1
2019
-
Q1
2020
-
Q1
2021
-
Q1

23. Death Certificates in U.S.
2,000,000
2,200,000
2,400,000
2,600,000
2,800,000
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,400,000
3,600,000
3,800,000
2000
-
Jan
2000
-
Jul
2001
-
Jan
2001
-
Jul
2002
-
Jan
2002
-
Jul
2003
-
Jan
2003
-
Jul
2004
-
Jan
2004
-
Jul
2005
-
Jan
2005
-
Jul
2006
-
Jan
2006
-
Jul
2007
-
Jan
2007
-
Jul
2008
-
Jan
2008
-
Jul
2009
-
Jan
2009
-
Jul
2010
-
Jan
2010
-
Jul
2011
-
Jan
2011
-
Jul
2012
-
Jan
2012
-
Jul
2013
-
Jan
2013
-
Jul
2014
-
Jan
2014
-
Jul
2015
-
Jan
2015
-
Jul
2016
-
Jan
2016
-
Jul
2017
-
Jan
2017
-
Jul
2018
-
Jan
2018
-
Jul
2019
-
Jan
2019
-
Jul
2020
-
Jan
2020
-
Jul
2021
-
Jan
2021
-
Jul
12-month total

24. OfficeOccupancy losers and winners

25. HomeSales Revenue Forecast
Year Unit Sales Home Price Dollar Volume
2015 +6.3% +6.8% +12%
2016 +3.8% +5.1% +9%
2017 +1.1% +5.7% +7%
2018 -3.1% +4.9% +2%
2019 0.0% +4.9% +5%
2020 +5.6% +9.1% +15%
2021 +7% +14% +21%
2022 -2% +4% +2%

26. Thank You