Fair Housing & Fair Value: Dr. Junia Howell

1. REIMAGINING APPRAISALS FROM THE GROUND UP: Towards A Racially Equitable Appraisal Industry Junia Howell UIC Department of Sociology Chicago Association of REALTORS Fair Housing & Fair Values Virtual Event 7 April 2022

2. what do we know?

24. $275,000

25. $275,000 $68,500

47. White

48. White Black

49. White Black Latinx

50. White Black Latinx

51. White Latinx

52. White Latinx 3bd, 2ba, 1,569sqft

53. White Latinx 3bd, 2ba, 1,569sqft 3bd, 2ba, 1,331sqft

58. White Latinx 3bd, 2ba, 1,569sqft 3bd, 2ba, 1,331sqft $56,000

59. White Latinx 3bd, 2ba, 1,569sqft 3bd, 2ba, 1,331sqft $56,000 $550,000

70. Quail Valley 30 miles

79. Harris County

80. Harris County ~1 million appraisals

81. Harris County ~1 million appraisals 5 data sources

82. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 White Black Latino

83. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 White Black Latino $420,000

84. why?

85. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 White Black Latino House Characteristics

86. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 White Black Latino House Characteristics • Home and Land Square footage • Fireplace • Garage • Patio, porch, deck • Pool, tennis court

87. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 White Black Latino House Quality

88. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 White Black Latino House Quality • Year of last major renovation • Construction quality • Physical condition

90. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 White Black Latino Neighborhood Conditions

91. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 White Black Latino Neighborhood Conditions • Average House Size • Housing Stock Age • Vacancy rate • Owner Occupancy rate • Poverty proportion • Unemployment rate • Elementary School rankings • Crime rate • Park • Average Commute Time

93. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 White Black Latino Real Estate Demand

94. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 White Black Latino Real Estate Demand • Average Days on the Market • Price Cuts

97. $290,000

98. $290,000 $120,000

99. $290,000 $120,000 242%

100. all cities?

101. all cities? contract price

102. all cities? contract price comp selection

106. Uniform Appraisal Dataset

119. history

120. 1920

121. 1920

122. 1920 1929

123. 1920 1929

124. 1920 1929

125. 1920 1929

126. 1920 1929

127. 1920 1929 1932

128. 1920 1929 1932 1934

129. 1920 1929 1932 1934

130. 1920 1929 1932 1934

150. 1920 1929 1932 1934

151. 1920 1929 1932 1934

152. 1920 1929 1932 1934 1968

153. 1920 1929 1932 1934 1968

154. 1920 1929 1932 1934 1968

155. 1920 1929 1932 1934 1968 1976

156. 1920 1929 1932 1934 1968 1976 1977

157. improving?

158. AVERAGE APPRAISED VALUE 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 White Neighborhoods Communities of Color

165. AVERAGE APPRAISED VALUE 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 White Neighborhoods Communities of Color X2

166. improving?

167. improving? NO

170. NYC

171. Wichita, KS NYC

172. Wichita, KS San Francisco NYC

173. Wichita, KS San Francisco NYC Houston

174. Wichita, KS San Francisco NYC Houston Denver

175. Wichita, KS San Francisco NYC Houston Denver Chicago

176. Wichita, KS San Francisco NYC Houston Denver Chicago Atlanta

177. Wichita, KS San Francisco NYC Houston Denver Chicago Atlanta St. Louis New Orleans Austin Los Angeles San Diego Portland Seattle Detroit Cleveland DC Baltimor Philly Pittsburgh Miami Minneapolis Dallas

178. 107 metros

179. house quality neighborhood conditions

181. PREDICTED APPRAISED VALUE -50000 175000 400000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 White Neighborhoods Communities of Color

182. +$225,000

183. +$225,000 +$31,000

184. demand

187. PREDICTED APPRAISED VALUE OVERTIME 200000 250000 300000 350000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Becoming White Becoming Black/Latinx

189. $275,000 $68,500

195. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 1960 1980 2000 2020

196. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 1960 1980 2000 2020

197. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 1960 1980 2000 2020

198. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 1960 1980 2000 2020

199. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 1960 1980 2000 2020

202. whiteness is not a neutral baseline

203. why?

204. what can be done?

206. 1. New Tools

207. 2. Define Location

208. 3. Select Sales

219. 1. Reparations

220. 2. Interest Rates

221. 3. Revise MBS

223. JUNIA HOWELL JuniaHowell.com

237. 5

238. Strengthen Guardrails

239. Strengthen Guardrails Enhance Enforcement

240. Strengthen Guardrails Enhance Enforcement Build Workforce

241. Strengthen Guardrails Enhance Enforcement Build Workforce Empower Consumers

242. Strengthen Guardrails Enhance Enforcement Build Workforce Empower Consumers Improve Data

248. 1

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260. 1 2 3 4 5

261. 1 2 3 4 5

262. 1 2 3 4 5

263. 1 2 3 6 4 5

264. 1 2 3 6 4 5

265. 1 2 3 6 4 5

270. Enhance Enforcement

274. 1

275. 1

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280. 1 2 3

281. 1 2 3

282. 1 2 3

283. Enhance Enforcement

287. Build Workforce

291. 1

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296. 1 2

297. 1 2 3

298. 1 2 3

299. 1 2 3

300. Build Workforce

304. Empower Consumers

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320. 1 2 3 4 5

321. 1 2 3 4 5

322. 1 2 3 4 5

323. 1 2 3 6 4 5

324. 1 2 3 6 4 5

325. 1 2 3 6 4 5

326. Empower Consumers

330. Improve Data

334. 1

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340. 1 2 3

341. 1 2 3

342. 1 2 3

343. Improve Data

Fair Housing & Fair Value: Dr. Junia Howell

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