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We Need It Before The
End Of The Year:
What’s Your Estimate? 	

Tim Lister	

	

	

	

	

November 12, 2014
I am a Risk Management Zealot.
Estimating is Overwhelmed	

By Expectations
Estimating is Overwhelmed	

By Expectations	

• skew	

• precision	

• cargo overboard	

Oh, you mean
that on-coming
train.
Skew…	

Actual	

Duration	

Estimated Duration	

Line of
perfect estimate
Skew…	

Line of
perfect estimate	

Actual	

Duration	

Estimated Duration
Precision…the Fiction	

	

Statement:	

We ll deliver by Wednesday,	

October 31st. 	

	

Question:	

What time on the 31st? 	

precision vs. accuracy
Precision…the Fact
Uncertainties…	

•  Of Journey	

•  Of Destination	

All projects are trips of learning and decision making.
Cargo Over-Board!	

The Myth of	

Getting Back on Schedule.
What Do We Do?	

1.  Separate goals from estimates	

a good goal is a bad estimate, and vice versa
What Do We Do?	

1.  Separate goals from estimates…	

a good goal is a bad estimate, and vice versa	

	

2. Explicitly state the assumptions you made in	

your estimates.
What Do We Do?	

1.  Separate goals from estimates…	

a good goal is a bad estimate, and vice versa	

	

2. Explicitly state the assumptions you made in	

your estimates.	

	

3. Make your estimates public and continuous.
What Do We Do?	

1.  Separate goals from estimates…	

a good goal is a bad estimate, and vice versa	

	

2. Explicitly state the assumptions you made in	

your estimates.	

	

3. Make your estimates public and continuous.	

	

4. Never give a single number…band your 	

estimates..best - most likely - worst.
Tracking and Scoring Estimates…	

Estimate Quality Factor (EQF)	

time	

Value	

estimated
Tracking and Scoring Estimates…	

Estimate Quality Factor (EQF)	

time	

Value	

estimated
Tracking and Scoring Estimates…	

Estimate Quality Factor (EQF)	

time	

Value	

estimated	

done
Tracking and Scoring Estimates…	

Estimate Quality Factor (EQF)	

time	

Value	

estimated	

done	

Area of perfect estimate	

Area of perfect estimate
Tracking and Scoring Estimates…	

Estimate Quality Factor (EQF)	

time	

Value	

estimated	

done	

Deviation from perfection
EQF =	

Area of perfection 	

Deviation from perfection	

EQF = 6.5 +/-
Calibrating this…	

Highest scores = 9.0 +	

	

Typical scores = 4.0	

	

Lowest seen = 1.8
Realistic Estimating…	

Get used to it.
Tim Lister	

The Atlantic Systems Guild, Inc.	

3143 Broadway, Suite 2B	

New York NY 10027	

212 620-4282	

lister@acm.org	

systemsguild.com

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We Need It by the End of the Year: What's Your Estimate?