Business cycles
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Business cycles refer to fluctuations in overall economic activity, moving between periods of expansion and contraction. A contraction or recession occurs when aggregate economic activity declines until reaching a trough, then economic activity increases during an expansion until reaching a peak. In the US, recessions were common before World War 1, with the longest lasting 65 months from 1873-1879. The worst contraction was the Great Depression of the 1930s, when real GDP fell 30% and unemployment rose to 25%. After World War 2, economists believed business cycles became less severe, with average contractions shorter and expansions longer than before 1929.
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The term
- Business cycles refer to the periodic yet irregular up and down fluctuations in economic activity over months or years in a market economy. The cycle involves periods of economic expansion followed by periods of economic contraction.
- The first systematic theory of periodic economic crises was developed by Jean Charles Léonard de Sismondi in 1819, who attributed crises to overproduction and underconsumption. Later economists proposed different cycles of varying periodicity, including Juglar's 7-11 year cycle and Kondratiev's 45-60 year cycle.
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1Your NameInstructor’s NameClass InformationDate.docx
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Great Depression of the American Economy
Great Depression was an austerely down trend in the economic activity of the world in the decade foregoing World War II. The time duration or rather the time for the Great Depression Was not fixed. It varied from countries to countries. However, in many countries it was experienced in the year 1930 and it lasted till the midst of 1940. The time duration for the Great Depression was for a longer period of time and it was considered the longest as well as the deepest depression of the twentieth century
The beginning point of the Depression was the fall or the crash in the stock market in U.S. The fall in the prices of stock began in the year 1929 on 4th September and the stock market crashed on the 29th of October in the year 1929. This day was known as the Black Tuesday.
The Great Depression affected severely all the sections and the class of the society in the countries including the rich and the poor. Profit Margin and the prices of the goods and services severely dropped and if the amount of revenue and taxes collected also had a devastating fall which had severe negative effect on the economy. The level of Unemployment rose in U.S. and it was depicted that around twenty percent of unemployment rate increased in U.S. whereas, in other countries the level of Unemployment rose to thirty three percent which was the highest ever increase in the rate of the unemployment process.
All the cities around the world were suffering due to this depression and especially those cities or countries whose backbone was heavy industry, construction industries because this industry totally turned downed and halted in various countries. Due to the depression the agriculture sector was also effected as because the prices of the crop also fell to around sixty percent.
Due to unemployment the primary sector was also affected, activities such as mining, logging and cash cropping was effected a lot.
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The activity of business and the period of Boom and depression in the business and recession are considered or rather regarded as the normal activity for the business and are considered normal. However, what are t.
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Click here to access the section of the Center for Democracy and T.docx
Click here to access the section of the Center for Democracy and Technology (CDT) website devoted to health privacy. CDT is, by the way, a champion of online civil liberties and human rights and is dedicated to keeping the Internet open and free. Review the insights, posts, and press releases posted in CDT's health privacy section and respond to the following:
1
ECON3600
TOPIC 4 – 1929-1974: ‘New model’ economic development
The 1930s Depression
While one can play around with the figures, the magnitude of the Depression is
indicated in broad terms by the fact that, over the (relatively few) years during which
the Depression was at its most severe aggregate GDP declined, on average, by 3 per
cent per annum.
The total number of people that this had to be shared around (i.e. the total population)
grew at a markedly slower rate than had been the case in the previous decade, due
largely to an almost complete cessation of immigration and a fall in the birth rate – the
latter a reaction to economic circumstances. The population still grew, however, at
around 1 per cent per annum on average, with the result that economic growth
(defined in terms of GDP/head) declined at an average yearly rate, over the early
years of the 1930s, of 4 per cent. In the worst year of the Depression (1931) this
figure was around 10 per cent.
The very obvious manifestation of this decline was the rate of unemployment. The
level of unemployment rose markedly from about the middle of 1929 to reach a peak
of 30 per cent in the June quarter of 1932. In other words at this time nearly 1 in 3
people looking for employment was unable to find it.
Not surprisingly the economic downturn had a fundamental social effect. In personal
terms, for many people, it was a traumatic experience, in both a material and
emotional sense. For many the effects were prolonged, and for some stayed with
them, influencing their attitudes for the rest of their lives.
Causes of the Depression
As previously noted, by the closing years of the 1920s Australia was already on a
downhill path in terms of the major economic indicators. Old model economic
development, which had received a second wind, enabling the development of rural
industries that made even more intensive use of land, and which seemed to provide
the basis for the much-sought economic expansion and increase in population, was
running out of steam.
There is little doubt, however, that events in the rest of the world are the major
explanation for the Depression and certainly for its severity. As one economic
historian has put it ‘the primacy of external factors is not in doubt’.
The plunge into Depression by the United States in 1929, and the knock-on effects of
this in just about every major industrialised country (including Great Britain) had
some fundamental implications for the small Australian economy, heavily dependent
as it was on rural exports.
.
Depression
The economic depression of the 1930s, known as the Great Depression, originated in the United States in 1929 and lasted until 1939. It was the longest and most severe depression in modern history, resulting in widespread unemployment, poverty, and deflation as gross domestic product and global trade fell sharply. The causes included stock market crashes, drought, declining asset prices, bank failures, debt deflation, and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Countries began recovering in the early-to-mid 1930s as they abandoned the gold standard and expanded their money supplies, with the U.S. recovery accelerating after 1933 under President Roosevelt's New Deal programs.
Explain how the current economic recession differs from the depressio.pdf
Explain how the current economic recession differs from the depression in the 1930\'s.
Solution
The Great depression was worldwide. It was due to the collapse of the international financial
system It also resulted from the mutual adoption by many countries ( including USA) of high-
tariff policies, which were intended to keep out foreign goods in order to protect domestic
producers. The policies were called \"beggar thy neighbour\" strategies since they attempted to
\"export\" unemployment by improving one country\'s trade position and hence demand for its
goods at the expense of its trading partners And , of course, if each country keeps out foreign
goods, the volume of world trade declines, providing a contractionary influence on the world
economy
Almost every country suffered a deep recession in the 1930s, but some countries did better than
USA Sweden began an expansionary policy in the early 1930s and reduced its unemployment
relatively quicker Britain\'s economy suffered high unemployment but in 1931 it went off the
gold standard and the ensuing devaluation of the pound sterling set the stage for some
improvement. Germany grew rapidly after Hitler came to power and expanded government
spending. China escaped the recession until after 1931, because it had a floating exchange rate.
In 1938, real GNP in US rose above its 1929 level for the first time in the decade, but it was not
until 1942 , after the US formally entered world war II , that the unemployment rate finally fell
below 5%
The experience of the US in the early 1980s- the worst recession since the Great Depression,
casts doubt on the optimistism of recovery. During the 1980s, the US experienced the largest
sustained budget deficits in its peacetime history. Even so cutting spending or raising taxes was
not politically popular. Gradually, in the 1990s, the deficit began to be brought under control,
and toward the end of the decade the budget swung into surplus.This was due to raising the
prices and government spending.
By,
Nishant Bhatt.
Economic recoveries since WWII
This is a study of economic recoveries since WWII. It is also an attempt to forecast the strength of the current recovery.
CU M Com-MEBE-MOD-1-National Income Accounting-Lecture-1
This document provides an overview of macroeconomics and the key issues addressed in macroeconomics. It discusses long-term economic growth, business cycles and fluctuations in economic activity, unemployment, inflation, international economic links, and the role of fiscal and monetary policy in economic performance. The main topics in macroeconomics are determining a nation's long-run growth, causes of short-term economic fluctuations, sources of unemployment, drivers of inflation, effects of globalization and trade, and how government policy can influence prosperity and stability.
A strategy for the upturn
The document discusses strategies for investing in different asset classes as the global economy transitions out of recession. It finds that:
1) Equity markets typically bottom out around three-quarters of the way through a recession and then rally in the following months, outperforming credit for around six months as the recession ends.
2) Once the recession has ended, credit typically outperforms equities for an average of 21 months as equities underperform.
3) Government bond yields typically continue falling for around two years after a recession ends, providing opportunities to benefit from holding bonds even after the recession.
USA 1929
The Great Depression began in 1929 after the US economy first went into recession in August. The stock market crash in October 1929 marked the start of a decade of high unemployment, poverty and economic decline, as GDP fell sharply and national income decreased by 40%. Average per capita income dropped from $750 to $273 for farmers. The crash significantly reduced aggregate demand, leading to a recessionary gap as investment and consumption spending declined sharply.
The Great Depression
The Great Depression began after a period of economic growth and optimism in the 1920s. Speculation was rampant and many believed the boom would continue indefinitely. However, on October 29, 1929, the stock market crashed, marking the beginning of a decade long economic decline. GDP was halved, unemployment rose to 25%, farm prices and incomes dropped sharply. Several factors contributed to the depression, including uneven economic growth that did not benefit all sectors, high consumer debt levels, overproduction, and an unstable construction industry. Government policies also exacerbated problems through high tariffs, a regressive tax system, and lax financial regulations. President Hoover's policies failed to stimulate the economy or stabilize international finance. It was not until Roosevelt
Great depression 1929
The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression that began in the United States in 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s into early 1940s. It originated from the collapse of stock prices and was exacerbated by monetary contraction and protectionist trade policies. Global GDP fell by around 15% between 1929-1932. Unemployment rose dramatically in many nations, including reaching 25% in the US. The Depression had devastating social and economic effects globally and led to political instability in several countries. Most countries began recovering around 1933, though the world did not fully recover until massive government spending during World War II.
Recession In The World Since 1900s
The document summarizes several major recessions that have occurred since the early 1900s, including:
1) The Great Depression of 1929, which was precipitated by the crash of the American stock market in October 1929 after a period of rampant speculation. The crash led to a loss of wealth and widespread unemployment that affected the global economy.
2) The early 1990s recession which began with Black Monday in October 1987 when the Dow Jones lost over 20% of its value in a single day, and a mini-crash in 1997 that halted trading on the NYSE.
3) The 2008-2009 recession, the worst since the Great Depression, which was caused by failures of large financial institutions in the United
World Financial crises In context of Malaysia
The document summarizes several major financial crises throughout history:
- The Panic of 1907 was triggered by an attempted stock market corner and led to an economic recession in the US with bank failures. J.P. Morgan helped stabilize the banking system by pledging large sums of his own money.
- The Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression from 1930-1945 originated with the stock market crash on Black Tuesday. It had widespread effects including high unemployment and declines in industrial production, wholesale prices, and foreign trade across several countries.
- Black Monday in 1987 saw the largest one-day percentage decline in stock market history. Major market indices fell sharply that day.
- The 1997
2000 Recession
The early 2000s recession mainly affected developed countries between 2000-2001 and the United States from 2002-2003. While some economists disagree on whether it was officially a recession, it was a decline in economic activity predicted by economists due to slowing growth in East Asia from the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The recession was less severe than the previous two global recessions. The US economy was officially in recession from March-November 2001 according to the NBER.
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Great Depression was an austerely down trend in the economic activity of the world in the decade foregoing World War II. The time duration or rather the time for the Great Depression Was not fixed. It varied from countries to countries. However, in many countries it was experienced in the year 1930 and it lasted till the midst of 1940. The time duration for the Great Depression was for a longer period of time and it was considered the longest as well as the deepest depression of the twentieth century
The beginning point of the Depression was the fall or the crash in the stock market in U.S. The fall in the prices of stock began in the year 1929 on 4th September and the stock market crashed on the 29th of October in the year 1929. This day was known as the Black Tuesday.
The Great Depression affected severely all the sections and the class of the society in the countries including the rich and the poor. Profit Margin and the prices of the goods and services severely dropped and if the amount of revenue and taxes collected also had a devastating fall which had severe negative effect on the economy. The level of Unemployment rose in U.S. and it was depicted that around twenty percent of unemployment rate increased in U.S. whereas, in other countries the level of Unemployment rose to thirty three percent which was the highest ever increase in the rate of the unemployment process.
All the cities around the world were suffering due to this depression and especially those cities or countries whose backbone was heavy industry, construction industries because this industry totally turned downed and halted in various countries. Due to the depression the agriculture sector was also effected as because the prices of the crop also fell to around sixty percent.
Due to unemployment the primary sector was also affected, activities such as mining, logging and cash cropping was effected a lot.
There were various causes for the depression in the year 1929. These comprised of the primary weaknesses and definite events that led to a major depression and the way in which the severe depression profused from country to country was simply devastating. According to the historians the main cause or the real reason behind the great depression was failure of the bank and the crash or the fall of the stock market. However, the various monetarist economist such as Milton Friedman, Peter Temin and Barry Eichengreen states that the major cause behind the depression was the inappropriate action considered or adopted by the US Federal Reserve and the limited supply of the money and the decision of Britain for returning of gold standard before the World War.
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The power of macroeconomics part 1
This document provides an overview of macroeconomic concepts and the evolution of macroeconomic thought over time. It discusses:
1. The key issues in macroeconomics like inflation, unemployment, economic growth, and business cycles.
2. The development of different schools of thought like Keynesian economics, monetarism, supply-side economics, and new classical economics in response to economic conditions.
3. How the application of these different approaches impacted the economy and influenced changes in administration like Reagan, Bush, and Clinton.
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The document summarizes the business cycle, which describes the typical fluctuations in economic activity between periods of growth (prosperity) and contraction (recession/depression). It discusses how the business cycle affected Canada's economy in the 1920s-1940s, including a period of post-WWI prosperity, followed by recession after the 1929 stock market crash, a long depression in the 1930s with high unemployment, and eventual recovery aided by increased production during WWII. The cycles influenced other countries through economic interdependence and have led to modern policies like unemployment insurance.
Click here to access the section of the Center for Democracy and T.docx
Click here to access the section of the Center for Democracy and Technology (CDT) website devoted to health privacy. CDT is, by the way, a champion of online civil liberties and human rights and is dedicated to keeping the Internet open and free. Review the insights, posts, and press releases posted in CDT's health privacy section and respond to the following:
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ECON3600
TOPIC 4 – 1929-1974: ‘New model’ economic development
The 1930s Depression
While one can play around with the figures, the magnitude of the Depression is
indicated in broad terms by the fact that, over the (relatively few) years during which
the Depression was at its most severe aggregate GDP declined, on average, by 3 per
cent per annum.
The total number of people that this had to be shared around (i.e. the total population)
grew at a markedly slower rate than had been the case in the previous decade, due
largely to an almost complete cessation of immigration and a fall in the birth rate – the
latter a reaction to economic circumstances. The population still grew, however, at
around 1 per cent per annum on average, with the result that economic growth
(defined in terms of GDP/head) declined at an average yearly rate, over the early
years of the 1930s, of 4 per cent. In the worst year of the Depression (1931) this
figure was around 10 per cent.
The very obvious manifestation of this decline was the rate of unemployment. The
level of unemployment rose markedly from about the middle of 1929 to reach a peak
of 30 per cent in the June quarter of 1932. In other words at this time nearly 1 in 3
people looking for employment was unable to find it.
Not surprisingly the economic downturn had a fundamental social effect. In personal
terms, for many people, it was a traumatic experience, in both a material and
emotional sense. For many the effects were prolonged, and for some stayed with
them, influencing their attitudes for the rest of their lives.
Causes of the Depression
As previously noted, by the closing years of the 1920s Australia was already on a
downhill path in terms of the major economic indicators. Old model economic
development, which had received a second wind, enabling the development of rural
industries that made even more intensive use of land, and which seemed to provide
the basis for the much-sought economic expansion and increase in population, was
running out of steam.
There is little doubt, however, that events in the rest of the world are the major
explanation for the Depression and certainly for its severity. As one economic
historian has put it ‘the primacy of external factors is not in doubt’.
The plunge into Depression by the United States in 1929, and the knock-on effects of
this in just about every major industrialised country (including Great Britain) had
some fundamental implications for the small Australian economy, heavily dependent
as it was on rural exports.
.
Depression
The economic depression of the 1930s, known as the Great Depression, originated in the United States in 1929 and lasted until 1939. It was the longest and most severe depression in modern history, resulting in widespread unemployment, poverty, and deflation as gross domestic product and global trade fell sharply. The causes included stock market crashes, drought, declining asset prices, bank failures, debt deflation, and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Countries began recovering in the early-to-mid 1930s as they abandoned the gold standard and expanded their money supplies, with the U.S. recovery accelerating after 1933 under President Roosevelt's New Deal programs.
Explain how the current economic recession differs from the depressio.pdf
Explain how the current economic recession differs from the depression in the 1930\'s.
Solution
The Great depression was worldwide. It was due to the collapse of the international financial
system It also resulted from the mutual adoption by many countries ( including USA) of high-
tariff policies, which were intended to keep out foreign goods in order to protect domestic
producers. The policies were called \"beggar thy neighbour\" strategies since they attempted to
\"export\" unemployment by improving one country\'s trade position and hence demand for its
goods at the expense of its trading partners And , of course, if each country keeps out foreign
goods, the volume of world trade declines, providing a contractionary influence on the world
economy
Almost every country suffered a deep recession in the 1930s, but some countries did better than
USA Sweden began an expansionary policy in the early 1930s and reduced its unemployment
relatively quicker Britain\'s economy suffered high unemployment but in 1931 it went off the
gold standard and the ensuing devaluation of the pound sterling set the stage for some
improvement. Germany grew rapidly after Hitler came to power and expanded government
spending. China escaped the recession until after 1931, because it had a floating exchange rate.
In 1938, real GNP in US rose above its 1929 level for the first time in the decade, but it was not
until 1942 , after the US formally entered world war II , that the unemployment rate finally fell
below 5%
The experience of the US in the early 1980s- the worst recession since the Great Depression,
casts doubt on the optimistism of recovery. During the 1980s, the US experienced the largest
sustained budget deficits in its peacetime history. Even so cutting spending or raising taxes was
not politically popular. Gradually, in the 1990s, the deficit began to be brought under control,
and toward the end of the decade the budget swung into surplus.This was due to raising the
prices and government spending.
By,
Nishant Bhatt.
Economic recoveries since WWII
This is a study of economic recoveries since WWII. It is also an attempt to forecast the strength of the current recovery.
CU M Com-MEBE-MOD-1-National Income Accounting-Lecture-1
This document provides an overview of macroeconomics and the key issues addressed in macroeconomics. It discusses long-term economic growth, business cycles and fluctuations in economic activity, unemployment, inflation, international economic links, and the role of fiscal and monetary policy in economic performance. The main topics in macroeconomics are determining a nation's long-run growth, causes of short-term economic fluctuations, sources of unemployment, drivers of inflation, effects of globalization and trade, and how government policy can influence prosperity and stability.
A strategy for the upturn
The document discusses strategies for investing in different asset classes as the global economy transitions out of recession. It finds that:
1) Equity markets typically bottom out around three-quarters of the way through a recession and then rally in the following months, outperforming credit for around six months as the recession ends.
2) Once the recession has ended, credit typically outperforms equities for an average of 21 months as equities underperform.
3) Government bond yields typically continue falling for around two years after a recession ends, providing opportunities to benefit from holding bonds even after the recession.
USA 1929
The Great Depression began in 1929 after the US economy first went into recession in August. The stock market crash in October 1929 marked the start of a decade of high unemployment, poverty and economic decline, as GDP fell sharply and national income decreased by 40%. Average per capita income dropped from $750 to $273 for farmers. The crash significantly reduced aggregate demand, leading to a recessionary gap as investment and consumption spending declined sharply.
The Great Depression
The Great Depression began after a period of economic growth and optimism in the 1920s. Speculation was rampant and many believed the boom would continue indefinitely. However, on October 29, 1929, the stock market crashed, marking the beginning of a decade long economic decline. GDP was halved, unemployment rose to 25%, farm prices and incomes dropped sharply. Several factors contributed to the depression, including uneven economic growth that did not benefit all sectors, high consumer debt levels, overproduction, and an unstable construction industry. Government policies also exacerbated problems through high tariffs, a regressive tax system, and lax financial regulations. President Hoover's policies failed to stimulate the economy or stabilize international finance. It was not until Roosevelt
Great depression 1929
The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression that began in the United States in 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s into early 1940s. It originated from the collapse of stock prices and was exacerbated by monetary contraction and protectionist trade policies. Global GDP fell by around 15% between 1929-1932. Unemployment rose dramatically in many nations, including reaching 25% in the US. The Depression had devastating social and economic effects globally and led to political instability in several countries. Most countries began recovering around 1933, though the world did not fully recover until massive government spending during World War II.
Recession In The World Since 1900s
The document summarizes several major recessions that have occurred since the early 1900s, including:
1) The Great Depression of 1929, which was precipitated by the crash of the American stock market in October 1929 after a period of rampant speculation. The crash led to a loss of wealth and widespread unemployment that affected the global economy.
2) The early 1990s recession which began with Black Monday in October 1987 when the Dow Jones lost over 20% of its value in a single day, and a mini-crash in 1997 that halted trading on the NYSE.
3) The 2008-2009 recession, the worst since the Great Depression, which was caused by failures of large financial institutions in the United
World Financial crises In context of Malaysia
The document summarizes several major financial crises throughout history:
- The Panic of 1907 was triggered by an attempted stock market corner and led to an economic recession in the US with bank failures. J.P. Morgan helped stabilize the banking system by pledging large sums of his own money.
- The Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression from 1930-1945 originated with the stock market crash on Black Tuesday. It had widespread effects including high unemployment and declines in industrial production, wholesale prices, and foreign trade across several countries.
- Black Monday in 1987 saw the largest one-day percentage decline in stock market history. Major market indices fell sharply that day.
- The 1997
2000 Recession
The early 2000s recession mainly affected developed countries between 2000-2001 and the United States from 2002-2003. While some economists disagree on whether it was officially a recession, it was a decline in economic activity predicted by economists due to slowing growth in East Asia from the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The recession was less severe than the previous two global recessions. The US economy was officially in recession from March-November 2001 according to the NBER.
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Business cycles
- 3. WHAT IS A BUSINESS CYCLE? Business cycles are fluctuations of aggregate economic activity, not a specific variable There are expansions and contractions Aggregate economic activity declines in a contraction or recession until it reaches a trough (Fig. 8.1) Then activity increases in an expansion or boom until it reaches a peak A particularly severe recession is called a depression The sequence from one peak to the next, or from one trough to the next, is a business cycle Peaks and troughs are turning points
- 4. FIGURE 8.1 A BUSINESS CYCLE
- 5. 8.1 WHAT IS A BUSINESS CYCLE? Economic variables show comovement--they have regular and predictable patterns of behavior over the course of the business cycle The business cycle is recurrent, but not periodic Recurrent means the pattern of contraction-troughexpansion-peak occurs again and again Not being periodic means that it doesn't occur at regular, predictable intervals
- 6. THE AMERICAN BUSINESS CYCLE: THE HISTORICAL RECORD The pre-World War I period Recessions were common from 1865 to 1917, with 338 months of contraction and 382 months of expansion The longest contraction on record was 65 months, from October 1873 to March 1879, i.e., the so called “Depression of the 1870s”
- 7. THE AMERICAN BUSINESS CYCLE: THE HISTORICAL RECORD The Great Depression and World War II The worst economic contraction was the Great Depression of the 1930s Real GDP fell nearly 30% from the peak in August 1929 to the trough in March 1933 The unemployment rate rose from 3% to nearly 25% Thousands of banks failed, the stock market collapsed, many farmers went bankrupt, and international trade was halted (Trade War) There were really two business cycles in the Great Depression A contraction from August 1929 to March 1933, followed by an expansion that peaked in May 1937 (43 months) A contraction from May 1937 to June 1938 By May 1937, output had nearly returned to its 1929 peak, but the unemployment rate was high (14%) In 1939 the unemployment rate was over 17% The Great Depression ended with the start of World War II Wartime production brought the unemployment rate below 2% Real GDP almost doubled between 1939 and 1944
- 8. HAVE AMERICAN BUSINESS CYCLES BECOME LESS SEVERE? Economists believed that business cycles weren't as bad after World War II as they were before The average contraction before 1929 lasted 21 months compared to 11 months after 1945 The average expansion before 1929 lasted 25 months compared to 50 months after 1945 Romer's 1986 article sparked a strong debate, as it argued that pre-1929 data was not measured well, and that business cycles weren't that bad before 1929