"Macroeconomic Developments Report", January 2014Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic developments in Latvia and its major trade partners. Some key points:
- The IMF revised downwards GDP growth forecasts for many countries, particularly Russia, Estonia, and Finland. However, forecasts for the Eurozone were unchanged.
- In Q3 2013, exports and imports of Latvian goods contracted year-over-year due to weakening external demand and a strong base effect from previous years. Nevertheless, Latvia continued to expand its export market shares.
- In response to low inflation, the ECB and Latvijas Banka both unexpectedly lowered interest rates in November. Credit growth remained subdued as banks retained excess liquidity.
Consumer prices in February remained broadly unchanged with annual inflation at 0.5%. While prices for winter clothing offset rising prices for seasonal tourist services, external factors like slightly higher oil prices contributed to marginal fuel price rises. Inflation is expected to remain positive in the coming months, albeit potentially lower than previously forecast due to delays in electricity market liberalization.
"Macroeconomic Developments Report", March 2014Latvijas Banka
The document provides an executive summary of Latvia's Macroeconomic Developments Report for March 2014. Some key points:
- Latvia's exports weakened at the end of 2013 due to high base effects and seasonal factors, but competitiveness remained high. The current account deficit decreased to 0.8% of GDP.
- Latvia's major trade partners' growth forecasts were revised, with significant downgrades for Russia and Ukraine due to political instability. Euro area GDP growth was stronger than expected.
- As of January 2014, Latvijas Banka became a full member of the Eurosystem, implementing the euro area's single monetary policy. Loans in Latvia continued declining in December and January.
- Latvia had among
Macroeconomic Developments Report. April 2013Latvijas Banka
This document provides a macroeconomic developments report for April 2013. It summarizes economic conditions in Latvia and its major trade partners. While global growth is projected to be higher in 2013 than 2012, downside risks remain from a slower euro area recovery and issues in certain countries. Latvian exports reached peaks in late 2012, improving competitiveness, though investment activity declined. Domestic demand remains buoyed by private consumption while inflation is slowing.
This document analyzes the Russian economy in a global context and provides an outlook for Russia's economic growth prospects. Some key points:
1) Russia has the 6th largest economy globally but GDP growth has slowed in recent years from over 3% to around 1-2% expected for 2014.
2) Inflation has declined significantly since the 2000s but unemployment has not improved correspondingly.
3) Exports and imports remain dependent on oil/gas and domestic demand respectively. Weakening global growth and Russia's reliance on exports pose risks to economic growth.
4) Private consumption continues to support the economy but investments remain subdued due to uncertain outlook and falling corporate profits linked to oil prices
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2014Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of recent macroeconomic developments and forecasts for Latvia and its major trade partners. Some key points:
- The IMF revised down GDP growth forecasts for 2014 globally and for Russia, Finland, Lithuania and Estonia. Forecasts were upgraded for other countries except the US.
- Eurozone recovery is ongoing but constrained by high unemployment and debt. German growth is slowing. Estonian GDP fell in Q1 due to weak demand from Finland and Russia. Lithuanian growth relied on domestic demand.
- Latvian exports rebounded in early 2014 after declining previously, though confidence is falling due to Russian-Ukrainian tensions. Inflation and growth forecasts for Latvia were revised down for 2014.
Latvia's economy grew robustly in 2014 despite external vulnerabilities from geopolitical tensions. Exports exceeded 1 billion euros for the first time and tourism reached record highs, helping compensate for weaker Russian demand. The labor market continued improving with unemployment declining below the Eurozone average. Inflation remained subdued at 0.9% while wages grew in line with productivity. GDP is projected to grow 2% in 2015 while inflation remains around 0.9%, demonstrating sustainable growth without imbalances.
The document provides a summary of developments and trends in Israeli exports in the first half of 2014. Total exports of goods and services grew 2% to $48 billion, driven by a 13% increase in exports of services to $17 billion. Exports of goods remained virtually unchanged at $29.5 billion, with a 1.5% overall increase entirely due to a 6.5% growth in diamond exports. Industrial exports stagnated, with declines in chemicals and stagnation in electronics, while pharmaceutical exports recovered. Exports to the EU rose 10% but due to currency fluctuations, while exports to the US fell 6%, mainly in pharmaceuticals. Export concentration continued, with the top ten exporters accounting for half of total exports
"Macroeconomic Developments Report", January 2014Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic developments in Latvia and its major trade partners. Some key points:
- The IMF revised downwards GDP growth forecasts for many countries, particularly Russia, Estonia, and Finland. However, forecasts for the Eurozone were unchanged.
- In Q3 2013, exports and imports of Latvian goods contracted year-over-year due to weakening external demand and a strong base effect from previous years. Nevertheless, Latvia continued to expand its export market shares.
- In response to low inflation, the ECB and Latvijas Banka both unexpectedly lowered interest rates in November. Credit growth remained subdued as banks retained excess liquidity.
Consumer prices in February remained broadly unchanged with annual inflation at 0.5%. While prices for winter clothing offset rising prices for seasonal tourist services, external factors like slightly higher oil prices contributed to marginal fuel price rises. Inflation is expected to remain positive in the coming months, albeit potentially lower than previously forecast due to delays in electricity market liberalization.
"Macroeconomic Developments Report", March 2014Latvijas Banka
The document provides an executive summary of Latvia's Macroeconomic Developments Report for March 2014. Some key points:
- Latvia's exports weakened at the end of 2013 due to high base effects and seasonal factors, but competitiveness remained high. The current account deficit decreased to 0.8% of GDP.
- Latvia's major trade partners' growth forecasts were revised, with significant downgrades for Russia and Ukraine due to political instability. Euro area GDP growth was stronger than expected.
- As of January 2014, Latvijas Banka became a full member of the Eurosystem, implementing the euro area's single monetary policy. Loans in Latvia continued declining in December and January.
- Latvia had among
Macroeconomic Developments Report. April 2013Latvijas Banka
This document provides a macroeconomic developments report for April 2013. It summarizes economic conditions in Latvia and its major trade partners. While global growth is projected to be higher in 2013 than 2012, downside risks remain from a slower euro area recovery and issues in certain countries. Latvian exports reached peaks in late 2012, improving competitiveness, though investment activity declined. Domestic demand remains buoyed by private consumption while inflation is slowing.
This document analyzes the Russian economy in a global context and provides an outlook for Russia's economic growth prospects. Some key points:
1) Russia has the 6th largest economy globally but GDP growth has slowed in recent years from over 3% to around 1-2% expected for 2014.
2) Inflation has declined significantly since the 2000s but unemployment has not improved correspondingly.
3) Exports and imports remain dependent on oil/gas and domestic demand respectively. Weakening global growth and Russia's reliance on exports pose risks to economic growth.
4) Private consumption continues to support the economy but investments remain subdued due to uncertain outlook and falling corporate profits linked to oil prices
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2014Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of recent macroeconomic developments and forecasts for Latvia and its major trade partners. Some key points:
- The IMF revised down GDP growth forecasts for 2014 globally and for Russia, Finland, Lithuania and Estonia. Forecasts were upgraded for other countries except the US.
- Eurozone recovery is ongoing but constrained by high unemployment and debt. German growth is slowing. Estonian GDP fell in Q1 due to weak demand from Finland and Russia. Lithuanian growth relied on domestic demand.
- Latvian exports rebounded in early 2014 after declining previously, though confidence is falling due to Russian-Ukrainian tensions. Inflation and growth forecasts for Latvia were revised down for 2014.
Latvia's economy grew robustly in 2014 despite external vulnerabilities from geopolitical tensions. Exports exceeded 1 billion euros for the first time and tourism reached record highs, helping compensate for weaker Russian demand. The labor market continued improving with unemployment declining below the Eurozone average. Inflation remained subdued at 0.9% while wages grew in line with productivity. GDP is projected to grow 2% in 2015 while inflation remains around 0.9%, demonstrating sustainable growth without imbalances.
The document provides a summary of developments and trends in Israeli exports in the first half of 2014. Total exports of goods and services grew 2% to $48 billion, driven by a 13% increase in exports of services to $17 billion. Exports of goods remained virtually unchanged at $29.5 billion, with a 1.5% overall increase entirely due to a 6.5% growth in diamond exports. Industrial exports stagnated, with declines in chemicals and stagnation in electronics, while pharmaceutical exports recovered. Exports to the EU rose 10% but due to currency fluctuations, while exports to the US fell 6%, mainly in pharmaceuticals. Export concentration continued, with the top ten exporters accounting for half of total exports
"Highlights":
* Energy prices keep annual inflation below zero
* Manufacturing growth regains momentum
* Latvia's exports: a zigzag path maintained
"In Focus":
* Latvia's exports to euro area: developments after joining, autore: Daina Pelēce
Annual inflation in May dropped slightly to 0.6% due to falling food prices, while core inflation remained at its April level. GDP growth slowed to 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter, remaining around 2.8% year-over-year. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has weakened investor sentiment and external demand, posing risks to Latvia's economy. Latvijas Banka has lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2014 in light of softer growth in key export partners and uncertainty from geopolitical tensions.
1) The Latvian economy experienced a temporary slowdown in the first quarter of 2016, with GDP growth of 1.3% year-on-year but a decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a large drop in construction output.
2) Exports declined in the first quarter, driven by decreases in machinery, electrical equipment, and re-exports, while import volumes also fell.
3) Retail trade growth was supported by rising incomes in 2015 but may slow in 2016 as wage growth moderates and the contribution from lower fuel prices diminishes. Income levels, lending, demographics, and consumer habits are more important determinants of retail trade in the long run than
1) Estonia has attracted the most foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP from euro area countries and other Baltic states since adopting the euro.
2) Latvia and Lithuania saw large drops in FDI, mainly due to restructuring at Swedbank.
3) Adopting the euro is expected to help Latvia attract more foreign investment by increasing credibility, though responsible fiscal policy is also important.
Latvijas Bankas "Monthly Newsletter", 10/2016Latvijas Banka
"Highlights":
* Substantial increase in high technology sectors
* Inflation is rising, but to a large extent owing to last year's developments
* External trade in August testifies to the power of Latvian cereal exports
"In Focus":
* #reformasLV or why Latvijas Banka cares about education and healthcare?, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
Ukrainian Pharmaceutical Market Monthly - Upharmacia - Jan 2018Eirhub
The document provides an overview of the Ukrainian pharmaceutical market indicators for December 2017. Key points include:
- Pharmaceutical exports grew 6% in 2017 to $193.4 million while imports increased 10% to $1767.3 million.
- Retail sales in values grew 16.5% in 2017 to $2731 million and volumes increased 6% to 1685 million units.
- The average cost of a pharmaceutical pack was $1.47 in 2017.
Highlights:
* GDP growth at 2.6% in 2015
* Current account posted improvement
* Unemployment continues to decrease, but at a slower pace
In Focus:
Zero-based approach to government budgeting, Baiba Traidase
The Latvian economy grew at 5.6% in 2012, the fastest in Europe. Inflation continued declining to 0.3% in February 2013 due to reduced prices of natural gas and stable global energy prices. The current account deficit narrowed to 1.7% of GDP in 2012 due to strong export growth. In February, Latvia joined the reference group for the EU's inflation criterion, one of the prerequisites for joining the Eurozone. Inflation is expected to remain low in 2013 without upward pressures from domestic factors like producer prices or the labor market.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2016Latvijas Banka
This document provides a macroeconomic developments report for June 2016. It summarizes key developments in the external sector and exports, monetary policy and financial markets, domestic demand, aggregate supply, costs and prices, and the balance of payments for Latvia. It also includes forecasts for Latvia's GDP growth and inflation for 2016. Some of the main points covered include weaker-than-expected global economic growth in 2015, accommodative monetary policy decisions by the ECB, private consumption as the main driver of GDP growth in Latvia, and a revised downward GDP growth forecast for Latvia of approximately 2.0% in 2016.
Highlights:
Annual inflation stands positive
Manufacturing growth has become stronger
Government debt servicing costs have been reduced
"In Focus":
What are the different effects of oil price developments on Latvia's inflation? autori: Oļegs Tkčevs and Andrejs Bessonovs
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2015Latvijas Banka
Based on data from tLatvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
"Macroeconomic Developments Report", October 2013Latvijas Banka
The document provides a macroeconomic developments report for October 2013. It summarizes developments in Latvia's external sector and exports in the second quarter of 2013. Key points include:
- Latvia's exports continued to grow but at a slower annual rate due to weakening demand from major trade partners. Exports of base metals declined due to a factory closure.
- Imports declined in both volume and value as production and investment activity decreased. Imports of base metals and vehicles fell the most.
- Despite challenges, Latvia increased its share of world imports according to WTO data. The report examines economic conditions in Latvia's key trade partners.
A piaci konszenzusnál erősebben, az OTP Bank Elemzési Központjának előrejelzésénél gyengébben alakult az első negyedéves GDP. Az adat megerősítette az OTP elemzőinek az idei év egészére vonatkozó 4%-os növekedési várakozását, a kockázatok felfelé mutatnak.
Inflation in Latvia grew slightly to 0.8% in August. Exports and imports increased in July despite geopolitical tensions, growing 7.4% and falling 3.5% respectively. Manufacturing output fell 2.6% annually but some sectors such as food and wood products saw growth. Borrowing costs in Latvia have decreased since adopting the euro in January 2014, with interest rates on loans falling over 1 percentage point for some enterprises. However, credit spreads may only gradually shrink over the coming years.
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing buoyant in May
* Exports withstand geopolitical circumstances
* Growth trends in lending stabilize
"In Focus":
* Overproduction of economists and lawyers in Latvia? Let's debunk this myth, autori: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs and Kārlis Vilerts
The Latvian economy experienced slower GDP growth of 1% in 2016 due to delayed absorption of EU funds, but fundamentals remain robust. While industrial production and exports exceeded records, the labor market continued improving. The 2016 slowdown was temporary and GDP growth is expected to rebound in 2017. To accelerate convergence with Western Europe, the focus should shift to supply-side reforms in public institutions, education, and healthcare to strengthen potential GDP growth.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2014Latvijas Banka
The document summarizes macroeconomic developments in December 2014. It reports that growth was weak in many of Latvia's major trade partners in late 2014. The IMF lowered GDP growth projections for the Eurozone, Germany, Sweden, Estonia and Lithuania for 2014 and 2015. Latvia's exports to Russia declined in the first nine months of 2014, though exports to other countries increased. The ECB lowered interest rates and implemented new bond purchase programs to stimulate lending and the Eurozone economy. Latvian lending continued a slow downward trend in late 2014 despite ECB actions. Inflation in Latvia remained low at 0.5% in October 2014.
Polish labour market. Basic facts and figuresPiotr Arak
This document summarizes key facts and figures about the Polish labour market, including unemployment rates, employment rates, wages, and temporary employment. It also outlines several recent policy developments in Poland, such as an increase to the minimum wage in 2017, the introduction of a minimum hourly wage, expansion of family benefits, and plans to lower the retirement age.
Affordable housing in Cavite rush rush for sale/brand new houses rush for sal...Ma Erica Victoria Sacdalan
The document contains contact information for Cora/Eric Sacdalan regarding real estate properties for sale in General Trias, Cavite. Potential buyers are encouraged to call the listed phone numbers or visit the listed websites for inquiries and more details about available homes that are not in flood-prone or fault line areas, with down payment payable in 18 months and financing options available.
Comportamiento de pago de los países en el Mundo: Análisis de ChinaINFORMA D&B
China se sitúa en un grupo de países que se caracterizan por tener una proporción de pagos a más de 90 días que superan el 5%, pero también por un porcentaje de pagos puntuales entre el 30% y 50%.
En 2015, el 33,2% de las empresas chinas analizadas pagaban puntualmente mientras el 6,1% lo hacía con una demora superior a 90 días.
"Highlights":
* Energy prices keep annual inflation below zero
* Manufacturing growth regains momentum
* Latvia's exports: a zigzag path maintained
"In Focus":
* Latvia's exports to euro area: developments after joining, autore: Daina Pelēce
Annual inflation in May dropped slightly to 0.6% due to falling food prices, while core inflation remained at its April level. GDP growth slowed to 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter, remaining around 2.8% year-over-year. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has weakened investor sentiment and external demand, posing risks to Latvia's economy. Latvijas Banka has lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2014 in light of softer growth in key export partners and uncertainty from geopolitical tensions.
1) The Latvian economy experienced a temporary slowdown in the first quarter of 2016, with GDP growth of 1.3% year-on-year but a decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a large drop in construction output.
2) Exports declined in the first quarter, driven by decreases in machinery, electrical equipment, and re-exports, while import volumes also fell.
3) Retail trade growth was supported by rising incomes in 2015 but may slow in 2016 as wage growth moderates and the contribution from lower fuel prices diminishes. Income levels, lending, demographics, and consumer habits are more important determinants of retail trade in the long run than
1) Estonia has attracted the most foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP from euro area countries and other Baltic states since adopting the euro.
2) Latvia and Lithuania saw large drops in FDI, mainly due to restructuring at Swedbank.
3) Adopting the euro is expected to help Latvia attract more foreign investment by increasing credibility, though responsible fiscal policy is also important.
Latvijas Bankas "Monthly Newsletter", 10/2016Latvijas Banka
"Highlights":
* Substantial increase in high technology sectors
* Inflation is rising, but to a large extent owing to last year's developments
* External trade in August testifies to the power of Latvian cereal exports
"In Focus":
* #reformasLV or why Latvijas Banka cares about education and healthcare?, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
Ukrainian Pharmaceutical Market Monthly - Upharmacia - Jan 2018Eirhub
The document provides an overview of the Ukrainian pharmaceutical market indicators for December 2017. Key points include:
- Pharmaceutical exports grew 6% in 2017 to $193.4 million while imports increased 10% to $1767.3 million.
- Retail sales in values grew 16.5% in 2017 to $2731 million and volumes increased 6% to 1685 million units.
- The average cost of a pharmaceutical pack was $1.47 in 2017.
Highlights:
* GDP growth at 2.6% in 2015
* Current account posted improvement
* Unemployment continues to decrease, but at a slower pace
In Focus:
Zero-based approach to government budgeting, Baiba Traidase
The Latvian economy grew at 5.6% in 2012, the fastest in Europe. Inflation continued declining to 0.3% in February 2013 due to reduced prices of natural gas and stable global energy prices. The current account deficit narrowed to 1.7% of GDP in 2012 due to strong export growth. In February, Latvia joined the reference group for the EU's inflation criterion, one of the prerequisites for joining the Eurozone. Inflation is expected to remain low in 2013 without upward pressures from domestic factors like producer prices or the labor market.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2016Latvijas Banka
This document provides a macroeconomic developments report for June 2016. It summarizes key developments in the external sector and exports, monetary policy and financial markets, domestic demand, aggregate supply, costs and prices, and the balance of payments for Latvia. It also includes forecasts for Latvia's GDP growth and inflation for 2016. Some of the main points covered include weaker-than-expected global economic growth in 2015, accommodative monetary policy decisions by the ECB, private consumption as the main driver of GDP growth in Latvia, and a revised downward GDP growth forecast for Latvia of approximately 2.0% in 2016.
Highlights:
Annual inflation stands positive
Manufacturing growth has become stronger
Government debt servicing costs have been reduced
"In Focus":
What are the different effects of oil price developments on Latvia's inflation? autori: Oļegs Tkčevs and Andrejs Bessonovs
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2015Latvijas Banka
Based on data from tLatvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
"Macroeconomic Developments Report", October 2013Latvijas Banka
The document provides a macroeconomic developments report for October 2013. It summarizes developments in Latvia's external sector and exports in the second quarter of 2013. Key points include:
- Latvia's exports continued to grow but at a slower annual rate due to weakening demand from major trade partners. Exports of base metals declined due to a factory closure.
- Imports declined in both volume and value as production and investment activity decreased. Imports of base metals and vehicles fell the most.
- Despite challenges, Latvia increased its share of world imports according to WTO data. The report examines economic conditions in Latvia's key trade partners.
A piaci konszenzusnál erősebben, az OTP Bank Elemzési Központjának előrejelzésénél gyengébben alakult az első negyedéves GDP. Az adat megerősítette az OTP elemzőinek az idei év egészére vonatkozó 4%-os növekedési várakozását, a kockázatok felfelé mutatnak.
Inflation in Latvia grew slightly to 0.8% in August. Exports and imports increased in July despite geopolitical tensions, growing 7.4% and falling 3.5% respectively. Manufacturing output fell 2.6% annually but some sectors such as food and wood products saw growth. Borrowing costs in Latvia have decreased since adopting the euro in January 2014, with interest rates on loans falling over 1 percentage point for some enterprises. However, credit spreads may only gradually shrink over the coming years.
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing buoyant in May
* Exports withstand geopolitical circumstances
* Growth trends in lending stabilize
"In Focus":
* Overproduction of economists and lawyers in Latvia? Let's debunk this myth, autori: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs and Kārlis Vilerts
The Latvian economy experienced slower GDP growth of 1% in 2016 due to delayed absorption of EU funds, but fundamentals remain robust. While industrial production and exports exceeded records, the labor market continued improving. The 2016 slowdown was temporary and GDP growth is expected to rebound in 2017. To accelerate convergence with Western Europe, the focus should shift to supply-side reforms in public institutions, education, and healthcare to strengthen potential GDP growth.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2014Latvijas Banka
The document summarizes macroeconomic developments in December 2014. It reports that growth was weak in many of Latvia's major trade partners in late 2014. The IMF lowered GDP growth projections for the Eurozone, Germany, Sweden, Estonia and Lithuania for 2014 and 2015. Latvia's exports to Russia declined in the first nine months of 2014, though exports to other countries increased. The ECB lowered interest rates and implemented new bond purchase programs to stimulate lending and the Eurozone economy. Latvian lending continued a slow downward trend in late 2014 despite ECB actions. Inflation in Latvia remained low at 0.5% in October 2014.
Polish labour market. Basic facts and figuresPiotr Arak
This document summarizes key facts and figures about the Polish labour market, including unemployment rates, employment rates, wages, and temporary employment. It also outlines several recent policy developments in Poland, such as an increase to the minimum wage in 2017, the introduction of a minimum hourly wage, expansion of family benefits, and plans to lower the retirement age.
Affordable housing in Cavite rush rush for sale/brand new houses rush for sal...Ma Erica Victoria Sacdalan
The document contains contact information for Cora/Eric Sacdalan regarding real estate properties for sale in General Trias, Cavite. Potential buyers are encouraged to call the listed phone numbers or visit the listed websites for inquiries and more details about available homes that are not in flood-prone or fault line areas, with down payment payable in 18 months and financing options available.
Comportamiento de pago de los países en el Mundo: Análisis de ChinaINFORMA D&B
China se sitúa en un grupo de países que se caracterizan por tener una proporción de pagos a más de 90 días que superan el 5%, pero también por un porcentaje de pagos puntuales entre el 30% y 50%.
En 2015, el 33,2% de las empresas chinas analizadas pagaban puntualmente mientras el 6,1% lo hacía con una demora superior a 90 días.
Estudio Demografía Empresarial Febrero 2016INFORMA D&B
Durante los dos primeros meses del año, parte de los datos de demografía empresarial resultan preocupantes. Por un lado, los indicadores de mortandad empresarial no muestran una clara tendencia a la baja. Si el número de Concursos sigue disminuyendo, no podemos olvidar que desde la entrada en vigor de la nueva legislación, se usan cada vez más pre-concursos y acuerdos extra judiciales, aunque no existan estadísticas oficiales al respecto. Preocupa también que las Disoluciones sigan una tendencia alcista, febrero es el sexto mes de aumento consecutivo. Por otro lado, los datos que Informa estima sobre los cierres no oficiales indican también un aumento este mes del 157,53% pero una disminución del 58,88% en lo que va de año. Por otro lado, analizando los datos de creación, podemos ver que la constitución de sociedades sigue al alza tanto en febrero como en lo que va de año, mientras la inversión de capital sigue por debajo de los datos de 2015.
Estudio de Demografia empresarial - Octubre 2015INFORMA D&B
Este documento presenta datos sobre la demografía empresarial en España en octubre de 2015. Mientras que los datos de cierre de empresas continúan siendo inferiores al año pasado, los datos de creación de empresas se estancan y la inversión empresarial disminuye. Específicamente, las constituciones de sociedades disminuyeron un 1,36% y la inversión un 8,79% respecto al año anterior. Además, la creación de empresas en sectores de alta tecnología disminuyó un 12,16% y la in
Análisis de pagos en el mundo. Mayo 2016 INFORMA D&B
Gracias a la cobertura mundial de la base DunTrade®, en este análisis se pueden apreciar las diferencias de prácticas de pago entre varios países. Para la comparación de los comportamientos de pago en este análisis se han utilizado dos indicadores: la proporción de pagos puntuales sobre el total y la de pagos que superan los 90 días.
Comportamiento de pago de los países en el Mundo: Análisis de GreciaINFORMA D&B
Gracias a la cobertura mundial de la base DunTrade®, podemos apreciar las diferencias de prácticas de pago entre varios países. En este caso, sobre Grecia
El FMI ha recortado sus previsiones de crecimiento mundial para 2016 y 2017 debido a la incertidumbre creada por el Brexit. El FMI mejora ligeramente las perspectivas para Latinoamérica, previendo un crecimiento del 0,4% en 2016 y 1,6% en 2017. Pan American Energy invertirá 1.400 millones de dólares en proyectos energéticos en el sur de Argentina. Colombia celebrará un referéndum sobre el acuerdo de paz con las FARC.
Informe País principales mercados Europeos- Mayo 2016Ignacio Jimenez
This document provides a country report on the main Western European markets in May 2016. It includes individual sections on 12 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Each country section includes information on key economic indicators for 2013-2017, their main export and import partners, industry forecasts, and the insolvency environment. The report indicates that most Western European economies are expected to see modest GDP growth in 2016 and 2017, while corporate insolvency levels are forecast to decline slightly or remain elevated in some countries.
Forecast of development of ukrainian economy in 2017Anatoliy Amelin
The Ukrainian economy showed moderate growth in 2016, with GDP expected to increase 1.1% for the year. Inflation eased to an expected 12% for 2016. Exports stagnated due to relatively low commodity prices. Imports of goods continued to decline, while investment imports increased, signaling positive trends. However, exports declined faster than imports, resulting in a negative trade balance that is expected to widen to $4.9 billion, or 5% of GDP. Overall the recovery remains weak, with investment and domestic demand still low. Continued reforms are needed to strengthen energy independence and improve competitiveness.
Az eddig beérkezett adatok alapján akár 5%-kal is nőhetett a hazai GDP az első negyedévben. Az év első felében nagyon erős dinamikára számítunk, a második félévben azonban az egyre intenzívebb import-kereslet és bázishatás miatt már lassulni fog a gazdaság bővülése, 2019-ben pedig 3%-ig mérséklődhet a növekedési ütem.
Flash Report - Hungarian Inflation - 11 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2%-ra emelkedett az éves bázisú fogyasztói árindex márciusban, azonban továbbra is számos hatás fékezi az árnyomás erősödését. Idén 2% közelében maradhat az infláció, jövőre azonban akár gyors emelkedést is láthatunk, ha az egyszeri tételek hatása kifut.
Promoting a stronger and more inclusive economy OECD Economic Survey Hungary ...OECD, Economics Department
The OECD Economic Survey of Hungary 2019 document discusses several key points:
1) The Hungarian economy is growing strongly but policies are needed to address risks to the recovery.
2) Greater economic inclusiveness would bolster growth as poverty and unemployment remain issues in some regions.
3) Population aging will significantly increase costs related to pensions and healthcare, which need to be addressed through reforms.
The Spanish economy grew 0.8% in the second quarter of 2016 due to increases in household consumption and investment. Annual growth was 3.2%. Public investment in Spain has dropped 54% since 2009 due to fiscal consolidation, leaving Spain with the lowest public investment rates among major European economies. The public debt of autonomous communities rose to over 1 trillion euros, or 100.9% of GDP, placing Spain among the most indebted EU nations. Exports increased 2.3% in the first quarter while imports dropped 0.5%, lowering the trade deficit. Spain has the sixth highest rate of young people neither working nor studying in the EU.
GDP growth in India picked up to 7.9% in Q1 2016 driven by private and public consumption, while exports contracted and investment growth deteriorated. Overall growth for FY2015/2016 was 7.6%. Private consumption will remain strong but sluggish investment growth and reluctance of banks to provide new credit are causes for concern. Euler Hermes expects GDP growth to stabilize at 7.6% in FY2016/2017.
We are glad to share with you the Global M&A Partners' Industrial Insider our quarterly report on M&A transactions. Should you have any queries or M&A project, please contact your local Global M&A Partners industrial sector team member.
El Informe País sobre España muestra un crecimiento sólido, sostenible y más intenso que otros mercados periféricos de la Eurozona.
Tras dos años de contracción, los últimos indicadores de actividad señalan que la recuperación económica de España está tomando impulso. El informe país sobre España que hoy difundimos a nuestros asegurados en 50 países, muestra un rendimiento económico resistente y sostenible y una recuperación más intensa que la de otros mercados periféricos de la Eurozona.
La economía española lleva ya cuatro trimestres seguidos de crecimiento y en el segundo trimestre de 2014, el PIB registró el mayor incremento trimestral desde el primer trimestre de 2007. El aumento de la demanda externa y la mayor confianza empresarial han estimulado la inversión empresarial, mientras que la recuperación del mercado laboral y la demanda contenida de bienes de consumo duraderos han incrementado el consumo privado. Los componentes privados de la demanda interna, básicamente consumo e inversiones, han sido el pilar del crecimiento del PIB en lo que va de 2014 y se espera que se mantengan su solidez en la segunda mitad del año.
El crecimiento está teniendo un impacto positivo en el mercado laboral. El desempleo ha registrado su mayor descenso desde 2006. No obstante, aún existen algunos problemas importantes en el mercado laboral español: el 15% de la población activa ha permanecido desempleada durante más de un año y el desempleo juvenil sigue siendo alto, el 55%. Se espera que el desempleo no baje del 20% durante al menos otros cuatro años.
Actualmente, toda la Eurozona se enfrenta a una reducción de la inflación, lo que inquieta a algunos de sus Estados miembros como España, donde la inflación ha caído bajo cero en 2014. Las medidas anunciadas por el Banco Central Europeo y la creciente demanda interna deberían llevar al aumento de precios de consumo hasta el 0,9% en 2015.
La competitividad internacional de España está mejorando y el sector exportador es relativamente sólido y competitivo. 2007 ha sido el único año reciente en el que la contribución de las exportaciones netas al PIB fue negativa. La comparación basada en el tipo de cambio efectivo real, que mide la competitividad internacional de un país al modificarse costes y precios, muestra que todavía hay un margen considerable de mejora. En 2013, la balanza por cuenta corriente registró su primer superávit desde 1986 y en 2014 se espera otro superávit, reflejo de las mejoras estructurales en competitividad internacional. España registró un sólido rendimiento en exportaciones en 2013, ofreciendo una favorable mezcla de productos y diversificando los mercados de exportación. Aunque Francia y Alemania siguen siendo destinos clave de exportación, España ha aumentado los envíos a mercados emergentes en África, América Latina y Oriente Medio. Asimismo, la inversión extranjera directa ha mejorado y se encuentra a buen n
1) The document analyzes macroeconomic indicators and forecasts for the Polish economy from 2013-2023. It finds that Poland experienced the second fastest economic growth in the EU from 2004-2018 at an average annual rate of 3.92%.
2) Key indicators like GDP, employment, exports, and consumer spending have grown in recent years, but productivity and wages in agriculture remain low compared to other sectors. Further fiscal consolidation is needed to reduce the budget deficit and debt.
3) The economy is projected to remain strong in the short-term, supported by monetary and fiscal policies as well as EU transfers. However, risks include a potential slowdown in the global economy and challenges in reducing unemployment over the long-run
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, December 2016DIXI Group
The document summarizes Ukraine's economic situation and 2017 budget. Key points:
- Ukraine adopted a state budget for 2017 consistent with IMF parameters, but significantly raised minimum wages posing risks to stability.
- Possible policy changes under the new US administration create uncertainty for Ukraine.
- GDP growth is estimated at 1-1.5% in 2016 and projected to be 2% in 2017. Inflation ended 2016 at 12.4% and is projected to decrease to high single digits in 2017.
- The budget projects a deficit of 3% of GDP, in line with IMF targets, and will rely heavily on borrowing to finance expenditures.
"Highlights":
Consumer prices are on the rise though annual inflation remains negative
Surplus in the current account for the second consecutive quarter
Lending is back
"In Focus":
Macroeconomic forecasts, by: Igors Kasjanovs
Unemployment in Spain fell by 678,200 people in 2015 to 4,779,500 (20.9% of the active population) as 525,100 new jobs were created, mainly in the private sector. The Spanish economy grew by 0.8% in Q4 2015 and 3.5% year-over-year, led by increased household spending. Meanwhile, inflation fell to -0.3% in January due to lower fuel and electricity prices.
This forecast was done in a highly volatile environment and under assumptions that may not turn out to be true. We assume most of the economic activity restrictions to be lifted by the end of the second quarter. We expect substantial damage to the economy from domestic restrictions and lower external demand. A gradual recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than the pre-crisis level. We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia. We used UAH 28.7 per USD as an average 2020 exchange rate in forecast calculations.
This document provides a summary of economic indicators and forecasts for Canada, Mexico, and the USA. For Canada, key points are that real GDP growth is expected to slow to 1% in 2015 due to lower oil prices, but rebound to 2% in 2016. Private consumption growth is forecast to remain subdued at 1.9% in 2015. Industrial production is predicted to contract 1.3% in 2015 while fixed investment decreases 2.7% due to reductions in the energy sector. Government debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to rise to 73.5% in 2015. For Mexico, GDP growth is forecast to be 2.3% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Inflation is estimated at
Prévisions économiques du printemps 2019 pour le LuxembourgPaperjam_redaction
Luxembourg's GDP is forecast to grow at a steady pace over 2019 and 2020, driven mainly by domestic demand supported by strong labor market conditions. Inflation is set to remain under 2.0% as moderating oil prices offset wage growth and tax measures. The headline budget surplus is forecast to decline from recent high levels as revenue growth slows and expenditures rise, falling to 1.4% of GDP in 2019 and 1.1% in 2020.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, June 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
The government drafted a pension reform and introduced the bills to the Parliament. In its updated memorandum, the IMF is also demanding a land reform and additional measures against corruption. We think the next IMF tranche may be released after the summer break, likely in autumn 2017.
Recent economic indicators point to better economic conditions: Q1 GDP has been slightly revised upwards to 2.5% yoy, and the May figures for industrial production (1.2% yoy) and retail sales (10.7% yoy) have been better than expected. Nevertheless, with cumulative industrial output down in the first five months of 2017, we lowered our GDP growth estimate for 2017 from 2% to 1.5% yoy.
The inflation rate accelerated to 13.5 % yoy in May, due to higher food prices. Nevertheless, the National Bank may cut the key interest rate further by 50bp to 12% in order to support economic growth at its next meeting on Thursday, 6 July.
FX reserves reached USD 17.6 bn in end-May, given a favourable situation on the FX market allowing for FX purchases. The exchange rate traded rather stable around USD/UAH 26.
The NBU tweaked FX market regulation, simplifying investment abroad and FX forward transactions as well as introducing electronic FX transfer licenses for individuals.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5% yoy for the time being.
Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH 26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at 12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX market were removed or may be removed soon.
Poland's economy expanded by 1.6% in 2013, making it the 23rd largest economy globally. The recovery is expected to gain traction in 2014, with forecast GDP growth of 2.9% driven by private and public consumption and net exports. Business optimism and expectations for revenue and profit growth have increased significantly. However, bureaucracy remains the top constraint reported by businesses. Support for joining the euro has fallen in Poland following issues in other eurozone countries, and most businesses do not expect Poland to adopt the euro before 2017.
Global growth continues to remain tepid. In US, new data releases are pointing towards a mild recovery, but not compelling enough to force the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance. Labour market is recovering slowly and unemployment rate has continued to decline. On the domestic front, inflation has continued to remain subdued. Given the downward trajectory of inflation and limited upside risks in the wake of benign global commodity prices, the Central Bank chose to cut interest rates by 50 bps in end-September 2015.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the growth prospects of Euro Area economies and US economy, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, data trends in IIP, inflation, trade and monetary policy are analysed. Corporate Performance section analyses the corporate results for 1QFY16. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on ‘Make in India and the Potential for Job Creation’. In Focus of the Month, the important issue of ‘Financial Inclusion’ has been covered.
Similar to Atradius Country Report - Republica Checa_Hungria_Polonia_rusia_Eslovaquia_Turquia Sept16 (20)
- 97% of companies surveyed offered payment terms to customers, though very small enterprises granted shorter terms of 35% under 30 days versus 10% for larger companies.
- 82% of companies reported payment delays in the past year, with the majority saying delays were longer and more frequent than in 2022.
- Payment delays disproportionately affected small and medium enterprises, with 70% reporting increased delays compared to 53% of larger companies. Late payments significantly impacted the cash flow of half of very small companies.
- While most companies experienced delays under 30 days, 44% faced over a month of delays. On average, delays were 38 days in France versus shorter terms in other European countries.
El documento presenta gráficos y tablas sobre la licitación pública en España a lo largo de los últimos 12 meses y en el mes de agosto de 2023. Muestra el volumen licitado por diferentes administraciones como la general, autonómica y local, así como por tipo de obra como edificación, transporte e hidráulica. Proporciona detalles sobre licitaciones específicas de diferentes ministerios y comunidades autónomas.
Las ventas no han aumentado en el 59% de las pymes debido a la alta inflación y debilidad del consumo. Tres de cada cuatro pymes han evitado trasladar completamente el aumento de costes a los precios, pero los márgenes se han estrechado en el 60% de las empresas y la viabilidad se ve comprometida en el 13%. Las principales preocupaciones de las pymes son los altos costes energéticos, laborales, fiscales e impositivos.
ICEX Analisis del Comercio Exterior Español de Enero a Mayo 2023Jaime Cubillo Fleming
Este documento presenta un análisis del comercio exterior español en 2023, incluyendo datos sobre la balanza comercial, la evolución de las exportaciones e importaciones, y los principales sectores exportados. Muestra que las exportaciones aumentaron un 6,4% entre enero y mayo de 2023, mientras que las importaciones disminuyeron un 1,4%, reduciendo el déficit comercial. Los 50 principales sectores representaron el 66% de las exportaciones totales en ese período, siendo los automóviles, productos farmacéuticos y equipos para
Este documento proporciona información sobre el perfil de los exportadores españoles entre 2018 y mayo de 2023. Resume datos como el número total de exportadores, exportadores regulares, exportaciones por tramos de valor y variaciones interanuales. El objetivo es analizar la evolución de los exportadores españoles y su contribución a las exportaciones totales según diferentes parámetros en el periodo especificado.
1) El documento analiza los riesgos y perspectivas de crecimiento de las empresas españolas en el contexto de la elevada inflación y el aumento de los tipos de interés. 2) Más del 60% de las empresas españolas encuestadas esperan que estos factores afecten a los pagos de sus clientes en los próximos 12 meses. 3) Casi la mitad de las compañías planea endeudarse más para seguir siendo competitiva, aunque la mayoría espera que aumenten los tipos de interés.
The International Credit Insurance & Surety Association (ICISA) brings together the world's leading credit insurance and surety bond companies. Founded in 1928, ICISA members now account for 95% of the private credit insurance business and facilitate trade and economic development globally by insuring $3 trillion in receivables and guaranteeing billions in construction projects. ICISA is headquartered in Amsterdam.
El documento resume los resultados de la Encuesta de Préstamos Bancarios del segundo trimestre de 2023 en España. Señala que los bancos continuaron endureciendo los criterios de concesión de préstamos y las condiciones, aunque a un ritmo más moderado. También desciende la demanda de préstamos de forma generalizada aunque de manera más moderada que en el trimestre anterior. Para el tercer trimestre se espera una nueva reducción tanto de la oferta como de la demanda de crédito de forma similar a la del segundo trimestre.
El resumen analiza las insolvencias de personas jurídicas en el segundo trimestre de 2023 en España. Se observa un incremento del 4,9% en el número de concursos respecto al mismo periodo del año anterior. Las empresas micro y con antigüedad entre 5 y 10 años son las más afectadas. Cataluña y Galicia registraron los mayores aumentos porcentuales en concursos. Sectores como agroalimentación, automoción y metal presentaron incrementos en el número de insolvencias.
Barómetro de CEPYME #LaPymeHabla de julio, la #morosidad es una de las principales preocupaciones para el 20% de las empresas que han participado en el estudio
Enlace a post publicado en Linkedin sobre el apoyo estatal al sector del seguro de crédito.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/aseguradoras-de-cr%C3%A9dito-unespa-consorcio-seguros-cubillo-fleming/?published=t
Este documento presenta varias medidas económicas y de reforma estructural aprobadas por el Consejo de Ministros de España el 27 de marzo de 2009. Entre las medidas se encuentran la aprobación de una Ley Paraguas y una Ley Ómnibus para facilitar el acceso a actividades de servicios, reducciones en los tipos de interés legal y de demora tributaria, más garantías para inversores en emisiones avaladas por el Estado, y una reforma de la Ley Concursal para favorecer la pervivencia de empresas viables.
El documento presenta gráficos y tablas sobre el volumen de licitación pública en España a lo largo de los últimos 12 meses y en el mes de febrero de 2020, desglosado por tipo de administración (general, autonómica y local) y tipo de obra (edificación, transportes, hidráulicas, medio ambiente y urbanización). Los gráficos muestran las variaciones interanuales del volumen licitado, siendo febrero de 2020 menor que el mismo mes del año anterior en la mayoría de las administraciones.
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck mari...Donc Test
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
The Impact of Generative AI and 4th Industrial RevolutionPaolo Maresca
This infographic explores the transformative power of Generative AI, a key driver of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Discover how Generative AI is revolutionizing industries, accelerating innovation, and shaping the future of work.
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
Learn in-depth about Dogecoin's trajectory and stay informed with 36crypto's essential and up-to-date information about the crypto space.
Our presentation delves into Dogecoin's potential future, exploring whether it's destined to skyrocket to the moon or face a downward spiral. In addition, it highlights invaluable insights. Don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your crypto understanding!
https://36crypto.com/the-future-of-dogecoin-how-high-can-this-cryptocurrency-reach/
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcriptynfqplhm
办理美国SDSU毕业证书制作南达科他州立大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做SDSU留信网教留服认证海牙认证改SDSU成绩单GPA做SDSU假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请南达科他州立大学South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
2. Contents
2
Atradius STAR Political Risk Rating Page 3
Czech Republic Page 4
Hungary Page 6
Poland Page 8
Russia Page 10
Slovakia Page 14
Turkey Page 16
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3. 3
Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European economies:
Atradius STAR Political Risk Rating*:
Czech Republic: 3 (Moderate-Low Risk) - Stable
Hungary: 5 (Moderate Risk) - Positive
Poland: 3 (Moderate-Low Risk) - Negative
Russia: 5 (Moderate Risk) - Positive
Slovakia: 3 (Moderate-Low Risk) - Positive
Turkey: 5 (Moderate Risk) - Stable
* The STAR rating runs on a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 represents the lowest risk and 10 the highest risk.
The 10 rating steps are aggregated into five broad categories to facilitate their interpretation in terms
of credit quality. Starting from the most benign part of the quality spectrum, these categories range
from ‘Low Risk’, ‘Moderate-Low Risk’, ‘Moderate Risk’, ‘Moderate-High Risk’ to ‘High Risk’, with a separate
grade reserved for ‘Very High Risk.’
In addition to the 10-point scale, rating modifiers are associated with each scale step: ‘Positive’, ‘Stable’,
and ‘Negative’. These rating modifiers allow further granularity and differentiate more finely between
countries in terms of risk.
For further information about the Atradius STAR rating, please click here.
4. Czech
Republic
4
Germany: 30.1 %
Poland: 9.0 %
China: 8.4 %
Slovakia: 6.6 %
The Netherlands: 5.0 %
Germany: 32.5 %
Slovakia: 9.0 %
Poland: 5.9 %
United Kingdom: 5.3 %
France: 5.1 %
Main import sources
(2015, % of total)
Main export markets
(2015, % of total)
Czech Republic industries performance outlook
Agriculture
Electronics/ICT
Automotive/
Transport
Financial Services
Chemicals/
Pharma
Food
Construction
Machines/
Engineering
Construction
Materials
Consumer
Durables
Paper Services Steel TextilesMetals
September 2016
Key indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*
Real GDP (y-on-y, % change) -0.5 2.7 4.6 2.5 2.7
Consumer price (y-on-y, % change) 1.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 2.2
Real private consumption (y-on-y, % change) 0.5 1.8 3.1 2.8 2.6
Retail sales (y-on-y, % change) -1.1 5.7 6.4 4.7 2.6
Industrial production (y-on-y, % change) -0.1 5.0 4.6 3.9 4.1
Unemployment rate (%) 7.0 6.1 5.1 4.2 4.1
Real fixed investment (y-on-y, % change) -2.5 3.9 9.1 3.9 3.2
Export of goods and non-factor services
0.2 8.7 7.9 5.2 4.1
(y-on-y, % change)
Current account/GDP (%) -1.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 -0.2
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -1.9 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9
* forecast Source: IHS
Good:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is benign / business performance
in the sector is above its long-term
trend.
Fair:
The credit risk credit situation in
the sector is average / business
performance in the sector is stable.
Poor:
The credit risk situation in the
sector is relatively high / business
performance in the sector is below
long-term trend.
Bleak:
The cedit risk situation in the sector
is poor / business performance in the
sector is weak compared to its long-
term trend.
Excellent:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is strong / business performance in
the sector is strong compared to its
long-term trend.
5. 5
Weaker, but still solid growth expected
In 2015 the Czech economy recorded a robust 4.6% growth, thanks to higher
private consumption, EU-financed public investment and buoyant exports
(especially automotive related goods).
While growth is expected to slow down in 2016 and 2017, the forecast GDP
growth rates of 2.5% and 2.7% respectively are still solid. While public invest-
ment has decreased, domestic demand is expected to remain robust. Private
consumption growth is driven by income growth, decreasing unemployment
and favourable lending conditions. At the same time export growth is set to
continue, driven by demand from the eurozone and the fact that the country´s
international competitiveness has improved.
In order to improve the country´s competitiveness and boost exports as well as
to contain deflationary pressures, in November 2013 the Central Bank inter-
vened in the currency market by buying euros in order to weaken the koruna
against the euro. Since then, it has repeatedly stated it will automatically inter-
vene in order to keep the koruna rate close to a currency ceiling level of 27 per
euro, at least until 2017. Inflation is expected to remain low in 2016, at 0.6%, but
is forecast to increase above 2% in 2017 due to wage growth and as the effect of
lower food and energy prices will fade.
Since 2013 the budget deficit has remained below this threshold and is expected
to do so in 2016 (0.6% of GDP) and 2017 (0.9% of GDP). At 41% of GDP, govern-
ment debt is low compared to other countries in the region. The improvement in
public finances means that the Czech Republic would have no troubles adhering
to the adoption criteria of the euro. However, entering the eurozone still remains
a controversial issue in Czech politics.
The current account is stable, and expected to reach another surplus of 0.8% of
GDP in 2016, followed by a 0.2% of GDP deficit in 2017, as a buoyant domestic
market will raise the level of imports.
High export-dependency as a potential risk factor
Despite the generally benign outlook for the Czech economy, downside risks
remain, especially as the rebound in the eurozone remains fragile. At more than
75%, the Czech Republic’s export-to-GDP ratio is one of the highest in the EU,
making it especially vulnerable to foreign trade losses.
Economic situation
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Source: IHS
-0.5
2.7
4.6
2.5 2.7
Real GDP growth
(y-on-y, % change)
Stable coalition government
Since January 2014 the Czech Republic is ruled by a centre-left coalition, hol-
ding 111 of the 200 seats in parliament. The coalition is led by the leftist Czech
Social Democratic Party (CSSD), while the other two parties in the coalition are
the centrist ANO 2011 and the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL).
Political situation
5
4
3
2
1
0
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Source: IHS
0.5
1.8
3.1
2.8
2.6
Real private consumption
(y-on-y, % change)
Head of state:
President Milos Zeman
(since March 2013)
Head of government:
Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka
(since January 2014)
Population:
10.5 million
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Source: IHS
-1.2
-1.9
-0.4
-0.6 -0.9
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
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6. Hungary
6
Germany: 26.2 %
China: 6.8 %
Austria: 6.7 %
Poland: 5.5 %
Slovakia: 5.4 %
Germany: 28.1 %
Romania: 5.4 %
Slovakia: 5.1 %
Austria: 5.0 %
Italy: 4.8 %
Main import sources
(2015, % of total)
Main export markets
(2015, % of total)
Hungary industries performance outlook
Agriculture
Electronics/ICT
Automotive/
Transport
Financial Services
Chemicals/
Pharma
Food
Construction
Machines/
Engineering
Construction
Materials
Consumer
Durables
Paper Services Steel TextilesMetals
September 2016
Key indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*
Real GDP (y-on-y, % change) 2.0 3.6 2.9 1.8 2.6
Consumer price (y-on-y, % change) 1.7 - 0.2 -0.1 0.9 2.1
Real private consumption (y-on-y, % change) 0.5 1.5 2.6 3.7 2.6
Retail sales (y-on-y, % change) 1.5 5.3 3.7 2.5 3.3
Industrial production (y-on-y, % change) 1.1 7.7 7.5 3.7 4.0
Unemployment rate (%) 10.0 7.8 6.8 6.0 5.8
Real fixed investment (y-on-y, % change) 7.3 12.0 1.2 -8.8 2.5
Export of goods and non-factor services
6.3 7.6 8.4 5.2 3.7
(y-on-y, % change)
Current account/GDP (%) 3.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 3.9
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -2.3 -1.9 -2.6 -2.7
* forecast Source: IHS
Good:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is benign / business performance
in the sector is above its long-term
trend.
Fair:
The credit risk credit situation in
the sector is average / business
performance in the sector is stable.
Poor:
The credit risk situation in the
sector is relatively high / business
performance in the sector is below
long-term trend.
Bleak:
The cedit risk situation in the sector
is poor / business performance in the
sector is weak compared to its long-
term trend.
Excellent:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is strong / business performance in
the sector is strong compared to its
long-term trend.
7. 7
Slower growth expected in 2016, followed by a rebound in 2017
Hungary´s GDP growth is expected to slow down to 1.8% in 2016, mainly due to
lower public investment (lower disbursement of EU funds). That said, economic
growth is sustained by increasing private consumption (up 3.7%). Household
consumption growth is driven by wage increases, lower taxes and lower unem-
ployment (down to 6% in 2016). The rising employment rate is mainly due to
hiring in the private sector and expanding public work schemes.
In 2016 export growth is expected to slow down, but still remains robust (up
5.2%). The current account is expected to remain in surplus in 2016 and 2017.
In 2017, growth is forecast to increase by 2.6% as private and public investments
will pick up again, while private consumption remains solid. Risks stem from the
possibility of eurozone rebound coming to an end and a cooling down of world
trade, which would hurt Hungarian export growth.
In H1 of 2016 the central bank of Hungary decreased the benchmark interest
rate twice, to 0.9% in July 2016, in order to counter decelerating inflation and
to spur economic growth. After deflations in 2014 and 2015, (mainly due to
regulated household energy prices) consumer prices are expected to grow again,
by 0.9% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017.
The government has proven committed to fiscal discipline so far. Containing the
budget deficit within 3% of GDP is a top priority of the administration in order to
avoid EU sanctions. However, since 2010 the government has been using unor-
thodox ways to balance the budget, most notably extraordinary taxes on banks
and utilities. The budget deficit is forecast to remain below the 3% threshold in
2016 (2.6% of GDP) and 2017 (2.7% of GDP).
High debt level as a major weakness
Hungary’s major weakness remains its high level of external debt of more than
100% of GDP in 2015. A large share of it is foreign currency denominated, which
exacerbates the problem, as a weak forint hurts many Hungarian households
and businesses whose loans are denominated in foreign currencies. Therefore,
Hungary remains highly vulnerable to international investors sentiment and
currency volatility.
Economic situation
5
4
3
2
1
0
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Source: IHS
2.0
3.6
2.9
1.8
2.6
Real GDP growth
(y-on-y, % change)
Relationship with the EU remains troublesome
The ruling conservative coalition of the Fidesz and KDNP parties under Prime
Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly taken actions that led to confrontations
with the EU commission and its EU peers (e.g. a controversial media law, some
constitutional amendments curbing the independence of the judiciary, and a
tough stance in the migrant policy, together with a lack of willingness to accept
the mandatory quotas for refugees passed by the EU.
Together with some unorthodox economic policy decisions like additional taxes
on banks, the government’s repeated confrontations with the EU have led to
some uncertainty among its European peers and international investors.
Political situation
Head of state:
President Janos Ader
(since May 2012)
Head of government:
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán
(since May 2010)
Population:
9.8 million
5
4
3
2
1
0
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Source: IHS
0.5
1.5
2.6
3.7
2.6
Real private consumption
(y-on-y, % change)
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Source: IHS
-2.6
-2.3
-1.9
-2.6 -2.7
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
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8. Poland
8
Germany: 28.1 %
China: 7.6 %
Russia: 7.3 %
The Netherlands: 6.0 %
Italy: 5.3 %
Germany: 27.3 %
United Kingdom: 6.8 %
Czech Republic: 6.6 %
France: 5.6 %
Italy: 4.8 %
Main import sources
(2015, % of total)
Main export markets
(2015, % of total)
Poland industries performance outlook
Agriculture
Electronics/ICT
Automotive/
Transport
Financial Services
Chemicals/
Pharma
Food
Construction
Machines/
Engineering
Construction
Materials
Consumer
Durables
Paper Services Steel TextilesMetals
September 2016
Key indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*
Real GDP (y-on-y, % change) 1.3 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.1
Consumer price (y-on-y, % change) 0.9 -0.1 -0.9 -0.3 1.9
Real private consumption (y-on-y, % change) 0.2 2.4 3.1 3.6 3.5
Retail sales (y-on-y, % change) 1.7 3.2 2.4 3.8 3.9
Industrial production (y-on-y, % change) 2.3 3.4 4.8 3.8 4.1
Unemployment rate (%) 10.3 9.0 7.5 6.4 6.5
Real fixed investment (y-on-y, % change) -1.1 10.0 6.1 1.5 2.8
Export of goods and non-factor services
6.1 6.4 6.8 5.1 3.8
(y-on-y, % change)
Current account/GDP (%) -1.3 -1.3 -0.2 -1.0 -1.3
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -4.0 -3.3 -2.6 -3.2 -3.3
* forecast Source: IHS
Good:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is benign / business performance
in the sector is above its long-term
trend.
Fair:
The credit risk credit situation in
the sector is average / business
performance in the sector is stable.
Poor:
The credit risk situation in the
sector is relatively high / business
performance in the sector is below
long-term trend.
Bleak:
The cedit risk situation in the sector
is poor / business performance in the
sector is weak compared to its long-
term trend.
Excellent:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is strong / business performance in
the sector is strong compared to its
long-term trend.
9. 9
Economic growth above eurozone average
In recent years Poland’s economy grew at a substantially faster rate than the
eurozone, and is expected to do so in the coming two years. In 2015 Polish GDP
increased 3.6%, mainly driven by private consumption, investment and exports.
The Polish economy is expected to continue to benefit from low energy prices
and the rebound in the eurozone in 2016, with GDP expected to grow 3.4%,
based on robust domestic demand and increasing exports. In 2017 the economy
is expected to grow 3.1%.
Household consumption increase is driven by low energy prices as well as rising
wages and employment. Consumer prices are expected to remain deflated in
2016. Demand for new jobs is growing and is highest in the industrial producti-
on and the education segments. Unemployment is expected to decrease further,
to 6.5% in 2017.
Poland´s fiscal deficit has been below the 3% Maastricht threshold since 2009,
but is forecast to increase above 3% in 2016 and 2017, despite an additional tax
on banks and large retail businesses. The increase is due to higher military spen-
ding as a reaction to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, higher social spending and
a reduction in the standard VAT rate.
The current account deficit decreased to 0.1% of GDP in 2015, but is expected to
increase again in 2016 and 2017 (to more than 1% of GDP) due to higher dome-
stic demand boosting imports. During the 2008/2009 credit crisis, the Polish
currency depreciated sharply against the euro. However, since then, the exchan-
ge rate has been relatively stable.
Exposed to negative “Brexit” impacts
Like its Eastern European peers, Poland is susceptible to a potential end of the
current eurozone recovery. At the same time, domestic political woes and any
adverse economic policies by the new PiS government could dampen investor
sentiment in times of increased volatility and insecurity. In Central Europe,
Poland‘s economy looks most vulnerable to the financial and economic fallout
brought by the United Kingdom‘s vote to leave the EU. Annual remittances from
Poles living abroad amount to about EUR 4 billion, a large share of it from the
UK. In the longer term, an EU departure of the United Kingdom could impact EU
structural funds, which play a major role for Poland´s economic progress. The
UK is also Poland´s second largest export destination after Germany.
Economic situation
5
4
3
2
1
0
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Source: IHS
1.3
3.3
3.6 3.4
3.1
Real GDP growth
(y-on-y, % change)
The new administration launched some controversial initiatives
The national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party prevailed in the October
2015 elections gaining 235 out of 460 seats in parliament. Immediately after
its inauguration the new PiS-administration launched some controversial policy
initiatives, such as trying to reorganise Poland’s constitutional court, seizing
direct control of the state broadcasting channels and the security services, and
purging the heads of state-owned companies. This has triggered mass demons-
trations in Poland, while the European Union is reviewing whether those moves
violate EU statutes.
Political situation
Head of state:
President Andrzej Duda
(since August 2015)
Head of government:
Prime Minister Beata Szydlo
(since November 2015)
Population:
38.0 million
12
9
6
3
0
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Source: IHS
10.3
9.0
7.5
6.4 6.5
Unemployment rate
(y-on-y, % change)
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Source: IHS
-4.0
-3.3
-2.6
-3.2 -3.3
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
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10. Russia
10
China: 19.2 %
Germany: 11.2 %
USA: 6.4 %
Belarus: 4.8 %
Italy: 4.6 %
The Netherlands: 11.9 %
China: 8.3 %
Germany: 7.4 %
Italy: 6.5 %
Turkey: 5.6 %
Main import sources
(2015, % of total)
Main export markets
(2015, % of total)
Russia industries performance outlook
Agriculture
Electronics/ICT
Automotive/
Transport
Financial Services
Chemicals/
Pharma
Food
Construction
Machines/
Engineering
Construction
Materials
Consumer
Durables
Paper Services Steel TextilesMetals
September 2016
Key indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*
Real GDP (y-on-y, % change) 1.3 0.6 -3.7 -1.8 0.3
Consumer price (y-on-y, % change) 6.8 7.8 15.5 7.1 5.6
Real private consumption (y-on-y, % change) 4.4 1.5 -9.4 -5.3 1.6
Retail sales (y-on-y, % change) 3.7 3.1 -9.3 -2.2 2.6
Industrial production (y-on-y, % change) 0.4 1.7 -3.3 -1.3 1.5
Unemployment rate (%) 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.8 5.8
Real fixed investment (y-on-y, % change) 1.3 -2.0 -7.7 -8.7 0.0
Export of goods and non-factor services
4.5 0.7 3.5 -1.9 2.7
(y-on-y, % change)
Current account/GDP (%) 0.1 -1.3 5.2 1.3 0.2
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -0.9 -3.9 -4.8 -5.4
* forecast Source: IHS
Good:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is benign / business performance
in the sector is above its long-term
trend.
Fair:
The credit risk credit situation in
the sector is average / business
performance in the sector is stable.
Poor:
The credit risk situation in the
sector is relatively high / business
performance in the sector is below
long-term trend.
Bleak:
The cedit risk situation in the sector
is poor / business performance in the
sector is weak compared to its long-
term trend.
Excellent:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is strong / business performance in
the sector is strong compared to its
long-term trend.
11. 11
Domestic politics: continued stability - but at the expense of
democracy
The popular standing of President Putin increased significantly since the
outbreak of the Ukraine crisis and the annexation of the Crimea, and approval
ratings remain high, despite the current economic recession. Nationalistic senti-
ment has risen, supported by aggressive propaganda through the state-control-
led media. Playing the nationalist card, especially in relation to the EU and the
US, appears to be the key to keeping approval ratings up.
Any opposition has been marginalised by a hardening of authoritarianism:
hardliners have effectively been given license to attack liberals and crack down
further on independent media and non-governmental organisations.
The upcoming parliamentary elections in September 2016 will be tightly mana-
ged and will most likely keep the current government in control.
Relationships with the EU and the US have deteriorated
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in early 2014, the relationships between
Russia and the EU and US have gradually deteriorated. Russia´s intervention
in the civil war in Syria added another area of conflict to the already strained
relationships.
Moscow´s annexation of Crimea in March and its tacit support of separatist
forces in Eastern Ukraine triggered several rounds of sanctions from the EU
and the US, mainly in the form of a freeze on assets, travel bans on Russian and
Crimean individuals, long-term financing limitations restricting access to EU/US
capital markets for major Russian banks and some oil and defense businesses.
Restrictions include certain types of products exported to Russia, including
dual-use technologies and high-tech equipment for the oil industry. Russia itself
imposed retaliatory sanctions on the import of food and agricultural products
from the EU, the US, Australia, Canada and Norway.
The EU/US sanctions may have a very significant impact on the Russian
economy in the longer term. In particular, they will influence the refinancing
capacity of major domestic corporations and banks.
Political situation
Head of state:
President Vladimir Putin
(since May 2012)
Head of government:
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev
(since May 2012)
Form of government:
Government formed by the Party
United Russia and non-partisan
technocrats
Population:
144.1 million
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12. 12
Economic situation
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
1.3
0.6
-3.7
-1.8
0.3
Real GDP growth
(y-on-y, % change)
The contraction continues in 2016
The Russian economy contracted 3.7% in 2015, as the persistently low oil prices
continued to negatively affect export revenues. Both investments and private
consumption recorded sharp decreases of 9.4% and 7.7% respectively. Only net
exports contributed positively to GDP, as imports decreased sharply (down 28%
year-on-year) with domestic demand contraction.
Consumer price inflation increased to more than 15%, which was also due to the
on-going sanctions that Russia has imposed on EU imports. This, together with
the rouble depreciation had a damaging impact on household consumption.
That said, unemployment is set to increase only modestly in 2016, as the Russi-
an state supports firms and directs them if needed. Firms
simply often impose wage cuts rather than mass redundancies to cope with
demand decline. This serves to avoid potential social unrest.
The economic contraction is set to continue in 2016, as oil prices are expected
to remain low for the time being. GDP is forecast to shrink 1.8% in 2016, with
investments and private consumption showing further contraction and inflation
remaining high. Only in 2017 a very modest rebound of 0.3% GDP is expected.
Corporate foreign debt remains an issue
In terms of exports, Russian corporate foreign debt is one of the highest among
emerging economies. This is compounded not only by high interest rates,
pressure on capital flows and the rouble, but also international sanctions that
severely hinder foreign (re)financing. Therefore, despite the relatively deep
coffers of the Russian state, Russian foreign corporate debt is indeed an issue
to be watched carefully. Most vulnerable in Russia are corporates operating in
the construction and real estate sectors, which generate incomes denominated
mainly in rouble, but used to rely on foreign currency funding, and companies in
the transport sector (particularly airlines and automobiles).
Russia´s short-term economic policy in the current recession is rather prudent.
Despite a very low public debt of 13% of GDP and pressure from the low oil
prices on the budget, the government deficit is kept within acceptable margins.
The central bank pursues a tight monetary policy in order to combat inflation
and inflation expectations, keeping rather high interest rates of more than 10%
in place, which may be eased if inflation comes down with the expected gradual
oil price climb. At the same time, the central bank allows the rouble to float. This
has an impact on inflation if the currency depreciates, but also acts as a shock
absorber for the current account, which is expected to remain in surplus in 2016
and 2017. At the same time the fairly large international reserve position of
Russia hardly erodes as capital outflows are contained.
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
1.3
-2.0
-7.7
-8.7
0.0
Real fixed investment
(y-on-y, % change)
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
4.4
-9.4
-5.3
Real private consumption
(y-on-y, % change)
1.5 1.6
13. 13
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
-1.2
-0.9
-3.9
-4.8
-5.4
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Major structural weaknesses remain
That said, the long-term prospect for higher and sustainable growth remains
subdued. The Russian business climate is plagued by uncertainty regarding
property rights, a weak transport infrastructure and lack of competition in goo-
ds and services markets. The authorities failed to seize the opportunity during
the windfall years to strengthen Russia’s economic structure and enhance its
non-oil potential by prudently investing high oil revenues in other industries to
diversify the economy away from the dominant oil and gas sector.
There is an underlying deterrent for investments, which are badly needed to
modernise the energy sector and help to diversify the economy. Even before the
outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, the investment level was too low and foreign
direct investment too limited, partly due to due to an unfriendly business
climate and a firm grip of the state on large parts of the economy. This is now
exacerbated by the international sanctions imposed by the EU and the US that
aim to prevent technology transfers and financing to Russian firms, especially in
the energy and military sectors.
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14. Slovakia
14
Germany: 20.5 %
Czech Republic: 18.4 %
Austria: 9.7 %
Hungary: 6.7 %
Poland: 6.6 %
Germany: 22.7 %
Czech Republic: 12.5 %
Poland: 8.5 %
Austria: 5.7 %
Hungary: 5.7 %
Main import sources
(2015, % of total)
Main export markets
(2015, % of total)
Slovakia industries performance outlook
Agriculture
Electronics/ICT
Automotive/
Transport
Financial Services
Chemicals/
Pharma
Food
Construction
Machines/
Engineering
Construction
Materials
Consumer
Durables
Paper Services Steel TextilesMetals
September 2016
Key indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*
Real GDP (y-on-y, % change) 1.4 2.5 3.6 3.2 3.3
Consumer price (y-on-y, % change) 1.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 2.2
Real private consumption (y-on-y, % change) -0.8 2.3 2.4 3.0 3.0
Retail sales (y-on-y, % change) 0.4 3.5 1.7 2.5 2.6
Industrial production (y-on-y, % change) 3.9 8.6 7.0 5.0 5.1
Unemployment rate (%) 14.2 13.2 11.5 10.1 8.8
Real fixed investment (y-on-y, % change) -1.1 3.5 14.0 3.2 4.4
Export of goods and non-factor services
6.2 3.6 7.0 3.3 3.5
(y-on-y, % change)
Current account/GDP (%) 2.3 0.1 -1.3 -1.4 0.1
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -2.7 -2.9 -1.9 -1.5
* forecast Source: IHS
Good:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is benign / business performance
in the sector is above its long-term
trend.
Fair:
The credit risk credit situation in
the sector is average / business
performance in the sector is stable.
Poor:
The credit risk situation in the
sector is relatively high / business
performance in the sector is below
long-term trend.
Bleak:
The cedit risk situation in the sector
is poor / business performance in the
sector is weak compared to its long-
term trend.
Excellent:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is strong / business performance in
the sector is strong compared to its
long-term trend.
15. 15
Growth forecast to remain above 3% in 2016 and 2017
The Slovakian economy grew 3.6% in 2015, driven by consumer spending, bu-
siness investment and government consumption. Growth is expected to remain
above 3% in 2016 and 2017 (3.2% and 3.3% respectively), driven by continued
robust domestic demand and exports to the eurozone.
Private consumption is forecast to continue to be one of the primary drivers of
economic expansion. The labour market shows strong improvement, with the
unemployment rate expected to decrease from 14.2% in 2013 to 10.1% in 2016
and 8.8% in 2017, mainly due to improving domestic economic conditions.
Government finances are stable with the budget deficit being kept below 3% of
GDP since 2013. The budget deficit is expected to decrease to 1.9% in 2016 and
1.5% in 2017. Long-term government bond yields have decreased rapidly over
the past four years, reducing debt servicing costs for the government.
Slovakia´s external economic position is solid. Exports and imports are well
balanced and both growing. The current account deficit is expected to increase
slightly in 2016, but is forecast to turn into a surplus in 2017. At the same time,
Slovakia´s foreign debt level is low.
Highly dependent on (automotive) exports
As the Slovakian economy is heavily reliant on industrial exports, (especially
automotive related) the eurozone and Germany in particular, it remains very vul-
nerable to eurozone downturns and/or adverse developments in the automotive
sector (e.g. the Volkswagen emissions-rigging scandal).
Economic situation
5
4
3
2
1
0
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
1.4
2.5
3.6
3.2 3.3
Real GDP growth
(y-on-y, % change)
Ruling party lost its absolute majority in the March 2016 elections
In the March 2016 general elections, which were mainly focused on the Euro-
pean migrant crisis, the ruling social-democratic Smer-SD party lost more than
15% and its absolute majority in parliament, mainly at the expense of nationa-
listic and right-wing parties. Despite the loss, the Smer-SD remained the largest
party in parliament and formed a coalition government with the nationalistic
SNS party, the liberal conservative Most-Híd and the centre-right Siet´(network)
party.
Political situation
Head of state:
President Andrej Kiska
(since June 2014)
Head of government:
Prime Minister Robert Fico
(since April 2012)
Population:
5.4 million
4
3
2
1
0
-1
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
-0.8
2.3 2.4
3.0 3.0
Real private consumption
(y-on-y, % change)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
-1.1
3.5
14.0
3.2 4.4
Real fixed investment
(y-on-y, % change)
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16. Turkey
16
China: 12.0 %
Germany: 10.3 %
Russia: 9.9 %
USA: 5.4 %
Italy: 5.1 %
Germany: 9.3 %
United Kingdom: 7.3 %
Iraq: 6.0 %
Italy: 4.8 %
France: 4.5 %
Main import sources
(2015, % of total)
Main export markets
(2015, % of total)
Turkey industries performance outlook
Agriculture
Electronics/ICT
Automotive/
Transport
Financial Services
Chemicals/
Pharma
Food
Construction
Machines/
Engineering
Construction
Materials
Consumer
Durables
Paper Services Steel TextilesMetals
September 2016
Key indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*
Real GDP growth (y-on-y, % change) 4.1 3.0 3.9 3.0 3.3
Consumer price (y-on-y, % change) 7.5 8.9 7.7 7.3 7.0
Real private consumption (y-on-y, % change) 5.1 1.5 4.5 4.0 2.7
Industrial production (y-on-y, % change) 3.0 3.7 3.2 3.7 2.8
Unemployment rate (%) 9.0 10.0 10.3 10.2 11.1
Real fixed investment (y-on-y, % change) 4.2 -1.3 3.5 -2.7 2.5
Export of goods and non-factor services
-0.1 7.4 -0.9 1.7 2.0
(y-on-y, % change)
Current account/GDP (%) -7.9 -5.7 -4.5 -5.0 -5.2
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -1.5 -1.0 -1.2 -2.5 -2.4
* forecast Sources: IHS
Good:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is benign / business performance
in the sector is above its long-term
trend.
Fair:
The credit risk credit situation in
the sector is average / business
performance in the sector is stable.
Poor:
The credit risk situation in the
sector is relatively high / business
performance in the sector is below
long-term trend.
Bleak:
The cedit risk situation in the sector
is poor / business performance in the
sector is weak compared to its long-
term trend.
Excellent:
The credit risk situation in the sector
is strong / business performance in
the sector is strong compared to its
long-term trend.
17. 17
A massive purge underway after the failed coup
After the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016 the Turkish government declared
a state of emergency and started a massive crackdown to purge officials alleged
for suspected links to the coup and to Fethullah Gülen, a Muslim cleric exiled in
the US. More than 20,000 military, policemen, judges, prosecutors and officials
were detained, about 60,000 officials and civil servants were suspended. Addi-
tionally, many media outlets were closed and journalists arrested. Meanwhile,
President Erdogan extended the purge to Turkish businesses with suspected
links to the Gülen movement.
Already before the failed coup in July 2016 increasing government actions to
curb the independence of the judiciary and political interference in the media
have raised domestic and international concerns. Those concerns have grown,
especially in the US and the EU, and Turkey´s relationship with both has dete-
riorated since the failed coup.
Heightened conflict in the region affects Turkish security
Since 2014, geopolitical risks have significantly increased. The south-eastern
part of the country has been affected by a massive inflow of refugees from Syria
and fighting close to the border. This region is also severely affected by the
flare-up of fighting between Turkish forces and the Kurdistan Workers´ Party
(PKK), after the government ended a two-year ceasefire and terminated infor-
mal peace talks with the PKK. At the same time, several IS-led suicide bomb
attacks have hit several cities, including Istanbul and its main airport.
Given the increased political risks due to the turbulent domestic political situa-
tion, the new escalation of the conflict with the PKK, terrorist attacks and more
strained relationships with the EU and the US, economic repercussions in the
mid- and long-term cannot be ruled out., e.g. a decrease in foreign investments
and consumer spending. This could negatively impact economic growth, ex-
change rate stability, external funding opportunities, refinancing and insolven-
cies.
Political situation
Head of state:
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
(since August 2014)
Head of government:
Prime Minister Binali Yildirim
(since May 2016)
Nature of regime:
Republican parliamentary de-
mocracy and secular state. The
armed forces´ political influence has
been curbed.
Population:
77.7 million
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18. 18
10
8
6
4
2
0
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
7.5
8.9
7.7 7.3 7.0
Consumer price (% of GDP)
Structural weaknesses have re-emerged
In the last decade, Turkey has made impressive economic progress. With politi-
cal stability since 2002, when the AKP came to power, the country has experien-
ced GDP growth exceeding the European average, while real per capita income
has increased markedly. A fast growing population of more than 75 million and
rising prosperity have turned Turkey into one of the most prominent emerging
markets.
However, since 2013 Turkey’s structural economic weaknesses have resurfaced:
among them its stubbornly high inflation, large gross external financing needs,
heavy reliance on volatile portfolio capital inflows and relatively weak inter-
national liquidity and currency volatility – now coupled with sharply increased
political risks.
Slowdown of growth expected in 2016 and 2017
In 2016 and 2017 Turkish GDP growth is expected to decrease to about 3% due
to lower private consumption and contracting investment. The deteriorated
internal security situation increased concerns about the independence of the
central bank and is negatively impacting business and investor sentiment,
leading to delays in new investment decisions. Tourism is widely affected by
internal security concerns.
Being a large oil importer, the Turkish economy should profit from lower oil
prices, which should help to boost private demand, lower inflation and narrow
its persistently large current account deficit - a result of low savings and high
investment.
However, inflation is expected to remain high in 2016 and 2017, at around 7%,
well above the official 5% medium-term target, as the strong lira depreciation
(about 20% against the USD in 2015) has offset the disinflationary effects of low
oil prices.
High dependence on capital inflow is a major risk
The current account deficit is expected to remain above 5% of GDP in 2016 and
2017, also due to decreased tourism. Increasing foreign debt and substantial
capital imports (foreign direct investment and portfolio capital) are needed to
cover the current account deficits. However, since much of those deficits are
financed from volatile short term capital inflows and sensitive portfolio invest-
ment, this makes the economy very vulnerable to any negative shake-ups in
financial markets, which could trigger a massive capital withdrawal and could
also lead to more fluctuations in the lira exchange rate. Triggers for such shifts
are not only external, but also internal and particularly related to the security
situation and concerns about monetary policy credibility. Turkey´s foreign debt
has sharply increased in recent years, from 38% of GDP in 2008 to 56% at the
end of 2015, with more than 90% denominated in foreign currency.
That said, shock absorbing capacity is underpinned by sound government fi-
nances, a healthy banking system and still good access to international financial
markets.
Economic situation
5
4
3
2
1
0
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
4.1
3.0
3.9
3.0
3.3
Real GDP growth
(y-on-y, % change)
10
8
6
4
2
0
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
5.1
1.5
4.5
4.0
2.7
Real private consumption
(y-on-y, % change)
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
-7.9
-5.7
-4.5 -5.0 -5.2
Current account (% of GDP)
19. 19
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
4.2
-1.3
3.5
2.5
Real fixed investment
(y-on-y, % change)
Increased credit risk in the corporate sector
The rise of corporate debt in Turkey significantly outpaced economic growth in
2015. As a result, the corporate debt-to-GDP ratio more than doubled, reaching
57% in Q4 of 2015. Although the level is still moderate, the debt structure is
concerning, with more than a third of this debt financed externally. Turkish cor-
porates, particularly in the energy sector, have extensively borrowed in foreign
currency from local banks, reflecting relatively high dollarization in the Turkish
banking system. The exposure of Turkish corporates to foreign currency risk is
thus higher than external debt figures suggest. The most vulnerable sectors in
Turkey are energy, construction materials, steel, transport (airlines) and che-
micals. Smaller sized firms with earnings mostly in local currency that are not
sufficiently hedged are most at risk.
So far, Turkish corporates have good access to international capital markets with
rollover rates of corporate external debt remaining above 100% and maturities
being lengthened. The Turkish central bank has also recently taken measures to
reduce dollarization of domestic lending and Turkish corporates have improved
their maturity profile.
Structural constraints for higher long-term growth remain
The future earnings capacity of the Turkish economy is constrained by macro-
economic imbalances related to high credit growth, high inflation and a large
external deficit, coupled with structural issues related to its low savings rate and
weaknesses in competitiveness, limiting FDI inflow.
The investment climate is also hampered by a weak judicial system and an in-
flexible labour market. Moves to privatise state banks and the power sector are
also proceeding too slowly. Without structural reforms to raise savings, reduce
dependency on energy imports and improve the investment climate, Turkey´s
potential growth rate will decrease to 3%-3.5% per annum. However, no major
structural reforms are expected in the current political situation.
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
Sources: IHS
-1.5
-1.0
-1.2
-2.5 -2.4
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
-2.7
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