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Contingency planning in  the building sector to meet  climate change conditions   Nils Larsson Executive Director, iiSBE,  the International Initiative for a Sustainable Built Environment May 2010
Reduced availability and higher cost of fuels and materials Retrofit to adapt buildings and relocation to meet climate change conditions Demand for higher service levels in developing and developed countries New construction related to needs of climate refugees  Housing and service demand to meet current deficits and future urban growth in developing countries The Construction Sector Construction work required to replace ageing infrastructure  Issues at mid-century Water scarcity and/or drought in some areas
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Tackling the issues in the building sector
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Mitigation, adaptation and resource depletion in the building sector  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],What kind of policy instruments are cost-effective? Source:  Report by Central European University for UNEP-SBCI, 2007
What kind of policy instruments are cost-effective? Source:  Report by Central European University for UNEP-SBCI, 2007
Source:  Adapted from University of Copenhagen Synthesis Report, March 2009, pg. 29, and from original McKinsey Quarterly 2007 #1 Global cost curve for GHG abatement measures beyond business as usual, for measures estimated to cost less than 40 Euros per ton in 2030 Marginal costs Marginal annual costs higher than BAU Annual abatement costs in Euros per ton, for global measures costing less than 40 Euro/tCO 2- eq in 2030, calculated as the annual additional operating cost (including depreciation) less potential operating cost savings, divided by the amount of emissions avoided… costs can be negative if costs savings are considerable.  Total annual reduction 27 Gt CO2-eq lower than BAU
Some good news: economic mitigation potentials by sector as a function of carbon price in 2030 estimated from bottom-up studies.
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],New build, existing buildings and neighborhoods
Total building stock Existing buildings New buildings Certified buildings Approximate proportions in the building stock
But new construction has influence over the mid-term  (Canadian rates of demolition and construction) .
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Things we must do…. ,[object Object],[object Object]
A digression
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Conditions needed for substantial action
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The general effects of crises  * www.digitalhistory.uh.edu
www.ameshistoricalsociety.org
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],General reactions to crises  Paul Krugman column,  International Herald Tribune , pg. 5, 4-5 October, 2008.
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],General reactions to crises  * Naomi Klein,  The Shock Doctrine
Incremental and no-pain improvement scenarios
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Deferred action on climate change
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The likely scenario
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The likely scenario
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Likely reactions
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Likely reactions
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Likely effects of hasty reaction
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Likely effects
Source:  Le Monde  special supplement, 2009
An alternative scenario:  contingency plans ready for implementation
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Contingency planning scenario
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Contingency planning scenario
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Specific proposals for contingency plans, 1 to 4
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Specific proposals for contingency plans, 5 to 8
[object Object],Specific proposals for contingency plans, 9
[object Object],Specific proposals for contingency plans, 10
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Specific proposals for contingency plans, 11 to 13
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Specific proposals for contingency plans, 14 to 16
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Specific proposals for contingency plans, 17 to 19
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Conclusions
Let us take the steps needed to ensure a happy ending
Contacts & Info ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Building sector strategies for climate change

  • 1. Contingency planning in the building sector to meet climate change conditions Nils Larsson Executive Director, iiSBE, the International Initiative for a Sustainable Built Environment May 2010
  • 2.
  • 3. Reduced availability and higher cost of fuels and materials Retrofit to adapt buildings and relocation to meet climate change conditions Demand for higher service levels in developing and developed countries New construction related to needs of climate refugees Housing and service demand to meet current deficits and future urban growth in developing countries The Construction Sector Construction work required to replace ageing infrastructure Issues at mid-century Water scarcity and/or drought in some areas
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  • 7. What kind of policy instruments are cost-effective? Source: Report by Central European University for UNEP-SBCI, 2007
  • 8. Source: Adapted from University of Copenhagen Synthesis Report, March 2009, pg. 29, and from original McKinsey Quarterly 2007 #1 Global cost curve for GHG abatement measures beyond business as usual, for measures estimated to cost less than 40 Euros per ton in 2030 Marginal costs Marginal annual costs higher than BAU Annual abatement costs in Euros per ton, for global measures costing less than 40 Euro/tCO 2- eq in 2030, calculated as the annual additional operating cost (including depreciation) less potential operating cost savings, divided by the amount of emissions avoided… costs can be negative if costs savings are considerable. Total annual reduction 27 Gt CO2-eq lower than BAU
  • 9. Some good news: economic mitigation potentials by sector as a function of carbon price in 2030 estimated from bottom-up studies.
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  • 11. Total building stock Existing buildings New buildings Certified buildings Approximate proportions in the building stock
  • 12. But new construction has influence over the mid-term (Canadian rates of demolition and construction) .
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  • 20. Incremental and no-pain improvement scenarios
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  • 29. Source: Le Monde special supplement, 2009
  • 30. An alternative scenario: contingency plans ready for implementation
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  • 41. Let us take the steps needed to ensure a happy ending
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