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New economic realities: a quest for
sustainable sources of economic
development of the Black Sea region
Oleg Ustenko
Executive Director, The Bleyzer Foundation

TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY

October 24-25, 2013, Crimea
І V INTERNATIONAL BLACK SEA ECONOMIC FOR
a quest for sustainable development…
• Export-led recovery remains unimpressive on Eurozone
weaknesses and a slower growth in Russia.
• Tighter access to external borrowing limits the growth of
investment and consumer spending, especially in smaller
countries.
• Consumer led recovery looks particularly shaky in Ukraine on
concerns of weak public finances, slowing exports and surging
external funding needs.
• Credit growth to private sector is sluggish, especially in Ukraine,
Romania and Bulgaria.
• A shift toward investment-based growth is not happening on
poor investment climate, especially in Russia and Ukraine.
• Higher private domestic and foreign investments are essential
to unlock potential sources of economic growth in energy,
infrastructure, transportation and agriculture.
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Economic Growth
% annual change

Source: IMF
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Per capita GDP

based on PPP, thousand current international dollars

Source: IMF
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Sources of Economic Growth
contributions to GDP growth, percentage points

UKRAINE

Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Sources of Economic Growth
contributions to GDP growth, percentage points

RUSSIA

Source: World Bank
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Sources of Economic Growth
contributions to GDP growth, percentage points

TURKEY

Source: World Bank, OECD
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Sources of Economic Growth
contributions to GDP growth, percentage points

BULGARIA

Source: World Bank, OECD
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Sources of Economic Growth
contributions to GDP growth, percentage points

ROMANIA

Source: World Bank, OECD
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Sources of Economic Growth
contributions to GDP growth, percentage points

GEORGIA

Source: World Bank, Asian Development Bank, TBF
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
The End of The Credit Boom
credit to private sector, % annual change

Source: IMF, World Bank
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Macroeconomic vulnerabilities
consumer prices, % annual change

Source: IMF
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Macroeconomic vulnerabilities
current account, % of GDP

Source: IMF
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Macroeconomic vulnerabilities
general government revenue minus expenditure, % of GDP

Source: IMF
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Macroeconomic vulnerabilities
gross government debt, % of GDP

Source: IMF
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Macroeconomic vulnerabilities
Credit Default Swaps, percentage points

Source: Deutsche Bank AG

TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
Investment Climate
Ease of doing
business rank

Index of
Economic
Freedom

Global
Competitiveness
Index

Government
effectiveness,
percentile rank
(higher number better
performance)

Corruption
Perception Index

Source: World Bank, WEF, Transparency International, The Heritage Foundation
TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY

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BSEF 2013 macroeconomy Oleg Ustenko

  • 1. New economic realities: a quest for sustainable sources of economic development of the Black Sea region Oleg Ustenko Executive Director, The Bleyzer Foundation TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY October 24-25, 2013, Crimea І V INTERNATIONAL BLACK SEA ECONOMIC FOR
  • 2. a quest for sustainable development… • Export-led recovery remains unimpressive on Eurozone weaknesses and a slower growth in Russia. • Tighter access to external borrowing limits the growth of investment and consumer spending, especially in smaller countries. • Consumer led recovery looks particularly shaky in Ukraine on concerns of weak public finances, slowing exports and surging external funding needs. • Credit growth to private sector is sluggish, especially in Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria. • A shift toward investment-based growth is not happening on poor investment climate, especially in Russia and Ukraine. • Higher private domestic and foreign investments are essential to unlock potential sources of economic growth in energy, infrastructure, transportation and agriculture. TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 3. Economic Growth % annual change Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 4. Per capita GDP based on PPP, thousand current international dollars Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 5. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points UKRAINE Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 6. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points RUSSIA Source: World Bank TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 7. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points TURKEY Source: World Bank, OECD TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 8. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points BULGARIA Source: World Bank, OECD TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 9. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points ROMANIA Source: World Bank, OECD TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 10. Sources of Economic Growth contributions to GDP growth, percentage points GEORGIA Source: World Bank, Asian Development Bank, TBF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 11. The End of The Credit Boom credit to private sector, % annual change Source: IMF, World Bank TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 12. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities consumer prices, % annual change Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 13. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities current account, % of GDP Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 14. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities general government revenue minus expenditure, % of GDP Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 15. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities gross government debt, % of GDP Source: IMF TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 16. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities Credit Default Swaps, percentage points Source: Deutsche Bank AG TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY
  • 17. Investment Climate Ease of doing business rank Index of Economic Freedom Global Competitiveness Index Government effectiveness, percentile rank (higher number better performance) Corruption Perception Index Source: World Bank, WEF, Transparency International, The Heritage Foundation TURNING TRANSITION INTO PROSPERITY