Okan Yardimci presented an outlook for natural gas supply in the Black Sea region by 2020. He discussed Turkey's growing natural gas demand and reliance on imports, particularly from Russia. Turkey has liberalized its natural gas market since 2002 and over 250 companies now operate across the supply chain. Yardimci also outlined Turkey's existing and planned natural gas infrastructure like pipelines and LNG facilities. He noted potential for increased natural gas production from discoveries in the Turkish, Bulgarian, Romanian and Ukrainian sections of the Black Sea.

1. PANEL DISCUSSION
AN OUTLOOK FOR GAS SUPPLY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION BY 2020
Okan YARDIMCI
Energy Expert, Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Turkey
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum
24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

2. Okan YARDIMCI
Education
2004 (B.Sc)
2008 (MBA)
2008 (Exec. P.)
Cont. (LL.M. Can.)
Cont. (Ph.D Can.)
Petroleum and Natural Gas Eng.
Business Management
Public Utilities
Law
Finance
Work Experience
2004-2006
2006-Cont.
Reservoir Engineer, Perenco (International Oil Company)
Energy Expert, Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Turkey
(METU)
(Atılım U.)
(Michigan State U.)
(PennState U.)
(Hacettepe U.)
Other
ERRA Lecturer (Advanced Training Course: Price Regulation & Tariffs)
Member of Energy Experts Society, Member of Youth Leader Society
Interests; Global energy markets, Turkey energy markets, regulation, tariffs, oil and
natural gas prices, LNG, econometrics, finance, arbitration, international law, conflict of
contract law, leadership, diplomacy, politics
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

3. Turkey
TURKEY NATURAL GAS SUPPLY - 2011 (44,5 BCM)
Natural Gas Consumption of Turkey
Annual consumption forecast for 2013; 47.6 BCM
Nigeria LNG; 3%
Domestic
Production; 2%
50
45
Algeria LNG; 9%
Import
Azerbaijan; 9%
40
35
Russia; 57%
Iran; 18%
30
25
20
15
Domestic
Production
~ 450 billion cubic meters
billion cubic meters
Spot LNG; 2%
10
5
0
Market liberalisation
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

4. Turkey
Place of the Turkey's Natural Gas Consumption in the World
1,5%
47
43
40
1,2%
32
30
0,9%
27
24
20
0,6%
10
0,3%
0,004%
0,2%
0,3%
0,6%
1,0%
Proportion of the Turkey cons.
Country ranking by cons.
50
1,2%
0
0,0%
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

5. Natural gas market structure before 2002
State owned comp. BOTAŞ
was the monopoly on;
Imported Gas
LNG Facility
BOTAŞ
Industry
Residential
Distribution
Power






Import & Wholesale,
Transmission,
Distribution,
Storage,
Sale,
Determination of
wholesale prices, retail
prices, connection fees
Domestic Gas
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

6. Natural gas market structure after 2002
Transmission
(LNG & Pipeline)
Domestic Production
Export
Eligible Cons.
Wholesale
(LNG, CNG, Pipeline)
Distribution
Import
(LNG & Pipeline)
Non-Eligible Cons.
LNG Facilities &
Underground Storage
SUPPLY
WHOLESALE
NETWORK
CONSUMPTION
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

7. Natural gas market activities
IMPORT
WHOLESALE
TRANSMISSION
DISTRIBUTION
15 + 30 spot LNG
42
1 pipeline + 24 LNG
64
COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS
75
STORAGE
EXPORT
4
4
Total number of licences; 259
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

8. Import
BOTAŞ is required to transfer its import contracts until its market share decreases to 20%
The first contract release tender was completed by BOTAŞ on 30th of November 2006.
Company
Transferred amounts (million cm3)
1
Shell Enerji A.Ş.
250
2
Bosphorus Gaz A.Ş.
750
3
Enerco Enerji San. ve Tic.
2500
4
Avrasya Gaz A.Ş.
500
The second contract release tender was completed by BOTAŞ on 1st of January 2013.
Company
Transferred amounts (million cm3)
1
Bosphorus Gaz A.Ş.
1750
2
Akfel
2250
3
Kibar
1000
4
Batı Hattı
1000
Azerbaijan contract release to SOCAR completed by BOTAŞ on 1st of January 2013.
Company
1
SOCAR
Transferred amounts (million cm3)
1200
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

9. Import contracts
CONTRACTS
QUANTITY
(BCM/YEAR)
RUSSIAN FED. West-1
6 (Private Companies)
RUSSIAN FED. West-2
8 (4 BCM BOTAŞ, 4 BCM Private Companies)
RUSSIAN FED. Blue Stream
16 (BOTAŞ)
IRAN
10 (BOTAŞ)
AZERBAIJAN
6.6 (5.2 BCM BOTAŞ, 1.2 BCM SOCAR)
TURKMENISTAN
16 (not in operation)
ALGERIA (LNG)
4 (BOTAŞ)
NIGERIA LNG)
1.2 (BOTAŞ)
AZERBAIJAN
16 BCM/ SHAH DENIZ 2 PROJECT
(Trans Anatolia Pipeline-TANAP agreement was signed in 2012)
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

10. Turkey natural gas system
Russian Fed.(West)
8 BCM (4 BCM BOTAŞ, 4 BCM Private Comp.)
Greece
0,75 BCM
Russian Fed.
(Blue Stream)
16 BCM
Russian Fed.(West)
6 BCM (Private Comp.)
Azerbaijan
6,6 BCM (5,4 BCM BOTAŞ,
1,2 BCM SOCAR)
+ 16 BCM (SHAH DENIZ 2)
Turkmenistan
(Agreement)
16 BCM
Algeria+Nigeria
(LNG)
4 BCM + 1,2 BCM
Iran
10 BCM
Spot
(LNG)
BOTAŞ+Private Comp.
Underground Storage
LNG Gasification Terminals
Planning Natural Gas Underground Storage
Planning LNG Gasification Terminals
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

11. LNG facilities & storage
BOTAŞ Marmara Ereğlisi LNG Terminal
Yearly Send-Out Capacity : 8.2 Billion m3
(Tank Capacity; 3 X 85.000 m3 LNG tanks)
Daily Maximum Sent Out : 18.7 million m3/day
TPAO Silivri Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities
Type : Depleted gas fields (Değirmenköy and Kuzey Marmara Fields)
Total Storage Capacity : 2.7 Billion m3
Maximum Sent Out : 14.5 million m3/day
EGEGAZ Aliağa LNG Terrminal
Yearly Send-Out Capacity : 6.0 Billion m3
(Tank Capacity; 2 X 140.000 m3 LNG tanks)
Daily Maximum Sent Out : 16.4 million m3/day
Underground Storage
LNG Gasification Terminals
Planning Natural Gas Underground Storage
Planning LNG Gasification Terminals
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

12. LNG facilities
EGEGAZ
BOTAŞ
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

13. LNG TRADE
The role of Turkey in the global LNG trade
Source : International Gas Union, World LNG Report
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

14. Missing sea…
Source : DNV
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

15. Crazy project
Channel
Istanbul
Source : DNV
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

16. Thank You!
Okan Yardımcı
Energy Expert, Turkey
+90 532 798 85 50
oyardimci@epdk.org.tr
okanyardimci@gmail.com
www.enerjiuzmani.blogspot.com
Akçakoca, Black Sea, Turkey

17. Turkey as a natural transit country…
WORLD’S 2ND LARGEST
NATURAL GAS MARKET
NATURAL TRANSIT
ROUTE
WORLD’S LARGEST
OIL AND GAS
RESOURCES
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

18. Black Sea gas potential…
in the Turkish part of the Black Sea;
2006 - Studies at Sinop Region (TPAO, Exxon-Mobil, Petrobras)
2007 - Gas Exploration at Akçakoca Region (TPAO, OMV, Foinavon, Tiway) – yearly
production is 0,7 billion m3
2008 - Studies at Kastamonu & Samsun Region (TPAO, Exxon-Mobil)
2009 - Studies at Zonguldak Region (TPAO, Chevron)
2011 - Studies at Istranca Region (TPAO)
2013 – TPAO & Shell Agreement, Studies will start in 2014
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

19. Black Sea gas potential…
TPAO’s Istranca-1 offshore well tested natural gas. The well, drilled in the Western
Black Sea Licence AR/TPO/3920, has a water depth of 85 meters and a total depth
of 3650 meters. Istranca-1 well test proved the existence of hydrocarbons in the
Turkish Black Sea outside the 12-Mile territorial waters. The well test between 1318.September.2012 recovered gas from Middle Miocene aged sandstones.
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

20. Black Sea gas potential…
OMV, Total, Repsol studies in the Bulgaria part of the Black Sea.
Shell, Exxon Mobil, Petrom studies in the Ukraine part of the Black Sea.
Vanco studies at Prekarçinki, Ukraine.
Rosneft, Exxon Mobil studies at Tuapse, Russia.
Romania’s Gas Exploration (Neptun Block, 70.7 meters of net gas pay, preliminary
estimates 42-84 billion m3 – 3 to 6 times Romania’s gas consumption) (OMV
Petrom, Exxon-Mobil) (Deepwater Champion)
Chevron’s Studies about shale gas on Romania's Black Sea coast
Studies at Crimean peninsula
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

21. Natural gas price components
Components of Household Gas Price (7,950 Euro/GJ)
fiscal legislation
Private
Consumption
Tax; 3,6%
fiscal legislation
Value Added Tax;
15,3%
Storage Fee; 0,8%
Average
Distribution Fee;
2,9%
Average
Transmission
Fee; 3,2%
74,3%; Gas Price
+ Wholesale
Profit
Around 1/5 of the total annual consumption is using the storage facility.
0,8% is the average ratio.
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

22. Small-Scale LNG
Okan YARDIMCI
Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020
IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea