This document summarizes an original research article that explores indicators of social change through an analysis of two planned communities - Sippy Downs, Australia and Masdar City, United Arab Emirates. The study uses Sorokin's theory of cultural dynamics and pendulum theory of social change as a framework. It analyzes the urban design, architecture, and values of the two communities to gain insights into cultural change dynamics. The results indicate that Western society is in the late sensate phase and postmodernism shares characteristics with this phase. Sustainability thinking appears to bridge to an emerging idealistic phase, though green technology is emphasized more than social innovation.

1. ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Exploration of external indicators of social change
in postmodern communities
Marta Botta
Received: 29 September 2014 /Accepted: 11 December 2014
# The Author(s) 2015. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Abstract The current study explores external indicators of
social change through the lens of Sorokin’s theory of cultural
dynamics; utilising case studies of two master built commu-
nities from vastly different cultural and geographic back-
grounds (Sippy Downs, Australia, and Masdar City, United
Arab Emirates). These two communities are contrasted to gain
insight into the dynamics of social change in the 21st century.
The study confirmed Sorokin’s assumption that our Western
society is in the late sensate phase of sociocultural develop-
ment. Additionally, this late sensate phase was found to have
common characteristics with the postmodern paradigm. Fur-
ther, results of the residents’ survey confirmed Sippy Downs
as an integrated logico-meaningful culture in a postmodern
environment. This finding justified the inclusion of this par-
ticular population in the current study as a model of a typical
postmodern community. Additionally, weak signals indicating
the emergence of the next idealistic phase of sociocultural
change were detected in both communities, although there
was a variance in the nature of these signals. The study also
revealed that sustainability thinking appeared to be the bridge
to the next idealistic phase of sociocultural development.
However, Causal Layered Analysis revealed a lopsided ap-
proach to sustainability: an overemphasis of green technology
over the need for social innovation. The socio-semiotics anal-
ysis of urban design and architecture in the context of the two
case studies elicited a plausible pattern of sociocultural
change. The combination of qualitative and quantitative
methods using the Explorative Mixed Methods Research De-
sign enhanced the analysis and increased the robustness of the
results.
Keywords Social change . Macrohistory . Postmodern
architecture . Socio-semiotics . Mixed methods .
Neopragmatic postmodernism
Introduction
The rapidly changing social environment of the 21st century is
providing a rich and complex fabric of socio-cultural layers to
explore. The current study is exploring social change through
external indicators comprising tangible physical structures
and artefacts such us urban design, infrastructure and archi-
tecture. However, social phenomena have both exterior and
interior dimensions [1–4]. Therefore, focusing on external
manifestations must include analysis of their internal causa-
tion, since as Sorokin [5] postulates, there is a strong link
between inner thought processes, worldviews and external
phenomena, due to a propensity to “incorporate, or realize,
or externalise, the internal experience” [5, p. 20]. More spe-
cifically, Daffara [6] suggests that cultures express their spirit,
episteme and cosmology through architecture. Thus, to facil-
itate understanding of the dynamics and causation of cultural
change it is essential to place the external representations of
the given society into a social context.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article
(doi:10.1007/s40309-014-0061-6) contains supplementary material,
which is available to authorized users.
M. Botta
Sustainability Research Centre, Faculty of Arts and Business,
University of the Sunshine Coast, Locked Bag 4, Maroochydore DC,
Queensland 4558, Australia
M. Botta (*)
14, Oxford Close, Chancellor Park, QLD4556, Australia
e-mail: Marta.Botta@research.usc.edu.au
M. Botta
e-mail: mbharmony@gmail.com
Eur J Futures Res (2015) 3:1
DOI 10.1007/s40309-014-0061-6

2. Postmodernism as a social and cultural phenomenon has
been gradually taking foothold in most areas of western soci-
ety from the middle of the twentieth century. The postmodern
movement is typically opposing the previous modern era [7],
which according to Sardar [8] was characterised by unidirec-
tional progress, destroying cultures and communities and
causing environmental degradation. Therefore, it is timely that
the sustainability agenda is gaining prominence in postmodern
society. The destructive unsustainable path is countered by the
aspiration of the postmodern philosophical movement propos-
ing deconstruction and reordering of knowledge along a dif-
ferent paradigm. This process would consequently lead to
“insurrection of subjugated knowledges” [9, p. 7], to aid
transformation toward a more inclusive society.
Nonetheless, alerting to the layered nature of social reality
Inayatullah [10, p. 489] warns that “There is no simple global
solution without worldview transformation”. Further, Sardar
[11] expands the discourse with a new multicultural dimen-
sion by urging decolonisation of the future from the modernist
Western classifications of knowledge. Thus, the purpose for
the inclusion of one of the case studies in the current paper was
to demonstrate a non-Western multicultural approach to place
making in a context of a sustainable postmodern community
of the future. Accordingly, this study will contrast values and
worldviews of a typical Western postmodern sustainable com-
munity with those of a Middle Eastern eco-city development
possessing an inherently composite worldview by merging
Eastern and Western thinking.
Masdar City in the United Arab Emirates is a hyper-
modern purpose designed technologically advanced pro-
totype of a sustainable community where all current
residents are exploring sustainable living options. On
the other hand, the second case study - Sippy Downs,
Australia is an established conventional community
where not all the current residents are dedicated to sus-
tainable living practices. Many have chosen the location
for its proximity to schools, property prices and other
practical/material considerations; although the original
‘mission statement’ of the development was specifically
geared toward sustainability. However, in spite of some
tension between the ‘old’ and the’new’, and inconsis-
tencies in pursuing sustainability objectives, the commu-
nity is demonstrating potential for transformation in the
context of the postmodern mainstream Australian society.
The theoretical framework
Overview of the spatial theory used
Architecture acquired an enhanced significance in postmodern
society and is no longer merely a subject of aesthetics; it is
considered a spatial representation of underpinning
worldviews, to be analysed through the lens of social sciences.
Spatial theories are currently gaining prominence not only in
the social sciences, but also in architecture [12–14], since they
can facilitate insight into the ongoing social changes evident
through analysis of the urban environment.
Postmodernism in architecture is often viewed as a
“negation of modernism, but without a specific style or
ideology” [15, p. 127]. Modernist architecture with its
large scale, overt functionality, simplicity and vertical
lines had to give way to emerging architectural ideolo-
gies such as anthropometism (buildings at a smaller
scale). The emerging postmodern architecture in the
mid 20th century would display eclectic forms. These
forms often include classical elements such as columns
and curves. According to Anthony [16] curves induce a
higher order of harmony and connectivity through en-
trainment, while the observer visually traces a curved pattern.
Consequently, reintroduction of curves in postmodern archi-
tecture is bound to have a harmonising effect.
As opposed to the functionality of modernist architecture
postmodernism regards space as independent and autonomous
to be shaped according to aesthetic aims without a social
objective [7]. The main determining features of postmodern
architecture are identified by Jencks [2] as the as juxtaposition
of tastes, pluralism, urbane urbanism, anthropomorphism,
anamnesis, return to painting, the unexpected, multivalence,
strange forms, new rhetorical figures, and return to absent
centre – when the culture has a sense of departure but no clear
sense of direction.
Social change explored through the lens of neopragmatic
postmodernism
The analysis of temporal and spatial dimensions of postmod-
ern architecture is framed within Sorokin’s theory of social
change, encompassing the macrohistorical perspective [10,
17]. This study postulates that Sorokin’s pendulum theory
[17] as a methodological framework can accommodate and
explicate the sociocultural characteristics of postmodern soci-
ety; and by embedding these characteristics into a wider
historic context of super-rhythms it can offer further insight
into probable future outcomes. These super-rhythms consist
of two distinct phases: ideational phase – characterised by
reality as nonmaterial, and spiritual, striving for “self-imposed
minimization or elimination of most of their physical needs”
and the opposite of the ideational phase, the sensate phase –
preoccupied with modification or exploitation of the external
world and “it assumes an agnostic attitude towards the entire
world beyond the senses”[5] p. 27]. The pendulum is a anal-
ogy for a movement between the sensate (materialistic) phase
and ideational (spiritual) phase of sociocultural development
(Fig. 1). Moreover, in the transitional period between those
two extremes, the culture attempts to integrate both sides
1 Page 2 of 10 Eur J Futures Res (2015) 3:1

3. during the idealistic (rational) phase, which only accepts the
truth “when it appears to be reasonable and reconcilable with
the logical laws of the human mind…” [5] p. 227].
Most macrohistorians including Sorokin offer a singular
evolutionary path, that appears to be in epistemological ten-
sion with pluralism inherent to the postmodern worldview,
and seems to be in conflict with the preference of futures work
for open ended multiple outcomes. The current study is
attempting to merge these apparent polarities by employing
a novel lens of neopragmatic postmodernism [18]. According
to Minda [19] neopragmatic postmodernism denotes post-
modern critique, which goes beyond the truth claims of mo-
dernity, however, for empirical investigation it utilises theory
as a tool. In the current study Sorokin’s theory of cultural and
social dynamics is utilised as a tool of investigation in the
context of neopragmatic postmodernism. Pragmatism as a the-
oretical framework in futures work is endorsed by Bussey
[20]; suggesting that futures work is essentially pragmatic,
since it considers our thinking as well as our actions as zones
of multiplicity. Further, Minda [19] distinguishes the
neopragmatic approach from standard poststructural criticism,
and he goes beyond mere criticism by advocating a practical
approach to problem solving. In that respect, the neopragmatic
approach employed in this study can potentially constitute a
new stream within futures; going beyond poststructuralism
and postmodernism to post-postmodernism (?).
Methods
Mixed methods
Exploration of internal and external indicators of social
change in postmodern communities in this study is performed
through the Mixed Methods Research Design (MMRD). This
multiple methods design was chosen due to its association
with postmodernism, favouring multiple perspectives [21].
According to Nigel [21], MMRD as an applied multiple meth-
od, can make the research epistemologically sound by provid-
ing analytic density. This analytic density is built up by ad-
dressing all the relevant factors through historical, structural
and cultural dimensions [21], thus MMRD is particularly suit-
able for the current socio-cultural analysis. The advantage of
using quantitative research methods in conjunction with qual-
itative research lies in conveying sophistication to understand-
ing and explanation of social phenomena [22]. Mixed
methods gained acceptance amongst researchers in the
1980s, since they addressed epistemological ontological and
Fig. 1 Preference for design
features in future local
developments in Sippy Downs,
Australia
Eur J Futures Res (2015) 3:1 Page 3 of 10 1

4. axiological weaknesses of both the qualitative and quantita-
tive approaches [22].
According to Creswell, and Plano Clark [23] there are four
major mixed methods designs; triangulation, embedded de-
sign, explanatory design and exploratory design. Other au-
thors are suggesting a proliferation of various types of mixed
designs, however, the Exploratory Design was chosen for this
analysis due to its specific structure. In the Exploratory Design
priority is given to qualitative research methods [23]. The first
phase of the two-phase structure utilises qualitative methods
such as CLA to analyse the two case studies. Additionally,
socio-semiotic analysis will elucidate the connection between
external and internal dimensions of postmodern architecture,
and will give indication of development beyond postmodern-
ism. An advantage of using the Exploratory Design for the
current study is that it enables the development of an instru-
ment (a survey) as one was not readily available. Karlsen,
Øverland, & Karlsen [24] also postulate that mixed design is
appropriate for futures studies as it promotes ‘good research’
by combining the best of both methods (qualitative and
quantitative).
Merging qualitative and quantitative research methods: causal
layered analysis, survey, and socio-semiotic analysis
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is one of the primary quali-
tative research tools in this study. CLA offers analysis on four
vertical levels: litany, social causes, discourse/ worldview and
myth/metaphor [25]. Accordingly, Bussey [26] proposes to
utilise CLA as a vehicle to analyse the dynamic layered and
multiple nature of social reality. Thus, the use of CLA in the
current study is well suited for in-depth analysis of complex
underlying issues involved in social change processes. Addi-
tionally, Inayatullah [10, p. 815] postulates that CLA”is inclu-
sive of different ways of knowing”. Thus, CLA is particularly
suitable for the current analysis, since one of the case studies
(Masdar) presents novel non-Western worldviews.
The CLA works well with the specifically designed resi-
dents’ survey. This survey instrument was assembled by in-
corporating inputs from the CLA, and to ascertain the current
position of the sustainable community on the continuum of the
super-rhythm of sociocultural development [27].
Since futures research is an interdisciplinary methodology
[28], in addition to the above methods, this research also
adopts socio-semiotic analysis, to specify it to the spatial di-
mensions central to the current study. Generally, semiotics as a
linguistic tool focuses on the processes of meaning making.
However, socio-semiotics, as a more contemporary form of
postmodern urban semiotics, is a combination of sociology
and spatial semiotics, which is derived from architectural se-
miotics [15]. As an expansion of classical semiotics, socio-
semiotics also analyses exo semiotic dimensions such as pro-
duction of space, politics and economy. In fact, the reciprocal
relationship between ideology and material objects (such as
buildings) is the principal aim of a socio-semiotic analysis.
Case studies and analysis
Masdar City
Masdar City is the first eco-city in the world and is hailed as a
model of urban environmental sustainability (Lau 2012). The
city is the culmination of several decades of theoretical research
into sustainable development (Joss, 2010). The construction of
Masdar City started in 2007 on a desert area near the Abu Dhabi
airport. The city is planned as a highly sustainable community,
using only renewable energy and utilising innovative building
technology combined with some traditional design features.
Once finished Masdar City is going to be of sizeable propor-
tions. It will house 40,000 residents, 50,000 commuters, and
more than 1,500 businesses and educational institutions includ-
ing a university at it’s centre, dedicated to cutting edge research
with a sustainability focus. The design and technology of
Masdar City is reflecting the aspirations of a large international
team of environmentally conscious concept developers.
Considering Masdar City in the context of the United Arab
Emirates it is obvious that it has a unique role to play. It is part of
a new progressive sustainable image, promoted by HH Sheikh
Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, crown prince of Abu Dhabi.
Masdar City aspires to be “a global hub of energy and sustain-
ability”[29, p. 2]. Masdar is setting an example by banning
petrol driven cars on its streets and provides an attractive free
of charge alternative in the form of a network of small electric
cars called personal rapid transport (Online Resource 1).
Sippy downs
The second case study is focusing on an Australian communi-
ty, with similar ambitions, to achieve a high level of sustain-
ability. Sippy Downs is situated at the centre of Sunshine
Coast. It was established in 1993 and is built around the Uni-
versity of the Sunshine Coast, with the attached Innovation
Centre, housing the prominent Sustainability Research Centre.
In fact, Sippy Downs has been master planned as Australia’s
first university town and was designated as a ’Knowledge Hub’
in the Queensland Government’s South East Queensland In-
frastructure Plan [30]. Other schools in Sippy Downs include
the Siena Catholic College, Chancellor State College and a
Montessori College. These schools attracted a large number
of new residents in the past 6 years, and by 2011 there had
been a 10-fold increase in population amounting to 9,727 res-
idents according to the latest census [30].
The local council voiced aspirations to become
Australia’s most sustainable region (Sunshine Coast
Council 2011), and to support this endeavour it adopted
the Sunshine Coast Climate Change and Peak Oil
1 Page 4 of 10 Eur J Futures Res (2015) 3:1

5. Strategy to increase resilience and guide the transition to
reduced carbon and oil consumption. Sippy Downs, hous-
ing the University of the Sunshine Coast (USC) is de-
signed to be a showcase of sustainability.
CLA: contrasting Masdar City and Sippy downs
According to Inayatullah futures research is involved in the
exploration of “possible, probable and preferable futures and
of the worldview and myths that underlie each future” [25, p.
1]. CLA as a futures analytic tool is designed to reveal the
layered nature of reality through vertical dimensions such as
worldviews and myth of a given situation, thus it has the scope
to carry the analysis of sustainable communities deeper into
sociological, cultural and mythical spaces as outlined in Table 1.
On the litany level both communities have common themes;
they are founded on principles fostering sustainability and ed-
ucation. Another common feature is that they were both sup-
ported by local authorities right from the outset. Sippy Downs’
sustainable development is promoted by the local council and
the local Innovation Centre is holding regular events spon-
sored by regional authorities. Similarly, Masdar Institute hosts
many international sustainability related functions, some of
them sponsored by Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed himself
[29]. On the system level these two communities differ sub-
stantially from the original grass roots sustainable communi-
ties worldwide, living in subsistence mode on the fringes of
society. Therefore the two case studies may represent the next
transitional stage in sociocultural development, by mirroring
growing societal acceptance of progressive ideas.
On the worldview level, attitudes towards sustainability are
more relaxed in Sippy Downs, since there are no urgently press-
ing issues to threaten the status quo. This half hearted attitude is
consistent with the passive sensate cultural mentality [5]. On the
other hand, UAE feels the need to be more proactive about
sustainability, thus is a step ahead of Sippy Downs. The country’s
rulers are acutely aware that oil will run out 1 day, and since
UAE is built on oil, alternative sources of income need to be
sought to eliminate a potential collapse. UAE sees the solution in
fostering both tourism and sustainable sources of energy with the
aim of becoming the silicon valley for green energy [31].
According to Joss [31] most eco-cities focus on technolog-
ical innovation, ignoring social and cultural aspects such as
social justice and local democracy. In the case of Masdar
culturally bound social dissonance is not obvious at present,
perhaps due the general affluence of the population. The
metaphor for Masdar City - being in an arranged marriage,
is pointing to potential pitfalls of arranging the external ele-
ments of life meticulously while the inherent dichotomy of the
situation is ignored. Masdar is essentially an Arabic autocratic
collectivist community. However, at the same time it is
courting the individualistic democratic West, and exposing
the local population to outside cultural influences. This cul-
tural hybridity [32] may either bring balance if handled
skilfully or result in clashes of worldviews, as demonstrated
in surrounding areas through the upheavals of the Arab Spring
[33].
In Sippy Downs the USC has been widely advertising the
image of being the best of both worlds (nature and culture) to
attract both local and overseas students. Supported by the local
government, favoured by sea changers as one of the prettiest
places in Australia, the pitfall of this myth can be complacency
of a spoilt child (as a metaphor) and a resulting flagging mo-
tivation to continue on the path of improvement. However,
unless there is consistent push toward sustainability, the re-
sults may become just half baked.
Socio-semiotic analysis of Masdar City and Sippy downs
Masdar is considered to be a sustainable city of the future, and
an example to follow [34, 35]. Although at present it is only in
its embryonic form it is already attracting plenty of interest
worldwide. In comparison, Sippy Downs is relatively un-
known internationally, however, its advantage in replicability
Table 1 CLA of two sustainable postmodern communities
Layers Sippy downs Masdar city
Litany Education is important for our future starting
small - develop later sustainable image makes us
look progressive
Sustainable ways is the future for our country, and we can afford it
only the best will do no matter how long it takes to finish the
project
System Local building industry real estate companies
knowledge industry - schools USC & Innovation
Centre Sunshine Coast Regional Council
Global sustainability firms Masdar Institute of Technology Sheikh
Mohammed bin Zayed
Worldview We are different, more sustainable options are fine
as long as we don’t have to give up our creature
comforts
Oil reserves are limited, we have to be prepared for life after petrol,
we have to show to the world how to do sustainability, we are
leaders, tourists come to admire our work
Myth/Metaphor Mother’s favourite child – there is acknowledgement
and support by the local government we have the
best of both worlds
Arranged marriage –planned merging of unknown components with
potential for future friction
Eur J Futures Res (2015) 3:1 Page 5 of 10 1

6. since it is a smaller scale master built community. Although
visually and culturally the two communities are quite differ-
ent, they both share a common goal of sustainability.
Architectural paradigm Each of the analysed communities
contains a university at the epicentre of the development.
These universities, University of the Sunshine Coast (USC)
and Masdar Institute are analysed as signs along the associa-
tional axis. The obvious purpose of the university buildings is
education. However, the university also signifies a sense of
identity for the surrounding community: as a university town
in Sippy Downs, and as a sustainability knowledge center in
Masdar.
The objective of the 21st century, to become a knowledge
society where knowledge is commoditised and becomes part
of the market economy is in accordance with the postmodern
paradigm and the materialistic sensate society. Since the 1980s
there was a gradual shift in the focus of Western universities
from the production of academic knowledge to the fostering
of employable candidates ready to compete in the ‘dog eats
dog’ environment of late capitalism [36].
According to Inayatullah [37, p. 19] “we need social tech-
nologies to repair the damage we have caused to ourselves, to
nature and to others”. The solution seem to lie in social
engineering inspired by peace studies [38] education about
gender equity [39] and sustainability [40]. USC is one of the
handful of universities worldwide incorporating these con-
cerns through their futures studies education, however,
Masdar Institute although innovative in nature, is still entirely
technology oriented. The ‘deification’ of science through
current academic establishments such as the Masdar Institute
confirms the position of the culture as a product of the late
sensate period of societal development.
Economic considerations are also prominent in both uni-
versities. Recently, development came to a halt in Masdar City
due to the GFC, resulting in restraint being exercised by
developers and investors. In Australia, the government is
urging universities to act as businesses and compete in the
marketplace. Government subsidies are diminishing and the
USC has to survive by boosting the numbers of fee paying
overseas students to increase revenue. These developments
are further confirmation of the accuracy of predictions of early
last century scholars [5, 41] about the perils of the rampant
neoliberalism of the late sensate sociocultural phase.
The motif of the USC complex is a fibro beach shack,
regarded by John Mainwaring, co-designer of the multi-award
winning USC Library (Online Resource 2) a typical Austra-
lian coastal architecture, with simplicity and unpretentious-
ness [42]. Thus most buildings at the USC display vernacular
styles reminiscent of local historic patterns. Vernacular archi-
tectural style along with historic/nostalgic features is typical in
postmodern architecture [2, 7]. Apart from the university, a
large number of residential dwellings in the Sippy Downs area
also derives inspiration from history as demonstrated in “On-
line Resource 3”; indicating anamnesis, nostalgia, and pas-
tiche – hallmarks of postmodern architecture, as described by
Jencks [2].
Throughout the USC innovative practices were implement-
ed for natural air-conditioning (chilled water to supply cool
buildings), high loft ceilings designed for natural air circula-
tion and prominent thermal chimneys on most buildings
(Online Resource 4) . Many of these structures have odd
shapes and unexpected angles including the ‘J’ build-
ing and the art gallery tilting dangerously to one side
(Online Resource 5). These strange forms and dissonant
beauty as a displacement of convention as well as stylistic
pluralism are typical of postmodern architecture [2]. Diversity
in architectural styles at the USC has a connotative secondary
function, mirroring complexity and pluralism inherent to the
late capitalist society, as well as reflecting the notion that the
culture has no unified sense of direction.
Both case studies display a large number of connotative
codes pertaining to a sustainability typology. Masdar City is a
pompous display of a futuristic vision (see details in “Online
Resource 6”). As a display home of sustainability it boosts a
massive 10 MW solar photovoltaic plant built across 22
hectares, powering the institute. The motif of the whole com-
plex displays more homogeneity than Sippy Downs. Despite
of a clear futuristic leaning displayed in some buildings like
the Knowledge Centre covered by a spherical roof with solar
panels (Online Resource 7) and the stainless steel Wind Tower
for cooling, modelled on traditional building practices (Online
Resource 8), it resembles a socio-spatial experience of the past
with small squares, exclusive pedestrian traffic and narrow
streets. It is evident that inspiration was borrowed from tradi-
tional Arabic architecture, particularly in the design of the
Masdar Institute itself, with window screens bearing a resem-
blance to the classical intricate mashrabiya latticework
(Online Resource 9). These particular designs are clusters
of a classic Arabic singular stellation (Sutton, 2007),
however, the wavy façade is lending it a more contemporary
postmodern feel.
The window shields, nonetheless, are not just decorations.
Apart from shielding the interior from the sun the curves
provide an angled view to protect the privacy of the inhabi-
tants. Privacy is important in Arabic culture and accordingly
the campus is segregated by gender, separating the living
quarters for single men and women and families. However,
the function and connotations of the traditional Islamic orna-
ment go even deeper. According to Sutton [43, p. 50] “It seeks
to compensate for the spiritual losses of civilisation by re-
establishing something of the primordial beauty of virgin
nature, and to transport the viewer from immersion in the
mundane to serene contemplation”. The expressed sentiment
(spirituality) can be seen as an indication of Masdar’s move-
ment toward the ideational phase of societal development.
1 Page 6 of 10 Eur J Futures Res (2015) 3:1

7. This dimension is in contrast with the multifarious utilitarian
design of the USC in Sippy Downs, catering to a more secular
community.
The syntagmatic dimension The analysis of this dimension
requires a bird’s eye view of the way space is engineered.
Looking at the map of Sippy Downs at “Online Resource 10”
it is obvious that there are no straight streets or regular rect-
angular blocks. Most streets are curved, although there is
no need to negotiate any topographic obstacles, since
most of the area is flat, built on reclaimed sugar cane
fields. There are plenty of short cul-de-sacs lending
interest. As a clear departure from classical town plan-
ning, there is no centralised city centre. The major shop-
ping area is at the edge of the development close to the
motorway, and so is the university, which is otherwise
central to the purpose of the area (being a university
town). The university itself follows the same spatial
ordering as the town, with a complex network of paths
spread over a large area. The pattern of buildings is not
intuitive and gives a haphazard appearance both in size
and style. This decentralised multivalence is in agree-
ment with common postmodern building practices [2].
Unlike other universities, the USC encourages the general
public to utilise the premises; and to achieve this goal a
number of festivals and family friendly social and sports
activities are taking place at the university grounds throughout
the year. There is no fencing or clear demarcation of bound-
aries between the surrounding community and university ei-
ther. To connect with the community the USC houses a large
public bus terminal and a number of local bus routes run right
through it. There is also a well attended art gallery, cafes and a
bookshop catering for everyone. This syntagmatic arrange-
ment is evidence of a pluralistic view and carries a typological
meaning connoting the ideology of inhabitation [44] as a
public space to bring people together for social purposes in a
non-discriminatory manner. This pluralism, open minded at-
titudes and expressed multiculturalism (see survey results
below) are features of a typical postmodern society.
On the other hand, current aspirations of Masdar Institute
differ markedly from those of the USC. The Institute (and the
surrounding Masdar City) is quite exclusive and permits need
to be obtained before visiting in a group. It is only open to the
general public from Sundays to Thursdays 8.30 am-4.30 pm.
Essentially, the institute is built as a city within a city (in the
Masdar City context), resembling the structure of a Byzantine
imperial palace. The Masdar Institute has substantial sur-
rounding walls to shield it from the outside world, indicating
a need for protection and introversion. This design feature is
analogous with the worlds oldest university, the Al-Azhar
mosque in Cairo, funded around 970 AD. The university is
intended to be a peaceful centre for learning, yet, it resembles
a fortress [45]. The reasons for this walled design for Masdar
may be a need for protection from the elements or from
potential intruders (?).
The urban design of the future Masdar City reveals an
organised cityscape designed as a mesh with parallel streets
crossing in right angles. The institute, hotel and conference
centre and Masdar headquarters form the central city area. The
rapid rail line crosses the city through the middle, with an
obvious aim of making public transport accessible from most
locations. The topographic perspective the city’s layout re-
veals a centralised urban design representing balance and
order. This is in stark contrast to Sippy Downs with its
irregular shapes and seemingly uncoordinated urban plan.
The variance in urban design between the two sustainable
communities alludes to the nature of the underlying ideolog-
ical causations. The analysis revealed a sufficient number of
syntactic and semantic codes to enable classification of Sippy
Downs as a typical postmodern community. However, Masdar
City does not fit into the same mould. In contrast to the
ambiguous postmodern architecture it exhibits a desire for
clear lines, order, beauty, and spirituality, reaching beyond
the uncertainty and vagueness of postmodernity.
Transferring these emerging design features of Masdar City
on the classification proposed by Sorokin, it appears that
Masdar represents the idealistic period of sociocultural
change, as according to Sorokin [5, p. 221] the idealistic
architecture is “Moderate but marvellously effective in its
means, techniques, and instrumentalities. Harmonious in its
inner and external synthesis of Ideational and Sensate beauty.”
In comparison, as demonstrated above, the postmodern/
sensate Sippy Downs university design tends to display a
“Most complicated technique, artificially designed to sensu-
ally impress, to stun, to ‘hit’” [5, p. 221]. Since the sensate
society is followed by the emergence of idealistic culture
according to Sorokin’s theory of social change, the self-
proclaimed assertion that Masdar is a template for the cities
of the future appears to be valid, based on the inference of the
previously analysed external indicators of social change.
Implications of the findings of the residents’survey
for the processes of social change
Spengler, Werner, & Atkinson [41, p. 160] propose that “ev-
ery culture possesses its own systematic psychology just as it
possesses its own style of knowledge of men and experience
of life”. Similarly, Sorokin postulates that one of the charac-
teristics of a mature culture is that it is integrated into a logico-
meaningful system. A logico-meaningful culture displays in-
ternally consistent traits which are changing due to the inbuilt
nature of the system rather than due to the effect of external
forces [5]. Thus Sorokin would take the side of nature in the
nature versus nurture debate.
Since the aim of the current study is to gain comprehensive
insight into the nature and direction of social change, it is
Eur J Futures Res (2015) 3:1 Page 7 of 10 1

8. pertinent to investigate whether the current postmodern cul-
ture in Sippy Downs can be viewed as an integrated logico-
meaningful system about to move into the next phase of
sociocultural development. Consequently, a survey was de-
vised to ascertain the worldviews of local residents and their
visions for the future of their community. These views were
compared with established elements of the postmodern world-
view, based on architectural signs, and specific indicators of
social cohesion [2, 46]. Additionally, attitudes to sustainability
were canvassed to elucidate the possible future direction of the
community, considering the next post-postmodern phase of
sociocultural development. The consistency of responses
across the above parameters points to a high level of logico-
meaningful integration of the Sippy Downs community.
The survey of 50 residents of Sippy Downs revealed that
they predominantly preferred retro style, colonial, Mediterra-
nean dwellings with unique curved or complex design (36 %)
over standard square design (2 %) as demonstrated by Fig. 1.
Retro style dwellings pointing to anamnesis, meaning sug-
gested recollection with nostalgia and pastiche [2] are domi-
nant building styles throughout Sippy Downs, thus based on
the preferences of respondents the community is already inte-
grated on that particular level.
Further, preferences for types of leisure activities in future
developments showed the highest desire for live music
(59.18 %) in a multipurpose community centre (72 %)
surrounded by a large variety of dining options (56 %), al-
though there is already a decent selection of restaurants in the
area. These responses are consistent with the sensual hedonis-
tic characteristics of the sensate cultural mentality. In compar-
ison, a need for a larger variety of places of worship or
religious centres was stipulated by only 10 % of respondents.
This result was expected, since spirituality is central to the
ideational cultural mentality, but it is sidelined and replaced
by science in the current materialistic sensate society [5].
Altogether, 92 % of respondents felt a sense of belonging to
their postmodern environment in Sippy Downs, pointing to a
high level of social cohesion [47]. Their willingness to wel-
come immigrants to strengthen the community (favoured by
48 % of respondents), indicates support for multiculturalism.
Similar results were found by the national report on social
cohesion in Australia reporting that multiculturalism “is
established as a strong and supported ‘brand’, one that reso-
nates with the Australian people” [46, p. 3]. Multiculturalism
along with globalisation are considered to be traits of a
postmodern era.
Sustainability is an emergent theme worldwide, and al-
ready in 2003 in the Maroochy 2025 : community visioning
[48] about 69 % of residents of the wider Sunshine Coast area
identified protection of the natural environment as very im-
portant. In the current survey 50 % of Sippy Downs respon-
dents identified themselves specifically as strong supporters of
sustainable development. Accordingly, they chose solar
power, water recycling (66 %), parks, nature strip (70 %),
public transport (74 %) and community gardens (74 %) as
desirable features for the future of their local community.
Moreover, 50 % of respondents see themselves as individuals
rather than a part of their community or a religious group. This
result may indicate that individualism and collectivist thinking
are reasonably well balanced in the current community. The
gradual decline of dominant individualism of late capitalism is
a weak signal of imminent transformation in worldviews and
aspirations of the inhabitants, leading them towards the
idealist era. Working together toward preferred sustainable
futures as a hallmark of collectivism would be central to the
holistically sustainable city of future fostering an idealistic
culture [49, 6].
In sum, the community profile of Sippy Downs derived
from the survey revealed that the community has characteris-
tics consistent with a logico-meaningfully integrated culture
representing a postmodern/sensate society. In addition, a sub-
tle shift was observed towards the next phase of sociocultural
development. This phase, determined by Sorokin [5, p. 39] as
the idealistic culture mentality is balancing spiritual and ma-
terialistic elements with a motto:”live and let live”. On the
other hand, the socio-semiotic analysis of Masdar City detect-
ed a significant number of features consistent with the ideal-
istic culture mentality. The analysis demonstrated how archi-
tecture can gently guide society in a new direction [50].
Unlike some other cultures in nearby Asia, Masdar has an
advantage of being built in the steadfast Arab cultural envi-
ronment where traditions and collectivism have not been
significantly affected by the hegemonic forces of globalisation
and imperial colonialism inherent to late capitalism [51].
Conclusion
The current study considered aspects of urban design and
architecture as external indicators of social change in a context
of two master built communities: Masdar City and Sippy
Downs. The mixed methods utilised in this study analysed
both temporal and spatial perspectives of architecture and
urban designs. The temporal perspectives situated the case
studies within the framework of Sorokin’s theory of social
change, enhanced with the analysis of postmodernism as a
determining feature of the late sensate phase of societal de-
velopment. The socio-semiotic analysis informed by the find-
ings of CLA indicated a transition of Masdar City from the
late sensate to the idealistic phase of social change, whereas
the socio-semiotic analysis paired with the residents’ survey
indicated that Sippy Downs, in spite of weak signals of ideal-
istic cultural mentality, is still firmly grounded in the late
sensate mentality embracing the postmodern worldview. The
survey, as part of the mixed design, enhanced the understanding
1 Page 8 of 10 Eur J Futures Res (2015) 3:1

9. of drivers and the underlying processes of social change. How-
ever, because of the small sample size the results cannot be
considered generalisible. Statistics from the previous comparison
study cited were more robust, but since the survey designs
differed and questions could only be overlaid to a limited extent,
the statistical significance of the results was difficult to ascertain.
The combination of qualitative and quantitative research
methods within the framework of mixed methods delivered a
multilayered comprehensive picture of the subject of analysis.
The opportunity to cross reference and illuminate finer details
facilitated by this approach was well worth the extra effort.
Therefore mixed methods are recommended for consideration
to any futures/foresight practitioner demanding unmatched
strength and depth in their research. However, this approach
demands a broad knowledge base and high level analytic
skills from the intrepid practitioner.
Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the
source are credited.
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