ecoDREAMS-S: Modelling the impact of climate change on milk performance in organic dairy farms in Spain_Alejandro Ruete and Isabel Blanco-Penedo LiveM_Macsur_Bilbao_2014

1. ecoDREAMS-S: Modelling the impact of climate change on milk performance in organic dairy farms in Spain
Alejandro Ruete, Antoni Velarde, Isabel Blanco-Penedo
Swedish Species Information Centre , Sweden
Animal Welfare Subprogram, IRTA, Catalonia

2. Heat stress, why it matters?
• Poor Animal welfare
• Restriction of farm efficiency
–reproductive behaviour & conception (Villagómez et al., 2000)
–Changes in milk quality (Bertocchi et al., 2014)
–Increased mortality risk (Vitali et al., 2009)
Slide 1

3. Heat stress - Organic farming, why it matters?
• Organic cows can better capture farm conditions by the interconnection environment- animal health-food quality
Slide 2
• Different breeds under organic management in Spain (select traits that suit better in organic)

4. Heat stress - Organic farming, why it matters?
• Matrix of farms with different management practices
–Tactical management: Annual decisions e.g. crop rotation planning, fertilization planning, herd structure planning
– Operational management: Some farms have permanently outdoors the cows
• Less metabolically challenged cows ?
• Organic farmers are also own dairy producers!
Slide 3

5. The study: heat stress in organic dairy
farms in Spain
Introduction
• 35% of the total census of organic
dairy farms in Spain.
• Geographical distribution:
– GREEN SPAIN MODEL (Atlantic,
Oceanic, continental
Mediterranean and mountain
climate)
Slide 4
http://www.impro-dairy.eu/

6. Data source
•Primary data source (farm visits): welfare assessment (ABM, resources)
•Cow Test-day milk records retrieved from the Spanish Milk Recording Scheme (CONAFE) from January 2012 to October 2013
•Meteorological data (for THI index calculation) retrieved from AEMET (State Meteorological Agency) for the same period
Slide 5

7. EcoDREAMS-Spain: Ecological Dairy cows Response to Environmental And Management Stress- Spain)
•Empirical modeling
–causality and
–effet sized infered with regressions
•Programming language used: JAGS thrugh R
Slide 6

8. •Response variables
–Individual Milk yield
–Individual milk composition (fat, protein)
–Somatic Cell Counts (SCC)
Level
N
Farms
26
Parities
2013
Cows
1504
Measurements
15283
EcoDREAMS-Spain
Slide 7

9. •Explanatory variables
–Days in lactation (DIM)
–Temperature-humidity index (THI)
–Housing and building conditions (stall type and warm or outdoor climate)
–Cow genetics
Slide 8
EcoDREAMS-Spain

10. MilkYield = γf * DIMβ * e-ρ * DIM + δ * THI OR + logitTHI logitTHI = 1 - (1/ 1+e(-THI + inf))
Model
ΔDIC
Note
Null
0
Woods 1967 (DIM)
2828
Woods + Farms
2828
Woods + THI
2866
Logit Cr=83
Woods + δTHI
2867
Cr=80, δ (+)
Linear
2802
Linear + δTHI
2925
δ (+)
EcoDREAMS-Spain
Slide 9

11. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E02
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E03
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E04
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E05
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E07
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E08
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E09
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E10
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E12
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E13
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E15
Milk Yield (kg)
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E16
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E18
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E19
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E21
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E22
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E24
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E25
0 100 200 300 400
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E26
0 100 200 300 400
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E27
0 100 200 300 400
MilkData$dil[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E28
Days in Lactation
Slide 10

12. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E02
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E03
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E04
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E05
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E07
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E08
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E09
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E10
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E12
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E13
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E15
Milk Yield (kg)
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E16
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E18
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E19
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E21
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E22
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E24
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E25
40 50 60 70 80
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E26
40 50 60 70 80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E27
40 50 60 70 80
MilkData$THI[w F]
MilkData$milk.yield[wF]
E28
THI Slide 11

13. Further steps and needs
• Environment & Animal Welfare
• Management tools tailored to farm- specific conditions-(identifying the best options for buffering against climatic extremes for the future about animal welfare)
Slide 12
• Take “cow signals”= welfare challenge=predictors
• Earlier detection, better prognostic (predictive models)

14. Many Thanks for your attention!
Eskerrik asko!!
Acknowledgement: Grant request to Alejandro Ruete