This document summarizes Jess Stauth's presentation on being open source in quantitative finance. Some key points:
- Open source can benefit quant finance through transparency, robustness from many eyes on code, and access to global talent. However, there are also costs and risks around IP leakage.
- Many quant firms use a mosaic of open source and proprietary components. Research tools are often open source while backtesting and production systems rely on proprietary models and data.
- Quantopian actively maintains several open source projects and contributes to others like Jupyter, Pandas, and PyMC3 to benefit the quant community. Being open can also help hiring.
"Quant Trading for a Living – Lessons from a Life in the Trenches" by Andreas...Quantopian
It takes hard work, skill and time to develop robust trading models, but that is just the beginning of the journey. The question then is what you can do with it, and how to go about building a career in quant finance.
If your plan is to move beyond hobby trading and build a career in in the professional quant trading field, the work is not over once you have a great model.
This presentation will discuss how to leverage your trading models into building a successful career in quant trading. We will look at the various options available, and their respective merits and faults. Whether you want to trade your own money for a living, find a job in the industry or build your own business, your model design will have to be adapted to your aim. We will discuss what type of models and results there is a market for, how to go about finding investors for your trading, and how the real economics of the business look.
"A Framework-Based Approach to Building Quantitative Trading Systems" by Dr. ...Quantopian
Contrary to popular wisdom the difference between a retail quant trader and a professional portfolio manager is not in "having better trade entry and exit rules". Rather it is the difference in how each approaches the concepts of portfolio optimisation and risk management.
Both of these topics are synonymous with heavy math, which can be off-putting for beginner retail systematic traders. Hence, it can be extremely daunting for those without institutional experience to know how to turn a set of trading rules into a robust portfolio and risk management system.
In this talk, Mike will discuss how to take a typical retail quant strategy and place it in a professional quantitative trading framework, with proper position sizing and risk assessment, without resorting to pages of formulas or the need to have a PhD in statistics!
"Portfolio Optimisation When You Don’t Know the Future (or the Past)" by Rob...Quantopian
We generally assume the past is a good guide to the future, but well do we even know the past? What effect does this uncertainty when estimating inputs have on the notoriously unstable algorithms for portfolio optimization?
I explore this issue, look at some commonly used solutions, and also introduce some alternative methods.
"From Alpha Discovery to Portfolio Construction: Pitfalls and Solutions" by D...Quantopian
From QuantCon 2017: Implementation is the efficient translation of alpha research into portfolios. It includes portfolio construction and trading. It is a vital step in the quant equity workflow, as poor implementation can ruin even the best alpha ideas. Two crucial challenges must be solved: how to construct a portfolio that most efficiently captures a given alpha signal; and, in the presence of multiple signals, how to optimally combine them into a single composite alpha factor.
This talk addresses these challenges, examines common pitfalls in the implementation of quantitative strategies and good practices to avoid them. A common theme is striking the right balance between factor signal purity and investability. We look at how factor models and optimisation techniques help professional investors answer three key questions:
· What risks should your risk model be cognisant of?
· What objective function should you use?
· What effect do investability constraints have on your portfolio?
An introduction to implementing 5 basic quant strategies on Quantopian. Presented to the Bay Area Algorithmic Trading Group and the Bay Area Trading Signals meetup groups at the Hacker Dojo Feb 6th, 2014 by Jess Stauth
Automated Selection and Robustness for Systematic Trading Strategies by Dr. T...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Even with a wide range of statistical tools available, selection of algorithmic trading strategies can
leave the trader with significant out-of-sample variability. In most cases the final decision making
is still a manual process.
This presentation will show how a combination of statistical methods and machine learning can help to automate strategy selection and boost the robustness of automated trading systems.
"From Trading Strategy to Becoming an Industry Professional – How to Break in...Quantopian
You have created a great trading strategy, backtested, traded it and now you want to take it to the next level. You may find that developing the strategy was just the first of many difficult steps.
With the increased availability of low cost, high quality quant modelling platforms, the field is much more open than it once was. The interest for algorithmic trading his higher than ever and anyone has the potential develop a great trading model.
But having a great trading model is not enough. The work is not done yet.
This presentation will discuss turning your algorithmic trading strategy into a business or a great job, and becoming a professional trader. We’re going to talk about what it takes to move to the next level and where the common pitfalls lay. What kind of strategies are marketable are which are not. The pros and cons of trading your own money and how to go about finding external capital and gaining traction in the business.
Are you ready to take the step?
Should You Build Your Own Backtester? by Michael Halls-Moore at QuantCon 2016Quantopian
The huge uptake of Python and R as first-class programming languages within quantitative trading has lead to an abundance of backtesting libraries becoming widely available. It can take months, if not years, to develop a robust backtesting and trading infrastructure from scratch and many of the vendors (both commercial and open source) have a huge head start. Given such prevalence and maturity of the available software, as well as the time investment needed for development, is there any benefit to building your own?
In this talk, Mike will argue the advantages and disadvantages of building your own infrastructure, how to develop and improve your first backtesting system and how to make it robust to internal and external risk events. The talk will be of interest whether you are a retail quant trader managing your own capital or are forming a start-up quant fund with initial seed funding.
"Quant Trading for a Living – Lessons from a Life in the Trenches" by Andreas...Quantopian
It takes hard work, skill and time to develop robust trading models, but that is just the beginning of the journey. The question then is what you can do with it, and how to go about building a career in quant finance.
If your plan is to move beyond hobby trading and build a career in in the professional quant trading field, the work is not over once you have a great model.
This presentation will discuss how to leverage your trading models into building a successful career in quant trading. We will look at the various options available, and their respective merits and faults. Whether you want to trade your own money for a living, find a job in the industry or build your own business, your model design will have to be adapted to your aim. We will discuss what type of models and results there is a market for, how to go about finding investors for your trading, and how the real economics of the business look.
"A Framework-Based Approach to Building Quantitative Trading Systems" by Dr. ...Quantopian
Contrary to popular wisdom the difference between a retail quant trader and a professional portfolio manager is not in "having better trade entry and exit rules". Rather it is the difference in how each approaches the concepts of portfolio optimisation and risk management.
Both of these topics are synonymous with heavy math, which can be off-putting for beginner retail systematic traders. Hence, it can be extremely daunting for those without institutional experience to know how to turn a set of trading rules into a robust portfolio and risk management system.
In this talk, Mike will discuss how to take a typical retail quant strategy and place it in a professional quantitative trading framework, with proper position sizing and risk assessment, without resorting to pages of formulas or the need to have a PhD in statistics!
"Portfolio Optimisation When You Don’t Know the Future (or the Past)" by Rob...Quantopian
We generally assume the past is a good guide to the future, but well do we even know the past? What effect does this uncertainty when estimating inputs have on the notoriously unstable algorithms for portfolio optimization?
I explore this issue, look at some commonly used solutions, and also introduce some alternative methods.
"From Alpha Discovery to Portfolio Construction: Pitfalls and Solutions" by D...Quantopian
From QuantCon 2017: Implementation is the efficient translation of alpha research into portfolios. It includes portfolio construction and trading. It is a vital step in the quant equity workflow, as poor implementation can ruin even the best alpha ideas. Two crucial challenges must be solved: how to construct a portfolio that most efficiently captures a given alpha signal; and, in the presence of multiple signals, how to optimally combine them into a single composite alpha factor.
This talk addresses these challenges, examines common pitfalls in the implementation of quantitative strategies and good practices to avoid them. A common theme is striking the right balance between factor signal purity and investability. We look at how factor models and optimisation techniques help professional investors answer three key questions:
· What risks should your risk model be cognisant of?
· What objective function should you use?
· What effect do investability constraints have on your portfolio?
An introduction to implementing 5 basic quant strategies on Quantopian. Presented to the Bay Area Algorithmic Trading Group and the Bay Area Trading Signals meetup groups at the Hacker Dojo Feb 6th, 2014 by Jess Stauth
Automated Selection and Robustness for Systematic Trading Strategies by Dr. T...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Even with a wide range of statistical tools available, selection of algorithmic trading strategies can
leave the trader with significant out-of-sample variability. In most cases the final decision making
is still a manual process.
This presentation will show how a combination of statistical methods and machine learning can help to automate strategy selection and boost the robustness of automated trading systems.
"From Trading Strategy to Becoming an Industry Professional – How to Break in...Quantopian
You have created a great trading strategy, backtested, traded it and now you want to take it to the next level. You may find that developing the strategy was just the first of many difficult steps.
With the increased availability of low cost, high quality quant modelling platforms, the field is much more open than it once was. The interest for algorithmic trading his higher than ever and anyone has the potential develop a great trading model.
But having a great trading model is not enough. The work is not done yet.
This presentation will discuss turning your algorithmic trading strategy into a business or a great job, and becoming a professional trader. We’re going to talk about what it takes to move to the next level and where the common pitfalls lay. What kind of strategies are marketable are which are not. The pros and cons of trading your own money and how to go about finding external capital and gaining traction in the business.
Are you ready to take the step?
Should You Build Your Own Backtester? by Michael Halls-Moore at QuantCon 2016Quantopian
The huge uptake of Python and R as first-class programming languages within quantitative trading has lead to an abundance of backtesting libraries becoming widely available. It can take months, if not years, to develop a robust backtesting and trading infrastructure from scratch and many of the vendors (both commercial and open source) have a huge head start. Given such prevalence and maturity of the available software, as well as the time investment needed for development, is there any benefit to building your own?
In this talk, Mike will argue the advantages and disadvantages of building your own infrastructure, how to develop and improve your first backtesting system and how to make it robust to internal and external risk events. The talk will be of interest whether you are a retail quant trader managing your own capital or are forming a start-up quant fund with initial seed funding.
Beware of Low Frequency Data by Ernie Chan, Managing Member, QTS Capital Mana...Quantopian
It is commonly believed that low frequency strategies require only low frequency data for backtesting. We will show that using low frequency data can lead to dangerously inflated backtest results even for low frequency strategies. Examples will be drawn from a closed end fund strategy, a long-short stock strategy, and a futures strategy.
This presentation was part of the QuantCon 2015 Conference hosted by Quantopian. Visit us at: www.quantopian.com.
A Guided Tour of Machine Learning for Traders by Tucker Balch at QuantCon 2016Quantopian
You’ve probably heard about Machine Learning and you likely know it is of emerging importance for trading and investing. Unfortunately it is a deeply technical field and the complexity and jargon get in the way of broader use and understanding. There are literally hundreds of learning algorithms that each solve a slightly different problem. Which algorithms really matter for investing? In this presentation, Professor Balch will help declutter the ML jungle. He’ll introduce a few of the most important ML algorithms and show how they can be applied to the challenges of trading.
Combining the Best Stock Selection Factors by Patrick O'Shaughnessy at QuantC...Quantopian
Patrick will explore how to combine the value factor with other stock selection factors to build a superior stock selection strategy. He will discuss unique ways of using momentum, share buybacks, and quality factors to improve on a simple value screen. He will discuss portfolio concentration, rebalancing, and risk management. He will also explain why the best versions of these strategies are only possible for smaller firms and investors.
"Trading Strategies That Are Designed Not Fitted" by Robert Carver, Independe...Quantopian
Engineers design stuff. Why do Quants prefer to fit? In this talk, Robert will explain what designing a trading system actually involves, explore why designing might be better than fitting, and introduce some of the tools you could use. He will also take you through the design process for an example trading strategy.
Finally, he will discuss how we can have the best of both worlds: strategies that are well designed and also fitted to the data.
Statistics - The Missing Link Between Technical Analysis and Algorithmic Trad...Quantopian
Trading leveraged derivatives using only technical analysis or speculative analysis can lead to windfall losses for even the most disciplined trader and investor. Statistics are often an ignored area of work when it comes to derivatives trading. Our talk shall focus upon how volatility can be used for dynamically adjusting the stop losses. It will talk about how correlation is an essential method to diversify the class of derivatives being traded or hedged. It will focus on co-integration as a key method to distinguish a mean reverting time series to a non-mean reverting time series. It will touch upon other essential time series econometrics like OU process, VRT as well as statistical tools like PCA, ARCH, GARCH etc. which are essential for derivatives pricing and forecasting the volatility.
"Is Momentum Still Relevant for Today’s Markets?" by Anthony Ng, Senior LecturerQuantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Despite being ‘discovered’ over 20 years ago, there is still confusion on what a momentum strategy entails and people ‘invest in momentum’. There are two generally accepted definitions of momentum in academic literature. In the quantitative equity investment sphere, momentum is frequently referred to as across securities or assets (cross-sectional or relative) and typically traded in a long-short or hedged manner. In futures trading, momentum is often referred to the past return of the security (time-series) and normally traded in a directional fashion.
Following from the above, we conducted an analysis on the performance of a momentum strategy of different asset classes: equity, fixed income, futures, and currencies. The study showed that both types of momentum are prevalent and persistent across all asset classes. Furthermore, as the correlations between the two types of momentum strategies and amongst the asset classes are quite low, substantial diversification benefit can be derived by combining them.
MLX 2018 - Marcos López de Prado, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Comp...Mehdi Merai Ph.D.(c)
Presented by: Marcos López de Prado, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Computational Research Division
MLX FinTech Conference II, Toronto, May 2018.
More info at: https://www.machinelearningx.net
The QuantCon Keynote: "Counter Trend Trading – Threat or Complement to Trend ...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Over the past 30 years, trend following has been a remarkably successful futures trading strategy. Once a fringe trading style barely known outside of Chicago, it has grown into a 300 billion dollar global industry. It would be very difficult indeed to claim that trend following doesn’t work in the face of decades of empirical evidence otherwise. But trend following isn’t completely without problems.
It is well known that classic trend following models tend to lose money on a majority of trades. This is not necessarily an issue, since trend following is all about accepting a large number of small losses in exchange for a small number of large gains. As long as the net is positive, all is fine. That is the underlying idea of the strategy and it has historically worked very well.
However, if you dissect trend following models you can find weaknesses which could be exploited. This is what counter trend trading models are about. These counter trend models usually operate on a shorter time frame and with nearly opposite logic.
As counter trend models are gaining popularity in the systematic trading hedge fund field, a few questions arise. Are these models a threat to trend following? Can they be a complement to trend following? Can trend following be adapted to be less susceptible to the counter trend issue?
"Fundamental Forecasts: Methods and Timing" by Vinesh Jha, CEO of ExtractAlphaQuantopian
From QuantCon 2017:
Fundamental and quantitative stock selection research has long focused on creating accurate forecasts of company fundamentals such as earnings and revenues. In this talk we examine why fundamental forecasts are powerful and survey some classic methods for generating these forecasts. Next we explore some newer methodologies which can be effective in generating more accurate fundamental forecasts, including new uses of traditional data as well as novel crowdsourced and online behavior databases. Finally, we present new research examining the temporal variation in efficacy of these forecasts with an eye towards understanding the market conditions in which an accurate fundamental forecast can be more or less profitable.
Algorithmic trading and Machine Learning by Michael Kearns, Professor of Comp...Quantopian
Traditional financial markets have undergone rapid technological change due to increased automation and the introduction of new exchanges and mechanisms. Such changes have brought with them challenging new problems in algorithmic trading, many of which invite a machine learning approach. In this talk, Michael will examine several algorithmic trading problems, focusing on their novel ML aspects, including limiting market impact, dealing with censored data, and incorporating risk considerations.
This presentation was part of QuantCon 2015 hosted by Quantopian. Visit us at: www.quantopian.com.
"Active Learning in Trading Algorithms" by David Fellah, Head of the EMEA Lin...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Institutional orders generally exceed the absorption capacity in the immediate order book and are frequently split horizontally over time and vertically over price. The task of splitting apart a meta-order is achieved through a sequence of market transactions performed by trading algorithms, causing market impact. Consequently a great deal of research is spent on understanding market impact and its role in algorithm design in order to reduce it.
In this presentation, we discuss an application of Deep Reinforcement Learning to minimise transaction costs across a diverse range of instruments. We first discuss high-frequency market impact and its role in optimal planning for single-position and portfolio trading. We then discuss examples of how machine learning is used in short-term forecasting to augment order placement decisions.
Finally, we discuss how the algorithm considers these effects jointly, how it optimizes a dynamic policy, and how it improves performance against surrogate hand-tuned algorithms.
"Quantitative Trading as a Mathematical Science" by Dr. Haksun Li, Founder an...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Quantitative trading is distinguishable from other trading methodologies like technical analysis and analysts’ opinions because it uniquely provides justifications to trading strategies using mathematical reasoning. Put differently, quantitative trading is a science that trading strategies are proven statistically profitable or even optimal under certain assumptions. There are properties about strategies that we can deduce before betting the first $1, such as P&L distribution and risks. There are exact explanations to the success and failure of strategies, such as choice of parameters. There are ways to iteratively improve strategies based on experiences of live trading, such as making more realistic assumptions. These are all made possible only in quantitative trading because we have assumptions, models and rigorous mathematical analysis.
Quantitative trading has proved itself to be a significant driver of mathematical innovations, especially in the areas of stochastic analysis and PDE-theory. For instances, we can compute the optimal timings to follow the market by solving a pair of coupled Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations; we can construct sparse mean reverting baskets by solving semi-definite optimization problems with cardinality constraints and can optimally trade these baskets by solving stochastic control problems; we can identify statistical arbitrage opportunities by analyzing the volatility process of a stochastic asset at different frequencies; we can compute the optimal placements of market and limit orders by solving combined singular and impulse control problems which leads to novel and difficult to solve quasi-variational inequalities.
"A Framework for Developing Trading Models Based on Machine Learning" by Kris...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Machine learning is improving facets of our lives as diverse as health screening, transportation and even our entertainment choices. It stands to reason that machine learning can also improve trading performance, however the practical application is fraught with pitfalls and obstacles that nullify the benefits and present a high barrier to entry. Building on background information and introductory material, Kris will propose a framework for efficient and robust experimentation with machine learning methods for algorithmic trading. The framework's objective is to arrive at parsimonious models whose positive past performance is unlikely to be due to chance. The framework is demonstrated via practical examples of various machine learning models for algorithmic trading.
A presentation at The 2015 Copenhagen Business School Symposium on High-Frequency Trading. Robert Almgren, President and Head of Research at Quantitative Brokers (New York)
This presentation demonstrates that how economic concepts and/or econometric techniques can be useful in financial decision making (i.e. trading) and that how EViews can effectively handle the whole process.
"Enhancing Statistical Significance of Backtests" by Dr. Ernest Chan, Managin...Quantopian
Insufficient historical data is a major hurdle in building a trading model free from data snooping bias. Dr. Chan's talk will discuss several techniques, some borrowed from machine learning, that can alleviate overfitting and enhance the statistical significance of a backtest.
"How to Run a Quantitative Trading Business in China with Python" by Xiaoyou ...Quantopian
From QuantCon 2017: Running a quantitative trading business in China used to be very difficult and require strong IT skills, however it's getting much easier nowadays, when traders with no professional IT training can also do all the tasks in quantitative trading using Python.
In this sharing session, Xiaoyou will share his experience in using Python for data collection, strategy development and automated trading. He will also introduce some related open source projects including TuShare, quantOS, vn.py and so on.
"The 6 Stages of a Quant Equity Workflow" by Dr. Jessica Stauth, Vice Preside...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
This talk will provide a deconstruction of the algorithm development process for a popular and deep area of the quantitative investment world: systematic cross-sectional equity investing, also known as statistical arbitrage or equity market neutral investing.
Dr. Jess Stauth will break this workflow into 6 distinct stages, each of which presents its own challenges and opportunities for differentiation to the algorithm developer. During this talk, she will give you an insider's look at how legions of quants at the biggest hedge funds in the world spend their days.
She will also briefly explore how innovations in the fintech space have the potential to reshape this workflow and throw open the doors wide open to a new global pool of talent.
Overview of Quantopian: where we are and where we are headed.
Quantopian provides this presentation to help people write trading algorithms - it is not intended to provide investment advice.
More specifically, the material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory or other services by Quantopian.
In addition, the content neither constitutes investment advice nor offers any opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or any specific investment. Quantopian makes no guarantees as to accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances.
Quantopian is Launching a Crowd-sourced Hedge Fundkelmstrom
Crowd-sourcing opens a fire hose of ideas.
Diversity of ideas will result in a diversified hedge fund portfolio.
Quantopian has unique access to tens of thousands of quants which allows for idea generation at an unprecedented scale.
Quantopian provides a platform for you to build, test, and execute trading algorithms. Live trading algorithms can become part of our crowd-sourced hedge fund where top quant talent is matched with outside investor capital.
https://www.quantopian.com/home
Beware of Low Frequency Data by Ernie Chan, Managing Member, QTS Capital Mana...Quantopian
It is commonly believed that low frequency strategies require only low frequency data for backtesting. We will show that using low frequency data can lead to dangerously inflated backtest results even for low frequency strategies. Examples will be drawn from a closed end fund strategy, a long-short stock strategy, and a futures strategy.
This presentation was part of the QuantCon 2015 Conference hosted by Quantopian. Visit us at: www.quantopian.com.
A Guided Tour of Machine Learning for Traders by Tucker Balch at QuantCon 2016Quantopian
You’ve probably heard about Machine Learning and you likely know it is of emerging importance for trading and investing. Unfortunately it is a deeply technical field and the complexity and jargon get in the way of broader use and understanding. There are literally hundreds of learning algorithms that each solve a slightly different problem. Which algorithms really matter for investing? In this presentation, Professor Balch will help declutter the ML jungle. He’ll introduce a few of the most important ML algorithms and show how they can be applied to the challenges of trading.
Combining the Best Stock Selection Factors by Patrick O'Shaughnessy at QuantC...Quantopian
Patrick will explore how to combine the value factor with other stock selection factors to build a superior stock selection strategy. He will discuss unique ways of using momentum, share buybacks, and quality factors to improve on a simple value screen. He will discuss portfolio concentration, rebalancing, and risk management. He will also explain why the best versions of these strategies are only possible for smaller firms and investors.
"Trading Strategies That Are Designed Not Fitted" by Robert Carver, Independe...Quantopian
Engineers design stuff. Why do Quants prefer to fit? In this talk, Robert will explain what designing a trading system actually involves, explore why designing might be better than fitting, and introduce some of the tools you could use. He will also take you through the design process for an example trading strategy.
Finally, he will discuss how we can have the best of both worlds: strategies that are well designed and also fitted to the data.
Statistics - The Missing Link Between Technical Analysis and Algorithmic Trad...Quantopian
Trading leveraged derivatives using only technical analysis or speculative analysis can lead to windfall losses for even the most disciplined trader and investor. Statistics are often an ignored area of work when it comes to derivatives trading. Our talk shall focus upon how volatility can be used for dynamically adjusting the stop losses. It will talk about how correlation is an essential method to diversify the class of derivatives being traded or hedged. It will focus on co-integration as a key method to distinguish a mean reverting time series to a non-mean reverting time series. It will touch upon other essential time series econometrics like OU process, VRT as well as statistical tools like PCA, ARCH, GARCH etc. which are essential for derivatives pricing and forecasting the volatility.
"Is Momentum Still Relevant for Today’s Markets?" by Anthony Ng, Senior LecturerQuantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Despite being ‘discovered’ over 20 years ago, there is still confusion on what a momentum strategy entails and people ‘invest in momentum’. There are two generally accepted definitions of momentum in academic literature. In the quantitative equity investment sphere, momentum is frequently referred to as across securities or assets (cross-sectional or relative) and typically traded in a long-short or hedged manner. In futures trading, momentum is often referred to the past return of the security (time-series) and normally traded in a directional fashion.
Following from the above, we conducted an analysis on the performance of a momentum strategy of different asset classes: equity, fixed income, futures, and currencies. The study showed that both types of momentum are prevalent and persistent across all asset classes. Furthermore, as the correlations between the two types of momentum strategies and amongst the asset classes are quite low, substantial diversification benefit can be derived by combining them.
MLX 2018 - Marcos López de Prado, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Comp...Mehdi Merai Ph.D.(c)
Presented by: Marcos López de Prado, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Computational Research Division
MLX FinTech Conference II, Toronto, May 2018.
More info at: https://www.machinelearningx.net
The QuantCon Keynote: "Counter Trend Trading – Threat or Complement to Trend ...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Over the past 30 years, trend following has been a remarkably successful futures trading strategy. Once a fringe trading style barely known outside of Chicago, it has grown into a 300 billion dollar global industry. It would be very difficult indeed to claim that trend following doesn’t work in the face of decades of empirical evidence otherwise. But trend following isn’t completely without problems.
It is well known that classic trend following models tend to lose money on a majority of trades. This is not necessarily an issue, since trend following is all about accepting a large number of small losses in exchange for a small number of large gains. As long as the net is positive, all is fine. That is the underlying idea of the strategy and it has historically worked very well.
However, if you dissect trend following models you can find weaknesses which could be exploited. This is what counter trend trading models are about. These counter trend models usually operate on a shorter time frame and with nearly opposite logic.
As counter trend models are gaining popularity in the systematic trading hedge fund field, a few questions arise. Are these models a threat to trend following? Can they be a complement to trend following? Can trend following be adapted to be less susceptible to the counter trend issue?
"Fundamental Forecasts: Methods and Timing" by Vinesh Jha, CEO of ExtractAlphaQuantopian
From QuantCon 2017:
Fundamental and quantitative stock selection research has long focused on creating accurate forecasts of company fundamentals such as earnings and revenues. In this talk we examine why fundamental forecasts are powerful and survey some classic methods for generating these forecasts. Next we explore some newer methodologies which can be effective in generating more accurate fundamental forecasts, including new uses of traditional data as well as novel crowdsourced and online behavior databases. Finally, we present new research examining the temporal variation in efficacy of these forecasts with an eye towards understanding the market conditions in which an accurate fundamental forecast can be more or less profitable.
Algorithmic trading and Machine Learning by Michael Kearns, Professor of Comp...Quantopian
Traditional financial markets have undergone rapid technological change due to increased automation and the introduction of new exchanges and mechanisms. Such changes have brought with them challenging new problems in algorithmic trading, many of which invite a machine learning approach. In this talk, Michael will examine several algorithmic trading problems, focusing on their novel ML aspects, including limiting market impact, dealing with censored data, and incorporating risk considerations.
This presentation was part of QuantCon 2015 hosted by Quantopian. Visit us at: www.quantopian.com.
"Active Learning in Trading Algorithms" by David Fellah, Head of the EMEA Lin...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Institutional orders generally exceed the absorption capacity in the immediate order book and are frequently split horizontally over time and vertically over price. The task of splitting apart a meta-order is achieved through a sequence of market transactions performed by trading algorithms, causing market impact. Consequently a great deal of research is spent on understanding market impact and its role in algorithm design in order to reduce it.
In this presentation, we discuss an application of Deep Reinforcement Learning to minimise transaction costs across a diverse range of instruments. We first discuss high-frequency market impact and its role in optimal planning for single-position and portfolio trading. We then discuss examples of how machine learning is used in short-term forecasting to augment order placement decisions.
Finally, we discuss how the algorithm considers these effects jointly, how it optimizes a dynamic policy, and how it improves performance against surrogate hand-tuned algorithms.
"Quantitative Trading as a Mathematical Science" by Dr. Haksun Li, Founder an...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Quantitative trading is distinguishable from other trading methodologies like technical analysis and analysts’ opinions because it uniquely provides justifications to trading strategies using mathematical reasoning. Put differently, quantitative trading is a science that trading strategies are proven statistically profitable or even optimal under certain assumptions. There are properties about strategies that we can deduce before betting the first $1, such as P&L distribution and risks. There are exact explanations to the success and failure of strategies, such as choice of parameters. There are ways to iteratively improve strategies based on experiences of live trading, such as making more realistic assumptions. These are all made possible only in quantitative trading because we have assumptions, models and rigorous mathematical analysis.
Quantitative trading has proved itself to be a significant driver of mathematical innovations, especially in the areas of stochastic analysis and PDE-theory. For instances, we can compute the optimal timings to follow the market by solving a pair of coupled Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations; we can construct sparse mean reverting baskets by solving semi-definite optimization problems with cardinality constraints and can optimally trade these baskets by solving stochastic control problems; we can identify statistical arbitrage opportunities by analyzing the volatility process of a stochastic asset at different frequencies; we can compute the optimal placements of market and limit orders by solving combined singular and impulse control problems which leads to novel and difficult to solve quasi-variational inequalities.
"A Framework for Developing Trading Models Based on Machine Learning" by Kris...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
Machine learning is improving facets of our lives as diverse as health screening, transportation and even our entertainment choices. It stands to reason that machine learning can also improve trading performance, however the practical application is fraught with pitfalls and obstacles that nullify the benefits and present a high barrier to entry. Building on background information and introductory material, Kris will propose a framework for efficient and robust experimentation with machine learning methods for algorithmic trading. The framework's objective is to arrive at parsimonious models whose positive past performance is unlikely to be due to chance. The framework is demonstrated via practical examples of various machine learning models for algorithmic trading.
A presentation at The 2015 Copenhagen Business School Symposium on High-Frequency Trading. Robert Almgren, President and Head of Research at Quantitative Brokers (New York)
This presentation demonstrates that how economic concepts and/or econometric techniques can be useful in financial decision making (i.e. trading) and that how EViews can effectively handle the whole process.
"Enhancing Statistical Significance of Backtests" by Dr. Ernest Chan, Managin...Quantopian
Insufficient historical data is a major hurdle in building a trading model free from data snooping bias. Dr. Chan's talk will discuss several techniques, some borrowed from machine learning, that can alleviate overfitting and enhance the statistical significance of a backtest.
"How to Run a Quantitative Trading Business in China with Python" by Xiaoyou ...Quantopian
From QuantCon 2017: Running a quantitative trading business in China used to be very difficult and require strong IT skills, however it's getting much easier nowadays, when traders with no professional IT training can also do all the tasks in quantitative trading using Python.
In this sharing session, Xiaoyou will share his experience in using Python for data collection, strategy development and automated trading. He will also introduce some related open source projects including TuShare, quantOS, vn.py and so on.
"The 6 Stages of a Quant Equity Workflow" by Dr. Jessica Stauth, Vice Preside...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
This talk will provide a deconstruction of the algorithm development process for a popular and deep area of the quantitative investment world: systematic cross-sectional equity investing, also known as statistical arbitrage or equity market neutral investing.
Dr. Jess Stauth will break this workflow into 6 distinct stages, each of which presents its own challenges and opportunities for differentiation to the algorithm developer. During this talk, she will give you an insider's look at how legions of quants at the biggest hedge funds in the world spend their days.
She will also briefly explore how innovations in the fintech space have the potential to reshape this workflow and throw open the doors wide open to a new global pool of talent.
Overview of Quantopian: where we are and where we are headed.
Quantopian provides this presentation to help people write trading algorithms - it is not intended to provide investment advice.
More specifically, the material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory or other services by Quantopian.
In addition, the content neither constitutes investment advice nor offers any opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or any specific investment. Quantopian makes no guarantees as to accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances.
Quantopian is Launching a Crowd-sourced Hedge Fundkelmstrom
Crowd-sourcing opens a fire hose of ideas.
Diversity of ideas will result in a diversified hedge fund portfolio.
Quantopian has unique access to tens of thousands of quants which allows for idea generation at an unprecedented scale.
Quantopian provides a platform for you to build, test, and execute trading algorithms. Live trading algorithms can become part of our crowd-sourced hedge fund where top quant talent is matched with outside investor capital.
https://www.quantopian.com/home
PwC's recently released Responsible AI Diagnostic surveyed around 250 senior business executives from May to June 2019. The survey says that 84% of CEOs agree that AI-based decisions need to be explainable in order to be trusted. In the past few years, Deep learning has shown remarkable results in various applications, which makes it one of the first choices for many AI use cases. However, deep learning models are hard to explain, and since the majority of CEOs expect AI solutions to be explainable, deep learning has a serious challenge. Daniel Kahneman, in his book thinking fast and slow, presented two different systems the human brain uses to form thoughts and decisions: System 1: fast, intuitive and hard to explain System 2: slow, conscious and easy to explain In this talk I will present: A) PwC Responsible AI Survey B) A proposed deep learning framework that mimics the two systems of thinking C) The recent advances in the neural symbolic learning field.
Building a High Value Patent Portfolio: Where Strength Meets QualityErik Oliver
Join Gene Quinn, patent attorney and founder of IPWatchdog.com and Erik Reeves, Founder of AcclaimIP and CTO of Anaqua, and Kent Richardson for a free webinar discussion on building a portfolio versus buying patents, identifying gaps in your patent coverage, and unlocking the secrets of your own patent portfolio to identify needs.
Testing Hyper-Complex Systems: What Can We Know? What Can We Claim?TechWell
Throughout history, people have built systems of dramatically increasing complexity. In simpler systems, defects at the micro level are mitigated by the macro level structure. In complex systems, failures at the micro level cannot be compensated for at a higher level, often with catastrophic results. Lee Copeland says that we are building hyper-complex computer systems—so complex that faults can create totally unpredictable behaviors. For example, systems based on the service-oriented architecture (SOA) model can be dynamically composed of reusable services of unknown quality, created by multiple organizations, and communicating through many technologies across the unpredictable Internet. Lee explains that claims about quality require knowledge of test “coverage,” which is an unknowable quantity in hyper-complex systems. Join Lee for a look at your testing future as he describes new approaches needed to measure test coverage in these hyper-complex systems and lead your organization to better quality—despite the challenges.
Financial technology, or FinTech, has been using technology to disrupt the financial services, payments, and banking industries. Fintech investment are on the rise - Q4 of 2014 was the busiest quarter of the last 5 years in fintech. $3.1 billion was invested into the fintech sector in Q4 of 2014.
Chicago is home to financial technology powerhouses and startups alike. On April 8th, we'll hear from Chicago companies using cloud technology to disrupt, react and innovate.
CloudCamp features short lightning talks, an "unpanel" with audience participation and questions, and small breakout clusters around beers and pizza.
Theme: "FinTech"
These full slides from the April 8th event include:
"Selling to the Sell-Side" - Sam Perl, Founding Partner at Fundology
"Cloud Culture Shock in Financial Services" - Susan Emery, Director of Product Management at Viewpointe @semery_vp
"Put away the credit card, a look at alternative payment methods" - John Downey, Security Lead at Braintree @jtdowney
"Micro-services and how they apply to FinTech" - Eero Pikat, President at BarChart @eeropikat
"What Financial Cloud Should Be" - Patrick Kerpan, CEO at Cohesive Networks @pjktech
Alternative Finance and Digital Finance by using fintech are changing the whole finance sector. It is not only about technology, but opportunities and needs emerge to create totally new business models and instruments. Download the document at http://group.growvc.com/download-hybrid-digital-finance-whitepaper.html.
ORX Risk Innovation and introducing iDP (Innovation Data Platform).pdfMarkCooke38
Introducing iDP - A next generation platform for ORX to launch high value risk applications.
Standing for Innovation Data Platform, iDP is a first-of-a-kind digital platform on which ORX and other third parties can launch a new generation of risk management and risk data visualization applications. iDP brings these risk applications and your data together into one secure space. All apps on iDP are pre-validated and accredited, significantly reducing implementation time and cost. They all use a consistent data format, making it possible to ultimately create your own tailored, modular and integrated risk management ecosystem – the overall outcome being more powerful risk insights at lower cost.
iDP has been built to ease the effort of securely conforming data for use across various applications and services.
Security is at the heart of iDP - built on industrial AWS componentry, secure by design, it delivers extra layers of trust to your data and risk application management. Our layered security approach is built upon industry grade infrastructure, industry standard certification and with the institution in charge of its user-controlled Locked Box.
IDP is neutral. It leaves the specifics of what apps are added and what they offer up to the Institutional users and the app producers. ORX will be a producer, developing apps for iDP that our members want, leveraging a growing library of industrial-grade tools, our ORX Industry data standards and exploiting the advantages of operating on modern infrastructure of on-demand cloud technology.
The first of ORX’s applications for iDP – launching in Q4 2022 – is a risk control app, which shows visually where individual business line control systems have gaps compared to the ORX Industry study of over 60 of the World's leading Banks & Insurers (read more on page 6). In addition to ORX applications, iDP also provides the opportunity to deploy other apps from 3rd party risk and reg tech producers in a safe and consistent environment.
We have the vision for iDP to unlock new opportunities for ORX and its members to advance and innovate risk management and for the industry as a whole. These opportunities are unlocked as we build out the ‘Risk as a Service’ Marketplace, a marketplace to discover and deploy accredited risk management solutions.
With iDP, you are in control
• You manage security and access to the Locked Box, and stored data is encrypted using user-controlled keys
• You manage what data you store and what apps you use
• You manage what data sharing and benchmarking you do with other users of iDP
For more information about iDP, contact Mark Cooke mark.cooke@orx.org
Acceptance, accessible, actionable and auditableAlban Gérôme
Many a stakeholder presented with actionable insight have expressed doubts about data quality, its relevance or potential impact. In other cases, the stakeholders will want a data analyst who also commands knowledge of the business or a similar unicorn. The web analytics practitioners would rise to the challenge, and the stakeholders will then want their own Hans Rosling and his dazzling data visualisation and raconteur sills. Your stakeholders are silently experiencing the data transformation like a conservatorship. How can you help them perceive your efforts like a temporary guardianship from which they will emerge as ready to face your data-driven competitors?
Selling 0days to governments and offensive security companiesMaor Shwartz
Selling 0-days is a fascinating process that not a lot of people are familiar with. This talk will discuss a vulnerability brokerage company called Q-recon and provide a glimpse of how this market works. In the presentation the following questions will be answered from three different angles (researcher/broker/client):
Who (researcher profile) is selling 0-days to governments / offensive security companies?
What is the process of selling 0-days?
How to sell 0-days?
At the end of the presentation, I will give a few tips for researchers that want to sell 0-days to offensive security companies/governments.
Risking all you have, for what you can’t leave behind by Adam Cooke, Yancoal ...AVEVA Group plc
Adam Cooke, Yancoal Southey Project, discusses his experiences about Digital Asset ownership approach and the development of the Yancoal Southey project execution strategy at the AVEVA World Summit 2016, New Orleans.
The Yancoal Southey Project is a $4B greenfield potash solution mine project located in Saskatchewan, Canada.
Adam outlines the 5 Key Lessons to improve work efficiency and safely by having ease of access to your digital assets.
As a result, Adam built a hierarchy using AVEVA Integrated Engineering and Design (IE&D) that can be applied successfully in your operations no matter where you are in the plants practical life. Click here to find out more how AVEVA can transform your business >> www.aveva.com
Stauth common pitfalls_stock_market_modeling_pqtc_fall2018Quantopian
Data Modeling the Stock Market Today - Common Pitfalls to Avoid
The lure of creating models to predict the stock market has drawn talent from fields beyond finance and economics, reaching into disciplines such as physics, computational chemistry, applied mathematics, electrical engineering and perhaps most recently statistics and what we now refer to as data science. The attraction is clear - the stock market (and the economy/internet at large) throws off massive and ever increasing reams of data from garden variety time-series to complex structured data sets like quarterly financials, to unstructured data sets like conference call transcripts, news articles and of course — tweets! While all this data holds promise - it also holds traps and blind alleys that can be deceptively tricky to avoid. In this session we’ll review some of the common (but not easy!) pitfalls to avoid in creating models for predicting stock returns; overfitting & exploding model complexity, non-stationary processes, time-travel illusions, under-estimation of real-world costs, and as many more as we have time to cover.
"The Hunt For Alpha Among Alternative Data Sources" by Dr. Michael Halls-Moor...Quantopian
Presented at QuantCon Singapore 2016, Quantopian's quantitative finance and algorithmic trading conference, November 11th.
The lifeblood of many quantitative trading strategies is a mix of high-quality, high-frequency asset pricing data and detailed information on company fundamentals. Such data is now available quite readily at low cost from multiple vendors. In addition it is more straightforward than ever to "wrangle" the data into the necessary formats for rapid quant research.
Quantitative hedge funds, family offices, proprietary trading houses and even some retail quants are realising that many of the traditional sources of alpha are decaying. In essence, the search for alpha must be continued elsewhere.
So-called "alternative" data sources are a relatively recent solution to the problem of alpha decay. Satellite imagery, email receipts, social media, Internet-of-Things sensors, weather patterns and earnings calls can all provide insights that lead to novel trading ideas.
Along with these new sources of data are methods to quantify and analyse it, including statistical machine learning, computer vision, sentiment analysis and deep neural networks.
In this talk we will consider these new data sets and discuss how we can apply freely-available data science tools to help find new alpha among them.
Cloud Security Summit - InfoSec World 2014Bill Burns
Cloud Security trends, practical tips and lessons learned. Implementing holistic security controls to protect business data, Trends that will affect data security, and advice to security startups and companies evaluating them.
Similar to Being open (source) in the traditionally secretive field of quant finance. (20)
"Three Dimensional Time: Working with Alternative Data" by Kathryn Glowinski,...Quantopian
From QuantCon 2017: Lookahead bias and stale data when used in an algorithm are generally categorized as "incorrect data". In fact, the issue does not lie with the data itself, but instead is an issue of perspective. This talk will examine how data is typically viewed through the lens of time, and why, on the whole, that approach is wrong.
At Quantopian, we've tried several ways of handling data with regards to time, and we'll talk about lessons learned along the way. We'll also discuss what multidimensionality means for financial data specifically, and how we can apply this to get better results in backtesting.
Additionally, we'll touch on how to apply multidimensionality to more general data, and why it's important for anyone working with applied data to take this approach.
"Alpha from Alternative Data" by Emmett Kilduff, Founder and CEO of Eagle AlphaQuantopian
From QuantCon 2017: At J.P. Morgan's annual quantitative conference 93% of investors said alternative data will change the investment landscape.
In this presentation, Emmett will discuss the rapidly increasing adoption of alternative data, give a detailed overview of the 24 different types of alternative data, outline the applications of alternative data for quantitative funds, discuss interesting datasets that are available (including Asian datasets) and present case studies that evidence value in alternative datasets.
"Supply Chain Earnings Diffusion" by Josh Holcroft, Head of Quantitative Rese...Quantopian
Supply chains and network effects are becoming increasingly important and increasingly transparent in the global economy. However, conventional techniques are poorly equipped to handle relational data, and new techniques are required to decode the meaning of supply chain effects. We explore a novel technique for modelling and forecasting the diffusion of earnings revisions, known as a diffusion graph kernel support vector machine.
“Real Time Machine Learning Architecture and Sentiment Analysis Applied to Fi...Quantopian
From QuantCon Singapore 2017: The vast proliferation of data related to the financial industry introduces both new opportunities and challenges to quantitative investors. These challenges are often due to the nature of big data and include: volume, variety, and velocity.
In this talk, Dr. Cheng will take the audience on a tour of the “big-data production line” in InfoTrie and show how the financial news collected from various and customizable sources are transformed into quantitative signals in a real-time manner. The talk will touch on various kind of topics like sentiment analysis, entity detection, topic classification, and big-data tools.
“Market Insights Through the Lens of a Risk Model” by Olivier d'Assier, Head ...Quantopian
From QuantCon Singapore 2017: In this presentation, Olivier d’Assier, Managing Director of APAC Applied Research, will discuss the major drivers of the change in risk year-to-date and how the risk environment is affecting investor’s portfolios. This talk will look at global markets with a focus on the Asian region and how it compares to others with regards to its risk footprint.
"Maximize Alpha with Systematic Factor Testing" by Cheng Peng, Software Engin...Quantopian
Factor modeling and style premia are historically well documented and extensively researched in generating abnormal returns. Despite the large amount of research around factors, there is less clarity around effectively capturing and extracting this alpha from a given universe. In this presentation, Cheng will demonstrate different techniques for combining multiple factors, and the rationale behind maximizing alpha while maintaining scalability.
"Deep Reinforcement Learning for Optimal Order Placement in a Limit Order Boo...Quantopian
From QuantCon 2017: Financial trading is essentially a search problem. The buy-side agent needs to find a counterpart sell-side agent willing to trade the financial asset at the set quantity and price.
Ilija will present a deep reinforcement learning algorithm for optimizing the execution of limit-order actions to find an optimal order placement. The reinforcement learning agent utilizes historical limit-order data to learn an optimal compromise between fast order completion but with higher costs and slow, riskier order completion but with lower costs.
The talk will continue with the challenges of applying reinforcement learning to optimal trading and their potential solutions. Finally, Ilija will share the system architecture and discuss future work.
"Building Diversified Portfolios that Outperform Out-of-Sample" by Dr. Marcos...Quantopian
Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) portfolios address three major concerns of quadratic optimizers in general and Markowitz’s CLA in particular: Instability, concentration and underperformance. HRP applies modern mathematics (graph theory and machine learning techniques) to build a diversified portfolio based on the information contained in the covariance matrix. However, unlike quadratic optimizers, HRP does not require the invertibility of the covariance matrix. In fact, HRP can compute a portfolio on an ill-degenerated or even a singular covariance matrix, an impossible feat for quadratic optimizers. Monte Carlo experiments show that HRP delivers lower out-of-sample variance than CLA, even though minimum-variance is CLA’s optimization objective. HRP also produces less risky portfolios out-of-sample compared to traditional risk parity methods.
Read the corresponding white paper here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2713516
"From Insufficient Economic data to Economic Big Data – How Trade Data is red...Quantopian
Over the last 10 years, the world of economics has been playing a catching up game and many economists have been struggling to explain their theories. The world has adopted technology in nearly every aspect of life, from phones to cars; however, good, reliable and quality data in economics is still elusive.
There is over reliance on macroeconomic principles in comparison to the quality of data available. Macro-economic figures move markets, only to get revised one, two or three times in the following months. Some fields of economic study are exceptions, such as analysing trade data. Trade data, with the support of technology, has become readily available and can now be analysed in depth, providing actual numbers indicating the health and state of economies.
Trade data, which is export and import information of all the goods and services from one country to another, can be seen as an inseparable marker of real economic activity. It can be used to predict various market indicators exhibiting high correlations, from currencies to commodities to equities to macroeconomic data, with varying degree of certainties. Trade data, at an in-depth level, acts like a compilation of millions of real life mathematical functions.
This presentation explores this new economic area of trade data as a quantitative tool, its intense big data analysis and its applications in trading markets.
"Deep Q-Learning for Trading" by Dr. Tucker Balch, Professor of Interactive C...Quantopian
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been around for a long time, but it has not attracted much attention over the last decade. Until, that is, a group of Google researchers showed how RL can be used to train a computer to play video games at far above human capabilities.
Besides video games, the RL problem is also well aligned to solve trading problems as well (e.g., work by Dr. Michael Kearns). In this talk, Tucker will provide a gentle introduction to Q-Learning, one of the leading RL methods.
He will also show how Q-Learning can be integrated with artificial neural network learners and how such a system can be used to learn and execute a trading strategy. This is joint work with David Byrd at Georgia Tech.
"Quantum Hierarchical Risk Parity - A Quantum-Inspired Approach to Portfolio ...Quantopian
Maxwell will present the methodologies and results behind the algorithm that has been developed by 1QBit, named Quantum Hierarchical Risk Parity, or QHRP.
This is an extension of the work done by Marcos Lopez de Prado on
Hierarchical Risk Parity in his paper "Building Diversified Portfolios that Outperform Out-of-Sample."
QHRP tackles the problem of minimizing the risk of a portfolio of assets using a quantum-inspired approach. Although the ideas surrounding this go back to Markowitz’s mean-variance portfolio optimization of 1952’s Portfolio Selection, we have applied recent quantum-ready machine learning tools to the problem to demonstrate strong performance in terms of a variety of risk measures and lower susceptibility to inaccuracies in the input data.
The quantum-ready approach to portfolio optimization is based on
an optimization problem that can be solved using a quantum annealer. The algorithm utilizes a hierarchical clustering tree that is based on the covariance matrix of the asset returns. The results of real market data used to benchmark this approach against other common portfolio optimization methods will be shared in this presentation.
View the White Paper: https://bit.ly/2k5xTxW.
"Snake Oil, Swamp Land, and Factor-Based Investing" by Gary Antonacci, author...Quantopian
BlackRock forecasts smart beta investing oriented toward size, value, quality, momentum, and low volatility to reach $1 trillion by 2020 and $2.4 trillion by 2025. Gary’s talk will show that this growth may not be justified due to these factors' lack of robustness, consistency, persistence, intuitiveness, and investability. Gary will also show that the success attributed to these factors would be better directed toward macro momentum and the short interest ratio.
"Bayesian Deep Learning: Dealing with Uncertainty and Non-Stationarity" by Dr...Quantopian
Deep Learning continues to build out its dominance over other machine learning approaches on several challenging tasks including image, hand-writing, and speech recognition, image synthesis, as well as playing board and computer games exceeding human expert abilities.
This has generated a lot of interest in the quant finance community to try and mirror Deep Learning's success in the domain of algorithmic trading. Unfortunately, algorithmic trading poses a unique set of challenges. Specifically, the risk (i.e. uncertainty) of certain trading decisions as well as the fact that market behavior changes over time (i.e. non-stationarity) is not handled well by deep learning.
In this talk, I will show how we can embed Deep Learning in the Probabilistic Programming framework PyMC3 and elegantly solve these issues. Expressing neural networks as a Bayesian model naturally instills uncertainty in its predictions. This talk is focused on practitioners and will be introductory and hands-on with many code examples.
"On the Bayesian Interpretation of Black–Litterman" by Dr. Gordon Ritter, Sen...Quantopian
We will present the most general model of the type considered by Black and Litterman (1991) after fully clarifying the duality between Black–Litterman optimization and Bayesian regression.
Our generalization is itself a special case of a Bayesian network or graphical model. As an example, we will work out in full detail the treatment of views on factor risk premia in the context of APT.
We will also consider a more speculative example in which the portfolio manager specifies a view on realized volatility by trading a variance swap.
"Correlated Volatility Shocks" by Dr. Xiao Qiao, Researcher at SummerHaven In...Quantopian
Commonality in idiosyncratic volatility cannot be completely explained by time-varying volatility. After removing the effects of time-varying volatility, idiosyncratic volatility innovations are still positively correlated. This result suggests correlated volatility shocks contribute to the comovement in idiosyncratic volatility.
Motivated by this fact, we propose the Dynamic Factor Correlation (DFC) model, which fits the data well and captures the cross-sectional correlations in idiosyncratic volatility innovations. We decompose the common factor in idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) of Herskovic et al. (2016) into the volatility innovation factor (VIN) and time-varying volatility factor (TVV). Whereas VIN is associated with strong variation in average returns, TVV is only weakly priced in the cross section
A strategy that takes a long position in the portfolio with the lowest VIN and TVV betas, and a short position in the portfolio with the highest VIN and TVV betas earns average returns of 8.0% per year.
"Identifying Credibility of News" by Dr. Sameena Shah, Director of Research f...Quantopian
News moves markets. In recent history we have seen questionable and fake news. Sameena and her team created Reuters News Tracer that is able to detect news events and provide its credibility. Sameena will present some of the technology that empowers Reuters News Tracer.
First Steps with Globus Compute Multi-User EndpointsGlobus
In this presentation we will share our experiences around getting started with the Globus Compute multi-user endpoint. Working with the Pharmacology group at the University of Auckland, we have previously written an application using Globus Compute that can offload computationally expensive steps in the researcher's workflows, which they wish to manage from their familiar Windows environments, onto the NeSI (New Zealand eScience Infrastructure) cluster. Some of the challenges we have encountered were that each researcher had to set up and manage their own single-user globus compute endpoint and that the workloads had varying resource requirements (CPUs, memory and wall time) between different runs. We hope that the multi-user endpoint will help to address these challenges and share an update on our progress here.
Developing Distributed High-performance Computing Capabilities of an Open Sci...Globus
COVID-19 had an unprecedented impact on scientific collaboration. The pandemic and its broad response from the scientific community has forged new relationships among public health practitioners, mathematical modelers, and scientific computing specialists, while revealing critical gaps in exploiting advanced computing systems to support urgent decision making. Informed by our team’s work in applying high-performance computing in support of public health decision makers during the COVID-19 pandemic, we present how Globus technologies are enabling the development of an open science platform for robust epidemic analysis, with the goal of collaborative, secure, distributed, on-demand, and fast time-to-solution analyses to support public health.
Paketo Buildpacks : la meilleure façon de construire des images OCI? DevopsDa...Anthony Dahanne
Les Buildpacks existent depuis plus de 10 ans ! D’abord, ils étaient utilisés pour détecter et construire une application avant de la déployer sur certains PaaS. Ensuite, nous avons pu créer des images Docker (OCI) avec leur dernière génération, les Cloud Native Buildpacks (CNCF en incubation). Sont-ils une bonne alternative au Dockerfile ? Que sont les buildpacks Paketo ? Quelles communautés les soutiennent et comment ?
Venez le découvrir lors de cette session ignite
Your Digital Assistant.
Making complex approach simple. Straightforward process saves time. No more waiting to connect with people that matter to you. Safety first is not a cliché - Securely protect information in cloud storage to prevent any third party from accessing data.
Would you rather make your visitors feel burdened by making them wait? Or choose VizMan for a stress-free experience? VizMan is an automated visitor management system that works for any industries not limited to factories, societies, government institutes, and warehouses. A new age contactless way of logging information of visitors, employees, packages, and vehicles. VizMan is a digital logbook so it deters unnecessary use of paper or space since there is no requirement of bundles of registers that is left to collect dust in a corner of a room. Visitor’s essential details, helps in scheduling meetings for visitors and employees, and assists in supervising the attendance of the employees. With VizMan, visitors don’t need to wait for hours in long queues. VizMan handles visitors with the value they deserve because we know time is important to you.
Feasible Features
One Subscription, Four Modules – Admin, Employee, Receptionist, and Gatekeeper ensures confidentiality and prevents data from being manipulated
User Friendly – can be easily used on Android, iOS, and Web Interface
Multiple Accessibility – Log in through any device from any place at any time
One app for all industries – a Visitor Management System that works for any organisation.
Stress-free Sign-up
Visitor is registered and checked-in by the Receptionist
Host gets a notification, where they opt to Approve the meeting
Host notifies the Receptionist of the end of the meeting
Visitor is checked-out by the Receptionist
Host enters notes and remarks of the meeting
Customizable Components
Scheduling Meetings – Host can invite visitors for meetings and also approve, reject and reschedule meetings
Single/Bulk invites – Invitations can be sent individually to a visitor or collectively to many visitors
VIP Visitors – Additional security of data for VIP visitors to avoid misuse of information
Courier Management – Keeps a check on deliveries like commodities being delivered in and out of establishments
Alerts & Notifications – Get notified on SMS, email, and application
Parking Management – Manage availability of parking space
Individual log-in – Every user has their own log-in id
Visitor/Meeting Analytics – Evaluate notes and remarks of the meeting stored in the system
Visitor Management System is a secure and user friendly database manager that records, filters, tracks the visitors to your organization.
"Secure Your Premises with VizMan (VMS) – Get It Now"
TROUBLESHOOTING 9 TYPES OF OUTOFMEMORYERRORTier1 app
Even though at surface level ‘java.lang.OutOfMemoryError’ appears as one single error; underlyingly there are 9 types of OutOfMemoryError. Each type of OutOfMemoryError has different causes, diagnosis approaches and solutions. This session equips you with the knowledge, tools, and techniques needed to troubleshoot and conquer OutOfMemoryError in all its forms, ensuring smoother, more efficient Java applications.
Software Engineering, Software Consulting, Tech Lead.
Spring Boot, Spring Cloud, Spring Core, Spring JDBC, Spring Security,
Spring Transaction, Spring MVC,
Log4j, REST/SOAP WEB-SERVICES.
Designing for Privacy in Amazon Web ServicesKrzysztofKkol1
Data privacy is one of the most critical issues that businesses face. This presentation shares insights on the principles and best practices for ensuring the resilience and security of your workload.
Drawing on a real-life project from the HR industry, the various challenges will be demonstrated: data protection, self-healing, business continuity, security, and transparency of data processing. This systematized approach allowed to create a secure AWS cloud infrastructure that not only met strict compliance rules but also exceeded the client's expectations.
Exploring Innovations in Data Repository Solutions - Insights from the U.S. G...Globus
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has made substantial investments in meeting evolving scientific, technical, and policy driven demands on storing, managing, and delivering data. As these demands continue to grow in complexity and scale, the USGS must continue to explore innovative solutions to improve its management, curation, sharing, delivering, and preservation approaches for large-scale research data. Supporting these needs, the USGS has partnered with the University of Chicago-Globus to research and develop advanced repository components and workflows leveraging its current investment in Globus. The primary outcome of this partnership includes the development of a prototype enterprise repository, driven by USGS Data Release requirements, through exploration and implementation of the entire suite of the Globus platform offerings, including Globus Flow, Globus Auth, Globus Transfer, and Globus Search. This presentation will provide insights into this research partnership, introduce the unique requirements and challenges being addressed and provide relevant project progress.
How Does XfilesPro Ensure Security While Sharing Documents in Salesforce?XfilesPro
Worried about document security while sharing them in Salesforce? Fret no more! Here are the top-notch security standards XfilesPro upholds to ensure strong security for your Salesforce documents while sharing with internal or external people.
To learn more, read the blog: https://www.xfilespro.com/how-does-xfilespro-make-document-sharing-secure-and-seamless-in-salesforce/
Multiple Your Crypto Portfolio with the Innovative Features of Advanced Crypt...Hivelance Technology
Cryptocurrency trading bots are computer programs designed to automate buying, selling, and managing cryptocurrency transactions. These bots utilize advanced algorithms and machine learning techniques to analyze market data, identify trading opportunities, and execute trades on behalf of their users. By automating the decision-making process, crypto trading bots can react to market changes faster than human traders
Hivelance, a leading provider of cryptocurrency trading bot development services, stands out as the premier choice for crypto traders and developers. Hivelance boasts a team of seasoned cryptocurrency experts and software engineers who deeply understand the crypto market and the latest trends in automated trading, Hivelance leverages the latest technologies and tools in the industry, including advanced AI and machine learning algorithms, to create highly efficient and adaptable crypto trading bots
Innovating Inference - Remote Triggering of Large Language Models on HPC Clus...Globus
Large Language Models (LLMs) are currently the center of attention in the tech world, particularly for their potential to advance research. In this presentation, we'll explore a straightforward and effective method for quickly initiating inference runs on supercomputers using the vLLM tool with Globus Compute, specifically on the Polaris system at ALCF. We'll begin by briefly discussing the popularity and applications of LLMs in various fields. Following this, we will introduce the vLLM tool, and explain how it integrates with Globus Compute to efficiently manage LLM operations on Polaris. Attendees will learn the practical aspects of setting up and remotely triggering LLMs from local machines, focusing on ease of use and efficiency. This talk is ideal for researchers and practitioners looking to leverage the power of LLMs in their work, offering a clear guide to harnessing supercomputing resources for quick and effective LLM inference.
Enhancing Research Orchestration Capabilities at ORNL.pdfGlobus
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Being open (source) in the traditionally secretive field of quant finance.
1. A beginner’s guide to being open
(source) in the traditionally secretive
field of quantitative finance.
PyData NYC October 2018
Jess Stauth, PhD
Portfolio Management and Research , Quantopian
2. Disclaimer
Quantopian provides this presentation to help people write trading algorithms -
it is not intended to provide investment advice. More specifically, the material is
provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to
sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security
or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory or
other services by Quantopian. In addition, the content neither constitutes
investment advice nor offers any opinion with respect to the suitability of any
security or any specific investment. Quantopian makes no guarantees as to
accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are
subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons,
including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances.
3. Quants and open source – let’s start with a scary
story.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2013/09/michael-lewis-goldman-sachs-programmer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aleynikov
5. What followed was a decade of legal battle…
• Aleynikov was convicted in 2010 of violating the Economic Espionage Act and
the Interstate Transportation of Stolen Property Act.
• In 2012, the U.S. Court of Appeals in New York reversed the conviction.
• Aleynikov was rearrested in August 2012 on state charges.
• In 2015, he was convicted of one count of unlawfully using secret scientific
material, but the judge threw out the verdict and acquitted him.
• The District attorney’s office appealed and the conviction was reinstated by an
intermediate appellate court.
• In May of 2018 the appeals court upheld the conviction but declined to seek
additional jail time. All told Aleynikov served one year in prison.
8. Can open-source be a two-way street, even in
traditionally secretive quant finance land?
Short answer: YES!
Longer answer: Yes, but…
• Effort and some expertise are required to separate source code that is truly
proprietary from that which is effectively commoditized.
• Some companies just don’t see the benefits as large enough to outweigh the costs
and risks.
• The first real example of this in the quant finance space of course was Wes’ open
sourcing of pandas while at AQR, built on Numpy/Travis’ work!
9. Costs and risks – both real and perceived
• Costs:
• Engaging users on mailing lists
• Reviewing pull requests
• Making proper releases
• Documentation
• Navigating interdependencies between open and closed source
• Risks:
• May fail to get engagement if response times are slow
• IP leakage, if you misjudge the line between commodity and proprietary code
• Perception of IP leakage, non-technical stakeholders need to trust that what is
open sourced is not a ‘trade secret’
• Embarrassment “What if everyone thinks my code is crap!?!”
10. Why it’s worth it to be open, and not just with
code.
• Transparency builds trustful relationships
that extend far beyond the walls of your
company headquarters.
• Robustness scales with use.
• Linus’ Law – Given enough eyes, all bugs are
shallow.
• Talent is globally distributed.
• Some of our best hires have come from OSS
community.
• Our asset management business model relies
on contributions from the community in the
form of (closed source) algorithms.
• Life comes at you fast
h/t Thomas Wiecki’s open source talk
11. Ok so it’s worth it, but there remain costs and
risks – so how does this all come together?
12. The modern quant finance workflow – a mosaic of
open and closed source components
Research
• Ingest both publicly available data such as company financial statements and proprietary data sources
• Open source tools (e.g. Jupyter, Pandas, Numpy, SciPy, Alphalens, Qgrid, Qdb)
• Product is proprietary signals/factors
Back testing
• Open source event simulation tools (e.g. Zipline)
• May exploit vendor models/tools for cost modeling.
• Product is a proprietary alpha model (or trading algo)
Production
• Vendor tools for risk management and portfolio construction (e.g. Axioma, Barra, Northfield), or
Quantopian’s free Risk Model
• Product is a *very* proprietary trade list and possibly an execution strategy
13. Research
Back testing
Production
Risk Model
Individual Quant
Developer / Researcher
Proprietary signals, factors,
insights from data
3rd party vendors
• Factset
• Estimize
• FRED
• ITG Market Impact Model
• Axioma
• Northfield
• Barra
• Executing Brokers
Proprietary logic combining
individual factors into a
predictive model or algo
Proprietary execution strategy
if HFT, else rebalance
frequency choice.
Same mosaic, fewer words…
14. Some (more) Open source projects we maintain
• qdb - A debugger for python that allows users to debug code executing on remote machine.
• empyrical - A python library for computing common financial risk and performance metrics. Used by
zipline and pyfolio.
• warp_prism
• pgcontents
• DockORM
• coal-mine
• PenguinDome
• trading-calendars
• serializable-traitlets
15. We have committers or made significant contributions to:
• jupyter
• PyMC3
• blaze/odo/datashape
Smaller contributions to:
• CPython
• Airflow
• pandas
16. Acknowledgement to our amazing OSS
contributors:
Q Current
Jean Bredeche
Andrew Daniels
John Fawcett
Rich Frank
Kathryn Glowinski
Gus Gordon
Eddie Hebert
George Ho
Joe Jevnik
Jonathan Kamens
Abhijeet Kalyan
Samantha Klonaris
Max Margenot
David Michalowicsz
Vikram Narayan
Jacob Nazarenko
Ernesto Perez
Scott Sanderson
Adrian Seybolt
Tim Shawver
Paul Sutherland
Freddie Vargus
Thomas Wiecki
Rene Zhang
Q Alums
Andrew Campbell
James Christopher
Stewart Douglas
James Kirk
Andrew Liang
Ana Ruelas
Maya Tydykov
… and counting!
17. Contribute $ as well
as code!
https://numfocus.org/blog/quantopian-commits-to-fund-pandas-as-a-
new-numfocus-corporate-partner
18. Thank you and Happy Halloween!
Questions?
Email: jess at quantopian dot com @jstauth
19. Zipline is a Python library for algorithmic backtesting and trading. Zipline is the backtesting
and live-trading engine powering Quantopian – a free, community-centered, hosted
platform for researching quantitative trading strategies. The best strategies are eligible for
performance-based royalty licenses.
20. Pyfolio is a Python library for performance and risk analysis of financial portfolios. It works
well with the Zipline open source backtesting library. At the core of pyfolio is a tearsheet
consisting of individual plots that provide a comprehensive overview of the performance of
a trading algorithm.
21. Alphalens is a Python library for performance analysis of predictive (alpha) stock factors.
Alphalens is compatible with the Zipline open source backtesting library,
and Pyfolio which provides performance and risk analysis of financial portfolios.
22. qgrid - An interactive grid for sorting, filtering, and editing DataFrames in Jupyter
notebooks
Editor's Notes
Our story starts almost a decade ago, on July 3, 2009 in the Newark International airport.
Elite Programmer Serge Aleynikov steps off a flight from Chicago (where he has just accepted a new job at an HFT firm) and is greeted on the jetway by 3 men in dark suits.
- The men are FBI agents.
- Serge is handcuffed and escorted off the jetway and into a waiting towncar.
- Only later does he learn what he is charged with, stealing computer code owned by his former employer ... Goldman Sachs.
- Serge’s story became an inspiration for Michael Lewis’ vanity fair article on the topic and for the best-selling book Flash Boys.
Serge’s story is hardly the only scary tale of programmers being accused of viewing or stealing “secret code worth millions of dollars”.
A quick google search turned up half a dozen hits, not all of which have so clear of a connection to open source – nonetheless – these stories highlight the high stakes of determining what is proprietary software in the quant trading world.