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Launching a Crowd-sourced
Hedge fund
Jess Stauth VP, Quant Strategy
Justin Lent Director, Fund Development
12/10/2014
What is Quantopian?
• We are the world’s first algorithmic investing
platform built in the cloud.
• We provide the data, tools and infrastructure
quants need to research, create, test and invest
with algorithms from their browser.
• We offer a community of quants, scientists, and
hackers collaborating to find better investment
ideas.
• We are launching a crowd-sourced quant hedge
fund.
Quantopian is Launching a Hedge Fund
• What is a hedge fund and why do people invest
in them?
• Alternative investment strategies
• Aspire for low-correlation to general market movements
• “Hedged” against large market shock events like the Tech Bubble
burst of 2000, and financial crisis of 2008 where many stocks went
down >50% over ~3 months.
• The very best funds succeed via small gains achieved
consistently over time.
• Rarely suffering large losses allows for consistent compounded
growth of the portfolio
To be a Great Hedge Fund…
…is NOT…
• Hitting homeruns and making 50% per year
• Large investors actually frown on funds with huge single year gains because
it signals excessive risk taking
...but rather is…
• 12% per year annual return
• 6% per year annual volatility
• Sharpe Ratio of 2.0 is a huge achievement in the hedge fund game
• Never suffering more than a 10% loss from peak-to-trough
• Do this for 10 years straight and you’re in the top 1% of all funds
CONSISTENCY = $$$$$$
Running a Hedge Fund is Hard
• Typically funds generate strategy ideas from very few
people
• Built upon the few areas of expertise of the portfolio
managers
• Fundamental investing
• High-frequency trading
• Long-only investing, with simple hedging
• Sector specific investing (e.g. Tech companies, etc.)
• Very difficult to minimize your fund’s risk across various
business cycles when your expertise is limited to a few
areas
More Heads Are Better Than One!
• Crowd-sourcing opens a fire hose of ideas.
• Diversity of ideas will result in a diversified hedge fund
portfolio
• Quantopian has unique access to tens of thousands of
quants which allows for idea generation at an
unprecedented scale.
• Our challenge is to:
• attract and identify consistent high-performers
• construct a portfolio
• re-evaluate and re-balance strategies frequently for ongoing
CONSISTENCY in portfolio returns.
1. Strong investment rationale. Quantopian is looking for strategies that are built
upon a solid understanding of financial, macro-economic and behavioral drivers in
the market. Being able to articulate a strong investment rational about why a model
works provides the framework for a rigorous research process and the potential for
a long-running successful strategy.
1. Rigorous research process. The single biggest concern we hear from allocators
looking at quant managers is the fear of data-mining, over-fitting and sensitivity to
simplistic model assumptions. A hypothesis-driven research process that explicitly
controls for model over-fitting using techniques such as "in" vs. "out of sample"
testing as well as walk-forward testing, statistical analysis of uncertainty based on
the number of free parameters fit, as well as best practices facilitated by
Quantopian's infrastructure to keep research both survivorship bias and look ahead
bias free, has the best likelihood of successful real-money performance.
1. Thoughtful risk management. Long-lived successful professional quant
managers will tell you that ‘it’s all about surviving the drawdowns’. Understanding
and controlling what risk factors your strategy is exposed to (e.g. market risk,
liquidity risk, sector risk, etc.) and how to tell when those exposures breach
historical norms is equally as important as identifying un-correlated alpha
strategies.
Identify High-Performers:
3 Core Principles of Good Quant Strategies
Identify High Performers:
Key Performance Metrics
• Sharpe Ratio
• Penalizes you for taking excessive risk in achieving your returns
• Annual Volatility
• Expected 1 standard deviation fluctuation in your portfolio over 1
year period
• Max Drawdown
• “peak-to-trough” worst loss suffered historically
• Consistency of Returns
• Is the volatility of your portfolio consistent over time?
Identify High Performers: It’s Not Just About the Returns.
2012 2013 2014
$100
$150
• Our job is to build a fund by filtering out the ORANGE algos, and investing in a lot of RED algos, as well as
hopefully some closer to the BLUE idealized line.
• After investing in a RED algo, monitor it in the event it turns ORANGE
Identify High-Performers:
Quantitative Evaluation Process
• Filter strategies based on quantitative metrics to select
• Consistent quants, with
• Low volatility in their returns,
• Across various market cycles (bull/bear/recession)
• Rank managers against each of the criteria, and generate a
composite ‘Q score’ for each trader.
• Construct a portfolio of strategies based on independent Q-
score AND on consideration of cross-strategy correlations and
risk exposures.
• Rigorously re-evaluate strategy performance over time to
monitor deviation from expected returns/risk
• Red flag is raised when they become inconsistent
5 Example Highly Ranked Current Live
Traders on Quantopian
Returns to a Simple Equal-weight Portfolio of
the Same 5 Managers (where data available)
12
How will Quantopian attract the best
quant talent to be managers in our fund?
Align our business with the quant as our north-star
customer. This means:
• Community based platform. Build the best platform for quant
mentorship, research, algo development and trading and keep it
free.
• Independence and ownership. Quants retain ownership of their
own intellectual property and code base.
• Transparent, meritocratic capital allocation. As we formalize
the process for being selected in Quantopian’s fund we’ll continue
our open dialogue with the community with the same level of
transparency you now expect.
Appendix
Thank You.
Questions?

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Quantopian is Launching a Crowd-sourced Hedge Fund

  • 1. Launching a Crowd-sourced Hedge fund Jess Stauth VP, Quant Strategy Justin Lent Director, Fund Development 12/10/2014
  • 2. What is Quantopian? • We are the world’s first algorithmic investing platform built in the cloud. • We provide the data, tools and infrastructure quants need to research, create, test and invest with algorithms from their browser. • We offer a community of quants, scientists, and hackers collaborating to find better investment ideas. • We are launching a crowd-sourced quant hedge fund.
  • 3. Quantopian is Launching a Hedge Fund • What is a hedge fund and why do people invest in them? • Alternative investment strategies • Aspire for low-correlation to general market movements • “Hedged” against large market shock events like the Tech Bubble burst of 2000, and financial crisis of 2008 where many stocks went down >50% over ~3 months. • The very best funds succeed via small gains achieved consistently over time. • Rarely suffering large losses allows for consistent compounded growth of the portfolio
  • 4. To be a Great Hedge Fund… …is NOT… • Hitting homeruns and making 50% per year • Large investors actually frown on funds with huge single year gains because it signals excessive risk taking ...but rather is… • 12% per year annual return • 6% per year annual volatility • Sharpe Ratio of 2.0 is a huge achievement in the hedge fund game • Never suffering more than a 10% loss from peak-to-trough • Do this for 10 years straight and you’re in the top 1% of all funds CONSISTENCY = $$$$$$
  • 5. Running a Hedge Fund is Hard • Typically funds generate strategy ideas from very few people • Built upon the few areas of expertise of the portfolio managers • Fundamental investing • High-frequency trading • Long-only investing, with simple hedging • Sector specific investing (e.g. Tech companies, etc.) • Very difficult to minimize your fund’s risk across various business cycles when your expertise is limited to a few areas
  • 6. More Heads Are Better Than One! • Crowd-sourcing opens a fire hose of ideas. • Diversity of ideas will result in a diversified hedge fund portfolio • Quantopian has unique access to tens of thousands of quants which allows for idea generation at an unprecedented scale. • Our challenge is to: • attract and identify consistent high-performers • construct a portfolio • re-evaluate and re-balance strategies frequently for ongoing CONSISTENCY in portfolio returns.
  • 7. 1. Strong investment rationale. Quantopian is looking for strategies that are built upon a solid understanding of financial, macro-economic and behavioral drivers in the market. Being able to articulate a strong investment rational about why a model works provides the framework for a rigorous research process and the potential for a long-running successful strategy. 1. Rigorous research process. The single biggest concern we hear from allocators looking at quant managers is the fear of data-mining, over-fitting and sensitivity to simplistic model assumptions. A hypothesis-driven research process that explicitly controls for model over-fitting using techniques such as "in" vs. "out of sample" testing as well as walk-forward testing, statistical analysis of uncertainty based on the number of free parameters fit, as well as best practices facilitated by Quantopian's infrastructure to keep research both survivorship bias and look ahead bias free, has the best likelihood of successful real-money performance. 1. Thoughtful risk management. Long-lived successful professional quant managers will tell you that ‘it’s all about surviving the drawdowns’. Understanding and controlling what risk factors your strategy is exposed to (e.g. market risk, liquidity risk, sector risk, etc.) and how to tell when those exposures breach historical norms is equally as important as identifying un-correlated alpha strategies. Identify High-Performers: 3 Core Principles of Good Quant Strategies
  • 8. Identify High Performers: Key Performance Metrics • Sharpe Ratio • Penalizes you for taking excessive risk in achieving your returns • Annual Volatility • Expected 1 standard deviation fluctuation in your portfolio over 1 year period • Max Drawdown • “peak-to-trough” worst loss suffered historically • Consistency of Returns • Is the volatility of your portfolio consistent over time?
  • 9. Identify High Performers: It’s Not Just About the Returns. 2012 2013 2014 $100 $150 • Our job is to build a fund by filtering out the ORANGE algos, and investing in a lot of RED algos, as well as hopefully some closer to the BLUE idealized line. • After investing in a RED algo, monitor it in the event it turns ORANGE
  • 10. Identify High-Performers: Quantitative Evaluation Process • Filter strategies based on quantitative metrics to select • Consistent quants, with • Low volatility in their returns, • Across various market cycles (bull/bear/recession) • Rank managers against each of the criteria, and generate a composite ‘Q score’ for each trader. • Construct a portfolio of strategies based on independent Q- score AND on consideration of cross-strategy correlations and risk exposures. • Rigorously re-evaluate strategy performance over time to monitor deviation from expected returns/risk • Red flag is raised when they become inconsistent
  • 11. 5 Example Highly Ranked Current Live Traders on Quantopian
  • 12. Returns to a Simple Equal-weight Portfolio of the Same 5 Managers (where data available) 12
  • 13. How will Quantopian attract the best quant talent to be managers in our fund? Align our business with the quant as our north-star customer. This means: • Community based platform. Build the best platform for quant mentorship, research, algo development and trading and keep it free. • Independence and ownership. Quants retain ownership of their own intellectual property and code base. • Transparent, meritocratic capital allocation. As we formalize the process for being selected in Quantopian’s fund we’ll continue our open dialogue with the community with the same level of transparency you now expect.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.

Editor's Notes

  1. Demo prototype.
  2. Evaluating managers along these ‘Core principles’ tends to be a subjective and time-intensive process that can often introduce additional biases (e.g. behavioral biases to ‘trust’ that managers with good pedigrees will be better at risk management). Tackling this type of evaluation head on is a pretty well characterized problem faced by every external manager allocator and to some extent every investor. So much so that there exists a whole segment of the investment management sector that handles ‘outsourced’ diligence. We don’t intend to disregard, or ‘throw out’ these principles, however we DO intend to work towards quantifying and automating as much of this diligence as possible – something that will likely be a work in progress over the first few years of our fund’s launch. Working in our favor is that fact that we are no only going to be an allocator, but we are also the core software platform where our quants will do their research, strategy development and trading – so we have access to more and more timely data about the strategies, as well as a backtester we can use to stress-test strategies under a consistent set of conditions (most allocators get a pitch book with a bunch of plots that they have no way of verifying or modifying).
  3. While quantifying a good research process or thoughtful risk management is more subjective, there do exist a host of quantitative measures designed to evaluate how ‘good’ a quant strategy is that we can leverage right off the bat. These are just four of the most common performance metrics we are using to study the strategies trading on Quantopian today. We expect all four of these measures (in some form or other) to play a large role in scoring strategies.
  4. So why bother with all of this risk-adjusted measures? Shouldn’t we just care about how much money each strategy has made and invest in the most profitable ones? This chart is a nice illustration comparing three toy equity curves that all end up with an (admirable) 50% return over just two years. If you put yourself in the investors shoes for a moment and imagine your day to day blood pressure over these two years it should be apparent pretty quickly which path you’d prefer to take. To be more systematic about it, higher volatility strategies with larger drawdowns will carry much higher ‘risk of ruin’ which could be defined as margin calls or investor redemptions, and which will stop you out before you get to find out if you’re about to hit the next big upswing.
  5. Our current pilot process for identifying high performers is driven by two steps of basic filtering and then ranking on the key performance metrics. The final step involves constructing a portfolio of strategies with the end goal of building a consistent track record of ‘fund level’ performance that meets our definition of a ‘great hedge fund’.
  6. So by now you’re probably wondering, does Quantopian have anyone trading one of these desirable strategies today? Happily the answer is yes (and full disclosure, knowing the traction that we were getting with live trading and looking at preliminary analyses of returns already told us this and drove our confidence in pursuing this model). BUT – we need more! So thinking back to the ‘challenges’ we outlined on an earlier slide. If we assume that we can put together a rational and repeatable process for identifying high performers, the next challenge is for us to grow the farm team and attract top talent, and critically to actually help DEVELOP top talent from previously untapped sources (e.g. cs, hard sciences, hackers, hobbyists, etc.)