UK Financial Optimism March 2014

1. © DataTalk Research Ltd March 2014 Page 1
BCI – Financial Optimism Index; March 2014
Consumer Confidence continued to rise ahead of the Budget.
The British Consumer Index (BCI) has today (19 March 2014) released the latest Financial Optimism Index.
The Financial Optimism Index measures how people think their personal financial situation will change over the next
few months.
The pre-Christmas stalling in confidence
seems to have passed with consumers
recovering their slightly optimistic outlook.
Budgets tend not to have any major
immediate impact on sentiment with people
tending to rely on their own experience to
govern their views.
The chart (left) shows the trend in Financial
Optimism for the population as a whole,
however, within that there are wide
discrepancies between different sections of
the population. Detailed analysis of the data
can establish levels of optimism different
groups of people and how that is reflected in
other behaviors and attitudes.
One example of this is the difference between those people who respond to on line surveys, those who don’t and
those who have no internet access.
Post budget confidence surveys will tend to be conducted on line so it is interesting to see this variance in sentiment,
see chart below.

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It can be seen that the difference takes two forms; firstly those who respond to on line surveys tend to be more
optimistic and, secondly they are more volatile in their views. People without internet access are both less optimistic
and less volatile although this is more a function of the age profile than anything to do with internet access. The
British Consumer Index started to collect data on whether people respond to on line surveys and, if so, what type in
July 2011.
Implications for Spending
Financial Optimism is one of the major drivers of personal. The correlation between ‘Intention to Purchase’ and
‘Financial Optimism’ can be seen from the chart below.
The chart shows the number of people who do not intend to purchase in the near future from any of the 23 different
sectors monitored by the British Consumer Index. This provides a useful measure of the ‘inclination to spend’ and, as
such, can be interpreted as an indication of likely future spending. Again these figures represent the population as a
whole; more detailed analysis will reveal trends for different sections of the population and the implications for
different businesses.
For further information, analysis and comment contact:
Steve Abbott; Director; The British Consumer Index
Email; stevea@thebps.co.uk
Tel; 0203 286 1981
Skype; steveathebps
Notes: Figures are collected by The British Population Survey by face to face in home interviews with a population representative
sample of 1,000 adults aged 15+ per month (total sample size = 51,919).
Financial Optimism Index values range between 100 (fully positive) and -100 (fully negative).