Key economic indicators in America’s residential real estate market, including mortgage origination volume, housing supply, credit availability and real estate pricing trends.

1. U.S. Housing Market Health Check
Key economic indicators in America’s residential real estate market
Prepared by Nima Wedlake
September 2021
Thomvest Ventures Research

2. I. Housing Affordability & Supply

3. The Schiller home
price index has far
exceeded 2007 levels
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, 1987
-
2021
- Home prices have grown rapidly in the
years following the Great Recession.
- Between 2012 and 2020, home prices
grew 5.8% annually, compared to 8.7%
annual home price appreciation
between 1999 and 2007.
- Between 2020 and 2021, the home
price index grew by 16.4% — a single-
year record.
- Home prices dropped about 35%
between mid-2006 and early 2009 in
the
f
irst nationwide decline since the
Great Depression. They have since
recovered, and are now at more than
120% of their prior peak level in 2007.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
100
150
200
250
300
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
1
226.9
Mar ’06
- The National Home Price Index tracks the purchase price and resale value of single-family homes. It covers the nine major U.S. census divisions.
16.4% CAGR
9.7% CAGR
274.6
May ’21
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today

4. Many markets have
experienced explosive
year-over-year growth
in home values
Year-over-Year Home Price Index Growth, by U.S. Metro (August 2021)
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)
Boise City, ID
Austin, TX
Missoula, MT
Phoenix, AZ
Truckee, CA
Stockton, CA
Spokane, WA
Reno, NV
Salt Lake City, UT
San Diego, CA
Riverside, CA
Colorado Springs, CO
Tampa, FL
Las Vegas, NV
Seattle, WA
Charlotte, NC
Atlanta, GA
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX
San Francisco, CA
10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
18%
21%
21%
22%
23%
23%
26%
27%
27%
27%
28%
28%
30%
31%
32%
32%
35%
45%
46%
- All major U.S. metros experienced
growth in home values, but smaller
metro areas such as Boise, Idaho and
Austin, Texas experienced the most
meaningful growth, driven by
homebuyer demand for more space
and relative value.
- Many credit the rise of remote work as
a key driver of price appreciation in
these markets. Realtor.com Chief
Economist Danielle Hale:
“This past year, we’ve all become more
reliant on technology to work, learn,
and maintain personal connections.
The technology hubs that make this
possible are thriving, as are their
housing markets,”

5. U.S. Mortgage A
ff
ordability (% of Median Income), 1990
-
2020
14.8% in Q4 2020
Historically low
mortgage rates have
improved mortgage
a
ff
ordability
- While home prices have increased,
mortgage costs as a percentage of
household income has actually
declined relative to Great Recession
levels.
- This is due in part to declining
mortgage rates, tightened credit
standards, and wage growth.
- Mortgage costs relative to median
income dropped below 15% in 2020,
driven by declining mortgage rates.
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
10%
20%
30%
Q
1
1
9
9
0
Q
1
1
9
9
2
Q
1
1
9
9
4
Q
1
1
9
9
6
Q
1
1
9
9
8
Q
1
2
0
0
0
Q
1
2
0
0
2
Q
1
2
0
0
4
Q
1
2
0
0
6
Q
1
2
0
0
8
Q
1
2
0
1
0
Q
1
2
0
1
2
Q
1
2
0
1
4
Q
1
2
0
1
6
Q
1
2
0
1
8
Q
1
2
0
2
0
23.9% in Q3 2006
Source: National Association of Realtors

6. Median Days on Market for Sold Homes, 2012
-
2021
Strong homebuyer
demand is leading to
quick sales — about two
weeks from list to close
- In May 2021, 57% of homes that went
under contract had an accepted o
ff
er
within the
f
irst two weeks on the
market.
- 44% of homes that went under
contract had an accepted o
ff
er within
one week of hitting the market.
Source: Red
f
in
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
7
-
2
0
1
2
0
1
-
2
0
1
3
0
7
-
2
0
1
3
0
1
-
2
0
1
4
J
u
l
2
0
1
4
0
1
-
2
0
1
5
0
7
-
2
0
1
5
0
1
-
2
0
1
6
0
7
-
2
0
1
6
0
1
-
2
0
1
7
0
7
-
2
0
1
7
0
1
-
2
0
1
8
0
7
-
2
0
1
8
0
1
-
2
0
1
9
0
7
-
2
0
1
9
0
1
-
2
0
2
0
0
7
-
2
0
2
0
0
1
-
2
0
2
1
0
7
-
2
0
2
1
97 Days in Feb ‘12
15 Days in July ‘21
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today

7. For Sale Housing Inventory (in Millions) by Month, 2012
-
2021
Homes available for
sale are at multi-year
lows, exacerbating
housing supply issues
- The number of homes for sale in the
U.S. reached a multi-decade low in
2021, driven by the rapid pace of
existing home sales combined with
the limited inventory of newly
constructed homes.
- Active listings (the number of homes
listed for sale at any point during the
period) fell 49% from the same period
in 2019.
- Some industry analyst expect
inventory to climb heading into 2022,
as many would-be sellers have held o
ff
listing while they remain protected by
foreclosure moratoriums and
forbearance programs.
0.5M
1.0M
1.5M
2.0M
2.5M
0
7
-
2
0
1
2
0
1
-
2
0
1
3
0
7
-
2
0
1
3
0
1
-
2
0
1
4
J
u
l
2
0
1
4
0
1
-
2
0
1
5
0
7
-
2
0
1
5
0
1
-
2
0
1
6
0
7
-
2
0
1
6
0
1
-
2
0
1
7
0
7
-
2
0
1
7
0
1
-
2
0
1
8
0
7
-
2
0
1
8
0
1
-
2
0
1
9
0
7
-
2
0
1
9
0
1
-
2
0
2
0
0
7
-
2
0
2
0
0
1
-
2
0
2
1
0
7
-
2
0
2
1
2.16M Listings in May ‘12
Source: Red
f
in
820K Listings in July ‘21
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today

8. Average Sale Price-to-List Price Ratio for Sold Homes, 2012
-
2021
In 2021, homes are
selling for more than
their list price, signaling
strong buyer demand
- The average sale-to-list price ratio,
which measures how close homes are
selling to their asking prices, reached
a record high 102.5% in 2021, signaling
the competitive nature of today’s
housing market.
- 50% of homes sold above list price, up
from 33% a year earlier. This measure
has been falling since the four-week
period ending July 11, when it peaked
at 55%.
Source: Red
f
in
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
102%
103%
104%
105%
0
7
-
2
0
1
2
0
1
-
2
0
1
3
0
7
-
2
0
1
3
0
1
-
2
0
1
4
J
u
l
2
0
1
4
0
1
-
2
0
1
5
0
7
-
2
0
1
5
0
1
-
2
0
1
6
0
7
-
2
0
1
6
0
1
-
2
0
1
7
0
7
-
2
0
1
7
0
1
-
2
0
1
8
0
7
-
2
0
1
8
0
1
-
2
0
1
9
0
7
-
2
0
1
9
0
1
-
2
0
2
0
0
7
-
2
0
2
0
0
1
-
2
0
2
1
0
7
-
2
0
2
1
96% in Feb ‘12
102.5% in July ‘21
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today

9. 600
1,200
1,800
2,400
3,000
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
2
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
8
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
0
Annual U.S. Housing Construction Starts (in Thousands of Units), 1980
-
2021
New construction
starts have yet to
recover following the
Great Recession
- Lack of new housing supply is a major
contributor to home price
appreciation — housing completions
have trailed household growth in
every year since following the Great
Recession.
- Some 12.3 million American
households were formed from January
2012 to June 2021, but just 7 million
new single-family homes were built
during that time.
- Supply chain issues caused by the
pandemic have also impacted the
pace of construction, according to
Pulte CEO Ryan Marshall:
“Shortages for a variety of building
products, combined with increased
production volumes across the
homebuilding industry, are directly
impacting our ability to get homes
closed to our level of quality over the
remainder of 2021.”
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2.1M Starts
2005
1.4M Starts
2020
1.07M
Avg. yearly starts, 2011
-
2020
1.73M
Avg. yearly starts, 2000
-
2007

10. 10
II. U.S. Mortgage Activity

11. Mortgages rates
dropped to historical
lows in 2020, and
remain below 3%
Average Rate for Conforming 30
-
Year Fixed Rate Mortgage, 1972
-
2021
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1
9
7
2
1
9
7
4
1
9
7
6
1
9
7
8
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
7
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
1
- Despite historically high home prices,
home a
ff
ordability is low relative to
historical standards due to a dramatic
decline in mortgage rates.
- For context, every 100 basis point
decrease in mortgage interest rate
increases “buying power” by ~15% —
meaning prospective buyers can
a
ff
ord to purchase more expensive
homes.
2.87% in July 2021
6.57% in August 2007
Source: Freddie Mac
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today

12. Total U.S. Mortgage Debt Balance (in Trillions, USD), 2003
-
2021
$2T
$4T
$6T
$8T
$10T
$12T
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
$10.44T in Q2 2021
$9.29T in Q3 2008
Total outstanding
mortgage debt has
surpassed Great
Recession levels
- While total debt has grown, its growth
rate over the last several years is much
lower (5%) than annual debt growth
seen prior to the Great Recession
(12%).
- Home values have grown more rapidly
in the period following the Great
Recession — the aggregate value all
U.S. owner-occupied homes is more
than $36 trillion.
12% CAGR
5% CAGR
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today

13. 200
400
600
800
1000
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
Mortgage Credit Availability Index, 2004
-
2021
119.1 in July 2021
Peak of 868.7 in June 2006
Credit availability
dropped at the start of
the pandemic & is well
below pre-GFC highs
- The Mortgage Credit Availability Index
is calculated using several factors
related to borrower eligibility (credit
score, loan type, loan-to-value ratio,
etc.).
- Credit availability spiked during the
Great Recession, and declined sharply
due to regulatory changes, as well as
updates to bank underwriting policies.
- The credit availability index dropped
sharply in March 2020, as a result of
tightening credit standards during the
COVID
-
19 pandemic.
- The recent decline in credit availability
is primarily impacting the jumbo and
non-QM space — jumbo credit
availability experienced a 36.9%
month-over-month decline in
mid-2020.
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today

14. U.S. Mortgage Originations (in Billions, USD), 2003
-
2021
$300B
$600B
$900B
$1,200B
$1,500B
Q
2
2
0
0
3
Q
2
2
0
0
4
Q
2
2
0
0
5
Q
2
2
0
0
6
Q
2
2
0
0
7
Q
2
2
0
0
8
Q
2
2
0
0
9
Q
2
2
0
1
0
Q
2
2
0
1
1
Q
2
2
0
1
2
Q
2
2
0
1
3
Q
2
2
0
1
4
Q
2
2
0
1
5
Q
2
2
0
1
6
Q
2
2
0
1
7
Q
2
2
0
1
8
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
1
$1.06T in Q3 2003
Mortgage origination
volume skyrocketed in
2020 due to record-
low interest rates
- Mortgage originations spiked in the
years preceding the Great Recession,
driven by relaxed credit standards and
an active housing market.
- In Q2 2021, origination volume
reached a record level of $1.22T,
surpassing volumes seen prior to the
Great Recession.
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
$1.22T in Q2 2021
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today

15. $300B
$600B
$900B
$1,200B
$1,500B
Q
2
2
0
0
3
Q
2
2
0
0
4
Q
2
2
0
0
5
Q
2
2
0
0
6
Q
2
2
0
0
7
Q
2
2
0
0
8
Q
2
2
0
0
9
Q
2
2
0
1
0
Q
2
2
0
1
1
Q
2
2
0
1
2
Q
2
2
0
1
3
Q
2
2
0
1
4
Q
2
2
0
1
5
Q
2
2
0
1
6
Q
2
2
0
1
7
Q
2
2
0
1
8
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
1
<620 620
-
659 660
-
719 720
-
759 760+
U.S. Mortgage Originations by Credit Score (in Billions, USD), 2003
-
2021
Originations have
shifted to borrowers
with strong credit
scores
- Prior to the Great Recession, only
20%-30% of mortgage originations
were to borrowers with credit scores
760 or higher.
- During the post-pandemic re
f
inance
boom, mortgage originations are
primarily being completed by
borrowers with excellent credit — 73%
of originations in Q1 2021 were to 760+
credit score borrowers.
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
% Originations 760+

16. Quarterly U.S. Cash-Out Re
f
inance Volume (in Billions, USD), 1994
-
2021
$20B
$40B
$60B
$80B
$100B
Q
1
1
9
9
4
Q
1
1
9
9
5
Q
1
1
9
9
6
Q
1
1
9
9
7
Q
1
1
9
9
8
Q
1
1
9
9
9
Q
1
2
0
0
0
Q
1
2
0
0
1
Q
1
2
0
0
2
Q
1
2
0
0
3
Q
1
2
0
0
4
Q
1
2
0
0
5
Q
1
2
0
0
6
Q
1
2
0
0
7
Q
1
2
0
0
8
Q
1
2
0
0
9
Q
1
2
0
1
0
Q
1
2
0
1
1
Q
1
2
0
1
2
Q
1
2
0
1
3
Q
1
2
0
1
4
Q
1
2
0
1
5
Q
1
2
0
1
6
Q
1
2
0
1
7
Q
1
2
0
1
8
Q
1
2
0
1
9
Q
1
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
1
Home Equity Cashed Out
2nd Mortgages/HELOC Consolidation
Cash-out re
f
inancings
have increased to
more than $75B in
quarterly volume
- Home equity withdrawal amounts
ballooned between 2005 and 2007 to
more than $80 billion per quarter.
- Origination volume has spiked again in
the last 2 years, driven by the low
interest rate environment and
economic impact of COVID
-
19 on
many households.
Source: Freddie Mac
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today

17. Tappable Equity of U.S. Mortgage Holders (in Trillions USD), 2004
-
2021
$2T
$4T
$6T
$8T
$10T
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
H
1
2
0
2
1
$2.2T in 2011
Aggregate home
equity in excess of
mortgage balances
reached $9.2T in 2021
- “Tappable Equity” is the equity
available on all residential properties
with an existing mortgage, before
reaching a current CLTV of 80%.
- Tappable equity reached an all-time
high of $9.2 trillion in 2021.
- The average owner with tappable
equity has $170,000 available to
borrow against.
- Housing equity as a share of
aggregate home values grew from
36.7% in 2009 to 60.4% in 2020,
according to the Urban Institute.
$9.2T in 2021
Source: Black Knight

18. Number of U.S. Mortgage and Home Equity Accounts (in Millions), 2003
-
2021
20M
40M
60M
80M
100M
120M
Q
2
2
0
0
3
Q
2
2
0
0
4
Q
2
2
0
0
5
Q
2
2
0
0
6
Q
2
2
0
0
7
Q
2
2
0
0
8
Q
2
2
0
0
9
Q
2
2
0
1
0
Q
2
2
0
1
1
Q
2
2
0
1
2
Q
2
2
0
1
3
Q
2
2
0
1
4
Q
2
2
0
1
5
Q
2
2
0
1
6
Q
2
2
0
1
7
Q
2
2
0
1
8
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
1
Peak of 98.1M accts. in Q1 2008
Peak of 24.2M accts. in Q4 2007
Mortgage
Home Equity
80.8M accts. in Q2 2021
13.1M accts. in Q2 2021
The total number of
active mortgages is
nearly 20 million less
than its 2008 peak
- While total mortgage debt is at a
record high, the aggregate number of
mortgages is low relative to historical
standards.
- Despite the mortgage origination
boom in 2020 and 2021, the total
number of mortgage accounts has
remained
f
lat and the number of
HELOC accounts has declined.
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax

19. New Seriously Delinquent (90+ Days) Balances by Loan Type (% of Balance), 2003
-
2021
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Q
2
2
0
0
3
Q
2
2
0
0
4
Q
2
2
0
0
5
Q
2
2
0
0
6
Q
2
2
0
0
7
Q
2
2
0
0
8
Q
2
2
0
0
9
Q
2
2
0
1
0
Q
2
2
0
1
1
Q
2
2
0
1
2
Q
2
2
0
1
3
Q
2
2
0
1
4
Q
2
2
0
1
5
Q
2
2
0
1
6
Q
2
2
0
1
7
Q
2
2
0
1
8
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
1
Mortgage
Home Equity
Delinquency rates for
mortgages and home
equity loans are near
historic lows
- Following the Great Recession,
mortgage delinquency rates have
stayed low by historical standards.
- 30 days or more delinquency rate for
January 2020 was 3.5% — the rate was
the lowest for a January in at least 20
years.
- Mortgage forbearance programs have
suppressed delinquencies by allowing
borrowers impacted by COVID
-
19 to
defer payment for a period of time.
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today
0.33% in Q2 2021

20. Number of New Foreclosures and Bankruptcies (in Thousands), 2003
-
2021
200
400
600
800
1000
Q
2
2
0
0
3
Q
2
2
0
0
4
Q
2
2
0
0
5
Q
2
2
0
0
6
Q
2
2
0
0
7
Q
2
2
0
0
8
Q
2
2
0
0
9
Q
2
2
0
1
0
Q
2
2
0
1
1
Q
2
2
0
1
2
Q
2
2
0
1
3
Q
2
2
0
1
4
Q
2
2
0
1
5
Q
2
2
0
1
6
Q
2
2
0
1
7
Q
2
2
0
1
8
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
1
New Foreclosure New Bankruptcy
The number of U.S.
foreclosures and
bankruptcies is down
meaningfully
- Approximately 71,000 individuals had
a new foreclosure notation added to
their credit reports in Q4 2019,
remaining very low by historical
standards.
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
Great Recession, 2007 — 2009
COVID
-
19 Pandemic, Q2 2020 — Today

21. U.S. Age Distribution (in Millions), 2020
3.5M
4.0M
4.5M
5.0M
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
4.8M
29 year-olds
4.4M
33 year-olds
An impending boom in
f
irst-time buyers may
drive continued
demand for housing
- The median age of a
f
irst time
homebuyer is 33— there are 4.4
million 33 year-olds in the U.S. vs.
more than 4.8 million 29 year-olds.
- As Americans in their late twenties age
into the home purchase market over
the next 2
-
4 years, we expect a period
of sustained housing demand.
- However, we also expect accelerated
supply of properties over the next
decade as baby boomers transition
out of their homes.
Median Age of First-
Time Homebuyer
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division; Population estimate as of July 2020

22. 22
III. COVID
-
19 Impact on Mortgage Performance

23. Indicators of Mortgage Borrower Credit Quality, 2007 vs. 2020
The U.S. housing market
was “healthier” prior to
the pandemic vs. the
period preceding the
Great Recession
- In Q1 2020, homeowners were in
stronger equity positions relative to
2007 — fewer had mortgages (62% vs.
68%) and those that did had a lower
loan-to-value ratio (53.3% vs. 61.8%).
- There were fewer high-risk mortgage
products in 2020 vs 2007, including
60% fewer subprime loans and 75%
fewer adjustable rate mortgages.
- The mortgage payment to income
ratio was lower in 2020 relative to
2007 (20.9% vs. 31.8%)
- The roughly 7.5M homeowners who've
been in a forbearance plan at some
point since the start of the pandemic
represent 15% of all mortgaged
properties
Metric Great Recession
(Entering 2007)
COVID
-
19
(February 2020)
Percent of Homeowners w/ a Mortgage 68.4% 62.9%
Number of Active Mortgages 53.7M 52.9M
Percent of Homeowners w/ Less Than 10% Equity 14.5% 6.6%
Total Market CLTV 57.4% 52.3%
Average Current CLTV 61.8% 53.3%
Average DTI at Origination 34.5 33.5
Average Original Credit Score 708 736
Average Current Credit Score 713 747
Mortgage Delinquency Rate 4.92% 3.28%
Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio 31.8% 20.9%
Number of Active Subprime Loans 5.1M 1.98M
Number of Active ARM Mortgages 12.89M 3.2M
ARM Mortgages Scheduled to Reset w/in 3 Years 4.95M 320K
GNMA/GSE Share 63% 75%
Source: Black Knight & Urban Institute

24. National Delinquency Rate — First Lien Mortgages, 2019
-
2021
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Q
1
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
3
2
0
1
9
Q
4
2
0
1
9
Q
1
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
3
2
0
2
0
Q
4
2
0
2
0
Q
1
2
0
2
1
Q
2
2
0
2
1
Q
3
2
0
2
1
3.2% = Record Low DQ Rate
4.5% = Avg. DQ Rate, 2000
-
2005
4.14%
Jul ’21
Delinquency rates have
normalized to historical
averages after spiking
to nearly 8% in 2020
- The national delinquency rate saw a
5% reduction in July, and at 4.14% is
within a single percentage point of its
pre-pandemic level.
- While overall delinquency volumes
continue to edge closer to pre-
pandemic levels, some 1.45 million
borrowers remained 90 or more days
past due – but not yet in foreclosure –
at the end of July.
7.76%
May ’20
Source: Black Knight

25. Breakdown of All Past Due Mortgages (30+ Days) — As of June 2021
Most mortgages that
are 30+ days past due
have entered into
forbearance or loss
mitigation programs
- While more than 1.5 million 30+ day
delinquencies remain during the
COVID
-
19 pandemic, the vast majority
(94%) of those delinquent loans are
either in a forbearance plan or active
loss mitigation with their servicer.
- Two-thirds of borrowers who are 30
days or more past due on their
mortgage have opted into forbearance
programs.
- 17% of delinquent borrowers have not
entered into a forbearance program.
- About half of all mortgages that went
into forbearance programs during the
pandemic are now back to
“performing” status.
Source: McDash Flash, McDash Primary, Black Knight
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Pre-COVID Deliquencies Post-COVID Deliquencies
273,000
296,000
100,000
102,000
195,000
100,000
1,074,000
323,000
Active Forbearance
Active Loss Mitigation
Removed from Forbearance
Never Forbearance