1. Sustainability of Solar Mini-Grids in Nigeria
Adedoyin Adebodun ADELEKE
(Matriculation No.: 189186)
+234 (0) 703-929-8938 | adedoyin.ade@gmail.com
Centre for Petroleum, Energy Economics and Law
University of Ibadan
Ibadan, Nigeria
Supervisor: Dr. C.J. Diji

2. Outline
 Introduction
 Policy Framework
 Literature Review
 Methodology
 Analysis and Result
 Conclusion and Recommendation
 Efforts for Implementation, Impacts
and Future Studies

3.  Driver of the economy- Energy-based
parameters have been used as development
indicators
 Evolution driven by innovation – Fossil Fuel
◦ Impact of human-induced GHG emissions
◦ Non-Renewability
◦ Improved Energy Access
 Energy Access + Threat of Climate Change
= Renewable Energy(RE)
◦ Preferences defer with countries (Developed
VS Developing)
Introduction

4. RE Development in Nigeria
 Despite high RE resource vis-à-vis the high energy
deficiency, RE uptake is low.
 Solar PV is most adopted (28MW in 2015)
◦ 3.5kWh/m2/day (coastal) to 9kWh/m2/day (northern
boundaries)

5. Problem Statement &
Objective PV appropriateness is proven – Success
stories
 Need to examine the high rate of failure on
solar PV systems in Nigeria
 Focus: solar mini-grids
Annual & Cumulative Installed PV capacity in 2014

6. Solar Potential: Nigeria Vs European
countries

7. Policy Framework
To guide roadmap to RE development:
 REMP:
◦ 1st Draft (2005): Government's agenda for RE development:
 Improve Energy Security & mitigate climate change
◦ Achievement:
 Increased awareness of RETs & associated socio-economic benefits
 1MW PV installed capacity (2010)
◦ Basis for 2nd Draft (2012): critics, new local & international policy
guidelines, concision and precision
 Targeted at harnessing RE potentials
 Stipulates RE targets and timeline in short, medium & long terms with
timeline
 Fiscal (tax holidays, reduction in profit tax and import duty) and Financial
Incentives for organisations dealing in RE
 Profiles potential risk factors and emphasis risk identification, analysis and
mitigation

8. Nigeria’s Solar Energy
Targets
(based on the energy requirements for attainment of the Vision 20:2020)
Note: Short term: 2013-2015 Medium term: 2016-2020 Long term:
2021-2030
Source: Renewable Energy Master Plan (ECN&UNDP, 2012)
Total PV installed capacity: 1MW (2010)- Sambo (2010); 15MW in 2013
(REMP, 2012)

9. Policy Framework
 NREEEP-(Draft-2014, Approved - 2015)
◦ NEP (Draft-1992; Approved-2003): Incorporates
issues on RE and N-RE, appropriate technologies
and practices for EE
◦ NREEEP - Majorly an extraction from NEP as a
separate policy document RE & EE to meet
investors’ needs
◦ Similar to those of other developing countries,
NREEEP is targeted 1st at Energy Security unlike in
developed countries
◦ Highlight barriers to RE development & strategic
plans to overcome them

10.  Aimed at RE generation for electricity to
meet or exceeds ECOWAS regional target
 It empowers NREAP and NEEAP
designed to implement NREEEP
 Solar Target: (National energy mix)
◦ 3% in 2020 and 6% in 2030 maximum –
National Energy mix
◦ Focus: rural and off-grid communities through
solar PV and thermal systems
◦ Public enlightenment, R&D, capacity building
and Incentives
Policy Framework

11. Summary of RE Targets
(based on the energy requirements for attainment of the Vision 20:2020)
Source: National renewable energy and energy efficiency policy

12. Feed-In-Tariff
(Tariffs differ with Technologies & Project size)

13. Literature Review
 Global RE resource enough to meet global
energy demand (Moomaw, 2002 & Philibert,
2011)
 RE share of global energy generation 13.2% in
2002 and 22.8% in 2013
 40GW PV capacity was installed in 2014
 Solar PV contributes 0.9% to global electricity
production in 2014
 Wide gap between RE resources and their

14. Literature Review
Figure 3.1: Solar PV Global Capacity, 2004 – 2014 ( Source: (REN21
2015))

15. S/N Authour Objectives/
Methodology
Key Findings
1 ECORYS
(2010)
Literature review,
Questionnaire and
interviews
 Identified 9 challenges to RE electricity in
27 EU countries
 Grouped based on level of severity:
 Most severe: Administrative, Grid
connection, Poor awareness
 Medium severity: Barriers to build
environment, program with emerging RE
gas network and Poor qualification
training for installers, Technical
specifications often cause trade barriers
or full market blockage
 Least severe: Lack of promotional
strategies of EE appliances, poor
implementation of EE programmes
2 Pirlogea
(2009)
Review of
Literature
 Identified that barriers to investment in
RE in Romania are multidimensional:
technological, market administrative and
economic
Literature Review

16. Challenges of Global RE
DevelopmentS/N Authour Objectives/
Methodology
Key Findings
3 Moomaw (2002) Factors responsible for
the declining share of the
rapidly growing global
market for RETs in North
America (USA, Canada
and Mexico)
• High cost of long transmission of wind power
constitute a major barrier to wind energy
uptake.
• Need to overcome policy barriers
• Recommendations: rural and agricultural
application of Wind energy close to site of
generation
4 Painuly (2001) Developing framework for
identifying factors that
could constitute barriers
to RE uptake in
developing countries
• Identified market failure/imperfection,
market distortions economic; financial,
institutional, technical barriers
• Noted the negative impact of lack of
stakeholder involvement, poor legal and
regulatory framework, lack of standardization
measures, poorly developed manpower, poor
operation and maintenance activities
5 Ley (2012) Can small scale meet
development, CC
mitigation and adaption
goals in Guatemala and
Nicaragua?
Used participatory poverty
assessment techniques,
semi-structured interview
and stakeholder analysis
Identified factors responsible for poor
sustainability of projects include: poor project
design, inequitable distribution of proceeds,
poor institutional and maintenance frameworks

17. 5 Terrapon-pfaff et al
(2014), Balkema et al
(2010), World Bank
(2008) and M&EED
(2006)
Post-implementation
assessment of 23 RE
projects in 17 developing
countries
By analysis of empirical
data collected form In-
depth interview and
secondary data
• Initial designs of > 70% of successful
projects were adapted to meet practical
needs during implementation and
monitoring
• Major repairs and replacement of
components on 47% of projects that were
operational
• 80% of successful projects were produced
locally – Need for project monitoring and
community participation
• Factors that determines sustainability of
RETs are multidimensional: sense of
ownership, users satisfaction, stakeholder
engagements, effective monitoring,
financial viability, effective management
structure, environmental policy and
institutional conditions
• Lack of technical capacity in rural
communities and inadequacy of logistics
are major barriers to sustainability of RETs
Challenges of Global RE
Development

18. 7 Gaurav et al
(2010) and
ESMAP(2010)
,Beck and
Martinot
(2004), Riedy
(2008)and
Kurth (2007)
Studies the risks
associated with solar
energy projects by
review of literature
• Categorised them into policy,
financial, technical and social risks
• Exorbitant cost and unfavourable
power pricing regulations,
instability of policies, inadequate
institutional framework and
environmental issues could
constitute Political risks
• Risks associated with contracts
could also constitute policy risks on
the success of RE projects
Challenges of Global RE
Development

19. Nigeria: Energy Profile
Population ≈ 170million Energy Need = 31,240MW
Energy Generation = 5800MW Energy Deficiency = 25,440 MW
Electricity access in Africa – 2013
Region
Population without
electricity
millions
National electrification
rate (%)
Urban
electrification rate
(%)
Rural
electrification rate
(%)
Africa 635 43% 68% 26%
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
634 32% 59% 17%
Nigeria 96 45% 55% 37%
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook (2015)
Traditional use of biomass for cooking in Africa – 2013
Region
Population relying on traditional
use of biomass (million)
Percentage of population relying on traditional use
of biomass (%)
Africa 754 68%
Sub-Saharan
Africa
753 80%
Nigeria 122 70%
Impacts: Low Industrialisation, high unemployment rate, poor socioeconomic
development

20. Challenges of RE Development in
Nigeria
 (Soremi, 2014 - Slow growth due to
deficiencies in inclusiveness, specificity,
robustness and quality
 Edomah (2016): Subsidy on Petrol - cost
and pricing of energy, legal and
regulatory framework and market
performance
 ODI (2016): Inadequate finance, fiscal
barriers, low awareness, poor
reputation of the technology, subsidy

21. Theoretical Framework
 Theory – Photoelectric Effect
Structure of a Solar Cell
Source:
http://global.kyocera.com/solarexpo/img/solar_power
/mechanism/mecha_img01.gif (Assessed: August 2,
2016)
Configuration a Solar Module
Source: http://solarlove.org/how-solar-cells-work-
components-operation-of-solar-cells/ (Assessed: August 2,
2016)
Schematic of a Solar Mini-Grid System
Source: http://www.globalsolace.org/products/solar-powered-mini-grid/ (Assessed: August 2, 2016)

22. Methodology – Mini Grids
Location of Case studies covered in the study on the solar
map
Case
Project
Capacit
y
Year
Commis
sioned
Solar
Radiation
Ownership
/Funding
Status Load
1 6kW 2013 4.31kWh/m2/
d
Private
Investment
Functional 60homes, 20 streetlights
2 10kW 2008 6.50kWh/m2/
d
Public
“Donation”
Non-Functional 2homes, streetlights
Proposed six case study projects from 6 geopolitical zones of Nigeria
Factors considered: Age, Location, Functionality, Accessibility, Funding
Data Collection: PV system Inspection, FGDs and Interviews guided by
structured and semi-structured questionnaires

23. Case Study I

24. Case II

25. Dimensions of Sustainability: Definitions and
IndicatorsS/N TECHNICAL ECONOMIC SOCIAL ORGANISATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL
1 Quality of Component Existence of Bank
Account
Community
Engagement
Community Monitoring Use of energy efficient
Practices
2 Stakeholder Involvement Income Generating
Activity
Street lighting Security Use of energy efficient
components
3 Training for Community &
Operator
Powering Economic
Activity
Share of population
with electricity access
Insurance Scheme Plan for safe disposal of
used/expired components
4 Availability of Service Price Paid for Electricity
Supply
End-Users Satisfaction End-Users’ Satisfaction with
Energy Services
Carbon Saving
5 Availability of Spare parts O & M costs Electricity supply to
public Facilities
Level of Community
Engagement in Monitoring &
Maintenance
Existing Adverse
Environmental Impact
6 Remote Control System Strategic Plan for
Economic Development
Level of Community
Contribution
Developer-Donor
Relationship after
Commissioning
Participation Carbon Credit
Scheme
7 Certification of Project Pre-Implementation
Energy Survey
Pre-Installation
Consultation
Level of Community
Ownership
8 Completeness of System Pre-Implementation
Survey on ability to pay
Experience on Theft
&Vandalism
9 Digital Data System
10 Quality of Installation
11 Type and Frequency of
maintenance activities
12 Sophistication of
Maintenance Programmes

26. Analysis and Results
 Qualitative : Met the objective
 Quantitative: For comparative analysis
◦ Comparative Ranking (1-10,) – Ilksog (2008)
 1=Least Performance, 10=Best Performance
◦ Average score for each dimension for equal
weight: Averages were compared
 Definitions of Sustainability Dimension

27. Technical Sustainability –
Case 1
 24 unit of PV
 60 homes
 500Wh-800Wh
 19hours/day
 Complete
components
 Untampered
cabling
 Thunder arrestor

28. Technical Sustainability – Case II
 2 homes, streetlights &
mosque
 Poor/Wrong selection
of products
 No monitoring
 Tampered Cabling
 No Lightning Protection
 Vegetation Issues
 Poor system fencing
 Dilapidated housing for
balance of system
 Battery on the floor at
installation
 Poor competence of
Contractor
◦ Unknown in Nig. PV
Industry
◦ Commissioned – 2008
◦ Registered – 2008/01/17
◦ Political intervention
 Only functioned for
2years

29. Technical Sustainability
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
CASE 1
CASE 2

30. Economic Sustainability
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Pre-Implementation
Survey on willingness to
pay
Income-Generating
Activity
Existence of Bank Account Energy Supply for
Economic Activity
Participation Carbon
Credit Scheme
CASE 1
CASE 2
Case 1- IEEE & BOI Grants( Funding)
Connection + Tariff (prepaid)
7% Community contribution ( In-kind)
No deliberate economic development strategy
Case 2 - Federal-State Governments “Donation/Gift”
Free electricity supply + No income generating activity /support
Poor handling over
Community Contribution : Only Land

31. Social Sustainability
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Community
Engagement
Electricity supply
to Public
Facilities
Share of
population with
electricity access
End-Users
Satisfaction
Level of
Community
Contribution
Pre-Installation
Consultation
CASE 1
CASE 2
• Sources of Funding
• Nature of Operation
• Pre-implementation
Activities
• Community Engagement
• Community Contribution
• Socialisation Meetings
• Continued Relationship

32. Organisational Sustainability
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
CASE 1
CASE 2
• Monitoring: Personnel
Training, etc
• Handing Over
• Responsibility for
Maintenance
• Daily operation
• Security

33. Environmental Sustainability
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Use of energy efficient
Practices
Use of energy efficient
components
Plan for safe disposal of
used/expired
components
Carbon Saving Existing Adverse
Environmental Impact
CASE 1
CASE 2
• 91.3 metric tons of CO2
VS Zero
• Reduction in petrol,
kerosene and Candle
• Firewood, and
deforestation are not
affected,

34. Overall Sustainability
Mean of the total score for each dimension
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Technical Sustainability Economic Sustainability Social Sustainability Organisational
Sustainability
Environmental
Sustainability
CASE 1
CASE 2

35. Conclusion
 Sustainability > Technical Sustainability
= Appropriateness of the 5
dimensions
 Failure = Failure of any/a combination of
the 5 dimensions
 Technical Failure could result from failure of
the other 4 dimensions
 Failure = Inadequate Planning and
Implementation

36. Conclusion
 Specific factors (Objective):
◦ Infiltration of poor quality product or product not suited
for prevailing environmental conditions
◦ Lack of specialized training for Installers
◦ Poor monitoring (Low maintenance ≠ No maintenance)
◦ Inadequate Institutional Framework
◦ Deployment as “Donation/Gift” is not sustainable
◦ Poor stakeholder engagement: Requires other parties
 Developers may only be able to ensure technical
sustainability

37. Conclusion &
Recommendation
◦ Poor telecommunication network for remote
monitoring
 Corrective maintenance, shortens Project lifespan
◦ Limited capacity/Inability to power productive
activities
◦ Donor-funded: Lack of organised income
◦ Nepotism and corruption in the award of contract
Recommendations
◦ Adoption of standards: SON-ECN (Quality &
Adaptability)
◦ Compulsory National Curriculum for Installers
◦ Registration of Solar PV organisations
◦ Monitoring and maintenance should be integral to

38. Recommendation
 Solar mini-grid is best operated with a
business model (Donors: Plan for M&M)
 High level of stakeholder engagement
(Developers may only ensure technical sustainability)
 Strategic planning for Rural
Development
(Mobile network for remote monitoring)
 Coordination of rural intervention
development programmes
◦ (Socioeconomic development is not just a mere successor of energy
access)

39. When asked to give for any other comment, the head of the security group
said:
“We are happy you came to see the level of dilapidation of this project
so you can report to the Government to come and repair it” (Interpreted
from Hausa)
Therefore…
• Report will be forwarded to relevant agencies, some have expressed
interest already
Efforts for Implementation, Impacts and Future
Studies

40. Impact
Article: Energy Access in Off-Grid Rural
Communities (Adeleke, 2016)
Publisher: Renewable Energy World, USA
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/201
6/07/west-africa-regional-workshop-energy-
access-to-off-grid-rural-communities.html

41. THANK YOU
Adeleke Adedoyin Adebodun (189186)
Centre for Petroleum Energy Economics and Law
University of Ibadan
Ibadan | Nigeria
+234 (0) 703-929-8938 |