Conditions in the Commercial Real Estate Debt Markets
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This document contains commercial real estate market data and statistics from various sources including Trepp, LLC and RCA. Some key points: - CMBS delinquency rates have declined from their peaks in 2009-2010 but remain elevated compared to pre-financial crisis levels. Apartment and industrial property types have the lowest delinquency rates. - Commercial real estate transaction volumes increased significantly from 2012 to 2013, led by a 47% jump in apartment sales volumes. Capitalization rates compressed across most property sectors over this period. - Life insurance companies and private equity have become major sources of commercial real estate debt and equity as banks' market share has declined since the financial crisis.
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- 1. May 8, 2013
- 4. 4
- 5. 5
- 8. 8 Note: CMBS Delinquencies include Foreclosure, REO, Non Performing Balloon Loans Source: Trepp-CREFC Portfolio Lender Survey, Trepp BankNavigator
- 9. 9Source: Trepp-CREFC Portfolio Lender Survey, Trepp BankNavigator
- 11. 11
- 12. Office - CBD Office - Sub Apartment Retail Industrial 75 95 115 135 155 175 195 215 235 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Source: Moody’s/RCA
- 13. $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Billions Individual PortFolio -100% 0% 100% 200% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Year-Over-Year % Change Source: RCA
- 14. Apartment Office Retail Industrial Hotel YOY Change (bps)2012 Avg Cap Rate2012 Volume ($bil) YOY Change in Volume $85 $78 $53 $37 $20 47% 19% 20% 4% -2% 6.1% 7.1% 7.3% 7.7% 7.8% (23) (28) (25) (8) (1) Source: RCA
- 15. Office - CBD Office - Sub Apartment Retail Industrial 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Source: RCA
- 16. 16
- 17. 17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Banks CMBS Life Cos Other
- 20. 20
- 21. 21
- 22. 22