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Boston Security
Conference
Attacker Behavioral
Analysis
2014
INFORMATION SECURITY
IS A GAME
Remove the Threat
REMEDIATION
Accept the Risk
Repair the Vulnerability
C(ommon) V(ulnerability) S(coring) S(ystem)
“CVSS is designed to rank information
system vulnerabilities”
Exploitability/Temporal (Likelihood)
Impact/Environmental (Severity)
The Good: Open, Standardized Scores
F1: Data Fundamentalism
Since 2006 Vulnerabilities have declined by 26 percent.” http://
csrc.nist.gov/groups/SNS/rbac/documents/vulnerability-trends10.pdf
The total number of vulnerabilities in 2013 is up 16 percent so far
when compared to what we saw in the same time period in 2012.
”
http://www.symantec.com/content/en/us/enterprise/other_resources/b-
intelligence_report_06-2013.en-us.pdf
FAIL 2: A Priori Modeling
“Following up my previous email, I have tweaked my equation to
try to achieve better separation between adjacent scores and to
have CCC have a perfect (storm) 10 score...There is probably a
way to optimize the problem numerically, but doing trial and error
gives one plausible set of parameters...except that the scores of
9.21 and 9.54 are still too close together. I can adjust x.3 and x.7
to get a better separation . . .”
F3: Stochastic Ignorance
Attackers Change
Tactics Daily
Repair the Vulnerability
I LOVE IT WHEN YOU CALL ME BIG DATA
150,000,000 LIVE VULNERABILITIES
1,500,000 ASSETS
2,000 ORGANIZATIONS
100,000,000
BREACHES
I LOVE IT WHEN YOU CALL ME BIG DATA
ATTACKERS CHANGE
TACTICS DAILY
WE CARE ABOUT
VULNERABILITIES
BREACHES
BY CVE
2014
2014
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ATTACKERS DON’T CARE
WHEN YOUR VULN WAS
PUBLISHED
HEARTBLEED
SHELLSHOCK
HEARTBLEED
SHELLSHOCK
HEARTBLEED
POODLE
ATTACKERS DON’T CARE
ABOUT YOUR VULN’S
LOGO
BREACHES
by CVSS
CVSS
by
BREACH
VOLUME
+CVE
CWE
DEADLY SOFTWARE SINS:
1. ACCESS CONTROL
2. INPUT VALIDATION
3. BUFFER OVERFLOW
4. INJECTION
5. BAD CRYPTO
CVSS AS A BREACH VOLUME
PREDICTOR:
ATTACKERS DON’T CARE
ABOUT CVSS
WE CARE ABOUT
VULNERABILITIES
ATTACKERS CARE ABOUT
BREACHES
CVEs
OVER
TIME
CVEs
OVER
TIME(normalized)
Probability A Vuln Having Property X Has Observed Breaches
RandomVuln
CVSS 10
Exploit DB
Metasploit
MSP+EDB
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
DATA RULES EVERYTHING AROUND ME
RANDOM = 2%
CVSS 10 = 4%
METASPLOIT + EXPLOITDB =
30%
RISK.IO/JOBS
@mroytman

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