Every month, Atradius brings you an up to the minute snapshot report on a range of export markets and key trade sectors. Our underwriters have a specialist view of the world economy – and the industries that make that economy tick - that you won’t find in the general press coverage of events.
Even more importantly, our underwriters use their expertise and experience to look to the future. In each edition of Atradius Market Monitor you’ll find our outlook for a number of key market economies.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
The Netherlands – with a spotlight on construction and transport industry sectors
Spain – with a spotlight on construction and automotive industry sectors
United States of America
Belgium
Austria
Ireland
Poland
Indonesia
The immediate outlook for key markets and sectors
Every month, Atradius brings you an up to the minute snapshot report on a range of export markets and key trade sectors. Our underwriters have a specialist view of the world economy – and the industries that make that economy tick - that you won’t find in the general press coverage of events.
Even more importantly, our underwriters use their expertise and experience to look to the future. In each edition of Atradius Market Monitor you’ll find our outlook for a number of key market economies.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
Italy – with a spotlight on the metals and textiles sectors
Switzerland – with a spotlight on the banking and automotive sectors
Sweden
Hungary
Russia
Canada
China
Australia
This document provides an overview of macroeconomic trends and business investment in Europe. It discusses how the recovery is gaining traction across most European economies, but challenges remain like low inflation and lack of credit for small businesses. While austerity has hampered growth, the ECB has implemented stimulus measures to boost lending and exports. Individual countries also need structural reforms. Europe remains attractive for business due to political stability, open trade policies, and a skilled workforce, though emerging markets present more opportunities for growth.
Etude PwC IPO Watch 2013-2014 (mars 2014)PwC France
http://pwc.to/1oz8ppo
L’étude IPO Watch de PwC révèle que des opérations se préparent au premier semestre 2014 dans le secteur de la distribution et de la consommation. D’autre part, les privatisations devraient augmenter : certaines banques européennes renflouées pourraient être partiellement privatisées au travers d'introductions en bourse.
The document identifies four economies - Poland, Australia, South Korea, and Canada - as potential pockets of opportunity for businesses given their strengths in key conditions for growth. Poland benefits from open access to EU and Russian markets. Australia has a very stable business environment and continued demand for natural resources. South Korea invests heavily in R&D and has a skilled workforce supporting technology sector growth. Canada is energy secure with high renewable energy use, making it less sensitive to energy price changes. These economies are projected to grow substantially faster than the Eurozone over the next five years, outpacing their regional peers.
http://pwc.to/1h2j3Bg
De nombreuses économies émergentes sont en train de perdre leur élan, contestant les plans de croissance des entreprises internationales. Nous avons identifié quatre économies qui pourraient fournir aux entreprises une protection contre un ralentissement.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The dutch economy in 2013 outlooks, problems and solutionsPeterMachielse
The document discusses the Dutch economy in 2013, including outlooks from various organizations, current problems, and solutions. Major institutions like the CPB and DNB predict modest economic growth of 0.75% or a contraction of -0.6%. However, the Dutch economy faces issues like high public debt from the financial crisis, declining consumption from government spending cuts, and vulnerabilities from its reliance on exports. Solutions proposed include fiscal restraint, flexibility in the labor market, and investing in emerging markets to boost exports.
The economic outlook for Europe has significantly improved compared to one year ago. The region is expected to see modest GDP growth in 2014 as the recovery takes hold. Unemployment and debt levels are decreasing while business and consumer confidence are rising. However, challenges remain including high youth unemployment, the risk of deflation, and political uncertainty in large economies like France and Italy that could hamper reform efforts.
The immediate outlook for key markets and sectors
Every month, Atradius brings you an up to the minute snapshot report on a range of export markets and key trade sectors. Our underwriters have a specialist view of the world economy – and the industries that make that economy tick - that you won’t find in the general press coverage of events.
Even more importantly, our underwriters use their expertise and experience to look to the future. In each edition of Atradius Market Monitor you’ll find our outlook for a number of key market economies.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
Italy – with a spotlight on the metals and textiles sectors
Switzerland – with a spotlight on the banking and automotive sectors
Sweden
Hungary
Russia
Canada
China
Australia
This document provides an overview of macroeconomic trends and business investment in Europe. It discusses how the recovery is gaining traction across most European economies, but challenges remain like low inflation and lack of credit for small businesses. While austerity has hampered growth, the ECB has implemented stimulus measures to boost lending and exports. Individual countries also need structural reforms. Europe remains attractive for business due to political stability, open trade policies, and a skilled workforce, though emerging markets present more opportunities for growth.
Etude PwC IPO Watch 2013-2014 (mars 2014)PwC France
http://pwc.to/1oz8ppo
L’étude IPO Watch de PwC révèle que des opérations se préparent au premier semestre 2014 dans le secteur de la distribution et de la consommation. D’autre part, les privatisations devraient augmenter : certaines banques européennes renflouées pourraient être partiellement privatisées au travers d'introductions en bourse.
The document identifies four economies - Poland, Australia, South Korea, and Canada - as potential pockets of opportunity for businesses given their strengths in key conditions for growth. Poland benefits from open access to EU and Russian markets. Australia has a very stable business environment and continued demand for natural resources. South Korea invests heavily in R&D and has a skilled workforce supporting technology sector growth. Canada is energy secure with high renewable energy use, making it less sensitive to energy price changes. These economies are projected to grow substantially faster than the Eurozone over the next five years, outpacing their regional peers.
http://pwc.to/1h2j3Bg
De nombreuses économies émergentes sont en train de perdre leur élan, contestant les plans de croissance des entreprises internationales. Nous avons identifié quatre économies qui pourraient fournir aux entreprises une protection contre un ralentissement.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The dutch economy in 2013 outlooks, problems and solutionsPeterMachielse
The document discusses the Dutch economy in 2013, including outlooks from various organizations, current problems, and solutions. Major institutions like the CPB and DNB predict modest economic growth of 0.75% or a contraction of -0.6%. However, the Dutch economy faces issues like high public debt from the financial crisis, declining consumption from government spending cuts, and vulnerabilities from its reliance on exports. Solutions proposed include fiscal restraint, flexibility in the labor market, and investing in emerging markets to boost exports.
The economic outlook for Europe has significantly improved compared to one year ago. The region is expected to see modest GDP growth in 2014 as the recovery takes hold. Unemployment and debt levels are decreasing while business and consumer confidence are rising. However, challenges remain including high youth unemployment, the risk of deflation, and political uncertainty in large economies like France and Italy that could hamper reform efforts.
Economic and policy implications of greater global integration OECD Economic ...OECD, Economics Department
The document discusses how economic integration has increased globally since the 1990s through greater trade, financial, and supply chain links. While this has boosted living standards, it has also amplified the transmission of external shocks across borders. As a result, domestic policies need to take more account of external factors, and collective, multilateral policy responses are important to address common challenges and mitigate spillover risks from external shocks. Strengthening domestic resilience and maintaining open, rules-based international cooperation are also key to managing the implications of deepening global integration.
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres
There are multiple factors behind Sterling’s collapse in the past fortnight to decade lows and the question remains whether these factors will reverse any time soon.
At the top of the pyramid of causes for Sterling’s demise, in my view, is not the UK’s large current account deficit or Bank of England (BoE) policy but the stance on EU membership which Prime Minister Theresa May has adopted.
So while Sterling’s greater competitiveness may eventually drive FX inflows into the UK and help Sterling to recover, financial markets and investors are likely to continue to take their cue from the British government near-term.
Simply put, if Theresa May continues down of the path of “Hard Brexit”, however ill-defined, Sterling is likely to remain under pressure.
However, history shows that while EU leaders have a tendency to drag their feet over key issues, they are able and willing to eventually find some kind of compromise.
Moreover, Theresa May will be subject to the will of her own Conservative Party – which on the whole supports membership of the UK or at least a softer form of exit from the EU – and of the people.
While the BoE would prefer a more stable currency and lower yields, there is probably little than it can (or should) do near-term beyond trying to reassure markets, investors and households.
- Germany has had a record current account surplus of 7.5% of GDP in 2014, reflecting weak domestic demand growth of just 0.4% per year from 2012-2014.
- Weak wage growth and high household savings have caused private consumption to fall as a share of GDP, weakening business investment despite strong corporate profits.
- Germany's large surpluses are not in its own interest and pose an obstacle to economic recovery in Europe, as they require other countries to take on more debt to import German exports. Policy changes are needed to boost German domestic demand and reduce its surplus.
This document summarizes the Deloitte Central Europe Top 500 report for 2013. It provides an overview of the key findings of the report, which ranks the largest 500 companies across 18 Central European countries by revenue. The main points are:
- Revenue growth for the Top 500 companies slowed in 2012, with average revenue growth of 3.3% compared to 9.8% in 2011.
- Ukrainian energy company DTEK had the biggest rise in the ranking, moving from 32nd to 7th place due to several acquisitions.
- The consumer business and transportation industry had the most companies represented at 158, but the energy and resources industry generated the most revenue at 42%.
- Poland had the most
This document analyzes company insolvencies in Western Europe and whether the economic recovery has led to a lasting reduction. It finds that business failures decreased in 10 of 12 countries studied due to cyclical factors like falling oil prices and quantitative easing, though risks remain. Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands are forecast to see the largest drops (-20%, -16%, and -21%), while insolvencies may rise in Italy and Norway (+7% and +6%). The recovery has been insufficient in Italy and Norway's dependence on oil has hurt it.
The IMF staff report provides an assessment of the Italian economy following discussions with government officials in June 2014. Key points include:
- Italy's economy is struggling to emerge from a prolonged recession, with GDP contracting in the first half of 2014 and investment continuing to decline. Unemployment remains high at 12.3% while inflation has dropped to 0.4%.
- Financial conditions have eased due to reduced sovereign spreads but remain tight, with high real lending rates continuing to weigh on domestic demand and investment.
- Deep-rooted structural reforms are needed to boost productivity and potential growth, including reforms to the labor market, judicial system, and measures to strengthen the business environment and combat corruption.
- Re
Global economic growth is projected to be around 4% in the coming years, supported by recovering investment and trade. However, risks remain from rising oil prices, trade tensions, and high private sector debt levels in some countries. Unemployment rates are falling in many advanced economies but there is still room to increase labor force participation. Inflation is expected to rise moderately. The document recommends countries boost skills development, digital infrastructure investment, and reduce barriers to business dynamism. It also suggests using fiscal policy reforms like cutting taxes for low-income workers to make growth more inclusive.
Informe elaborado por Roy Davidson para EIBTM sustentado en el análisis de estudios y encuestas realizadas en nuestro sector a nivel mundial. La conclusión en el 2013: optimismo moderado.
Quarter after quarter, we will invite local experts in different fields of economy and ask them to present their individual, professional take on the current situation in CEE region, and to share their hopes and expectations. Our goal is to collect a varied array of thoughts and commentaries on the CEE economy that will serve as a kaleidoscopic record of market reality, rather than be a periodic, data-centred analysis. We believe that in this way we can help build a more relatable and engaging platform for dialogue, which will also go beyond the pages of this publication.
This document discusses Vinciplay, a Polish playground equipment manufacturer, exploring further internationalization opportunities. It provides an overview of Vinciplay and the playground industry, then analyzes potential new markets through phases of identification and selection. Germany and the US are selected for deeper analysis, considering economic indicators and 5 forces analyses. The document recommends partnering with construction companies and municipalities, and explores public-private partnerships and questions for potential partners to support market entry.
As a result of the financial crisis and global recession public debt burdens have risen to critical levels in a number of Western European countries. Emergency loans from the EU and IMF have eased funding pressures, but have only bought the region time; painful fiscal adjustment and an improvement in competitiveness is required if the region is to enjoy a sustainable recovery.
Eastern Europe, while rebounding through exports and industrial output, will underperform its emerging-market peers in 2010. Business and consumer sentiment in the region is fragile, and its currency and bond markets are vulnerable to contagion from problems in the euro zone or a rise in risk aversion more broadly.
This presentation takes a look at the economic outlook for both Western and Eastern Europe.
This document summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of free trade agreements (FTAs) according to an analysis of economic data from European Union countries. It finds that while FTAs aim to increase trade and economic growth, they can also lead to issues like rising unemployment, loss of domestic industry competitiveness, economic instability from global market dependencies, and reductions in government tax revenues. The analysis of EU country data shows that increased exports did not necessarily reduce unemployment as expected, and that FTAs may not be the best option for developing countries facing challenges funding government programs.
1) The author upgrades European equities to Overweight due to improved political and economic conditions in Europe. Political risk has receded following centrist election victories in France and improving economic data across major European countries.
2) Earnings growth in Europe has surprised to the upside, with revenues and earnings growing around 9% and 20% respectively in the recent reporting season, well above comparable US growth. However, European stock valuations remain attractive relative to US stocks.
3) Key factors that could further improve the European investment case include ongoing economic improvements, ECB maintaining accommodative monetary policy, and stability in bond markets and inflation. Political risks remain from the Italian elections.
This document provides an overview of Bulgaria and its economy. Some key points:
- Bulgaria has a population of 7.3 million people and its currency is the lev, which is pegged to the euro. It has been a member of NATO and the EU since 2004 and 2007 respectively.
- Bulgaria has a well-educated workforce, low costs of doing business including favorable tax rates and rents, and a strategic location providing access to key European and Middle Eastern markets.
- The economy has grown in recent years and outperformed the EU average. Unemployment is decreasing and inflation is low. The government maintains fiscal discipline with a low debt level.
- Major industries include manufacturing, trade, mining, and tourism
The Deloitte M&A Index is a forward-looking indicator that forecasts future global M&A deal volumes and identifies the factors influencing conditions for dealmaking.
US lead the M&A surge, but confidence hits European dealmakersDeloitte UK
The document discusses trends in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity globally and regionally in Q3 2015. Key points include:
- M&A activity in the first half of 2015 was one of the strongest on record, driven by a surge in US deals fueled by economic factors.
- However, political and currency risks in Europe are weakening confidence for M&A deals among European companies.
- The document predicts that overall M&A activity will remain similar to Q2 levels in Q3 based on these factors.
Monetary policy review rbi july 2013 0 md317c83c123arjunarikeri
The document discusses recent macroeconomic developments in India during the first quarter of 2012-13. Some key points:
1) Economic growth in India slowed to a 29-quarter low of 5.3% in Q4 of 2011-12 and has likely remained weak in Q1 of 2012-13, with risks to growth increasing from the global slowdown, domestic supply constraints, and a poor monsoon.
2) Inflation has remained persistent, with both wholesale and retail inflation remaining above target levels, posing a challenge for monetary policy.
3) The current account deficit remains large and financing it is difficult given slowing capital inflows, though lower oil prices may provide some relief. External debt is rising
According to a report by Swedbank's Economic Research Department:
- Estonia's GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2011, down from 8.5% in the previous quarter, due to a decline in export growth.
- While domestic demand continued strengthening in the fourth quarter, contributing 7.7% to overall growth, net exports were negative for the second consecutive quarter as import growth exceeded export growth.
- The report forecasts Estonia's economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2012, supported by domestic demand, with investment growth driven by public sector projects and private sector investment expected to increase more in 2013.
Technology, Business Services, Industrials, Financial Services and Transportation & Logistics were the most active sectors, accounting for 65% of total deal volume.
The document discusses the state of European economies in January 2009 and August 2010. It summarizes that the European Commission raised its 2010 GDP growth forecasts for the EU and eurozone to 1.8% and 1.7% respectively, driven by strong export growth in Germany. However, growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year as the global economy hits a soft patch. Unemployment rates remain elevated across Europe.
You’ll see from the reports in this edition of Market Monitor that, while there are tentative signs of
economic stabilisation, these are tempered by indicators that still advise caution for future trade.
Germany has recorded positive growth since the summer, but we still expect bank lending to
continue to decline. Spain, in contrast, records negative growth forecasts for the short- and mid-term,
but at least our indicators show that the high tide of payment defaults and insolvencies may finally
have peaked. In the UK, however, a turnaround in the rising insolvency trend is still not in sight, and
the troubled construction sector is forecast to continue to suffer into 2010. That said, the car
scrappage scheme, which started later than in many other countries, will provide some cushion for
the automotive sector in the coming six months.
Against this background, we continue to urge caution, not just when embarking on new trading
ventures, but also in trade with established customers. Essentially, businesses need to tread more
carefully in ALL their sales transactions – monitoring changes in the payment behaviour of current
customers and taking extra care in assessing the financial strength of new prospects.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
United Kingdom – with a spotlight on the construction and automotive sectors
Mexico – with a spotlight on the retail and chemicals sectors
Germany
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Czech Republic
Every month, Atradius brings you an up to the minute snapshot report on a range of export markets and key trade sectors. Our underwriters have a specialist view of the world economy – and the
industries that make that economy tick - that you won’t find in the general press coverage of events.
Even more importantly, our underwriters use their expertise and experience to look to the future. In each edition of Atradius Market Monitor you’ll find our outlook for a number of key market economies.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
The United Kingdom – with a spotlight on the metals and automotive sectors
Mexico – with a spotlight on manufacturing, construction and retail
Germany
Spain
Denmark
Greece
Portugal
South Africa
Economic and policy implications of greater global integration OECD Economic ...OECD, Economics Department
The document discusses how economic integration has increased globally since the 1990s through greater trade, financial, and supply chain links. While this has boosted living standards, it has also amplified the transmission of external shocks across borders. As a result, domestic policies need to take more account of external factors, and collective, multilateral policy responses are important to address common challenges and mitigate spillover risks from external shocks. Strengthening domestic resilience and maintaining open, rules-based international cooperation are also key to managing the implications of deepening global integration.
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres
There are multiple factors behind Sterling’s collapse in the past fortnight to decade lows and the question remains whether these factors will reverse any time soon.
At the top of the pyramid of causes for Sterling’s demise, in my view, is not the UK’s large current account deficit or Bank of England (BoE) policy but the stance on EU membership which Prime Minister Theresa May has adopted.
So while Sterling’s greater competitiveness may eventually drive FX inflows into the UK and help Sterling to recover, financial markets and investors are likely to continue to take their cue from the British government near-term.
Simply put, if Theresa May continues down of the path of “Hard Brexit”, however ill-defined, Sterling is likely to remain under pressure.
However, history shows that while EU leaders have a tendency to drag their feet over key issues, they are able and willing to eventually find some kind of compromise.
Moreover, Theresa May will be subject to the will of her own Conservative Party – which on the whole supports membership of the UK or at least a softer form of exit from the EU – and of the people.
While the BoE would prefer a more stable currency and lower yields, there is probably little than it can (or should) do near-term beyond trying to reassure markets, investors and households.
- Germany has had a record current account surplus of 7.5% of GDP in 2014, reflecting weak domestic demand growth of just 0.4% per year from 2012-2014.
- Weak wage growth and high household savings have caused private consumption to fall as a share of GDP, weakening business investment despite strong corporate profits.
- Germany's large surpluses are not in its own interest and pose an obstacle to economic recovery in Europe, as they require other countries to take on more debt to import German exports. Policy changes are needed to boost German domestic demand and reduce its surplus.
This document summarizes the Deloitte Central Europe Top 500 report for 2013. It provides an overview of the key findings of the report, which ranks the largest 500 companies across 18 Central European countries by revenue. The main points are:
- Revenue growth for the Top 500 companies slowed in 2012, with average revenue growth of 3.3% compared to 9.8% in 2011.
- Ukrainian energy company DTEK had the biggest rise in the ranking, moving from 32nd to 7th place due to several acquisitions.
- The consumer business and transportation industry had the most companies represented at 158, but the energy and resources industry generated the most revenue at 42%.
- Poland had the most
This document analyzes company insolvencies in Western Europe and whether the economic recovery has led to a lasting reduction. It finds that business failures decreased in 10 of 12 countries studied due to cyclical factors like falling oil prices and quantitative easing, though risks remain. Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands are forecast to see the largest drops (-20%, -16%, and -21%), while insolvencies may rise in Italy and Norway (+7% and +6%). The recovery has been insufficient in Italy and Norway's dependence on oil has hurt it.
The IMF staff report provides an assessment of the Italian economy following discussions with government officials in June 2014. Key points include:
- Italy's economy is struggling to emerge from a prolonged recession, with GDP contracting in the first half of 2014 and investment continuing to decline. Unemployment remains high at 12.3% while inflation has dropped to 0.4%.
- Financial conditions have eased due to reduced sovereign spreads but remain tight, with high real lending rates continuing to weigh on domestic demand and investment.
- Deep-rooted structural reforms are needed to boost productivity and potential growth, including reforms to the labor market, judicial system, and measures to strengthen the business environment and combat corruption.
- Re
Global economic growth is projected to be around 4% in the coming years, supported by recovering investment and trade. However, risks remain from rising oil prices, trade tensions, and high private sector debt levels in some countries. Unemployment rates are falling in many advanced economies but there is still room to increase labor force participation. Inflation is expected to rise moderately. The document recommends countries boost skills development, digital infrastructure investment, and reduce barriers to business dynamism. It also suggests using fiscal policy reforms like cutting taxes for low-income workers to make growth more inclusive.
Informe elaborado por Roy Davidson para EIBTM sustentado en el análisis de estudios y encuestas realizadas en nuestro sector a nivel mundial. La conclusión en el 2013: optimismo moderado.
Quarter after quarter, we will invite local experts in different fields of economy and ask them to present their individual, professional take on the current situation in CEE region, and to share their hopes and expectations. Our goal is to collect a varied array of thoughts and commentaries on the CEE economy that will serve as a kaleidoscopic record of market reality, rather than be a periodic, data-centred analysis. We believe that in this way we can help build a more relatable and engaging platform for dialogue, which will also go beyond the pages of this publication.
This document discusses Vinciplay, a Polish playground equipment manufacturer, exploring further internationalization opportunities. It provides an overview of Vinciplay and the playground industry, then analyzes potential new markets through phases of identification and selection. Germany and the US are selected for deeper analysis, considering economic indicators and 5 forces analyses. The document recommends partnering with construction companies and municipalities, and explores public-private partnerships and questions for potential partners to support market entry.
As a result of the financial crisis and global recession public debt burdens have risen to critical levels in a number of Western European countries. Emergency loans from the EU and IMF have eased funding pressures, but have only bought the region time; painful fiscal adjustment and an improvement in competitiveness is required if the region is to enjoy a sustainable recovery.
Eastern Europe, while rebounding through exports and industrial output, will underperform its emerging-market peers in 2010. Business and consumer sentiment in the region is fragile, and its currency and bond markets are vulnerable to contagion from problems in the euro zone or a rise in risk aversion more broadly.
This presentation takes a look at the economic outlook for both Western and Eastern Europe.
This document summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of free trade agreements (FTAs) according to an analysis of economic data from European Union countries. It finds that while FTAs aim to increase trade and economic growth, they can also lead to issues like rising unemployment, loss of domestic industry competitiveness, economic instability from global market dependencies, and reductions in government tax revenues. The analysis of EU country data shows that increased exports did not necessarily reduce unemployment as expected, and that FTAs may not be the best option for developing countries facing challenges funding government programs.
1) The author upgrades European equities to Overweight due to improved political and economic conditions in Europe. Political risk has receded following centrist election victories in France and improving economic data across major European countries.
2) Earnings growth in Europe has surprised to the upside, with revenues and earnings growing around 9% and 20% respectively in the recent reporting season, well above comparable US growth. However, European stock valuations remain attractive relative to US stocks.
3) Key factors that could further improve the European investment case include ongoing economic improvements, ECB maintaining accommodative monetary policy, and stability in bond markets and inflation. Political risks remain from the Italian elections.
This document provides an overview of Bulgaria and its economy. Some key points:
- Bulgaria has a population of 7.3 million people and its currency is the lev, which is pegged to the euro. It has been a member of NATO and the EU since 2004 and 2007 respectively.
- Bulgaria has a well-educated workforce, low costs of doing business including favorable tax rates and rents, and a strategic location providing access to key European and Middle Eastern markets.
- The economy has grown in recent years and outperformed the EU average. Unemployment is decreasing and inflation is low. The government maintains fiscal discipline with a low debt level.
- Major industries include manufacturing, trade, mining, and tourism
The Deloitte M&A Index is a forward-looking indicator that forecasts future global M&A deal volumes and identifies the factors influencing conditions for dealmaking.
US lead the M&A surge, but confidence hits European dealmakersDeloitte UK
The document discusses trends in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity globally and regionally in Q3 2015. Key points include:
- M&A activity in the first half of 2015 was one of the strongest on record, driven by a surge in US deals fueled by economic factors.
- However, political and currency risks in Europe are weakening confidence for M&A deals among European companies.
- The document predicts that overall M&A activity will remain similar to Q2 levels in Q3 based on these factors.
Monetary policy review rbi july 2013 0 md317c83c123arjunarikeri
The document discusses recent macroeconomic developments in India during the first quarter of 2012-13. Some key points:
1) Economic growth in India slowed to a 29-quarter low of 5.3% in Q4 of 2011-12 and has likely remained weak in Q1 of 2012-13, with risks to growth increasing from the global slowdown, domestic supply constraints, and a poor monsoon.
2) Inflation has remained persistent, with both wholesale and retail inflation remaining above target levels, posing a challenge for monetary policy.
3) The current account deficit remains large and financing it is difficult given slowing capital inflows, though lower oil prices may provide some relief. External debt is rising
According to a report by Swedbank's Economic Research Department:
- Estonia's GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2011, down from 8.5% in the previous quarter, due to a decline in export growth.
- While domestic demand continued strengthening in the fourth quarter, contributing 7.7% to overall growth, net exports were negative for the second consecutive quarter as import growth exceeded export growth.
- The report forecasts Estonia's economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2012, supported by domestic demand, with investment growth driven by public sector projects and private sector investment expected to increase more in 2013.
Technology, Business Services, Industrials, Financial Services and Transportation & Logistics were the most active sectors, accounting for 65% of total deal volume.
The document discusses the state of European economies in January 2009 and August 2010. It summarizes that the European Commission raised its 2010 GDP growth forecasts for the EU and eurozone to 1.8% and 1.7% respectively, driven by strong export growth in Germany. However, growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year as the global economy hits a soft patch. Unemployment rates remain elevated across Europe.
You’ll see from the reports in this edition of Market Monitor that, while there are tentative signs of
economic stabilisation, these are tempered by indicators that still advise caution for future trade.
Germany has recorded positive growth since the summer, but we still expect bank lending to
continue to decline. Spain, in contrast, records negative growth forecasts for the short- and mid-term,
but at least our indicators show that the high tide of payment defaults and insolvencies may finally
have peaked. In the UK, however, a turnaround in the rising insolvency trend is still not in sight, and
the troubled construction sector is forecast to continue to suffer into 2010. That said, the car
scrappage scheme, which started later than in many other countries, will provide some cushion for
the automotive sector in the coming six months.
Against this background, we continue to urge caution, not just when embarking on new trading
ventures, but also in trade with established customers. Essentially, businesses need to tread more
carefully in ALL their sales transactions – monitoring changes in the payment behaviour of current
customers and taking extra care in assessing the financial strength of new prospects.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
United Kingdom – with a spotlight on the construction and automotive sectors
Mexico – with a spotlight on the retail and chemicals sectors
Germany
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Czech Republic
Every month, Atradius brings you an up to the minute snapshot report on a range of export markets and key trade sectors. Our underwriters have a specialist view of the world economy – and the
industries that make that economy tick - that you won’t find in the general press coverage of events.
Even more importantly, our underwriters use their expertise and experience to look to the future. In each edition of Atradius Market Monitor you’ll find our outlook for a number of key market economies.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
The United Kingdom – with a spotlight on the metals and automotive sectors
Mexico – with a spotlight on manufacturing, construction and retail
Germany
Spain
Denmark
Greece
Portugal
South Africa
Strong Mail Presentation Big Ten It Conf July 2009Chris Harper
1) The document discusses Michigan State University's implementation of StrongMail as a dynamic email delivery platform. It replaced outdated systems and allows for customized email content based on subscriber preferences.
2) Key tasks included migrating the weekly MSU News email to StrongMail, allowing subscribers to select content categories, and making StrongMail available for other university departments to use.
3) StrongMail connects to MSU's content database and uses XML/XSLT to dynamically generate personalized emails for each subscriber based on the stories and their chosen categories.
Kemajuan teknologi dalam bidang audio dan video telah memungkinkan penggunaan sumber-sumber tersebut secara meluas. Antara faktor yang menyebabkan berlaku penggunaan sumber-sumber audio dan video secara meluas adalah kebolehan untuk mengubahkannya dalam bentuk digital.
RHIEM is an innovative leader in marketing logistics that offers marketing execution, packaging, warehousing, fulfillment, and e-commerce services. It was founded in 1958 and has transformed to focus on customer intimacy and operational excellence. RHIEM takes care of creating marketing materials and packaging as well as storing, assembling, and fulfilling products for brands. Its goal is to be a trustworthy and fast source for managing supply chains and producing collateral through understanding customers and seamlessly delivering accurate and fast products.
While the world’s economic problems continue, it is essential that we provide our customers with timely information about key markets with which they may be trading or considering future trade.
Our monthly Market Monitor can also help them to understand the risk management measures we are taking as a credit insurer.
The September edition of the Market Monitor is now available on the Atradius intranet and internet. This issue, available in English, Dutch, German, French and Italian - includes coverage of the current business and insolvency environment of the following countries:
Italy – spotlighting on the ICT and food sectors
Australia – spotlighting on the mining and construction sectors
France
Switzerland
Sweden
China
India
In July 2009, the median Expected Default Frequency (EDF) of nearly all major Western economies dropped again compared to the previous month. This may suggest that the perception of risk has declined. However, at best it can only be described as a gradual reversal of the spike that followed Lehman´s failure last year.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
USA – with a spotlight on the chemicals and metals sectors
Belgium – with a spotlight on the construction and automotive/transport sectors
The Netherlands
Finland
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Romania
Atradius Collections sees a marked increase in its caseload
This issue, available in English, Dutch, and German (French, Italian, and Spanish will follow soon) - includes coverage of the current business and insolvency environment of the following countries:
The Netherlands – spotlighting on the metals and retail sectors
Ireland – spotlighting on the construction and retail sectors
USA
Belgium
Poland
Singapore
Chile
The Expected Default Frequency for all the major Western economies again decreased slightly in June. This may suggest that the perception of risk has declined. However, at best it can only be described as a gradual reversal of the spike that followed Lehman´s failure last year.
Resumen humildad y liderazgo guillermo leonel sánchez hernándezgusanchez2668
En 3 oraciones:
La lectura discute cómo la humildad es una cualidad esencial para el liderazgo efectivo. Un líder humilde se conoce a sí mismo, sabe escuchar a los demás, y sirve a su equipo en lugar de buscar el poder o la preponderancia. El autor también contrasta diferentes estilos de liderazgo, señalando que el liderazgo basado en la colaboración y la inclusión es más efectivo que uno basado en la competencia o jerarquía.
RHIEM is a top European provider of marketing supply chain services specializing in high quality production and packaging solutions. They offer a full portfolio of services including marketing support, production, kitting and assembly, warehousing and fulfillment, distribution, e-commerce solutions, and reverse logistics. RHIEM aims to fully integrate with clients' business processes to relieve their burden and ensure products are delivered with perfection, speed, and reliability.
The immediate outlook for key markets and sectors
Every month, Atradius brings you an up to the minute snapshot report on a range of export markets and key trade sectors. Our underwriters have a specialist view of the world economy – and the
industries that make that economy tick - that you won’t find in the general press coverage of events.
Even more importantly, our underwriters use their expertise and experience to look to the future. In each edition of Atradius Market Monitor you’ll find our outlook for a number of key market economies.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
France – with a spotlight on the household appliances and dairy sectors
Austria – with a spotlight on the paper and timber sectors
Italy
Norway
Canada
New Zealand
Brazil
Japan
Special: Atradius Collections - Keep your cash flow healthy
The document summarizes trends in venture capital investing according to Ethan Kurzweil of Bessemer Venture Partners. It discusses signs of hope in the second quarter of 2009 and rising numbers of first-time financings. Hot areas of investment include energy, internet, mobile, social gaming and software as a service. The presentation provides tips for startups on using social media as a sales force, outsourcing tasks, minimalist design, understanding customers, and not needing offices. It also notes that failure is an option and that web development costs are decreasing rapidly.
Panoramica sull’economia, sul mercato assicurativo e sul business dei Lloyd’s...Fabrizio Callarà
This document provides an overview of key facts, statistics, business environment, insurance environment, and Lloyd's business in Italy. Some of the key points include:
- Italy has a population of 61 million and GDP of $1,845 billion, with main exports being engineering products, textiles, and machinery.
- The non-life insurance market totaled $50.7 billion in 2011, with motor insurance making up 57% of the market.
- The economy contracted in 2012 and is projected to continue contracting in 2013, with household spending expected to remain subdued.
- Major challenges for the insurance sector include the dominance of motor business and low limits/risk retention, though premiums are growing faster
The global economy is expanding more slowly than expected, with problems including slumping markets, high sovereign debt, and public bond defaults. While Europe's recovery is also facing headwinds, the region has seen unexpectedly strong earnings growth from companies. Momentum in Europe is being driven by a declining euro boosting exports, lower oil prices fueling consumer spending, and stimulus from the European Central Bank. However, structural issues like high unemployment and debt levels remain challenges. The document examines opportunities in specific European companies and warns that some municipal bonds like Puerto Rico's appropriation bonds are riskier than others due to their repayment structure being subject to political discretion over funding.
Italy has the ninth largest economy in the world with a GDP of approximately €1.48 trillion. The Italian economy is expected to contract by 1.8% in 2013 and grow by only 0.2% in 2014. Business confidence remains fragile in Italy, with just 16% of businesses expecting revenue to increase in the next 12 months. Economic uncertainty, bureaucracy, and low demand are constraining business expansion. Restoring competitiveness is a challenge as Italian businesses have been slower to lower costs than Spain.
The document discusses opportunities in the Italian non-performing loan (NPL) market. Key points:
1) Prime Minister Renzi's reforms aim to improve the Italian economy by rewriting labor laws and improving bureaucracy, which should support the real estate market.
2) Italian banks have a large inventory of non-performing loans (NPLs) and little capacity to manage them, so banks are motivated to sell their NPLs.
3) Certain parts of the Italian real estate market remain distressed even after recovery in other European markets like Spain and Portugal, presenting opportunities for investors.
FDI GermanyName ID no. Unit code and name Lectur.docxssuser454af01
FDI Germany
Name:
ID no.
Unit code and name:
Lecturer name:
Assignment #
Due Date:
Executive Summary
Germany is an established European democracy that has a history of free and fair elections. Germany ranks higher than the United Kingdom with regard to accountability and voice. The labour market in the country is also quite flexible even despite the 2009 financial crisis. Nevertheless, the aging German population places a considerable weight on the healthcare system and the economy. Although the technical workforce in the country may be declining the SMEs in the country are quite innovative. The legal structure in Germany is very comprehensive. However, the country is still plagued by tax evasion. Considering the economic and political might of the country in the Eurozone and the world at large, Germany offers an attractive opportunity for foreign direct investment.
1.0 Introduction
Germany provides foreign investors with exciting international and national business and marketing perspectives. However, the costs are comparatively high. Costs include employment costs as measured using wage rates and social security charges. Therefore, successful foreign direct investment in Germany requires proper planning and sophisticated operation. The German economy represents almost all industries. Like other countries with highly skilled populations, high costs of employment and high-educated workers the best prospects come from providers of commercial, financial and technical services. The industries in Germany are dynamic and firms can expect room for growth. The country provides an equal opportunity to both domestic and foreign companies. It is important to note that the state provides substantial support in form of subsidies in research and development in order to spur the creation of new products. This report aims at presenting the benefits, risks and cost of investing in Germany (Germany Country Profile, 2013).
2.0 Outline
Analysis
Benefits
Risks
Costs
Political system
A strong democracy
A robust federal system
Right-wing extremism
Strained relationship with France
Formulation of EU banking Union
Corruption
Economic system
Highly competitive economy
Flexible labour market
Exposure from the Eurozone debt
Bank failure in the region
Slow foreign trade
Low local consumption
Legal system
Comprehensive legal and regulatory framework
Formal openness to FDI.
Overregulated service sector.
The country’s licensing and permit process is quite cumbersome
The taxation wedge is high.
3.0 Political system
3.1 Benefits
Germany is a stable democracy that has a constitution that stipulates the roles of the legislature, executive and judiciary. The federal government is the top most source of political authority despite that Germany has municipalities and states. The strong federal system has enabled the country to have a centralized rule for the formulation of fiscal, defence, monetary, internal security and legal policies. ...
The major reasons for the recession that hit worldwide especially the US and Eurozone.
The subprime Crises, US housing Crisis with Facts and Figures and The Fix.
Atradius / Credito y Caucion: Market-Monitor-Construction Industry February16Jaime Cubillo Fleming
The document provides an overview of the construction market in several countries. It notes that construction activity decreased 3% in France in 2015 and payment delays remain high, while growth is expected to accelerate to 3% in Germany in 2016, driven by increases in residential and public construction. In Italy, the recession in construction is expected to have bottomed out, but smaller players still face more troubles and banks remain reluctant to lend.
Atradius Market Monitor - February 2016David Wilson
- Construction activity in France decreased 3% in 2015 and faces difficulties due to sluggish economic growth, low household purchasing power, and public budget constraints.
- A modest rebound of 2.5% is expected in 2016, helped by government support for residential construction but non-residential construction is expected to remain subdued.
- Payment delays and insolvencies remained high in 2015, though are not expected to increase further in the first half of 2016. Access to credit remains difficult for many construction businesses.
The document summarizes the key messages about the UK corporate environment as of July 2019. It finds that:
1) Global growth is slowing, particularly in Europe, though UK growth is expected to be 1.2% in 2019 with Brexit risks remaining large.
2) Business investment is declining as uncertainty dampens investment, though household spending is holding up due to strong wage growth.
3) Operating costs are expected to rise due to tight labor markets and wage growth near 11-year highs, while commodity prices are up 12.5% year-to-date.
4) Corporates have the lowest risk appetite since 2008 and are focused on cost reduction and increasing cash flow to strengthen their balance sheets.
http://pwc.to/1h2k2l4
Après cinq années de crise, de récession et de croissance décevante, nous pensons que les pays développés peuvent maintenant approcher de la "vitesse de libération" nécessaire pour une reprise durable.
Ey profit warning stress index q3 2018 7Robert Hussey
For those looking at a UK listing – this is a very insightful piece of research based on EY’s Profits Warning Stress Index. In Q3 2018, the market has experienced the highest average share price fall since the financial crisis. 206 earnings downgrades in the first nine months of the year. The Consumer sectors are dominating these earnings downgrades but with domestic and global uncertainty, we are seeing signs of contraction spreading wider a field (industrial and finance sectors). If one combines this with the number of recent IPO’s either being pulled or priced at the lower of the range, a cautionary picture in certainly painted.
UK corporate environment - November 2019Deloitte UK
The document summarizes the UK corporate environment as of November 2019. It finds that (1) global and UK growth are expected to remain soft, weighing on corporate performance, (2) businesses are focusing on cost reduction and increasing cash flow given high uncertainty, and (3) while cash reserves are high, profits have been falling and risks remain from Brexit uncertainty and a potential global economic downturn.
The document discusses several major issues that will impact the global economy and foreign exchange markets in 2020. It notes that global growth is expected to remain soft at around 2.9% for the year. Inflation remains low across both developed and emerging markets. Central banks will continue easing monetary policy and reviewing their inflation targets. China's economy will continue slowing while the risk of recession in the US has decreased. The eurozone economy faces persistent weakness, especially in Germany which is dealing with short-term and structural challenges. France's economy may be more resilient than other EU nations in 2020.
Deloitte Debt & Capital Advisory - Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Autumn 2019DanieleCandiani
- The number of alternative lending deals decreased 3% in the first half of 2019 compared to the previous year, however the average deal value increased, leading to strong growth in overall deployment.
- Direct lenders continue to rapidly increase the amount of capital they have raised, with several managers raising over $5 billion, indicating deployment has kept pace with fundraising.
- While some sectors like manufacturing have shown signs of stress, the overall alternative lending market has remained robust so far, with deployment numbers steady and default rates still low.
Global Powers of Consumer Products 2013Melih ÖZCANLI
Global Powers of Consumer Products 2013
Engaging the connected customer
by Deloitte, 2013
The opportunity for consumer products companies to manage their brands online, engage with consumers at an individual level, and drive sales through digital channels is significant. The question is how to do it well. Take a look at this year's report to see which consumer goods companies are on the Top 250 list. Then keep reading to see what approaches the industry is likely to take to engage this new, digitally empowered consumer.
Find out which companies are where on this year's Top 250 list by downloading the complete report.
Economic and Structural Report August 2008, extract fromSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
1. Global activity easing
2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area
3. China transitioning to slower growth, service economy
4. Central banks pulling back from tightening
5. UK growth dependent on Brexit: exit deal could see GDP growth > 1.0% this year, no deal growth could be < 0.5%
6. Risks to global growth tilting to downside
This presentation considers the possibility of a second recession in the face of the ongoing European Debt Crisis, misguided attempts to address the crisis through austerity and struggling world economies. It also reflects on the impact of the probable break-up of EU’s currency union, measures to avert the scenario and vulnerable positions of the economies of the USA, China and India to more trouble in the Euro-zone.
The doomsday scenario has been summarized by Martin Wolf of Financial Times (May 17, 2012):
“The mechanisms at work would be powerful: bank runs; the imposition of (illegal) exchange controls; legal uncertainties; asset price collapses; unpredictable shifts in balance sheets; freezing of the financial system; disruption of central banking; collapse in spending and trade; and enormous shifts in the exchange rates of new currencies.
.
Getting back to growth: Global powers of the consumer products industry 2011Alfred_angst
The document provides an economic outlook for 2011 for major global consumer markets and issues affecting the consumer products industry. It predicts strong overall global growth led by emerging markets. The US economy is expected to improve in 2011 due to tax cuts and monetary stimulus, but consumer spending will likely remain cautious. Growth in Western Europe will be slow due to fiscal austerity. China is expected to have a soft economic landing with steady consumer spending growth. Commodity prices and currency volatility pose challenges for global consumer companies.
B2B payments are rapidly changing. Find out the 5 key questions you need to be asking yourself to be sure you are mastering B2B payments today. Learn more at www.BlueSnap.com.
Storytelling is an incredibly valuable tool to share data and information. To get the most impact from stories there are a number of key ingredients. These are based on science and human nature. Using these elements in a story you can deliver information impactfully, ensure action and drive change.
Top mailing list providers in the USA.pptxJeremyPeirce1
Discover the top mailing list providers in the USA, offering targeted lists, segmentation, and analytics to optimize your marketing campaigns and drive engagement.
LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024Lital Barkan
Have you ever heard that user-generated content or video testimonials can take your brand to the next level? We will explore how you can effectively use video testimonials to leverage and boost your sales, content strategy, and increase your CRM data.🤯
We will dig deeper into:
1. How to capture video testimonials that convert from your audience 🎥
2. How to leverage your testimonials to boost your sales 💲
3. How you can capture more CRM data to understand your audience better through video testimonials. 📊
How MJ Global Leads the Packaging Industry.pdfMJ Global
MJ Global's success in staying ahead of the curve in the packaging industry is a testament to its dedication to innovation, sustainability, and customer-centricity. By embracing technological advancements, leading in eco-friendly solutions, collaborating with industry leaders, and adapting to evolving consumer preferences, MJ Global continues to set new standards in the packaging sector.
Recruiting in the Digital Age: A Social Media MasterclassLuanWise
In this masterclass, presented at the Global HR Summit on 5th June 2024, Luan Wise explored the essential features of social media platforms that support talent acquisition, including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok.
Unveiling the Dynamic Personalities, Key Dates, and Horoscope Insights: Gemin...my Pandit
Explore the fascinating world of the Gemini Zodiac Sign. Discover the unique personality traits, key dates, and horoscope insights of Gemini individuals. Learn how their sociable, communicative nature and boundless curiosity make them the dynamic explorers of the zodiac. Dive into the duality of the Gemini sign and understand their intellectual and adventurous spirit.
Taurus Zodiac Sign: Unveiling the Traits, Dates, and Horoscope Insights of th...my Pandit
Dive into the steadfast world of the Taurus Zodiac Sign. Discover the grounded, stable, and logical nature of Taurus individuals, and explore their key personality traits, important dates, and horoscope insights. Learn how the determination and patience of the Taurus sign make them the rock-steady achievers and anchors of the zodiac.
buy old yahoo accounts buy yahoo accountsSusan Laney
As a business owner, I understand the importance of having a strong online presence and leveraging various digital platforms to reach and engage with your target audience. One often overlooked yet highly valuable asset in this regard is the humble Yahoo account. While many may perceive Yahoo as a relic of the past, the truth is that these accounts still hold immense potential for businesses of all sizes.
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Best practices for project execution and deliveryCLIVE MINCHIN
A select set of project management best practices to keep your project on-track, on-cost and aligned to scope. Many firms have don't have the necessary skills, diligence, methods and oversight of their projects; this leads to slippage, higher costs and longer timeframes. Often firms have a history of projects that simply failed to move the needle. These best practices will help your firm avoid these pitfalls but they require fortitude to apply.
Part 2 Deep Dive: Navigating the 2024 Slowdownjeffkluth1
Introduction
The global retail industry has weathered numerous storms, with the financial crisis of 2008 serving as a poignant reminder of the sector's resilience and adaptability. However, as we navigate the complex landscape of 2024, retailers face a unique set of challenges that demand innovative strategies and a fundamental shift in mindset. This white paper contrasts the impact of the 2008 recession on the retail sector with the current headwinds retailers are grappling with, while offering a comprehensive roadmap for success in this new paradigm.
Building Your Employer Brand with Social MediaLuanWise
Presented at The Global HR Summit, 6th June 2024
In this keynote, Luan Wise will provide invaluable insights to elevate your employer brand on social media platforms including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok. You'll learn how compelling content can authentically showcase your company culture, values, and employee experiences to support your talent acquisition and retention objectives. Additionally, you'll understand the power of employee advocacy to amplify reach and engagement – helping to position your organization as an employer of choice in today's competitive talent landscape.
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Satta Matka
Feb MarketMonitor
1. marketmonitor
adapting to the challenging
economic environment
February 2009
The immediate outlook for key markets and sectors
Every month, Atradius brings you an up to the minute snapshot report on a range of export markets
and key trade sectors. Our underwriters have a specialist view of the world economy – and the
industries that make that economy tick - that you won’t find in the general press coverage of events,
so we hope that you will find our summary reviews a useful addition to your Atradius credit
insurance.
Even more importantly, our underwriters use their expertise and experience to look to the future. In
each edition of Atradius Market monitor you’ll find our outlook for a number of key market
economies.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
The Netherlands – with a spotlight on construction and transport industry sectors
Spain – with a spotlight on construction and automotive industry sectors
United States of America
Belgium
Austria
Ireland
Poland
Indonesia
1
2. Expected default in Western Europe and USA
One of the most important factors that any business needs to know is the trend of insolvencies in their
markets.
The following Expected Default Frequency (EDF) chart is based on listed companies in the markets referred
to, and the likelihood of default across all sectors within the next year. In this context, default is defined as a
failure to make a scheduled payment, or the initiation of bankruptcy proceedings. Probability of default is
calculated from three factors: market value of a company’s assets, its volatility and its current capital
structure. As a guide, the probability of one firm in a hundred defaulting on payment is shown as 1%
Source: Atradius Economic Research and KMV Credit Monitor
The deteriorating global economic environment translates into an increase in insolvencies. As confirmed by
the EDF indicators, insolvencies are predicted to increase steeply across all major economies in 2009. The
heightened default expectation has been evident since mid-2007 (see chart above). In December 2008, the
median EDF of all major Western economies rose again compared to the previous month, with sharp
increases recorded for France, Italy, the UK and the US. This development suggests an accelerating default
risk for all major Western economies.
On the following pages, we assess the impact of expected default in key
markets
2
3. The Netherlands
The current business environment
With its open economy, the Netherlands is severely affected by the global economic downturn – exports
accounting for 32% of total Dutch GDP. According to CPB, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy
Analysis, it is generally the case that a decline in the world economy of 1% will lead to a 0.3% drop in Dutch
economic growth.
Overall, a contraction of the Dutch economy by 2% is forecast for 2009. In November 2008 the export of
goods dropped by 5% year-on-year – the largest fall for 7 years. Production has decreased to the lowest
level for 25 years with a capacity usage close to 77%, compared to the norm of around 85%. Not surprisingly,
both consumer and producer confidence is at an all time low. However private consumption will probably
remain stable in 2009, as net incomes rise due to tax adjustments and a reduction in the cost of energy.
Unemployment will increase, but the major impact is not expected until 2010 as existing vacancies will be
absorbed in the short term, or shift from the private to the public sector (e.g. health care and education).
Property developers seeking finance for projects and companies with a need for additional working capital
are both faced with a banking sector that is increasingly restrictive in its attitude to lending and credit terms –
despite the government’s supported guarantee system.
The outlook for the Netherlands
The credit crunch has forced companies to focus on reducing the need for working capital by keeping lower
stocks and accumulating cash, while seeking longer terms from their suppliers. Companies that aren’t
successful in doing this will face a liquidity deficit on the short run and possible failure in the longer term.
The level of insolvency is expected to rise sharply in 2009. Since October 2008 the Central Bureau of
Statistics has reported a steep rise of insolvencies: in November alone, limited liability company insolvencies
rose 38% year on year. This situation and outlook is reflected in the Expected Default Frequency (EDF)
indicator. From January to December 2008 the EDF for the Netherlands rose by 665 basis points.
3
4. Spotlight on industries in The Netherlands
Construction
How has the global economic downturn impacted the construction industry?
Construction generates 4 % of GDP and has performed well over the past 3 years, despite the impact of
huge price increases for raw materials. Although prices fell in 2008, they do not compensate for the drop in
demand resulting from the credit crisis.. The demand for new houses has effectively collapsed since summer
2008, negatively impacting both developers and manufacturers.
What is the current trend in payment delays, payment defaults and insolvencies and why?
In the first half of 2008 the number of defaults in the construction sector showed signs of improvement. But
then the tide reversed, leading to a 70% increase of insolvencies year-on-year in November. A further rise is
predicted - and the current number of payment defaults supports this prediction. The construction sector is
facing a liquidity squeeze, due to falling demand and the unwillingness of banks to finance the additional
working capital needed, affecting both suppliers and subcontractors.
What should companies selling products into the construction sector pay particular attention to?
Ensure that a construction company is building on behalf of third parties and not for its own account, as the
latter would generally mean an increased finance risk.
And, of course, stick to the contractual terms of payment; don’t permit extensions and don’t agree further
shipments while earlier ones remain unpaid.
What is Atradius’ short term (6 month) outlook for the construction industry?
In 2009, once construction companies have completed current and agreed projects, the overcapacity and
lack of new orders in the industry will become evident. The summer will be the crunch time: if, by then, the
economic situation hasn’t improved and government support hasn’t been announced, we expect a
substantial increase in insolvencies in the second half of the year.
4
5. Spotlight on industries in The Netherlands
Transport
How has the global economic downturn impacted the transport industry?
Transport is a major contributor to the Dutch economy, both domestically and to established export markets
like Germany and other European neighbours. During the first half of 2008 the sector was hit by the
enormous increase fuel price, and any contracts that did not factor in a fuel price clause were destined to be
loss-making. Since summer 2008 the fuel prices has come down, but this has been accompanied by a
continuing sharp fall in demand, which has led to a gloomy short-term forecast.
What is the current trend in payment delays, payment defaults and insolvencies and why?
The developments described above have resulted in a sharp increase in insolvencies. The latest figures for
November 2008 show a 100% increase of insolvencies year-on-year.
What should companies selling products into the transport sector pay particular attention to?
Agree on short terms of payment and enforce them. Don’t allow extensions or further deliveries while
existing invoices remain unpaid.
What is Atradius’ short term (6 month) outlook for the transport industry?
Our expectations are that the internationally-active transport groups will survive if their financing was sound
before the crisis began. The middle-sized companies will probably absorb the decline in income unless they
operate in sectors that are the worst impacted, such as automotive, electronics, paper and packaging
material. Small companies are expected to go out of business, unless they have no need for additional
capital or are operating in the agricultural and food distribution industries. A further increase in insolvencies
is highly likely.
5
6. Spain
The current business environment
The Spanish economy deteriorated much faster than many of its European neighbours during 2008. After a
3.8% growth in 2007 Spanish GDP increased by only 1.1% in 2008. After a contraction of 0.2% in Q3 of
2008, GDP fell by 1.1% in the last quarter - the fastest rate of contraction since 1960.
The global credit squeeze has hit the housing market and construction sectors especially hard. The
homebuilding sector – one of the main pillars of the economy - has been negatively affected by high interest
rates, continuing high real estate prices and a large stock of houses.
Since the end of Q3 of 2008 the crisis has also spread rapidly into other sectors. While overall industry sales
decreased by 2.1% and order volumes fell by 1.2% between January and November 2008, in November
2008 sales plummeted by 20% and orders by 30%. The deterioration has manifested itself in almost all
industries, but so far construction-related industries, automotive and durable consumer goods have been the
worst affected. Retail business shrank by 5.6% in 2008.
Compared to 2007, payment default rose by 170% in 2008. In the same period the number of companies
filing for insolvency almost trebled: from 1,039 to 2,963 on preliminary figures.
The outlook for Spain
2009 will be Spain’s worst recessionary year. Currently GDP is forecast to contract by between 1.6% and 2%,
and we expect a further rise in payment defaults and insolvencies. This increase will in turn lead to delays in
insolvency proceedings, jeopardizing the chances of recovery.
Hardly any sector will escape this crisis year unscathed. We expect construction-related industries,
automotive and capital goods to be among the worst affected, the latter suffering from an expected decrease
in investment of 9.3% in 2009. We also expect a further deterioration in the retail sector, due to the expected
contraction in consumer spending, caused by sharply increasing unemployment.
6
7. Spotlight on industries in Spain
Construction
How has the global economic downturn impacted the industry?
In 2008 demand for homebuilding dropped sharply as a result of high interest rates, increasing
unemployment and uncertainty about future price developments. At the same time real estate prices in 2008
remained high. New public works projects also fell by 20%. In view of the high borrowing of many companies
in the sector, the poor outlook for the industry and the fear of asset devaluation, banks have tightened the
volumes and conditions of both corporate and consumer lending.
What is the current trend in payment delays, payment defaults and insolvencies and why?
The crisis in the construction industry has led to a very strong increase in payment defaults and insolvency.
While the number of insolvency procedures increased by more than 300% in 2008, 36% of all those cases
related to the construction industry, and also affected major stock-quoted companies.
What should companies selling products into the construction industry pay particular attention to?
Companies selling into the construction industry should pay particular attention to the degree of
diversification of their buyers, and to the market segment where the buyers are operating. We consider
companies acting predominantly in the public works sector to be less vulnerable, as these enterprises will
benefit from measures being taken by the government during 2009 and should also be less affected by asset
devaluation.
Many companies in the sector show a high gearing and also have assets which are currently suffering
devaluation. Together with the current market situation and outlook, this will deter bank lending. Of course,
vendors should be alert to any increase in payment delays.
What is Atradius’ short term (6 month) outlook for the construction industry?
The outlook for the whole industry remains negative, especially for the homebuilding sub-sector. There is still
a high stock of houses, while demand remains very low. We expect a further increase in insolvencies this
year.
7
8. Spotlight on industries in Spain
Automotive
How has the global economic downturn impacted the industry?
The Spanish automotive industry is very export-dependent - exports account for 80% of sales. As a result it
has been significantly hit by the global crisis since mid 2008. During 2008 car production in Spain fell by 12%,
while car sales dropped by 28%. The sharp decrease in car sales accelerated in January 2009, with a 41%
reduction compared to previous year. Over recent months many car plants and automotive suppliers have
put in place restructuring measures.
What is the current trend in payment delays, payment defaults and insolvencies and why?
The current situation puts heavy pressure on the automotive supply industry, where we have seen an
increase in payment defaults over recent months. In 2008, insolvencies increased by 79% compared to 2007.
What should companies selling products into the industry pay particular attention to?
The downturn in the industry is fast and severe, so financial deterioration can be very rapid. Therefore,
vendors need to pay close attention to any changes in the payment behaviour of their buyers.
What is Atradius’ short term (6 month) outlook for the automotive industry?
The Spanish automotive industry is expecting a historically bad year. Car production is likely to shrink by
21% - to levels not seen since 1989. We expect a strong increase in payment defaults and insolvencies.
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9. United States of America
The current business environment
The US economy has entered a dangerous transitionary period, as the financial system and consumers alike
continue to reel from the aftershocks of the last summer’s collapse of Lehman Brothers and the bail-out of
major financial players. While the Federal Government continues to inject liquidity into the credit markets,
looks at yet another bail-out of the banking system and debates a stimulus package for the US economy,
most major economic measures are flashing red.
Real GDP-growth fell by 3.8% in Q4 2008 following a 0.3% decline in Q3. Consumer demand, which drives
over two-thirds of the US economy, and business investment both collapsed - not surprising when
unemployment statistics to the end of January 2009 indicate the worst three month period of job losses since
1945, with companies ruthlessly controlling costs. Residential housing prices in most major cities have been
falling since July 2006: a pattern not seen since the Great Depression. Rounding off the litany of bad news,
US Banks continue to tighten lending credit available to business and consumers.
The outlook for the USA
The impact on business is evident in the accelerating pace of corporate defaults and insolvencies. January’s
speculative grade defaults reached 5 times the level of that at the end of 2007, and the expectation is that
2009 default rates will steeply rise. This trend is confirmed by the sharp increase in the Expected Default
Frequency (see chart above). Particularly vulnerable are companies in highly cyclical sectors, like chemicals,
those suffering from sharp drops in demand, like automotive and retailers, and leveraged businesses across
all sectors, reflecting the continued tightening in credit availability.
It is increasingly likely that, despite aggressive government action to fix the banking system and stimulate the
economy, the road to recovery will extend well into 2010. With credit markets virtually frozen and the ratio of
private sector debt to GDP reaching 300% in 2008, a substantial unwinding is required. We are already
seeing an increase in consumer saving, and, while this bodes well for the future, it will hit an already
struggling retail sector. Unfortunately the housing market appears some way from hitting bottom, with
substantial unsold inventory in most markets, and, in view of rising unemployment rates, it is difficult to see a
housing recovery in the short term.
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10. Belgium
The current business environment
The Belgian business environment deteriorated in the second half of 2008, and early indicators for 2009
unfortunately signal the continuation of this negative trend. Belgium will technically enter into recession in Q1
of 2009, and for this year a negative growth of -1.7% is expected.
Exports, as a main contributor to GDP, have been severely affected. The credit crisis has put the banking
system under pressure with a direct effect on the issue or renewal of credits for both corporates and
consumers, which in turn has negatively affected investments. Corporate investment showed a positive
development in 2008 (+6,8%) but is expected to be negative (- 4%) in 2009.
The dramatic deterioration has had an immediate impact on companies’ payment behaviour. In the second
quarter of 2008, 68.36% of the invoices issued by Belgian companies were paid on time, but the third quarter
showed a steep deterioration with a drop of more than 4% to 64.13%. 9% of these invoices were paid more
than 90 days after due date: an increase of about 16% compared to the previous quarter. First indications for
2009 confirm that this trend will continue.
The number of insolvencies reached an all time record of 8.512 cases in 2008, an increase of 10.8%
compared to 2007. A dramatic deterioration in the second half of the year led to consecutive monthly all time
records, with services (restaurants and cafés), construction, consumer durables, transport, retail and textiles
particularly impacted. Of these, construction and automotive have suffered from a fall in investment, while
services, consumer durables, retail and textiles have seen a marked decrease in domestic consumption.
The outlook for Belgium
Contracting GDP-growth and diminishing access to credit have led to lower investments and consumption
and pressure on export books. The main indicators are negative and we do not expect any recovery in the
short term. The number of insolvencies is expected to increase by more than 10% in 2009. This worrying
development is already signalled by the January figures, with 781 insolvencies, an increase of 14.52%
compared to January 2008. Construction, metals, automotive, transport and the retail sector will continue to
suffer.
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11. Austria
The current business environment
The global economic slump is increasingly affecting Austria. In Q4 of 2008 GDP-growth shrank by 0.4%
quarter-on-quarter, and in Q1 of 2009 a further decrease of 0.5% is expected. Overall a GDP-contraction of
at least 1.3% is expected in 2009. As the Austrian economy is very export-dependent, shrinking orders from
abroad have already negatively affected Austrian export-driven industries.
Like other economies, Austria is suffering tighter credit conditions, aggravated by the fact that many Austrian
banks are active in neighbouring Central and Eastern Europe. As a result, the worsening economic situation
and increasing corporate and private insolvencies in this region, which have already led to rising credit
defaults, are proving an additional burden for the Austrian bank system.
The Austrian corporate structure is characterised by a majority of small and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs) which, in general, are more vulnerable than larger companies due to their lower equity base and
cash flow. That said, Austrian SMEs are not as exposed to international trading risks, such as currency
volatility or depreciation of securities.
The outlook for Austria
In 2009 we expect an increase of corporate insolvencies by 8%-12%, caused mainly by higher financing
costs to compensate for shrinking profits.
The following sectors are mainly affected:
Textiles: this sector has struggled for a long time, with competition from Asia, the high price of raw materials
and high wages). This will be aggravated by the current crisis.
Construction: this sector has headed the insolvency statistics for many years. Having already decreased in
2008, orders will shrink massively in 2009.
Transport: falling demand has led to increasing pressure on prices and margins, mainly affecting companies
providing basic services, as in this segment competition is price-driven. Companies in this sector are already
battling lower labour costs in Eastern European competitors, and we expect further insolvencies in the short-
term.
Automotive: automotive suppliers are highly dependent on developments abroad – especially in Germany,
where the automotive sector has been severely hit by the crisis. Production has been cut and short-time
working introduced. Low demand and cancellation of orders have led to a strain on finances, with banks and
investors increasingly reluctant to finance the liquidity gaps. Despite support measures introduced by the
government, insolvencies will increase sharply in the coming months.
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12. Ireland
The current business environment
The Irish economy entered recession in 2008 for the first time in 25 years. During the 5 to 7 years up to
2008 the Irish domestic economy moved to a near dependence on construction - in particular house building
- to sustain itself. The downturn in house building from 77,000 units in 2007 to 51,000 in 2008 will continue
into 2009 where it is expected that units completed will fall to 25,000. This fall in house building will reduce
GDP growth by 3% in 2009.
We have seen large players in the construction sector defaulting, and the level of debt which many of
the ’super builders‘ have incurred in building up land banks is of major concern. Now that construction has
slowed, these companies are facing ever increasing interest bills, accruing against lower than budgeted
sales. We anticipate that substantially more of these companies will get into difficulties during the year. An
additional problem facing the developers is that the Irish banks are coming under pressure from investors
and regulators to accurately forecast bad debt and loan impairments, and this will result in further defaults.
Manufacturing has suffered badly in the early weeks of 2009, as has the motor trade, with new car
registrations down 66% during the first 20 days of 2009. Sales have been affected by the scarce availability
of credit and consumer fears over taking on extra commitment as we enter a year of uncertainty.
In 2008 insolvencies rose to 730 - up 103% on 2007 – and in January 2009 alone we have seen 73
insolvency notices (excluding Examinerships and Receiverships).
The outlook for Ireland
GDP is expected to contract by 4% in 2009. We expect to see continuing difficulties in construction in Q1
2009. Problems in construction will move into the steel/metals sector, which will suffer as commodity prices
fall with dangers of companies being over stocked with wrongly priced product. While it is too early to make
annual forecasts it is safe to assume that insolvencies will rise by at least 50%.
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13. Poland
The current business environment
After GDP-growth of 4.8% in 2008, forecasts for 2009 now range from zero growth to 1.7%. During recent
years, Polish growth has been driven by both domestic consumption and exports. But exports have started
to fall rapidly due to the downturn in demand from EU countries, Poland’s main export destination. Domestic
consumption remains strong for the time being, but the first signs of a slowdown are visible.
As a consequence, heavily export-oriented companies in the automotive, machines, chemicals, construction
materials and furniture sectors are experiencing the biggest problems. Metals/steels may also come under
extreme pressure this year, due to falling demand, high stock levels from the second and third quarter of
2008, and a big drop in prices (by 30%).
We are seeing a tightening of credit conditions by banks, especially by international banks which are
themselves in trouble. As a result, it is extremely difficult for Polish companies to get new financing and many
are now facing a credit shortage and/or stricter credit terms. Additionally, many companies have debts in
foreign currencies, and face higher credit risks due to the sharp depreciation of the zloty, adding to their debt
burden.
The outlook for Poland
In 2008, the number of corporate bankruptcies actually fell by 8% to 411, but this year we will see an
increase as reflected in the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) indicator. From January to December 2008
the EDF for Poland rose sharply by 188 basis points. In January 2009 alone four companies listed at the
Warsaw Stock Exchange have filed for an out-of-court agreement with their creditors. Since the beginning of
2009 we have seen alarming reports about steep increases of payment delays.
We expect that companies that do not react quickly to the changing environment by reducing fixed costs, re-
directing export, reducing stocks and lowering or restructuring indebtedness will face liquidity problems.
But there are also some opportunities in the current environment: Large EU funds are earmarked for
infrastructure improvements, providing good prospects for the construction sector. Additionally Poland
remains a competitive and attractive destination, with low labour costs, for Western European businesses
looking to outsource.
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14. Indonesia
The current business environment
Indonesia is expected to be one of the best performing Asian economies in 2009, as private consumption
and investment continue to expand - albeit more modestly than in recent years. That said, the 2009 growth
forecast has recently been revised by Business Monitor International from 5.0% to 3.6%. This downward
revision reflects the deterioration in global economic conditions, with demand from key export markets
already showing signs of contraction.
Indonesia's exports are already beginning to slow under the impact of falling commodities prices and slowing
1010global demand, after rising by around one-fifth last year. In particular, non-oil and gas exports to two of
Indonesia's largest trading partners - the US and Japan - declined significantly. The stock market in Jakarta
collapsed in October 2008 and companies are now finding it difficult to raise new capital due to the lack of
liquidity in the market.
The Bank of Indonesia has recently slashed its official lending rate from 8.75% to 8.25% to support both the
domestic economy and the export sector as global conditions continue to deteriorate. The sectors currently
in the spotlight are mining - due to commodity prices drop - steel, and the industries most affected by weaker
exports: textile, manufacturing and rubber.
The outlook for Indonesia
We expect exports to remain weak in the coming months in line with our bleak forecast for the global
economy. While Indonesia's economy is less dependent on external demand than many others, the knock-
on effects of the global economic slowdown will nonetheless inevitably take its toll on the country. Added to
this, corruption, excessive bureaucracy, poor infrastructure, protectionism and potential security risks also
threaten to undermine business stability. Businesses trading with their Indonesian partners should stay alert
for signs of default: delayed payments, requests for referrals, and non-acceptance of goods.
Atradius Copyright. While we have made every attempt to ensure that
the information contained in this report has been obtained from reliable
sources, Atradius is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for
the results obtained from the use of this information. All information in
this document is provided ’as is’, with no guarantee of completeness,
accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this
information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied. In no
event will Atradius, its related partnerships or corporations, or the
partners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else
for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information in
this report or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if
advised of the possibility of such damages.
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