Astricon 2019 Astricon Alan Quayle
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AstriCon 2019 Keynote from Alan Quayle, 29th Oct 2019 With nearly two million downloads per year, millions of deployments and a community of more than 86,000 members, the acceptance and growth of Asterisk continues at a brisk pace. And with over 250,000 downloads of FreePBX per year, the combined open source communications ecosystem spans over 200 countries. AstriCon gives all members of the Asterisk and FreePBX community - from telephony enthusiasts to businesses - a forum to learn about the technology. With an open source communications track and a business track, integrators and business end-users can expect to hear the latest news and project updates, gain access to in-depth technical sessions, participate in networking opportunities, meet potential collaborators and review and discuss detailed case studies. AstriCon, the annual Asterisk, and FreePBX user conference will take place from October 29-30, 2019 at the Omni Hotel at the Battery, Atlanta, Georgia
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Astricon 2019 Astricon Alan Quayle
- 1. Show me the ‘UCing Money!
- 2. KEEP CALM & FOLLOW THE MONEY
- 3. Who Pays the Analysts?
- 4. Industry Noise is Dominated by a Few Companies, And Most of it is Utter B@ll@ck$ 5GCLOUD AI DIGITAL BLOODY EVERYTHING BIASED QUADRANTS BABS-ARTISTS
- 5. We’ve got a ‘Bit’ of an Unlevel Playing Field!
- 6. However, Numbers are our Friends in Understanding the Playing Field
- 7. • Examine and quantify the current and future states of programmable communications / telecoms • Understand why the Asterisk / FreePBX community is vitally important to everyone in telecoms / comms • Share some results from a recent Open Source Telecom Software Survey • How Sangoma’s stack help its channels win more deals, make more money, and serve customers better We are Gathered here today….
- 8. Who Am I? Independent chartered engineer who wanders the world helping people build their businesses, and pointing out all the BS in the telecoms / communications industry.
- 9. Public CPaaS Communication Enabling Software and Platforms / Open Source Projects (Asterisk/FreePBX) Business Messaging In-App Comms Enterprise Channel (Gamma, WWT, Verizon, AT&T, etc) Customer Communications. Contact center, messaging, trust, .. Programmable Telecoms/Comms Landscape Automation Technologies (bots, speech rec, analytics, workforce management, knowledge management, conversational interfaces, marketing automation) © Alan Quayle 2019 Employee Communications. Unified Comms, business telephony, phone systems, messaging, collaboration
- 10. In App / Video Comms CPaaS / Messaging / Content / Payments CCaaSUCaaS Communication Enabling Software and Platforms Open Source Projects © Alan Quayle 2019
- 11. Employee Communications UC, business telephony, phone systems Messaging and collaboration © Alan Quayle 2019 This is not complete, limited by who I know, please let me know what I’m missing, thx. There’s a load more providers, this is just a sample.
- 12. 2018 revenue either published or guestimate Growth either based on published #s or guestimate %aaS / hosted guestimate Employees based on published numbers or guestimate Employee Communications % aaS (includes hosted) UC / Enterprise Telephony 2018 Revenue2019 Growth2020 Growth2021 Growth2022 Growth 3CX 22 25% 25% 25% 25% 10% 4Com 20 20% 20% 15% 15% 15% 8X8 280 20% 20% 20% 20% 100% Aircall 18 55% 50% 45% 40% 100% ALU Enterprise / Sipwise 380 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% Amazon Chime 25 45% 45% 45% 45% 100% AMP Telecom 1 20% 20% 20% 20% 100% Audiocodes 50 10% 10% 10% 10% 20% Avaya 1200 -10% -10% -10% -10% 5% Birchills Telecom 1 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% Blueface / Star2Star 260 20% 20% 20% 20% 15% Broadview / Windstream Enterprise 220 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% Broadvoice 45 15% 15% 15% 15% 50% Centile (part of Within Reach) 15 20% 20% 20% 20% 100% Cisco 800 5% 5% 5% 5% 10% Crexendo 15 10% 10% 10% 10% 80% Dialpad 50 40% 40% 40% 40% 100% Digium 30 15% 15% 15% 15% 50% Dzinga 5 50% 50% 50% 50% 100% EvolveIP 55 25% 25% 25% 25% 80% Flat Planet Phone 1 15% 15% 15% 15% 100% Fuze 125 25% 25% 25% 25% 100% Grasshopper (bought by Citrix/GoTo) 30 15% 15% 15% 15% 100% Huawei 650 20% 20% 20% 20% 5% Intelepeer 180 20% 20% 15% 15% 80% Intermedia 125 10% 10% 10% 10% 50% Intulse 3 25% 25% 25% 25% 100% ipcortex (bought by Aerial Direct) inc Aerial Direct #s18 18% 18% 18% 18% 50% Jive Communications (bought by Citrix/GoTo)80 35% 35% 35% 35% 100% Magicjack (for business) 30 18% 18% 18% 18% 100% Megapath 32 15% 15% 15% 15% 35% Microsoft 700 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% MightyCall 20 15% 15% 15% 15% 100% Mission Labs (CircleLoop) 1 200% 150% 100% 80% 100% Mitel 300 10% 10% 10% 10% 20% Natterbox 15 35% 35% 35% 35% 100% NEC 230 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% net2phone 10 5% 5% 5% 5% 100% Nextiva 140 20% 20% 20% 20% 100% Univoip (OfficeConnect) 25 10% 10% 10% 10% 100% onsip 13 15% 15% 15% 15% 100% ooma 55 18% 18% 18% 18% 100%
- 13. UC Market Sizing 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Enterprise Voice / UC Total Large Small • But wait a minute, UC market is $33B in 2021! – Telcos, mobile PBX, list is not complete (especially smaller players), doesn’t include channel margin – At least 50% of the UC market is up for grabs from the telcos! • Of small players approx 80% use open source telecom software, with Asterisk/FreePBX being the dominate projects. Average age of companies is 6.5 years old. • For small players 50% of revenue is from cloud/hosted services – hybrid matters • For large players 30% is from cloud/hosted because legacy revenues tend to be on-prem
- 14. Open Source Telecom Software Project Survey RESULTS The purpose of this survey is to gather across the industry people's experiences and opinions on using Open Source Telecom Software Projects (OSPs), and share an anonymized aggregate view of the different projects with those that compete the survey. Weblog that intro’ed the survey: http://alanquayle.com/2019/05/open-source- telecom-software-project-survey/ I'm often asked to comment on the different projects, this is an attempt to provide something more authoritative than my opinions based on who I last talked to
- 15. Which OSPs do you use? Which OSPs do you use? Responses % Asterisk 71 75% FreeSWITCH 39 41% Kamailio 41 43% OpenSIPS 51 54% Restcomm/Mobicents 3 3% The only TAS (Telecom App Server) we did not receive feedback from was SIPfoundry/sipxcom. I only recently made contacts there, likely my lack of credibility in that community meant it did not receive much attention. © Alan Quayle, 2019
- 16. Which OSPs do you use? Management Interfaces / Solution Wraps / Monitoring & Capture Responses % Elastix (for Asterisk) 1 1% FreePBX (for Asterisk) 21 22% FusionPBX (for FreeSwitch) 10 11% Kazoo 2 2% RTPProxy 18 19% SIP3 0 0% Sipcapture - Homer 31 33% Sippy Softswitch 2 2% VICIdial (for Asterisk) 7 7% Wazo (for Asterisk) 15 16% YETISwitch 0 0% sipsak, sipp 1 1%Note: sipsak is a CLI for testing using SIPp (Open Source test tool / traffic generator) © Alan Quayle, 2019 FreePBX is most popular management interface for Asterisk Nice to see RTPProxy being used, it comes up in discussions more often. Nice to see more niche projects like VICIdial (Asterisk) being used. All these projects helps explain the diversity of application areas we see for open source projects.
- 17. Asterisk: What is the main application(s)? Application (66 responses) Responses % PBX 50 76% Conferencing 28 42% Contact Center 37 56% Mobile App Comms 6 9% CPaaS 4 6% UCaaS 7 11% CCaaS 0 0% Video CC 0 0% Media App Server 6 9% Scale (66 responses) Responses % 100 22 33% 1000 12 18% 10k 25 38% 100k 11 17% 1M+ 3 5% © Alan Quayle, 2019 The “popular” view: Asterisk is used for PBX implementations at enterprise scale. This provides some quantification on the breadth and scale of Asterisk applications.
- 18. Asterisk: What to you consider the strengths and weaknesses of the OSP? Strengths 41 responses % Features 8 20% Reliability 15 37% Openness 3 7% Flexibility 14 34% Community 17 41% Maturity 10 24% Easy to set-up / configure 9 22% Small footprint 8 20% Well documented 3 7% Weaknesses 33 results % Uncertainty over new ownership 5 15% IPPBX centric 8 24% Cloud support 7 21% Multi-tenancy 6 18% Scalability 9 27% Performance 4 12% Direction from Community 4 12% © Alan Quayle, 2019 Community, Reliability and Flexibility are top features. A correlation on the weaknesses is those highlighting scalability, IPPBX-centric, cloud support, were NOT providing feedback on the solution wraps / management interfaces.
- 19. © Alan Quayle, 2019 Asterisk: Community
- 20. How do you architect your deployments Responses % Container Images 14 22% Container Orchestration 9 14% VM Images 48 75% Bare Metal 41 64% Do you use a configuration management/scripting system Responses % none 4 8% own / in-house 8 15% SaltStack 2 4% Ansible 29 56% Pupper 9 17% © Alan Quayle, 2019 Bare Metal, Ansible and Self Hosted This is not a party for AWS and Google
- 21. A Few Take-Aways ● For configuration management / scripting, the answer is Ansible ○ Asterisk should share popular scripts to aid adoption and setup. ● Native Cloud (AWS, Google, etc.) is not a popular choice ● Geography ○ Some in Europe were surprised at the size of the Asterisk / FreePBX responses, it would be interesting to map how the projects are adopted around the world. ● There’s still much we can do together as a global community to accelerate open source adoption © Alan Quayle, 2019
- 22. “Each one of us can make a difference. Together we make change.” Barbara Mikulski
- 23. • RingCentral, Microsoft, Cisco are not destined to own UC – Trust: most businesses do not have an IT department, hence a local person they can trust that makes it easy for them matters – Price: Most people are frugal, saving money matters than a long lists of features – Hybrid, not just cloud, matters • Open source telecom software (Asterisk/FreePBX) underlies the majority of the Programmable Communications Market ($100B+ revenue) – 82% of web app servers are open source – the same be true for Programmable Telecoms (for small / medium players) • Asterisk/FreePBX is the largest telecoms / communications community and has the broadest set of applications – Many implementations include other projects like Kamailio, OpenSIPS, Wazo, VICIdial – lots of opportunities to share best practices: a community of communities • Open source community is the best defense for smaller providers – Raising all boats in the open source tide – Employee Communications for small players $4B (2018) growing to $8B (2022) – Likely $10B up for grabs in the coming decade by focusing on the customer: trust, local, easy, price, hybrid Beware False Narratives Ignore the Noise, focus on the customer
- 24. • Stability and experience: 1.5 million UC seats across 150 countries • Focused on reality of business, not the hype – Trust, local, easy, price, hybrid • Well-stocked shelves to help partners deliver complete solutions to their customers • Helping level the playing field for those outside the BABS machine
- 25. Standing on the Shoulders of Giants.. Bernard of Chartres in 12C Isaac Newton in 1675 ..we can focus on the customer
Editor's Notes
- Thanks for taking the time to listen. By the end of this talk, I hope to provide you with the numbers to quantify the revenue available to the Sangoma ecosystem, and why open source based solutions are fundamental to your business.
- To begin we need to follow the money, specifically…….
- (Animation), it’s the big guys. Yep, Twilio and RingCentral are now the big guys, inviting analysts to their indoctrination events. Note because Astricon is fundamentally an open source event, the No BS rule is in force, its different! Also Sangoma at $60M is just too small for analysts to pay much attention (between you and me, they don’t understand open source).
- But the Analysts (in the pocket of the large vendors) fill the ‘conversation’ in industry with utter bollocks (walk through the points)
- Examine the current and future states of CXTech / programmable communications Explain why the smaller providers matters. The enterprise market is complex, do not believe the BABS-Artists (Bay Area BS). Many enterprises are just discovering VoIP exists; many do not have an IT group so they need a trusted local geek; and the cult-like jabber about APIs, APIs, APIs scares them. Understand why Asterisk is vitally important to the telecommunications industry. It’s the ‘Apache web app server’ of communications. 82% of web servers are open source (Apache and NGINX). Open source drives innovation, protects the Sangoma ecosystem, and keeps the focus on customer service. Share results from a recent Open Source Telecom Software Survey. How are people using the different open source projects, what are other developers thinking about those projects? Quantifying how the open source engines powering Sangoma’s solutions help its channels win more deals, make more money, and serve customers better than the BABS monopolists.
- These are the companies building the telecom application services, application frameworks, management GUIs, testing and control systems of CXTech. Its a small group of open source software experts revolutionizing the whole communications / telecoms industry. There are also a group of companies building CPaaS / UCaaS / CCaaS enablers for other companies to build and offer services. For example, hSenid Mobile supplies the technology and processes for IdeaMart, one of the longest running and most successful telco CPaaS. Apigate, Kandy, Telenity, Telestax, MITTO, IMIMobile and 2600Hz also fall into this category. See associated Excel sheet for categorization and revenue breakdown – all my guestimates.
- See associated Excel sheet for names of companies – I’m working on revenue breakdowns and further categorization. We’re just scratching the surface of this space in this slide. I’ve not included all the legacy audio conference providers, rather the richer video, whiteboard, online collab tools. LHS of slide is focused on telephony, RHS on messaging and collab. With the big companies in the middle that cover both. Key Points: There are LOADS of messaging platforms, looking at the customer logos shows enterprises are using multiple messaging platforms. Also messaging is embedded in lots of enterprise tools, like project management, I’ve not included those companies in the landscape. Messaging and collaboration are not a one supplier wins all for many enterprises. While telephony for employee communications does appear to be generally a single supplier win, and the telephony win does not correlate to a messaging win. Hence, diversity in supply of employee communications will remain the norm. Cloud based telephony is maturing, yet there are still lots of premise and hosted based offers being bought today. Many VAR focus on user experience simplicity, reselling the core platform of an established UC vendor, and they focus on augmenting with devices and UE that meet specific vertical needs. Slack is not the only game in town for enterprise messaging, there are tens of other providers, some focused on verticals, or security, or simplicity, or business process features built-in. Telephony has a simpler enterprise use case A calls B for a voice conversation (with recording, analytics and integrations being options), messaging and collaboration have many more use cases and hence diversity in supply. For employee communications, anything that tries to be unifying across all communications is likely to result in an overly complex experience. Sometimes a calculator is good enough, sometime an excel sheet, and sometimes a specialized modelling tool is required. The modelling tool can do everything the others can, but most people can not use it. Messaging and collaboration use cases are too varied for a single unified solution – UCaaS is a misnomer.
- Use as an example of how the sizes where determined
- This is now we take on the monopolists
- Examine the current and future states of CXTech / programmable communications Explain why the smaller providers matters. The enterprise market is complex, do not believe the BABS-Artists (Bay Area BS). Many enterprises are just discovering VoIP exists; many do not have an IT group so they need a trusted local geek; and the cult-like jabber about APIs, APIs, APIs scares them. Understand why Asterisk is vitally important to the telecommunications industry. It’s the ‘Apache web app server’ of communications. 82% of web servers are open source (Apache and NGINX). Open source drives innovation, protects the Sangoma ecosystem, and keeps the focus on customer service. Share results from a recent Open Source Telecom Software Survey. How are people using the different open source projects, what are other developers thinking about those projects? Quantifying how the open source engines powering Sangoma’s solutions help its channels win more deals, make more money, and serve customers better than the BABS monopolists.