During 1–15 September, the Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (Nikkei PMI), a leading indicator for economic conditions, was announced for each ASEAN economy, amongst other critical macroeconomic indicators. Also during that time, the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia, BNM) held the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting, while Indonesia began ramping up its infrastructure development and construction. Please refer to the table attached at the end of the report for an overview of the macroeconomic indices for ASEAN economies.
“ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends” is a new series of SPEEDA reports released once every two weeks, compiled by Takashi Kawabata, our Chief Asia Economist. With macroeconomic indicators and financial policies as the fundamentals, the reports look into public economic policies when there are significant moves, as well as political and social issues that may affect economic and business trends.
The Economic Survey ruled out any over or underestimation of India's GDP growth rates following a methodology change in 2011. It analyzed GDP growth rates of 95 countries and found the methodology may have miscalculated growth in 51 countries during that period. The government budgeted the fiscal deficit at 3.5% of GDP for FY21, up from a revised 3.8% for FY20. Core sector growth recovered to 1.3% in December 2019 helped by expansion in coal, fertilizer and refinery production. The government plans infrastructure investments of Rs. 102 lakh crore during FY2020-25 under the National Infrastructure Pipeline.
The document discusses four investment themes in Indian equities over the next few years:
1. Falling inflation will likely lead the RBI to lower interest rates, boosting credit growth and sectors like banks and autos.
2. Lower interest rates will spur demand for loans and revive industrial production and GDP growth, benefiting cyclical sectors like infrastructure, cement, and capital goods.
3. Implementation of key government reforms in areas like land acquisition, mining, and labor will boost sectors like power, steel, and cement.
4. Recovery in the global economy and commodity prices will help commodity-linked sectors as demand increases.
The author believes positioning a portfolio across these themes can generate strong returns
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyan...Kyna Tsai
During the period of 1–15 November, Indonesia reported its economic growth rate (real GDP growth rate) for 3Q at 5.1%, levelling off from the 5.0% for 2Q. The central banks of Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines decided to maintain their policy interest rates at their respective monetary policy meetings. Retail sales in Singapore were affected by seasonal factors and showed negative growth for the first time in seven months. For more information, refer to the list of macroeconomic indices released over 1–15 November at the end of this report.
The document summarizes recent positive economic developments in Indonesia. GDP growth was 6.2% in Q2 2010 and is projected to be 5.5-6.0% for the full year. Inflation is estimated to remain within the target range of 5%±1%. The balance of payments posted a surplus in Q2 and international reserves increased. Banking stability was maintained with strong capital levels and low non-performing loans. Fiscal policy aims to continue stimulus while reducing debt, with the state budget targeting a deficit of 1.6% of GDP.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
The current issue of Economy Matters focuses on “Financial Sector in India”. In Domestic Trends, we present an Economy Overview along with an analysis of the latest data on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal situation, Monsoon and Trade performance. In Policy Focus, we present the highlights of the key policies announced by the Government/RBI during October 2017. Analysis of Canada’s GDP, IMF’s latest global forecast and US Non-Farm Payroll data is covered in Global Trends.
The unabated rise in Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) of
the Indian banking sector is a cause for concern for the
economy. Due to this reason, the Economic Survey de-
voted considerable attention to what it terms India’s
Twin Balance Sheet problem - overleveraged and dis-
tressed companies and the rising NPAs in Public Sector
Bank balance sheets. The issue is important because it is
holding up private investment in the country and there-
fore, growth across all sectors. Some of the major rea-
sons for increase in NPAs of banks are the subdued do-
mestic demand conditions and no signs of a turnaround
in private investment along with continuing uncertainty
in the global markets leading to lower exports of various
products like textiles, engineering goods, leather, gems,
etc.
“ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends” is a new series of SPEEDA reports released once every two weeks, compiled by Takashi Kawabata, our Chief Asia Economist. With macroeconomic indicators and financial policies as the fundamentals, the reports look into public economic policies when there are significant moves, as well as political and social issues that may affect economic and business trends.
The Economic Survey ruled out any over or underestimation of India's GDP growth rates following a methodology change in 2011. It analyzed GDP growth rates of 95 countries and found the methodology may have miscalculated growth in 51 countries during that period. The government budgeted the fiscal deficit at 3.5% of GDP for FY21, up from a revised 3.8% for FY20. Core sector growth recovered to 1.3% in December 2019 helped by expansion in coal, fertilizer and refinery production. The government plans infrastructure investments of Rs. 102 lakh crore during FY2020-25 under the National Infrastructure Pipeline.
The document discusses four investment themes in Indian equities over the next few years:
1. Falling inflation will likely lead the RBI to lower interest rates, boosting credit growth and sectors like banks and autos.
2. Lower interest rates will spur demand for loans and revive industrial production and GDP growth, benefiting cyclical sectors like infrastructure, cement, and capital goods.
3. Implementation of key government reforms in areas like land acquisition, mining, and labor will boost sectors like power, steel, and cement.
4. Recovery in the global economy and commodity prices will help commodity-linked sectors as demand increases.
The author believes positioning a portfolio across these themes can generate strong returns
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyan...Kyna Tsai
During the period of 1–15 November, Indonesia reported its economic growth rate (real GDP growth rate) for 3Q at 5.1%, levelling off from the 5.0% for 2Q. The central banks of Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines decided to maintain their policy interest rates at their respective monetary policy meetings. Retail sales in Singapore were affected by seasonal factors and showed negative growth for the first time in seven months. For more information, refer to the list of macroeconomic indices released over 1–15 November at the end of this report.
The document summarizes recent positive economic developments in Indonesia. GDP growth was 6.2% in Q2 2010 and is projected to be 5.5-6.0% for the full year. Inflation is estimated to remain within the target range of 5%±1%. The balance of payments posted a surplus in Q2 and international reserves increased. Banking stability was maintained with strong capital levels and low non-performing loans. Fiscal policy aims to continue stimulus while reducing debt, with the state budget targeting a deficit of 1.6% of GDP.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
The current issue of Economy Matters focuses on “Financial Sector in India”. In Domestic Trends, we present an Economy Overview along with an analysis of the latest data on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal situation, Monsoon and Trade performance. In Policy Focus, we present the highlights of the key policies announced by the Government/RBI during October 2017. Analysis of Canada’s GDP, IMF’s latest global forecast and US Non-Farm Payroll data is covered in Global Trends.
The unabated rise in Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) of
the Indian banking sector is a cause for concern for the
economy. Due to this reason, the Economic Survey de-
voted considerable attention to what it terms India’s
Twin Balance Sheet problem - overleveraged and dis-
tressed companies and the rising NPAs in Public Sector
Bank balance sheets. The issue is important because it is
holding up private investment in the country and there-
fore, growth across all sectors. Some of the major rea-
sons for increase in NPAs of banks are the subdued do-
mestic demand conditions and no signs of a turnaround
in private investment along with continuing uncertainty
in the global markets leading to lower exports of various
products like textiles, engineering goods, leather, gems,
etc.
A general take on the Modi-phenomenon that has swept the stock markets! With structural changes finally being implemented by the new government we can expect a decade of massive growth. First uploaded as an Instablog on SeekingAlpha in September
- S&P retained India's sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade of 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, citing strong external settings that will act as a buffer against financial strains. However, it noted India's weak fiscal settings and consistently elevated deficits.
- The CEA expects India's economy to start growing at 6.5-7% annually from fiscal 2023 onwards, helped by COVID-19 vaccination progress and various reforms. However, the second wave impacted the recovery momentum seen in late 2020 and early 2021.
- India's exports rose 48.34% in June compared to last year, while imports increased 98.31%, leaving a trade deficit of Rs. 69,800 crore for the month.
The IMF projects India's economic growth to rebound to around 7% in the next fiscal year, supported by monetary policy stimulus and corporate tax cuts. However, Fitch Ratings lowered its forecast for India's GDP growth in the current fiscal year to 5.5% due to a credit squeeze from shadow banks. India improved its ranking in the World Bank's ease of doing business report to 63rd out of 190 countries due to business reforms. The government also plans strategic sales of 11 major public sector units to meet fiscal targets and boost the economy.
The document provides an overview of expectations for the upcoming Indian budget to be announced on July 10, 2014. Key expectations include clarity on implementing the Goods and Services Tax by April 2015, laying out a roadmap for the Direct Tax Code, increasing certain tax deduction limits, and providing tax exemptions to boost housing. Other anticipated announcements include increasing foreign direct investment limits in several sectors, introducing new road and rail cess taxes, and reforming land acquisition and labor laws. The document also discusses macroeconomic indicators and stock market performance during the week.
The document provides a summary of various news articles from February 6th to February 8th relating to the Indian economy and government policies. Key points include:
- The RBI kept interest rates unchanged but promised to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance to support growth. It also projected India's GDP growth at 10.5% for FY22.
- The government increased capital expenditure for FY22 by 34.5% to Rs. 5.54 lakh crore to boost infrastructure and revive sectors impacted by the pandemic.
- India's merchandise exports rose 5.37% in January while the trade deficit narrowed, indicating signs of economic recovery. However, exports declined 13.66% over April-
Weekly News: The government cancels approvals of nine SEZ - SMCIndiaNotes.com
The government has cancelled approvals of nine special economic zones, including that of Hindalco Industries, Essar and Adani as no "satisfactory" progress was made to execute the projects.
The Union Budget 2018-19 is going to be the last full Budget of the incumbent government and will be keenly watched for the twin provisions of driving investment and growth on one hand while maintaining fiscal discipline on the other. CII expects Budget 2018-19 to focus on four key areas: investment revival, job creation, growth of the agricultural sector and development of the social sectors of education and healthcare. CII has recommended that the government stick to fiscal prudence which in turn will help in softening interest rates and boosting GDP growth in the near to medium-term. While a slippage from the budgeted target of 3.2 per cent of GDP fiscal deficit for FY18 looks imminent now, an attempt should be made to raise additional resources so as not to diverge from the targeted deficit level by a large magnitude. This month issue of CII Economy Matters focuses on Pre-Budget Expectations: 2018-19.
Market outlook April 2021 - ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
The resurgence of the pandemic may delay the recovery and growth of the Indian Economy. And with limited room for rate cuts going forward, investors could benefit from active duration management and accrual strategies.
To know more, read our Market Outlook for April 2021.
The document provides a weekly media update comprising news related to Balmer Lawrie and other Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) in India. Some of the key stories discussed include:
1) Nomura projecting India to be the fastest growing Asian economy in 2021 at 9.9% GDP growth.
2) The Asian Development Bank projecting a slower economic contraction of 8% for India in FY21 compared to its earlier forecast of 9%.
3) The government asking Indian Oil Corporation to prepare an asset monetization plan and get approval on it by the end of January 2021.
- Global equity markets rose as central banks emphasized growth over inflation, though manufacturing data was weak. Bond yields were largely unchanged.
- In Asia, regional markets were up except Japan and Indonesia. China's PMI fell slightly. Taiwan's economy grew slower due to weaker trade. India cut rates further.
- European stocks rose as the ECB cut rates and Italy formed a new government. Growth forecasts for Europe were lowered. UK data beat expectations.
- US stocks outperformed on strong jobs and consumer confidence data. The Fed maintained asset purchases but may adjust the amount based on conditions.
The document discusses the following:
1) Indian markets performed well in May with the Nifty 50 index rising 3.4% and outperforming global markets. Mid and small cap indices fell but have outperformed so far in 2017.
2) Inflation continued to surprise on the downside, falling to 2.99% in April. Wholesale inflation also declined and core inflation is at a series low. Lower global commodity prices and a favorable base will likely keep inflation low.
3) The RBI's monetary policy was dovish in line with lower growth and inflation data. While rates were kept unchanged, the tone and forecasts signal potential future rate cuts to boost the economy.
Case Study - RBI likely to maintain status quo on interest rateMervin Felix Caleb
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain the status quo on interest rates at its upcoming monetary policy review, amid concerns around rising inflation and the potential economic impact of a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on August 6 to decide on policy rates. Most analysts expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged and closely monitor the evolving macroeconomic situation before making any changes to rates. Retail inflation has exceeded the RBI's target range of 2-6% in recent months.
This weekly media update from Balmer Lawrie provides summaries of news related to the Indian economy, public sector enterprises, and Balmer Lawrie's business sectors. Key articles summarize projections of India's GDP declining this fiscal year from Moody's and ICRA, and the RBI forecasting continued negative GDP growth. Other articles discuss the government's economic stimulus measures, a potential current account surplus, a decline in EPF contribution rates, and an increase in new PF account openings in FY20.
- Japanese industrial production and core consumer prices rose in December, while the unemployment rate fell.
- In India, the Sensex snapped a five-day falling trend, rising slightly. The rupee edged lower against the dollar.
- The RBI laid out plans to deal with rising bad loans, including early identification of stressed assets and incentives for timely resolution.
The RBI held interest rates steady against expectations due to concerns over seasonal food price inflation. The governor said rates may rise in 6 months if food inflation does not cool. US Federal Reserve began tapering bond purchases as expected due to strong economic growth. Indian IT and export sectors are expected to benefit from the recovery in the US economy. Bank earnings this quarter are forecast to improve over the last two quarters.
The interim budget tabled by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee allocated Rs. 9.53 trillion for 2009-2010, keeping tax rates unchanged and increasing spending on social sectors like rural jobs and education. However, it did not include additional measures to stimulate the weakening economy, with Mukherjee stating this would be addressed in the regular budget. The budget focused on highlighting the achievements of the UPA government and increased spending pushed the fiscal deficit higher. It unveiled two new pension schemes but provided little stimulus and was criticized by industry and markets for not doing more to boost growth.
- India's fuel demand grew 3.8% in February 2019 compared to the same period last year, with petrol consumption up 8% and LPG demand rising 14.2% due to new LPG connections. Diesel demand increased 2.7%.
- Niti Aayog has proposed increasing the monthly training stipend reimbursement under the National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme from Rs. 1,500 to Rs. 5,000 to encourage more companies to provide apprenticeships.
- Oil prices are being weighed down by global economic growth concerns, but are supported by OPEC supply cuts and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Morgan Stanley predicts oil prices will reach $75/barrel by
- Monetary policy aims to control money supply, contain inflation, stabilize exchange rates, and maintain balance of payments equilibrium. This helps support macroeconomic stability.
- Pakistan's economy grew reasonably well in recent years, with GDP growth reaching 4.04% in FY2015 and 4.71% in FY2016, despite slower global growth and economic challenges. Private sector credit expansion has helped manufacturing and industry.
- Broad money supply (M2) increased 6.93% during the period as net domestic assets grew. However, net foreign assets only saw modest growth as scheduled bank foreign assets declined slightly while SBP foreign assets grew.
The document discusses several topics related to the global economy and currencies. It provides projections for interest rates and GDP growth from the FOMC, ECB, and for various countries. It also discusses trends in commodity prices, currency exchange rates, bond yields, FDI flows, and other economic indicators for countries like the US, Eurozone, India. Key points mentioned are the flattening of the US yield curve pointing to long term uncertainties, expected tight crude oil market conditions, outlook for the Indian rupee, and monsoon rainfall forecast in India for 2018.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide ...Kyna Tsai
During 16–31 October, Indonesia estimated its growth rate for 2018 at 5.4% YoY within the budget that it recently established for the next financial year, with the government predicting that the country’s economic growth will accelerate gradually in comparison to 2017. In addition, the budget draft proposed to the Parliament of Malaysia for the next financial year estimated the country’s growth at 5.0–5.5% YoY, which remains at a high level despite minor deceleration. Another important activity took place in the southern region of the Philippines, where a five-month-long conflict between a militant group operating under the name “Islamic State” (IS) and the country’s military came to a close.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Indonesia Continues to Lower Interest Rates; Vietn...Kyna Tsai
During 16–30 September, amongst the participating countries in ASEAN, the central banks of Indonesia,
Thailand, and the Philippines each held monetary policy meetings, and Indonesia’s second consecutive
decision to lower its interest rates is worth attention. Furthermore, Vietnam exhibited a high real GDP
growth rate for 3Q, recording 7.5%. Please refer to the table attached at the end of this report for an
overview of the macroeconomic indices for ASEAN economies released during 16–30 September.
The document provides a summary of recent news articles mentioning Balmer Lawrie and related topics. It includes reports that:
1) The IMF says the global economic outlook is gloomier than previously projected due to high inflation, China's slowing growth, and disruptions from the Ukraine war.
2) An analysis by Deloitte India estimates India will see 6.5-7.1% economic growth in the current fiscal year despite rising inflation and global slowdown risks.
3) The RBI estimates India's economy grew between 6.1-6.3% in the second quarter, putting annual growth on track to be around 7% for fiscal year 2023.
A general take on the Modi-phenomenon that has swept the stock markets! With structural changes finally being implemented by the new government we can expect a decade of massive growth. First uploaded as an Instablog on SeekingAlpha in September
- S&P retained India's sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade of 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, citing strong external settings that will act as a buffer against financial strains. However, it noted India's weak fiscal settings and consistently elevated deficits.
- The CEA expects India's economy to start growing at 6.5-7% annually from fiscal 2023 onwards, helped by COVID-19 vaccination progress and various reforms. However, the second wave impacted the recovery momentum seen in late 2020 and early 2021.
- India's exports rose 48.34% in June compared to last year, while imports increased 98.31%, leaving a trade deficit of Rs. 69,800 crore for the month.
The IMF projects India's economic growth to rebound to around 7% in the next fiscal year, supported by monetary policy stimulus and corporate tax cuts. However, Fitch Ratings lowered its forecast for India's GDP growth in the current fiscal year to 5.5% due to a credit squeeze from shadow banks. India improved its ranking in the World Bank's ease of doing business report to 63rd out of 190 countries due to business reforms. The government also plans strategic sales of 11 major public sector units to meet fiscal targets and boost the economy.
The document provides an overview of expectations for the upcoming Indian budget to be announced on July 10, 2014. Key expectations include clarity on implementing the Goods and Services Tax by April 2015, laying out a roadmap for the Direct Tax Code, increasing certain tax deduction limits, and providing tax exemptions to boost housing. Other anticipated announcements include increasing foreign direct investment limits in several sectors, introducing new road and rail cess taxes, and reforming land acquisition and labor laws. The document also discusses macroeconomic indicators and stock market performance during the week.
The document provides a summary of various news articles from February 6th to February 8th relating to the Indian economy and government policies. Key points include:
- The RBI kept interest rates unchanged but promised to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance to support growth. It also projected India's GDP growth at 10.5% for FY22.
- The government increased capital expenditure for FY22 by 34.5% to Rs. 5.54 lakh crore to boost infrastructure and revive sectors impacted by the pandemic.
- India's merchandise exports rose 5.37% in January while the trade deficit narrowed, indicating signs of economic recovery. However, exports declined 13.66% over April-
Weekly News: The government cancels approvals of nine SEZ - SMCIndiaNotes.com
The government has cancelled approvals of nine special economic zones, including that of Hindalco Industries, Essar and Adani as no "satisfactory" progress was made to execute the projects.
The Union Budget 2018-19 is going to be the last full Budget of the incumbent government and will be keenly watched for the twin provisions of driving investment and growth on one hand while maintaining fiscal discipline on the other. CII expects Budget 2018-19 to focus on four key areas: investment revival, job creation, growth of the agricultural sector and development of the social sectors of education and healthcare. CII has recommended that the government stick to fiscal prudence which in turn will help in softening interest rates and boosting GDP growth in the near to medium-term. While a slippage from the budgeted target of 3.2 per cent of GDP fiscal deficit for FY18 looks imminent now, an attempt should be made to raise additional resources so as not to diverge from the targeted deficit level by a large magnitude. This month issue of CII Economy Matters focuses on Pre-Budget Expectations: 2018-19.
Market outlook April 2021 - ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
The resurgence of the pandemic may delay the recovery and growth of the Indian Economy. And with limited room for rate cuts going forward, investors could benefit from active duration management and accrual strategies.
To know more, read our Market Outlook for April 2021.
The document provides a weekly media update comprising news related to Balmer Lawrie and other Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) in India. Some of the key stories discussed include:
1) Nomura projecting India to be the fastest growing Asian economy in 2021 at 9.9% GDP growth.
2) The Asian Development Bank projecting a slower economic contraction of 8% for India in FY21 compared to its earlier forecast of 9%.
3) The government asking Indian Oil Corporation to prepare an asset monetization plan and get approval on it by the end of January 2021.
- Global equity markets rose as central banks emphasized growth over inflation, though manufacturing data was weak. Bond yields were largely unchanged.
- In Asia, regional markets were up except Japan and Indonesia. China's PMI fell slightly. Taiwan's economy grew slower due to weaker trade. India cut rates further.
- European stocks rose as the ECB cut rates and Italy formed a new government. Growth forecasts for Europe were lowered. UK data beat expectations.
- US stocks outperformed on strong jobs and consumer confidence data. The Fed maintained asset purchases but may adjust the amount based on conditions.
The document discusses the following:
1) Indian markets performed well in May with the Nifty 50 index rising 3.4% and outperforming global markets. Mid and small cap indices fell but have outperformed so far in 2017.
2) Inflation continued to surprise on the downside, falling to 2.99% in April. Wholesale inflation also declined and core inflation is at a series low. Lower global commodity prices and a favorable base will likely keep inflation low.
3) The RBI's monetary policy was dovish in line with lower growth and inflation data. While rates were kept unchanged, the tone and forecasts signal potential future rate cuts to boost the economy.
Case Study - RBI likely to maintain status quo on interest rateMervin Felix Caleb
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain the status quo on interest rates at its upcoming monetary policy review, amid concerns around rising inflation and the potential economic impact of a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on August 6 to decide on policy rates. Most analysts expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged and closely monitor the evolving macroeconomic situation before making any changes to rates. Retail inflation has exceeded the RBI's target range of 2-6% in recent months.
This weekly media update from Balmer Lawrie provides summaries of news related to the Indian economy, public sector enterprises, and Balmer Lawrie's business sectors. Key articles summarize projections of India's GDP declining this fiscal year from Moody's and ICRA, and the RBI forecasting continued negative GDP growth. Other articles discuss the government's economic stimulus measures, a potential current account surplus, a decline in EPF contribution rates, and an increase in new PF account openings in FY20.
- Japanese industrial production and core consumer prices rose in December, while the unemployment rate fell.
- In India, the Sensex snapped a five-day falling trend, rising slightly. The rupee edged lower against the dollar.
- The RBI laid out plans to deal with rising bad loans, including early identification of stressed assets and incentives for timely resolution.
The RBI held interest rates steady against expectations due to concerns over seasonal food price inflation. The governor said rates may rise in 6 months if food inflation does not cool. US Federal Reserve began tapering bond purchases as expected due to strong economic growth. Indian IT and export sectors are expected to benefit from the recovery in the US economy. Bank earnings this quarter are forecast to improve over the last two quarters.
The interim budget tabled by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee allocated Rs. 9.53 trillion for 2009-2010, keeping tax rates unchanged and increasing spending on social sectors like rural jobs and education. However, it did not include additional measures to stimulate the weakening economy, with Mukherjee stating this would be addressed in the regular budget. The budget focused on highlighting the achievements of the UPA government and increased spending pushed the fiscal deficit higher. It unveiled two new pension schemes but provided little stimulus and was criticized by industry and markets for not doing more to boost growth.
- India's fuel demand grew 3.8% in February 2019 compared to the same period last year, with petrol consumption up 8% and LPG demand rising 14.2% due to new LPG connections. Diesel demand increased 2.7%.
- Niti Aayog has proposed increasing the monthly training stipend reimbursement under the National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme from Rs. 1,500 to Rs. 5,000 to encourage more companies to provide apprenticeships.
- Oil prices are being weighed down by global economic growth concerns, but are supported by OPEC supply cuts and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Morgan Stanley predicts oil prices will reach $75/barrel by
- Monetary policy aims to control money supply, contain inflation, stabilize exchange rates, and maintain balance of payments equilibrium. This helps support macroeconomic stability.
- Pakistan's economy grew reasonably well in recent years, with GDP growth reaching 4.04% in FY2015 and 4.71% in FY2016, despite slower global growth and economic challenges. Private sector credit expansion has helped manufacturing and industry.
- Broad money supply (M2) increased 6.93% during the period as net domestic assets grew. However, net foreign assets only saw modest growth as scheduled bank foreign assets declined slightly while SBP foreign assets grew.
The document discusses several topics related to the global economy and currencies. It provides projections for interest rates and GDP growth from the FOMC, ECB, and for various countries. It also discusses trends in commodity prices, currency exchange rates, bond yields, FDI flows, and other economic indicators for countries like the US, Eurozone, India. Key points mentioned are the flattening of the US yield curve pointing to long term uncertainties, expected tight crude oil market conditions, outlook for the Indian rupee, and monsoon rainfall forecast in India for 2018.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide ...Kyna Tsai
During 16–31 October, Indonesia estimated its growth rate for 2018 at 5.4% YoY within the budget that it recently established for the next financial year, with the government predicting that the country’s economic growth will accelerate gradually in comparison to 2017. In addition, the budget draft proposed to the Parliament of Malaysia for the next financial year estimated the country’s growth at 5.0–5.5% YoY, which remains at a high level despite minor deceleration. Another important activity took place in the southern region of the Philippines, where a five-month-long conflict between a militant group operating under the name “Islamic State” (IS) and the country’s military came to a close.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Indonesia Continues to Lower Interest Rates; Vietn...Kyna Tsai
During 16–30 September, amongst the participating countries in ASEAN, the central banks of Indonesia,
Thailand, and the Philippines each held monetary policy meetings, and Indonesia’s second consecutive
decision to lower its interest rates is worth attention. Furthermore, Vietnam exhibited a high real GDP
growth rate for 3Q, recording 7.5%. Please refer to the table attached at the end of this report for an
overview of the macroeconomic indices for ASEAN economies released during 16–30 September.
The document provides a summary of recent news articles mentioning Balmer Lawrie and related topics. It includes reports that:
1) The IMF says the global economic outlook is gloomier than previously projected due to high inflation, China's slowing growth, and disruptions from the Ukraine war.
2) An analysis by Deloitte India estimates India will see 6.5-7.1% economic growth in the current fiscal year despite rising inflation and global slowdown risks.
3) The RBI estimates India's economy grew between 6.1-6.3% in the second quarter, putting annual growth on track to be around 7% for fiscal year 2023.
The document provides an overview of the Thai economy in 2014 and an outlook for 2015 based on an annual report from the Office of Industrial Economics. It summarizes key points from the report, including that Thailand's GDP grew 0.6% in Q3 2014 driven by non-agricultural sectors, and industrial production is forecast to increase 2-3% in 2015. It also reviews economic factors and projections for different industries in Thailand for 2015, anticipating growth in industries like automotive, electronics and chemicals based on improving global economic conditions.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Malaysia and the Philippines Undergoing Rapid Grow...Kyna Tsai
Of the critical macroeconomic indicators released for the ASEAN economies from 16–31 August, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines announced their real economic growth rates (GDP growth rates) for 2Q 2017. The central banks of Indonesia and Thailand also held monetary policy meetings.
This report will focus on and look into the indices and economic policies of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines, as well as the stirring political trends concerning the former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
This weekly media update provides summaries of news articles related to the Indian economy from June 27th to July 3rd. Key points include:
- India is projected to remain the fastest growing major economy with an average growth rate of 6.7% over the next three years according to S&P Global Ratings.
- The RBI governor said the Indian economy has achieved a "solid recovery" and is among the fastest growing large economies.
- India's current account deficit decreased significantly in the January-March quarter to 0.2% of GDP due to a smaller trade deficit and increased services exports.
- Balmer Lawrie is mentioned in various news articles related to the cold chain sector and the interview of its C&MD is featured in an industry magazine.
- The Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5-7% despite global economic challenges, and there is no need to aggressively accelerate growth at this time.
- Several Indian companies have risen in the Fortune Global 500 rankings, with ONGC jumping 32 places to 158th, reflecting growth in its revenues.
- Nomura raised its forecasts for India's 2022 consumer price inflation to 5.5%, fiscal deficit to 6.5% of GDP, and current account deficit to 1.7% of GDP, due to higher global energy costs.
- Brickwork Ratings revised its India GDP growth estimate for FY2022 upward to 10-10.5% from 9% earlier, expecting a recovery supported by government spending and improving consumption.
- The RBI governor said tax cuts on fuel will help meet the inflation target of 5.3% and the growth target of 9.5% looks achievable, though global factors pose risks.
India's economy is showing signs of recovery driven by increased public spending, strong urban consumer demand, and manufacturing growth. Three months of solid industrial growth, pickup in investment, robust indirect tax collections, and signs of growth in mining suggest government measures to boost the economy through reforms and infrastructure spending are having an impact. Going forward, falling interest rates, foreign investment, and increased spending ahead of pay increases are expected to further fuel economic growth. The pace of recovery is gradual but trends are positive across many sectors.
- Business activity in India hit a record high in the week ending August 8 according to Nomura's Business Resumption Index, nearing pre-pandemic levels as mobility increased.
- The finance ministry said the economic impact of the second COVID wave is likely to be muted with signs of economic rejuvenation and sustained vaccination could reduce severity of future waves.
- India's industrial production grew 13.6% in June from a year ago due to low base effects as lockdowns last year halted activity, while retail inflation eased to 5.59% in July.
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Asean macroeconomic trends malaysia and the philippines undergoing rapid growth; indonesia lowered interest rate
1. 01
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia Ramping Up Infrastructure Development; Malaysia Maintaining Interest Rate
By Takashi Kawabata - SPEEDA Chief Asia Economist,
Translated by Yiqing Wang
During 1–15 September, the Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (Nikkei PMI), a leading
indicator for economic conditions, was announced for each ASEAN economy, amongst other critical
macroeconomic indicators. Also during that time, the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia,
BNM) held the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting, while Indonesia began ramping up its
infrastructure development and construction. Please refer to the table attached at the end of the
report for an overview of the macroeconomic indices for ASEAN economies.
20170925
2. 02
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia Ramping Up Infrastructure Development; Malaysia Maintaining Interest Rate
Indonesia: Noticeable Progress in Infrastructure Development
Although Indonesia’s retail sales decreased by 3.3% YoY in July, this is thought to be a reactionary
decline from the strong consumption activities that lasted until the Lebaran holiday, which marks the
end of the fasting month of Ramadan in the Islamic calendar, as mentioned in the previous report.
As the period of Ramadan, which is determined based on the Islamic lunar calendar, changes every
year in the Gregorian calendar (e.g. 2016 Ramadan: 6 June–5 July; 2017 Ramadan: 26 May–24 June),
statistical comparisons on a year-on-year basis tend to be irregular.
Inflation rate (CPI) growth continued to slow for the second consecutive month from its peak level of
4.4% YoY in June, standing at 3.8% YoY in August. Moreover, core CPI growth decelerated for the fifth
consecutive month to 3.0% YoY in August from the 3.4% YoY recorded in February. Overall, the country
is undergoing gradual inflation with the exception of food and energy prices.
Apart from economic indicators, Indonesia has been progressing with its infrastructure development
through, for example, the construction and maintenance of airports and harbours. Local media has
also been reporting new projects with specific dates and periods provided, including those facilitated
by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
3. 03
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia Ramping Up Infrastructure Development; Malaysia Maintaining Interest Rate
Lately, the construction projects for a high-speed railway that connects Jakarta and Bandung, which is
led by China, and a new airport in Karawang, West Java are reported to have been facing difficulties.
Major news and updates in connection with the country’s infrastructure projects are summarised
below.
- The completion rate for the construction of a high-speed railway connecting Soekarno–Hatta
International Airport and Indonesia’s capital city Jakarta reached 82% (according to Budi Karya
Sumadi, the Minister of Transportation).
- The expense for the remodelling of Terminal 2 at Soekarno–Hatta International Airport is
estimated to reach IDR 3.2 trillion (USD 240.96 million). The remodelling work, despite a lack of a
detailed time frame, is scheduled to start after the construction of Terminal 3 is launched. The
construction of Terminal 3, originally planned for April 2017, was postponed due to the significant
delay in land acquisition. The construction of Terminal 4 is planned for 2019 (according to Angkasa
Pura, an Indonesia state-run airport management enterprise).
- The construction of Patimban Port, located in Subang, West Java Province, is expected to be
launched in early 2018, funded jointly by the JICA (providing a loan of roughly JPY 109.7 billion, or
USD 1.0 billion) and the Indonesian government (public budget of USD 90 million). The Phase I
and Phase II construction works are planned to be completed in 2019 and 2023, respectively
(according to the Ministry of Transportation).
- The completion rate of the redevelopment project (Phase I) for Kuala Tanjung Port in North
Sumatra Province has reached around 80% (according to state-owned port operator Pelindo I).
- The Jakarta Light Rail Transit (LRT) project is expected to conclude a funding contract in November
2017 (according to Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs).
- The construction of Bogor-Sukabumi double track railway is scheduled to begin within 2017, with
the total investment value amounting to IDR 400 billion, or USD 30.12 million (according to Budi
Karya Sumadi, the Minister of Transportation).
4. 04
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia Ramping Up Infrastructure Development; Malaysia Maintaining Interest Rate
Despite the major news of China winning the bid for the construction of high-speed railways in
Indonesia, the project is currently beleaguered with dim prospects. Photo by Reuters/Aflo
- For the high-speed rail connecting the capital city of Jakarta and Bandung, West Java, existing lines
will likely be used instead of building new tracks due to the land acquisition obstacle, as per a
meeting between Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla and Indonesian Transportation Minister
Budi Karya Sumadi.
- The development of a new airport in Karawang, West Java, extending southeast of Jakarta, was
halted with no specific date of restart, as the provincial government decided to prioritise the
construction of Kertajati Airport in Majalengka (according to Agus Santoso, Director General of Air
Transportation).
5. 05
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia Ramping Up Infrastructure Development; Malaysia Maintaining Interest Rate
Thailand: Whether or Not Consumer Sentiment Will Improve Is Critical
Thailand’s August BCI improved slightly to 50.7 from 50.3 in the previous month, exceeding 50 for four
months straight and indicating a sound business environment. CCI also continued to increase to 74.5
in August.
However, consumer confidence has been levelling off over the long term, and the possibility of an
instant, significant recovery might be remote. Despite an upturn in business sentiment from the supply
side, whether or not the demand side will follow the lead with consumers becoming willing to spend
requires further attention.
6. 06
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia Ramping Up Infrastructure Development; Malaysia Maintaining Interest Rate
Malaysia: Maintaining Interest Rate Amidst Rapid Economic Growth
BNM held the MPC Meeting and decided to maintain the policy interest rate at the current level of
3.00%.
According to the Monetary Policy Statement, the current policy interest rate level is appropriate with
no need of change in light of the high GDP growth rate for 2Q (5.8% YoY) and stable commodity prices.
Furthermore, BNM predicts that the full-year GDP growth rate for 2017 will likely exceed the projection
of 4.8% YoY, driven by favourable exports.
On 6 September, Malaysia announced its July export value, which experienced striking growth by
30.9% YoY to reach MYR 78.6 billion. This is attributable to the recovery in crude oil prices, rising
exports for the country’s major export products of palm oil and natural gas, and a favourable trend for
semiconductor exports alongside the increasing demand for the global IT sector.
7. 07
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia Ramping Up Infrastructure Development; Malaysia Maintaining Interest Rate
The Philippines: Mainland China and Hong Kong Increasing Presences Amongst
All Export Destinations
The Philippines released its balance of trade for July with a deficit of USD 1.65 billion, which narrowed
from the USD 1.99 billion recorded in June.
Exports showed a substantial increase of 10.4% YoY to USD 5.28 billion; electronic devices, which
account for more than half of the country’s consumer product exports, expanded the most by 11.8%
YoY, driving the overall exports.
Exports to Japan, the country’s largest export destination, decreased by 6.1% YoY, but those to Hong
Kong and Mainland China reported remarkable growth by 32.5% and 18.2%, respectively. Over the
long term, it is increasingly likely that the two regions will take over and become the Philippines’ largest
trade partners.
9. 09
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia Ramping Up Infrastructure Development; Malaysia Maintaining Interest Rate
The Central Bank of the Philippines (The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, BSP) released the CCI for 3Q on
10 September, and the figure showed a slight decline compared to the previous quarter to 10.2 from
13.1. However, it should be noted that the statistical method the country adopts for the calculation of
CCI is different from other economies, under which the figure represents the value of the proportion
of respondents with an optimistic view subtracted by that of respondents with a pessimistic view.
Hence, this figure should be interpreted as an expectation index, and with this in the background, the
CCI denotes a continued, strong consumer sentiment in the country.
In addition, inflation increased by 3.1% YoY, retail price index (RPI) rose by 3.3% YoY, and wholesale
price index (WPI) fell by 1.0%, all indicating a stable trend.
Singapore: Manufacturing Sector Retaining a Favourable Trend
Singapore released the Manufacturing PMI for August, which edged up to 51.8 from 51.0 in the
previous month, and has remained favourable at above 50 for 12 months straight since September
2016. The August Nikkei PMI also improved to 53.2 from 51.3 in July, hitting a record high since May
2016, when it first exceeded 50. The country’s 2Q GDP growth rate shows that the manufacturing
sector expanded by 2.8% YoY. Overall, the two types of PMI both suggest the sector is buoyant at
present.
The unemployment rate for 2Q levelled off at 2.2% from the previous quarter, with no particular points
of concern.
10. 10
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia Ramping Up Infrastructure Development; Malaysia Maintaining Interest Rate
Summary and Key Focus in the Next Report
During 1–15 September, Malaysia released numerous critical indicators, including a sustained policy
interest rate at 3.00% and a striking increase of over 30% in exports compared to the previous year.
These figures suggest the country’s economic growth will remain favourable throughout 3Q.
Likewise, Singapore’s economic prospect is optimistic in light of the healthy indicators for the
manufacturing sector (Manufacturing PMI and Nikkei PMI), the key driver for the country’s economic
growth.
Thailand’s business and consumer sentiments are both on a gradual recovery, but the latter still has
room for further improvement. The country is expected to experience a continued yet slow recovery
until the end of 2017.
The next report will cover the period from 16–30 September and focus on the following indicators in
particular (dates in the brackets are scheduled release dates).
Indonesia:
The Board of Governor’s Meeting of Bank Indonesia (Regular; 22 September)
11. 11
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Indonesia Ramping Up Infrastructure Development; Malaysia Maintaining Interest Rate
Thailand:
Balance of Trade (August; 25 September), Automobile Sales (August; 25 September), Monetary Policy
Committee Meeting (Regular; 27 September), Retail Sales/Individual Consumption (August; 30
September)
Malaysia:
Coincident Index (July; 21 September), Leading Index (July; 21 September)
The Philippines:
Monetary Policy Meeting (Regular; 21 September)
Vietnam:
Inflation Rate (September; 26 September), Real GDP Growth Rate (3Q; 28 September), Balance of
Trade/Retail Sales/Industrial Production (September; 28 September)
Singapore:
Balance of Trade (August; 18 September), Inflation (August; 25 September), Industrial Production
(August; 26 September)