Trump's trade policies aim to reduce trade deficits and bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. This includes withdrawing from TPP, renegotiating NAFTA, and imposing import taxes. While this may boost domestic industry in the short run, it could also spark trade wars and slow economic growth in partner countries like Mexico and China. The long term economic impacts are unclear as free trade has both benefits and costs for different sectors of the economy.
"Free" Trade without "Fair" Trade? -- how should the U.S. react to address ou...CharlesDaniels123
Current economic theory assumes that nations will voluntarily adopt “fair trade” practices.
The U.S. is in a strong bargaining position to negotiate balanced trade relative to partners that drive our trade deficit – in a trade war, they have a lot more to loose.
The U.S. should proactively adopt a tit-for-tat approach to foster trade liberalization and fairness or risk losing the “international trade war”.
Above ‘fair trade” enforcing mechanism would provide crucial time for retraining displaced labor and/or protecting sectors impacted by unfair practices.
Strong fundamentals drive US dealmaking despite macro-economic and political uncertainties. First-half activity remains on a par with 2016 as strong fundamentals continue to drive M&A.
Though US M&A faced challenges in H1 2017, the figures show that the market is active and vibrant. There were 2,413 deals worth US$588.5 billion recorded in H1 2017, up 0.5 percent by value compared to US$585.4 billion registered in H1 2016. If activity continues at its current level, US dealmaking is on track for another strong year.
Taiwan: Cross-border opportunities amid global changeWhite & Case
Disruptive forces continue to shape global markets, and Taiwanese businesses can take advantage of opportunities emerging amid these transformative trends.
"Free" Trade without "Fair" Trade? -- how should the U.S. react to address ou...CharlesDaniels123
Current economic theory assumes that nations will voluntarily adopt “fair trade” practices.
The U.S. is in a strong bargaining position to negotiate balanced trade relative to partners that drive our trade deficit – in a trade war, they have a lot more to loose.
The U.S. should proactively adopt a tit-for-tat approach to foster trade liberalization and fairness or risk losing the “international trade war”.
Above ‘fair trade” enforcing mechanism would provide crucial time for retraining displaced labor and/or protecting sectors impacted by unfair practices.
Strong fundamentals drive US dealmaking despite macro-economic and political uncertainties. First-half activity remains on a par with 2016 as strong fundamentals continue to drive M&A.
Though US M&A faced challenges in H1 2017, the figures show that the market is active and vibrant. There were 2,413 deals worth US$588.5 billion recorded in H1 2017, up 0.5 percent by value compared to US$585.4 billion registered in H1 2016. If activity continues at its current level, US dealmaking is on track for another strong year.
Taiwan: Cross-border opportunities amid global changeWhite & Case
Disruptive forces continue to shape global markets, and Taiwanese businesses can take advantage of opportunities emerging amid these transformative trends.
Covid19 has started a new era in the world for all of us this year in the early 2020, starting from last quarter of 2019. Here in this presentation, we take a look at what holds in our future in terms of global trade, economy, supply chain, production, employment, balance of power, politics, opportunities, money. #economist #covid19 #globaltrade #export #supplychains #finance #production #economy #2020 #protectionism #newnormality #newnormal2020 #globalbusiness
Terms of Trade: Understanding trade dynamics in the US is an Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report, commissioned by American Express, which examines key aspects of trading with the world’s largest economy from the perspective of foreign companies.
Increasing tariffs and duties on either raw material or finished goods just forces up prices - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Government used tariffs and duties as stop gap when it comes to votes
USA is gaining in-shoring jobs - http://www.stltoday.com/news/national/govt-and-politics/us-factories-expand-at-strongest-rate-in-almost-years/article_f503790c-d2f2-593f-b6b3-e469da499080.html
USA has made changes to tax codes and regulations, but more needs to be done in terms of policies
Rising Healthcare Costs - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/employers-to-spend-about-10000-on-health-care-for-each-worker.html
Rising Labour Costs - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-costs/u-s-labor-costs-increase-solidly-in-the-fourth-quarter-idUSKBN1FK1XR?il=0 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bonds-investments-analysis/costly-dollar-hedges-tarnish-u-s-bonds-for-overseas-investors-idUSKCN1GC0OF
Rising USD$ - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bonds-investments-analysis/costly-dollar-hedges-tarnish-u-s-bonds-for-overseas-investors-idUSKCN1GC0OF
Threats of trade war between china and usaM S Siddiqui
Free trade has supported the growth of the post-World War II world economy. If an all-out trade war were to break out between major powers, it would rock the foundations for growth. The United States and China are responsible for not only maintaining international security but also stabilizing the world economy.
Understanding the US-China Trade Relationship Peachy Essay
The US-China Business Council (USCBC) is pleased to have commissioned this study by Oxford Economics on the overall impact of China on the US economy.
During last year’s election campaign, the negative impact of trade with China, such as estimates of jobs lost, received considerable attention. In most cases, the presented data fails to provide a balanced assessment that incorporates the positive effect of the commercial relationship with China. Presenting only the negative impact and ignoring the jobs created, lower inflation, and other benefits of trade with China can lead to policies based on incomplete or misleading information.
The Trump threats and the answer of the Mexican productive sectorRicardo de la Peña
Facing Trump’s threats, investments should be concentrated in the supply chains, where the investment requirements reach 13 billion dollars annually.
To take advantage of this window of opportunity, it should be implemented a coordinated strategy between multinational companies and their local suppliers.
State of Transfer and Moving Industries in the Incoming Trump AdministrationTrevor_Churchill
Even before turning out as the Republican bet, Donald Trump’s idealistic principles about the shipping and logistics industry have been shunned by experts in the industry — as his protectionist and exclusivist agenda will change — if not utterly reinvent the economy.
How will Trump’s victory impact the global apparel industry?ThreadSol
This ppt will tell you various implications of Donald Trump’s trade policies on the global apparel industry. Check out the full article on http://stitchdiary.com/will-trumps-victory-impact-global-apparel-industry/
Covid19 has started a new era in the world for all of us this year in the early 2020, starting from last quarter of 2019. Here in this presentation, we take a look at what holds in our future in terms of global trade, economy, supply chain, production, employment, balance of power, politics, opportunities, money. #economist #covid19 #globaltrade #export #supplychains #finance #production #economy #2020 #protectionism #newnormality #newnormal2020 #globalbusiness
Terms of Trade: Understanding trade dynamics in the US is an Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report, commissioned by American Express, which examines key aspects of trading with the world’s largest economy from the perspective of foreign companies.
Increasing tariffs and duties on either raw material or finished goods just forces up prices - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Government used tariffs and duties as stop gap when it comes to votes
USA is gaining in-shoring jobs - http://www.stltoday.com/news/national/govt-and-politics/us-factories-expand-at-strongest-rate-in-almost-years/article_f503790c-d2f2-593f-b6b3-e469da499080.html
USA has made changes to tax codes and regulations, but more needs to be done in terms of policies
Rising Healthcare Costs - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/employers-to-spend-about-10000-on-health-care-for-each-worker.html
Rising Labour Costs - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-costs/u-s-labor-costs-increase-solidly-in-the-fourth-quarter-idUSKBN1FK1XR?il=0 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bonds-investments-analysis/costly-dollar-hedges-tarnish-u-s-bonds-for-overseas-investors-idUSKCN1GC0OF
Rising USD$ - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bonds-investments-analysis/costly-dollar-hedges-tarnish-u-s-bonds-for-overseas-investors-idUSKCN1GC0OF
Threats of trade war between china and usaM S Siddiqui
Free trade has supported the growth of the post-World War II world economy. If an all-out trade war were to break out between major powers, it would rock the foundations for growth. The United States and China are responsible for not only maintaining international security but also stabilizing the world economy.
Understanding the US-China Trade Relationship Peachy Essay
The US-China Business Council (USCBC) is pleased to have commissioned this study by Oxford Economics on the overall impact of China on the US economy.
During last year’s election campaign, the negative impact of trade with China, such as estimates of jobs lost, received considerable attention. In most cases, the presented data fails to provide a balanced assessment that incorporates the positive effect of the commercial relationship with China. Presenting only the negative impact and ignoring the jobs created, lower inflation, and other benefits of trade with China can lead to policies based on incomplete or misleading information.
The Trump threats and the answer of the Mexican productive sectorRicardo de la Peña
Facing Trump’s threats, investments should be concentrated in the supply chains, where the investment requirements reach 13 billion dollars annually.
To take advantage of this window of opportunity, it should be implemented a coordinated strategy between multinational companies and their local suppliers.
State of Transfer and Moving Industries in the Incoming Trump AdministrationTrevor_Churchill
Even before turning out as the Republican bet, Donald Trump’s idealistic principles about the shipping and logistics industry have been shunned by experts in the industry — as his protectionist and exclusivist agenda will change — if not utterly reinvent the economy.
How will Trump’s victory impact the global apparel industry?ThreadSol
This ppt will tell you various implications of Donald Trump’s trade policies on the global apparel industry. Check out the full article on http://stitchdiary.com/will-trumps-victory-impact-global-apparel-industry/
How nafta has helped american manufacturingNovaLink
If you have enjoyed prosperity with competitive goods from your business, and care about the future of American manufacturing, you should be supporting NAFTA.
Hello people!
During my final year of my undergraduate degree at The University of Manchester, I was lucky enough to write an equity analyst report about how political risk can affect a company's value.
I hope you will enjoy reading this report!
9 International Trade and Immigration Elite–Mass ConflictThe eli.docxevonnehoggarth79783
9 International Trade and Immigration Elite–Mass Conflict
The elite model portrays public policy as a reflection of the interests and values of elites. The model does not necessarily require that elites and masses be locked in conflict—conflict in which elites inevitably prevail at the expense of masses. Rather, the model envisions elites determining the direction of public policy, with the masses largely apathetic and poorly informed and/or heavily influenced by elite views. The model also acknowledges that elites may choose to pursue “public regarding” policies that benefit masses. Nonetheless, critics of the elite model often demand proof of elite–mass conflict over public policy and the subsequent shaping of policy to reflect elite preferences over mass well-being. Indeed, critics often demand proof that elites knowingly pursue policies that benefit themselves while hurting a majority of Americans. While this is not a fair test of elite theory, there is ample evidence that on occasion elites do pursue narrow self-serving interests.
In describing immigration and international trade policy, we rely on the elite model. Arguably, U.S. policy, especially in international trade, serves the interests of the nation’s largest multinational corporations at the expense of average American workers. We will argue that global trade policies have lowered average earnings and increased inequality in America. We will also argue that masses and elites have very different policy preferences regarding immigration.
The Global Economy
International trade—the buying and selling of goods and services between individuals and firms located in different countries—has expanded very rapidly in recent decades. Today, almost one-quarter of the world’s total output is sold in a country other than the one in which it was produced. Today the United States exports about 12 percent of the value of its gross domestic product (GDP) and imports about 17 percent.1 Exports and imports were only about 10 percent of GDP in 1980 (see Figure 9–1). Global competition heavily impacts the American economy.
FIGURE 9–1 U.S. World Trade
The “trade deficit”—the difference between what Americans import from abroad and what they export—has become wider over the years.
SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis, www.bea.gov.
Currently, America’s leading trading partners are Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, Germany, Taiwan, Great Britain, South Korea, France, and Italy (see Figure 9–2). Note that some of these nations (Canada, Japan, Germany, for example) are advanced industrialized economies not unlike our own. But trade with developing countries (Mexico, China, Taiwan, South Korea, for example) is growing rapidly. And, as we shall see, it is trade with these nations that raises the most serious problems for America’s labor force.
Years ago America’s principal imports were oil and agricultural products not grown in the United States, for example, coffee. Today, however, our largest dollar-value import.
The United States Turns Inward: Thoughts on US Trade Policy and US-Asian Trade Relations by Keith Maskus
http://iems.ust.hk/events/insights/maskus-united-states-turns-inward-thoughts-on-us-trade-policy-and-us-asian-trade-relations
United States Trade Policy Update – and the impact on NAFTA and TPPJason Prescott
United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) President Julie Hughes will provide an update on the key issues and developments in the U.S. trade policy, including NAFTA re-negotiation, European free trade and other current or pending free trade agreements.
The past year has seen a high level of activity on the trade policy front with existing trade arrangements under fire (NAFTA), pending agreements being disrupted (TPP) and important new agreements (CETA) coming into force and other policy issues from the perspective of the United States.
If your company imports or exports apparel or is affected by changing import and export patterns this is a talk you will want to see.
Chapter11Economic Instruments271Dateline New NAFTADJinElias52
Chapter11
Economic Instruments
271
Dateline: New NAFTA
During his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly referred to the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as “the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere.” (See the Historical Lesson at the end of this section for details about this agreement.) He promised that on his first day in office he would announce plans to renegotiate it.
Day one came and went with no NAFTA announcement. Instead, Trump’s rhetoric suggested otherwise; he threatened to abandon NAFTA much as he had already done with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). However, in late March 2017, the administration circulated an eight-page draft that did not contain a threat of withdrawal. Instead, it put forward 272negotiating points consistent with the views of many free trade pro-NAFTA Republicans in Congress.
Just under thirty days later, the pendulum swung in the opposite direction and then back toward negotiation. First, stories emerged that Trump was going to announce a new executive order putting the withdrawal process in motion. This set off a wave of activity, including phone calls from the president of Mexico, the prime minister of Canada, and congressional Republican’s warning against doing so. By that evening, Trump announced that he would not withdraw. The White House asserted that the confusion following word of his upcoming announcement had energized Mexico and Canada into coming to the negotiating table. Critics noted that Canada and Mexico were already at the table, as they had already made trade concessions and were waiting for the United States. Some two weeks later, on May 18, Trump sent a short notice to Congress indicating that he planned to renegotiate NAFTA, a legal necessity (Congress had to be given ninety days’ notice of such a decision). Unlike the earlier draft sent to Congress, this announcement was vague regarding the changes that would be sought.
Negotiations began in August, with the Trump administration defining NAFTA as having “fundamentally failed.” Each country brought its own set of concerns to the table. The United States was concerned with reducing the trade deficit, forcing carmakers to use more parts made in the United States, and increasing U.S. influence in NAFTA’s dispute resolution process. Canada’s main concerns were with low wages in Mexico and right-to-work laws that weakened labor unions. Among Mexico’s primary concerns was revitalization of its energy industry. All three countries agreed that NAFTA had to be modernized to take telecommunications and digital trade into account. This was not seen as difficult, since such provisions had already been incorporated into the TPP and could now be placed into the new NAFTA agreement. More contentious were calls by the United States for a sunset clause that would allow the treaty to end after five years unless all three countries agreed to renew it.
Negotiations dragged on into the spring of 2018. President Trump ...
Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...Christiana Wu
Vietnam’s budget deficit is growing amidst dwindling crude oil revenue and ballooning public debt. Will the proceeds from the divestments of multi-billion dollar state-owned companies and highly controversial across-the-board tax hikes proposal be enough to balance the state’s finances? Will the mega sales of Government’s stakes in Vinamilk, Sabeco, Habeco, Petrolimex, Vietnam Airlines, and other corporations be in time to provide desperately needed capital? | For more reports like this? Follow SPEEDA on Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/showcase/3687396/ or visit https://goo.gl/VfHswA
Asean macroeconomic trends malaysia and the philippines undergoing rapid grow...Christiana Wu
During 1–15 September, the Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (Nikkei PMI), a leading indicator for economic conditions, was announced for each ASEAN economy, amongst other critical macroeconomic indicators. Also during that time, the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia, BNM) held the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting, while Indonesia began ramping up its infrastructure development and construction. Please refer to the table attached at the end of the report for an overview of the macroeconomic indices for ASEAN economies.
Japan's retail industry is faced with numerous issues including inefficient store operations and inventory control, but the emergence of IoT-based services and smart technologies is expected to bring changes. With advancements in robotics, experiments with automated checkout, and an ambition to further the proliferation of RFID tags, will Japan be able to revolutionise its retail sector?
Malaysia Plans Cashless Society for 2020 — Is it Out of Reach?Christiana Wu
In Malaysia's Financial Sector Blueprint 2011-2020, Bank Negara Malaysia set itself a target to reach 200 e-payments per capita by 2020E from just 44 in 2011. In retrospect, could this target be far-fetched? Are their current efforts sufficient to make their cashless dream a reality?
Next-Generation Agriculture: What Role Will “Smart” Technology Play?Christiana Wu
Faced with issues such as decreased production and an insufficiency of workers, the agriculture industry is in need of enhanced productivity and efficient distribution methods. The role that technology will play in creating “smart” operations is key going forward, with management systems and automated machinery already appearing on the market.
The internet of things: Taking the technology and communication space by st...Christiana Wu
The Internet of Things (IoT) is an emerging topic of technical, social, and economic significance. Everyday objects such as consumer products, cars, and industrial components are being combined with internet connectivity and powerful data analysis capabilities that promise to transform the way we work, live, and play. The projections for growth in IoT are impressive, with some anticipating as many as 100 billion connected IoT devices and a global value of over USD 11 trillion by 2025E.
With such unprecedented growth, which sectors might benefit the most? Find out more on how IoT is changing the landscape of IT and bringing in lucrative opportunities along the value chain.
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
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how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
The new type of smart, sustainable entrepreneurship and the next day | Europe...
Will the New Era of Trade Protectionism Under the Trump Regime Make America Great Again?
1. 1
Will the New Era of Trade Protectionism Under the
Trump Regime Make America Great Again?
Kanchana Nirupamala
Global Research and Analysis Team 2017-05-31
2. 2
Will the New Era of Trade Protectionism Under the Trump Regime
Make America Great Again?
The election of Republican candidate, Donald Trump, as the 45th President of the USA in November
2016 marked a new era of trade protectionism. In his inaugural address, President Trump announced
his “America First,” policy, effectively advocating a retreat from its traditional global leadership role in
promoting more open trade. These sentiments mirror a global movement towards protectionism as
evidenced by the British referendum to leave the EU (Brexit) and the wave of nationalism and anti-
immigration sweeping across Europe. President Trump’s economic agenda to make America Great
Again included several restrictive trade measures ranging from abandoning (TPP) and renegotiating
multilateral free trade agreements (NAFTA), to imposing hefty import taxes on errant trading partners
whose actions harm American jobs.
In our view, the net impact of these restrictive trade measures are likely to be positive on the US
economy as the benefits to domestic manufacturers and American workers via import substitution and
reshoring outweigh the costs of protectionism, such as higher prices for consumers and slowdown in
trade activity. However, from an Asia-Pacific Economic Corporation (APEC) perspective, which has been
repeatedly accused of unfair trade practices, US trade protectionism poses significant downside risks,
with major ramifications for Mexico, Canada and China due to their high exposure to the US market.
While economic growth of these countries would be in jeopardy due to the slowdown in trade and
remittances inflows, possible trade wars between China and the USA would have knock-on effects for
other countries that export heavily to China such as Taiwan and Malaysia.
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Will the New Era of Trade Protectionism Under the Trump Regime
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Trump's America First Policy: A Move Towards Trade Protectionism
“From this day forward, it’s going to be only America first, America first. Every decision on trade, on taxes,
on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We will
follow two simple rules: buy American and hire American.”
-Donald Trump, 45th US President
In his inaugural address after the election as the 45th US President, Donald Trump announced his foreign
policy, “America First,” emphasising American nationalism in international relations, which effectively
withdraws the nation from its global leadership role. This includes several trade protectionist measures which
are anticipated to be implemented during his tenure over 2017-21 with the aim of ending an era of
unfavourable trade balances and manufacturing job losses.
Source: by UZABASE based on various materials
These sentiments mirror a global movement from liberalisation towards protectionism, which turned into a
dominant trend all over the world, post the 2008 global financial crisis with governments taking steps to
recover from the liquidity glut and financial weakness. The British referendum to leave the EU (Brexit) and
nationalist and anti-immigration movements across Europe are the most recent instances of the world’s
movement towards protectionism.
America First Policy
Abandoning and Renegotiating
Multilateral Free Trade
Agreements
Withdrawing the USA from the
TPP agreement
Renegotiating two-decades-old
NAFTA
Considering bilateral trade
agreements with trading
partners such as Japan
Imposing Hefty Import Taxes on
Trading Partners that Violate
Trade Agreements and Harm
American Workers
China- Labelled as a currency manipulator;
Using the threat of imposing 45% tariffs on
Chinese imports
Mexico- Proposing a 20% tax on Mexican imports
to finance the construction of a proposed wall
worth around USD 21.6 billion across the US –
Mexico border to avoid illegal Mexican
immigrants to the USA and reduce mounting
imports from the country
Border adjustment tax - Lowering the corporate
tax rate to 20% from 30% by adjusting or
removing export sales from the company's
taxable revenue and taxing imports consumed
domestically
Imposing 35% tax on the US companies
offshoring the production to other countries
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NAFTA: The Classic Free-Trade Quandary Yielding More Pain than Gain to the USA
The Largest Free Trade Agreement in the World, with Members Contributing to One-Fourth of Global GDP
NAFTA, a free trade agreement between three economic powers in the North American region-
Canada, Mexico, and the USA- came into force on 01 January 1994. It is the world’s largest free trade
agreement with its members contributing more than USD 20 trillion or 25% of the global GDP as of 2014.
NAFTA’s purpose was to encourage economic activity in the North American region by reducing
numerous tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers with a particular focus on those related to agriculture, textiles
and automobiles.
Cross Border Trade Flourished After NAFTA Implementation While Benefiting the US Auto Industry Through
Value Chain Integration
The NAFTA’s immediate aim to increase cross-border commerce in the North American region through
lowering or eliminating tariffs and reducing some non-tariff barriers, such as Mexican local-content
requirements was undoubtedly successful. Over 1993-15, the trade between these three countries almost
grew four-fold to USD 1,034 billion in 2015.
NAFTA Makes Significant Contribution to Growth in Cross-Border Trade
Source: Mexican Embassy in Canada
Note: Adjusted for inflation using Bureau of Statistics’ (BLS) core CPI
Furthermore, the NAFTA implementation benefited specific sectors such as the US automotive industry as it
enabled the integration of supply chains across North America. A 2011 working paper by the Hong Kong
Institute for Monetary Research estimated that an automobile imported from Mexico contains 40% US
content compared to 25% US content from Canada, 4% from China, and 2% from Japan giving an option for
US automobile makers to retain a significant share of production domestically. Furthermore, offshoring to
low-wage countries like Mexico enabled the industry to compete with Asian rivals.
The US Economy Experienced Profound Disruption with Mounting Trade Deficits, Manufacturing Job Losses
and Illegal Immigration
Staggering Trade Deficit with Mexico and Canada since NAFTA Implementation
Nevertheless, since the NAFTA implementation, the USA registered trade deficits with Canada and
Mexico, the second-and third-largest trading partners after China. The USA continues to import more
than it exports from NAFTA partners, resulting in widening trade deficits thereby exerting growing
pressure on the balance of payment (BOP).
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Canada and Mexico: The Second-and Third-Largest Trade Partners of the USA, 2016
Source: US Census Bureau
The Top Trade Commodities of the USA with NAFTA Partners, 2015
Source: Office of the United States Trade Representatives
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US-Canada Trade Slowed Down in 2009 Due to the Recession Resulting in a Four-Fold Reduction in the
Trade Deficit
Source: US Census Bureau
The US Trade Deficit with Mexico Quadrupled Over 1995-16
Source: US Census Bureau
Around 30% Manufacturing Job Losses with Profound Disruptions in Textile and Automobile
Industries
When former President, Bill Clinton signed the bill authorising the NAFTA in 1993, he said the trade
deal means “jobs, American jobs, and good-paying American jobs”. Contrary to his expectations, the
USA witnessed around 30% drop in manufacturing employment to 12.3 million jobs at the end of 2016
from a high of 16.8 million jobs at the end of 1993. Whether the NAFTA is directly responsible for this
decline is difficult to say, (automation is also a key reason for the manufacturing job losses).
Nevertheless, industries, which were more exposed to the removal of tariff and non-tariff trade
barriers such as textile, apparel and automotive are usually considered to be the hardest-hit by the
agreement. This is due to the low wages prevalent in the NAFTA partners (the average wage of a
Mexican factory worker is around USD 4 per day compared to around USD 70 for a US factory worker
as of 2016) making imports and offshoring relatively cheaper to the USA in a free trade environment,
thus translating into both domestic production and job losses. Mexico is currently the top offshoring
destination for US companies followed by China owing to the low wage rates and fewer government
regulations. All major American car makers including Ford and General Motors have factories in
Mexico and prior to Trump's twitter campaign against offshoring, a few auto companies were openly
planning to ship more jobs abroad.
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The US Manufacturing Jobs Remain Well Below Pre-NAFTA Levels Despite Slowly Rising Over 2010-16
Source: The US Department of Labour
Automotive Manufacturing Jobs on a Recovery Path, Yet Below Pre-NAFTA Levels
Source: The US Department of Labour
Illegal Immigrants Resulted in Massive Wealth Transfer Out of the USA by Means of Remittances
Part of the justification for the NAFTA was that it would reduce illegal immigration from Mexico to the
USA through the gradual convergence in wages and living standards in Mexico via uniting the US and
Mexican markets. Yet the implementation didn’t results in the expected reductions. Mexico is the
origin of the largest immigrant group in the USA, accounting for 27.6% of the foreign-born population,
which was 42.4 million in 2014. Over half of all Mexican immigrants reside in the USA illegally and
constitute nearly 60% of the unauthorised immigrants in the country.
Mexican Immigrants to the USA Slowed Down Over 2005-14 Subsequent to a Rapid
Rise Since 1980
Source: US Census Bureau
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Mexican Immigrants Typically Tend to Work in Unskilled Occupations, 2014
Source: US Census Bureau
Furthermore, a significant transfer of wealth has occurred out of the USA to Mexico by means of remittances
from both legal and illegal immigrants. Mexico is the top partner of the USA in terms of both remittance
inflows and outflows. Yet, the outflows from the USA surpass inflows by a huge margin with the gap increasing
over time. Total remittances sent to Mexico from the USA via formal channels amounted to USD 24.3 billion
in 2015, representing 18.2% of the total remittances outflows. In contrast, the USA only received 1.9 billion
remittances inflows from Mexico, forming 26.8% of total remittances inflows. Remittances outflows can be
viewed as a leakage from the circular flow of income that reduces the amount of money that is available for
economic activity, thus hampering economic growth.
Mexico: The Top US Partner for Remittances Inflows and Outflows, 2015
Source: Pew Research Centre
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Remittance Inflows to Mexico on a Recovery Path after Deterioration During Global Financial Crisis
Source: World Bank
Note: Around 98% of the remittances inflows to Mexico occurs from the USA
In conclusion, while the economy as a whole saw a slight boost after the NAFTA implementation, certain
sectors and communities experienced profound disruption. As a result, the overall positive impact of the
NAFTA is barely perceptible, thus renegotiating the pact is quite essential from an economic point of view.
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is Unfavourable on Economic Grounds, but Strategically Crucial to
Counter China’s Regional Influence
TPP Binds 12 Nations Across the Pacific Rim Contributing to 36% of Global GDP
The TPP is a free trade agreement signed in February 2016 during former president Obama’s tenure binding
12 nations bordering the Pacific Ocean namely; Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New
Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the USA and Vietnam, but notably excluding China. The pact aimed to remove most
tariffs, some tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) and many nontariff barriers to goods and services, and trade and
investment between the 12 parties. Furthermore, the TPP covers a broad range of goods and services
including financial services and telecommunication and includes broader provisions on state-owned
enterprises (SOEs), labour protection standards and the protection of IP rights.
The TPP region is significant to the world economy in terms of GDP and trade. Countries involved produced
combined GDP of USD 28 trillion forming 36.0% of the global GDP as of 2014 outpacing the North American
region’s contribution of 25%. Top five signatory countries namely, the USA, Japan, Canada, Australia and
Mexico represented nearly 95% of the TPP region’s collective GDP in 2014 of which the USA accounted for the
largest share (62.2%) followed by Japan (16.4%) and Canada (6.4%). Furthermore, TPP countries accounted
for 28% of world merchandise imports and 24% of world merchandise exports in 2014.
TPP Countries Represent Nearly 36% of World’s GDP, 2014
Source: International Trade Commission, USA
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TPP: Strategically Crucial With Limited Economic Benefit
From a strategic point of view, the TPP is crucial to the USA since this enables the nation to build its power in
East Asia by creating an economic bulwark against the growing Chinese regional influence. For instance, TPP
would give the USA an excuse to intervene in trade disputes in the oil and natural gas-rich South China Sea,
where China has been piling up its military to back its incursions in that area. According to a report by the US
Defence Department in 2015, about 30% of global maritime trade passes through the South China Sea each
year, worth USD 5.3 trillion. Furthermore, the South China Sea is estimated to contain 17.7 billion tonnes of
crude oil compared to 13 billion tonnes in Kuwait as per the Ministry of Geological Resources and Mining of
the People's Republic of China.
China Steps in to Fill the Void Left by US Withdrawal from TPP
The withdrawal of the USA out of the TPP indirectly handed China an opportunity to step in with a
different regional free trade deal, known as Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to
expand its influence in the region. The proposed RECP, includes 16 Asia-Pacific states, including China,
Japan, India, and the member states of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) but
notably excluding the USA. However, RECP currently includes fewer disciplines and lower standards,
with the economic benefits to the member nations projected to be less than those from the TPP.
Japan Pushes Ahead with TPP
Japan, which had been cautious about moving ahead with the TPP without the USA changed its
position and showed its keenness implement the TPP with the remaining 11 signatories. The shift to
prioritising implementation of the multilateral deal can also be seen as a pushback against the US
pressure to negotiate a bilateral trade pact with Japan.
According to a study conducted by the US International Trade Commission in 2015, the TPP would result in
positive effects, albeit small, as a percentage of the overall size of the US economy. As a result, abandoning
the TPP is the right thing to do in terms of economic point of view. Thus, while the TPP abandonment is
strategically unwise for the USA, from an economic standpoint was likely to add little value to enhancing
American prosperity.
Economy-Wide Effects of TPP
Source: US International Trade Commission
Note: For the analysis, 2017 has been assumed as the year of TPP implementation. 2032 would be year 15 of the agreement, at which
time most TPP provisions would have been implemented. The changes are relative to baseline in 2032 and 2047, which assume no TPP
scenario. Dollar values are in 2017 prices.
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Broad Sector Level Effects of the TPP by 2032
Source: US International Trade Commission
Note: For the analysis, 2017 has been assumed as the year of TPP implementation. 2032 would be year 15 of the agreement, at which time most TPP
provisions would have been implemented. The changes are relative to baseline in 2032, which assume no TPP scenario. Dollar values are in 2017
prices.
The USA already runs trade deficits with most TPP partners. The TPP implementation would simply give
partners tariff-free access, further widening already large trade deficits. A report by the Roosevelt Institute,
an American think-tank also questions the economic benefit of the TPP. The report points out that since 2011
the US dollar is up 26%, making the US products 26% more expensive on foreign markets and making foreign
imports cheaper at home and abroad. Removing tariffs on imports would further depress the local industries
and force them to offshore or move out of the business, thus leading to losses in jobs and domestic production.
Effects of the TPP on US Trade by 2032
Source: US International Trade Commission
Note: For the analysis, 2017 has been assumed as the year of TPP implementation. 2032 would be year 15 of the agreement, at which time most TPP
provisions would have been implemented. The changes are relative to baseline in 2032, which assume no TPP scenario. Dollar values are in 2017
prices.
The USA Ran Trade Deficit with Half of TPP Nations as of 2016
Source: US Census Bureau
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Trump’s Import Tax Reforms: Protecting American Workers at the Expense of Consumers
China-Accounting for Almost Half of US Trade Deficit is Accused of Unfair Trade Practices
Raising import tariffs on China, which has been accused of unfair trade practices, is also part of Trump’s
protectionist economic agenda. These unfair trade practices, estimated to account for around 41% of China’s
competitive advantage over the USA as per the US National Trade Council range from the theft of the business
secrets and technology and currency devaluation to illegal subsidies to state-run businesses and dumping
cheap imports.
When analysing the bilateral trade between the two nations, the USA is undoubtedly at a disadvantage. This
is reflected in the growing trade deficit with China, the top trading partner and the import partner of the USA.
Over 2005-14, the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, sold its currency, Yuan and bought foreign
reserves such as the US dollar to deliberately keep the Yuan artificially low (Yuan per US dollar declined by
around 27% to 6.1 in January 2014 from 8.3 in July 2005), making Chinese imports relatively more attractive
(and providing an unfair advantage to China over other trading partners). On the other hand, US exports to
China’s export expanded at a higher CAGR compared to the imports growth over the period, yet; exports
remained only one-fourth of the imports in value terms, resulting in huge trade deficits with China. However,
since 2014 China abandoned its currency manipulation policy with the slowdown in economic growth and
moved in the opposite direction with the central bank selling its foreign reserves with the objective of
propping up Yuan to prevent a rapid decline. (Yuan per US dollar has increased by 13% to 6.9 in April 2017
from 6.1 in January 2014). Although the US trade deficit with China declined (by 5.5% YoY in 2016 after rising
by 6.5% YoY in 2015) after the change in policy, China still accounts for almost half of US trade deficit.
As a result, the president Trump has invoked the word “rape” in describing China’s trade policies and
threatened to impose a 45% tariff on Chinese imports (current average tariff rate on Chinese imports is around
of 3%). However, it should be noted that China doesn’t meet all criteria to be officially designated as a
currency manipulator. Labelling a country as a currency manipulator triggers a formal process, which involves
a series of negotiations between the Secretary of the US Treasury and China and fulfilment of three criteria
by the target. These criteria include:
a trade surplus in excess of USD 20 billion with the USA;
a trade surplus that amounts to more than 3% of US GDP; and
repeated depreciation of its own currency by buying foreign assets equalling 2% or more of its GDP
per year.
If after a year, the USA continues to assess China as a currency manipulator, the USA could then impose
various penalties on China, possibly limiting Chinese investment in the USA. Yet; China only fulfils the first
criterion, as China’s trade surplus with the USA continued to be in excess of the requirement, (around 17 times
higher than the requirement as of 2016). The second and third criteria are not relevant to China as the Chinese
surplus with the USA accounted for 1.9% of the US GDP as of 2016 and China has been pushing up its currency
since 2014.
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China Accounts for Around 21% of Total Imports to the USA, 2016
Source: US Census Bureau
China: The Third-Largest Export Partner of the USA, 2016
Source: US Census Bureau
The USA Witnessed Nearly Half of its Trade Deficit with China as of 2016
Source: US Census Bureau
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Top Export Products to China from the USA, 2016 Key Products Imported to the USA from China, 2016
Source: US Census Bureau
Chinese Yuan on an Uptrend Since 2014 Post Depreciation The USA Witnesses Mounting Trade Deficits With China
Over 2005-14
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Source: US Census Bureau
Canada is Blamed for Illegal Subsidising of Softwood Lumber Sales to the USA; Mexico Reprimanded for Illegal
Immigrants and Offshoring
Canada had been alleged for improperly subsidising the sale of softwood lumber products to the USA
(Canada’s share in the US lumber market is about 31.5% as of 2016).
The US Softwood Lumber Trade Deficit with Canada Grew Two-fold Over 2010-16
Source: UN Comtrade
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With the objective of avoiding illegal Mexican immigrants to the USA and discouraging imports, president
Trump proposed to construct a wall worth around USD 21.6 billion across the US-Mexico border, which is
expected to be financed by floating a 20% tax on all Mexican imports (majority of the products are currently
untaxed under NAFTA.) As per our calculation, a 20% tax on all Mexican imports (assuming all imports are
currently tax-free) would yield a tax revenue of around USD 58 billion, more than enough to construct the
wall. In addition, imposing 35% tax on the US companies that offshore its production to other countries is
under consideration. On April 24, 2017, Trump imposed countervailing duties ranging from 3-24% on the
softwood lumber imports from Canada and threatened to do the same on dairy imports.
The major argument in favour of protectionism is that it encourages import substitution and reshoring, thus
translating into narrowing trade deficits and manufacturing job gains over time. Given the huge trade deficits,
the USA runs with Mexico and China, imposing import taxes as high as 20% to 45%, would definitely discourage
imports, thus contributing to a notable reduction in trade deficits.
As per Kevin Lai, research head for Asia excluding Japan of Daiwa Capital Markets, a Hong Kong-based stock
brokerage firm, floating 45% tariffs on Chinese imports would lead to 87% fall in China's exports to the USA.
Similarly economists at HSBC led by Qu Hongbin predicted that the 45% tax would result in halving of Chinese
shipments to the USA. Furthermore, offshoring taxes would encourage reshoring, which would result in
regaining manufacturing jobs to the USA. This threat has already pushed three major automakers, namely
Italian-American FCA Group, Ford and Japanese Toyota to reshore their production back to the USA, who had
previously planned to move their production to Mexico.
Consumer Retail Prices Likely to Increase; Estimates by Industry Experts Believe up to 10% is Possible
Despite these benefits, trade protectionism is always associated with costs. The obvious danger is that if
Trump's policies are enacted in full, they will substantially increase domestic prices. Imposition of prohibitive
import taxes encourages domestic manufacturing. However, these would take some time to fully substitute
imports. The immediate impact would be price rises with the importing companies heaping as much of the
cost as possible on their customers.
As per Capital Economics, a London-based economic research consultancy firm, a 45% tariff on Chinese-made
goods could drive up the US retail prices on those goods by an average of about 10%. A study of the US
National Association of Home Builders found that a 15% tariff on lumber imports would result in an increase
in new home prices by 4.2%. On the other hand, imports also include manufacturing inputs, which are further
processed by domestic manufacturers. For example, automobile companies that assemble cars in the USA
typically import many of the parts from abroad. If those parts become much more expensive after imposition
of tariffs, prices would rise making the final car more expensive, less competitive with imports, and less likely
to compete in export markets.
In addition, imposing tariffs do not unequivocally protect American workers as the USA will be more exposed
to retaliations by its trade partners, who would also increase their own import tariffs. This may put the
American jobs in danger, as exporter firms could harshly suffer from the lower global demand for their
products. This is highly critical to consider, as most of the countries that export to the USA also import from
the USA (China, Canada, and Mexico being the top three). Consequently, the slowdown in the trade could
hamper the long-term US economic growth.
Trump’s Victory is APEC’s Loss with Major Ramifications for Mexico, Canada and China
As of 2016, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region - including Canada and Mexico as well as
countries from the Asia-Pacific - accounted for 67.7% of the US imports and 62.4% of the US exports, while
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the USA accounted for 17.8% of the region’s total exports and 10.4% of the region’s total imports. The “Trump
Effect on Asia” survey conducted between late November and December in 2016 by Harvey Nash, a global
recruitment consultancy and IT outsourcing firm also concluded that the growth outlook for the region is
gloomy after Trump’s victory.
30% of APEC Business Leaders Predicted an Economic Slowdown in the Region after Trump’s Victory, Dec
2016
Source: “Trump Effect on Asia” survey
Note: The survey polled 141 APAC business leaders
However, Trump’s impact on individual countries would differ based on the individual countries’ dependency
on the USA. The US share in APEC region’s exports varies across the countries, with Mexico and Canada
exporting more than 75% of their products while Vietnam, Japan and China shipping nearly 20% of their
products to the USA. These countries are likely to be more vulnerable to the decrease in US demand with
Trump’s move towards import barriers.
Mexico and Canada Exported More than 75% of their Products to the USA as of 2016
Source: UN Comtrade
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The Mexican Economy is Likely to be the Hardest-Hit by Trump's Policies on Trade and
Immigration
The USA is the largest export market for Mexico, accounting for more than 80% of total Mexican
exports and contributing 38% to the Mexico’s GDP as of 2015. Thus, renegotiating NAFTA and
imposing hefty import taxes on imports are likely to hamper Mexican exports to the USA, which
quadrupled since NAFTA implementation, thereby hampering the nation’s economic growth.
Furthermore, Trump’s rhetoric on Mexican immigrants and proposed wall across southern border
put the nation’s remittances inflows, which contributed nearly 3% of Mexican GDP as of 2015 at
jeopardy. Similarly, Trump’s reshoring efforts would hurt the Mexican automobile industry, the
world’s fourth-largest car exporter, which directly employs almost 900,000 workers across the
country (nearly 2% of the total employed person as of 2016). Owing to these downside risks, private
sector specialists surveyed by the Bank of Mexico in December 2016 estimated 1.6% GDP growth for
2017, a two-fold decrease from the estimate of 3.2% made at the beginning of 2016. While Trump’s
proposed policies are yet to be realised, currency markets have already reacted to the uncertainty
about Mexico’s economic future. The Mexican peso tumbled by around 14% over the three months
since the US presidential election in January 2017 to reach 18.8 pesos per US dollar on April 20, 2017
indicating less investment and slower economic growth prospects. Mexico's central bank has also
started to more actively intervene in order to combat rising inflation due to the low peso. It raised
interest rates by 50 basis points to a nearly 8-year high of 6.25% in February 2017 to combat rising
inflation (average inflation during the first three months of 2017 was around 5% above the
government target of 3% and average inflation of 2.8% in 2016).
Mexican Peso on a Free-Fall Since Trump’s Victory
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Canadian Economy to Suffer from Slowdown in Exports and Economic Growth
Similarly, Trump’s protectionism poses risks to the Canadian economy, which is dependent on the
USA for nearly 80% of its exports revenue, equivalent to 20% of Canadian GDP as of 2015. Thus any
trade barrier would hamper the nation’s export growth and simultaneously economic growth. The
vulnerability of the Canadian economy to the US trade protectionism was reflected through 1% drop
of the Canadian dollar against US dollar after Trump’s imposition of up to 24% countervailing duties
on Canadian softwood lumber imports.
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At Least 9% Shrinkage of Chinese Exports with Loss of GDP by Around 5%
China is also a major victim of the Trump’s trade protectionism. The USA being China’s biggest export
market capturing approximately 20% of total exports (equivalent to 3.7% of the Chinese GDP). As per
economists, China's overall exports are expected to shrink at least 9% if Trump carried through with
his tariff threat. Shen Jianguang, Chief Asia Economist at Mizuho Securities estimated that China's
exports had created 120 million jobs (around 16% of total employment), including 20 million (around
17%) making products for the US market. Thus, economists estimate that China's GDP could be
trimmed by 4.8% with any import barriers. On the other hand, if Trump’s actions result in
protectionist retaliations, this could suppress trade and, in a bleak scenario, could even lead to a
trade war between the world’s largest and second-largest economies, together accounting for
around 28% of global imports. A trade war and the negative impact thereof on China’s economic
growth would have knock-on effects for countries that export heavily to China such as Taiwan and
Malaysia, which are relatively large suppliers of intermediate goods to China, particularly electronics
(intermediate exports are about 1.5% and 1.0% of Taiwanese and Malaysian GDP’s respectively as of
2015).
Furthermore, Trump’s decision to move towards isolationism and reducing external engagements
will also leave a power vacuum in Southeast Asia, which an expansionist China would quickly fill
through China-backed regional free trade agreements, such as RCEP. However, the Chinese
dominance would not bring stability to the region as the smaller nations will lose out on their
negotiating power with China.