ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
During 16–31 October, Indonesia estimated its growth rate for 2018 at 5.4% YoY within the budget that it recently established for the next financial year, with the government predicting that the country’s economic growth will accelerate gradually in comparison to 2017. In addition, the budget draft proposed to the Parliament of Malaysia for the next financial year estimated the country’s growth at 5.0–5.5% YoY, which remains at a high level despite minor deceleration. Another important activity took place in the southern region of the Philippines, where a five-month-long conflict between a militant group operating under the name “Islamic State” (IS) and the country’s military came to a close.
The Union Budget 2018-19 is going to be the last full Budget of the incumbent government and will be keenly watched for the twin provisions of driving investment and growth on one hand while maintaining fiscal discipline on the other. CII expects Budget 2018-19 to focus on four key areas: investment revival, job creation, growth of the agricultural sector and development of the social sectors of education and healthcare. CII has recommended that the government stick to fiscal prudence which in turn will help in softening interest rates and boosting GDP growth in the near to medium-term. While a slippage from the budgeted target of 3.2 per cent of GDP fiscal deficit for FY18 looks imminent now, an attempt should be made to raise additional resources so as not to diverge from the targeted deficit level by a large magnitude. This month issue of CII Economy Matters focuses on Pre-Budget Expectations: 2018-19.
The Finance Minister has presented a realistic and pragmatic Budget aimed at striking the right chord with all segments of the society and successfully delivering on the nation’s expectations. The Budget has attempted the difficult task of deftly maintaining the fiscal deficit within prudent levels, boosting consumption spending and investment demand while enhancing welfare expenditure. The Finance Minister needs to be congratulated for maintaining a check on the fiscal deficit despite the overwhelming need to raise public expenditure to boost growth. The fiscal deficit of 3.5 per cent of GDP for Budget 2016-17 will be lowered to 3.2 per cent for the coming year. At the same time, it is commendable that the Budget reduced the revenue deficit to 1.9 per cent of GDP, while increasing capital expenditure by over 25 per cent. Adherence to the fiscal prudence imperatives will lay the foundation for long-term growth and CII appreciates this commitment.
The Economic Survey ruled out any over or underestimation of India's GDP growth rates following a methodology change in 2011. It analyzed GDP growth rates of 95 countries and found the methodology may have miscalculated growth in 51 countries during that period. The government budgeted the fiscal deficit at 3.5% of GDP for FY21, up from a revised 3.8% for FY20. Core sector growth recovered to 1.3% in December 2019 helped by expansion in coal, fertilizer and refinery production. The government plans infrastructure investments of Rs. 102 lakh crore during FY2020-25 under the National Infrastructure Pipeline.
It is widely accepted that Indian economy is recovering, albeit slowly, from the disruptions created by demonetization (November 2016) and implementation of GST (July 2017). The GDP growth is forecast to recover from below 6% in FY17 to more than 7% in FY19. At this rate, India will be the fastest growing economy amongst all major global economies.
The positives are all well known and appreciated by markets and global agencies, as the entire government machinery is busy marketing these.
Nonetheless, for investors, it is important to take a note of the red flags that are too conspicuous and could have serious repercussions on the sustainability of the economic recovery and hence corporate earnings.
“ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends” is a new series of SPEEDA reports released once every two weeks, compiled by Takashi Kawabata, our Chief Asia Economist. With macroeconomic indicators and financial policies as the fundamentals, the reports look into public economic policies when there are significant moves, as well as political and social issues that may affect economic and business trends.
The forthcoming Union Budget will be presented against the backdrop of heightened expecta- tions that the government would unravel reform-centric policies and action plan which would rejuvenate our growth drivers and transform the economy. In 2017, industry expects a reform- ist and visionary budget from the government. We would like to see a cut in corporate and personal income tax rates accompanied by higher public investments for which the resources will be made avail- able through various means such as disinvestment and asset recycling. The recent demonetisation of high value notes is expected to yield an increase in tax revenue as well as an increase in the tax base. Challenges such as slack domestic and global demand would need to be addressed, and urgent policy action is needed so that the economy can achieve a sustained and inclusive growth of around 8 per cent in the near future. On the domestic front, the contraction in industrial output in October 2016 is a matter of concern. How- ever, going forward, normal monsoons, which should improve rural demand, along with the lagged im- pact of interest rate reductions and 7th pay commission handouts are expected to cushion demand in the future and boost industrial activity. In a bright spot for the economy, both the inflation indices are ebbing down, providing relief to the policymakers. The softening of CPI and WPI inflation is attributed essentially to downward drift in the momentum of food prices assisted by favourable monsoon which has led to record food-grain output in the kharif season. The fall in prices could also be partly reflective of the demonetisation impact, which has led to lower demand in the economy due to a cash crunch. The moderate inflation scenario has rightly facilitated the RBI decision to retain the accommodative policy stance and will encourage RBI to further reduce rates. US Federal Reserve expectedly raised interest rate by 25 bps in first week of December 2016 — its first (and only) rate hike in 2016 and the second since the monetary policy normalization cycle began in December 2015. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judged that in light of realized and expected labour market conditions, as well as the progress on the inflation front, it was deemed ap- propriate to hike the Fed Funds rate. Given the resumption of the normalisation process, future policy moves are likely to be dependent on incoming data prints, which will remain critical. Any expansionary fiscal stimulus from the incoming regime at the White House may spur inflation, and cause a faster pace of rate hikes than anticipated.
The World Bank forecasts India's GDP growth to accelerate to 7.5% in 2019-20, driven by continued investment strengthening, improved exports, and resilient consumption. The IMF also estimates India's growth at 7.3% in 2019 and 7.5% in 2020, enabling it to retain its status as the fastest growing major economy. However, the IMF has revised downward its forecasts slightly compared to last year. Industrial production growth slowed to 0.1% in February, its lowest in 20 months, as manufacturing contracted amid muted demand. WPI inflation rose to 3.18% in March due to higher food and fuel prices.
This document provides a weekly media update containing news related to Balmer Lawrie and other public sector enterprises (PSEs) in India. The key news stories discussed are:
1. Prime Minister Modi stated that making India a $5 trillion economy by 2024 is a "challenging but achievable" goal and outlined priorities like job creation and poverty alleviation.
2. India's industrial output grew 3.4% in April, rebounding to a six-month high. Retail inflation rose slightly but remained below the central bank's target rate.
3. Exports grew 4% in May while imports rose 4.3%, widening the trade deficit to a six-month high of $
The Union Budget 2018-19 is going to be the last full Budget of the incumbent government and will be keenly watched for the twin provisions of driving investment and growth on one hand while maintaining fiscal discipline on the other. CII expects Budget 2018-19 to focus on four key areas: investment revival, job creation, growth of the agricultural sector and development of the social sectors of education and healthcare. CII has recommended that the government stick to fiscal prudence which in turn will help in softening interest rates and boosting GDP growth in the near to medium-term. While a slippage from the budgeted target of 3.2 per cent of GDP fiscal deficit for FY18 looks imminent now, an attempt should be made to raise additional resources so as not to diverge from the targeted deficit level by a large magnitude. This month issue of CII Economy Matters focuses on Pre-Budget Expectations: 2018-19.
The Finance Minister has presented a realistic and pragmatic Budget aimed at striking the right chord with all segments of the society and successfully delivering on the nation’s expectations. The Budget has attempted the difficult task of deftly maintaining the fiscal deficit within prudent levels, boosting consumption spending and investment demand while enhancing welfare expenditure. The Finance Minister needs to be congratulated for maintaining a check on the fiscal deficit despite the overwhelming need to raise public expenditure to boost growth. The fiscal deficit of 3.5 per cent of GDP for Budget 2016-17 will be lowered to 3.2 per cent for the coming year. At the same time, it is commendable that the Budget reduced the revenue deficit to 1.9 per cent of GDP, while increasing capital expenditure by over 25 per cent. Adherence to the fiscal prudence imperatives will lay the foundation for long-term growth and CII appreciates this commitment.
The Economic Survey ruled out any over or underestimation of India's GDP growth rates following a methodology change in 2011. It analyzed GDP growth rates of 95 countries and found the methodology may have miscalculated growth in 51 countries during that period. The government budgeted the fiscal deficit at 3.5% of GDP for FY21, up from a revised 3.8% for FY20. Core sector growth recovered to 1.3% in December 2019 helped by expansion in coal, fertilizer and refinery production. The government plans infrastructure investments of Rs. 102 lakh crore during FY2020-25 under the National Infrastructure Pipeline.
It is widely accepted that Indian economy is recovering, albeit slowly, from the disruptions created by demonetization (November 2016) and implementation of GST (July 2017). The GDP growth is forecast to recover from below 6% in FY17 to more than 7% in FY19. At this rate, India will be the fastest growing economy amongst all major global economies.
The positives are all well known and appreciated by markets and global agencies, as the entire government machinery is busy marketing these.
Nonetheless, for investors, it is important to take a note of the red flags that are too conspicuous and could have serious repercussions on the sustainability of the economic recovery and hence corporate earnings.
“ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends” is a new series of SPEEDA reports released once every two weeks, compiled by Takashi Kawabata, our Chief Asia Economist. With macroeconomic indicators and financial policies as the fundamentals, the reports look into public economic policies when there are significant moves, as well as political and social issues that may affect economic and business trends.
The forthcoming Union Budget will be presented against the backdrop of heightened expecta- tions that the government would unravel reform-centric policies and action plan which would rejuvenate our growth drivers and transform the economy. In 2017, industry expects a reform- ist and visionary budget from the government. We would like to see a cut in corporate and personal income tax rates accompanied by higher public investments for which the resources will be made avail- able through various means such as disinvestment and asset recycling. The recent demonetisation of high value notes is expected to yield an increase in tax revenue as well as an increase in the tax base. Challenges such as slack domestic and global demand would need to be addressed, and urgent policy action is needed so that the economy can achieve a sustained and inclusive growth of around 8 per cent in the near future. On the domestic front, the contraction in industrial output in October 2016 is a matter of concern. How- ever, going forward, normal monsoons, which should improve rural demand, along with the lagged im- pact of interest rate reductions and 7th pay commission handouts are expected to cushion demand in the future and boost industrial activity. In a bright spot for the economy, both the inflation indices are ebbing down, providing relief to the policymakers. The softening of CPI and WPI inflation is attributed essentially to downward drift in the momentum of food prices assisted by favourable monsoon which has led to record food-grain output in the kharif season. The fall in prices could also be partly reflective of the demonetisation impact, which has led to lower demand in the economy due to a cash crunch. The moderate inflation scenario has rightly facilitated the RBI decision to retain the accommodative policy stance and will encourage RBI to further reduce rates. US Federal Reserve expectedly raised interest rate by 25 bps in first week of December 2016 — its first (and only) rate hike in 2016 and the second since the monetary policy normalization cycle began in December 2015. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judged that in light of realized and expected labour market conditions, as well as the progress on the inflation front, it was deemed ap- propriate to hike the Fed Funds rate. Given the resumption of the normalisation process, future policy moves are likely to be dependent on incoming data prints, which will remain critical. Any expansionary fiscal stimulus from the incoming regime at the White House may spur inflation, and cause a faster pace of rate hikes than anticipated.
The World Bank forecasts India's GDP growth to accelerate to 7.5% in 2019-20, driven by continued investment strengthening, improved exports, and resilient consumption. The IMF also estimates India's growth at 7.3% in 2019 and 7.5% in 2020, enabling it to retain its status as the fastest growing major economy. However, the IMF has revised downward its forecasts slightly compared to last year. Industrial production growth slowed to 0.1% in February, its lowest in 20 months, as manufacturing contracted amid muted demand. WPI inflation rose to 3.18% in March due to higher food and fuel prices.
This document provides a weekly media update containing news related to Balmer Lawrie and other public sector enterprises (PSEs) in India. The key news stories discussed are:
1. Prime Minister Modi stated that making India a $5 trillion economy by 2024 is a "challenging but achievable" goal and outlined priorities like job creation and poverty alleviation.
2. India's industrial output grew 3.4% in April, rebounding to a six-month high. Retail inflation rose slightly but remained below the central bank's target rate.
3. Exports grew 4% in May while imports rose 4.3%, widening the trade deficit to a six-month high of $
The Economic Survey 2017-18 document provides an overview of the Indian economy in the previous fiscal year and outlook for the future. In the first half of 2017, India saw slow economic growth due to demonetization effects, GST implementation challenges, and falling agricultural prices. However, the economy showed signs of recovery in the second half as reforms took effect and exports increased. The survey highlights ongoing macroeconomic vulnerabilities around fiscal deficits and current accounts that rise with oil prices. It recommends policies like furthering GST implementation, resolving non-performing bank assets, and boosting manufacturing exports. India's GDP growth was 6.75% for 2017-18 and is projected to be 7-7.5% for 2018-19.
This document provides an overview of the current state of the Indian economy and its outlook. It discusses that after 18 months of contraction, exports are recovering and growing again, supported by a good monsoon leading to increased rural spending. Along with ongoing robust urban consumption, this means the economy now has four drivers of growth instead of just two. Most estimates project GDP growth of 7.4-8% for this fiscal year. Potential challenges include weak private investment and inflation remaining in a worrying range. The document also examines India's potential growth rate based on convergence theory and its institutional framework, estimating the potential rate to be between 8-10% over the medium term. It reviews past global financial crises and risks currently in the global environment
Revitalizing Healthcare Sector in India. It is generally believed that developing a robust healthcare system is a cornerstone for rapid economic and societal development as it helps harness the latent potential of our populace. A healthy population is a pre-requisite for improv- ing human productivity reducing poverty, enhancing living standards and thereby achieving growth with inclusion. In this connection, it is noteworthy that the Union Budget 2018- 19 has introduced the National Health Protection Scheme (NHPS) to provide bene ts to 500 million people with an an- nual limit of Rs 5 lakhs for hospitalisation.
Asean macroeconomic trends malaysia and the philippines undergoing rapid grow...Christiana Wu
During 1–15 September, the Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (Nikkei PMI), a leading indicator for economic conditions, was announced for each ASEAN economy, amongst other critical macroeconomic indicators. Also during that time, the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia, BNM) held the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting, while Indonesia began ramping up its infrastructure development and construction. Please refer to the table attached at the end of the report for an overview of the macroeconomic indices for ASEAN economies.
Budget implementation and economic growth in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This study examines the impact of budget implementation on economic growth in Nigeria from 1993 to 2010. The researcher developed an econometric model using gross domestic product (GDP) as the dependent variable and public total expenditure, public recurrent expenditure, public capital expenditure, and external debt as independent variables. The results of the ordinary least squares regression analysis show that budget implementation has a positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, GDP was found to have a positive relationship with public total expenditure and public recurrent expenditure, while it had a negative relationship with public capital expenditure and external debt. The study recommends that the government increase capital expenditure relative to recurrent expenditure and enact laws to ensure budgets are implemented according to plans in order to promote growth and development.
Japan's contemporary foreign and economic policies under Abenomics pursue economic stability, price stability, and full employment through three policy arrows: fiscal stimulus, unorthodox monetary policies, and structural reforms. Fiscal stimulus involves government spending and tax changes to boost the economy, while monetary policies use central bank actions like quantitative easing to influence inflation. Structural reforms aim to strengthen competitiveness through initiatives in corporate taxes, labor markets, and deregulation. Abenomics seeks to pull Japan out of decades of deflation, but faces limitations like demographic decline without increased immigration.
"The message is loud and clear," said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, chief executive of SMC Group, a brokerage based here. "The government seems to be saying that it has done as much as it could and there is no headroom left."
The document summarizes the current challenges facing the Indian economy. It notes that two years of GDP growth have been lost, retail and wholesale inflation are rising, credit uptake in the commercial sector is poor, and government spending has been inadequate. The future threats include a possible third COVID wave slowing vaccination efforts and hindering economic recovery, as well as monetary policy hitting barriers as the heavy lifting has fallen to the RBI due to insufficient fiscal stimulus from the government.
Budget Analysis of 2016-17 of BangladeshRasel Ahamed
The document provides an analysis of Bangladesh's budget for fiscal year 2016-2017. Some key points:
- The budget totals Tk. 3,40,605 crore with a GDP growth target of 7.2%. Revenue is projected at 12.4% of GDP and expenditure at 17.4% of GDP, resulting in a budget deficit of 5% of GDP.
- Private investment is expected to rise to 23.3% of GDP. Inflation is projected to decline to 5.8%. The annual development program amounts to Tk. 1,10,700 crore, higher than the previous year.
- Major expenditures include education, public services, interest payments, and transport. Revenue sources
The interim budget tabled by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee allocated Rs. 9.53 trillion for 2009-2010, keeping tax rates unchanged and increasing spending on social sectors like rural jobs and education. However, it did not include additional measures to stimulate the weakening economy, with Mukherjee stating this would be addressed in the regular budget. The budget focused on highlighting the achievements of the UPA government and increased spending pushed the fiscal deficit higher. It unveiled two new pension schemes but provided little stimulus and was criticized by industry and markets for not doing more to boost growth.
what is budget
Expectations of the public
Conclusions of Budget speech
surprising facts
sasta aur mehanga
plan & Non plan expenses
Capital expenses and revenue expenses
Revenue deficit & Fiscal Deficit
Rajiv Gandhi Equity Saving Scheme
Asset Creation
www.indiabudget.nic.in
The Economic growth rate of Indian Economy can be accelerated from the present levels. It requires the co-operation from all segments of the Indian society.
The current issue of Economy Matters focuses on “Financial Sector in India”. In Domestic Trends, we present an Economy Overview along with an analysis of the latest data on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal situation, Monsoon and Trade performance. In Policy Focus, we present the highlights of the key policies announced by the Government/RBI during October 2017. Analysis of Canada’s GDP, IMF’s latest global forecast and US Non-Farm Payroll data is covered in Global Trends.
This document is the budget speech for 2011-2012 by Pranab Mukherjee, Minister of Finance in India. Some key points:
1. The Indian economy grew at 8.6% in 2010-2011, with agriculture growing at 5.4%, industry at 8.1% and services at 9.6%. However, food inflation remains a concern.
2. The budget aims to sustain high growth while making development more inclusive through fiscal consolidation, tax reforms like the Direct Taxes Code and Goods and Services Tax, and measures to improve the investment environment.
3. Reforms include moving towards direct cash transfers of subsidies for kerosene, LPG and fertilizers, raising funds
- Indian equity markets fell in June 2017 for the first time in 2017 due to concerns around the implementation of GST and slowing domestic growth.
- Global growth forecasts were maintained but concerns remain around rising US interest rates and the need for China to accelerate economic reforms.
- India's fiscal deficit increased in the first two months of the fiscal year while inflation rates declined.
The document provides a summary of various news articles from February 6th to February 8th relating to the Indian economy and government policies. Key points include:
- The RBI kept interest rates unchanged but promised to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance to support growth. It also projected India's GDP growth at 10.5% for FY22.
- The government increased capital expenditure for FY22 by 34.5% to Rs. 5.54 lakh crore to boost infrastructure and revive sectors impacted by the pandemic.
- India's merchandise exports rose 5.37% in January while the trade deficit narrowed, indicating signs of economic recovery. However, exports declined 13.66% over April-
Recent budgeting developments - Ken Takeda, JapanOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Ken Takeda, Japan, at the 12th Annual Meeting of OECD-Asian Senior Budget Officials held in Bangkok, Thailand, on 15-16 December 2016
An introduction of Japan’s "Abenomics"--the economic policies advocated by the Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, since December 2012, based upon “three arrows” of monetary policies, fiscal policies and structural reforms. It summarises the policies conducted since it started and the current results.
Catharsis & Crises in government finances in IndiaShantanu Basu
Briefly analyses the rising indebtedness of governments in India, illustrates the formation of worthless ministerial empires that are no more than brokers and makes a strong case for separating policy from implementation to minimise waste and rent-seeking in government expenditure.
The Union Budget 2018-19 had some excellent measures to ease the lives of the common people with emphasis on the farm sector, education, healthcare and social protection. A pick up in agricultural growth together with adequate price realisation by farmers is required for rural livelihoods to stabilise. Small and medium enterprises received a boost through tax measures as well as access to credit. The introduction of fixed term employment has been a long pending demand from industry. In a difficult year, the Finance Minister has done well to contain the fiscal deficit at 3.5 per cent of GDP, a deviation of 0.3 per cent from the Budget estimate. The plan to move towards fiscal consolidation in the coming year would maintain macro stability and enhance investor confidence.
Bangladesh’s National Budget Analysis of of FY 2022-2023.076TalathUnNabiAnik
Introduction to Bangladesh's National Budget Analysis of FY 2022-2023
The National Budget Analysis of Bangladesh for the fiscal year 2022-2023 provides valuable insights into the country's financial plans and priorities. This comprehensive analysis aims to examine various aspects of the budget, including revenue collection, expenditure allocation, inflationary pressures, sector-specific measures, and the overall impact on businesses and the economy. By delving into the key highlights and policy measures outlined in the budget, we gain a deeper understanding of the government's strategies to address economic challenges, promote growth, and ensure sustainable development. Through this analysis, we aim to shed light on the significant elements of the budget and their implications for various stakeholders, ultimately contributing to a better understanding of Bangladesh's economic landscape and future prospects.
The Economic Survey 2017-18 document provides an overview of the Indian economy in the previous fiscal year and outlook for the future. In the first half of 2017, India saw slow economic growth due to demonetization effects, GST implementation challenges, and falling agricultural prices. However, the economy showed signs of recovery in the second half as reforms took effect and exports increased. The survey highlights ongoing macroeconomic vulnerabilities around fiscal deficits and current accounts that rise with oil prices. It recommends policies like furthering GST implementation, resolving non-performing bank assets, and boosting manufacturing exports. India's GDP growth was 6.75% for 2017-18 and is projected to be 7-7.5% for 2018-19.
This document provides an overview of the current state of the Indian economy and its outlook. It discusses that after 18 months of contraction, exports are recovering and growing again, supported by a good monsoon leading to increased rural spending. Along with ongoing robust urban consumption, this means the economy now has four drivers of growth instead of just two. Most estimates project GDP growth of 7.4-8% for this fiscal year. Potential challenges include weak private investment and inflation remaining in a worrying range. The document also examines India's potential growth rate based on convergence theory and its institutional framework, estimating the potential rate to be between 8-10% over the medium term. It reviews past global financial crises and risks currently in the global environment
Revitalizing Healthcare Sector in India. It is generally believed that developing a robust healthcare system is a cornerstone for rapid economic and societal development as it helps harness the latent potential of our populace. A healthy population is a pre-requisite for improv- ing human productivity reducing poverty, enhancing living standards and thereby achieving growth with inclusion. In this connection, it is noteworthy that the Union Budget 2018- 19 has introduced the National Health Protection Scheme (NHPS) to provide bene ts to 500 million people with an an- nual limit of Rs 5 lakhs for hospitalisation.
Asean macroeconomic trends malaysia and the philippines undergoing rapid grow...Christiana Wu
During 1–15 September, the Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (Nikkei PMI), a leading indicator for economic conditions, was announced for each ASEAN economy, amongst other critical macroeconomic indicators. Also during that time, the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia, BNM) held the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting, while Indonesia began ramping up its infrastructure development and construction. Please refer to the table attached at the end of the report for an overview of the macroeconomic indices for ASEAN economies.
Budget implementation and economic growth in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This study examines the impact of budget implementation on economic growth in Nigeria from 1993 to 2010. The researcher developed an econometric model using gross domestic product (GDP) as the dependent variable and public total expenditure, public recurrent expenditure, public capital expenditure, and external debt as independent variables. The results of the ordinary least squares regression analysis show that budget implementation has a positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, GDP was found to have a positive relationship with public total expenditure and public recurrent expenditure, while it had a negative relationship with public capital expenditure and external debt. The study recommends that the government increase capital expenditure relative to recurrent expenditure and enact laws to ensure budgets are implemented according to plans in order to promote growth and development.
Japan's contemporary foreign and economic policies under Abenomics pursue economic stability, price stability, and full employment through three policy arrows: fiscal stimulus, unorthodox monetary policies, and structural reforms. Fiscal stimulus involves government spending and tax changes to boost the economy, while monetary policies use central bank actions like quantitative easing to influence inflation. Structural reforms aim to strengthen competitiveness through initiatives in corporate taxes, labor markets, and deregulation. Abenomics seeks to pull Japan out of decades of deflation, but faces limitations like demographic decline without increased immigration.
"The message is loud and clear," said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, chief executive of SMC Group, a brokerage based here. "The government seems to be saying that it has done as much as it could and there is no headroom left."
The document summarizes the current challenges facing the Indian economy. It notes that two years of GDP growth have been lost, retail and wholesale inflation are rising, credit uptake in the commercial sector is poor, and government spending has been inadequate. The future threats include a possible third COVID wave slowing vaccination efforts and hindering economic recovery, as well as monetary policy hitting barriers as the heavy lifting has fallen to the RBI due to insufficient fiscal stimulus from the government.
Budget Analysis of 2016-17 of BangladeshRasel Ahamed
The document provides an analysis of Bangladesh's budget for fiscal year 2016-2017. Some key points:
- The budget totals Tk. 3,40,605 crore with a GDP growth target of 7.2%. Revenue is projected at 12.4% of GDP and expenditure at 17.4% of GDP, resulting in a budget deficit of 5% of GDP.
- Private investment is expected to rise to 23.3% of GDP. Inflation is projected to decline to 5.8%. The annual development program amounts to Tk. 1,10,700 crore, higher than the previous year.
- Major expenditures include education, public services, interest payments, and transport. Revenue sources
The interim budget tabled by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee allocated Rs. 9.53 trillion for 2009-2010, keeping tax rates unchanged and increasing spending on social sectors like rural jobs and education. However, it did not include additional measures to stimulate the weakening economy, with Mukherjee stating this would be addressed in the regular budget. The budget focused on highlighting the achievements of the UPA government and increased spending pushed the fiscal deficit higher. It unveiled two new pension schemes but provided little stimulus and was criticized by industry and markets for not doing more to boost growth.
what is budget
Expectations of the public
Conclusions of Budget speech
surprising facts
sasta aur mehanga
plan & Non plan expenses
Capital expenses and revenue expenses
Revenue deficit & Fiscal Deficit
Rajiv Gandhi Equity Saving Scheme
Asset Creation
www.indiabudget.nic.in
The Economic growth rate of Indian Economy can be accelerated from the present levels. It requires the co-operation from all segments of the Indian society.
The current issue of Economy Matters focuses on “Financial Sector in India”. In Domestic Trends, we present an Economy Overview along with an analysis of the latest data on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal situation, Monsoon and Trade performance. In Policy Focus, we present the highlights of the key policies announced by the Government/RBI during October 2017. Analysis of Canada’s GDP, IMF’s latest global forecast and US Non-Farm Payroll data is covered in Global Trends.
This document is the budget speech for 2011-2012 by Pranab Mukherjee, Minister of Finance in India. Some key points:
1. The Indian economy grew at 8.6% in 2010-2011, with agriculture growing at 5.4%, industry at 8.1% and services at 9.6%. However, food inflation remains a concern.
2. The budget aims to sustain high growth while making development more inclusive through fiscal consolidation, tax reforms like the Direct Taxes Code and Goods and Services Tax, and measures to improve the investment environment.
3. Reforms include moving towards direct cash transfers of subsidies for kerosene, LPG and fertilizers, raising funds
- Indian equity markets fell in June 2017 for the first time in 2017 due to concerns around the implementation of GST and slowing domestic growth.
- Global growth forecasts were maintained but concerns remain around rising US interest rates and the need for China to accelerate economic reforms.
- India's fiscal deficit increased in the first two months of the fiscal year while inflation rates declined.
The document provides a summary of various news articles from February 6th to February 8th relating to the Indian economy and government policies. Key points include:
- The RBI kept interest rates unchanged but promised to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance to support growth. It also projected India's GDP growth at 10.5% for FY22.
- The government increased capital expenditure for FY22 by 34.5% to Rs. 5.54 lakh crore to boost infrastructure and revive sectors impacted by the pandemic.
- India's merchandise exports rose 5.37% in January while the trade deficit narrowed, indicating signs of economic recovery. However, exports declined 13.66% over April-
Recent budgeting developments - Ken Takeda, JapanOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Ken Takeda, Japan, at the 12th Annual Meeting of OECD-Asian Senior Budget Officials held in Bangkok, Thailand, on 15-16 December 2016
An introduction of Japan’s "Abenomics"--the economic policies advocated by the Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, since December 2012, based upon “three arrows” of monetary policies, fiscal policies and structural reforms. It summarises the policies conducted since it started and the current results.
Catharsis & Crises in government finances in IndiaShantanu Basu
Briefly analyses the rising indebtedness of governments in India, illustrates the formation of worthless ministerial empires that are no more than brokers and makes a strong case for separating policy from implementation to minimise waste and rent-seeking in government expenditure.
Catharsis & Crises in government finances in India
Similar to ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
The Union Budget 2018-19 had some excellent measures to ease the lives of the common people with emphasis on the farm sector, education, healthcare and social protection. A pick up in agricultural growth together with adequate price realisation by farmers is required for rural livelihoods to stabilise. Small and medium enterprises received a boost through tax measures as well as access to credit. The introduction of fixed term employment has been a long pending demand from industry. In a difficult year, the Finance Minister has done well to contain the fiscal deficit at 3.5 per cent of GDP, a deviation of 0.3 per cent from the Budget estimate. The plan to move towards fiscal consolidation in the coming year would maintain macro stability and enhance investor confidence.
Bangladesh’s National Budget Analysis of of FY 2022-2023.076TalathUnNabiAnik
Introduction to Bangladesh's National Budget Analysis of FY 2022-2023
The National Budget Analysis of Bangladesh for the fiscal year 2022-2023 provides valuable insights into the country's financial plans and priorities. This comprehensive analysis aims to examine various aspects of the budget, including revenue collection, expenditure allocation, inflationary pressures, sector-specific measures, and the overall impact on businesses and the economy. By delving into the key highlights and policy measures outlined in the budget, we gain a deeper understanding of the government's strategies to address economic challenges, promote growth, and ensure sustainable development. Through this analysis, we aim to shed light on the significant elements of the budget and their implications for various stakeholders, ultimately contributing to a better understanding of Bangladesh's economic landscape and future prospects.
The Economic Survey 2017-18 provides an overview of India's economic performance and outlook. It summarizes that GDP growth averaged over 7.5% from 2015-2016 to 2016-2017, driven primarily by consumption. However, growth is estimated to slow to 6.5% in 2017-2018 due to demonetization and GST implementation. Notable reforms improving the business environment include the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, GST tax unification, and a large bank recapitalization package to address the twin balance sheet crisis in banking and corporations. The Survey also highlights issues like gender imbalance and the need for infrastructure investment to sustain growth.
The Economic Survey 2017-18 provides an overview of India's economic performance and outlook. It summarizes that GDP growth averaged over 7.5% from 2015-2016 to 2016-2017, driven primarily by consumption. However, growth is estimated to slow to 6.5% in 2017-2018 due to demonetization and GST implementation. Notable reforms improving the business environment include the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, GST tax unification, and a large bank recapitalization package to address the twin balance sheet crisis in banking and corporations. The Survey also highlights issues like gender imbalance and the need for infrastructure investment to sustain growth.
The document discusses India's goal of becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2024-25. It outlines the economic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, including a 23.9% contraction in GDP in the first quarter of 2020. However, the government has announced stimulus packages and reforms to boost economic growth. Foreign investment in India has also increased, supported by the country's large consumer market and growing digital economy. Realizing the $5 trillion target will require sustained high growth rates and increased investment.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Indonesia Continues to Lower Interest Rates; Vietn...Kyna Tsai
During 16–30 September, amongst the participating countries in ASEAN, the central banks of Indonesia,
Thailand, and the Philippines each held monetary policy meetings, and Indonesia’s second consecutive
decision to lower its interest rates is worth attention. Furthermore, Vietnam exhibited a high real GDP
growth rate for 3Q, recording 7.5%. Please refer to the table attached at the end of this report for an
overview of the macroeconomic indices for ASEAN economies released during 16–30 September.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Malaysia and the Philippines Undergoing Rapid Grow...Kyna Tsai
Of the critical macroeconomic indicators released for the ASEAN economies from 16–31 August, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines announced their real economic growth rates (GDP growth rates) for 2Q 2017. The central banks of Indonesia and Thailand also held monetary policy meetings.
This report will focus on and look into the indices and economic policies of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines, as well as the stirring political trends concerning the former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
The document provides a summary of recent news articles mentioning Balmer Lawrie and related topics. It includes reports that:
1) The IMF says the global economic outlook is gloomier than previously projected due to high inflation, China's slowing growth, and disruptions from the Ukraine war.
2) An analysis by Deloitte India estimates India will see 6.5-7.1% economic growth in the current fiscal year despite rising inflation and global slowdown risks.
3) The RBI estimates India's economy grew between 6.1-6.3% in the second quarter, putting annual growth on track to be around 7% for fiscal year 2023.
India Budget 2012-13 - Analysis by Prabhu SrinivasanPrabhu Srinivasan
Budget 2012-13 has invited more criticisms than appreciations from the various stakeholders of the country. Given the unanticipated difficult situation the global markets are currently in, and the multiple problems that the Indian economy is facing, such as weakening of Rupee against US Dollars, High cost of funds, Inflationary pressures, and High unemployment levels to name a few, the finance ministry has opted for a stringent budget to defy these problems and bring the economy back on a sustainable growth path. I would like to conclude the analysis with my view that the key lies in implementation of the plans. Having observed in the past, that implementation of various initiatives have seen multiple road-blocks stalling them abruptly, we shall try to learn from our past to ensure growth and prosperity of the world’s largest democracy!
- The FICCI Economic Outlook Survey estimates India's GDP growth for 2016-17 at 6.8%, lower than the previous estimate of 7.3%.
- Key factors include a projected slowdown in growth for the industry and services sectors due to demonetization's impact on cash-dependent informal sectors.
- Agriculture is expected to see growth of 3.2% for 2016-17 due to good monsoons, while industry and services are forecast to grow 5.7% and 8.5% respectively.
- Inflation is projected to remain benign with WPI at 3.4% and CPI at 4.7% for 2016-17.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyan...Kyna Tsai
During the period of 1–15 November, Indonesia reported its economic growth rate (real GDP growth rate) for 3Q at 5.1%, levelling off from the 5.0% for 2Q. The central banks of Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines decided to maintain their policy interest rates at their respective monetary policy meetings. Retail sales in Singapore were affected by seasonal factors and showed negative growth for the first time in seven months. For more information, refer to the list of macroeconomic indices released over 1–15 November at the end of this report.
This weekly media update provides summaries of news articles related to the Indian economy from June 27th to July 3rd. Key points include:
- India is projected to remain the fastest growing major economy with an average growth rate of 6.7% over the next three years according to S&P Global Ratings.
- The RBI governor said the Indian economy has achieved a "solid recovery" and is among the fastest growing large economies.
- India's current account deficit decreased significantly in the January-March quarter to 0.2% of GDP due to a smaller trade deficit and increased services exports.
In August-September, 2014 issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recently held G20 Summit; movement in oil prices and Ukraine situation in the section on Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation and Trade. In the section on Taxation, the urgency of implementing GST in India is discussed. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Food Processing Industry. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on improving investment in Infrastructure.
The document summarizes key aspects of the India Budget 2016, including:
1) It focuses on 9 pillars to transform India including agriculture, rural employment, social sectors, infrastructure, financial reforms, and ease of doing business.
2) Key allocations include Rs. 36,000 crores for agriculture and farmer welfare, Rs. 38,500 crores for MGNREGS, and Rs. 2,21,246 crores for infrastructure development.
3) Reforms aim to boost startups, manufacturing, and increase FDI in various sectors such as insurance and pension funds.
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India's working age population increased by 84.1 million from 2011-12 to 2015-16. However, the actual labor force only increased by 20.1 million, meaning over three-fourths of the working age population did not join the labor force. While the share of agriculture in employment has declined, it remains over 45% and its performance directly impacts the size of the labor force. The number of jobs created during this period was only 14.6 million per year, insufficient to absorb the growing working age population. Certain states accounted for a disproportionately large share of the labor force and workforce.
Similar to ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy (20)
SPEEDA INSIGHTS_Jakarta MRT and LRT Development A Ground Breaking Start to Ea...Kyna Tsai
The document discusses Jakarta's traffic problems caused by rapid urbanization and lack of public transportation infrastructure. It outlines the government's plans to construct an MRT, LRT, and Greater Jakarta LRT network to help alleviate traffic. The first phases of the MRT North-South line and LRT Corridor 1 are underway and expected to be completed in 2019, serving as the start of the larger transportation development projects aimed at reducing Jakarta's traffic by 2024-2027 when the networks are finished.
SPEEDA INSIGHTS_Indonesian and Malaysian Palm Oil Industry at Critical Crossr...Kyna Tsai
The document discusses the potential impacts of the EU's resolution to ban palm oil in biofuels by 2020 on the Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil industries. It finds that the two countries, which contribute around 90% of global palm oil exports, will likely see a notable reduction in palm oil export revenue and a negative impact on their trade balances. Specifically, it estimates that Indonesia's trade deficit could widen to $10.9 billion by 2020 from $6.1 billion in 2016 under a worst-case scenario where exports to both the EU and India decline. Similarly, Malaysia's trade surplus is projected to fall to $19.3 billion by 2020 from $22.3 billion in 2016. The resolution poses a critical challenge
SPEEDA INSIGHTS_Malaysia Plans Cashless Society for 2020 - Is it Out of Reach?Kyna Tsai
Malaysia's central bank set a goal in 2011 to achieve a cashless society by 2020 through migrating to electronic payments. However, by 2016 Malaysia had not met halfway targets for e-payments per capita, debit card transactions, and EFTPOS terminals. While internet banking is popular, debit card penetration and credit card usage lag peers. With people reluctant to change and a shortage of initiatives, achieving a fully cashless society by 2020 seems out of reach unless growth accelerates.
SPEEDA INSIGHTS_Next Stop for Bitcoin Price Onwards and UpwardsKyna Tsai
Bitcoin reached a new high of over $4,000 in August 2017, up over 300% for the year. The document analyzes Bitcoin's price movements and transaction activity to forecast that Bitcoin may peak at around $7,800 by late 2018 before correcting by 70%, based on an analysis of Elliott wave patterns. While Bitcoin's recent gains have been supported by transaction demand, wider adoption faces challenges such as slow user growth compared to other digital technologies.
SPEEDA INSIGHTS_Market Prospects for the Security IndustryKyna Tsai
The document discusses market prospects for the security industry. It notes that demand for both information and physical security is growing due to factors like crime prevention, anti-terrorism efforts, and disaster prevention. Information security issues are expanding beyond hardware protection to include massive data networks and personal information, while physical security now covers a wider range of objects like home electronics and vehicles. Emerging technologies like the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) will play important roles in security solutions by enabling the connection and monitoring of more devices and allowing automated analysis of data. The global information security market has grown significantly in recent years and is expected to continue expanding, while the physical security market is also growing rapidly driven by increasing demand for surveillance
SPEEDA INSIGHTS_Will foreign funds take away from private investment as the p...Kyna Tsai
The document discusses the Philippines' ambitious infrastructure development plan under President Duterte called "Dutertenomics". It aims to spend PHP 8.4 trillion on infrastructure from 2017-2022 to boost infrastructure spending. While the government plans for 66% of funding to come from taxes, this may not be sufficient. As a result, funding from private partnerships (PPPs) and overseas development assistance (ODAs) may need to increase from their planned contributions. The restructured PPP framework and growing foreign interest in Philippines' infrastructure presents opportunities for PPPs and ODAs to play a larger role in financing the country's infrastructure needs.
SPEEDA INSIGHTS_A brief glance at japan’s VR/AR industry through market trendsKyna Tsai
This document discusses virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) technologies. It provides definitions and comparisons of VR, AR, and augmented virtuality. The summary is:
VR immerses users in a completely digital environment, while AR overlays digital elements on the real world. The document outlines the history and growth of VR hardware from 2012 to 2017. It also discusses the potential applications of VR/AR in various industries like gaming, retail, and healthcare. Major Japanese tech companies involved in VR/AR components are analyzed, including their revenues and products in areas like displays, sensors and motors.
The document provides an overview of Japan's blast furnace steel industry and related industries. It discusses that steel is a key industry for Japan, accounting for 7.6% of GDP. It also summarizes that Japan maintains the second largest production of crude steel globally, after China. The document then highlights several Japanese steel companies and their production volumes. It provides details on the value chain for blast furnace steel production and trends in the industry, including steel exports being a key export item for Japan and efforts to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions.
SPEEDA INSIGHTS_A Brief Glance at Japan's Mobile Communications Related Indus...Kyna Tsai
A special edition for industries related to Mobile Communications, featuring the three main telecom carriers in Japan and companies in the smartphone-related field.
Country Report China: Navigating Through TransitionKyna Tsai
The document provides an overview of China's economy and political system. It discusses China transitioning from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven economy while maintaining high growth rates. The government implements expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate the economy while controlling inflation. China faces challenges of an aging population, urban-rural disparities, and transitioning its large workforce to higher value industries. The one-party political system is centered around the Communist Party and National People's Congress, with legal reforms promoting foreign investment.
Speeda insights_Understanding japan’s automobile related industries through t...Kyna Tsai
This document provides an overview of Japan's automobile industry through an analysis of key trends and statistics. It discusses the importance of the automobile industry to Japan's economy and workforce. It also examines industry trends toward new power sources like electricity, advanced driver assistance systems, and connected vehicles. Finally, it analyzes financial and employment data for major Japanese automakers and auto parts manufacturers over the last ten years.
Country Report 2017 Sri Lanka: The Dollar Hungry NationKyna Tsai
Sri Lanka has experienced rapid economic growth following the end of its civil war, but growth has recently slowed. An aging population and declining fertility rates mean Sri Lanka will not benefit from a demographic dividend. High debt and a weak currency are also challenges, though recent reforms aim to develop the capital market and improve the business environment. Religious and ethnic diversity exist despite the Buddhist Sinhalese majority, and tensions remain after the civil war between Sinhalese and Tamil groups.
Three Pillars to Sustainable Growth and Development in India - Pillar IIIKyna Tsai
Financial inclusion in India remains a challenge, with rural areas in particular having low average deposits and credit per person. The "JAM trinity" of Jan Dhan, Aadhaar, and mobile technology aims to address this by providing universal access to banking and direct benefit transfers to reduce leakage. Jan Dhan focuses on opening bank accounts for the unbanked and linking them to Aadhaar IDs and debit cards. Aadhaar provides unique identification to reduce information and monetary leakage in welfare programs. Mobile acts as the delivery medium, leveraging India's high mobile penetration. Measuring financial inclusion based on factors like branch penetration and credit accounts shows progress but also that more work is needed especially in rural areas.
Three Pillars to Sustainable Growth and Development in India - Pillar IIKyna Tsai
Digital India is a campaign by the Indian government to transform the country into a digitally empowered society. It has three core components: creation of digital infrastructure, delivery of services digitally, and increasing digital literacy. The campaign aims to boost India's GDP by $1 trillion through nine pillars including expanding broadband access, increasing mobile connectivity, developing e-governance services, and promoting electronics manufacturing. It is expected to have significant economic, social, and environmental impacts such as doubling employment in the IT sector, improving financial inclusion and healthcare access, and reducing carbon emissions through technologies like cloud computing.
Three Pillars to Sustainable Growth and Development in India - Pillar IKyna Tsai
The document discusses three pillars to sustainable growth and development in India, focusing on the first pillar of empowering the population through streamlined industrialization and modernization. It summarizes India's National Manufacturing Policy which aims to increase manufacturing's contribution to GDP to 25% through initiatives like National Investment and Manufacturing Zones. The policy seeks to provide jobs, simplify regulations, and set up industrial corridors. The government also established programs to develop industrial infrastructure and corridors to boost the manufacturing sector as part of its efforts to empower the population through industrialization.
The document discusses preschool education in China. It provides an overview of the preschool education market in China, including key statistics on enrollment rates, spending on education, and the size and growth of various segments within preschool education. It also discusses factors driving growth in the market, such as China's increasing birth rate and the growing demand from parents to give children a competitive advantage in China's rigorous education system. Major players in the industry are expanding their businesses through mergers and acquisitions as well as franchise models to capitalize on the large market opportunity in preschool education in China.
The banking industries in India and China face growing asset quality concerns due to rising non-performing assets (NPAs) from loans to politically connected and heavily indebted borrowers. In India, NPAs in public banks have sharply increased and threaten banking system stability, while authorities have taken steps to address the problem. However, China seems to be ignoring the full extent of its similar NPA problem. Both countries pursued accommodative monetary policies in response to economic challenges, but India's banking sector credit growth has slowed as NPAs have increased, while China saw rapid credit expansion and a tripling in banking assets.
Uber and didi chuxing merger threatens traditional taxisKyna Tsai
The document discusses how ride-hailing apps from Didi Chuxing and Uber threaten China's traditional taxi industry. Didi Chuxing has expanded to over 400 cities in China, while Uber aims to reach 100 cities by the end of 2016. Their lower prices have appealed to consumers and caused taxi drivers to see a decline in customers. Major taxi companies have also seen decreasing revenues. The rise of ride-hailing apps is exacerbated by a gap between the number of taxis and population in many Chinese cities.
The document discusses the potential impacts of Brexit on Asia and ASEAN. It identifies five major impacts: 1) financial services being most affected, 2) FMCG companies needing to reassess business models, 3) property investors suffering losses, 4) a prolonged period of political and economic uncertainty affecting relationships, and 5) opportunities for Asia to capitalize on gaps created by Brexit. It then examines short-term effects, including sharp declines in markets that have since recovered somewhat quicker than expected, suggesting initial fears may have been overdone. Long-term uncertainty remains around the future UK-EU relationship.
The document discusses the potential impact of Brexit on ASEAN and Asian countries. It finds that the direct impact is likely to be minimal due to low trade and economic ties between the regions. However, there could be some secondary effects through financial markets and property investments. Specifically:
1) The direct impact on trade is small as exports to the UK make up less than 1% of GDP for Asian countries.
2) There may be losses for investors from declines in the British currency and stock market following Brexit uncertainty.
3) Property investors, particularly in Singapore, could be affected by an expected 10-18% drop in UK house prices triggered by Brexit.
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Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdfcoingabbar
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OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
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ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
1. 01
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development
for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
By Takashi Kawabata - SPEEDA Chief Asia Economist,
Translated by Kenneth Bresson
During 16–31 October, Indonesia estimated its growth rate for 2018 at 5.4% YoY within the budget
that it recently established for the next financial year, with the government predicting that the
country’s economic growth will accelerate gradually in comparison to 2017. In addition, the budget
draft proposed to the Parliament of Malaysia for the next financial year estimated the country’s growth
at 5.0–5.5% YoY, which remains at a high level despite minor deceleration. Another important activity
took place in the southern region of the Philippines, where a five-month-long conflict between a
militant group operating under the name “Islamic State” (IS) and the country’s military came to a close.
20171109
2. 02
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development
for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
Indonesia: Established Budget for Next Year with Growth Estimated at 5.4%
Indonesia’s balance of trade for September was announced at USD 1.76 billion on 16 October, marking
the highest balance on a monthly basis since December 2011, with the surplus also rising substantially
by 37% YoY. This balance has continued to remain in the black, with the exception of July 2017.
In the non-petroleum and gas segment, the country registered a positive balance at USD 2.26 billion,
but this was supported by mineral fuels such as coal, and there have been no changes in the country’s
dependence on primary products in its export structure.
On 25 October, the country formulated its budget for FY2018, within which estimates were set for
economic growth at 5.4% YoY, inflation rate at 3.5% YoY, and fiscal deficit target at 2.19% of the
country’s GDP. The annual revenue estimate was set at IDR 1,894.7 trillion (approximately USD 140.2
billion, up by 5.0% from the 2017 budget revision), while that for annual expenditure was set at IDR
2,220.7 trillion (approximately USD 164.3 billion).
In the budget draft proposed on 16 August, President Joko Widodo emphasised the need for
countermeasures against poverty and the reduction of inequality, as well as increased expenditures
on education, health, and the establishment of infrastructure. He also noted three principles that
should be strictly adhered to, namely 1) increasing the ratio of revenue from taxes and streamlining
the management of natural resources in order to increase the country’s annual revenue, 2) enhancing
the quality of government spending, and 3) dissolving the country’s deficit and adjusting its debt ratio
in order to secure financial sustainability.
3. 03
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development
for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
Regarding forecasts for Indonesia’s economic growth in 2018, the country’s Institute for Development
of Economics & Finance (INDEF) noted that it may be difficult to reach the 5.4% YoY target. As a reason
for this forecast, INDEF noted that the amount of investment planned for regional elections throughout
the country in the first half of that year will have a negative effect.
For elections in Indonesia, political parties increase economic activity by creating items like printouts
and t-shirts in large volumes, as well as having their candidates and campaign members travel. On the
other hand, political matters become increasingly unclear in such times, leading to a strong tendency
of corporations postponing investments until after elections.
Furthermore, INDEF noted that even with efforts to make improvements in the second half of 2018
(July to December), investments will once again be widely suppressed during the presidential election
in 2019, estimating that a large turn towards favourable economic growth will be difficult.
Scene showing preparations for the local elections that took place in Lhokseumawe in the Aceh Special
District in 2017. Photo by Fachrul Reza/NurPhoto/GettyImages
On 19 October, Indonesia’s central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI), held its Board of Governor’s Meeting,
where it decided to keep the current policy interest rate of 4.25%. At the meeting, it also estimated
that the country’s actual GDP growth rate for 3Q will accelerate from the 5.01% YoY recorded for 2Q.
4. 04
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development
for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
BI also pointed out that Indonesia’s growth will be underpinned by increased consumption along with
the rising public expenditures, such as bonuses for national government workers and government
financial aids provided to citizens who are in poverty, as well as increased investment centred on the
construction sector. Moreover, BI noted that the country’s growth rate for the entire year in 2017 may
exceed the initial estimate of 5.0–5.4% YoY, and maintained the original estimate for 2018 at 5.1–5.5%
YoY.
5. 05
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development
for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
Thailand: Will Consumption Recover After the Period of Mourning?
On 29 October, the funeral ceremony for Thailand’s former monarch, King Bhumibol the Great, ended,
as did the period of mourning. During that period, Thailand’s citizens largely tended to refrain from
lavish spending, with expectations that consumption will turn upwards going forward. The next few
months will act as a test to see whether the decrease in consumption up to this point was a result of
the mourning, or whether it is an issue with the structure of Thailand’s economy.
Thailand’s citizens crowd together to participate in the final parting with King Bhumibol the Great.
Photo by Fachrul Reza/NurPhoto/GettyImages
Unit sales for new automobiles in Thailand in September stood at 77,592 units, growing remarkably by
21.9% YoY, and marking the second-highest month for unit automobile sales in 2017 after March
(84,801 units). The first half of 2013, when this amount surpassed the 10,000-unit level, was special in
that subsidies were provided for purchasing eco-cars, with the actual conditions of the automobile
market reflected in the time after the effects of those subsidies wore off. The present state of unit
automobile sales appears to be showing signs of increasing after bottoming out.
6. 06
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development
for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
Thailand’s Investment Plan for Government and Civil Affairs 2017–22 was approved at the cabinet
meeting held on 24 October. The plan outlined a total investment amount of THB 1.62 trillion
(approximately USD 48.75 billion), and included large-scale projects such as the construction of high-
speed railways connecting each of the country’s major airports (Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang, and U-
Tapao) and the expansion of Laem Chabang Port, which is used for the shipments of automobiles,
amongst other items.
Furthermore, on 27 October, a meeting was held between Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand Somkid
Jatusripitak (also the head of the economy) and the Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China
Zhang Gaoli. The governments of both countries convened with the aim of strengthening the two
countries’ economic cooperation in the regions of the Pearl River Delta, centred on China’s southern
region of Guangdong Province, and going forward, they will begin adjusting the details of this
cooperation through senior-level official meetings. Moreover, the Thai government proposed that
Thailand be utilised as an entry point for CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam), and that
the country will strengthen the relationship between the Eastern Economic Corridor and the Pearl
River Delta as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
On 17 October, the Thai Bond Market Association expressed concerns over the amount of long-term
corporate bonds held by individual investors, which totalled THB 782.7 billion (approximately USD 23.6
billion) as of end-June 2017, representing 33% of the country’s total value of issued bonds. The
Association claimed that this amount was excessive, with a high risk of default on debts. As such, trends
in Thailand’s financial sector, represented by the bond market, will be key points to watch for the time
being.
7. 07
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development
for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
Malaysia: Budget Increase Amidst a Backdrop of Favourable Economic
Conditions
On 27 October, Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak, who is also the country’s Minister of Finance,
announced the budget draft for FY2018. Within this draft, the country’s economic growth target for
that year was set at 5.0–5.5% YoY, with the budget for annual expenditure at MYR 280.25 billion
(approximately USD 66.10 billion), which is an increase by about 7.5% from the initial budget draft for
FY2017 at MYR 260.80 billion (approximately USD 61.51 billion). This budget draft will be completed
after undergoing review by the Parliament of Malaysia.
Regarding the budget draft, although there is criticism over refraining from holding elections until early
2018, with the country’s favourable economic growth in 2017, a budget increase that is focused on
infrastructure construction and promoting development in regional areas such as the states of Sabah
and Sarawak is an appropriate one. Moreover, as a theme for the budget draft, after the “Vision 2020”
programme, which aims to make Malaysia an OECD nation by 2020, the draft stipulated progress
towards the “2050 National Transformation” programme, which looks to achieve an economy with
much higher added value, as well as the strengthening of Malaysia as a “digital economy”.
Prime Minister Najib Razak gives a speech at the “2050 National Transformation Forum” held in
September 2017. Photo by Mohd Samsul Mohd Said/GettyImages
8. 08
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development
for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
On 27 October, Malaysia’s Ministry of Finance announced estimates for the country’s 2017 economic
growth rate (actual GDP growth rate) at 5.2–5.7% YoY and for the growth rate in 2018 at 5.0–5.5% YoY
in its Economic Report for 2017–18. As the Ministry’s initial estimate for 2017 was 4.3–4.8%, the new
estimates mark a substantial upward revision by 0.9 percentage points.
In comparison to other emerging economies where the GDP per capita is at the USD 10,000 level,
Malaysia is expected to continue exhibiting a high level of growth. Crude oil prices are recovering after
bottoming out, and both manufacturing and service sectors are showing firm growth.
The Philippines: Armed Conflict in Marawi on the Island of Mindanao Comes to
a Close
On 23 October, the Secretary of National Defense of the Philippines, Delfin Lorenzana, announced that
the conflict between a militant group under the name of IS, which had appeared in late May, and the
Philippine military that had been taking place in the country’s southern region in the city of Marawi on
the island of Mindanao had come to a close. The number of casualties over the conflict’s approximate
five-month period (up to 22 October) amounted to 919 IS members, 165 military and law enforcement
personnel, and 47 civilians, and the 1,780 people that had been taken hostage were released.
There had been concerns that the conflict would spread to the surrounding areas, and that terror
groups would diffuse, but the fact that the combat in Marawi, which is the source of such groups, has
ended is promising. However, as the number of domestic refugees that resulted from this conflict has
been in the hundreds of thousands, there has no doubt been a huge scar left on the local economy
and society.
In addition to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, there are numerous militant groups that are active in
the Mindanao region. In order to suppress such groups, the Philippine government has poured in
various resources, including budgets and personnel. The country’s economy has exhibited favourable
conditions in recent years, but the budget that should have been used for infrastructure development,
education, and reducing poverty has gone into the domestic armed conflict. If these conditions cannot
be improved, it will be difficult for the Philippines to realise a long-term, official rise in the economy.
9. 09
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development
for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
Vietnam: Move Towards Regulations for Virtual Currencies Like the Bitcoin
Vietnam usually releases a large amount of macroeconomic data at the end of the month, but attention
should be paid to the revisions made to these data after the announcement made a few days prior to
the end of the respective month.
Vietnam’s industrial production was up by 17.0% YoY in October, while retail sales were also up by
12.7% YoY, both of which maintained high-level growth. On 30 October, the country’s foreign direct
investment (FDI; approval basis for new and additional investment) for January through October 2017
was announced at USD 28.24 billion, marking favourable growth at 37.4% YoY. The country providing
the most investment is South Korea, which has continued to remain on top since 2016. Furthermore,
the number of visitor arrivals to the country from abroad surpassed 1 million in October, with the
number for the year already having exceeded 10 million.
In addition, based on the macroeconomic data provided by Vietnam, the country is currently
maintaining favourable economic conditions.
The country’s central bank, the State Bank of Vietnam, announced penal regulations on the distribution
and use of virtual currencies like the Bitcoin. Violators will be fined a maximum of VND 200 million
(approximately USD 8,800).
Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
10. 10
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development
for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy
This notification suggests that Vietnam may lack trust for its own currency, the Vietnamese dong. In
Vietnam, there is a strong tendency for people to possess gold or US dollars as a portfolio for protecting
assets, but virtual currencies may provide a safe haven in future. Gold is physically rare, and US dollars
are controlled by foreign currency exchange regulations, but virtual currencies can be exchanged freely
as no rules have been established yet. The regulations that were recently announced reveal that there
are likely increasing concerns of such a case within State Bank of Vietnam.
Singapore: Residential Property Prices Bottomed Out
The final figures announced for Singapore’s residential property prices for 2Q showed growth by 0.7%
YoY, which is 0.2 percentage points above the temporary figure of 0.5% YoY that was announced on 2
October. While this marked a positive turn from the -0.1% YoY recorded for 1Q, the growth is at a low
level. After Singapore’s residential property prices rose substantially over 2011–13, the range of
increase contracted. Prices appear to have hit the bottom over the past few months, but a few more
months are required to get a clear picture.
Key Focus in the Next Report
The next report will cover the period from 1–15 November, with the most important statistic to focus
on being Indonesia’s GDP for 3Q. Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines will also hold monetary policy
meetings during this time. Moreover, the Business Confidence Index (BCI) and Consumer Confidence
Index (CCI) for Thailand, which has been exhibiting gradual economic growth, and the Nikkei
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indices (Nikkei PMIs) for each country that are to be announced
at the beginning of the month will require attention, as these figures provide insight into economic
trends.
11. 11
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends:
Malaysia Announces Budget Draft, Looks to Provide Generous Amount of Development
for Infrastructure and Regional Areas Amidst the Country’s Favourable Economy