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January 25, 2022
Annual Research Report | For Informational Purposes Only
ARK Investment Management LLC. This is not a recommendation in relation to any named particular securities/cryptocurrencies and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular
securities/cryptocurrencies are for illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that the Adviser will make any investments with the same or similar characteristics as any investment presented. The reader
should not assume that an investment identified was or will be profitable. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE, FUTURE RETURNS ARE NOT GUARANTEED.
w w w . a r k - i n v e s t . c o m
•
•
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021
Risks of Investing in Innovation
2
Please note: Companies that ARK believes are capitalizing on disruptive innovation and developing technologies to displace older technologies
or create new markets may not in fact do so. ARK aims to educate investors and seeks to size the potential investment opportunity, noting that risks
and uncertainties may impact our projections and research models. Investors should use the content presented for informational purposes only,
and be aware of market risk, disruptive innovation risk, regulatory risk, and risks related to certain innovation areas.
Please read risk disclosure carefully.
Disruptive
Innovation
Rapid Pace of Change
Uncertainty and Unknowns
Exposure Across Sectors and Market Cap
RISK OF INVESTING IN INNOVATION
Regulatory Hurdles
Competitive Landscape
Political or Legal Pressure
à Aim to understand the regulatory, market, sector,
and company risks. (See Risk and Disclosure Page)
à Aim for a cross-sector understanding of technology
and combine top-down and bottom-up research.
DISCLOSURE
•
•
3 Disruptive Innovation
When has investing not been about the future?
Change appears to happen slowly and then all at once. Over time,
innovation should displace industry incumbents, increase
efficiencies, and gain majority market share. With the right
understanding of disruptive innovation and a long-term time
horizon, we believe investors will capture exponential growth
opportunities, which deserve a strategic allocation in their
portfolios. For this reason, ARK focuses on opportunities likely to
scale as technologies converge, transforming entire industries.
To enlighten investors on the impact of breakthrough technologies
we began publishing Big Ideas in 2017. This annual research report
seeks to highlight our most provocative research conclusions for
the coming year. We hope you enjoy our Big Ideas for 2022.
•
Big Ideas 2022: Change & Convergence
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021
•
•
4 Big Ideas 2022 - Report
Introduction 5
Artificial Intelligence 14
Digital Consumers 24
Digital Wallets 30
Public Blockchains 38
Bitcoin 44
Ethereum & DeFi 56
Web3 66
•
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021
Gene Editing 77
Multi-Omics 84
Electric Vehicles 93
Autonomous Ride-Hail 101
Autonomous Logistics 108
3D Printing & Robotics 114
Orbital Aerospace 122
•
Technologies Are Converging
5
ARK’s research is centered around the belief that five
innovation platforms are evolving and converging at
the same time: Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Energy
Storage, DNA Sequencing, and Blockchain Technology.
We identified 14 transformative technologies that are
approaching tipping points as costs drop, unleashing
demand across sectors and geographies and spawning
more innovation.
We believe that historians will look back on this era as
one of unprecedented technological foment—and
they will say: everything changed.
Introduction to Big Ideas 2022
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency.
ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. Forecast is compilation of forecasts for the 14 technologies that ARK defines as underlying the 5 innovation platforms. Assumes that traditional equity market exposures continue to compound value
at a rate in excess of inflation and are not substantially disrupted or marked down by negative exposure to innovation. Cryptoassets are likely to be increasingly considered a different asset class by many; comparisons between cryptoasset
values and equity market capitalization are cross-asset comparisons. Numbers rounded.
Source: World Federation of Exchanges, ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021.
Node Size: Log Prospective 2030 Market
Edge Size: ARK Convergence Score
Color: Innovation Platform
Brett Winton, Director of Research
•
We Believe That Five Innovation Platforms Will Generate
Significant Equity Market Returns Over The Long Term
6 Introduction to Big Ideas 2022
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate | Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any
particular security/cryptocurrency. | ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. Forecast is compilation of forecasts for the 14 technologies that ARK defines as underlying the 5 innovation platforms. Assumes that traditional equity market
exposures continue to compound value at a rate in excess of inflation and are not substantially disrupted or marked down by negative exposure to innovation. Cryptoassets are likely to be increasingly considered a different asset class by
many; comparisons between cryptoasset values and equity market capitalization are cross-asset comparisons. Numbers rounded. Source: World Federation of Exchanges.
Robotics
$168B
Battery
Technology
$1.5T
Non-Innovation
Equity
Capitalization
$94T
Gene
Sequencing
$125B
Blockchain
$1.4T
AI
$10.5T
Robotics
$10T
Battery
Technology
$32T
Non-Innovation
Equity
Capitalization
$126T
Gene
Sequencing
$3.6T
Blockchain
$49T
AI
$108T
100 T
10 T
1 T
100 B
10 B
2030
2020
Attributable
Market Capitalization
CAGR: 3% 35%
26% 43% 51% 40%
•
7
2020: $14 Trillion 2030 Estimate: $210 Trillion
Introduction to Big Ideas 2022
We Believe Disruptive Innovation Technologies Are Ready For Prime Time
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency.
Expected 2030 value is deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value
chain. 2030 market value assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any
accommodation or assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021
Attributable
Enterprise Value
Battery
Technology Autonomous
Mobility
Reusable
Rockets
3D
Printing
Robotics
Cloud
Computing
Mobile
Connected
Devices
Internet of
Things
AI
Gene Seq
Gene
Editing
Living
Therapies
Digital
Wallets
Blockchain
Battery
Technology
Autonomous
Mobility Reusable
Rockets
Robotics
Mobile
Connected
Devices
Internet of
Things
AI
Cloud
Computing
Gene
Editing
Living
Therapies
Gene
Sequencing
Digital
Wallets
Blockchain
100 T
10 T
1 T
100 B
10 B
3D
Printing
•
AI Innovation Could Increase Nearly 10-Fold To More Than
$100 Trillion In Equity Market Capitalization By 2030
8
AI:
Seemingly impossible problems could be solved by
software and other computational systems that learn and
change by integrating new data. These evolving systems
should transform work and accelerate computational
technology’s integration into all economic sectors. The
adoption of learning systems could prove more
momentous than the introduction of the internet,
transforming all economic sectors, including healthcare
and financial services.
Cloud Computing:
Concentrated computational infrastructure could allow
every device to harness the power of supercomputers,
enabling continuous, data-driven improvements on the
software side. Best-in-class solutions are likely to accrue
winner-take-most share in each vertical, as customer lock-
in drives superior economics. End user productivity should
drive pricing, and should improve continuously based on
data-informed solutions. Legacy software and hardware
providers are likely to be vulnerable.
Internet of Things:
Internet of things could transform the distribution of media,
providing end-users with new ways to interface with the world
and capturing data-streams that enable the evolution of new
business models and services. Consumer habits could be
modified significantly and monetized in new ways. Voice
interfaces should take share of e-commerce, digital mirrors
should become fashion and exercise interfaces, and the age of
linear TV could end. Digital distribution platforms are likely to
accrue power as they promote private-label content and
services.
Mobile Connected Devices:
Humans could be enmeshing a constellation of connected
devices that will inform us, entertain us, relate us, protect us,
and mediate our perceptions of the world. Device
constellations likely will be the dominant software
development platforms, providing primary end-point
distribution and productivity benefits. Legacy computation
manufacturers and operating system providers could be in
peril, along with media, entertainment, and content
production companies with business models optimized for
legacy distribution platforms.
Introduction to Big Ideas 2022
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Expected 2030 value is
deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value chain. 2030 market value
assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any accommodation or
assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021
100 T
10 T
1 T
100 B
10 B
Mobile
Connected
Devices
$8T
Internet of
Things
$4.6T
AI
$85T
Cloud
Computing
$10T
Attributable
Enterprise Value
•
9
Autonomous Mobility:
Battery-powered robots moving people and
parcels could operate atop legacy transportation
infrastructure, transforming the economics of
physical movement by an order of magnitude.
Taxi service could become the norm and
ownership of personal vehicles the exception;
frictionless delivery could turbocharge
ecommerce; and autonomous mobility-driven
data should provide real-time insights into the
state of the world. Incumbent providers in the
automotive, logistics, retail, and insurance sectors
could be upended.
Battery Technology:
Declining battery costs could yield a Cambrian explosion in
mobility form factors, pushing electrical supply out to
network nodes and reducing EV prices enough to compete
with traditional gas-powered cars. Micro-mobility and aerial
systems, including flying taxis, could transform landscapes
and accelerate demand for electric energy displacing liquid
fuel. Traditional automotive manufacturers and their
suppliers could topple; oil demand globally is in the process
of peaking and infrastructure will likely have to adapt.
Introduction to Big Ideas 2022
Battery Technology Could Enable Autonomous Mobility,
Generating More Than $30 Trillion In Market Capitalization By 2030
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Expected 2030 value is
deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value chain. 2030 market value
assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any accommodation or
assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021.
100 T
10 T
1 T
100 B
10 B
Battery
Technology
$2T
Autonomous
Mobility
$30T
Attributable
Enterprise Value
•
10
Reusable Rockets:
Once a ludicrous notion, nearly every launch provider
today appears to be making plans for rocket reuse, which
should lower costs by an order of magnitude and enable
exciting new business models. Given the economics of
rocket reuse, both low earth orbit constellations and
hypersonic point-to-point travel could become feasible,
transforming military asset delivery, shrinking the world's
supply chains, and enabling economical broadband
connectivity anywhere on Earth.
Robotics:
Collaborative robots powered by artificial intelligence
could flourish in increasingly dynamic environments,
transforming the economy. Harnessing the power of AI,
robots likely will learn from and adapt to the world around
them, lowering upfront and training costs. More companies
are likely to participate, supercharging productivity across
industries.
3D Printing:
3D printing could transform traditional manufacturing
methods by removing design barriers and reducing cost,
weight, and time to production. Already healthcare tools
created with 3D printing can be personalized, enhancing
experiences for both patients and doctors. Light 3D printed
aerospace parts could reduce global emissions and give
flight to new aircraft for earth and outer space. 3D printing
with artificial intelligence could design-on-demand
innovative parts better suited to their end applications at
a fraction of traditional manufacturing costs.
Introduction to Big Ideas 2022
Robotics Advances Could Generate More Than
$10 Trillion In Equity Capitalization By 2030
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Expected 2030 value is
deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value chain. 2030 market value
assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any accommodation or
assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021.
Attributable
Enterprise Value
Reusable
Rockets
$500B
3D
Printing
1.1T
100 T
10 T
1 T
100 B
10 B
Robotics
$8.6T
•
Genomic Technologies Could Drive More Than $3 Trillion
In Equity Market Capitalization By 2030
11
Gene Editing:
Editing technology can insert or delete genes in a
targeted portion of the human genome. Catalyzed
by the 2012 discovery of CRISPR, these molecular
editors are effective, inexpensive, and accessible
technologies that could advance our ability to
understand and manipulate biological systems.
In health settings they allow for faster and more
precise pre-clinical experimentation, improving the
probability of early-stage research entering clinical
trials. At the therapeutic level they enable the repair
of genetic disorders and curative treatments for rare
diseases. This revolutionary gene technology,
alongside emerging genetic synthesis techniques,
could expand further into agriculture, food
production, pest control, materials, and energy.
Living Therapies:
Genetic tools that create new forms of therapeutic intervention could
emerge, enabling precise, efficacious, and durable treatments against
pernicious and chronic diseases. The promise of curing disease could boost
investment in tooling and delivery infrastructure that is likely to command
and sustain premium prices while improving health outcomes. Advances in
this field also could set the stage for cultivated protein products that
transform the economics of food production. Companies with early-stage
cancer franchises could be at risk.
Gene Sequencing:
As genome sequencing costs fall, tests once limited to research labs should
be deployed widely, spurring volume increases by three orders of magnitude.
Pan-cancer blood tests are likely to scale and commercialize, therapeutic
treatments should become more precise and efficacious, and highly effective
measures against inherited complex disorders should become prophylactic.
Importantly, gene sequencing advances could extend into agriculture and
materials science. Legacy drug franchises and traditional diagnostic testing
businesses likely will be vulnerable.
Introduction to Big Ideas 2022
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Expected 2030 value is deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value
chain. 2030 market value assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any
accommodation or assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021.
Attributable
Enterprise Value
Gene
Editing
$1T
Living
Therapies
$1T
Gene
Sequencing
$1.6T
100 T
10 T
1 T
100 B
10 B
•
ARK Expects Cryptoassets And Digital Wallets To Command Nearly
$50 Trillion In Equity Market Capitalization By 2030
12
Blockchain:
All money and contracts could migrate to open-source
protocols that enable and verify digital scarcity and
proof-of-ownership. The financial ecosystem could be
forced to reconfigure to take advantage of the capabilities
these technologies afford, potentially leading to more
transparency, fewer capital and regulatory controls, and
significantly lower contract execution costs. More of
everything could become money-like: fungible, liquid,
quantifiable; every corporate entity and consumer will
have to adapt; corporate structures might be called into
question; every sector could be impacted.
Digital Wallets:
Digital wallets allow anyone with a connected device to
transact money instantly, transforming commercial and
financial experiences. Consumers hold the power of a bank
branch in their pockets and demand wholesale pricing for
many financial transactions, changing their relationships
with financial service providers. We believe that trillions in
annual cash transactions will be digitized, presenting a data
monetization opportunity roughly equivalent to that of
Google Search. Digital wallets could become the point-of-
contact for a variety of digital services. Traditional financial
services institutions could be at risk.
Introduction to Big Ideas 2022
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency.
Expected 2030 value is deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value
chain. 2030 market value assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any
accommodation or assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021.
Attributable
Enterprise Value
•
13
Converging technologies:
• The convergence of robotics, battery technologies,
and artificial intelligence is likely to collapse the
cost structure of transportation, impacting the
economics of auto, rail, and airline activities.
• The convergence of next generation DNA
sequencing, artificial intelligence, and gene
therapies should boost returns on investment
significantly, potentially creating a golden age of
health care likely to rival that of the eighties and
nineties.
• The convergence of application programming
interfaces (APIs), social platforms, and blockchain
technology could integrate business and
consumer marketplaces, disintermediating the
middlemen dominating financial ecosystems.
Introduction to Big Ideas 2022
Convergence Across Technologies Could Amplify Their Potential
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency.
Expected 2030 value is deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value
chain. 2030 market value assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any
accommodation or assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021.
2030
Attributable
Enterprise Value
•
Artificial Intelligence (AI) training costs appear to be declining at more than twice the rate
of Moore’s Law1 as performance is increasing significantly.
By automating the tasks of knowledge workers, AI should boost productivity and lower unit
labor costs significantly. Our research suggests that the market capitalization of AI hardware
and software companies could scale at roughly 50% annualized rate, increasing from $2.5
trillion in 2021 to $87 trillion by 2030.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
[1] Moore’s Law suggests that the number of transistors per silicon chip doubles every two years, thereby reducing the cost of compute by 50%.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. www.ark-invest.com
A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2
Artificial
Intelligence
Research by William Summerlin and Frank Downing, ARK Analysts
Enabling Humans To Become Superhuman
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment
Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from Hernandez, Danny, and Tom Brown. “AI and Efficiency.” OpenAI, OpenAI, May 2020, openai.com/blog/ai-and-efficiency/, NVIDIA., “Demystifying GPT-3.” lambdalabs.com/blog/demystifying-
gpt-3/., and“Brain Facts and Figures.” faculty.washington.edu/chudler/facts.html.
15 Artificial Intelligence
AI Training Costs Appear To Be Declining At Twice The Rate Of Moore’s Law
GPT-3 is a large language model that uses deep
learning to generate text, ranging from translation
to poetry composition.
From 2015 to 2020, the cost to train a GPT-3 sized
model dropped 65% at an annual rate, from $875
million to $4.6 million. According to our research,
the cost will decline another four orders of
magnitude to $500 in 2030.
Given 240 trillion synapses, the cost to train a
neural network equivalent in size to the human
brain in 2021 would have been $2.5 billion and is
likely to drop 60% at an annual rate to $600,000
by 2030. $100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
$1,000,000
$10,000,000
$100,000,000
$1,000,000,000
2015 2020 2025 2030
Cost to Train a 175B Parameter Model (GPT-3)
ARK Cost Forecast Moore's Law (2015 forward)
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on publicly available data sourced from Hernandez, Danny, and Tom Brown. “AI and Efficiency.” OpenAI, OpenAI, May 2020, openai.com/blog/ai-and-efficiency/, and NVIDIA. TFS-Days is a
measure of compute required to train a model. AI-Relative Compute Unit (RCU) is a measure of relative performance improvement on AI training compared against a NVIDIA K80 (2014) baseline.
16 Artificial Intelligence
Wright’s Law Models The Cost Declines Of AI Hardware And Software
Informed by Wright’s Law, we estimate that AI-relative compute unit (RCU) production costs could decline at a 39% annual rate
and that software improvements could contribute an additional 37% in cost declines during the next eight years. In other words,
the convergence of hardware and software could drive down AI training costs by 60% at an annual rate by 2030.
$0
$1
$5
$50
$500
$5,000
0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Predicted
$/
AI
RCU
Cumulative Compute Units Produced
(Millions)
AI Training Hardware Cost
Estimated Cost Per Unit Actual Cost Per Unit
0.000
0.001
0.010
0.100
1.000
0 1 100 10,000 1,000,000
Compute
Required
(TFS-Days)
Cumulative Compute Units Produced
(Millions)
AI Software Training Cost Using Neural Networks
Estimated Compute Actual Compute
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment
Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics.” www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_stru.htm., and McKinsey Global Institute. “A Future That Works:
Automation, Employment, and Productivity. mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/digital%20disruption/harnessing%20automation%20for%20a%20future%20that%20works/mgi-a-future-that-works_full-report.pdf
17
Our research suggests that by 2030 AI will increase the output of knowledge workers by 140%.
AI Could Automate The Tasks Of Knowledge Workers
And Boost Productivity
Artificial Intelligence
0
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
3.5x
4.0x
4.5x
Productivity Multipler
Output of AI-Assisted Knowledge Workers 2021 to 2030
Software Developer Accountant Bookkeeper Lawyer Paralegal Office and Admin Support
Productivity Multiplier
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: “OpenAI Codex.” openai.com/blog/openai-codex.
18 Artificial Intelligence
Example:
OpenAI Codex Already Can Complete 37% Of Coding Tasks
Codex can translate English language
commands like “Make a red ball bounce
around the screen” into software code,
potentially saving software developers
hours of time.
Today, Codex can complete 37% of coding
tasks, a percentage that is likely to increase
significantly during the next few years.
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Forecast excludes China.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 analysis based on company derived statistics and data sourced from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics.” www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_stru.htm.,
Gartner gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-10-20-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-it-spending-to-exceed-4-trillion-in-2022, and McKinsey Global Institute. “A Future That Works: Automation, Employment, and Productivity.”
mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/digital%20disruption/harnessing%20automation%20for%20a%20future%20that%20works/mgi-a-future-that-works_full-report.pdf
19 Artificial Intelligence
AI Could Accelerate Productivity Gains
ARK estimates that organizations
will increase spending on enterprise
software by 42% at an annual rate to
$14 trillion a year.
If automation boosts productivity
by 140%, AI software could increase
the output of global knowledge
workers at an annual rate of 9% to
$97 trillion in 2030.
By 2030, artificial intelligence is likely to boost the output of global knowledge workers by 9% at an annual rate, from $41 trillion
in expected human labor output to roughly $97 trillion in AI + human output.
42% CAGR
$1
$14
$56
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2021 Enteprise Software
Spend
2030 AI Software Spend Labor Output Increase from
AI Software
Billions,
USD
AI Software Spend And Labor Output Increase (Forecast)
2021 Enterprise
Software Spend
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment
Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from a16z. “The Cost of Cloud…” https://a16z.com/2021/05/27/cost-of-cloud-paradox-market-cap-cloud-lifecycle-scale-growth-repatriation-optimization/, Gartner
gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-10-20-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-it-spending-to-exceed-4-trillion-in-2022., and IDC. https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47961621.
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47528921. https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47525621. https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47525621.
20 Artificial Intelligence
AI Software Should Boost Demand For AI Hardware
ARK estimates that SaaS companies spend 50%+ of their cost of goods sold (COGS) on infrastructure hosting costs.
As demand for AI software grows, the demand for hardware could rise accordingly.
Cost of
Goods Sold
25%
Hardware Cost
25% AI Compute
40%
Gross Margin
75%
Cloud Hosting
Margin
25%
Storage
25%
Other COGS
(Licensing,
Travel, etc...)
50%
Network
20%
Overhead
15%
SaaS
Revenues
SaaS COGS
Hardware
Demand
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
2021 2025 2030
Billions,
USD
Projected Hardware Spend Driven By AI
AI Compute Storage Network Overhead
$17B
$285B
$1.7T
102% CAGR
43% CAGR
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data from company derived statistics and Gartner gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-10-20-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-it-spending-to-exceed-4-trillion-in-2022
21 Artificial Intelligence
Spending On Global AI Software And Hardware Could Be More Than
Triple The Consensus Expectation By 2030
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Global IT Spend Forecast
Consensus IT Spend Consensus IT + AI Hardware & Software Spend
Trillions,
USD
+$15T
20% CAGR
4% CAGR
ARK Consensus IT + AI Hardware & Software Spend
•
Artificial Intelligence Could Scale From Almost $2.5 Trillion To $87 Trillion
In Enterprise Value By 2030
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021
22
By 2030, AI software companies could
produce $14 trillion in annual revenue
collectively. The resulting $4 trillion in free
cash flow could create over $80 trillion in
enterprise value, up from $2.3 trillion in 2021,
generating returns of 48% at a compound
annual annual rate during the next nine years.
By 2030, AI hardware companies could
produce $1.7 trillion in annual revenue
collectively. The resulting $350 billion in free
cash flow could create $7 trillion in enterprise
value, generating returns of 57% at a
compound annual annual rate during the
next nine years.
Artificial Intelligence
AI Hardware
Foundation AI
Model-as-a-Service
APIs
AI
Applications
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Internet 1997 - 2021 AI 2021 - 2030 (estimate)
Enterprise Value (Trillions, USD)
AI
Software
•
The new digitally native consumer is spending an increasing amount of time socializing,
playing, and purchasing online. As digital takes share in our daily lives, we believe the
market—as measured by online entertainment spend, advertising spend, and platform
e-commerce fees—is likely to grow at an 18% compound annual rate during the next five
years, from $1.8 trillion today to $4.1 trillion in 2026.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. www.ark-invest.com
A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2
Digital Consumers
Spending More Time and Money Online
Research by Nicholas Grous, ARK Analyst, and Andrew Kim, ARK Analyst Intern
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, data sourced from eMarketer, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, United States Census Bureau, United States Department of Labor, and World
Bank Group.
24 Digital Consumer
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
%
of
Non-Working
Waking
Hours
Global Average Allocation of Online vs. Offline Time
Time Spent Offline Time Spent Online
Digital Is Taking Share Of Our Lives
The COVID-19 crisis accelerated the shift from offline to online activities. We estimate that on average in 2021, internet users spent
38% of their free time online and 62% offline. By 2030, we expect these averages to flip, with users spending 52% of their free time
online and 48% offline.
•
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, “List of social platforms with at least 100 million active users,” Wikipedia, last accessed January 18, 2022,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_platforms_with_at_least_100_million_active_users, data sourced from CNBC, Meta Platforms, TechCrunch, Tencent Holdings, and USA Today.
25 Digital Consumer
Social Platforms Are Scaling Like Never Before
The accelerating adoption of online platforms gives businesses and individuals the ability to reach global audiences.
Today, six platforms have more than 1 billion monthly active users, and 29 platforms have at least 100 million monthly active users.
8.7 Years
7.3 Years 7.0 Years
7.2 Years
7.7 Years
5.1 Years
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Monthly
Active
Users
(Millions)
Number of Years Since Launch to Reach 1 Billion Monthly Active Users
Facebook YouTube WhatsApp WeChat Instagram TikTok
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, data sourced from Kagan Research and MAGNA Global USA.
26 Digital Consumer
Digital Advertising Is The Primary Channel For Reaching Consumers
As traditional advertising declined during the Covid-19 pandemic, digital advertising gained share. By the end of 2021, global digital
advertising totaled roughly $440 billion, or 62% of the total advertising market. We believe the global digital advertising market will
grow at a 11% compound annual rate over the next eight years, surpassing $1 trillion in expenditures by the end of 2029.
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total
Advertising
Expenditure
(Billions,
USD)
Global Advertising Expenditures
Digital Ad Spend Traditional Ad Spend
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Note: We define social commerce as any online sale of a physical good that takes place within a social media platform or via e-commerce platforms through social features.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC 2021, data from Bond Capital, CEIC Holdings, China Internet Watch, Digital Commerce 360, eMarketer, EuroCommerce, FTI Consulting, Invesp, National Bureau of Statistics of China, and U.S. Census Bureau.
27 Digital Consumer
Social Commerce Is The Next Wave In Online Shopping
When implemented correctly, social commerce combines the convenience of online shopping with the network effects of social
media. We expect social commerce gross merchandise value (GMV) to grow at a compound annual rate of 41% over the next five years
to $3.7 trillion, more than doubling it from less than 10% of total e-commerce today to 22% in 2026.
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Gross
Merchandise
Value
(Billions,
USD)
Digitalization of Commerce
Traditional Commerce Pure E-Commerce Social Commerce
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Our estimate and forecast for the video game industry include only video game content and services and exclude related hardware and accessory sales.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, data sourced from Epic Games, NPD Group, and TwitchTracker.
28 Digital Consumer
Games Are The New Social Platforms
Fortnite exemplifies the massive shift to social gaming. Launched in 2017 as a first-person battle royale game, today Fortnite holds
virtual concerts for millions of players and has dedicated spaces in which users can hang out. We estimate that video game content
and services will grow at a 15% compound annual growth rate from roughly $200 billion in 2021 to more than $400 billion by 2026 with
the rise of “virtual worlds.”
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Millions
of
Hours
Cumulative Hours of Fortnite Watched on Twitch
Collaboration
with Balenciaga
Ariana Grande
Concert
Collaboration
with NBA
J Balvin's Fortnite
Concert
BTS Music Video Premiere
Discovery Shark Week Premiere
Party Royale Launch
Travis Scott Concert
Live Event with
Star Wars
Collaboration with
Marvel Begins
Marshmello Concert
Collaboration with NFL Begins
Fortnite Initial Release
May-17 Feb-18 Nov-18 Aug-19 May-20 Mar-21 Dec-21
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, data sourced from CEIC Data, China Internet Watch, Department of Labor and Training, Digital Commerce 360, EuroCommerce, eMarketer, Federal Reserve Economic Data, FTI Consulting, Invesp, Mary
Meeker, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Newzoo, NPD Group, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Statista, US Census Bureau, the World Bank, and US Bureau of Labor Services..
29 Digital Consumer
We Estimate That The Revenue Associated With Discretionary Online Time
Will Increase From $1.8 Trillion Today To $4.1 Trillion In 2026
We identify three online revenue segments:
• Entertainment Spend
• Advertising
• Platform E-Commerce Fees
Based on ARK's research, the market should
grow from $0.19 to $0.29 on a cost per hour
basis during the next five years.
On a total revenue basis, we expect the market
to grow at a 18% compound annual rate during
the next five years, from $1.8 trillion today to
$4.1 trillion in 2026.
$-
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Global
Cost
Per
Hour
Estimated Monetization per Hour of Discretionary Time Online
Entertainment Spend (Direct) Advertising (Indirect) Platform E-Commerce Fees (Direct)
•
Today, digital wallets like Venmo, Cash App, and others around the globe are penetrating
traditional financial services, including brokerage and lending, thanks to what we believe are
superior user experiences and much lower costs of acquisition.
In ARK’s view, digital wallets could scale at an annual rate of 69% in the US, from more than
$400 billion in market capitalization to $5.7 trillion, and 78% globally, from $1.1 to $20 trillion,
during the next five years.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 www.ark-invest.com
A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2
Digital Wallets
Upending Traditional Banking
Research by Max Friedrich, ARK Analyst, and Nishita Jain, ARK Research Associate
•
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021; Worldpay Global Payments Report issues 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021. ARK estimates for 2017.
31 Digital Wallets
Digital Wallets Are The Number One Payment Method Offline And Online
Dominating e-commerce payments since 2017, digital wallets surpassed cash last year in point-of-sales (POS) payments, likely in
response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Top Payment Methods as Share of Global
E-Commerce Purchase Volume
Digital Wallet Credit Card Debit Card
Bank Transfer Cash on Delivery
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2018 2019 2020
Top Payment Methods as Share of Global
Point-of-Sales (POS) Purchase Volume
Digital Wallet Credit Card Debit Card Cash
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
[1] Refers to number of J.P. Morgan Chase deposit accounts <$100,000 prior to 2010 and number of deposit accounts <$250,000 after 2010 due to changing reporting regulation.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, based on data sourced from: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Statistics on Depository Institutions (SDI) and RIS.
32 Digital Wallets
The Number Of Digital Wallet Users Has Surpassed The Number Of
Deposit Account Holders At One Of The Largest US Banks
Based on publicly available data, Square’s Cash App and PayPal’s Venmo have amassed 74 million and 82 million annual active users in
the past 8 and 11 years, respectively. J.P. Morgan hit 60 million deposit account holders after five acquisitions in more than 30 years.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Deposit
Accounts
/
Annual
Active
Users
(Millions)
J.P. Morgan Chase Deposit Accounts vs. Cash App and Venmo Annual Active Users (AAUs)
J.P. Morgan Deposit. Accounts Cash App AAUs Venmo AAUs
Merger
Chemical Bank,
Manufacturers
Hanover
Merger
Chemical Bank,
Chase Manhattan Bank
Merger
Chase Manhattan
Bank, J.P. Morgan
Acquisition
Bank One
Acquisition
Washington Mutual
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021
33 Digital Wallets
Digital Wallets Are Differentiated By Customer Acquisition Strategies
Customer
Acquisition
Peer-to-Peer (P2P)
Vertical Integration into
Financial Services
Land and Expand Merchant-First
Examples
Market
Structure
Developing markets with low
financial services penetration
Developed or developing markets
with opportunities to optimize a
single use case in financial services
Developed or developing markets
suffering from friction in P2P or
cross-border payments
Mostly developed markets
with well-established financial
services, making (P2P) payments an
unattractive customer
acquisition strategy
Strategy
Expanding into financial services,
often with giveaways
or rewards
Growing P2P networks organically,
sometimes accelerated by
partnerships with brands
or influencers
Leveraging trust with customers to
cross-sell other products
Using relationships with established
merchants to acquire retail
customers, mostly through
cash-back campaigns
•
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, Company information and ARK Estimates
34
Based on network effects, viral marketing, and arguably superior value
propositions, digital wallet providers spend as little as $1 to acquire
new customers, giving them room to invest and move up-market.
On a net basis, traditional banks in the US spend roughly $750 in
paid marketing and roughly $2500 in total, including the occupancy
expenses for branch networks, to acquire a new customer
Differentiated Customer Acquisition Strategies Result In
Lower Customer Acquisition Costs
Digital Wallets
$1 $5 $18 $26
$750
$2,500
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Nubank Cash App Tinkoff Bank Kaspi US Banks: Paid Marketing US Banks: Paid Marketing
and Occupancy Costs
Customer Acquisition Costs: Digital Wallets vs. US Banks
•
$22,500
$12,400
$1,700
$1,200
$2,400
$2,300
$1,800
$700
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
Total
Offline &
Online Com
m
erce
W
eb3
Investing (Stocks &
Crypto)
Insurance
Personal Credit and Mortgage
Paym
ents
Saving and Spending Account
Value
Per
User
(USD)
Potential Value Per Average Digital Wallet User (U.S.)
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. All net present value estimates based on 2020 or 2021, except web3. Offline/Online Commerce assumes digital wallet captures lead generation fee for 100% of offline
and online average US consumer retail spend. Insurance assumes digital wallet captures lead generation fee on average insurance revenue per US consumer. Saving and Spending Account assumes digital wallet
captures spread between interest rate and risk-free rate for average balance of US transaction accounts as defined by the Federal Reserve or lead generation fee on net interest income. Offline and Online Payments
assumes digital wallet captures fee on 100% of offline and online average US consumer retail spend. Personal credit and mortgage assumes digital wallet captures spread between interest rate and risk-free rate for
interest income from average debt per adult in US or or lead-generation fee on net interest income. Investing assumes digital wallet captures revenue (excluding commissions) from average US brokerage and
cryptocurrency exchange consumer. Web3 assumes digital wallet captures lead-generation or first party marketplace fee on 100% of 2026 web3 Gross Merchandise Value as forecasted by ARK.
35 Digital Wallets
Each Digital Wallet User In The US
Could Be Worth $22,500 At Maturity
If digital wallets were to become consumer financial
dashboards, ARK estimates that the net present value of
their financial service revenues would be roughly $10,000
per average US user.
Beyond financial services, digital wallets could become
lead-generation platforms for offline and online commerce,
potentially adding more than $12,000 to their net present
value per user.
Digital wallets also could serve as on-ramps to Web3 assets,
such as NFTs. ARK estimates that such Web3 monetization
could add $1,700 to their net present value per user.
•
36 Digital Wallets
The US Digital Wallet Opportunity Could Scale 69% At An Annual Rate
From More Than $400 Billion In 2021 To $5.7 Trillion In 2026.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021.
Digital Wallet Penetration of
Smartphone Users 2026 (US)
50%
75%
100%
127 Million
190 Million
250 Million
Digital Wallet Users 2026 (US)
Potential Value
per Digital Wallet
User (US)
$22,500
5% 10% 25% 50% 75%
Penetration of Potential Value per Digital Wallet User
Digital Wallet Opportunity (US)
100%
$140
Billion
$210
Billion
$290
Billion
$290
Billion
$420
Billion
$570
Billion
$710
Billion
$1
Trillion
$1.4
Trillion
$1.4
Trillion
$2.1
Trillion
$2.8
Trillion
$2.1
Trillion
$3.2
Trillion
$4.2
Trillion
$2.8
Trillion
$4.2
Trillion
$5.7
Trillion
If every US smartphone user,
valued at $22,500 per user, would
adopt a digital wallet by 2026.
•
37 Digital Wallets
The Global Digital Wallet Opportunity Could Scale 78% At An Annual Rate
From $1.1 Trillion To $20 Trillion In 2026.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021.
If every global smartphone user,
valued at $3,800 per user, would
adopt a digital wallet by 2026.
1
Applying ratio of Global GDP per Capita to US GDP per Capita to Potential Value per Digital Wallet
User in US to estimate Global Potential Value per Digital Wallet User
Digital Wallet Penetration of
Smartphone Users 2026
(Global)
50%
75%
100%
2.7 Billion
4.1 Billion
5.4 Billion
Digital Wallet Users 2026
(Global)
Potential Value per
Digital Wallet User
(Global) 1
$3,800
5% 10% 25% 50% 75%
Penetration of Potential Value per Digital Wallet User
Digital Wallet Opportunity (Global)
100%
$500
Billion
$750
Billion
$1
Trillion
$1
Trillion
$1.5
Trillion
$2
Trillion
$2.5
Trillion
$3.8
Trillion
$5
Trillion
$5
Trillion
$7.7
Trillion
$10
Trillion
$7.7
Trillion
$12
Trillion
$15
Trillion
$10
Trillion
$15
Trillion
$20
Trillion
•
Public blockchains are powering novel forms of coordination across money, finance, and
the internet. By decentralizing institutions with open-source software, blockchain
technology minimizes the need to trust centralized authorities.
We believe bitcoin is the most profound application of public blockchains, the foundation
of “self-sovereign” digital money. The Bitcoin protocol has enabled two other revolutions:
The Financial (DeFi) and Internet (Web3) Revolutions.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. www.ark-invest.com
A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2
Enabling a Coordination Revolution
Research by Yassine Elmandjra and Frank Downing, ARK Analysts, and
Nishita Jain, ARK Research Associate
Public Blockchains
•
Note: Each entity presented above is a representative sample of a ”name brand” in their respective verticals.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021
39 Public Blockchain
Public Blockchains Minimize The Need To Trust Centralized Authorities
Public blockchains shift the distribution of trust, replacing institutions that rely on centralized authorities with decentralized, open-
source software. The first profound application was self-sovereign, digital money (bitcoin). While centralized institutions must
coordinate the functions of a financial system, Bitcoin operates as a single, decentralized institution. Instead of relying on
accountants, regulators, and governments, Bitcoin relies on a global network of peers to enforce rules.
Traditional Institutions
Manual, Centralized, Less Consistent, Opaque
Public Blockchains
Automated, Distributed, Consistent, Transparent
Custody and Asset
Management
Federal
Reserve
J.P. Morgan
Visa
Bitcoin
A distributed
monetary system
that facilitates the
transfer and
custody of
bitcoin, a scarce
digital asset.
Monetary Policy
Custody and Asset
Management
Transaction
Settlement
Monetary Policy
Transaction
Settlement
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021
40 Public Blockchain
Public Blockchains Have Unique Characteristics
Public blockchain infrastructure serves as the backbone for new forms of economic coordination: it minimizes the need to trust centralized
institutions. The decentralized, open, and permissionless characteristics of public blockchains lower the cost of coordination, among other
advantages.
Status Quo Infrastructure
Closed-Source
Network rules are determined behind closed
doors at the discretion of companies,
platforms, and regulators
Centralized Central authorities mediate network activity
Corporate-Run Corporations facilitate coordination, often
excluding network participants
Permissioned
Geography and regulation control access to
platforms
Public Blockchain Infrastructure
Open-Source Network rules are open and auditable,
coordinated by users and stakeholders
Decentralized Distributed computer nodes mediate
network activity
User-Run Network participants facilitate coordination
through a fair system of checks and balances
Permissionless Anyone with an internet connection can
participate and innovate
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 and Srinivasan, Balaji, Twitter, 23 Apr. 2021, twitter.com/balajis/status/1385572764485001221.
41 Public Blockchain
Public Blockchains Could Transform Every Traditional Asset Class
Investors once thought the internet was a new channel among others:
Radio TV Newspaper Internet
Now, the internet is facilitating all channels:
Internet
Online Radio Online TV Online News Communication E-Commerce …
Similarly, cryptoassets issued on public blockchains are likely to impact all asset classes. Just as the internet turned
information into packets online, public blockchains are likely to turn all assets into transactions on-chain.
Public Blockchains
Crypto-currencies Crypto-equities Crypto-commodities Crypto-art (NFTs) DAOs …
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021
42 Public Blockchain
Public Blockchains Are Stirring Several Revolutions
In our view, the Bitcoin protocol created the most profound application of public blockchain infrastructure. In addition to the Money
Revolution, public blockchains also have catalyzed Financial and Internet Revolutions.
Public Blockchain Infrastructure
Fiat Currencies &
Central Banking
Global, Decentralized,
Non-State Money
Traditional Finance
(TradFi)
Decentralized Finance
(DeFi)
Corporate-Owned
Platforms
Interoperable, User-
Owned Web
Bitcoin DeFi Web3
Coordination of value transfer and
property rights outside the purview of
centralized authorities, governments,
and top-down control
Coordination of financial services and
contracts outside the purview of
traditional financial institutions
Coordination of identity, reputation, and
data outside the purview of traditional
media conglomerates and big tech
The Money Revolution The Financial Revolution The Internet Revolution
•
Note: Each entity presented above is a representative sample of a ”name brand” in their respective verticals.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC., 2021
43 Public Blockchain
Each Revolution Involves A Different Level of Trust
In our view, the Money Revolution requires predictable monetary assurances, maximum decentralization, and conservatism. The Financial
and Internet Revolutions require some tradeoffs to achieve scalability, convenience, and innovation. Competing blockchains should
recognize that too much trust in centralized authorities risks a reversion to the status quo.
Discretionary, Highly Regulated Networks
Closed-loop, slow to adapt, highly permissioned,
optimized for centralized control and scale
Central Government, Scale, Vendor Lock-in
Decentralized Trust Centralized Trust
The Money Revolution The Financial & Internet Revolutions Status Quo
Objective Rules-Based Self-Sovereign Money
Ethos
Conservative and predictable, resilient to change,
optimized for security and decentralization
Moat
Objective Composable, Permissionless Programming
Ethos
Progressive, technology focused, experimental,
optimized for functionality and scalability
Moat
Dev Ecosystem, “Decentralized Enough,”
Feature-Rich, Venture Funded
Objective
Ethos
Moat
Monetary Integrity, Proof of Work, Highly
Decentralized, Founder Myth, Fair Launch
Binance Smart Chain
Solana, Avalanche, Terra
Ethereum
Bitcoin
•
As bitcoin’s market capitalization hit an all-time high in 2021,
ARK’s research indicated that its network fundamentals remained healthy.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization still represents a fraction of global assets and is
likely to scale as nation-states adopt as legal tender. According to our estimates,
the price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. www.ark-invest.com
A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2
Bitcoin
A Monetary Revolution
Research by Yassine Elmandjra, ARK Analyst
•
45 Bitcoin
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
January February March April May June July August September October November
Tesla allocates 8% of
its cash to Bitcoin
China calls for severe
crackdown on Bitcoin mining
Bitcoin hits
$1 trillion market capitalization
Canadian regulators
approve world’s first
Bitcoin ETF
El Salvador accepts
bitcoin as legal tender
SEC approves first
Bitcoin Futures ETF
Taproot, Bitcoin’s
long-anticipated
upgrade, activates
Tesla suspends bitcoin
payments for vehicle purchases
amidst environmental concerns
ARK speaks at
The B Word: How Institutions
Can Embrace Bitcoin
Twitter enables
BTC tipping
Bitcoin hash rate
hits an all-time high
Bitcoin’s hash-rate
hits a 2-year low
Bitcoin Market Capitalization 2021
Market
Capitalization
(Trillions,
USD)
Bitcoin Reached $1 Trillion In Market Capitalization In 2021
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glassnode Pro, Cointelegraph, Feb 8, 2021 https://cointelegraph.com/news/tesla-allocates-7-7-of-gross-cash-to-bitcoin; Mondaq March 18, 2021
https://www.mondaq.com/canada/fin-tech/1047964/canadian-regulators-approve-world39s-first-bitcoin-etf-for-individual-investors, Wall Street Journal May 12 2021 https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-says-tesla-suspends-accepting-bitcoin-
for-vehicle-purchases-11620858838 NPR September 7 2021 https://www.npr.org/2021/09/07/1034838909/bitcoin-el-salvador-legal-tender-official-currency-cryptocurrency; Twitter September 23 2021
https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2021/bringing-tips-to-everyone; Coindesk October 15 2021 https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2021/10/15/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf-opening-crypto-to-wider-investor-base/; Coindesk November 12
2021 https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2021/11/13/taproot-bitcoins-long-anticipated-upgrade-activates-this-weekend/
•
46 Bitcoin
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Realized
Capitalization
(Billions,
USD)
Bitcoin’s Aggregate Cost Basis Hit A New Record
In 2021
While Bitcoin’s market capitalization
grew by 96% in 2021, its realized
capitalization grew by 168%.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Accumulation
Addresses
Amount
of
BTC
Held
By
Long
Term
Holders
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Base
Hit An All Time High in 2021
Long Term Holder Supply Accumulation Addresses
Long-term investors hold 13.5 million BTC,
with more than 500,000 addresses exhibiting
long-term holding behavior.
Bitcoin’s Market Participants Are Maturing And Focused On The Long-Term
Despite increased exuberance as bitcoin scaled to a record high price, on-chain data suggests that bitcoin holders are focused on
long-term fundamentals.
Note: Accumulation addresses are defined as addresses that have at least 2 incoming non-dust transfers and have never spent funds. Note: “Long-term holder base” refers to Bitcoin that has not been moved in 155 days or more.
“Bitcoin dust” refers to the very small amounts of bitcoin leftover or unspent in a transaction that is lower in value than the minimum limit of a valid transaction.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glasssnode
•
47 Bitcoin
Bitcoin Is Taking Market Share As A Global Settlement Network
Bitcoin’s cumulative transfer volume increased by 463% in 2021. Bitcoin’s annual settlement volume has surpassed Visa’s payments volume.
Note: All BTC transfer volume and transaction value metrics are on a change-adjusted basis. ARK's calculation for average change-adjusted transaction value uses both the total and the mean change-adjusted volume metrics aggregated by
Glassnode. Visa payments volume is on a nominal-basis as reported by the company. It includes global consumer credit, consumer debit, and commercial payment volumes. Visa 2021 Q4 nominal payments volume is annualized based on historical
Q4 quarter-over-quarter growth.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glasssnode, Visa, and FRB Services
Bitcoin Metrics 2020 2021
Cumulative Annual
Transfer Volume
$
BTC
$2.3 trillion
212.0 million
$13.1 trillion
275.4 million
Average Daily Transfer
Volume
$
BTC
$6.4 billion
579,190
$35.9 billion
754,499
Average Transaction
Value
$
BTC
$21,590
1.97
$136,555
2.87
Bitcoin’s Transfer Value Metrics,
On Both An Absolute and Price-Adjusted Basis
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
BTC
Volume
as
%
of
Visa
Payments
Volume
Annual
Transfer
Volume
(Trillion,
USD)
Bitcoin Settled ~$13.1 Trillion in 2021
•
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2018 2019 2020 2021
BTC
Capacity
Lightning
Network
Channels
Network Channels BTC Capacity
48 Bitcoin
Bitcoin activated Taproot, its biggest base-layer
protocol upgrade since SegWit in 2017. Along with
the introduction of Schnorr signatures, Taproot
could increase the privacy and efficiency of
Bitcoin transactions.
Successful Soft Fork Activation Bitcoin-Denominated DeFi
Tokenized bitcoin on other blockchains provides
holders with features and functionality not available
on the Bitcoin network. As of Nov. 21, 2021, 315,000
BTC, or 1.5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, is
“wrapped” on Ethereum.
Lightning Network (LN), a second layer payment
protocol built on Bitcoin, saw significant growth. LN
channels and BTC capacity on LN increased 119%
and 210%, respectively.
LN Channels and BTC Capacity*
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Aug 2020 Feb 2021 Aug 2021
BTC
on
Ethereum
BTC on Ethereum
WBTC HBTC renBTC sBTC
Complex transactions
require a single
merged signature,
greatly reducing the
bandwidth and
storage burden on
the protocol.
*BTC Capacity is the total BTC locked across all Lightning Network channels. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glasssnode and Coingecko
Bitcoin Could Continue To Scale In Response To Technological Breakthroughs
Last year, Bitcoin made conservative, strategic enhancements at the base layer while encouraging experimentation “off-chain.”
Sender
Receiver
“Layer 2” Growth
•
49 Bitcoin
Exchange Traded Products, Countries, and Corporations
Held 8% of Bitcoin’s Supply As of November 2021
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Remains The Largest
Non-Custodian Bitcoin Holder As of November 2021
1. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
2. Block.one
3. Microstrategy
4. Coinshares XBT Provider
5. Tesla Inc.
6. Purpose Bitcoin ETF
7. 3IQ Coinshares ETF
8. ETC Group Bitcoin ETP
9. The Tezos Foundation
10. Galaxy Digital
Ten Largest Publicly Disclosed Bitcoin Holders
Holder BTC
654,200
140,000
121,044
48,466
42,902
24,097
22,010
17,976
17,500
16,400
Type
ETP
Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet
ETP
Balance Sheet
ETP
ETP
ETP
Balance Sheet
ETP
Bitcoin Is Attracting Institutional Holders
Bitcoin’s institutional holder base appears to be broadening after the launch of more regulated products and adoption by
corporations and nation-states.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/treasuries/
Category # of Bitcoin
% of
Circulating Supply
Value Today
($ billions)
ETPs 816,379 4.32% $49.0
Countries 263,037 1.39% $15.8
Public Companies 231,781 1.23% $13.9
Private Companies 174,068 0.92% $10.4
Total 1,494,824 7.91% $89.7
•
50 Bitcoin
• In September, El Salvador became the first country to adopt
bitcoin as legal tender.
• As of December 31, 2021, El Salvador had purchased 1,391 BTC.
• An estimated 3.8 million people use El Salvador’s Bitcoin
wallet, Chivo, suggesting 84% adoption among eligible citizens.
• Chivo was settling $2 million in remittances daily as of October
2021, accounting for roughly 12% of El Salvador’s $6 Billion in
annual remittances and more than 2% of its GDP.
3.8
1.9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Chivo Wallet Users Traditional Bank Accounts
Salvadoran
Citizens
(millions)
In El Salvador, More People Have Bitcoin Wallets
Than Traditional Bank Accounts
El Salvador Is The First Nation-State To Adopt Bitcoin As Legal Tender
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Forbes, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s Twitter Feed https://twitter.com/nayibbukele
July August
Salvadoran Congress Approves
Bitcoin Law by a Super Majority
El Salvador Mines First
Bitcoin With Volcanic Energy
June
Bitcoin Becomes Legal
Tender in El Salvador
El Salvador Buys
its first 200 bitcoin
El Salvador Announces $1
Billion Bitcoin Bond Issue
November
October
September
El Salvador to use Bitcoin
Profits to Build 20 Schools
Chivo Wallet Users
Surpass Bank Accounts
•
51 Bitcoin
Bitcoin incentivizes new and more efficient forms of
energy generation.
Bitcoin mining can capture natural gas that
otherwise would be vented or flared.
Bitcoin mining can encourage investment in
intermittent energy systems, increasing renewables
share of energy provisioned to the grid.
Environmental Governance
Bitcoin is open, transparent, auditable, and
predictable.
Bitcoin has no central point of failure and reduces
potential human bias and error.
Bitcoin incorporates a unique system of checks and
balances intended to encourage protocol
innovation and maintenance, ensuring that any
changes are in the interest of stakeholders.
Bitcoin offers a system of property rights without
reliance on nation-states, protecting the purchasing
power of people in countries with strict capital
controls, highly inflationary currencies, or capricious
governments.
Bitcoin is open to anyone as it does not rely on a
centralized authority to determine the eligibility of
participants.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021.
Concerns About Bitcoin’s Lack Of Sustainability Seem Ill-Informed
Our research suggests that Bitcoin has the potential to transform monetary history by providing financial freedom and
empowerment in a fair, global, and distributed way.
Social
•
52 Bitcoin
Bitcoin Mining Has Evolved Into A Multibillion Dollar Industry
Converting energy into a monetary asset can be critical in times of geopolitical uncertainty and financial market volatility.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, based on data sourced from: Glassnode, CBECI
• Bitcoin’s innovative potential rests in its ability to facilitate the
transfer of value without relying on a centralized authority. The
key enabler is proof-of-work mining.
• Bitcoin incentivizes the discovery of cost-efficient energy
sources, independent of location and consumer demand.
• Following China’s crackdown on mining, the US has emerged as
the leader in Bitcoin mining, accounting for more than 35% of
total hash rate as of November 2021.
• Nation-states like El Salvador are investing heavily in Bitcoin
mining infrastructure. In October 2021, El Salvador announced
the mining of bitcoin with energy from its volcanos, three
months after instructing state-owned geothermal electric
company La Geo to plan for bitcoin mining.
A Digital-Monetary Energy Network
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cumulative
Miner
Revenue
(Billions,
USD)
Daily
Miner
Revenue
(Millions,
USD)
Bitcoin Miners Generated Revenue of $16.7 billion in 2021
Cumulative Miner Revenue Daily Miner Revenue
•
53 Bitcoin
10%
20%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
99% of
Grid Demand Met
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
Solar
Installation
Power
(MW)
Battery System (MWh)
A Solar and Battery Bitcoin System Could Meet Grid Dispatch Targets
at Constant Cost of Electricity1
(Size of Bubble = Bitcoin Mining Power)
Bitcoin Mining Could Revolutionize Energy Production
According to our research, bitcoin mining will encourage and generate more electricity from renewable carbon-free sources.
[1] Note: The addition of Bitcoin mining into power developers’ toolboxes should increase the overall addressable market for renewable and intermittent power sources. In the bottom left of the chart, in the absence of Bitcoin mining, renewables
can satisfy only 40% of the grid’s needs. In the top right of the chart, including Bitcoin mining, solar and batteries can satisfy 99% of the grid’s demand.For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a
recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021.
• As energy buyers, Bitcoin miners could
incentivize new and more efficient forms
of energy generation.
• According to ARK’s research, intermittent
energy sources like wind and solar could
meet a larger percentage of grid demand if
Bitcoin mining impacts the utility grid.
• Energy asset owners could become bitcoin
miners.
• The addition of Bitcoin mining into power
developers’ toolboxes should increase the
overall addressable market for renewable
and intermittent power sources. In the
bottom left of the chart, in the absence of
Bitcoin mining, renewables might satisfy
only 40% of the grid’s needs. In the top
right of the chart, with the introduction of
Bitcoin mining, solar and batteries could
satisfy 99% of the grid’s demand.
•
54 Bitcoin
Now A Fraction Of Global Asset Values, Bitcoin Has Significant
Appreciation Potential
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021.
$220
$124 $123
$106
$10
$1.1
$28.5
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Global Real Estate Global Bonds Global M2 Global Equities Gold Bitcoin (2021) Bitcoin (2030E)
Market
Capitalization
(Trillions,
USD)
Market Capitalization of Major Asset Classes As Of November 2021
According to our research, Bitcoin’s
market capitalization could scale more
than 25-fold in the next decade, with
each exceeding $1 million in value.
25.9x
•
55
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. | Corporate Treasury Data Source: Capital IQ, Seizure Resistant Asset Data Source: https://worldwealthreport.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2021/07/World-Wealth-Report-2021.pdf, Remittances
Market Data Source: https://thefintechtimes.com/global-remittance-market-is-expected-to-grow-by-200-billion-by-2026/ , Nation State Treasury Data Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?end=2020&start=2002 Note: a 25x
price multiplier was applied to Nation-state treasury and corporate treasury opportunities. The price multiplier is the upper bound estimate made by Chris Burniske (Co-author of Cryptoassets: The Innovative Investor's Guide to Bitcoin and Beyond
and Partner at VC firm Placeholder), which roughly equates to the average between the estimated lower bound made by Burniske and the estimated upper bound made by Citi Bank https://medium.com/@cburniske/cryptoassets-flow-
amplification-reflexivity-7e306815dd8c
Bitcoin
The Price Of One Bitcoin Could Exceed $1 Million by 2030
Bitcoin (2030E)
$4.0 trillion
$3.8 trillion
$3.8 trillion
$2.8 trillion
$0.3 trillion
Remittance Network
50% of global remittances at 1.5x velocity
Emerging Market Currency
10% of M2 (excludes top 4 countries)
Economic Settlement Network
25% of US bank settlement volumes
Nation-State Treasury
1% of total reserves
Seizure-Resistant Asset
5% of global HNWI wealth
$190,000 / BTC
$181,000 / BTC
$181,000 / BTC
$133,000 / BTC
$14,000 / BTC
Bitcoin Use Case Market Cap Value per BTC
$1.36 million / BTC
$28.5 trillion $1.36 million / BTC
$5.5 trillion
$4.2 trillion
Corporate Treasury
5% of cash of S&P 500 companies
$260,000 / BTC
$200,000 / BTC
$4.1 trillion
Institutional Investment
2.55% of institutional asset base
$196,000 / BTC
Digital Gold
50% of gold’s total market capitalization
$1.1
$28.5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Bitcoin (2021) Bitcoin (2030E)
Market
Capitalization
(Trillions,
USD)
Bitcoin Market Capitalization
•
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) promises more interoperability, transparency, and financial
services while minimizing intermediary fees and counterparty risk. After a turbulent 2018-2019,
Ethereum emerged in 2021 as the predominant smart contracting platform for decentralized
finance and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
According to ARK’s research ether (ETH) is both the preferred collateral in DeFi and the unit of
account in NFT marketplaces, suggesting that it is likely to capture a portion
of the $123 trillion global money supply.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
www.ark-invest.com
A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2
Ethereum & DeFi
A Financial Revolution
Research by Frank Downing, ARK Analyst, and Nishita Jain, ARK Research Associate
•
57 Ethereum and DeFi
Smart Contracts Are Usurping Traditional Financial Functions At The Margin
Smart contracting platforms like Ethereum are open and transparent. They do not rely on traditional financial intermediaries,
thereby reducing counterparty risk.
Examples: Traditional Finance Function Examples: Decentralized Finance
Bank of America Banking & Lending Compound
New York Stock Exchange Exchange Uniswap
Robinhood Brokerage Metamask
Blackrock Asset Management Yearn
AIG Insurance Nexus Mutual
CME Group Derivatives DYDX
Note: Each entity presented above is a representative sample of a ”name brand” in their respective verticals.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: “Defi Report Q1 2021.” Consensys, https://consensys.net/reports/defi-report-q1-2021.
•
58 Ethereum and DeFi
Ether Hit New Highs In Response To DeFi and NFTs
Built on Ethereum, DeFi, stablecoins, and NFTs pushed ether to an all time high in late 2021. Since the speculative ICO washout in
2018, Ethereum’s activity has evolved considerably.
ETH2 Beacon
Chain Launches
Beeple sells $69
million NFT
Canadian ETH
ETFs Launch
Stablecoin marketcap
hits $100 billion
EIP 1559
OpenSea tops
$6B Q3 Volume
ATH
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21
Ether’s Price
ICO Washout
“Crypto Winter”
”DeFi Summer”
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: “The Beacon Chain.” Ethereum.org, Ethereum Foundation, 7 July 2021, https://ethereum.org/en/eth2/beacon-chain/; DiCamillo, Nate. “Canada Approves Three
Ethereum Etfs in One Day.” CoinDesk Latest Headlines RSS, CoinDesk, 16 Apr. 2021, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/04/16/canada-approves-three-ethereum-etfs-in-one-day/; “Ethereum: Price.” Glassnode,
https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=ETH&category=&m=market.PriceUsdClose; Kastrenakes, Jacob. “Beeple Sold an NFT for $69 Million.” The Verge, The Verge, 11 Mar. 2021, https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/11/22325054/beeple-christies-
nft-sale-cost-everydays-69-million; “NFT Marketplace Monthly Volume.” The Block, https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/nft-non-fungible-tokens/marketplaces/nft-marketplace-monthly-volume; Sigalos, MacKenzie. “Ethereum Just
Activated a Major Change Called the 'London Hard Fork' - Here's Why It's a Big Deal.” CNBC, CNBC, 5 Aug. 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/05/ethereum-just-activated-its-london-hard-fork-and-its-a-big-deal.html; “Total Stablecoin
Supply.” The Block, https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/decentralized-finance/stablecoins/total-stablecoin-supply-daily;
•
59 Ethereum and DeFi
Increased Network Activity Has Pushed Ethereum’s Transaction Fees Higher
Than Those For Bitcoin
Higher fees have created demand for ”Layer 2” scaling solutions to lower Ethereum’s transaction fees while maintaining security.
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21
Fee Revenue Per Transaction
ETH Fees Per TX BTC Fees Per TX
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glassnode
•
60 Ethereum and DeFi
Crypto-Powered Finance Might Scale More Efficiently Than Traditional Finance
Smart contract-based financial transactions settle in near real-time almost anywhere in the world. Revenue per employee illustrates
DeFi’s efficiency relative to that of traditional finance (TradFi).
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Note: DeFi application revenue is defined as Total Revenue by TokenTerminal (https://www.tokenterminal.com/terminal/metrics/revenue) – “How much are users paying to use a project’s service? Revenue refers to the total fees paid by a
blockchain’s or decentralized application’s end users and does not include Ethereum transaction fees. DeFi application employee count is defined as number of employees on the LinkedIn page for the founding entity (i.e., Compound Labs
for Compound Protocol). TradFi Revenue and Employees is sourced from Ycharts and is based on standard quarterly financial statements. Representative companies
[1] LTM is defined as last twelve-month revenue. TradFi defined as Traditional Finance and representative of a traditional public company in the financial services industry. DeFi defined as Decentralized Finance, a categorization of software
deployed on public blockchains focused on financial services functions.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: YCharts; TokenTerminal; LinkedIn
$-
$10
$20
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$40
Banking Exchange Brokerage Asset Management Insurance Derivatives
LTM Revenue Per Employee (Millions)1
TradFi DeFi
Uniswap
Compound Robinhood Metamask Yearn AIG
BOA Exchange Blackrock Nexus Mutual CME Group dYdX
Note: Each entity presented above is a representative sample of a ”name brand” in their respective verticals.
•
Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) Enable A Novel Form
Of Coordination And Governance
61
Critical to DeFi’s governance, DAOs are replacing centralized, hierarchical corporate structures with decentralized communities.
Ethereum and DeFi
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
[1] As of January 4, 2022 | [2] CoinGecko market cap number as of December 31, 2021 | [3] Permissioned / Permissionless referring to the level of access rights required to obtain or assume ownership in a Traditional Corporation (private or
public company) vs. a DAO. In Traditional Corporations, accredited investor status or access to a KYC’d US brokerage account is often necessary to become an owner, where as the barriers of entry to a DAO are much lower – often needing
nothing more than an internet access to transact on the underlying blockchain network. [4] CoinMarketCap data
Note: Uniswap DAO was selected as a representative, ”name brand” DAO for illustrative purposes
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: DeFi Llama, Etherscan, CoinGecko, Uniswap
Ownership3
Governance
Accounting
Discourse
Traditional
Corporations
DAOs
Permissioned Permissionless
Costly Frictionless
Opaque Transparent
Private Public
• UNI token launched in
September 2020
• 60% of genesis supply
allocated to early community
members
• ~$7.8 billion2 in UNI token
market cap
• ~296,0004 unique addresses
with UNI token2
71.5
41.2
9.6
7.6
4.6 3.3 5.3
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
T
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t
a
l
E
x
c
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a
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L
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a
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a
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m
e
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r
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i
c
e
s
O
t
h
e
r
DeFi DAOs Market Cap1 (Billions, USD)
Uniswap DAO
Example:
•
62
Stablecoins—cryptoassets pegged to fiat currency,
often the USD—serve as fixed-value assets for
crypto trading, lending, and payments in both
centralized and decentralized markets. They
increased nearly 5x in 2021.
On international crypto exchanges with limited
access to US Bank accounts, like Binance,
stablecoin-denominated trading pairs account for
more than 70% of total trading volume on
centralized crypto exchanges, well above USD-
denominated trading at only 15%.
Used heavily in DeFi, stablecoins account for 95% of
total outstanding debt on Compound and 22% of
total liquidity on Uniswap.
Ethereum and DeFi
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
2019 2020 2021
USD Stablecoin Supply (Billions, USD)
USDT USDC BUSD UST DAI USDP HUSD GUSD
Stablecoins Have Fueled Crypto Trading, Lending, And Payments
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glassnode, CoinMarketCap, The Block, DeFi Llama, Dune Analytics, Messari, Uniswap
•
63
Regulators Are Prioritizing Crypto Innovations, Especially DeFi
Ethereum and DeFi
Source: ARK investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Banjo, Shelly, and Francesca Maglione. NYC Mayor-Elect Adams Says He’ll Take Paycheck in Bitcoin. Bloomberg, 4 Nov. 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/nyc-mayor-elect-eric-adams-says-
he-ll-take-paycheck-in-bitcoin?sref=1f7Aj053. China's Top Regulators Ban Crypto Trading and Mining, Sending Bitcoin Tumbling. Reuters, 24 Sept. 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-central-bank-vows-crackdown-cryptocurrency-trading-2021-09-24/, Coinbase. The SEC Has Told
Us It Wants to Sue Us over Lend. We Don’t Know Why. The Coinbase Blog, 8 Sept. 2021, https://blog.coinbase.com/the-sec-has-told-us-it-wants-to-sue-us-over-lend-we-have-no-idea-why-a3a1b6507009, Condon, Christopher. “Yellen Tells Regulators to ‘Act Quickly’ on Stablecoin Rules.”
Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg, 19 July 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-19/yellen-tells-regulators-to-act-quickly-on-stablecoin-rules?sref=1f7Aj053, Crooks, Nathan. Miami’s Mayor Says He’Ll Take His Next Paycheck in Bitcoin. Bloomberg, 2 Nov. 2021,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-02/miami-mayor-suarez-says-he-ll-take-next-paycheck-in-bitcoin-kvifidjb?sref=1f7Aj053. Digital Asset Policy Proposal: Safeguarding America’s Financial Leadership. The Coinbase Blog, 14 Oct. 2021, https://blog.coinbase.com/digital-asset-
policy-proposal-safeguarding-americas-financial-leadership-ce569c27d86c. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: U.S. Has No Plans to Ban Bitcoin and Crypto. Nasdaq, 30 Sept. 2021, https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell%3A-u.s.-has-no-plans-to-ban-bitcoin-
and-crypto-2021-09. Hayward, Andrew. Ethereum NFT Game Sorare Investigated by UK Gambling Commission. Decrypt, 11 Oct. 2021, https://decrypt.co/83194/ethereum-nft-game-sorare-investigated-uk-gambling. Michaels, Dave, and Alexander Osipovich. Regulators Investigate Crypto-
Exchange Developer Uniswap Labs. The Wall Street Journal, 3 Sept. 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/regulators-investigate-crypto-exchange-developer-uniswap-labs-11630666800?mod=latest_headlines. Post, Kollen. Biden Signs Infrastructure Bill, Handing Crypto Broker Definitions to the
US Treasury. The Block, 15 Nov. 2021, https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/124387/biden-signs-infrastructure-bill-handing-crypto-broker-definitions-to-the-us-treasury. Post, Kollen. “Kentucky Is Fifth State to Scrutinize Blockfi's Interest Accounts.” The Block, The Block, 30 July 2021,
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/113124/kentucky-regulator-blockfi-interest-security. President's Working Group on Financial Markets Releases Report and Recommendations on Stablecoins. U.S. Department of the Treasury, 1 Nov. 2021, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-
releases/jy0454. The Promises and Perils of Central Bank Digital Currencies. U.S. House Committee on Financial Services, 27 July 2021, https://financialservices.house.gov/events/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=408111. Remarks Before the Aspen Security Forum. U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission, 3 Aug. 2021, https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/gensler-aspen-security-forum-2021-08-03. Sinclair, Sebastian. Bitcoin Now Legal Tender in El Salvador, Marking World First. CoinDesk, 7 Sept. 2021, https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2021/09/07/bitcoin-now-legal-tender-in-
el-salvador-marking-world-first/. Testimony Before the United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 14 Sept. 2021, https://www.sec.gov/news/testimony/gensler-2021-09-14.
Treasury Secretary
Janet Yellen urges
policymakers to “act
quickly” and
regulate stablecoins.
A fifth state
regulator suggests
that BlockFi’s
interest accounts
might violate
security laws.
The SEC launches an
investigation of
Uniswap, targeting
the developers of the
decentralized
exchange.
China bans crypto
again, halting all
trading and mining
activities in the
country.
Federal Reserve
Chairman Jerome
Powell says the US
won’t ban
cryptocurrency.
Coinbase publishes a
Digital Asset Policy
Proposal, calling for a
new regulatory
framework for digital
assets.
Miami Mayor Francis
Suarez commits to
receiving his next
paycheck in bitcoin,
quickly followed by NYC
Mayor-elect Eric Adams.
July 19 July 30 September 3 September 24
The first country to
do so, El Salvador
adopts bitcoin as
legal tender.
September 7 September 30 October 14 November 2
The US House Committee
on Financial Services
discusses the opportunities
and risks associated with
CBDCs.
SEC Chairman Gary
Gensler claims that
most crypto exchanges
are operating with
unregistered securities.
Coinbase announces
that it received a
Wells Notice for its
planned Coinbase
Lend product.
In remarks to the Senate
Banking Committee, SEC
Chairman Gensler
emphasizes that the SEC is
reviewing stablecoins and
lending platforms.
The UK Gambling
Commission
questions fantasy
soccer platform
Sorare and its use
of NFTs.
The President’s
Working Group on
Financial Markets
publishes an
interagency report on
stablecoins.
President Biden signs the
Infrastructure Bill into law,
receiving pushback for its
broad crypto tax provisions
and ”broker” definitions.
July 27 August 3 September 7 September 14 October 11 November 1 November 15
•
64 Ethereum and DeFi
ETH 2.0 Claim* Considerations
More scalable
Sharding and layer 2 scaling solutions will expand
Ethereum’s throughput from 15 to 100,000 transactions
per second.
• Layer 2 scaling solutions took off more slowly than expected, hindered by long withdrawal times
and limited layer 2 liquidity.
• Managing shards and multiple layer 2s will be a challenge for developers.
More secure
Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus will increase both
decentralization and the cost of attacking the network.
• Putting control in the hands of the wealthiest token holders and limited physical barriers to entry,
increase the risk of centralization.
• Existing Proof of Stake chains have not been shown to be more decentralized than Proof of Work.
More sustainable
Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus is a “greener” alternative
to Proof of Work (PoW).
• Proof of Work mining could accelerate the world’s transition to renewable energy.
• Energy consumed does not mean energy wasted.
Ethereum Is A Work In Progress
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: “The Beacon Chain.” Ethereum.org, 31 July 2021, https://ethereum.org/en/eth2/beacon-chain/; Buterin, Vitalik. “Ethereum Whitepaper.” Ethereum.org, 2013,
https://ethereum.org/en/whitepaper/; Caffyn, Grace. “Ethereum Launches Long-Awaited Decentralized App Network.” CoinDesk Latest Headlines RSS, CoinDesk, 30 July 2015, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2015/07/30/ethereum-
launches-long-awaited-decentralized-app-network/; Ethereum Foundation. Eth2.0 Implementers Call #19 [2019/6/13]. 13 June 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izspfej05lE&t=2640s; Fadilpašić, Sead. “Ethereum Merge Estimated in
May-June 2022 - Developers.” Crypto News, 18 Oct. 2021, https://cryptonews.com/news/ethereum-merge-estimated-in-may-june-2022-developers.htm; Vitalik.eth. “2. Ethereum Proof of Stake Research Began in Jan 2014 with Slasher...” Twitter,
Twitter, 16 Aug. 2018, https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1029900794353483776.
PoS Research
Begins
Ethereum
Whitepaper
PoW Mainnet
Launches
ETH2 Phase 0
Planned for Jan 2020
ETH2 Phase 0
Launches after delay
Merge date pushed
to May-June 2022
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Ongoing, Iterative Proof of Stake (PoS) Research
•
65 Ethereum and DeFi
$0.4
$22.5
$122.7
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
ETH Global Financial Services Global M2
Market
Capitalization
(Trillions,
USD)
Market Cap Opportunity For Ether (Forecast)
56x
According to our research, Ethereum could displace many
traditional financial services, and its native token, ether,
could compete as global money.
As financial services move on-chain, decentralized
networks are likely to take share from existing financial
intermediaries. The beneficiaries of this shift include
Ethereum, the base protocol, and DeFi, the decentralized
applications built on top of Ethereum.
As the preferred collateral in DeFi and the unit of account
in NFT marketplaces, ether (ETH) has the potential to
capture a portion of the $123 trillion in global M2.
Ether’s Market Cap Could Exceed $20 Trillion In The Next 10 Years
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: “Broad Money (% of GDP).” The World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FM.LBL.BMNY.GD.ZS; “GDP (Current US$).” The World Bank,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD; “Global Financial Services Market Outlook 2021-2030; Expected to Reach $28.52 Trillion by 2025 - Researchandmarkets.com.” Business Wire, 10 Mar. 2021,
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210310005386/en/Global-Financial-Services-Market-Outlook-2021-2030-Expected-to-Reach-28.52-Trillion-by-2025---ResearchAndMarkets.com.
•
Now that consumers are spending more time and resources online, the importance of digital
assets is likely to increase considerably as consumer spending shifts to virtual worlds.
A global framework like non-fungible tokens (NFTs) provides a stable way of taking the
ownership and control of digital assets away from corporations, to the benefit of individuals.
By 2030, we expect Web3 to depress annual offline consumption by $7.3 trillion,
boosting direct online expenditures at an annual rate of 28%, from $1.4 trillion today
to $12.5 trillion per year.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. www.ark-invest.com
A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2
Web3
An Internet Revolution
Research by Nicholas Grous, Frank Downing, ARK Analysts, and Andrew Kim, ARK Analyst Intern
•
Digital Ownership Could Accelerate The Transition Of Activity
From The Physical To The Digital World
We believe Web3 virtual ecosystems will thrive if online
human participants can own—as opposed to use or rent—
digital assets.
In traditional Web 2.0 business models, end users typically
face restrictions on products or services. They cannot port
in-game assets from one game to another, for example,
and they risk censorship on the social media platforms
that profit from their content.
In contrast, public and decentralized blockchains allow
users to store and trade their assets in a legitimate
secondary market.
Web3
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency.
67
Central Aggregator
Protocol
Validators
Decentralized
Apps
Web 2.0 Web3
Siloed Data + Assets Public Data + Assets
•
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, data sourced from Cryptoslam and NonFungible.
68 Web3
Public Blockchains Enable The Ownership Of Digital Assets
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) serve as smart contracts that verify the ownership of digital assets on public blockchains. They usurp the
power of centralized platforms to house, control, and verify assets. In 2021, NFTs generated $21 billion in sales as the number of monthly
unique buyers soared nearly eight-fold to more than 700,000.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
J
a
n
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2
0
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e
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0
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e
p
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t
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M
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Monthly
Unique
Buyers
(Thousands)
Millions,
USD
NFT Demand
Total NFT Sales Monthly Unique Buyers
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Ark Big Ideas 2022

  • 1. • January 25, 2022 Annual Research Report | For Informational Purposes Only ARK Investment Management LLC. This is not a recommendation in relation to any named particular securities/cryptocurrencies and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities/cryptocurrencies are for illustrative purposes only. There is no assurance that the Adviser will make any investments with the same or similar characteristics as any investment presented. The reader should not assume that an investment identified was or will be profitable. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE, FUTURE RETURNS ARE NOT GUARANTEED. w w w . a r k - i n v e s t . c o m
  • 2. • • Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 Risks of Investing in Innovation 2 Please note: Companies that ARK believes are capitalizing on disruptive innovation and developing technologies to displace older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so. ARK aims to educate investors and seeks to size the potential investment opportunity, noting that risks and uncertainties may impact our projections and research models. Investors should use the content presented for informational purposes only, and be aware of market risk, disruptive innovation risk, regulatory risk, and risks related to certain innovation areas. Please read risk disclosure carefully. Disruptive Innovation Rapid Pace of Change Uncertainty and Unknowns Exposure Across Sectors and Market Cap RISK OF INVESTING IN INNOVATION Regulatory Hurdles Competitive Landscape Political or Legal Pressure à Aim to understand the regulatory, market, sector, and company risks. (See Risk and Disclosure Page) à Aim for a cross-sector understanding of technology and combine top-down and bottom-up research. DISCLOSURE
  • 3. • • 3 Disruptive Innovation When has investing not been about the future? Change appears to happen slowly and then all at once. Over time, innovation should displace industry incumbents, increase efficiencies, and gain majority market share. With the right understanding of disruptive innovation and a long-term time horizon, we believe investors will capture exponential growth opportunities, which deserve a strategic allocation in their portfolios. For this reason, ARK focuses on opportunities likely to scale as technologies converge, transforming entire industries. To enlighten investors on the impact of breakthrough technologies we began publishing Big Ideas in 2017. This annual research report seeks to highlight our most provocative research conclusions for the coming year. We hope you enjoy our Big Ideas for 2022. • Big Ideas 2022: Change & Convergence Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021
  • 4. • • 4 Big Ideas 2022 - Report Introduction 5 Artificial Intelligence 14 Digital Consumers 24 Digital Wallets 30 Public Blockchains 38 Bitcoin 44 Ethereum & DeFi 56 Web3 66 • Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 Gene Editing 77 Multi-Omics 84 Electric Vehicles 93 Autonomous Ride-Hail 101 Autonomous Logistics 108 3D Printing & Robotics 114 Orbital Aerospace 122
  • 5. • Technologies Are Converging 5 ARK’s research is centered around the belief that five innovation platforms are evolving and converging at the same time: Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Energy Storage, DNA Sequencing, and Blockchain Technology. We identified 14 transformative technologies that are approaching tipping points as costs drop, unleashing demand across sectors and geographies and spawning more innovation. We believe that historians will look back on this era as one of unprecedented technological foment—and they will say: everything changed. Introduction to Big Ideas 2022 Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. Forecast is compilation of forecasts for the 14 technologies that ARK defines as underlying the 5 innovation platforms. Assumes that traditional equity market exposures continue to compound value at a rate in excess of inflation and are not substantially disrupted or marked down by negative exposure to innovation. Cryptoassets are likely to be increasingly considered a different asset class by many; comparisons between cryptoasset values and equity market capitalization are cross-asset comparisons. Numbers rounded. Source: World Federation of Exchanges, ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. Node Size: Log Prospective 2030 Market Edge Size: ARK Convergence Score Color: Innovation Platform Brett Winton, Director of Research
  • 6. • We Believe That Five Innovation Platforms Will Generate Significant Equity Market Returns Over The Long Term 6 Introduction to Big Ideas 2022 CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate | Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. | ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. Forecast is compilation of forecasts for the 14 technologies that ARK defines as underlying the 5 innovation platforms. Assumes that traditional equity market exposures continue to compound value at a rate in excess of inflation and are not substantially disrupted or marked down by negative exposure to innovation. Cryptoassets are likely to be increasingly considered a different asset class by many; comparisons between cryptoasset values and equity market capitalization are cross-asset comparisons. Numbers rounded. Source: World Federation of Exchanges. Robotics $168B Battery Technology $1.5T Non-Innovation Equity Capitalization $94T Gene Sequencing $125B Blockchain $1.4T AI $10.5T Robotics $10T Battery Technology $32T Non-Innovation Equity Capitalization $126T Gene Sequencing $3.6T Blockchain $49T AI $108T 100 T 10 T 1 T 100 B 10 B 2030 2020 Attributable Market Capitalization CAGR: 3% 35% 26% 43% 51% 40%
  • 7. • 7 2020: $14 Trillion 2030 Estimate: $210 Trillion Introduction to Big Ideas 2022 We Believe Disruptive Innovation Technologies Are Ready For Prime Time Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. Expected 2030 value is deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value chain. 2030 market value assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any accommodation or assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 Attributable Enterprise Value Battery Technology Autonomous Mobility Reusable Rockets 3D Printing Robotics Cloud Computing Mobile Connected Devices Internet of Things AI Gene Seq Gene Editing Living Therapies Digital Wallets Blockchain Battery Technology Autonomous Mobility Reusable Rockets Robotics Mobile Connected Devices Internet of Things AI Cloud Computing Gene Editing Living Therapies Gene Sequencing Digital Wallets Blockchain 100 T 10 T 1 T 100 B 10 B 3D Printing
  • 8. • AI Innovation Could Increase Nearly 10-Fold To More Than $100 Trillion In Equity Market Capitalization By 2030 8 AI: Seemingly impossible problems could be solved by software and other computational systems that learn and change by integrating new data. These evolving systems should transform work and accelerate computational technology’s integration into all economic sectors. The adoption of learning systems could prove more momentous than the introduction of the internet, transforming all economic sectors, including healthcare and financial services. Cloud Computing: Concentrated computational infrastructure could allow every device to harness the power of supercomputers, enabling continuous, data-driven improvements on the software side. Best-in-class solutions are likely to accrue winner-take-most share in each vertical, as customer lock- in drives superior economics. End user productivity should drive pricing, and should improve continuously based on data-informed solutions. Legacy software and hardware providers are likely to be vulnerable. Internet of Things: Internet of things could transform the distribution of media, providing end-users with new ways to interface with the world and capturing data-streams that enable the evolution of new business models and services. Consumer habits could be modified significantly and monetized in new ways. Voice interfaces should take share of e-commerce, digital mirrors should become fashion and exercise interfaces, and the age of linear TV could end. Digital distribution platforms are likely to accrue power as they promote private-label content and services. Mobile Connected Devices: Humans could be enmeshing a constellation of connected devices that will inform us, entertain us, relate us, protect us, and mediate our perceptions of the world. Device constellations likely will be the dominant software development platforms, providing primary end-point distribution and productivity benefits. Legacy computation manufacturers and operating system providers could be in peril, along with media, entertainment, and content production companies with business models optimized for legacy distribution platforms. Introduction to Big Ideas 2022 Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Expected 2030 value is deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value chain. 2030 market value assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any accommodation or assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 100 T 10 T 1 T 100 B 10 B Mobile Connected Devices $8T Internet of Things $4.6T AI $85T Cloud Computing $10T Attributable Enterprise Value
  • 9. • 9 Autonomous Mobility: Battery-powered robots moving people and parcels could operate atop legacy transportation infrastructure, transforming the economics of physical movement by an order of magnitude. Taxi service could become the norm and ownership of personal vehicles the exception; frictionless delivery could turbocharge ecommerce; and autonomous mobility-driven data should provide real-time insights into the state of the world. Incumbent providers in the automotive, logistics, retail, and insurance sectors could be upended. Battery Technology: Declining battery costs could yield a Cambrian explosion in mobility form factors, pushing electrical supply out to network nodes and reducing EV prices enough to compete with traditional gas-powered cars. Micro-mobility and aerial systems, including flying taxis, could transform landscapes and accelerate demand for electric energy displacing liquid fuel. Traditional automotive manufacturers and their suppliers could topple; oil demand globally is in the process of peaking and infrastructure will likely have to adapt. Introduction to Big Ideas 2022 Battery Technology Could Enable Autonomous Mobility, Generating More Than $30 Trillion In Market Capitalization By 2030 Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Expected 2030 value is deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value chain. 2030 market value assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any accommodation or assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. 100 T 10 T 1 T 100 B 10 B Battery Technology $2T Autonomous Mobility $30T Attributable Enterprise Value
  • 10. • 10 Reusable Rockets: Once a ludicrous notion, nearly every launch provider today appears to be making plans for rocket reuse, which should lower costs by an order of magnitude and enable exciting new business models. Given the economics of rocket reuse, both low earth orbit constellations and hypersonic point-to-point travel could become feasible, transforming military asset delivery, shrinking the world's supply chains, and enabling economical broadband connectivity anywhere on Earth. Robotics: Collaborative robots powered by artificial intelligence could flourish in increasingly dynamic environments, transforming the economy. Harnessing the power of AI, robots likely will learn from and adapt to the world around them, lowering upfront and training costs. More companies are likely to participate, supercharging productivity across industries. 3D Printing: 3D printing could transform traditional manufacturing methods by removing design barriers and reducing cost, weight, and time to production. Already healthcare tools created with 3D printing can be personalized, enhancing experiences for both patients and doctors. Light 3D printed aerospace parts could reduce global emissions and give flight to new aircraft for earth and outer space. 3D printing with artificial intelligence could design-on-demand innovative parts better suited to their end applications at a fraction of traditional manufacturing costs. Introduction to Big Ideas 2022 Robotics Advances Could Generate More Than $10 Trillion In Equity Capitalization By 2030 Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Expected 2030 value is deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value chain. 2030 market value assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any accommodation or assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. Attributable Enterprise Value Reusable Rockets $500B 3D Printing 1.1T 100 T 10 T 1 T 100 B 10 B Robotics $8.6T
  • 11. • Genomic Technologies Could Drive More Than $3 Trillion In Equity Market Capitalization By 2030 11 Gene Editing: Editing technology can insert or delete genes in a targeted portion of the human genome. Catalyzed by the 2012 discovery of CRISPR, these molecular editors are effective, inexpensive, and accessible technologies that could advance our ability to understand and manipulate biological systems. In health settings they allow for faster and more precise pre-clinical experimentation, improving the probability of early-stage research entering clinical trials. At the therapeutic level they enable the repair of genetic disorders and curative treatments for rare diseases. This revolutionary gene technology, alongside emerging genetic synthesis techniques, could expand further into agriculture, food production, pest control, materials, and energy. Living Therapies: Genetic tools that create new forms of therapeutic intervention could emerge, enabling precise, efficacious, and durable treatments against pernicious and chronic diseases. The promise of curing disease could boost investment in tooling and delivery infrastructure that is likely to command and sustain premium prices while improving health outcomes. Advances in this field also could set the stage for cultivated protein products that transform the economics of food production. Companies with early-stage cancer franchises could be at risk. Gene Sequencing: As genome sequencing costs fall, tests once limited to research labs should be deployed widely, spurring volume increases by three orders of magnitude. Pan-cancer blood tests are likely to scale and commercialize, therapeutic treatments should become more precise and efficacious, and highly effective measures against inherited complex disorders should become prophylactic. Importantly, gene sequencing advances could extend into agriculture and materials science. Legacy drug franchises and traditional diagnostic testing businesses likely will be vulnerable. Introduction to Big Ideas 2022 Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Expected 2030 value is deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value chain. 2030 market value assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any accommodation or assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. Attributable Enterprise Value Gene Editing $1T Living Therapies $1T Gene Sequencing $1.6T 100 T 10 T 1 T 100 B 10 B
  • 12. • ARK Expects Cryptoassets And Digital Wallets To Command Nearly $50 Trillion In Equity Market Capitalization By 2030 12 Blockchain: All money and contracts could migrate to open-source protocols that enable and verify digital scarcity and proof-of-ownership. The financial ecosystem could be forced to reconfigure to take advantage of the capabilities these technologies afford, potentially leading to more transparency, fewer capital and regulatory controls, and significantly lower contract execution costs. More of everything could become money-like: fungible, liquid, quantifiable; every corporate entity and consumer will have to adapt; corporate structures might be called into question; every sector could be impacted. Digital Wallets: Digital wallets allow anyone with a connected device to transact money instantly, transforming commercial and financial experiences. Consumers hold the power of a bank branch in their pockets and demand wholesale pricing for many financial transactions, changing their relationships with financial service providers. We believe that trillions in annual cash transactions will be digitized, presenting a data monetization opportunity roughly equivalent to that of Google Search. Digital wallets could become the point-of- contact for a variety of digital services. Traditional financial services institutions could be at risk. Introduction to Big Ideas 2022 Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. Expected 2030 value is deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value chain. 2030 market value assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any accommodation or assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. Attributable Enterprise Value
  • 13. • 13 Converging technologies: • The convergence of robotics, battery technologies, and artificial intelligence is likely to collapse the cost structure of transportation, impacting the economics of auto, rail, and airline activities. • The convergence of next generation DNA sequencing, artificial intelligence, and gene therapies should boost returns on investment significantly, potentially creating a golden age of health care likely to rival that of the eighties and nineties. • The convergence of application programming interfaces (APIs), social platforms, and blockchain technology could integrate business and consumer marketplaces, disintermediating the middlemen dominating financial ecosystems. Introduction to Big Ideas 2022 Convergence Across Technologies Could Amplify Their Potential Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. Expected 2030 value is deduplicated expectation of value accrual to the individual technology on the basis of ARK’s forecast for technology uptake, revenue generation and cashflow accrual to meaningfully investable portions of the value chain. 2030 market value assumes that market participants value modeled portions of the value chain at a roughly 5% cashflow yield. It is neither implied nor assumed that value accrual will occur in the public equity space alone, nor is any accommodation or assumption made for equity issuance in the technology areas modeled. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. 2030 Attributable Enterprise Value
  • 14. • Artificial Intelligence (AI) training costs appear to be declining at more than twice the rate of Moore’s Law1 as performance is increasing significantly. By automating the tasks of knowledge workers, AI should boost productivity and lower unit labor costs significantly. Our research suggests that the market capitalization of AI hardware and software companies could scale at roughly 50% annualized rate, increasing from $2.5 trillion in 2021 to $87 trillion by 2030. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. [1] Moore’s Law suggests that the number of transistors per silicon chip doubles every two years, thereby reducing the cost of compute by 50%. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. www.ark-invest.com A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2 Artificial Intelligence Research by William Summerlin and Frank Downing, ARK Analysts Enabling Humans To Become Superhuman
  • 15. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from Hernandez, Danny, and Tom Brown. “AI and Efficiency.” OpenAI, OpenAI, May 2020, openai.com/blog/ai-and-efficiency/, NVIDIA., “Demystifying GPT-3.” lambdalabs.com/blog/demystifying- gpt-3/., and“Brain Facts and Figures.” faculty.washington.edu/chudler/facts.html. 15 Artificial Intelligence AI Training Costs Appear To Be Declining At Twice The Rate Of Moore’s Law GPT-3 is a large language model that uses deep learning to generate text, ranging from translation to poetry composition. From 2015 to 2020, the cost to train a GPT-3 sized model dropped 65% at an annual rate, from $875 million to $4.6 million. According to our research, the cost will decline another four orders of magnitude to $500 in 2030. Given 240 trillion synapses, the cost to train a neural network equivalent in size to the human brain in 2021 would have been $2.5 billion and is likely to drop 60% at an annual rate to $600,000 by 2030. $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000 $1,000,000 $10,000,000 $100,000,000 $1,000,000,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 Cost to Train a 175B Parameter Model (GPT-3) ARK Cost Forecast Moore's Law (2015 forward)
  • 16. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on publicly available data sourced from Hernandez, Danny, and Tom Brown. “AI and Efficiency.” OpenAI, OpenAI, May 2020, openai.com/blog/ai-and-efficiency/, and NVIDIA. TFS-Days is a measure of compute required to train a model. AI-Relative Compute Unit (RCU) is a measure of relative performance improvement on AI training compared against a NVIDIA K80 (2014) baseline. 16 Artificial Intelligence Wright’s Law Models The Cost Declines Of AI Hardware And Software Informed by Wright’s Law, we estimate that AI-relative compute unit (RCU) production costs could decline at a 39% annual rate and that software improvements could contribute an additional 37% in cost declines during the next eight years. In other words, the convergence of hardware and software could drive down AI training costs by 60% at an annual rate by 2030. $0 $1 $5 $50 $500 $5,000 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Predicted $/ AI RCU Cumulative Compute Units Produced (Millions) AI Training Hardware Cost Estimated Cost Per Unit Actual Cost Per Unit 0.000 0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 0 1 100 10,000 1,000,000 Compute Required (TFS-Days) Cumulative Compute Units Produced (Millions) AI Software Training Cost Using Neural Networks Estimated Compute Actual Compute
  • 17. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics.” www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_stru.htm., and McKinsey Global Institute. “A Future That Works: Automation, Employment, and Productivity. mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/digital%20disruption/harnessing%20automation%20for%20a%20future%20that%20works/mgi-a-future-that-works_full-report.pdf 17 Our research suggests that by 2030 AI will increase the output of knowledge workers by 140%. AI Could Automate The Tasks Of Knowledge Workers And Boost Productivity Artificial Intelligence 0 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 3.5x 4.0x 4.5x Productivity Multipler Output of AI-Assisted Knowledge Workers 2021 to 2030 Software Developer Accountant Bookkeeper Lawyer Paralegal Office and Admin Support Productivity Multiplier
  • 18. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: “OpenAI Codex.” openai.com/blog/openai-codex. 18 Artificial Intelligence Example: OpenAI Codex Already Can Complete 37% Of Coding Tasks Codex can translate English language commands like “Make a red ball bounce around the screen” into software code, potentially saving software developers hours of time. Today, Codex can complete 37% of coding tasks, a percentage that is likely to increase significantly during the next few years.
  • 19. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Forecast excludes China. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 analysis based on company derived statistics and data sourced from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics.” www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_stru.htm., Gartner gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-10-20-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-it-spending-to-exceed-4-trillion-in-2022, and McKinsey Global Institute. “A Future That Works: Automation, Employment, and Productivity.” mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/digital%20disruption/harnessing%20automation%20for%20a%20future%20that%20works/mgi-a-future-that-works_full-report.pdf 19 Artificial Intelligence AI Could Accelerate Productivity Gains ARK estimates that organizations will increase spending on enterprise software by 42% at an annual rate to $14 trillion a year. If automation boosts productivity by 140%, AI software could increase the output of global knowledge workers at an annual rate of 9% to $97 trillion in 2030. By 2030, artificial intelligence is likely to boost the output of global knowledge workers by 9% at an annual rate, from $41 trillion in expected human labor output to roughly $97 trillion in AI + human output. 42% CAGR $1 $14 $56 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 2021 Enteprise Software Spend 2030 AI Software Spend Labor Output Increase from AI Software Billions, USD AI Software Spend And Labor Output Increase (Forecast) 2021 Enterprise Software Spend
  • 20. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from a16z. “The Cost of Cloud…” https://a16z.com/2021/05/27/cost-of-cloud-paradox-market-cap-cloud-lifecycle-scale-growth-repatriation-optimization/, Gartner gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-10-20-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-it-spending-to-exceed-4-trillion-in-2022., and IDC. https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47961621. https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47528921. https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47525621. https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47525621. 20 Artificial Intelligence AI Software Should Boost Demand For AI Hardware ARK estimates that SaaS companies spend 50%+ of their cost of goods sold (COGS) on infrastructure hosting costs. As demand for AI software grows, the demand for hardware could rise accordingly. Cost of Goods Sold 25% Hardware Cost 25% AI Compute 40% Gross Margin 75% Cloud Hosting Margin 25% Storage 25% Other COGS (Licensing, Travel, etc...) 50% Network 20% Overhead 15% SaaS Revenues SaaS COGS Hardware Demand $- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 2021 2025 2030 Billions, USD Projected Hardware Spend Driven By AI AI Compute Storage Network Overhead $17B $285B $1.7T 102% CAGR 43% CAGR
  • 21. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data from company derived statistics and Gartner gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-10-20-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-it-spending-to-exceed-4-trillion-in-2022 21 Artificial Intelligence Spending On Global AI Software And Hardware Could Be More Than Triple The Consensus Expectation By 2030 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Global IT Spend Forecast Consensus IT Spend Consensus IT + AI Hardware & Software Spend Trillions, USD +$15T 20% CAGR 4% CAGR ARK Consensus IT + AI Hardware & Software Spend
  • 22. • Artificial Intelligence Could Scale From Almost $2.5 Trillion To $87 Trillion In Enterprise Value By 2030 Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 22 By 2030, AI software companies could produce $14 trillion in annual revenue collectively. The resulting $4 trillion in free cash flow could create over $80 trillion in enterprise value, up from $2.3 trillion in 2021, generating returns of 48% at a compound annual annual rate during the next nine years. By 2030, AI hardware companies could produce $1.7 trillion in annual revenue collectively. The resulting $350 billion in free cash flow could create $7 trillion in enterprise value, generating returns of 57% at a compound annual annual rate during the next nine years. Artificial Intelligence AI Hardware Foundation AI Model-as-a-Service APIs AI Applications $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 Internet 1997 - 2021 AI 2021 - 2030 (estimate) Enterprise Value (Trillions, USD) AI Software
  • 23. • The new digitally native consumer is spending an increasing amount of time socializing, playing, and purchasing online. As digital takes share in our daily lives, we believe the market—as measured by online entertainment spend, advertising spend, and platform e-commerce fees—is likely to grow at an 18% compound annual rate during the next five years, from $1.8 trillion today to $4.1 trillion in 2026. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. www.ark-invest.com A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2 Digital Consumers Spending More Time and Money Online Research by Nicholas Grous, ARK Analyst, and Andrew Kim, ARK Analyst Intern
  • 24. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, data sourced from eMarketer, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, United States Census Bureau, United States Department of Labor, and World Bank Group. 24 Digital Consumer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 % of Non-Working Waking Hours Global Average Allocation of Online vs. Offline Time Time Spent Offline Time Spent Online Digital Is Taking Share Of Our Lives The COVID-19 crisis accelerated the shift from offline to online activities. We estimate that on average in 2021, internet users spent 38% of their free time online and 62% offline. By 2030, we expect these averages to flip, with users spending 52% of their free time online and 48% offline.
  • 25. • For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, “List of social platforms with at least 100 million active users,” Wikipedia, last accessed January 18, 2022, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_platforms_with_at_least_100_million_active_users, data sourced from CNBC, Meta Platforms, TechCrunch, Tencent Holdings, and USA Today. 25 Digital Consumer Social Platforms Are Scaling Like Never Before The accelerating adoption of online platforms gives businesses and individuals the ability to reach global audiences. Today, six platforms have more than 1 billion monthly active users, and 29 platforms have at least 100 million monthly active users. 8.7 Years 7.3 Years 7.0 Years 7.2 Years 7.7 Years 5.1 Years 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Monthly Active Users (Millions) Number of Years Since Launch to Reach 1 Billion Monthly Active Users Facebook YouTube WhatsApp WeChat Instagram TikTok
  • 26. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, data sourced from Kagan Research and MAGNA Global USA. 26 Digital Consumer Digital Advertising Is The Primary Channel For Reaching Consumers As traditional advertising declined during the Covid-19 pandemic, digital advertising gained share. By the end of 2021, global digital advertising totaled roughly $440 billion, or 62% of the total advertising market. We believe the global digital advertising market will grow at a 11% compound annual rate over the next eight years, surpassing $1 trillion in expenditures by the end of 2029. $- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total Advertising Expenditure (Billions, USD) Global Advertising Expenditures Digital Ad Spend Traditional Ad Spend
  • 27. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Note: We define social commerce as any online sale of a physical good that takes place within a social media platform or via e-commerce platforms through social features. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC 2021, data from Bond Capital, CEIC Holdings, China Internet Watch, Digital Commerce 360, eMarketer, EuroCommerce, FTI Consulting, Invesp, National Bureau of Statistics of China, and U.S. Census Bureau. 27 Digital Consumer Social Commerce Is The Next Wave In Online Shopping When implemented correctly, social commerce combines the convenience of online shopping with the network effects of social media. We expect social commerce gross merchandise value (GMV) to grow at a compound annual rate of 41% over the next five years to $3.7 trillion, more than doubling it from less than 10% of total e-commerce today to 22% in 2026. $- $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Gross Merchandise Value (Billions, USD) Digitalization of Commerce Traditional Commerce Pure E-Commerce Social Commerce
  • 28. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Our estimate and forecast for the video game industry include only video game content and services and exclude related hardware and accessory sales. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, data sourced from Epic Games, NPD Group, and TwitchTracker. 28 Digital Consumer Games Are The New Social Platforms Fortnite exemplifies the massive shift to social gaming. Launched in 2017 as a first-person battle royale game, today Fortnite holds virtual concerts for millions of players and has dedicated spaces in which users can hang out. We estimate that video game content and services will grow at a 15% compound annual growth rate from roughly $200 billion in 2021 to more than $400 billion by 2026 with the rise of “virtual worlds.” 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Millions of Hours Cumulative Hours of Fortnite Watched on Twitch Collaboration with Balenciaga Ariana Grande Concert Collaboration with NBA J Balvin's Fortnite Concert BTS Music Video Premiere Discovery Shark Week Premiere Party Royale Launch Travis Scott Concert Live Event with Star Wars Collaboration with Marvel Begins Marshmello Concert Collaboration with NFL Begins Fortnite Initial Release May-17 Feb-18 Nov-18 Aug-19 May-20 Mar-21 Dec-21
  • 29. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, data sourced from CEIC Data, China Internet Watch, Department of Labor and Training, Digital Commerce 360, EuroCommerce, eMarketer, Federal Reserve Economic Data, FTI Consulting, Invesp, Mary Meeker, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Newzoo, NPD Group, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Statista, US Census Bureau, the World Bank, and US Bureau of Labor Services.. 29 Digital Consumer We Estimate That The Revenue Associated With Discretionary Online Time Will Increase From $1.8 Trillion Today To $4.1 Trillion In 2026 We identify three online revenue segments: • Entertainment Spend • Advertising • Platform E-Commerce Fees Based on ARK's research, the market should grow from $0.19 to $0.29 on a cost per hour basis during the next five years. On a total revenue basis, we expect the market to grow at a 18% compound annual rate during the next five years, from $1.8 trillion today to $4.1 trillion in 2026. $- $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Global Cost Per Hour Estimated Monetization per Hour of Discretionary Time Online Entertainment Spend (Direct) Advertising (Indirect) Platform E-Commerce Fees (Direct)
  • 30. • Today, digital wallets like Venmo, Cash App, and others around the globe are penetrating traditional financial services, including brokerage and lending, thanks to what we believe are superior user experiences and much lower costs of acquisition. In ARK’s view, digital wallets could scale at an annual rate of 69% in the US, from more than $400 billion in market capitalization to $5.7 trillion, and 78% globally, from $1.1 to $20 trillion, during the next five years. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 www.ark-invest.com A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2 Digital Wallets Upending Traditional Banking Research by Max Friedrich, ARK Analyst, and Nishita Jain, ARK Research Associate
  • 31. • For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021; Worldpay Global Payments Report issues 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021. ARK estimates for 2017. 31 Digital Wallets Digital Wallets Are The Number One Payment Method Offline And Online Dominating e-commerce payments since 2017, digital wallets surpassed cash last year in point-of-sales (POS) payments, likely in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Top Payment Methods as Share of Global E-Commerce Purchase Volume Digital Wallet Credit Card Debit Card Bank Transfer Cash on Delivery 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2018 2019 2020 Top Payment Methods as Share of Global Point-of-Sales (POS) Purchase Volume Digital Wallet Credit Card Debit Card Cash
  • 32. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. [1] Refers to number of J.P. Morgan Chase deposit accounts <$100,000 prior to 2010 and number of deposit accounts <$250,000 after 2010 due to changing reporting regulation. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, based on data sourced from: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Statistics on Depository Institutions (SDI) and RIS. 32 Digital Wallets The Number Of Digital Wallet Users Has Surpassed The Number Of Deposit Account Holders At One Of The Largest US Banks Based on publicly available data, Square’s Cash App and PayPal’s Venmo have amassed 74 million and 82 million annual active users in the past 8 and 11 years, respectively. J.P. Morgan hit 60 million deposit account holders after five acquisitions in more than 30 years.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Deposit Accounts / Annual Active Users (Millions) J.P. Morgan Chase Deposit Accounts vs. Cash App and Venmo Annual Active Users (AAUs) J.P. Morgan Deposit. Accounts Cash App AAUs Venmo AAUs Merger Chemical Bank, Manufacturers Hanover Merger Chemical Bank, Chase Manhattan Bank Merger Chase Manhattan Bank, J.P. Morgan Acquisition Bank One Acquisition Washington Mutual
  • 33. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 33 Digital Wallets Digital Wallets Are Differentiated By Customer Acquisition Strategies Customer Acquisition Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Vertical Integration into Financial Services Land and Expand Merchant-First Examples Market Structure Developing markets with low financial services penetration Developed or developing markets with opportunities to optimize a single use case in financial services Developed or developing markets suffering from friction in P2P or cross-border payments Mostly developed markets with well-established financial services, making (P2P) payments an unattractive customer acquisition strategy Strategy Expanding into financial services, often with giveaways or rewards Growing P2P networks organically, sometimes accelerated by partnerships with brands or influencers Leveraging trust with customers to cross-sell other products Using relationships with established merchants to acquire retail customers, mostly through cash-back campaigns
  • 34. • For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, Company information and ARK Estimates 34 Based on network effects, viral marketing, and arguably superior value propositions, digital wallet providers spend as little as $1 to acquire new customers, giving them room to invest and move up-market. On a net basis, traditional banks in the US spend roughly $750 in paid marketing and roughly $2500 in total, including the occupancy expenses for branch networks, to acquire a new customer Differentiated Customer Acquisition Strategies Result In Lower Customer Acquisition Costs Digital Wallets $1 $5 $18 $26 $750 $2,500 $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Nubank Cash App Tinkoff Bank Kaspi US Banks: Paid Marketing US Banks: Paid Marketing and Occupancy Costs Customer Acquisition Costs: Digital Wallets vs. US Banks
  • 35. • $22,500 $12,400 $1,700 $1,200 $2,400 $2,300 $1,800 $700 $- $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 Total Offline & Online Com m erce W eb3 Investing (Stocks & Crypto) Insurance Personal Credit and Mortgage Paym ents Saving and Spending Account Value Per User (USD) Potential Value Per Average Digital Wallet User (U.S.) Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. All net present value estimates based on 2020 or 2021, except web3. Offline/Online Commerce assumes digital wallet captures lead generation fee for 100% of offline and online average US consumer retail spend. Insurance assumes digital wallet captures lead generation fee on average insurance revenue per US consumer. Saving and Spending Account assumes digital wallet captures spread between interest rate and risk-free rate for average balance of US transaction accounts as defined by the Federal Reserve or lead generation fee on net interest income. Offline and Online Payments assumes digital wallet captures fee on 100% of offline and online average US consumer retail spend. Personal credit and mortgage assumes digital wallet captures spread between interest rate and risk-free rate for interest income from average debt per adult in US or or lead-generation fee on net interest income. Investing assumes digital wallet captures revenue (excluding commissions) from average US brokerage and cryptocurrency exchange consumer. Web3 assumes digital wallet captures lead-generation or first party marketplace fee on 100% of 2026 web3 Gross Merchandise Value as forecasted by ARK. 35 Digital Wallets Each Digital Wallet User In The US Could Be Worth $22,500 At Maturity If digital wallets were to become consumer financial dashboards, ARK estimates that the net present value of their financial service revenues would be roughly $10,000 per average US user. Beyond financial services, digital wallets could become lead-generation platforms for offline and online commerce, potentially adding more than $12,000 to their net present value per user. Digital wallets also could serve as on-ramps to Web3 assets, such as NFTs. ARK estimates that such Web3 monetization could add $1,700 to their net present value per user.
  • 36. • 36 Digital Wallets The US Digital Wallet Opportunity Could Scale 69% At An Annual Rate From More Than $400 Billion In 2021 To $5.7 Trillion In 2026. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. Digital Wallet Penetration of Smartphone Users 2026 (US) 50% 75% 100% 127 Million 190 Million 250 Million Digital Wallet Users 2026 (US) Potential Value per Digital Wallet User (US) $22,500 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% Penetration of Potential Value per Digital Wallet User Digital Wallet Opportunity (US) 100% $140 Billion $210 Billion $290 Billion $290 Billion $420 Billion $570 Billion $710 Billion $1 Trillion $1.4 Trillion $1.4 Trillion $2.1 Trillion $2.8 Trillion $2.1 Trillion $3.2 Trillion $4.2 Trillion $2.8 Trillion $4.2 Trillion $5.7 Trillion If every US smartphone user, valued at $22,500 per user, would adopt a digital wallet by 2026.
  • 37. • 37 Digital Wallets The Global Digital Wallet Opportunity Could Scale 78% At An Annual Rate From $1.1 Trillion To $20 Trillion In 2026. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. If every global smartphone user, valued at $3,800 per user, would adopt a digital wallet by 2026. 1 Applying ratio of Global GDP per Capita to US GDP per Capita to Potential Value per Digital Wallet User in US to estimate Global Potential Value per Digital Wallet User Digital Wallet Penetration of Smartphone Users 2026 (Global) 50% 75% 100% 2.7 Billion 4.1 Billion 5.4 Billion Digital Wallet Users 2026 (Global) Potential Value per Digital Wallet User (Global) 1 $3,800 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% Penetration of Potential Value per Digital Wallet User Digital Wallet Opportunity (Global) 100% $500 Billion $750 Billion $1 Trillion $1 Trillion $1.5 Trillion $2 Trillion $2.5 Trillion $3.8 Trillion $5 Trillion $5 Trillion $7.7 Trillion $10 Trillion $7.7 Trillion $12 Trillion $15 Trillion $10 Trillion $15 Trillion $20 Trillion
  • 38. • Public blockchains are powering novel forms of coordination across money, finance, and the internet. By decentralizing institutions with open-source software, blockchain technology minimizes the need to trust centralized authorities. We believe bitcoin is the most profound application of public blockchains, the foundation of “self-sovereign” digital money. The Bitcoin protocol has enabled two other revolutions: The Financial (DeFi) and Internet (Web3) Revolutions. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. www.ark-invest.com A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2 Enabling a Coordination Revolution Research by Yassine Elmandjra and Frank Downing, ARK Analysts, and Nishita Jain, ARK Research Associate Public Blockchains
  • 39. • Note: Each entity presented above is a representative sample of a ”name brand” in their respective verticals. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 39 Public Blockchain Public Blockchains Minimize The Need To Trust Centralized Authorities Public blockchains shift the distribution of trust, replacing institutions that rely on centralized authorities with decentralized, open- source software. The first profound application was self-sovereign, digital money (bitcoin). While centralized institutions must coordinate the functions of a financial system, Bitcoin operates as a single, decentralized institution. Instead of relying on accountants, regulators, and governments, Bitcoin relies on a global network of peers to enforce rules. Traditional Institutions Manual, Centralized, Less Consistent, Opaque Public Blockchains Automated, Distributed, Consistent, Transparent Custody and Asset Management Federal Reserve J.P. Morgan Visa Bitcoin A distributed monetary system that facilitates the transfer and custody of bitcoin, a scarce digital asset. Monetary Policy Custody and Asset Management Transaction Settlement Monetary Policy Transaction Settlement
  • 40. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 40 Public Blockchain Public Blockchains Have Unique Characteristics Public blockchain infrastructure serves as the backbone for new forms of economic coordination: it minimizes the need to trust centralized institutions. The decentralized, open, and permissionless characteristics of public blockchains lower the cost of coordination, among other advantages. Status Quo Infrastructure Closed-Source Network rules are determined behind closed doors at the discretion of companies, platforms, and regulators Centralized Central authorities mediate network activity Corporate-Run Corporations facilitate coordination, often excluding network participants Permissioned Geography and regulation control access to platforms Public Blockchain Infrastructure Open-Source Network rules are open and auditable, coordinated by users and stakeholders Decentralized Distributed computer nodes mediate network activity User-Run Network participants facilitate coordination through a fair system of checks and balances Permissionless Anyone with an internet connection can participate and innovate
  • 41. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 and Srinivasan, Balaji, Twitter, 23 Apr. 2021, twitter.com/balajis/status/1385572764485001221. 41 Public Blockchain Public Blockchains Could Transform Every Traditional Asset Class Investors once thought the internet was a new channel among others: Radio TV Newspaper Internet Now, the internet is facilitating all channels: Internet Online Radio Online TV Online News Communication E-Commerce … Similarly, cryptoassets issued on public blockchains are likely to impact all asset classes. Just as the internet turned information into packets online, public blockchains are likely to turn all assets into transactions on-chain. Public Blockchains Crypto-currencies Crypto-equities Crypto-commodities Crypto-art (NFTs) DAOs …
  • 42. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 42 Public Blockchain Public Blockchains Are Stirring Several Revolutions In our view, the Bitcoin protocol created the most profound application of public blockchain infrastructure. In addition to the Money Revolution, public blockchains also have catalyzed Financial and Internet Revolutions. Public Blockchain Infrastructure Fiat Currencies & Central Banking Global, Decentralized, Non-State Money Traditional Finance (TradFi) Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Corporate-Owned Platforms Interoperable, User- Owned Web Bitcoin DeFi Web3 Coordination of value transfer and property rights outside the purview of centralized authorities, governments, and top-down control Coordination of financial services and contracts outside the purview of traditional financial institutions Coordination of identity, reputation, and data outside the purview of traditional media conglomerates and big tech The Money Revolution The Financial Revolution The Internet Revolution
  • 43. • Note: Each entity presented above is a representative sample of a ”name brand” in their respective verticals. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC., 2021 43 Public Blockchain Each Revolution Involves A Different Level of Trust In our view, the Money Revolution requires predictable monetary assurances, maximum decentralization, and conservatism. The Financial and Internet Revolutions require some tradeoffs to achieve scalability, convenience, and innovation. Competing blockchains should recognize that too much trust in centralized authorities risks a reversion to the status quo. Discretionary, Highly Regulated Networks Closed-loop, slow to adapt, highly permissioned, optimized for centralized control and scale Central Government, Scale, Vendor Lock-in Decentralized Trust Centralized Trust The Money Revolution The Financial & Internet Revolutions Status Quo Objective Rules-Based Self-Sovereign Money Ethos Conservative and predictable, resilient to change, optimized for security and decentralization Moat Objective Composable, Permissionless Programming Ethos Progressive, technology focused, experimental, optimized for functionality and scalability Moat Dev Ecosystem, “Decentralized Enough,” Feature-Rich, Venture Funded Objective Ethos Moat Monetary Integrity, Proof of Work, Highly Decentralized, Founder Myth, Fair Launch Binance Smart Chain Solana, Avalanche, Terra Ethereum Bitcoin
  • 44. • As bitcoin’s market capitalization hit an all-time high in 2021, ARK’s research indicated that its network fundamentals remained healthy. Bitcoin’s market capitalization still represents a fraction of global assets and is likely to scale as nation-states adopt as legal tender. According to our estimates, the price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. www.ark-invest.com A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2 Bitcoin A Monetary Revolution Research by Yassine Elmandjra, ARK Analyst
  • 45. • 45 Bitcoin $0.0 $0.2 $0.4 $0.6 $0.8 $1.0 $1.2 $1.4 January February March April May June July August September October November Tesla allocates 8% of its cash to Bitcoin China calls for severe crackdown on Bitcoin mining Bitcoin hits $1 trillion market capitalization Canadian regulators approve world’s first Bitcoin ETF El Salvador accepts bitcoin as legal tender SEC approves first Bitcoin Futures ETF Taproot, Bitcoin’s long-anticipated upgrade, activates Tesla suspends bitcoin payments for vehicle purchases amidst environmental concerns ARK speaks at The B Word: How Institutions Can Embrace Bitcoin Twitter enables BTC tipping Bitcoin hash rate hits an all-time high Bitcoin’s hash-rate hits a 2-year low Bitcoin Market Capitalization 2021 Market Capitalization (Trillions, USD) Bitcoin Reached $1 Trillion In Market Capitalization In 2021 For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glassnode Pro, Cointelegraph, Feb 8, 2021 https://cointelegraph.com/news/tesla-allocates-7-7-of-gross-cash-to-bitcoin; Mondaq March 18, 2021 https://www.mondaq.com/canada/fin-tech/1047964/canadian-regulators-approve-world39s-first-bitcoin-etf-for-individual-investors, Wall Street Journal May 12 2021 https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-says-tesla-suspends-accepting-bitcoin- for-vehicle-purchases-11620858838 NPR September 7 2021 https://www.npr.org/2021/09/07/1034838909/bitcoin-el-salvador-legal-tender-official-currency-cryptocurrency; Twitter September 23 2021 https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2021/bringing-tips-to-everyone; Coindesk October 15 2021 https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2021/10/15/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf-opening-crypto-to-wider-investor-base/; Coindesk November 12 2021 https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2021/11/13/taproot-bitcoins-long-anticipated-upgrade-activates-this-weekend/
  • 46. • 46 Bitcoin 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Realized Capitalization (Billions, USD) Bitcoin’s Aggregate Cost Basis Hit A New Record In 2021 While Bitcoin’s market capitalization grew by 96% in 2021, its realized capitalization grew by 168%. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Accumulation Addresses Amount of BTC Held By Long Term Holders Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Base Hit An All Time High in 2021 Long Term Holder Supply Accumulation Addresses Long-term investors hold 13.5 million BTC, with more than 500,000 addresses exhibiting long-term holding behavior. Bitcoin’s Market Participants Are Maturing And Focused On The Long-Term Despite increased exuberance as bitcoin scaled to a record high price, on-chain data suggests that bitcoin holders are focused on long-term fundamentals. Note: Accumulation addresses are defined as addresses that have at least 2 incoming non-dust transfers and have never spent funds. Note: “Long-term holder base” refers to Bitcoin that has not been moved in 155 days or more. “Bitcoin dust” refers to the very small amounts of bitcoin leftover or unspent in a transaction that is lower in value than the minimum limit of a valid transaction. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glasssnode
  • 47. • 47 Bitcoin Bitcoin Is Taking Market Share As A Global Settlement Network Bitcoin’s cumulative transfer volume increased by 463% in 2021. Bitcoin’s annual settlement volume has surpassed Visa’s payments volume. Note: All BTC transfer volume and transaction value metrics are on a change-adjusted basis. ARK's calculation for average change-adjusted transaction value uses both the total and the mean change-adjusted volume metrics aggregated by Glassnode. Visa payments volume is on a nominal-basis as reported by the company. It includes global consumer credit, consumer debit, and commercial payment volumes. Visa 2021 Q4 nominal payments volume is annualized based on historical Q4 quarter-over-quarter growth. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glasssnode, Visa, and FRB Services Bitcoin Metrics 2020 2021 Cumulative Annual Transfer Volume $ BTC $2.3 trillion 212.0 million $13.1 trillion 275.4 million Average Daily Transfer Volume $ BTC $6.4 billion 579,190 $35.9 billion 754,499 Average Transaction Value $ BTC $21,590 1.97 $136,555 2.87 Bitcoin’s Transfer Value Metrics, On Both An Absolute and Price-Adjusted Basis 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% $0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 $12.0 $14.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 BTC Volume as % of Visa Payments Volume Annual Transfer Volume (Trillion, USD) Bitcoin Settled ~$13.1 Trillion in 2021
  • 48. • 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 2018 2019 2020 2021 BTC Capacity Lightning Network Channels Network Channels BTC Capacity 48 Bitcoin Bitcoin activated Taproot, its biggest base-layer protocol upgrade since SegWit in 2017. Along with the introduction of Schnorr signatures, Taproot could increase the privacy and efficiency of Bitcoin transactions. Successful Soft Fork Activation Bitcoin-Denominated DeFi Tokenized bitcoin on other blockchains provides holders with features and functionality not available on the Bitcoin network. As of Nov. 21, 2021, 315,000 BTC, or 1.5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, is “wrapped” on Ethereum. Lightning Network (LN), a second layer payment protocol built on Bitcoin, saw significant growth. LN channels and BTC capacity on LN increased 119% and 210%, respectively. LN Channels and BTC Capacity* 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Aug 2020 Feb 2021 Aug 2021 BTC on Ethereum BTC on Ethereum WBTC HBTC renBTC sBTC Complex transactions require a single merged signature, greatly reducing the bandwidth and storage burden on the protocol. *BTC Capacity is the total BTC locked across all Lightning Network channels. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glasssnode and Coingecko Bitcoin Could Continue To Scale In Response To Technological Breakthroughs Last year, Bitcoin made conservative, strategic enhancements at the base layer while encouraging experimentation “off-chain.” Sender Receiver “Layer 2” Growth
  • 49. • 49 Bitcoin Exchange Traded Products, Countries, and Corporations Held 8% of Bitcoin’s Supply As of November 2021 Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Remains The Largest Non-Custodian Bitcoin Holder As of November 2021 1. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 2. Block.one 3. Microstrategy 4. Coinshares XBT Provider 5. Tesla Inc. 6. Purpose Bitcoin ETF 7. 3IQ Coinshares ETF 8. ETC Group Bitcoin ETP 9. The Tezos Foundation 10. Galaxy Digital Ten Largest Publicly Disclosed Bitcoin Holders Holder BTC 654,200 140,000 121,044 48,466 42,902 24,097 22,010 17,976 17,500 16,400 Type ETP Balance Sheet Balance Sheet ETP Balance Sheet ETP ETP ETP Balance Sheet ETP Bitcoin Is Attracting Institutional Holders Bitcoin’s institutional holder base appears to be broadening after the launch of more regulated products and adoption by corporations and nation-states. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/treasuries/ Category # of Bitcoin % of Circulating Supply Value Today ($ billions) ETPs 816,379 4.32% $49.0 Countries 263,037 1.39% $15.8 Public Companies 231,781 1.23% $13.9 Private Companies 174,068 0.92% $10.4 Total 1,494,824 7.91% $89.7
  • 50. • 50 Bitcoin • In September, El Salvador became the first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. • As of December 31, 2021, El Salvador had purchased 1,391 BTC. • An estimated 3.8 million people use El Salvador’s Bitcoin wallet, Chivo, suggesting 84% adoption among eligible citizens. • Chivo was settling $2 million in remittances daily as of October 2021, accounting for roughly 12% of El Salvador’s $6 Billion in annual remittances and more than 2% of its GDP. 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Chivo Wallet Users Traditional Bank Accounts Salvadoran Citizens (millions) In El Salvador, More People Have Bitcoin Wallets Than Traditional Bank Accounts El Salvador Is The First Nation-State To Adopt Bitcoin As Legal Tender For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Forbes, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s Twitter Feed https://twitter.com/nayibbukele July August Salvadoran Congress Approves Bitcoin Law by a Super Majority El Salvador Mines First Bitcoin With Volcanic Energy June Bitcoin Becomes Legal Tender in El Salvador El Salvador Buys its first 200 bitcoin El Salvador Announces $1 Billion Bitcoin Bond Issue November October September El Salvador to use Bitcoin Profits to Build 20 Schools Chivo Wallet Users Surpass Bank Accounts
  • 51. • 51 Bitcoin Bitcoin incentivizes new and more efficient forms of energy generation. Bitcoin mining can capture natural gas that otherwise would be vented or flared. Bitcoin mining can encourage investment in intermittent energy systems, increasing renewables share of energy provisioned to the grid. Environmental Governance Bitcoin is open, transparent, auditable, and predictable. Bitcoin has no central point of failure and reduces potential human bias and error. Bitcoin incorporates a unique system of checks and balances intended to encourage protocol innovation and maintenance, ensuring that any changes are in the interest of stakeholders. Bitcoin offers a system of property rights without reliance on nation-states, protecting the purchasing power of people in countries with strict capital controls, highly inflationary currencies, or capricious governments. Bitcoin is open to anyone as it does not rely on a centralized authority to determine the eligibility of participants. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. Concerns About Bitcoin’s Lack Of Sustainability Seem Ill-Informed Our research suggests that Bitcoin has the potential to transform monetary history by providing financial freedom and empowerment in a fair, global, and distributed way. Social
  • 52. • 52 Bitcoin Bitcoin Mining Has Evolved Into A Multibillion Dollar Industry Converting energy into a monetary asset can be critical in times of geopolitical uncertainty and financial market volatility. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021, based on data sourced from: Glassnode, CBECI • Bitcoin’s innovative potential rests in its ability to facilitate the transfer of value without relying on a centralized authority. The key enabler is proof-of-work mining. • Bitcoin incentivizes the discovery of cost-efficient energy sources, independent of location and consumer demand. • Following China’s crackdown on mining, the US has emerged as the leader in Bitcoin mining, accounting for more than 35% of total hash rate as of November 2021. • Nation-states like El Salvador are investing heavily in Bitcoin mining infrastructure. In October 2021, El Salvador announced the mining of bitcoin with energy from its volcanos, three months after instructing state-owned geothermal electric company La Geo to plan for bitcoin mining. A Digital-Monetary Energy Network $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cumulative Miner Revenue (Billions, USD) Daily Miner Revenue (Millions, USD) Bitcoin Miners Generated Revenue of $16.7 billion in 2021 Cumulative Miner Revenue Daily Miner Revenue
  • 53. • 53 Bitcoin 10% 20% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 99% of Grid Demand Met 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Solar Installation Power (MW) Battery System (MWh) A Solar and Battery Bitcoin System Could Meet Grid Dispatch Targets at Constant Cost of Electricity1 (Size of Bubble = Bitcoin Mining Power) Bitcoin Mining Could Revolutionize Energy Production According to our research, bitcoin mining will encourage and generate more electricity from renewable carbon-free sources. [1] Note: The addition of Bitcoin mining into power developers’ toolboxes should increase the overall addressable market for renewable and intermittent power sources. In the bottom left of the chart, in the absence of Bitcoin mining, renewables can satisfy only 40% of the grid’s needs. In the top right of the chart, including Bitcoin mining, solar and batteries can satisfy 99% of the grid’s demand.For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. • As energy buyers, Bitcoin miners could incentivize new and more efficient forms of energy generation. • According to ARK’s research, intermittent energy sources like wind and solar could meet a larger percentage of grid demand if Bitcoin mining impacts the utility grid. • Energy asset owners could become bitcoin miners. • The addition of Bitcoin mining into power developers’ toolboxes should increase the overall addressable market for renewable and intermittent power sources. In the bottom left of the chart, in the absence of Bitcoin mining, renewables might satisfy only 40% of the grid’s needs. In the top right of the chart, with the introduction of Bitcoin mining, solar and batteries could satisfy 99% of the grid’s demand.
  • 54. • 54 Bitcoin Now A Fraction Of Global Asset Values, Bitcoin Has Significant Appreciation Potential Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. $220 $124 $123 $106 $10 $1.1 $28.5 $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 Global Real Estate Global Bonds Global M2 Global Equities Gold Bitcoin (2021) Bitcoin (2030E) Market Capitalization (Trillions, USD) Market Capitalization of Major Asset Classes As Of November 2021 According to our research, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could scale more than 25-fold in the next decade, with each exceeding $1 million in value. 25.9x
  • 55. • 55 Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021. | Corporate Treasury Data Source: Capital IQ, Seizure Resistant Asset Data Source: https://worldwealthreport.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2021/07/World-Wealth-Report-2021.pdf, Remittances Market Data Source: https://thefintechtimes.com/global-remittance-market-is-expected-to-grow-by-200-billion-by-2026/ , Nation State Treasury Data Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?end=2020&start=2002 Note: a 25x price multiplier was applied to Nation-state treasury and corporate treasury opportunities. The price multiplier is the upper bound estimate made by Chris Burniske (Co-author of Cryptoassets: The Innovative Investor's Guide to Bitcoin and Beyond and Partner at VC firm Placeholder), which roughly equates to the average between the estimated lower bound made by Burniske and the estimated upper bound made by Citi Bank https://medium.com/@cburniske/cryptoassets-flow- amplification-reflexivity-7e306815dd8c Bitcoin The Price Of One Bitcoin Could Exceed $1 Million by 2030 Bitcoin (2030E) $4.0 trillion $3.8 trillion $3.8 trillion $2.8 trillion $0.3 trillion Remittance Network 50% of global remittances at 1.5x velocity Emerging Market Currency 10% of M2 (excludes top 4 countries) Economic Settlement Network 25% of US bank settlement volumes Nation-State Treasury 1% of total reserves Seizure-Resistant Asset 5% of global HNWI wealth $190,000 / BTC $181,000 / BTC $181,000 / BTC $133,000 / BTC $14,000 / BTC Bitcoin Use Case Market Cap Value per BTC $1.36 million / BTC $28.5 trillion $1.36 million / BTC $5.5 trillion $4.2 trillion Corporate Treasury 5% of cash of S&P 500 companies $260,000 / BTC $200,000 / BTC $4.1 trillion Institutional Investment 2.55% of institutional asset base $196,000 / BTC Digital Gold 50% of gold’s total market capitalization $1.1 $28.5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 Bitcoin (2021) Bitcoin (2030E) Market Capitalization (Trillions, USD) Bitcoin Market Capitalization
  • 56. • Decentralized Finance (DeFi) promises more interoperability, transparency, and financial services while minimizing intermediary fees and counterparty risk. After a turbulent 2018-2019, Ethereum emerged in 2021 as the predominant smart contracting platform for decentralized finance and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). According to ARK’s research ether (ETH) is both the preferred collateral in DeFi and the unit of account in NFT marketplaces, suggesting that it is likely to capture a portion of the $123 trillion global money supply. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. www.ark-invest.com A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2 Ethereum & DeFi A Financial Revolution Research by Frank Downing, ARK Analyst, and Nishita Jain, ARK Research Associate
  • 57. • 57 Ethereum and DeFi Smart Contracts Are Usurping Traditional Financial Functions At The Margin Smart contracting platforms like Ethereum are open and transparent. They do not rely on traditional financial intermediaries, thereby reducing counterparty risk. Examples: Traditional Finance Function Examples: Decentralized Finance Bank of America Banking & Lending Compound New York Stock Exchange Exchange Uniswap Robinhood Brokerage Metamask Blackrock Asset Management Yearn AIG Insurance Nexus Mutual CME Group Derivatives DYDX Note: Each entity presented above is a representative sample of a ”name brand” in their respective verticals. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: “Defi Report Q1 2021.” Consensys, https://consensys.net/reports/defi-report-q1-2021.
  • 58. • 58 Ethereum and DeFi Ether Hit New Highs In Response To DeFi and NFTs Built on Ethereum, DeFi, stablecoins, and NFTs pushed ether to an all time high in late 2021. Since the speculative ICO washout in 2018, Ethereum’s activity has evolved considerably. ETH2 Beacon Chain Launches Beeple sells $69 million NFT Canadian ETH ETFs Launch Stablecoin marketcap hits $100 billion EIP 1559 OpenSea tops $6B Q3 Volume ATH $- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Ether’s Price ICO Washout “Crypto Winter” ”DeFi Summer” For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: “The Beacon Chain.” Ethereum.org, Ethereum Foundation, 7 July 2021, https://ethereum.org/en/eth2/beacon-chain/; DiCamillo, Nate. “Canada Approves Three Ethereum Etfs in One Day.” CoinDesk Latest Headlines RSS, CoinDesk, 16 Apr. 2021, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/04/16/canada-approves-three-ethereum-etfs-in-one-day/; “Ethereum: Price.” Glassnode, https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=ETH&category=&m=market.PriceUsdClose; Kastrenakes, Jacob. “Beeple Sold an NFT for $69 Million.” The Verge, The Verge, 11 Mar. 2021, https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/11/22325054/beeple-christies- nft-sale-cost-everydays-69-million; “NFT Marketplace Monthly Volume.” The Block, https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/nft-non-fungible-tokens/marketplaces/nft-marketplace-monthly-volume; Sigalos, MacKenzie. “Ethereum Just Activated a Major Change Called the 'London Hard Fork' - Here's Why It's a Big Deal.” CNBC, CNBC, 5 Aug. 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/05/ethereum-just-activated-its-london-hard-fork-and-its-a-big-deal.html; “Total Stablecoin Supply.” The Block, https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/decentralized-finance/stablecoins/total-stablecoin-supply-daily;
  • 59. • 59 Ethereum and DeFi Increased Network Activity Has Pushed Ethereum’s Transaction Fees Higher Than Those For Bitcoin Higher fees have created demand for ”Layer 2” scaling solutions to lower Ethereum’s transaction fees while maintaining security. $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Fee Revenue Per Transaction ETH Fees Per TX BTC Fees Per TX For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glassnode
  • 60. • 60 Ethereum and DeFi Crypto-Powered Finance Might Scale More Efficiently Than Traditional Finance Smart contract-based financial transactions settle in near real-time almost anywhere in the world. Revenue per employee illustrates DeFi’s efficiency relative to that of traditional finance (TradFi). For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Note: DeFi application revenue is defined as Total Revenue by TokenTerminal (https://www.tokenterminal.com/terminal/metrics/revenue) – “How much are users paying to use a project’s service? Revenue refers to the total fees paid by a blockchain’s or decentralized application’s end users and does not include Ethereum transaction fees. DeFi application employee count is defined as number of employees on the LinkedIn page for the founding entity (i.e., Compound Labs for Compound Protocol). TradFi Revenue and Employees is sourced from Ycharts and is based on standard quarterly financial statements. Representative companies [1] LTM is defined as last twelve-month revenue. TradFi defined as Traditional Finance and representative of a traditional public company in the financial services industry. DeFi defined as Decentralized Finance, a categorization of software deployed on public blockchains focused on financial services functions. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: YCharts; TokenTerminal; LinkedIn $- $10 $20 $30 $40 Banking Exchange Brokerage Asset Management Insurance Derivatives LTM Revenue Per Employee (Millions)1 TradFi DeFi Uniswap Compound Robinhood Metamask Yearn AIG BOA Exchange Blackrock Nexus Mutual CME Group dYdX Note: Each entity presented above is a representative sample of a ”name brand” in their respective verticals.
  • 61. • Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) Enable A Novel Form Of Coordination And Governance 61 Critical to DeFi’s governance, DAOs are replacing centralized, hierarchical corporate structures with decentralized communities. Ethereum and DeFi For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. [1] As of January 4, 2022 | [2] CoinGecko market cap number as of December 31, 2021 | [3] Permissioned / Permissionless referring to the level of access rights required to obtain or assume ownership in a Traditional Corporation (private or public company) vs. a DAO. In Traditional Corporations, accredited investor status or access to a KYC’d US brokerage account is often necessary to become an owner, where as the barriers of entry to a DAO are much lower – often needing nothing more than an internet access to transact on the underlying blockchain network. [4] CoinMarketCap data Note: Uniswap DAO was selected as a representative, ”name brand” DAO for illustrative purposes Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: DeFi Llama, Etherscan, CoinGecko, Uniswap Ownership3 Governance Accounting Discourse Traditional Corporations DAOs Permissioned Permissionless Costly Frictionless Opaque Transparent Private Public • UNI token launched in September 2020 • 60% of genesis supply allocated to early community members • ~$7.8 billion2 in UNI token market cap • ~296,0004 unique addresses with UNI token2 71.5 41.2 9.6 7.6 4.6 3.3 5.3 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 T o t a l E x c h a n g e L e n d i n g A s s e t M a n a g e m e n t S e r v i c e s D e r i v a t i v e s & I n s u r a n c e S t a k i n g S e r v i c e s O t h e r DeFi DAOs Market Cap1 (Billions, USD) Uniswap DAO Example:
  • 62. • 62 Stablecoins—cryptoassets pegged to fiat currency, often the USD—serve as fixed-value assets for crypto trading, lending, and payments in both centralized and decentralized markets. They increased nearly 5x in 2021. On international crypto exchanges with limited access to US Bank accounts, like Binance, stablecoin-denominated trading pairs account for more than 70% of total trading volume on centralized crypto exchanges, well above USD- denominated trading at only 15%. Used heavily in DeFi, stablecoins account for 95% of total outstanding debt on Compound and 22% of total liquidity on Uniswap. Ethereum and DeFi $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 2019 2020 2021 USD Stablecoin Supply (Billions, USD) USDT USDC BUSD UST DAI USDP HUSD GUSD Stablecoins Have Fueled Crypto Trading, Lending, And Payments For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Glassnode, CoinMarketCap, The Block, DeFi Llama, Dune Analytics, Messari, Uniswap
  • 63. • 63 Regulators Are Prioritizing Crypto Innovations, Especially DeFi Ethereum and DeFi Source: ARK investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: Banjo, Shelly, and Francesca Maglione. NYC Mayor-Elect Adams Says He’ll Take Paycheck in Bitcoin. Bloomberg, 4 Nov. 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/nyc-mayor-elect-eric-adams-says- he-ll-take-paycheck-in-bitcoin?sref=1f7Aj053. China's Top Regulators Ban Crypto Trading and Mining, Sending Bitcoin Tumbling. Reuters, 24 Sept. 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-central-bank-vows-crackdown-cryptocurrency-trading-2021-09-24/, Coinbase. The SEC Has Told Us It Wants to Sue Us over Lend. We Don’t Know Why. The Coinbase Blog, 8 Sept. 2021, https://blog.coinbase.com/the-sec-has-told-us-it-wants-to-sue-us-over-lend-we-have-no-idea-why-a3a1b6507009, Condon, Christopher. “Yellen Tells Regulators to ‘Act Quickly’ on Stablecoin Rules.” Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg, 19 July 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-19/yellen-tells-regulators-to-act-quickly-on-stablecoin-rules?sref=1f7Aj053, Crooks, Nathan. Miami’s Mayor Says He’Ll Take His Next Paycheck in Bitcoin. Bloomberg, 2 Nov. 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-02/miami-mayor-suarez-says-he-ll-take-next-paycheck-in-bitcoin-kvifidjb?sref=1f7Aj053. Digital Asset Policy Proposal: Safeguarding America’s Financial Leadership. The Coinbase Blog, 14 Oct. 2021, https://blog.coinbase.com/digital-asset- policy-proposal-safeguarding-americas-financial-leadership-ce569c27d86c. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: U.S. Has No Plans to Ban Bitcoin and Crypto. Nasdaq, 30 Sept. 2021, https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell%3A-u.s.-has-no-plans-to-ban-bitcoin- and-crypto-2021-09. Hayward, Andrew. Ethereum NFT Game Sorare Investigated by UK Gambling Commission. Decrypt, 11 Oct. 2021, https://decrypt.co/83194/ethereum-nft-game-sorare-investigated-uk-gambling. Michaels, Dave, and Alexander Osipovich. Regulators Investigate Crypto- Exchange Developer Uniswap Labs. The Wall Street Journal, 3 Sept. 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/regulators-investigate-crypto-exchange-developer-uniswap-labs-11630666800?mod=latest_headlines. Post, Kollen. Biden Signs Infrastructure Bill, Handing Crypto Broker Definitions to the US Treasury. The Block, 15 Nov. 2021, https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/124387/biden-signs-infrastructure-bill-handing-crypto-broker-definitions-to-the-us-treasury. Post, Kollen. “Kentucky Is Fifth State to Scrutinize Blockfi's Interest Accounts.” The Block, The Block, 30 July 2021, https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/113124/kentucky-regulator-blockfi-interest-security. President's Working Group on Financial Markets Releases Report and Recommendations on Stablecoins. U.S. Department of the Treasury, 1 Nov. 2021, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press- releases/jy0454. The Promises and Perils of Central Bank Digital Currencies. U.S. House Committee on Financial Services, 27 July 2021, https://financialservices.house.gov/events/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=408111. Remarks Before the Aspen Security Forum. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 3 Aug. 2021, https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/gensler-aspen-security-forum-2021-08-03. Sinclair, Sebastian. Bitcoin Now Legal Tender in El Salvador, Marking World First. CoinDesk, 7 Sept. 2021, https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2021/09/07/bitcoin-now-legal-tender-in- el-salvador-marking-world-first/. Testimony Before the United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 14 Sept. 2021, https://www.sec.gov/news/testimony/gensler-2021-09-14. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urges policymakers to “act quickly” and regulate stablecoins. A fifth state regulator suggests that BlockFi’s interest accounts might violate security laws. The SEC launches an investigation of Uniswap, targeting the developers of the decentralized exchange. China bans crypto again, halting all trading and mining activities in the country. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says the US won’t ban cryptocurrency. Coinbase publishes a Digital Asset Policy Proposal, calling for a new regulatory framework for digital assets. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez commits to receiving his next paycheck in bitcoin, quickly followed by NYC Mayor-elect Eric Adams. July 19 July 30 September 3 September 24 The first country to do so, El Salvador adopts bitcoin as legal tender. September 7 September 30 October 14 November 2 The US House Committee on Financial Services discusses the opportunities and risks associated with CBDCs. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler claims that most crypto exchanges are operating with unregistered securities. Coinbase announces that it received a Wells Notice for its planned Coinbase Lend product. In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, SEC Chairman Gensler emphasizes that the SEC is reviewing stablecoins and lending platforms. The UK Gambling Commission questions fantasy soccer platform Sorare and its use of NFTs. The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets publishes an interagency report on stablecoins. President Biden signs the Infrastructure Bill into law, receiving pushback for its broad crypto tax provisions and ”broker” definitions. July 27 August 3 September 7 September 14 October 11 November 1 November 15
  • 64. • 64 Ethereum and DeFi ETH 2.0 Claim* Considerations More scalable Sharding and layer 2 scaling solutions will expand Ethereum’s throughput from 15 to 100,000 transactions per second. • Layer 2 scaling solutions took off more slowly than expected, hindered by long withdrawal times and limited layer 2 liquidity. • Managing shards and multiple layer 2s will be a challenge for developers. More secure Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus will increase both decentralization and the cost of attacking the network. • Putting control in the hands of the wealthiest token holders and limited physical barriers to entry, increase the risk of centralization. • Existing Proof of Stake chains have not been shown to be more decentralized than Proof of Work. More sustainable Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus is a “greener” alternative to Proof of Work (PoW). • Proof of Work mining could accelerate the world’s transition to renewable energy. • Energy consumed does not mean energy wasted. Ethereum Is A Work In Progress For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: “The Beacon Chain.” Ethereum.org, 31 July 2021, https://ethereum.org/en/eth2/beacon-chain/; Buterin, Vitalik. “Ethereum Whitepaper.” Ethereum.org, 2013, https://ethereum.org/en/whitepaper/; Caffyn, Grace. “Ethereum Launches Long-Awaited Decentralized App Network.” CoinDesk Latest Headlines RSS, CoinDesk, 30 July 2015, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2015/07/30/ethereum- launches-long-awaited-decentralized-app-network/; Ethereum Foundation. Eth2.0 Implementers Call #19 [2019/6/13]. 13 June 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izspfej05lE&t=2640s; Fadilpašić, Sead. “Ethereum Merge Estimated in May-June 2022 - Developers.” Crypto News, 18 Oct. 2021, https://cryptonews.com/news/ethereum-merge-estimated-in-may-june-2022-developers.htm; Vitalik.eth. “2. Ethereum Proof of Stake Research Began in Jan 2014 with Slasher...” Twitter, Twitter, 16 Aug. 2018, https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1029900794353483776. PoS Research Begins Ethereum Whitepaper PoW Mainnet Launches ETH2 Phase 0 Planned for Jan 2020 ETH2 Phase 0 Launches after delay Merge date pushed to May-June 2022 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Ongoing, Iterative Proof of Stake (PoS) Research
  • 65. • 65 Ethereum and DeFi $0.4 $22.5 $122.7 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 ETH Global Financial Services Global M2 Market Capitalization (Trillions, USD) Market Cap Opportunity For Ether (Forecast) 56x According to our research, Ethereum could displace many traditional financial services, and its native token, ether, could compete as global money. As financial services move on-chain, decentralized networks are likely to take share from existing financial intermediaries. The beneficiaries of this shift include Ethereum, the base protocol, and DeFi, the decentralized applications built on top of Ethereum. As the preferred collateral in DeFi and the unit of account in NFT marketplaces, ether (ETH) has the potential to capture a portion of the $123 trillion in global M2. Ether’s Market Cap Could Exceed $20 Trillion In The Next 10 Years Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2021 based on data sourced from: “Broad Money (% of GDP).” The World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FM.LBL.BMNY.GD.ZS; “GDP (Current US$).” The World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD; “Global Financial Services Market Outlook 2021-2030; Expected to Reach $28.52 Trillion by 2025 - Researchandmarkets.com.” Business Wire, 10 Mar. 2021, https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210310005386/en/Global-Financial-Services-Market-Outlook-2021-2030-Expected-to-Reach-28.52-Trillion-by-2025---ResearchAndMarkets.com.
  • 66. • Now that consumers are spending more time and resources online, the importance of digital assets is likely to increase considerably as consumer spending shifts to virtual worlds. A global framework like non-fungible tokens (NFTs) provides a stable way of taking the ownership and control of digital assets away from corporations, to the benefit of individuals. By 2030, we expect Web3 to depress annual offline consumption by $7.3 trillion, boosting direct online expenditures at an annual rate of 28%, from $1.4 trillion today to $12.5 trillion per year. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. www.ark-invest.com A R K • B I G I D E A S 2 0 2 2 Web3 An Internet Revolution Research by Nicholas Grous, Frank Downing, ARK Analysts, and Andrew Kim, ARK Analyst Intern
  • 67. • Digital Ownership Could Accelerate The Transition Of Activity From The Physical To The Digital World We believe Web3 virtual ecosystems will thrive if online human participants can own—as opposed to use or rent— digital assets. In traditional Web 2.0 business models, end users typically face restrictions on products or services. They cannot port in-game assets from one game to another, for example, and they risk censorship on the social media platforms that profit from their content. In contrast, public and decentralized blockchains allow users to store and trade their assets in a legitimate secondary market. Web3 Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. 67 Central Aggregator Protocol Validators Decentralized Apps Web 2.0 Web3 Siloed Data + Assets Public Data + Assets
  • 68. • Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security/cryptocurrency. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, data sourced from Cryptoslam and NonFungible. 68 Web3 Public Blockchains Enable The Ownership Of Digital Assets Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) serve as smart contracts that verify the ownership of digital assets on public blockchains. They usurp the power of centralized platforms to house, control, and verify assets. In 2021, NFTs generated $21 billion in sales as the number of monthly unique buyers soared nearly eight-fold to more than 700,000. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 $- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 J a n - 2 0 F e b - 2 0 M a r - 2 0 A p r - 2 0 M a y - 2 0 J u n - 2 0 J u l - 2 0 A u g - 2 0 S e p - 2 0 O c t - 2 0 N o v - 2 0 D e c - 2 0 J a n - 2 1 F e b - 2 1 M a r - 2 1 A p r - 2 1 M a y - 2 1 J u n - 2 1 J u l - 2 1 A u g - 2 1 S e p - 2 1 O c t - 2 1 N o v - 2 1 D e c - 2 1 Monthly Unique Buyers (Thousands) Millions, USD NFT Demand Total NFT Sales Monthly Unique Buyers