To enlighten investors on the impact of these breakthroughs and the opportunities they will create, we began publishing Big Ideas in 2017. This annual research report highlights the latest developments in innovation and offers some of our most provocative research conclusions for the coming year. We hope you enjoy our “Big Ideas” for 2020.
Innovation is Key to Growth - Big ideas - 2019 - ARK InvestPaulo Ratinecas
Why Invest in Disruptive Innovation?
ARK believes that disruptive innovation is key to growth.
We aim to identify large-scale investment opportunities
by focusing on public companies that are the leaders,
enablers, and beneficiaries of disruptive innovation.
Opportunities resulting from disruptive innovation are
often undiscovered or misunderstood by traditional
investment managers who are focused on sectors,
indexes, short-term earnings and price movements.
ARK’s research spans across sectors, industries, and
markets to gain a deeper understanding of the
convergence, market potential, and long-term impact
of disruptive innovation.
DISRUPTIVEINNOVATION
ARK defines ‘‘disruptive innovation’’ as the introduction
of a technologically enabled new product or service
that should transform economic activity by creating
simplicity and accessibility while driving down costs.
Rooted in almost 40 years of experience, ARK Invest aims to
identify large-scale investment opportunities resulting from
technological change. We believe innovation is key to growth.
From a broad spectrum of disruptive innovations, “Big Ideas”
represents our annual breakout of technologies that we believe
will accelerate significantly in the months ahead.
Each section provides you with a brief introduction before
illustrating the opportunity. At the end of each section we list
sources for additional research and insights.
Since our founding in 2014, ARK Invest has had one focus: Disruptive Innovation. We define disruptive innovation as the introduction of a technologically enabled new product or service that is going to change the way the world works and make it a better place. Seeking to educate investors and innovation enthusiasts, ARK decided to publish “Big Ideas” in 2017. This annual presentation showcases a selection of innovations that we believe will accelerate the pace of change. The research presented aims to illustrate how these ideas are transforming the way the world works and delivering outsized growth opportunities across different industries.
Big Ideas 2018 highlights our research on Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), Robotics, Deep Learning, CRISPR Genome-Editing, Cryptoassets, Frictionless Value Transfers, and 3D Printing.
We invite you to download Big Ideas 2018 and share your thoughts with us!
Artificial Intelligence In Automotive Industry: Surprisingly Slow Uptake And ...Bernard Marr
Artificial intelligence has been a hot topic in the automotive industry for years, and we have seen rapid advances in things like autonomous driving. It, therefore, comes as a bit of a surprise that new research shows a slower than expected AI adoption rate. Let’s look at why.
BootstrapLabs - Tracxn Report - artificial intelligence for the Applied Arti...BootstrapLabs
This report covers companies that provide the infrastructure for creating Artificial Intelligence. These Infrastructure companies include those working on Machine Learning, Deep Learning based platforms, libraries. Some of theses companies also provide platforms for Natural Language Processing and Visual Recognition. In the Applications section, the report covers companies leveraging AI techniques to build applications tailored for end use in Enterprise, Industry & Consumer sectors.
Over $1B has been invested in AI-Infrastructure startups since 2010 with ¬$340M being invested in 2015. Over $7.5B has been invested in AI-Applications startups since 2010 with $2.3B being invested in 2015.
ARK expects that before 2020 fully autonomous vehicles will become commercially available, enabling the rise and rapid growth of autonomous taxi networks. These networks should decrease the cost and inconvenience of point-to-point mobility dramatically, spurring a transformative boost in economic productivity. As a result, the traditional automotive industry may be subsumed by mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) platforms that could become one of the most valuable investment opportunities in public equity markets. Take a look at our Slideshare and discover more about the history, technology, and opportunities surrounding self-driving cars.
2019 London Data Science Festival. Making Money in AI, Machine Learning and ...Simon Greenman
Who’s Going to Make Money in AI and Machine Learning? We’re currently experiencing an AI gold rush. Billions are being invested. AI startups abound. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are duking it out for AI supremacy. Corporations are scrambling to ensure they adopt AI ahead of their competitors while looking over their should at startups. The winners will be the picks and shovels of this gold rush. They are the tech giants that have the scale of data, talent, capital and distribution to power the AI revolution. But enterprises stand to create nearly $4 trillion in value from AI by 2022. But to get AI and data science projects out of experimentation and into use across the organisation requires mobilising and engaging the executive team. AI startups that are looking to scale also need to cross the commercial divide from technology to the enterprise.
This PPT is about AI 100 Startups all over the world based on "The AI 100 -CB insights".
In this research paper, you can find each capital, scale, general info(ref: CB Insights), and features.
Innovation is Key to Growth - Big ideas - 2019 - ARK InvestPaulo Ratinecas
Why Invest in Disruptive Innovation?
ARK believes that disruptive innovation is key to growth.
We aim to identify large-scale investment opportunities
by focusing on public companies that are the leaders,
enablers, and beneficiaries of disruptive innovation.
Opportunities resulting from disruptive innovation are
often undiscovered or misunderstood by traditional
investment managers who are focused on sectors,
indexes, short-term earnings and price movements.
ARK’s research spans across sectors, industries, and
markets to gain a deeper understanding of the
convergence, market potential, and long-term impact
of disruptive innovation.
DISRUPTIVEINNOVATION
ARK defines ‘‘disruptive innovation’’ as the introduction
of a technologically enabled new product or service
that should transform economic activity by creating
simplicity and accessibility while driving down costs.
Rooted in almost 40 years of experience, ARK Invest aims to
identify large-scale investment opportunities resulting from
technological change. We believe innovation is key to growth.
From a broad spectrum of disruptive innovations, “Big Ideas”
represents our annual breakout of technologies that we believe
will accelerate significantly in the months ahead.
Each section provides you with a brief introduction before
illustrating the opportunity. At the end of each section we list
sources for additional research and insights.
Since our founding in 2014, ARK Invest has had one focus: Disruptive Innovation. We define disruptive innovation as the introduction of a technologically enabled new product or service that is going to change the way the world works and make it a better place. Seeking to educate investors and innovation enthusiasts, ARK decided to publish “Big Ideas” in 2017. This annual presentation showcases a selection of innovations that we believe will accelerate the pace of change. The research presented aims to illustrate how these ideas are transforming the way the world works and delivering outsized growth opportunities across different industries.
Big Ideas 2018 highlights our research on Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), Robotics, Deep Learning, CRISPR Genome-Editing, Cryptoassets, Frictionless Value Transfers, and 3D Printing.
We invite you to download Big Ideas 2018 and share your thoughts with us!
Artificial Intelligence In Automotive Industry: Surprisingly Slow Uptake And ...Bernard Marr
Artificial intelligence has been a hot topic in the automotive industry for years, and we have seen rapid advances in things like autonomous driving. It, therefore, comes as a bit of a surprise that new research shows a slower than expected AI adoption rate. Let’s look at why.
BootstrapLabs - Tracxn Report - artificial intelligence for the Applied Arti...BootstrapLabs
This report covers companies that provide the infrastructure for creating Artificial Intelligence. These Infrastructure companies include those working on Machine Learning, Deep Learning based platforms, libraries. Some of theses companies also provide platforms for Natural Language Processing and Visual Recognition. In the Applications section, the report covers companies leveraging AI techniques to build applications tailored for end use in Enterprise, Industry & Consumer sectors.
Over $1B has been invested in AI-Infrastructure startups since 2010 with ¬$340M being invested in 2015. Over $7.5B has been invested in AI-Applications startups since 2010 with $2.3B being invested in 2015.
ARK expects that before 2020 fully autonomous vehicles will become commercially available, enabling the rise and rapid growth of autonomous taxi networks. These networks should decrease the cost and inconvenience of point-to-point mobility dramatically, spurring a transformative boost in economic productivity. As a result, the traditional automotive industry may be subsumed by mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) platforms that could become one of the most valuable investment opportunities in public equity markets. Take a look at our Slideshare and discover more about the history, technology, and opportunities surrounding self-driving cars.
2019 London Data Science Festival. Making Money in AI, Machine Learning and ...Simon Greenman
Who’s Going to Make Money in AI and Machine Learning? We’re currently experiencing an AI gold rush. Billions are being invested. AI startups abound. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are duking it out for AI supremacy. Corporations are scrambling to ensure they adopt AI ahead of their competitors while looking over their should at startups. The winners will be the picks and shovels of this gold rush. They are the tech giants that have the scale of data, talent, capital and distribution to power the AI revolution. But enterprises stand to create nearly $4 trillion in value from AI by 2022. But to get AI and data science projects out of experimentation and into use across the organisation requires mobilising and engaging the executive team. AI startups that are looking to scale also need to cross the commercial divide from technology to the enterprise.
This PPT is about AI 100 Startups all over the world based on "The AI 100 -CB insights".
In this research paper, you can find each capital, scale, general info(ref: CB Insights), and features.
Women Edition: 5. World Automotive ConferenceErsin KARA
worldautomotiveconference.co.uk
Existence of women in an industry is the thing that makes the organization holistic and the work flawless. Recent studies on gender diversity say that there is a positive correlation between the presence of women in corporate leadership and performance in a magnitude that is not small. Companies, that understand that it is not a positive discrimination but an indispensable necessity to achieve diversity, and reserve seats for women from top to bottom positions, are the ones which climb the ladder in competition more quickly.
Although women hold only 30% of the entry-level roles in technology related positions, it is getting better by the day. As for the automotive industry, women participation in European Union in manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers is less than 25% while they are only about one fourth in
US automotive industry despite the astonishing fact that nearly two thirds (65%) of new car buyers are women. Rates are almost the same in white-collar segment of Turkish automotive industry as well.
To welcome and thank for their existence in the World Automotive Conference 2018, we dedicate this month’s WAC Bulletin to existing and future women participants of the industry.
To understand how women see and manage the industry’s transformation, how they adapt to the changing world, and face challenges during the transition, we conducted interviews with some of the ladies who will participate in WAC 2018 conference as speakers. Their perspective also showed us that enormous change has only began and it has way to go within a fiercely competitive environment.
Hope you enjoy each of these valuable thoughts and insights,
Not all of the speakers were able to participate in the Bulletin and we will share their views in the upcoming issues.
The inaugural World Automotive Conference 2018 proudly hosts global leaders of industry from all over the world in October while we invite ladies to Women’ Breakfast to be held in October 5th at 8:00 a.m. Though we want to enjoy the conference with as much ladies as possible, we have limited number of seats available for the breakfast, hence it will be first 50 ladies that register to WAC will be able to gain a seat.
"The concept of autonomous driving cars are largely dependent on Internet of Things. This is due to the reason that this technology could be enabled only with the help of IoT. We can say that IoT will increase the connectivity between vehicles and together with AI solutions will further enhance the choices for buyers with providing all information regarding their preferences while buying and using the vehicle. I see these advantages below -With the help of IoT, vehicles will get more connected to the other stakeholders in the transportation and so more usage- based services will be provided. We see first products in insurance sector or aftersales business"
Digital economy and law keynote by Jude UmehJude Umeh
Setting the Scene Keynote address at the Digital Economy and Law Conference, organised by ACEPI (the Portuguese marketing association), in Lisbon, November 2013
Artificial Intelligence is trendy. Every event, every strategy meeting and every consulting firm talks about it. This whitepaper aims to separate actual facts and important background information from the overarching marketing buzz.
You will get a short but information-rich wrap up about: What causes the current hype? Where are we today? What are the innovation leaders doing with AI? And what are immediate action points to focus on by applying artificial intelligence to your business?
AI & India : The potential to be the next global centre of innovationUmakant Soni
The combination of a large and rapidly growing mobile-internet connected population along with startups being able to access their data along with open-source intelligence research means they can leverage decades of research, apply it to data, and pipe the results to build context-aware, predictive and extremely personalised business models.
This can be built on intelligent process automation and forecasting frameworks for speed and precision. Overall, these businesses will have potential for step-changes in operational efficiency and effectiveness in understanding and fulfilling customer needs.
This is especially so in India, where small screens on many smartphones can create vast pools of data to power AI. By further automating business decisions through machine learning, and surfacing them through smart, intelligent interfaces, these startups will disrupt older technologies and traditional businesses – based on heuristical approaches – and can emerge as “new category leaders”.
AI in Business - Key drivers and future valueAPPANION
Artificial Intelligence is undoubtedly a hyped topic at the moment. But what is the reasoning for investors and digital platform players to bet very large amounts of money on this technology right now? To better understand the current market dynamics and to give an overview of renown predictions for the upcoming 2-3 years, we compiled a practical overview of this topic. This report covers the major driving forces of AI, assumptions for the future from the industry thought leaders as well as practical advice on how to start AI projects within your company.
Top 10 Technology Predictions - Future Outlook for AI and DLTAPPANION
Artificial Intelligence and Distributed Ledger Technology are the current hot topics on the innovation agenda. In our future outlook for 2019 and beyond, we made 10 bold predictions for the upcoming development of these two key technologies.
Innomantra - Patent Portfolio of Electric Cars - Report July 2015Innomantra
Executive Summary'
The purpose of this study is to analyze the importance given by selected major automobile companies in the
electric car segment to innovation, based on their Patent Portfolios. Apart from providing an account of innovation
and technological development taking place in the automobile, specifically to electric car segment, the analysisof the patenting activity provides an insight into the current trends in the intellectual property generation activity.
The study summarizes results of the research that was conducted on Toyota Motor Corporation, Tesla Motor Inc.,
The Ford Motor Company, Nissan Motor Company Ltd and General Motors Company.
This report covers filing trends of the above mentioned companies along with status of Patents, International Patent
Classification and Priority Date. The study also provides the filing trends and status in the field of engineering to
which they belong, along with details of all Patents filed by these companies since 2008.
The electric car industry is still in the nascent stage of growth. The electric car market is majorly concentrated
in US and Japanese market. There is an increasing trend in the formation of Joint Ventures in research of
electric battery technology by the automobile companies. Electronic and electronic components manufacturing
companies like Samsung are filing patents in the electric car segment. This shows that electronic companies
are planning to enter the electric automobile market. Developing low cost batteries, providing long range and
government support are essential for success of mass-market electric vehicle industry.
The major automobile companies have filed patents in electrical machinery and transport segments. This shows
that the investment is majorly done in battery and power train technologies. Though Tesla motors started recently
in 2003, it is competing with top automobile companies like Toyota, Nissan, Ford and General Motors which
were established nearly 100 years ago. Tesla patents are referred by all the major automobile companies and
automobile component manufacturing companies. Tesla motors are followed by General motors which show
that GM considers Tesla a direct competitor for the company in the electric car segment. Tesla motors did not cite
any other patents filed by other automobile companies. This shows that Tesla motors is leading other automobile
companies in technology research. Toyota motors have cited patents of all the other major automobile companies
which shows that Toyota is following technological research of all the other major automobile companies
Innomantra - Patent Portfolio of Electric Cars - 2015 ver 1.0F2Innomantra
The purpose of this study is to analyze the importance given by selected major automobile companies in the electric car segment to innovation, based on their Patent Portfolios. Apart from providing an account of innovation and technological development taking place in the automobile, specifically to electric car segment, the analysis of the patenting activity provides an insight into the current trends in the intellectual property generation activity. The study summarizes results of the research that was conducted on Toyota Motor Corporation, Tesla Motor Inc., The Ford Motor Company, Nissan Motor Company Ltd and General Motors Company.
This report covers filing trends of the above mentioned companies along with status of Patents, International Patent Classification and Priority Date. The study also provides the filing trends and status in the field of engineering to which they belong, along with details of all Patents filed by these companies since 2008.
The electric car industry is still in the nascent stage of growth. The electric car market is majorly concentrated in US and Japanese market. There is an increasing trend in the formation of Joint Ventures in research of electric battery technology by the automobile companies. Electronic and electronic components manufacturing companies like Samsung are filing patents in the electric car segment. This shows that electronic companies are planning to enter the electric automobile market. Developing low cost batteries, providing long range and government support are essential for success of mass-market electric vehicle industry.
The major automobile companies have filed patents in electrical machinery and transport segments. This shows that the investment is majorly done in battery and power train technologies. Though Tesla motors started recently in 2003, it is competing with top automobile companies like Toyota, Nissan, Ford and General Motors which were established nearly 100 years ago. Tesla patents are referred by all the major automobile companies and automobile component manufacturing companies. Tesla motors are followed by General motors which show that GM considers Tesla a direct competitor for the company in the electric car segment. Tesla motors did not cite any other patents filed by other automobile companies. This shows that Tesla motors is leading other automobile companies in technology research. Toyota motors have cited patents of all the other major automobile companies which shows that Toyota is following technological research of all the other major automobile companies.
Software Development: The Top 10 Trends Of 2020 and BeyondTechGuru17
Tough or not, to see what lies ahead in the software development environment, we look deep into the new year. It is time for organizations to catch a glimpse of the vision for where software R&D practitioners are bringing technology with 2019 on the books and 2020 kicking off. Here are ten developments in software development that we expect will take over the industry in 2020. Stick until the end and know more about the big Software development trends of 2020 and beyond.
Future Watch: China's Digital Landscape and Rising Disruptors - Module 2.6 Ar...Team Finland Future Watch
AI is transforming industries in China just as we expect it to revolutionize our industries and organizations. As witnessed in many existing practical AI applications already available today, AI is not a futuristic concept anymore. The question today is, who will lead the next AI revolution? In many terms China can be the driving force of this development.
In 2022, we expect AI innovations will bring promising developments and impressive breakthroughs that will be hailed as future technologies. Here are the top AI trends and predictions to watch out for.
Women Edition: 5. World Automotive ConferenceErsin KARA
worldautomotiveconference.co.uk
Existence of women in an industry is the thing that makes the organization holistic and the work flawless. Recent studies on gender diversity say that there is a positive correlation between the presence of women in corporate leadership and performance in a magnitude that is not small. Companies, that understand that it is not a positive discrimination but an indispensable necessity to achieve diversity, and reserve seats for women from top to bottom positions, are the ones which climb the ladder in competition more quickly.
Although women hold only 30% of the entry-level roles in technology related positions, it is getting better by the day. As for the automotive industry, women participation in European Union in manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers is less than 25% while they are only about one fourth in
US automotive industry despite the astonishing fact that nearly two thirds (65%) of new car buyers are women. Rates are almost the same in white-collar segment of Turkish automotive industry as well.
To welcome and thank for their existence in the World Automotive Conference 2018, we dedicate this month’s WAC Bulletin to existing and future women participants of the industry.
To understand how women see and manage the industry’s transformation, how they adapt to the changing world, and face challenges during the transition, we conducted interviews with some of the ladies who will participate in WAC 2018 conference as speakers. Their perspective also showed us that enormous change has only began and it has way to go within a fiercely competitive environment.
Hope you enjoy each of these valuable thoughts and insights,
Not all of the speakers were able to participate in the Bulletin and we will share their views in the upcoming issues.
The inaugural World Automotive Conference 2018 proudly hosts global leaders of industry from all over the world in October while we invite ladies to Women’ Breakfast to be held in October 5th at 8:00 a.m. Though we want to enjoy the conference with as much ladies as possible, we have limited number of seats available for the breakfast, hence it will be first 50 ladies that register to WAC will be able to gain a seat.
"The concept of autonomous driving cars are largely dependent on Internet of Things. This is due to the reason that this technology could be enabled only with the help of IoT. We can say that IoT will increase the connectivity between vehicles and together with AI solutions will further enhance the choices for buyers with providing all information regarding their preferences while buying and using the vehicle. I see these advantages below -With the help of IoT, vehicles will get more connected to the other stakeholders in the transportation and so more usage- based services will be provided. We see first products in insurance sector or aftersales business"
Digital economy and law keynote by Jude UmehJude Umeh
Setting the Scene Keynote address at the Digital Economy and Law Conference, organised by ACEPI (the Portuguese marketing association), in Lisbon, November 2013
Artificial Intelligence is trendy. Every event, every strategy meeting and every consulting firm talks about it. This whitepaper aims to separate actual facts and important background information from the overarching marketing buzz.
You will get a short but information-rich wrap up about: What causes the current hype? Where are we today? What are the innovation leaders doing with AI? And what are immediate action points to focus on by applying artificial intelligence to your business?
AI & India : The potential to be the next global centre of innovationUmakant Soni
The combination of a large and rapidly growing mobile-internet connected population along with startups being able to access their data along with open-source intelligence research means they can leverage decades of research, apply it to data, and pipe the results to build context-aware, predictive and extremely personalised business models.
This can be built on intelligent process automation and forecasting frameworks for speed and precision. Overall, these businesses will have potential for step-changes in operational efficiency and effectiveness in understanding and fulfilling customer needs.
This is especially so in India, where small screens on many smartphones can create vast pools of data to power AI. By further automating business decisions through machine learning, and surfacing them through smart, intelligent interfaces, these startups will disrupt older technologies and traditional businesses – based on heuristical approaches – and can emerge as “new category leaders”.
AI in Business - Key drivers and future valueAPPANION
Artificial Intelligence is undoubtedly a hyped topic at the moment. But what is the reasoning for investors and digital platform players to bet very large amounts of money on this technology right now? To better understand the current market dynamics and to give an overview of renown predictions for the upcoming 2-3 years, we compiled a practical overview of this topic. This report covers the major driving forces of AI, assumptions for the future from the industry thought leaders as well as practical advice on how to start AI projects within your company.
Top 10 Technology Predictions - Future Outlook for AI and DLTAPPANION
Artificial Intelligence and Distributed Ledger Technology are the current hot topics on the innovation agenda. In our future outlook for 2019 and beyond, we made 10 bold predictions for the upcoming development of these two key technologies.
Innomantra - Patent Portfolio of Electric Cars - Report July 2015Innomantra
Executive Summary'
The purpose of this study is to analyze the importance given by selected major automobile companies in the
electric car segment to innovation, based on their Patent Portfolios. Apart from providing an account of innovation
and technological development taking place in the automobile, specifically to electric car segment, the analysisof the patenting activity provides an insight into the current trends in the intellectual property generation activity.
The study summarizes results of the research that was conducted on Toyota Motor Corporation, Tesla Motor Inc.,
The Ford Motor Company, Nissan Motor Company Ltd and General Motors Company.
This report covers filing trends of the above mentioned companies along with status of Patents, International Patent
Classification and Priority Date. The study also provides the filing trends and status in the field of engineering to
which they belong, along with details of all Patents filed by these companies since 2008.
The electric car industry is still in the nascent stage of growth. The electric car market is majorly concentrated
in US and Japanese market. There is an increasing trend in the formation of Joint Ventures in research of
electric battery technology by the automobile companies. Electronic and electronic components manufacturing
companies like Samsung are filing patents in the electric car segment. This shows that electronic companies
are planning to enter the electric automobile market. Developing low cost batteries, providing long range and
government support are essential for success of mass-market electric vehicle industry.
The major automobile companies have filed patents in electrical machinery and transport segments. This shows
that the investment is majorly done in battery and power train technologies. Though Tesla motors started recently
in 2003, it is competing with top automobile companies like Toyota, Nissan, Ford and General Motors which
were established nearly 100 years ago. Tesla patents are referred by all the major automobile companies and
automobile component manufacturing companies. Tesla motors are followed by General motors which show
that GM considers Tesla a direct competitor for the company in the electric car segment. Tesla motors did not cite
any other patents filed by other automobile companies. This shows that Tesla motors is leading other automobile
companies in technology research. Toyota motors have cited patents of all the other major automobile companies
which shows that Toyota is following technological research of all the other major automobile companies
Innomantra - Patent Portfolio of Electric Cars - 2015 ver 1.0F2Innomantra
The purpose of this study is to analyze the importance given by selected major automobile companies in the electric car segment to innovation, based on their Patent Portfolios. Apart from providing an account of innovation and technological development taking place in the automobile, specifically to electric car segment, the analysis of the patenting activity provides an insight into the current trends in the intellectual property generation activity. The study summarizes results of the research that was conducted on Toyota Motor Corporation, Tesla Motor Inc., The Ford Motor Company, Nissan Motor Company Ltd and General Motors Company.
This report covers filing trends of the above mentioned companies along with status of Patents, International Patent Classification and Priority Date. The study also provides the filing trends and status in the field of engineering to which they belong, along with details of all Patents filed by these companies since 2008.
The electric car industry is still in the nascent stage of growth. The electric car market is majorly concentrated in US and Japanese market. There is an increasing trend in the formation of Joint Ventures in research of electric battery technology by the automobile companies. Electronic and electronic components manufacturing companies like Samsung are filing patents in the electric car segment. This shows that electronic companies are planning to enter the electric automobile market. Developing low cost batteries, providing long range and government support are essential for success of mass-market electric vehicle industry.
The major automobile companies have filed patents in electrical machinery and transport segments. This shows that the investment is majorly done in battery and power train technologies. Though Tesla motors started recently in 2003, it is competing with top automobile companies like Toyota, Nissan, Ford and General Motors which were established nearly 100 years ago. Tesla patents are referred by all the major automobile companies and automobile component manufacturing companies. Tesla motors are followed by General motors which show that GM considers Tesla a direct competitor for the company in the electric car segment. Tesla motors did not cite any other patents filed by other automobile companies. This shows that Tesla motors is leading other automobile companies in technology research. Toyota motors have cited patents of all the other major automobile companies which shows that Toyota is following technological research of all the other major automobile companies.
Software Development: The Top 10 Trends Of 2020 and BeyondTechGuru17
Tough or not, to see what lies ahead in the software development environment, we look deep into the new year. It is time for organizations to catch a glimpse of the vision for where software R&D practitioners are bringing technology with 2019 on the books and 2020 kicking off. Here are ten developments in software development that we expect will take over the industry in 2020. Stick until the end and know more about the big Software development trends of 2020 and beyond.
Future Watch: China's Digital Landscape and Rising Disruptors - Module 2.6 Ar...Team Finland Future Watch
AI is transforming industries in China just as we expect it to revolutionize our industries and organizations. As witnessed in many existing practical AI applications already available today, AI is not a futuristic concept anymore. The question today is, who will lead the next AI revolution? In many terms China can be the driving force of this development.
In 2022, we expect AI innovations will bring promising developments and impressive breakthroughs that will be hailed as future technologies. Here are the top AI trends and predictions to watch out for.
The enterprise software industry is being transformed by substantial investor capital, Cloud 2.0, artificial intelligence, data protection, preferred platforms, and a talent shortage, leading stakeholders of all kinds to make big changes, and big choices.
How will the #tech industry change in 2018? My team shares our predictions for how edge computing for the IoT, China’s growing tech sector, the IPO market and more will shape the industry this year:
How will the #tech industry change in 2018? My team shares our predictions for how edge computing, enterprise bots, China’s growing tech sector, a robust IPO market, and more will shape the industry this year. Original post: https://goo.gl/pks6C6
The global content intelligence market generated revenue of US$ 500.4 million in 2020 and is expected to reach US$ 1,896.2 million by 2025 with a CAGR of 30.5% in the forecast period. The content intelligence market report offers a comprehensive market analysis of the different segments and regions that lets readers make crucial business-related decisions with a wealth of information enclosed in this report. The research report offers both qualitative and quantitative information on the global content intelligence market. In qualitative terms, the content intelligence market report provides insights into numerous factors, such as market determinants, value chain analysis, emerging trends, growth opportunity analysis, porters five-force model analysis and macro-economic factors, segment analysis, regional analysis at a granular level. Similarly, in quantitative terms, the report provides historical and forecast market numbers of content intelligence in various segments such as by component, deployment model, enterprise size & industry at global, regional, and country-level. In addition, the report provides a detailed analysis of the market vendors and their product offerings. The report also covers details of the competitive market environment and includes information on the capabilities and competencies of market vendors.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) will create $13 trillion in value by 2030, according to McKinsey. That's a pretty good reason to take a closer look at the AI market and see what's under the hood. And that's exactly what I did in the Enterprise VC: 2019 AI Market Review deck.
How can AI & Automation make your business processes intelligentMindfields Global
Enterprises gain a deeper understanding of their processes as they progress further into their automation journey. Exploring the connection between AI, automation and understanding how these technologies help make your business processes intelligent is a necessary next step.
Generative AI’s potential to accelerate India’s digital transformationEYIndia1
I
ndia, today, is in a powerful position to set
the agenda and realize significant benefits
as the world starts to leverage an explosion
of AI capabilities. While 2023 was a year of rapid
innovation, in the next decade, Generative AI (Gen
AI) will break out from labs and Proofs of Concept
(POCs) and into the open terrain of consumer and
enterprise applications. Millions of Indian citizens
stand to benefit from next-generation scaled AI
applications across industries with the biggest impact
on healthcare, drug discovery, financial services,
education and entertainment.
The New Global AI Arms Race: How Nations Must Compete On Artificial IntelligenceBernard Marr
As governments race to unlock AI’s potential within their countries, who is leading the pack, and who is falling behind? Get the latest research and advice about what it takes to get an advantage in the global AI arms race.
FFCON19: Impact investing in the start-up national, how we turn curses into ...Craig Asano
April 3-Day 1 of the 2019 Fintech & Financing Conference in Toronto at venue partner Gowling WLG Office. Jon Medved, CEO of one of the leading Equity Crowdfunding investment platforms in the world (having successfully raised in excess of $1billion) delivers a a talk on how Israel, the Startup Nation, manages to punch well above its weight and turn curses into Blessing - representing 7% of the world's unicorns and IPO exit and M&A activity reaching a critical mass. Israel now ranks 7th in the world in AI companies.
More info
https://www.ourcrowd.com/
https://fintechandfunding.com/
https://ncfacanada.org/
future_trends_in_software_development_to_watch_in_2024.pdfsarah david
Elevate services with AI and Machine Learning integration, explore Cloud Computing's $1 trillion surge, and adapt to IoT's 65 billion devices. Embrace cross-platform development with Flutter and React Native. Unlock Blockchain's potential beyond cryptocurrency. Ride the IT outsourcing wave, poised to surpass $700 billion. Prioritize ethical AI practices amid government scrutiny. Join the green revolution with sustainable software development. Stay competitive in India's tech surge. Transform your approach—2024 demands it!
Rapidly evolving technology is creating many opportunities for strategic technologies to rise in the market. As the demand for specific skills increases, let's look at the current trends for an IT professional to follow.
future_trends_in_software_development_to_watch_in_2024.pdfsarah david
Elevate services with AI and Machine Learning integration, explore Cloud Computing's $1 trillion surge, and adapt to IoT's 65 billion devices. Embrace cross-platform development with Flutter and React Native. Unlock Blockchain's potential beyond cryptocurrency. Ride the IT outsourcing wave, poised to surpass $700 billion. Prioritize ethical AI practices amid government scrutiny. Join the green revolution with sustainable software development. Stay competitive in India's tech surge. Transform your approach—2024 demands it!
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Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024Albert Hoitingh
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See how to accelerate model training and optimize model performance with active learning
Learn about the latest enhancements to out-of-the-box document processing – with little to no training required
Get an exclusive demo of the new family of UiPath LLMs – GenAI models specialized for processing different types of documents and messages
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2. Heatmap utilization for testing
3. Optimization of testing processes
4. Demo
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Execution from the test manager
Orchestrator execution result
Defect reporting
SAP heatmap example with demo
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ARK Invest Big Ideas 2020
1. February 06, 2020 | For Informational Purposes Only
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
There is no assurance that the Adviser will make any investments with the same or similar characteristics as any investment presented. The reader should not assume that an
investment identified was or will be profitable. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE, FUTURE RETURNS ARE NOT GUARANTEED. www.ark-invest.com
ARK Investment Management LLC
2. 2
BIGIDEAS2020
ARK Invest aims to identify large-scale investment opportunities by focusing on public
companies that are the leaders, enablers, and beneficiaries of disruptive innovation.
While we believe innovation is the key to growth, the opportunities it creates often are
missed or misunderstood by traditional investment managers who are more focused on
sectors, indexes, short-term earnings, or price movements.
ARK seeks to gain a deeper understanding of the convergence, market potential, and
long-term impact of disruptive innovation by researching a global universe that spans
sectors, industries, and markets. Today, we seem to be witnessing an acceleration in new
technological breakthroughs.
To enlighten investors on the impact of these breakthroughs and the opportunities
they will create, we began publishing Big Ideas in 2017. This annual research report
highlights the latest developments in innovation and offers some of our most
provocative research conclusions for the coming year.
We hope you enjoy our “Big Ideas” for 2020.
Introduction to ARK’s Big Ideas
3. 3
BIGIDEAS2020
1. Deep Learning — From Vision to Language
2. Streaming Media — The Primary Technology Behind Content Distribution
3. Electric Vehicles — Faster Adoption Than Most Think
4. Automation — Increased Productivity and More Jobs
5. 3D Printing — An Underestimated Technology
6. Autonomous Ridehailing — The Future of Transportation
7. Aerial Drones — A Cost Saver and Potential Life Saver
8. Next Generation DNA Sequencing — The Transformation of Oncology
9. Biotech R&D Efficiency — The Convergence of Technologies in Healthcare
10. Digital Wallets — The Transformation of Banking
11. Bitcoin — An Evolution of Monetary Systems
ARK’s Big Ideas 2020
4. 4
BIGIDEAS2020
Disclosure
Risks of Investing in Innovation
4
BIGIDEAS2020
Please note, companies that ARK believes are capitalizing on disruptive innovation and developing technologies to displace
older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so. ARK aims to educate investors and seeks to size the potential
investment opportunity, noting that risks and uncertainties may impact our projections and research models. Investors should
use the content presented for informational purposes only, and be aware of market risk, disruptive innovation risk, regulatory
risk, and risks related to certain innovation areas. Please read risk disclosure carefully.
RISK FACTORS OF INVESTING IN INNOVATION
Disruptive
Innovation
Rapid Pace of Change
Uncertainty and Unknowns
Exposure Across Sectors and Market Cap
Regulatory Hurdles
Competitive Landscape
Political or Legal Pressure
à Aim to understand the regulatory, market, sector,
and company risks. (See Risk and Disclosure at the end)
à Aim for a cross-sector understanding of technology
and combine top down and bottom up research.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
5. BIGIDEAS2020
5
Deep Learning
Deep learning is powering the next generation of
computing platforms. Thanks to deep learning,
artificial intelligence (AI) systems can see, hear,
and understand natural language at near human
level accuracy.
ARK believes that deep learning will be more impactful
than the Internet. The Internet created roughly
$10 trillion in global equity market capitalization
in 20 years. We believe that deep learning will have
3x that impact, adding $30 trillion to global equity
markets over the next two decades.
Author: James Wang, ARK Analyst
6. 6
BIGIDEAS2020
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
Deep Learning Software Teaches Itself
Traditional Software Deep Learning Software
Learning Program
Deep learning is software that is not ‘written’ but is ‘trained’. Humans
create AI models and gather labeled data. The software then learns
the right behaviors, improves with more data, and often exceeds
human performance.
Traditional software is coded by an army of human programmers.
It’s expensive, fragile, and difficult to maintain. Traditional software
cannot perform cognitive tasks such as image and speech
recognition.
7. 7
BIGIDEAS2020
[1] Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Based on company derived statistics.
[2] Kyle Wiggers, “Waymo’s autonomous cars have driven 20 million miles on public roads”, VentureBeat https://arkinv.st/2N5fC4D.
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
Deep Learning Is Powering the Next Generation
of Computing Platforms
In 2019, smart speakers responded to 100
billion commands and questions, a number
that increased 50% in just one year.1
Waymo vehicles have traveled
more than 20 million fully
autonomous miles.2
TikTok uses deep learning for video
recommendations and is growing its
user base 10x faster than is Snapchat.1
Conversational
Computers
Self-Driving Cars Consumer Apps
8. 8
BIGIDEAS2020
[1] Moore’s Law: Gordon Moore’s prediction that the number of transistors on a chip would double every two years.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “Worldwide Server Market Revenue Declined 6.7% Year Over Year in the Third Quarter of 2019,
According to IDC.” IDC, 5 Dec. 2019, https://arkinv.st/2ZSWcFh. Assumes 15% OEM margin.
AI Software Should Create an $18 Billion Market
for AI Hardware
The slowdown in Moore’s Law1 means no more ‘free’ performance upgrades every two years. As a result, the server
industry will have to invest in more computing hardware. AI accelerator chips, which optimize deep learning
workloads, generated $4 billion in revenue last year and should grow 36% at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
to $18 billion in 2024.
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
2019 2024
Billions(USD)
Global Server Revenue by Component
CPU Memory Storage Other AI Accelerator
36% CAGR
9. 9
BIGIDEAS2020
GPU: Graphics Processing Unit; TPU: Tensor Processing Unit | *A “Petaflop-Day” refers to performing a quadrillion operations per second for a day.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Amodei, Dario. “AI and Compute.” OpenAI, OpenAI, 12 Dec. 2019, https://arkinv.st/2ZOH2Rr; “DAWNBench.” Stanford DAWN Deep Learning Benchmark (DAWNBench),
https://arkinv.st/2MUITyO. | This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
Deep Learning Workloads Are Growing at 5x
the Rate of Moore’s Law
Hardware and software improvements reduced the cost to train neural networks by 100x in roughly two years.
As a result, AI capabilities are multiplying as models are trained with 10x more computing power each year.
1.00E-09
1.00E-07
1.00E-05
1.00E-03
1.00E-01
1.00E+01
1.00E+03
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
TrainingComputeTime(Petaflop-Days*)
NETtalk
TD-Gammon v2.1
Deep Belief Nets and
layer-wise pretraining
RNN for Speech
LeNet-5
BiLSTM for Speech
DQN
AlexNet
Neural Machine
Translation
AlphaGoZero
VGG
2x every two years 10x per year
Tesla
Autopilot
ResNets
BERT
Two Eras of Compute Usage in Training AI Systems
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
Mar 17 Sep 17 Apr 18 Oct 18 May 19 Dec 19
CosttoTrainNeuralNetwork(USD)
Cost to Train a Neural Network For Image Recognition
(Using ResNet-50 Database)
Legacy GPUs Nvidia Volta GPUs Google TPUs
10. 10
BIGIDEAS2020
*A “Petaflop-Day” is performing a quadrillion operations per second for a day.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
AI Is Expanding From Vision to Language
ARK believes that 2019 was the year of conversational AI. For the first time, AI systems could understand and
generate language with human-like accuracy. Conversational AI requires 10x the computing resources of
computer vision and should spur large investments in the coming years.
2012
Deployment Year:
Industry Penetration: Most global 2000
companies today
Select tech companies
and startups
Tech giants:
Google, Facebook,
Baidu, Amazon etc.
Elite research
organizations:
DeepMind, OpenAI
2018 - 2020 2020 +
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1,000.0
Pre-AI Computer Vision Language Understanding Reinforcement Learning
ComputeTime(Petaflop-Days*)
Training Time For Different AI Systems
2015
~10x
~10x
11. 11
BIGIDEAS2020
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
Sizing the Opportunity
Deep learning could create more economic value than the Internet. Within two decades the Internet added roughly
$10 trillion to the global equity market cap. Since 2012, deep learning has created $1 trillion in market capitalization.
ARK believes it will add $30 trillion by 2037.
2037
Information Technology Internet Deep Learning
21% CAGR
2019
0.0%
7.5%
15.0%
22.5%
30.0%
1997
ShareofGlobalMarketCap
Market Cap Creation Internet vs. Deep Learning
3% CAGR
$10 T
$1 T
$20 T
$30 T
12. BIGIDEAS2020
12
Streaming Media
Streaming technology is delivering more and more
content over the Internet. Now consumers have instant
access to massive video, audio and game libraries. ARK
believes streaming could become the primary
technology behind content distribution, reshaping
viewing habits.
According to our research, streaming revenue should
more than quadruple during the next five years, from
$86 billion today to $390 billion in 2024.
Author: Nick Grous, ARK Analyst
13. BIGIDEAS2020
13
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
Historically Companies Sold Either Content or Distribution
— Now They Are Vertically Integrating Through Both
1980–2010
Content
Distribution
2010+
Content & Distribution
14. BIGIDEAS2020
14
*Minus Ads: In our cost per hour estimate for cable we excluded the amount of time spent watching advertisements.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Fitzgerald, Toni. “How Many Streaming Video Services Does The Average Person Subscribe To?” Forbes,
Forbes Magazine, 29 Mar. 2019, https://arkinv.st/2ZMohxS; “The Cross Platform Report.” Nielsen, Oct. 2011, https://arkinv.st/39sMoGB; “Cable Operators' Shift to Profit Mode Accelerates Cord-Cutting.” EMarketer,
https://arkinv.st/35lJbFo; Sutton, Kelsey. “Nearly 25% of U.S. Households Will Be Cord-Cutters by 2022, According to EMarketer.” Adweek, Adweek, 6 Aug. 2019, https://arkinv.st/2ZM6hnw.
Subscription Video On Demand (SVOD)
Is Taking Over Linear TV
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue(BillionsUSD)
Linear TV vs. SVOD:
US Market Share
Linear TV Estimated Revenue SVOD Estimated Revenue
$0.57
$0.81
$1.08
$0.17
$0.22
$0.34
$-
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
2014 2019 2024
CostPerHourViewd
Cable TV vs. Netflix Subscription:
US Cost Per Hour Viewed
Cable TV Cost (Minus Ads*) Netflix Cost
SVOD is a relatively inexpensive source of premium content. Per hour watched, Netflix costs consumers nearly
75% less than cable. Thanks to compelling costs, Americans watch 3.4 streaming services on average.
15. BIGIDEAS2020
15
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “Booming Internet Ads Power Faster Global Adspend Growth.” Zenith, 21 Mar. 2019, https://arkinv.st/36juELP.
Linear TV Advertising Is Approaching a Cliff
Ad-supported over-the-top (OTT) streaming channels should gain significant market share during the next few
years. According to ARK’s research, OTT ad revenues could increase more than 7x during the next five years, from
nearly $6 billion in 2019 to roughly $44 billion in 2024.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
GlobalRevenues(BillionsUSD)
Global TV Advertising Market Share
OTT Services Television Advertising
72%
28%
51% CAGR
16. BIGIDEAS2020
16
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “2018 RIAA Music Industry Revenue Statistics: RIAA.” RIAA, https://arkinv.st/39BdB9S.
Music Streaming Services Are Reviving the Industry,
and Reshaping It
Thanks to streaming, the music industry is recovering from more than a decade of declining revenues.
According to ARK’s research, music streaming revenue in the US could grow at an average annual rate of 18%,
from $8 billion in 2019 to $18 billion in 2024.
$-
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$20
$25
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
RevenueAdj.forInflation(BillionsUSD)
US Music Industry Revenue Forecast During the Next Five Years
Physical Digital Streaming
Physical
(8-Track, Vinyl, Cassette, CD)
Streaming
(OTT and Paid)
Digital
(Downloads)
18% CAGR
17. BIGIDEAS2020
17
[1] We consider cloud gaming to be subscription-based services that offer instant access to gaming content libraries.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “Newzoo's Global Games Market Report.” Newzoo, https://arkinv.st/37su2nc.
Cloud Gaming Is Poised For Explosive Growth
Cloud gaming1 is likely to take share from console- and PC-gaming, growing from nearly $263 million in 2019 to
$13.5 billion, or from 0.2% to 6.3% share during the next five years. Among the reasons for this share shift are
instant access to games, dynamic back end support, and compatibility with any device.
45.8%
23.7%
30.4%
0.2%
2019 Estimated Global Game Market Share
Mobile PC Console Cloud
2019
Total $149 B 55.0%
15.4%
23.4%
6.3%
2024 Forecast of Global Game Market Share
Mobile PC Console Cloud
2024
Total $216 B
120% CAGR
18. BIGIDEAS2020
18
[1] We consider live streaming to be web-based platforms that allow users to stream their game-play to a broader audience.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 based on data sourced from twitchtracker.com ; “Livestreaming - A $5 Billion Global Phenomenon.” Roundhill Investments, https://arkinv.st/2FcVUiX.
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
Live Streaming Is Taking Off in New Verticals
Typically in the form of video, live streaming1 is gaining popularity globally, with a particularly strong impact on
Esports. Amazon’s Twitch is the 58th most popular site in the world, streaming more than 11 billion hours in
2019 alone, according to ARK’s estimates.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
NumberofHoursWatched(Billions)
Twitch Viewership
(Number of Hours Watched)
36.5% CAGR
19. BIGIDEAS2020
19
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019 based on data sourced from zenithmedia.com; “Newzoo's Global Games Market Report.”
Newzoo, https://arkinv.st/37su2nc; “2018 RIAA Music Industry Revenue Statistics: RIAA.” RIAA, https://arkinv.st/39BdB9S; “Livestreaming - A $5 Billion Global Phenomenon.” Roundhill Investments,
https://arkinv.st/2FcVUiX.
Sizing the Opportunity
Total streaming revenue could grow 35% at an annual rate, from an estimated $86 billion in 2019 to roughly
$390 billion in 2024.
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2019 2024
Revenue(BillionsUSD)
Video Streaming
SVOD Ad-Supported User Generated
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2019 2024
Revenue(BillionsUSD)
Audio Streaming
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
2019 2024
Revenue(BillionsUSD)
Game Streaming
Live Cloud
Total
36% CAGR
32% CAGR
Total
37% CAGR
20. BIGIDEAS2020
20
Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Author: Sam Korus, ARK Analyst
Four years ago, the Energy Industry Administration (EIA)
and other forecasting agencies estimated that EV sales
would total a few hundred thousand units in the early
2020s. After EV sales hit 1.45 million units in 2018 and
an estimated 2 million in 2019, the same agencies now
forecast roughly 6.5 million in 2024.
ARK’s thesis for the evolution of the market differs
dramatically. Based on Wright’s Law, we forecast EV
sales will be 37 million units, six-times higher than
the forecasting agencies’ consensus estimate for 2024.
21. BIGIDEAS2020
21
EV Sales Are Increasing As Gas-Powered Auto Sales Shrink
Despite an estimated 3.1 million drop in total auto sales worldwide,1 EV sales are expected to grow significantly
during the next five years. EV sales growth could be lumpy as factories build to scale but should be robust over
time as EV adoption gains traction.
[1] Raimonde, Olivia. “Global Car Sales Expected to Slide by 3.1 Million This Year in Steepest Drop since Great Recession.” CNBC, CNBC, 25 Nov. 2019, https://arkinv.st/35bYEYHl.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Based on data sourced from: EV-volumes.com.
.
.5
1.
1.5
2.
2.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (est)
Units(Millions)
Global Electric Vehicle Sales
Year-over-Year Growth: 60% 66% 46% 71% 79% 38%
2 M Units
~2.5% Penetration
80 M Units
20
40
60
80
100
EV Sales Global Auto Sales
Units(Millions)
Auto Sales in 2019
22. BIGIDEAS2020
22
Wright’s Law Forecasts the Decline in Battery Costs
*kWh: Kilowatt hour
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Based on data sourced from: Avicenne Energy, International Energy Agency (IEA), and Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
According to Wright’s Law, for every cumulative doubling of units produced, battery cell costs will fall by 18%.
These cost declines are critical to reaching price parity with gas-powered vehicles, as the largest cost component
of an EV is its battery.
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 10,000,000,000
$/kWh*
Cumulative kWh Produced
ARK’s Lithium-Ion Battery Cost Decline Model
Modeled Cost Decline Forecast Cost Decline Reported PricesCost
23. BIGIDEAS2020
23
Wright’s Law Has Forecast Auto Costs Accurately
For More Than 100 Years
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
1903
1909
1912
1916
1927
1977
1996
2003
2012
2018
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000
AutoUnitCost$/hp(USD)
Cumulative Production
Wright's Law Applied to Auto Costs Over the History of the Industry
(Adjusted for Inflation)
Ford Cost ($/hp) Power (Modeled Ford Cost ($/hp))Wright's Law Model ($/hp)
Model A
Model T Ford Fusion
24. BIGIDEAS2020
24
EVs Are Nearing Price Parity With Gas-Powered Cars
*MSRP: Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
$44,000
$33,000
$24,000
$17,000
$24,000 $24,000 $25,000 $25,000
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
2018 2020 2022 2024
(USD)
Electric Vehicle Price Parity
250 Mile Range EV Price Toyota Camry MSRP*
Cross-Over:
EVs cost less!
25. BIGIDEAS2020
25
The EIA Has Revised Up Its EV Forecasts Consistently
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis.” EIA, https://arkinv.st/2F5SY7R.
The Energy Industry Administration (EIA) has increased its US forecasts for EV sales significantly but consistently
tapers growth beyond 2025, ignoring traditional adoption curves.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
UnitSales(Thousands)
EIA Forecast of US Electric Vehicle Sales
vs. ARK Forecast
ARK Forecast
EIA Forecast
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
UnitSales(Thousands)
EIA Forecast of US Electric Vehicle Sales
(2015-2019)
Actual
2019
Forecasted in:
26. BIGIDEAS2020
26
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Based on data sourced from: EV-volumes.com.
Sizing the Opportunity
The biggest risk to ARK’s forecast is whether or not traditional automakers will be able to scale EV production.
If they do, then global EV sales could hit 37 million units in 2024.
37 M Units
($1.1 T Revenue)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (est) 2024 Forecast
Units(Millions)
Global Electric Vehicle Sales Forecast
79% CAGR
2 M Units
Year-over-Year Growth: 60% 66% 46% 71% 79% 38%
27. BIGIDEAS2020
27
Automation
Automation encompasses industrial robots, service
robots, and automation systems. While many observers
fear that automation will destroy jobs, ARK believes it
will empower humans, increasing both productivity
and wage growth.
According to ARK’s research, automation will add
$800 billion to US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by
2024, and potentially $12 trillion by 2035.
Author: Sam Korus, ARK Analyst
28. BIGIDEAS2020
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Automation Encompasses Industrial Robots,
Service Robots, and Automation Systems
Powered by Neural Networks
Industrial Robots Service Robots Automation Systems
Manufacturing Logistics, Vacuums, Delivery
Robots, Nurse Assistants
Restaurants, Production Lines
29. BIGIDEAS2020
29
Industrial Robot Prices Are Declining
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019, “World Robotics.” IFR International Federation of Robotics, https://arkinv.st/36dFXVJ; Boston Consulting Group
(BCG) “How Robots Will Redefine Competitiveness.” 23 Sept. 2015, https://arkinv.st/2SDew3B.
1995 1996
2005
2010
2014
2018
$2,000
$20,000
$200,000
500,000 5,000,000
UnitPrice(2018USD)
Cumulative Production (Units)
ARK’s Industrial Robot Price Decline Model
BCG Price Decline ARK Price Decline Historic Prices
$139,000
$72,000
$33,000
$25,000
$13,000
2024
Based on Wright's Law, ARK estimates a more rapid cost decline in industrial robot prices during the next five
years compared to a forecast by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
30. BIGIDEAS2020
30
Robot Demand Has Responded to Lower Prices
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “World Robotics.” IFR International Federation of Robotics, https://arkinv.st/36dFXVJ.
While they flattened in 2019 in response to the US-China trade conflict and a slowdown in the global
auto industry, ARK expects robot sales to quadruple during the next five years, from roughly 420,000 in 2018
to 1.6 million in 2024.
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000
UnitSalesofIndustrialRobots
Unit Price of an Industrial Robot
Industrial Robot Price Elasticity of Demand
1996-2002 2002-2010 2009 2010-2015 2016-2018
420,000
1,600,000
.
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2018 2024
Units(Millions)
ARK Industrial Robot Forecast
25% CAGR
31. BIGIDEAS2020
31
Service Robots Are Penetrating the Logistics Space
Source (Left Chart): ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Amazon SEC Filings, Amazon, https://arkinv.st/2ZCRyuT.
Source (Right Chart): ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Bridges, Dash. “I Made $10,378 in 1 Year Working for DoorDash Part Time.” The Rideshare Guy Blog and Podcast, 22 Aug. 2019, https://arkinv.st/37osrPo.
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
Since deploying its first robot in 2012, Amazon has ramped them to roughly 200,000 units in its fulfillment centers
while increasing total employment 7x. Based on their superior economics, robots are likely to dominate the food
delivery space as well.
200 K
650 K
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
#ofRobotsandEmployees
Number of Robots in Amazon's Fulfillment Centers
Compared to Total Employment at Amazon
Robots Employees $1.60
$0.06
$-
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
Human Delivery Autonomous Delivery
Robot
USD/Mile
Cost of Delivery
95%+
cost savings
32. BIGIDEAS2020
32
Robots Will Cause a Shift From “Unpaid” to “Paid” Labor
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “Food Expenditure Series.” USDA ERS - Food Expenditure Series, https://arkinv.st/2sptBve.
Automation systems can operate much of a fast-casual restaurant. Grocery shopping, food preparation,
and clean-up will shift from “unpaid” tasks at home to paid jobs at fast-casual and other restaurants as well
as their suppliers.
Food Cost
≈ $12
Food Prep and
Cleanup Cost
Grocery Time Cost
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
Home Cooked Fast Casual
USD
Cost of a Meal by Location
≈ $12
$781 B
Food at Home
$1.4 T
Food Prep
and Cleanup
$226 B Grocery Time
$0
$1
$2
$3
2018 Addressable Market
Trillions(USD)
Costs of Food to US Consumers
Total = $2.4 T
$930 B
Non-market activity labor cost
(67% of addressable market)
Food Outside the Home Food Inside the Home
33. BIGIDEAS2020
33
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, https://arkinv.st/2rFJJYW.
Sizing the Opportunity
Automation could add $800 billion to US GDP during the next five years and $12 trillion
during the next 15 years. By 2035, GDP could hit $40 trillion, nearly 40% higher than would be the case without
automation, compounding at a 2.4% growth rate instead of 1.8%.
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Trillions(USD)
US GDP With and Without Automation
GDP with Automation GDP Without Automation
1.8%
2.4%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
GDP Growth Without
Automation
GDP Growth With
Automation
CompoundAnnualGrowthRate
US Real GDP Growth (CAGR)
2019 - 2024
34. BIGIDEAS2020
34
3D Printing
3D printing is a form of additive manufacturing that builds
objects layer-by-layer, as opposed to traditional subtractive
manufacturing that removes material from larger blocks.
3D printing collapses the time between design and
production, shifts power to designers, and creates
products with radically new architectures and less waste,
at a fraction of the cost of traditional manufacturing.
ARK believes 3D printing will revolutionize manufacturing,
growing from $10 billion in 2018 to $97 billion in 2024 at an
average annual rate of 65%.
Author: Tasha Keeney, ARK Analyst
35. BIGIDEAS2020
35
[1] ARK used Google Search Trends to illustrate the decline in investor interest for 3D printing stocks. While this analysis is limited, it mirrors the general investor sentiment for 3D printing stocks and their price decline.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Data sourced from https://trends.google.com/.
Investors Seem to Be Underestimating 3D Printing
3D printing companies have not recovered from the consumer-3D printing hype of 2013-2014. As they have
entered the so called “valley of despair,” 3D printing stocks have suffered from a lack of interest, creating a
mismatch between the valuation of public and private companies in the space.
0
25
50
75
100
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
GoogleSearchTrendsInterestOverTime
Google Trends "3D Printing Stocks”1
(Category: Finance, Worldwide)
36. BIGIDEAS2020
36
[1] Kellner, Tomas. “How 3D Printing Will Change Manufacturing.” GE Reports, 16 Feb. 2018, https://arkinv.st/2MQQNcJ.
[2] Donaldson, Brent. “Mission Critical: An Additive Manufacturing Breakthrough in Commercial Aviation.” Additive Manufacturing, 20 May 2019, https://arkinv.st/2ZIqYAP.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019. Data sourced from Bloomberg.
The Adoption of 3D Printing Is at a Tipping Point
In 2015, General Electric (GE) produced the first 3D printed fuel nozzle, combining 20 parts into one.1 In 2019,
the GE9X engine contained 304 3D printed parts.2 At that rate of adoption, and adjusting for the reduction in
complexity, a large percentage of the GE9X engine could be 3D printed by the late 2020s.
19
304
4,000
2015 2019 2024
3D Printed Parts in One Aircraft Engine*
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
3D Printing Reduces The Number of Parts
Required For An Aircraft Engine
Total Part Count
*Note: There are 19 fuel nozzles per engine
37. BIGIDEAS2020
37
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “Relativity Space.” Relativity Space, https://arkinv.st/2FyXfAO.
3D Printing Enables Leaps In Manufacturing
TERRAN 1 ROCKET BUILT AND FLOWN
IN DAYS INSTEAD OF YEARS
Disrupts 60 years of aerospace by incorporating
the world’s largest metal 3D printers and AI-driven
controls to build rockets in less than one year.
3D Printed Rocket Manufacturing
< 1,000 Parts
2 Months Build Time
6 Months Iteration Time
Computer Generated Design
Simplified Supply Chain
AI Continuously Improves
Manufacturing Process
Traditional Manufacturing
100,000+ Parts
24 Months Build Time
48 Months Iteration Time
Human Designed Parts
Complex Supply Chain
Static Manufacturing Process
Advancements in Aerospace Through Disruptive Technologies — Case Study: Terran 1 Rocket
Companies like Relativity Space use 3D printing, robotics, and AI to optimize production, improve quality,
reduce manufacturing time, lower costs, and create designs previously not possible.
38. BIGIDEAS2020
38
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; McKinsey; Stratasys; “3D Printing History.” AV Plastics, 14 June 2018, https://arkinv.st/2TC57H1.
ARK Believes 3D Printing Still Is in Its Infancy
ARK’s research shows that 3D printing for end-use parts is the next frontier.
$12.5 Billion $30 Billion $490 BillionMarket Potential:
Current Penetration 40-50% 6% 1%
PROTOTYPES MOLDS & TOOLS END-USE PARTS
First Applications 1980’s 1990’s Early 2000’s
MarketSize(BillionsUSD)
39. BIGIDEAS2020
39
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
Sizing the Opportunity
The global 3D printing market could scale to $97 billion by 2024, compounding at a 65% annual rate.
2018 Credit
Suisse
Morgan
Stanley
AT Kearney Lux Research Deloite Ernst
& Young
Wohlers ARK McKinsey
Billions(USD)
Estimates: Global 3D Printing Market 2020 to 2025
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
.
$500
.
.
2015 2017 20132014 2016 2019 2019 2019Forecast Last Updated: 2013
$12B
by 2025$10B
$13-21B
by 2020
$17B
by 2020
$20B
by 2025
$21B
by 2020
$27B
by 2023
$36B
by 2024
$97B
by 2024
$180-490B
by 2025
65% CAGR
40. BIGIDEAS2020
40
Autonomous Ridehailing
Author: Tasha Keeney, ARK Analysts
Robots that can move people and parcels from place to
place should reduce the cost of point-to-point travel to
1/10th the cost of a taxi today. In urban areas, ARK believes
autonomous ridehailing will become the norm and personal
car ownership the exception, enabling new business models.
While autonomous ridehailing should debut a year
later than promised, ARK’s research suggests that the
10-year net present value (NPV) of its cashflows is more
than $1 trillion today and should hit $5 trillion by 2024
and $9 trillion by 2029.
41. BIGIDEAS2020
41
Autonomous Ridehailing Is Likely to Be Affordable
Adjusted for inflation, the cost to own and operate a personal car has not changed since the Model T rolled off
the first assembly line. ARK estimates that, at scale, autonomous taxis will cost consumers $0.25 per mile,
spurring widespread adoption.
Note: ARK had estimated previously that an autonomous taxi could price at $0.35 per mile. We have refined our estimates and believe that autonomous taxis could be even cheaper, at only $0.25 per mile.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Morton Salt Company Records, American Automobile Association (AAA).
$1.70
$0.70 $0.70 $0.70
$0.25
1871 1934 1950 2016 2021
Cost Per Mile of a Personally Owned Vehicle
(2019 Dollars)
2024
42. BIGIDEAS2020
42
Autonomous Platforms Could Command
Platform Fees Exceeding 30%
*Amazon From Third Party Sellers
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
Although ridehailing companies take 20-30% of revenues today, autonomous technology providers could collect
higher fees as they provide more value to consumers through cheaper, safer, and more convenient services.
Moreover, autonomous platforms should evolve in geographic monopolies, eliminating some of the competitive
pressures that ridehailing companies are experiencing today.
30-65%
30-50% 50% 50%
45%
35%
30% 30%
26% 20-25% 20-25% 25% 23%
23% 14-20%
15%
11%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Kind
le
Roku
G
roup
on
H
uya
Youtube
G
rab
iTunes
App
le
App
Store
Lyft
Booking
Expedia
Rover
StubhubU
ber(Rides)
Airbnb
Am
azon*
U
berEA
Ts
Ebay
Platform Fees
43. BIGIDEAS2020
43
The Winning Autonomous Ridehailing Platforms
Should Be Worth Roughly $1.4 Trillion Today
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
Based on Waymo’s and Cruise Automation’s missed deadlines for driverless commercial service, ARK pushed
out its autonomous adoption curve by one year. If commercialization were to take place one year later than we
had anticipated, future cashflows from autonomous ridehailing should be worth between $1 - $2 trillion today.
$1.4 T
$5 T
$9 T
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2019 (Should Be) 2024 2029
Autonomous Ridehailing Cashflows During the Next 10 Years
(Estimated 10-Year Net Present Value, Cumulative)
2020 Start Date 2019 Start Date
Trillions(USD)
2019 Start Date; Original Forecast
44. BIGIDEAS2020
44
Today’s Ridehailing Companies Are Unlikely to Sustain
Current Valuations In The Autonomous Future
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
Ridehailing company platform fees probably will drop from 20-30% today to 1-5% as they evolve into lead generators.
The majority of fees will go to ridehailing platform providers that own and develop autonomous technology.
$0.24 T $0.18 T $0.1 T $0.3 T $0.5 T
$1.4 T
$5 T
$9 T
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2018
Ridehailing
2019
Ridehailing
2019
Should Be
2024 2030
Trillions(USD)
Ridehailing Valuations Based on Estimated Net Present Value Of
Autonomous Ridehailing Cashflows During Next 10 Years
Ridehailing Autonomous Ridehailing Platforms
Ridehailing
Valuations include:
Uber
Lyft
Grab
Get
Didi
Ola
Cruise Automation
Cabify
Hyundai Aptiv JV
Caocao Zhuanche
Yandex
UCAR
Yidao
Go-Jek
Pony.AI
45. BIGIDEAS2020
45
Sizing the Opportunity
ARK believes that the autonomous ridehailing opportunity should be worth more than $1 trillion dollars today,
$5 trillion by 2024, and $9 trillion by 2029.
$0.2 T
$1 T
$7 T
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
Ridehailing Automakers Energy Sector
Trillions(USD)
Market Capitalization in 2019
$1.4 T
$5 T
$9 T
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
2019
(Should Be)
2024 2029
Trillions(USD)
Estimated Cumulative 10-Year Net Present Value
Of Autonomous Ridehailing Cashflows
Note: ARK’s estimate for market capitalization is using our global adoption curve and revenue estimates, assuming software like margins and cash flow for platform operators, and discounting cash flows from 10 years forward.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
46. BIGIDEAS2020
46
Aerial Drones
Lower battery costs and autonomous technology should
power aerial drones. Soon, ARK believes drones will
deliver our packages, food, and even people quicker and
more conveniently than ever before. Drones should
change shopping behavior and reduce travel times while
potentially saving lives.
ARK believes that drone delivery platforms could
generate roughly $275 billion in delivery revenues,
$49 billion in hardware sales, and $12 billion in
mapping revenue by 2030.
Author: Tasha Keeney and Sam Korus, ARK Analysts
47. BIGIDEAS2020
47
*JFK – John F. Kennedy International Airport | **Note: Prices shown for drone technology are in the future when each technology reaches scale. While ARK estimates drone delivery services will commercialize in the
next 5-10 years, exact dates will be dependent on regulatory approval.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
Autonomous Air Travel Has Become Both
Possible and Affordable
Battery technology is improving, enough so that flight reserves meet regulations, enabling air taxis and air
ambulances to take to the skies safely. In addition, machine learning improvements have enabled
autonomous flight, reducing costs dramatically.
$7.80
$0.25
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
Remotely Piloted Autonomous
Cost of a 10-Mile Drone Delivery**
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
SafeFlightRange(Miles)
Safe Passenger Drone Range
(Inclusive of Flight Reserve For Safety)
Distance from Manhattan to JFK*
In 2020 batteries should
accommodate 12-mile flights
+ reserves for safety
48. BIGIDEAS2020
48
*Ambulance transports patient to hospital and assumes eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) transports only first responder to patient. | Note: Prices shown for drone technology are in the future when each
technology reaches scale. While ARK estimates drone delivery services will commercialize in the next 5-10 years, exact dates will be dependent on regulatory approval.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Bridges, Dash. “I Made $10,378 in 1 Year Working for DoorDash Part Time.” The Rideshare Guy Blog and Podcast, 22 Aug. 2019, https://arkinv.st/37osrPo.
The Cost To Transport People and Things Today Should
Decline Dramatically as Drones Create New Markets
$195
$74
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
Helicopter Air Taxi (at scale)
Price of Transport to Airport
$1,000
$360
$150
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
Ground Ambulance eVTOL Ambulance Autonomous eVTOL
Ambulance (at scale)
Price of Ambulance Trip*
$4.80
$0.20
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
Human Drone (at scale)
Price of a 3-Mile Food Delivery
$140
$0.25
$0
$50
$100
$150
Bike Courier Drone (at scale)
Price of a 30-Minute Parcel Delivery
(10 Miles)
49. BIGIDEAS2020
49
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index Reports Global Parcel Shipping Reaches $279 Billion in Revenue.”
Pitney Bowes, 28 Aug. 2018, https://arkinv.st/2QjSeSQ; “Data and Research on Digital for Business Professionals.” EMarketer, EMarketer, https://arkinv.st/2trGQeE; Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in December
2017, National Bureau of Statistics of China, 25 Jan. 2018, https://arkinv.st/36mBKz6; “Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services by Kind of Business: Retail Sales by Kind of Business, Millions of Dollars, Seasonally
Adjusted.” FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://arkinv.st/2ZJWSN4.
Drone Delivery Should Take a Substantial Share
of Ecommerce Volumes
Drones should make package delivery inexpensive: more purchase decisions made in-store could move
online, pushing global ecommerce from 14% of retail sales in 2019 to 60% in 2030. At $0.25 per delivery,
autonomous parcel drone operators could be targeting a $115 billion market opportunity by 2030.
$15 B
$115 B
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2024 2030
Billions(USD)
Global Parcel Drone Delivery Revenue
14%
29% 27%
6%
33%
86%
65%
40%
2019 2024 2030
Global Share of Retail Sales
(2019 and Forecasted)
Ecommerce (Non-Drone) Ecommerce (Drone Delivered) Other Retail
60%
50. BIGIDEAS2020
50
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “Euromonitor International: Strategic Market Research, Data & Analysis.” Euromonitor International |
Strategic Market Research, Data & Analysis, https://arkinv.st/2udM3HB; “Food Expenditure Series.” USDA ERS - Food Expenditure Series, https://arkinv.st/39AmNLF; “Measurement of Food Away From Home (FAFH) In
Household Surveys.” World Bank Surveys, Nov. 2017, https://arkinv.st/2FaRyZV; Food Data Collection in Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys. The Inter-Agency and Expert Group on Food Security,
Agricultural and Rural Statistics and Endorsed by the Forty-Ninth Session of the United Nations Statistical Commission, 29 Mar. 2018, https://arkinv.st/36mElJm; Fabiosa, Jacinto F., "The Food-Away-from-Home
Consumption Expenditure Pattern in Egypt" (2008). CARD Working Papers. 503. https://arkinv.st/2ZLnBJt.
Drones Could Cause an Inflection in Food Delivery
ARK believes that food is a good candidate for drone delivery, as it is lightweight and time sensitive.
We estimate that revenue from drone food delivery could total roughly $116 billion globally by 2030.
1%
10%
22%2%
19%
2019 2024 2030
Global Food Delivery as a Percent Of Total Food
Spending With and Without Drones
(2019 and Forecasted)
Additional Food Delivery Spend With Drones
Total Food Delivery Spend Without Drones
$7 B
$116 B
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2024 2030
Billions(USD)
Global Food Drone Delivery Revenue
51. BIGIDEAS2020
51
$195
$74
$65
$10 $85min
18min
70min
80min
60min
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Helicopter Air Taxi
(at scale)
Taxi Autonomous Taxi
(at scale)
NYC Subway
Cost and Convenience of Travel Options From Manhattan to JFK*
Cost Time (min)
*JFK – John F. Kennedy International Airport
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
Electric Air Taxis Should Provide Faster and Cheaper
Transport, Especially Above Traffic Bottlenecks
52. BIGIDEAS2020
52
Electric Air Taxis Could Be a Cost-Effective Way
to Save Lives
Each year in the US roughly 350,000 cardiac arrests occur outside of hospitals, with only 12% of the victims
surviving. Drones could save up to 20,000 lives annually by decreasing response times. Based on the present value
of lives saved, if the air ambulance service were to cost an additional $150 per patient, the annual cost would be an
incremental $2.8 billion in the US. The benefit associated with lives saved would be more than six times the cost.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
30-DaySurvivalRate
Ambulance Response Time From 911 Call (min)
Survival Rate by Ambulance Response Time
Bystander CPR No Bystander CPR
Ground
Ambulance
Electric Air
Ambulance
Total Annual
Ambulance
Expenditure,
$20 B
Additional Annualized
Cost to Add Air Taxi
EMTs, $2.8 B
Present
Value of
Lives Saved,
$18.3 B
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
Costs of Ambulance Service Air Taxi EMT Benefit
Billions(USD)
Adding Air Taxi EMTs to Existing Ambulance Fleet:
Estimated Lives-Saved and Cost Benefit
53. BIGIDEAS2020
53
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
Sizing the Opportunity
Drone delivery platforms could generate $275 billion in delivery revenue, $49 billion
in hardware sales, and $12 billion in mapping revenue by 2030.
$700M $6B
$300M
$6B
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
2024 2030
Billions(USD)
Mapping Revenue
Parcel Drones Food Drones
$15B
$115B$7B
$116B
$400M
$44B
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2024 2030
Billions(USD)
Delivery Revenue
Parcel Drone Food Drone Air Taxi
$22B
$275B
$12B
$1B
$5B
$25B$1B
$16B
$66M
$8B
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
2024 2030
Billions(USD)
Drone Hardware Sales
Parcel Drones Food Drones Air Taxis
$49B
$6B
54. BIGIDEAS2020
54
Next Generation DNA Sequencing
Next-generation DNA sequencing (“NGS”) is the driving
force behind the genomic revolution. Since 2003 the
cost to sequence a human genome has dropped from
nearly $3 billion to less than $1,000.
ARK believes that as costs continue to drop, NGS will
become a standard of care in oncology. It will introduce
more science into healthcare decision-making, enable
personalized medicine, and accelerate drug discovery.
ARK estimates that NGS revenues will grow 43%
at an annual rate, from $3.5 billion last year to
$21 billion in 2024.
Author: Simon Barnett, ARK Analyst
55. BIGIDEAS2020
55
The Cost of DNA Sequencing Is Declining Precipitously
ARK believes that NGS costs are declining at a rapid rate, following Wright’s Law: for every cumulative doubling
in units produced, costs decline 40%. If NGS had followed Moore’s Law since 2009, the cost to sequence a whole
human genome today would be $100,000—more than two orders of magnitude higher than the $1,000 that
Wright’s Law predicted.
*Human genome data equivalents equate to 96 gigabases of sequence data.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “The Cost of Sequencing a Human Genome.” Genome.gov, https://arkinv.st/2SImMzm.
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
$1,000,000
$10,000,000
$100,000,000
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000
CosttoSequenceaHumanGenome*
(USD)
Cumulative Human Genomes Sequenced
Cost Decline Comparison: Moore's Law vs. Wright's Law
Sequencing Cost Veritas Genetics ($599) Moore's Law Wright's Law
2001
2009
2019 Early 2020’s
56. BIGIDEAS2020
56
As Costs Decline, Demand for Sequencing Is Surging
ARK believes that the number of whole human genomes sequenced per year should scale 110% at an annual
rate, from roughly 2.6 million in 2019 to 105 million in 2024, thanks to the clinical adoption of molecular
diagnostics. Among these sequencing-intensive tests are: liquid biopsies, solid tumor profiling, germline testing,
immune-oncology, and non-invasive prenatal screening.
[1] Illumina combined its technology with Solexa's to commercialize the first wave of NGS instruments.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “The Cost of Sequencing a Human Genome.” Genome.gov, https://arkinv.st/2SImMzm.
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Sep-17 Jun-20 Mar-23 Dec-25
GenomesSequencedPerYear
Annual Sequencing Volume Is Accelerating as NGS Enters Clinical Practice
Annual Sequencing Volume ARK Estimate (2024)
Illumina (ILMN)
Acquires Solexa (Jan. 07)1
2.6 Million
Genomes in 2019
105 Million
Genomes in 2024
57. BIGIDEAS2020
57
Next Generation Sequencing Should Transform
Clinical Oncology
NGS enables clinicians to gauge an individual’s risk of cancer, treat diagnosed patients, and monitor disease
recurrence more precisely.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
Combined with other electronic
healthcare data, genetic information
could identify cancer in Stage 1.
NGS enables sophisticated tumor
profiling and precision therapies
throughout the course of treatment.
NGS can monitor patients in
remission noninvasively and
frequently to identify recurrences.
Germline Risk Assessment
Patient-Centric Monitoring via
Liquid Biopsy
Less-Invasive Tissue Profiling
Somatic Tissue Testing
Liquid Biopsy for Advanced Disease
Therapy Matching
Recurrence Monitoring via
Liquid Biopsy
Undiagnosed
Patients
Diagnosed
Patients
Patients in
Remission
58. BIGIDEAS2020
58
Liquid Biopsies Add to Oncologists’ Toolkits
Liquid biopsies sequence tumor-derived DNA fragments (ctDNA) circulating in the bloodstream. Oncologists
use this information, matching patients to therapies without the need for invasive tissue biopsies. Clinical trials
are under way to increase the utility of liquid biopsies, not only to screen for cancer but also to monitor patients
in remission for recurrences. As a result, sequencing intensity is increasing.
3 M 4.5 M
12 M
18 M
67 M
104 M
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Bladder Prostate Breast Lung Colorectal TOTAL
HumanGenomeEquivalents*
(Millions)
Recurrence Monitoring Alone Could Magnify
Annual Sequencing Volume by Roughly 40X**
Liquid biopsies are sequencing-intensive,
meaning that samples need to be analyzed
many times for an accurate result.
*Human genome equivalents equate to 96 gigabases of sequence data. | **Full penetration of 104 million human genomes is equal to a 40x increase in annual sequencing intensity as measured in 2019 (2.6 million human genomes).
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “Potential Utility of Liquid Biopsy as a Diagnostic and Prognostic Tool for the Assessment of Solid Tumors: Implications in the Precision Oncology.” Journal of Clinical Medicine, 18
Mar. 2019, https://arkinv.st/359hcZD; Chamie, Karim, et al. “Recurrence of High-Risk Bladder Cancer: a Population-Based Analysis.” Cancer, U.S. National Library of Medicine, 1 Sept. 2013, https://arkinv.st/39w7aVy; “Bladder Cancer.”
Mayo Clinic, Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research, 22 Dec. 2017, https://arkinv.st/2rJ3v5P; “Survivorship Care Plans.” American Cancer Society, https://arkinv.st/36bTzAY.
59. BIGIDEAS2020
59
Sizing the Opportunity
ARK believes that the average price to sequence a
whole human genome will fall to roughly $200 by 2024.1
Based on Wright’s Law, ARK estimates that NGS
revenues could grow at an annual rate of 43%, reaching
$21 billion in 2024.
$3.5 B
$21 B
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
TotalAddressableMarket(USD)
DNA Sequencing Market
2019 2024
43% CAGR
[1] ARK adjusted its previous cost of $100 by 2023. We believe market leaders in this space are not lowering
costs as quickly as they could. In addition, the average selling price is inclusive of labor, hardware amortization,
consumables and other associated costs, as the National Institutes of Healthcare (NIH) recently delineated.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
60. BIGIDEAS2020
60
Biotech R&D Efficiency
Author: Simon Barnett, ARK Analyst
The convergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI),
Next Generation DNA Sequencing (NGS) and CRISPR
gene-editing has the potential to boost the efficiency
of drug development radically. It should shorten
development timelines, reduce failure rates, and
increase returns on R&D in the search for disease cures.
ARK’s research shows that the convergence of AI, NGS,
and CRISPR gene-editing could add trillions to the
market capitalization of the Biotech and Pharmaceutical
industries, while creating a more efficient healthcare system.
61. BIGIDEAS2020
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Three Technological Advances Could Boost the
Efficiency of Drug Development Radically
Cures for chronic conditions
Fewer failures in drug development
Shorter development timelines
NGS AI
CRISPR
CRISPR Gene-Editing
• Edits faster and cheaper, with more capability
• Enables earlier experimentation
• Turns chronic conditions into potential cures
Next Generation Sequencing
• Sequences faster and cheaper, with higher fidelity
• Guides patients toward targeted treatments
• Improves clinical trial selection
Artificial Intelligence
• Accelerates the discovery of drug candidates
• Increases clinical trial participation
• Lowers the cost of sequencing and analysis
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
62. BIGIDEAS2020
62
Next Generation DNA Sequencing (NGS) Is Critical
to Clinical Trial Success Rates
[1] Assumes 10% cost of capital.
*A lower failure rate constitutes an improvement in clinical trial success. Targeted drugs have a mechanism of action that usually is genetic in nature and tailored to a patient.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Falconi, Adam, et al. “Biomarkers and Receptor Targeted Therapies Reduce Clinical Trial Risk in Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer.” Journal of Thoracic Oncology,
Elsevier, 20 Nov. 2015, https://arkinv.st/35AnSA2.
Drug development companies are making clinical trials more efficient by using NGS to find and enroll patients
likely to respond. Half of clinical trials and 80% of oncology trials now collect genetic information. ARK believes
clinical trials using genetic diagnostics will result in fewer failed drugs and will increase capital efficiency.
Failure Rate
Reduction
(%)
Failed Drugs
(#)
Total Cost of R&D1
(Million USD)
0 28 $720
10 18 $520
25 9 $350
45 3 $220
Next generation sequencing diagnostic tests, in combination
with artificial intelligence, should reduce clinical trial failure rates
materially at every stage of the drug development process
72%
69%
38%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
Overall Targeted Drugs* Genetic Diagnostic
Drugs*
FailureRate
Genetic Diagnostics Can Lower Failure Rates
by 45% in Phase III Lung Cancer Trials
The Cost to Produce One FDA-Approved Drug
Given Reduced Failure Rates
63. BIGIDEAS2020
63
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Should Reduce
the Time-to-Market for New Therapies
[1] Academic papers mentioning “machine learning” or “deep learning” and one of the top 5 mortal diseases in the US in the title or abstract
[2] Assumes 10% cost of capital.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “Home - PubMed - NCBI.” National Center for Biotechnology Information, U.S. National Library of Medicine, https://arkinv.st/2ZZk9L4.
AI is being deployed increasingly to address major diseases and to boost efficiency throughout the healthcare
ecosystem. AI should increase clinical trial throughput by improving patient recruitment and retention,
potentially cutting trial times by more than half.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
Publication Volume of Machine Learning and Deep
Learning Papers Focused on Major Diseases1
The combination of AI, DNA sequencing, and gene editing should improve
clinical trial speed and lower cost-of-capital adjusted R&D costs.
Cost To Develop A Single Successful Drug
Time-to-Market Reduction
(%)
Total Cost of R&D2
(Million USD)
0 $720
10 $675
25 $610
45 $535
64. BIGIDEAS2020
64
Curing Disease Comes at a Higher Sticker Price But a
Much Better Bang For the Buck
[1] Life-year: Year of survival while on therapy. | [2] Chronic cancer treatments include treatments approved 2014 to 2019.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Biologics Evaluation and Research. “Approved Cellular and Gene Therapy Products.” U.S. Food and Drug Administration, FDA, https://arkinv.st/37LrKQh; Shahryari,
Alireza, et al. “Development and Clinical Translation of Approved Gene Therapy Products for Genetic Disorders.” Frontiers, Frontiers, 20 Aug. 2019, https://arkinv.st/39MZOxg.
Gene editing promises to transform our ability to create and deliver gene and cell therapies. To date, only 10
therapies have been FDA approved—three of them targeting cancer—but more than 2,000 trials have been
registered. Approved by the FDA in the last two years, the first three gene therapies demonstrated high rates of
complete remission in liquid tumors at a low cost per "life-year”.1
$158
$424
$-
$150
$300
$450
Average Cost of
Cancer Treatment
2014-2019
Average Cost of
ACT Therapies
CostperTreatment
(ThousandsUSD)
Average Cost of Chronic Cancer
Treatment2 vs. Gene Therapies
Chronic Cancer
Treatments
Cancer Gene
Therapies
$134
$100
$-
$150
$300
$450
Average Cost Per
Life Year Gained
2014-2019
Average Cost of ACT
per Life Year Gained
CostperTreatment
(ThousandsUSD)
Average Cost of Cancer Care
Per Life-Year Gained
Chronic Cancer
Treatment
Gene
Therapies
1.6
4.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Chronic Tr eatment s Immunotherapies/ Gene Therapies
IncrementalLife-YearsGained
Average Life-Years Gained by
Treatment Paradigm
Chronic Cancer
Treatments
Cancer Gene
Therapies
+3x
While the list price is 2-3x
higher, Gene Therapies can
be more cost effective
per-life-year gained.
Gene Therapies
likely will be a one-time
administered cure.
65. BIGIDEAS2020
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The Combination of Sequencing, Editing and AI Could
Reverse Decaying Returns on Therapeutic R&D
[1] Returns on Drug R&D = The rate of return, less the risk-free rate, on the R&D dollars spent (inclusive of drug failures) in the years leading up to drug releases and associated present value of earnings in any given year.
[2] Garnier, J-P. 2008. Rebuilding the R&D Engine in Big Pharma. Harvard Business Review May 2008.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Garnier, Jean-Pierre. “Rebuilding the R&D Engine in Big Pharma.” Harvard Business Review, 1 Aug. 2014, https://arkinv.st/37JClLp.
A marginal increase in clinical trial success rates coupled with an increase in trial throughput and the premium
pricing afforded to curative therapies could catalyze returns to R&D not seen since the biotech revolution.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
20242021201620122008200420001996199219881984
Pharma and Biotech: Returns on Drug R&D1 and Potential Trajectories
(5 Year Moving Average)
10% trial phase
failure reduction
25% time to market
reduction
+
2x pricing for curing
chronic conditions
+
The biotech revolution, triggered by the discovery of
recombinant DNA technology and signaled by Genentech’s
1980 IPO, spurred 2 decades of productive R&D spend
Generics, consolidation, and a lack of disruptive
innovation lead to “risk aversion, promises with no
obligation to deliver, and bureaucratic inertia.”2
Potential continued R&D return
decay without disruptive technology
66. BIGIDEAS2020
66
*Assumes no change in price to sales multiple for the biotech sector, market cap expectations based on expected incremental sales generated from associated R&D spend accounting for likely revenue declines from
patent and exclusivity expirations. Based on extensive analysis and reconstruction of historical R&D spend and associated revenue yields. | Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Garnier, Jean-Pierre. “Rebuilding the R&D Engine in Big Pharma.” Harvard Business Review, 1 Aug. 2014, https://arkinv.st/37JClLp.
Sizing the Opportunity
Improvements in R&D efficiency could add $9 trillion to the market capitalization
of therapeutics companies during the next 5 years.
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
Trillions(USD)
Projected Therapeutic Market Capitalization by 2024*
$9 T
Time-to-Market Reduction by 25%
(AI and Other Technology)
Failure rate reduction of 10%
(DNA Sequencing)
Without Disruptive Technology2019
$4 T
$5 T
$3 T
$2 T
22%
Return on R&D
15%
Return on R&D
7%
Return on R&D
$690 $2,500$1,700Revenue (Billions) $460
67. BIGIDEAS2020
67
Digital Wallets
Author: Maximilian Friedrich, George Whitridge, ARK Analysts
According to ARK’s research, digital wallets will be valued
at a premium to retail banks and, thanks to their low cost
of customer acquisition, will offer banking services to low
income earners in a way that traditional banks cannot.
Given ARK’s estimate of 220 million digital wallets
in the US by 2024, if every user were to be valued
according to the lifetime value of traditional bank
customers, the digital wallet opportunity
could be worth more than $800 billion.
68. BIGIDEAS2020
68
In China, Mobile Payments Are 2.5x the Size of GDP
Third-party mobile payment transactions in China grew from 10% of GDP in 2014 to nearly 250% in 2019,
compounding at a 107% annual growth rate. In ARK’s view, global mobile payments will be a multiple of
today’s $87 trillion in global GDP.
$15T
$26T
$34T
$10.4T $11T $11.1T $12.1T $13.6T $14.1T
$0.9T
2014
$1.9T
$9T
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
China’s Mobile Payment Transactions vs. China’s GDP
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; ARK Estimates; "World Economic Outlook Database, October 2019". IMF.org. International Monetary Fund. 15 October 2019; “GDP – China”.
World Bank.org. World Bank. 13 December 2019; “China’s Third-Party Mobile Payment Market Soared 58.4% in 2018”. IResearchChina.com iResarch. 6 May 2019.
69. BIGIDEAS2020
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In the US, Digital Wallet Adoption is Occurring
2x Faster Than Social Media Took Off
*Note: Pewresearch.org did not release data on the social media adoption in the US for the year of 2007
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019. “2018 TSYS U.S. Consumer Payment Study”. TSYS.com TSYS. 18 April 2019; “Social Media Fact Sheet”. Pewresearch.org. Pew Research. 12 June 2019.
42%
65%
37%
57%
12%
22%
2017 2018
Peer-to-Peer Payment Services Adoption in the US:
2017 - 2018
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
1 Year
1 Year
1 Year
With network effects that appear stronger than those of social media, digital wallets are penetrating different
age groups in the US in half the time that it took social media 10 years ago. Children seem to welcome
parents into their payment ecosystems.
41%
67%
30%
55%
12%
22%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Social Media Adoption in the US:
2006 - 2012
18-29 30-49 50-64 65+
2 Years
2 Years
2 Years
2007*
70. BIGIDEAS2020
70
Venmo Hosts the Largest Consumer Finance
Application in the US
*Data Source: Estimate of Annual Active Users for Venmo, Bank of America, Cash App, Citibank, Capital One, US Bank, PNC Bank, TD Bank. Estimate of Quarterly Active Users for JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo.
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019. Company information and ARK estimates. Estimate of Annual Active Users for Venmo, Bank of America, Cash App, Citibank, Capital One, US Bank, PNC Bank, TD Bank.
According to ARK's research and with more than 52 million annual active users, PayPal’s Venmo has become the
largest consumer finance application in the US. Square’s Cash App ranks as number four, behind JP Morgan and
Bank of America.
0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000
TD Bank
PNC Bank
US Bank
Capital One
Citibank
Wells Fargo
Cash App
Bank of America
JP Morgan Chase
Venmo
Top 10 Financial Institutions by Number of Active Digital Users (2019)*
71. BIGIDEAS2020
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Digital Wallets Are Valued at a Discount to Banks
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019. Company Information, ARK Estimates. For Cash App and Venmo using Square’s and PayPal’s price-to-sales multiple applied to estimated Cash App and Venmo revenue and
divided by ARK’s MAU (Monthly Active Users) estimate. For private Fintechs using last valuation divided by ARK’s MAU estimate. | Representative Retail Banks: ARK Estimates based on JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, US Bank, PNC
Bank, Bank of America 2018 Annual Reports. This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
Public markets are valuing digital wallets, such as Square’s Cash App, at a significant discount per user to
private fintech valuations. ARK believes that, at maturity, a digital wallet user should be valued at roughly
$3,650, similar to a retail bank customer.
$3,650 $1,930
$820
$510
$230 $160
$0
$2,000
$4,000
Total Value
per Customer
Checking & Saving Credit Card Mortgage Auto & Other Lending Asset Management
Valuation Per Customer Across Revenue Segments (USD): Representative Retail Banks in the US
$2,850 $2,780 $2,700 $2,560
$2,170
$1,830
$710 $570 $540
$150 $55
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
Monzo N26 Revolut Chime Robinhood SoFi Dave Moneylion Acorns Square
Cash App
Venmo
Valuation Per Active User (USD): Private Fintech Startups vs. Public Digital Wallet Providers
Public Digital Wallet
Providers
72. BIGIDEAS2020
72
Digital Wallets Are Taking Share in the
Consumer Credit Market
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “US ABS Issuance and Outstanding.” Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, 6 Dec. 2019,
https://arkinv.st/2sJ7gJf; “Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.” The Fed - Consumer Credit - G.19, https://arkinv.st/2FrbOqe.
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
Fintech companies like LendingClub and Sofi have captured 39% of the unsecured consumer loan market. According
to ARK’s research, digital wallets will reduce the amount of revolving credit card debt sitting on bank balance sheets
from $740 billion in 2018 to $483 billion by 2028. As a result, interest income on banks’ credit cards is likely to be cut
in half during the next five to ten years.
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028
Billions(USD)
Total Unsecured Consumer Debt in US
Banks' Balance Sheet Credit Card Securitization Digital Wallets Unsecured Fintech Loans Unsecured Loans
73. BIGIDEAS2020
73
Sizing the Opportunity
In the US, digital wallets could be valued at $800 billion by 2024,27x the $29.5 billion today.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
DigitalWalletUsers(Millions)
Digital Wallet Users in the US
Estimated 220 million digital wallet users in
the US by 2024, valued at $3,650 (same as a
traditional bank’s customer lifetime value)
equals a $800 billion opportunity.
27% CAGR
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
74. BIGIDEAS2020
74
Bitcoin
Because of bitcoin, we are witnessing a global battle
among monetary systems, both sovereign and non-
sovereign. As an open, neutral, and permissionless
global monetary system with no reliance on the State,
bitcoin is in a good position to win this battle.
If it does, ARK believes the result will be measured in
trillions, more than an order of magnitude higher than
its $150 billion network value* today.
*As of publication 01/14/2020
Author: Yassine Elmandjra, ARK Analyst
75. BIGIDEAS2020
75
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
We Are Witnessing a “Cambrian Explosion”
of Monetary Systems
A Cambrian
Explosion
An inextricable link
between money
issuance and the
State.
The absence of a
free market in money.
State exploitation
of the physical
limitations of
non-sovereign money
like gold.
Pre-Bitcoin Post-Bitcoin
The introduction of
money as a private
initiative.
The rise of digitally
native non-sovereign
monetary systems.
Viable forms of
self-custody and
sovereign wealth
ownership enabled
by public-key
cryptography.
Before the creation of bitcoin, a non-government backed monetary system seemed neither feasible nor imaginable.
76. BIGIDEAS2020
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Source: Mahmudov, Murad. Assurance Theory of Money - TFTC, 26 June 2018, https://arkinv.st/2FsGwz9.
Today, a Global Battle Among Monetary Systems,
Both Sovereign and Non-sovereign, Is Underway
1. Money will be transferred and stored seamlessly.
2. Money will not be diluted arbitrarily.
3. Money will not be frozen or seized.
4. Money supply will be auditable, and transactions will not be censored.
5. Record of transactions will be secure and immutable.
In the long run, ARK expects that the winning monetary systems will ensure:
As open, neutral, and permissionless global monetary systems with no reliance on the State,
cryptocurrencies appear to be best equipped to win this battle.
77. BIGIDEAS2020
77
Based on data sourced from: “Network Data Charts.” Coin Metrics, https://arkinv.st/37tGseJ.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019
Among Cryptocurrencies,
Bitcoin Is Well Positioned to Satisfy These Assurances
Assurance 1: Money will be transferred and stored seamlessly.
The Bitcoin network has transferred securely
more than $2 trillion of value. The barriers to
transacting on Bitcoin are low, the only
requirement being possession of a private key.
Assurance 2: Money will not be diluted arbitrarily.
All units of bitcoin have been created according
to a mathematically metered, predictable,
and predefined schedule. The supply of bitcoin is
scarce, capped at 21 million units. Approximately
18 million units have been created with the current
issuance growth rate set to halve in May 2020.
$0
$1
$2
$3
2010 2013 2016 2019
Trillions(USD)
Adjusted Cumulative
Bitcoin Transactions Volume
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
Bitcoin(Millions)
Bitcoin’s Monetary Policy
Cumulaltive bitcoin issuance
Supply Cap
Projected bitcoin issuance
78. BIGIDEAS2020
78
*The term “ledger costliness” refers to the amount of compensation miners receive per unit of time.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; Based on data sourced from: “Network Data Charts.” Coin Metrics, https://arkinv.st/37tGseJ; Carter, Nic. Medium, 22 July 2019, https://arkinv.st/36OUw2x.
Among Cryptocurrencies,
Bitcoin Is Well Positioned to Satisfy These Assurances | CONT.
Assurance 3: Money will not be frozen or seized.
Bitcoin combines elliptic curve
cryptography and secure custody to
enable the strongest form of
jurisdiction-agnostic property rights.
Assurance 4: Money supply will be auditable.
Assurance 5: Record of transactions will be secure and immutable.
Bitcoin’s annual miner revenue, or ledger
costliness*, is the highest of any cryptonetwork,
surpassing $5 billion in 2019 and making up
roughly 80% of total miner revenue in 2019, as
shown on the right. Bitcoin recipients can have
high confidence that, once embedded in a few
blocks, a transaction is unlikely to be reversed.
By running a full node, users are free to
validate transactions and audit supply.
Decision-making in Bitcoin is not
subject to a centralized authority:
anyone can make a bitcoin transaction
permissionlessly.
0.0001
0.01
1
100
Jul-10
M
ay-11
M
ar-12
Jan
-13
N
o
v-13
Sep-14
Jul-15
M
ay-16
M
ar-17
Jan
-18
N
o
v-18
Sep-19
Billions(USD)
Annualized Miner Revenue Across Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Ethereum Bitcoin Cash Litecoin
79. BIGIDEAS2020
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Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “Latest Research & Perspectives.” Cambridge Associates, Feb. 2019, https://arkinv.st/359leRH; Fidelity Digital. “Custody in the Age of Digital Assets.” Medium,
Medium, 31 Jan. 2019, https://arkinv.st/36bzk6p; Bakkt. “We Have Liftoff: a Milestone for the Industry.” Medium, Bakkt Blog, 25 Sept. 2019, https://arkinv.st/2tdbmZY;
De, Nikhilesh. “Square Is Hiring New Crypto Engineers - And It Wants to Pay Them in Bitcoin.” CoinDesk, 20 Mar. 2019, https://arkinv.st/36bie8t.
This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities and no warranty or guarantee is provided. Any references to particular securities are for illustrative purposes only.
Bitcoin Is Gaining Credibility In the Financial Community
Market Validation
Portfolio Allocation: Cambridge Associates recommends that institutional investors
begin exploring cryptoassets, citing a likely rise in institutional investor exposure.
Entity
Custody: Institutional appetite has fueled the demand for regulated custodial
services, with institutions like Fidelity seeking to meet that demand.
Price Discovery and Market Infrastructure: Bakkt’s physically delivered futures
contract now serves as a benchmark determined by a trusted price discovery process
upon which institutional investors can rely.
Support for Open Source Development: Square launched the first open source Bitcoin
initiative, potentially a precursor of open source development from other institutions.
80. BIGIDEAS2020
80
Sizing the Opportunity
*Assumes a five-year takeover time, 10% required return, and 9% dilution. Dilution is defined as Bitcoin’s inflation rate over the next 5 years consistent with its predetermined supply schedule.
**M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. M2 is a broader measure of the money supply that M1, which just include cash and checking deposits.
***HNWI (High Net Worth Individual) is defined as a person with investable assets in excess of $1 million USD.
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. | Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2019; “This Time Is Different-Data.” Harvard University, 2009, https://arkinv.st/36de9Rd.
$1.1 Trillion $800 Billion
P (Asset Seizure
over 50 years)
Global Wealth
of HNWI***
$1.3 Trillion
$46 trillion x 5%
P (Bitcoin
replacing Gold)
Gold
Market Cap.
$9 trillion x 15%
Market ShareSum of M2**
Outside of
Top 4 Countries
$40 trillion x 5%
Currency Demonetization:
Bitcoin as a potential medium of
exchange and catalyst for currency
demonetization could evolve
quickly in emerging markets.
Digital Gold:
Bitcoin improves upon gold’s
limitations as a store of value: it is
highly portable, strictly scarce, and
publicly auditable.
Protection Utility:
A sensible allocation to bitcoin as
protection against asset seizure
should approximate the probability
of an asset seizure during an
individual’s lifetime.
Estimated Present Value*