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America’s Electricity
Generation Capacity
2015 Update
NATURAL
GAS
NUCLEAR
HYDRO
OTHERWIND
COALSOLAR
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America’s Electricity
Generation Capacity
2015 Update
Prepared by
Paul Zummo, Manager, Policy Research and Analysis
American Public Power Association
Published April 2015
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Section 1
Current Generation Capacity ....................................... 1
Section 2
Future Generating Capacity: Fuel Mix .......................... 6
Section 3
Future Generating Capacity: Development Stages....... 9
Section 4
Future Generating Capacity: Regional Mix ................. 14
Section 5
Future Generating Capacity: Ownership Type ............ 19
Section 6
Generating Capacity:
Retirements and Cancellations .................................. 21
Section 7
Conclusion ................................................................ 30
Appendix 1
Regions..................................................................... 31
Appendix 2
Regional Fuel Mix ...................................................... 32
Executive
Summary
The American Public Power Association presents the ninth annual report on current
and imminent electricity generation capacity in America by types of fuel, location, and
ownership type.
Currently, America has just over 1.1 million megawatts of generation capacity.
The largest fuel source is natural gas, accounting for nearly 42 percent of all generation
capacity. Coal, with a share of nearly 28 percent of capacity, is the second largest
generation source. Nuclear, hydro, and wind together account for 23 percent of
capacity. Solar currently constitutes less than one percent of all capacity.
This report analyzes prospective generation capacity in four categories — under
construction, permitted, application pending, and proposed.
Nearly 372,000 MW of new generation capacity is under development in the United
States — 92,000 MW under construction or permitted, and just under 280,000 MW
proposed or pending application.
Natural gas will continue to be the top fuel source in the near and distant future,
followed by wind. A growing amount of generating capacity is expected to be fueled
by solar. In fact, solar constitutes just over 10 percent of all capacity for plants under
construction and that have permits to start building.
While the Southeast has the most generation currently, with 25 percent of the nation’s
total capacity, the Western region is slated to add the most generation, projecting more
than 144,000 MW new capacity.
This report also provides information on retirements and planned retirements,
cancellations, and capacity that has been added over the past eight years.
The report approximates what the U.S. capacity mix will look like by the end of 2020.
Natural gas will continue to be the leading resource.
While the overall capacity mix in the United States will change, it will do so at a gradual
pace. Coal and other traditional forms of electric generation are being displaced by
wind, solar, and other forms of renewable generation. Environmental regulations as well
as the speed at which certain resources can be developed might spur more significant
changes. However, the overall fuel mix five years from now will not be dramatically
different from the current mix.
Source: Data analyzed for this report was taken from the Ventyx Velocity Suite database, accessed
January 2015.
Natural Gas
41.88%
Coal
27.81%
Other
6.33%
Nuclear
9.21%
Hydro
8.42%
Wind
5.44%
Solar 0.91%
2015 Generation
Capacity
2020 Potential
Generation Capacity
Natural Gas
43.04%
Coal
24.27%
Nuclear
9.35%
Hydro
8.15%
Other
6.08%
Solar1.66%
Wind
7.45%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 1
Section 1
Current Generation Capacity
TABLE 1.1 shows the sources from which electricity
is currently generated in America. Current nameplate
capacity includes capacity labeled as standby, but not
mothballed or out of service.
TABLE 1.1
2015 Current Electricity Generation
Capacity, by Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type Current Nameplate
Capacity (MW) Share
Natural Gas ....................................489,327.93 ...............41.88%
Coal...............................................324,908.24 ...............27.81%
Nuclear ..........................................107,548.64 .................9.21%
Hydro...............................................98,381.72 .................8.42%
Wind................................................63,588.62 .................5.44%
Distillate Fuel Oil...............................25,030.22 .................2.14%
Residual Fuel Oil...............................18,401.80 .................1.58%
Solar................................................10,595.40 .................0.91%
Wood .................................................4,988.27 .................0.43%
Wood Waste Liquids............................4,790.95 .................0.41%
Geothermal ........................................3,869.45 .................0.33%
Petroleum Coke .................................2,774.20 .................0.24%
Waste ................................................2,697.75 .................0.23%
Landfill Gas ........................................2,561.60 .................0.22%
Kerosene............................................2,185.70 .................0.19%
Other Gas...........................................2,042.80 .................0.17%
Waste Heat.........................................1,131.11 .................0.10%
Blast Furnace Gas..................................929.60 .................0.08%
Jet Fuel Oil............................................537.94 .................0.05%
Purchased Steam...................................419.40 .................0.04%
Agricultural Byproduct............................392.50 .................0.03%
Other ....................................................383.24 .................0.03%
Biomass Gas .........................................354.51 .................0.03%
Biomass Solid........................................220.86 .................0.02%
Biomass Liquid ......................................126.69 .................0.01%
Oil Other................................................119.91 .................0.01%
Biomass Other...........................................5.96 .................0.00%
Multi-fuel...................................................4.00 .................0.00%
Propane ....................................................1.63 .................0.00%
Total 1,168,320.63 100.00%
Natural Gas
41.88%
Coal
27.81%
Other
6.33%
Nuclear
9.21%
Hydro
8.42%
Wind
5.44%
Solar 0.91%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 2
TABLE 1.2 shows how America’s current generation
capacity is distributed through the various regions
defined by the North American Electric Reliability
Corporation.
TABLE 1.2
2015 Current Electricity Generation
Capacity, by Region
Region* Nameplate Capacity (MW) Share
SERC .............................................300,748.59 .................25.7%
RFC................................................248,602.41 .................21.3%
WECC ............................................224,848.06 .................19.2%
ERCOT ...........................................101,404.30 ...................8.7%
NPCC...............................................82,326.60 ...................7.0%
SPP..................................................72,112.04 ...................6.2%
MRO ................................................66,759.84 ...................5.7%
FRCC ...............................................65,696.33 ...................5.6%
HCC...................................................2,923.05 ...................0.3%
ASCC.................................................2,899.41 ...................0.2%
Total 1,168,320.63 100.0%
* Regions Defined by NERC
ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating Council
(not shown on map)
FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council
HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council (not shown on map)
NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council
MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization
RFC: Reliability First Corporation
SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability Council
SPP: Southwest Power Pool
TRE: Texas Reliability Entity
WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating Council
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 3
As seen in TABLE 1.3, over 177,000 MW of current
generation capacity was added between 2008 and
2014. Nearly three-quarters of this new capacity is
fueled by natural gas or wind, with another 12 percent
coming from coal.
TABLE 1.3
Generation Capacity Additions,
2008 – 2014
Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share
Capacity (MW)
Natural Gas ......................................74,874.56..................42.2%
Wind................................................56,641.15..................31.9%
Coal.................................................20,557.70..................11.6%
Solar................................................11,087.53....................6.2%
Hydro.................................................5,962.82....................3.4%
Wood .................................................1,420.47....................0.8%
Landfill Gas ........................................1,136.34....................0.6%
Petroleum Coke ..................................1,048.20....................0.6%
Other Gas...........................................1,020.10....................0.6%
Geothermal............................................787.29....................0.4%
Distillate Fuel Oil....................................753.22....................0.4%
Waste Heat............................................501.29....................0.3%
Wood Waste Liquid ................................478.30....................0.3%
Kerosene...............................................440.00....................0.2%
Blast Furnace Gas..................................171.00....................0.1%
Biomass Gas .........................................165.67....................0.1%
Biomass Solid........................................124.98....................0.1%
Biomass Liquid ......................................124.09....................0.1%
Residual Fuel Oil......................................42.00....................0.0%
Waste ...................................................36.10....................0.0%
Agricultural Byproduct..............................23.02....................0.0%
Other ....................................................10.70....................0.0%
Biomass Other.........................................10.56....................0.0%
Other Oil....................................................9.20....................0.0%
Jet Fuel ....................................................5.20....................0.0%
Propane ....................................................1.63....................0.0%
Purchased Steam.......................................1.00....................0.0%
Total 177,434.11
Natural Gas
42.2%
Coal
11.6%
Other
4.7%
Hydro
3.4%
Wind
31.9%
Solar
6.2%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 4
TABLE 1.4 shows that in 2014 alone, over 17,000 MW
of generation began operating, with natural gas, wind,
and solar accounting for 83 percent of the new capacity.
TABLE 1.4
Generation Capacity Additions,
2014
Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share
Capacity (MW)
Natural Gas ........................................6,651.87..................38.2%
Wind..................................................4,932.94..................28.4%
Solar..................................................2,865.74..................16.5%
Hydro.................................................1,397.00....................8.0%
Other Gas..............................................839.80....................4.8%
Coal......................................................266.20....................1.5%
Wood ....................................................111.50....................0.6%
Landfill Gas .............................................92.61....................0.5%
Geothermal..............................................84.50....................0.5%
Wood Waste Liquids.................................80.60....................0.5%
Distillate Fuel Oil......................................48.05....................0.3%
Biomass Gas ...........................................10.15....................0.1%
Other ......................................................6.50....................0.0%
Waste Heat................................................5.00....................0.0%
Biomass Other...........................................2.80....................0.0%
Biomass Solid............................................1.30....................0.0%
Purchased Steam.......................................1.00....................0.0%
Total 17,397.57 100.0%
Natural Gas
38.2%
Coal
1.5%
Other
7.4%
Hydro
8%
Wind
28.4%
Solar
16.5%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 5
FIGURE 1.1 shows capacity additions between 2008 and 2014, with the fuel mix installed. With the exception of
2012, natural gas has been the leading fuel source added each year, and often by a fairly wide margin. Of note is the
growth in solar capacity added —from 80 MW in 2008 to 2,866 MW in 2014.
FIGURE 1.1
New Generation Installed, 2008-2014
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MWCapacity
New Generation Installed, 2008-2014
Other
Hydro
Solar
Coal
Wind
Natural Gas
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 6
TABLE 2.1
Plants Under Construction, Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share
Natural Gas ......................................18,741.69..................43.0%
Wind................................................14,685.70..................33.7%
Nuclear ..............................................5,737.90..................13.2%
Solar..................................................2,847.65....................6.5%
Hydro....................................................428.68....................1.0%
Coal......................................................320.00....................0.7%
Waste ...................................................278.20....................0.6%
Other .................................................105.00....................0.2%
Wood ......................................................88.56....................0.2%
Biomass Solid..........................................77.50....................0.2%
Wood Waste Liquids.................................62.00....................0.1%
Distillate Fuel Oil......................................37.50....................0.1%
Waste Heat..............................................37.23....................0.1%
Landfill Gas .............................................33.30....................0.1%
Geothermal..............................................30.18....................0.1%
Other Gas................................................17.00....................0.0%
Refuse ....................................................15.79....................0.0%
Biomass Gas .............................................5.60....................0.0%
Biomass Other...........................................1.60....................0.0%
Total 43,551.06 100.0%
Section 2
Future Generating Capacity:
Fuel Mix
Tables 2.1 – 2.4 show the fuel makeup of America’s
future generation capacity.
TABLE 2.1 shows the sources for the 43,551 MW of
generation capacity under construction. Natural gas
and wind account for over three-quarters of the capac-
ity under construction. Three major nuclear operations
in the Southeast account for all nuclear capacity under
construction.
Natural Gas
43%
Coal
0.7%
Other
1.9%
Hydro
1%
Wind
33.7%
Solar
6.5%
Nuclear
13.2%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 7
TABLE 2.2 shows the fuel makeup for plants that have
received permits to construct 48,551 MW of capacity
overall but that have not yet started construction.
Natural gas is the leading resource choice for permitted
plants, accounting for over half of the new capacity.
Wind is second and accounts for nearly a quarter of
potential capacity.
TABLE 2.2
Permitted Plants, Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share
Natural Gas ......................................25,024.50..................51.5%
Wind................................................11,901.28..................24.5%
Solar..................................................6,517.65..................13.4%
Coal...................................................2,855.00....................5.9%
Geothermal............................................740.90....................1.5%
Other ....................................................587.00....................1.2%
Hydro....................................................477.74....................1.0%
Wood ....................................................298.90....................0.6%
Biomass Gas ...........................................50.00....................0.1%
Agricultural Byproduct..............................49.90....................0.1%
Distillate Fuel Oil......................................26.00....................0.1%
Waste .....................................................12.00....................0.0%
Landfill Gas .............................................10.31....................0.0%
Total 48,551.18 100.0%
TABLE 2.3
Pending Application Plants, Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share
Natural Gas ......................................32,246.37..................40.5%
Solar................................................15,269.13..................19.2%
Nuclear ............................................12,516.00..................15.7%
Wind................................................11,067.91..................13.9%
Hydro.................................................5,923.00....................7.4%
Coal...................................................1,417.00....................1.8%
Geothermal............................................408.00....................0.5%
Waste Heat............................................361.00....................0.5%
Wood ....................................................194.30....................0.2%
Waste .....................................................69.80....................0.1%
Liquefied Natural Gas...............................50.63....................0.1%
Agricultural Byproduct..............................50.00....................0.1%
Landfill Gas .............................................33.33....................0.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil......................................11.00....................0.0%
Biomass Solid............................................5.00....................0.0%
Total 79,622.47 100.0%
TABLE 2.3 shows the fuel mix for the 79,622 MW of
capacity awaiting approval of applications. Natural
gas is the leading resource choice, accounting for over
40 percent of the capacity. Solar is second, accounting
for 19 percent of the capacity.
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 8
TABLE 2.4
Proposed Plants, Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share
Wind................................................65,986.98..................32.9%
Natural Gas ......................................44,194.86..................22.1%
Hydro...............................................33,919.32..................16.9%
Solar................................................30,292.19..................15.1%
Nuclear ............................................15,955.00....................8.0%
Coal...................................................4,545.00....................2.3%
Geothermal.........................................1,834.70....................0.9%
Wood .................................................1,019.48....................0.5%
Residual Fuel Oil....................................632.40....................0.3%
Blast Furnace Gas..................................600.00....................0.3%
Other ....................................................338.59....................0.2%
Waste ...................................................282.80....................0.1%
Landfill Gas ...........................................163.14....................0.1%
Biomass Solid........................................128.63....................0.1%
Waste Heat............................................120.00....................0.1%
Biomass Gas ...........................................63.92....................0.0%
Jet Fuel...................................................60.00....................0.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil......................................53.95....................0.0%
Biomass Other.........................................53.60....................0.0%
Agricultural Byproduct..............................19.44....................0.0%
Biomass Liquid ..........................................9.00....................0.0%
Total 200,272.98 100.0%
TABLE 2.4 shows the resource mix for the 200,273 MW of capacity still in the planning
stages. This is the earliest and most uncertain stage of development, and includes
units that are least likely to be built. Wind power accounts for approximately one-third
of planned capacity with natural gas, hydro, and solar accounting for the bulk of the
remaining capacity.
Natural Gas
22.1%
Coal
2.3%
Other
2.7%
Nuclear
8%
Hydro
16.9%
Wind
32.9%
Solar
15.1%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 9
FIGURE 3.1 tracks the major fuel sources in each stage
of development. Natural gas is the dominant fuel choice
in the first three stages — under construction, permitted,
and pending application. Wind becomes dominant in the
proposed capacity stage. Figure 1 also shows that the
resource mix is more balanced in the earlier stages of
development.
Section 3
Future Generating Capacity:
Development Stages
FIGURE 3.1
Share of Fuel Type: Stage of Development, 2015
0%	
  
10%	
  
20%	
  
30%	
  
40%	
  
50%	
  
60%	
  
Under	
  Construc5on	
   Permi9ed	
   Pending	
  Applica5on	
   Proposed	
  
Percent	
  Share	
  
Share	
  of	
  Fuel	
  Type:	
  Stage	
  of	
  Development,	
  	
  2015	
  
Coal	
  
Natural	
  Gas	
  
Nuclear	
  
Wind	
  
Hydro	
  
Solar	
  
Other	
  	
  	
  	
  
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 10
FIGURES 3.2 – 3.5 demonstrate how the fuel mix outlook has changed from 2007 to 2015.
FIGURE 3.2
Share of Fuel Type: Plants Under Construction, 2007-2015
FIGURE 3.2 shows the capacity under construction. The most notable development
is the steep decline in coal under construction — from over 40 percent in 2009 to just
above 1 percent in 2014. Wind capacity under construction has increased from
12 percent in 2007 to over 34 percent in 2015. Natural gas has been by far the most
popular resource in the under construction category from 2007 to 2015.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PercentShare
Figure 3.2
Share of Fuel Type: Plants Under Construction,
2007-2015
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Wind
Hydro
Solar
Other
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 11
FIGURE 3.3
Share of Fuel Type: Permitted Plants, 2007-2015
FIGURES 3.3 – 3.4 track fuel types in the permitted and pending application categories,
which show some major fluctuations in the first few years and then become relatively
steady. Coal has declined precipitously — from 50 percent to 6 percent in the
permitted category, and from 48 percent to 2 percent in the application pending
category.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PercentShare
Figure 3.3
Share of Fuel Type: Permitted Plants, 2007-2015
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Wind
Hydro
Solar
Other
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 12
FIGURE 3.4
Share of Fuel Type: Application Pending, 2007-2015
As seen in FIGURE 3.4, the fuel mix in the application pending category varies most
widely, with different fuels like wind, solar, and nuclear emerging in recent years.
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 13
FIGURE 3.5
Share of Fuel Type: Proposed Plants, 2007-2015
FIGURE 3.5 shows the steep decline in coal for proposed plants, paralleled by the
growth in wind, solar, and natural gas.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PercentShare
Figure 3.5
Share of Fuel Type: Proposed Plants, 2007-2015
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Wind
Hydro
Solar
Other
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 14
TABLE 4.1 shows that four regions account for roughly
three-quarters of the capacity under construction.
TABLE 4.1
Plants Under Construction, by Region
Region* Capacity (MW) Share
SERC .................................................9,046.83..................20.8%
RFC....................................................8,049.93..................18.5%
WECC ................................................7,786.19..................17.9%
ERCOT ...............................................7,236.29..................16.6%
SPP....................................................4,348.25..................10.0%
MRO ..................................................3,748.10....................8.6%
FRCC .................................................2,591.03....................5.9%
ASCC....................................................333.50....................0.8%
NPCC....................................................329.80....................0.8%
HCC........................................................81.14....................0.2%
Total 43,551.06 100.0%
Section 4
Future Generating Capacity:
Regional Mix
TABLES 4.1 – 4.4 show where the new plants are
being built or planned for construction by North
American Electric Reliability Corporation regions.
(See Appendix 1 for definition of regions and included
states and Appendix 2 for the fuel mix for each region.)
* Regions Defined by NERC
ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating
Council (not shown on map)
FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council
HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council
(not shown on map)
NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council
MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization
RFC: Reliability First Corporation
SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability
Council
SPP: Southwest Power Pool
TRE: Texas Reliability Entity
WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating
Council
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 15
TABLE 4.2 shows that the Western Electricity Coordinat-
ing Council region has over 30 percent of the permitted
capacity.
TABLE 4.2
Permitted Plants, by Region
Region* Capacity (MW) Share
WECC ..............................................17,142.83..................35.3%
ERCOT .............................................12,027.60..................24.8%
RFC....................................................4,974.50..................10.2%
SERC .................................................4,429.67....................9.1%
NPCC.................................................4,368.97....................9.0%
MRO ..................................................2,549.40....................5.3%
SPP....................................................2,093.80....................4.3%
FRCC ....................................................593.00....................1.2%
ASCC....................................................339.70....................0.7%
HCC........................................................31.72....................0.1%
Total 48,551.19 100.0%
* Regions Defined by NERC
ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating
Council (not shown on map)
FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council
HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council
(not shown on map)
NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council
MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization
RFC: Reliability First Corporation
SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability
Council
SPP: Southwest Power Pool
TRE: Texas Reliability Entity
WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating
Council
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 16
TABLES 4.3 and 4.4 show plants in the pending
application and proposed categories, in both of which
WECC has far more potential capacity than any other
region.
TABLE 4.3
Pending Application Plants,
by Region
Region* Capacity (MW) Share
WECC ..............................................34,329.53..................43.1%
ERCOT .............................................17,377.22..................21.8%
RFC..................................................12,415.60..................15.6%
SERC .................................................6,856.88....................8.6%
NPCC.................................................4,002.67....................5.0%
FRCC .................................................3,060.00....................3.8%
MRO ..................................................1,052.04....................1.3%
SPP.......................................................261.80....................0.3%
HCC......................................................197.93....................0.2%
ASCC......................................................68.80....................0.1%
Total 79,622.47 100.0%
TABLE 4.4
Proposed Plants, by Region
Region* Capacity (MW) Share
WECC ..............................................85,699.61..................42.8%
RFC..................................................29,539.95..................14.7%
SERC ...............................................24,666.25..................12.3%
MRO ................................................15,977.90....................8.0%
ERCOT .............................................14,445.20....................7.2%
SPP..................................................11,611.20....................5.8%
NPCC.................................................8,893.43....................4.4%
FRCC .................................................5,238.92....................2.6%
ASCC.................................................3,505.04....................1.8%
HCC......................................................695.48....................0.3%
Total 200,272.98 100.0%
* Regions Defined by NERC
ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating
Council (not shown on map)
FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council
HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council
(not shown on map)
NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council
MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization
RFC: Reliability First Corporation
SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability
Council
SPP: Southwest Power Pool
TRE: Texas Reliability Entity
WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating
Council
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 17
TABLES 4.5 and 4.6 show the fuels of choice for proposed capacity by development stage.
As seen in TABLE 4.5, for plants most certain to be built — those already under construction or permitted — natural
gas and wind account for over 76 percent of the capacity, with solar contributing another 10 percent.
Nearly half of the capacity under construction and permitted is in WECC and Electric Reliability Council of Texas
regions, with another 28.7 percent in Reliability First Corporation and Southeastern Electric Reliability Council regions.
Natural gas is the primary resource in the ERCOT and RFC regions as well as in the Florida Reliability Coordinating
Council and Northeast Power Coordinating Council regions. In each of these four regions, natural gas accounts for at
least two-thirds of future capacity.
There is a general increase in planned solar capacity. Just under 88 percent of solar capacity in the permitted and
under construction stages is located in the WECC region. Four regions account for nearly 85 percent of new wind
capacity — ERCOT and WECC as well as the Midwest Reliability Organization and Southwest Power Pool regions.
TABLE 4.5
Plants Under Construction and
Permitted, by Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share
Natural Gas ......................................43,766.19..................47.5%
Wind................................................26,586.98..................28.9%
Solar..................................................9,365.29..................10.2%
Nuclear ..............................................5,737.90....................6.2%
Coal...................................................3,175.00....................3.4%
Hydro....................................................906.42....................1.0%
Geothermal............................................771.08....................0.8%
Other ....................................................692.00....................0.8%
Wood ....................................................387.46....................0.4%
Waste ...................................................290.20....................0.3%
Biomass Solid..........................................77.50....................0.1%
Distillate Fuel Oil......................................63.50....................0.1%
Wood Waste Liquids.................................62.00....................0.1%
Biomass Gas ...........................................55.60....................0.1%
Agricultural Byproduct..............................49.90....................0.1%
Landfill Gas .............................................43.61....................0.0%
Waste Heat..............................................37.23....................0.0%
Other Gas................................................17.00....................0.0%
Refuse ....................................................15.79....................0.0%
Biomass Other...........................................1.60....................0.0%
Total 92,102.24 100.0%
Natural Gas
47.5%
Coal
3.4%
Other
2.8%
Hydro
1%
Wind
28.9%
Solar
10.2%
Nuclear
6.2%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 18
As seen in TABLE 4.6, for plants in the more distant future — those that are proposed or pending application —
the fuel mix tends more toward wind and other renewable resources, compared to plants that are scheduled to
come online in the near future. There is almost as much natural gas capacity as wind in these stages.
TABLE 4.6
Proposed and Application Pending
Plants, by Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share
Wind................................................77,054.89..................27.5%
Natural Gas ......................................76,441.23..................27.3%
Solar................................................45,561.32..................16.3%
Hydro...............................................39,842.31..................14.2%
Nuclear ............................................28,471.00..................10.2%
Coal...................................................5,962.00....................2.1%
Geothermal.........................................2,242.70....................0.8%
Wood .................................................1,213.78....................0.4%
Residual Fuel Oil....................................632.40....................0.2%
Blast Furnace Gas..................................600.00....................0.2%
Waste Heat............................................481.00....................0.2%
Waste ...................................................352.60....................0.1%
Other ....................................................338.59....................0.1%
Landfill Gas ...........................................196.47....................0.1%
Biomass Solid........................................133.63....................0.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil......................................64.95....................0.0%
Biomass Gas ...........................................63.92....................0.0%
Agricultural Byproduct..............................63.14....................0.0%
Jet Fuel...................................................60.00....................0.0%
Biomass Other.........................................53.60....................0.0%
Liquefied Natural Gas...............................50.63....................0.0%
Biomass Liquid ..........................................9.00....................0.0%
Total 279,889.15 100.0%
Wind is slated to account for twenty percent or more of new capacity in all but the Alaska and Florida regions and is
the leading resource in four regions. Nearly 83 percent of the proposed or application pending solar capacity is locat-
ed in WECC, a region that accounts for much of the future renewable capacity, and for nearly half of all capacity in
the proposed and application pending stages. Other forms of renewable energy, particularly wood, waste, and waste
heat, are more dispersed through the various regions.
Natural Gas
27.3%
Coal
2.1%
Other
2.4%
Hydro
14.2%
Wind
27.5%
Solar
16.3%
Nuclear
10.2%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 19
Section 5
Future Generating Capacity:
Ownership Type
Analysis of future generation capacity by ownership
is summarized in Tables 5.1 – 5.4.
TABLE 5.1 shows that for plants under construction,
most of the capacity is owned by non-utility generators,
while regulated utilities collectively account for over
40 percent of the capacity.
TABLE 5.1
Plants Under Construction,
by Ownership
Utility Type Capacity (MW) Share
Investor Owned.................................11,052.99..................25.4%
Public Power ......................................4,597.56..................10.6%
Federal...............................................1,290.40....................3.0%
Co-op....................................................979.18....................2.2%
Regulated Total..............................17,920.13..................41.1%
Non-utility Generators .......................25,630.93..................58.9%
Total 43,551.06 100.0%
TABLE 5.2
Permitted Plants, by Ownership
Ownership Capacity (MW) Share
Investor Owned ..................................2,172.67 ...................4.5%
Co-op.................................................1,915.00 ...................3.9%
Public Power ......................................1,179.60 ...................2.4%
Federal....................................................15.00 ...................0.0%
Regulated Total................................5,282.27..................10.9%
Non-utility Generators .......................43,268.92..................89.1%
Total 48,551.19 100.0%
Public Power
10.6%
Co-op 2.2%
Federal 3%
Non-utility
Generators
58.9%
Investor
Owned
25.4%
Public Power
2.4%
Co-op 3.9%
Non-utility
Generators
89.1%
Investor
Owned
4.5%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 20
TABLE 5.3
Pending Application Plants,
by Ownership
Ownership Capacity (MW) Share
Investor Owned...................................9,368.13 .................14.1%
Co-op.................................................2,148.47 ...................3.2%
Public Power ......................................1,571.59 ...................2.4%
Federal....................................................11.00 ...................0.0%
Regulated Total..............................13,099.20 .................16.5%
Non-utility Generators .......................66,523.28 .................83.5%
Total 79,622.47 100.0%
Of note in TABLE 5.4 is that for proposed plants,
generation owned by public power has the largest
share of capacity among utilities.
TABLES 5.2 – 5.4 show that non-utility generators
account for significant capacity in the earlier stages
of development.
TABLE 5.4
Proposed Plants, by Ownership
Ownership Capacity (MW) Share
Public Power ....................................12,375.95 ...................6.2%
Investor Owned.................................10,897.47 ...................5.4%
Federal...............................................4,940.50 ...................2.5%
Co-op.................................................2,869.67 ...................1.4%
Regulated Total..............................31,083.59 .................15.5%
Non-utility Generators .....................169,189.40 .................84.5%
Total 200,272.98 100.0%
Public Power
6.2%
Co-op 1.4%
Federal 2.5%
Non-utility
Generators
84.5%
Investor Owned
5.4%
Public Power
2.4%
Co-op
3.2%
Non-utility
Generators
83.5%
Investor
Owned
14.1%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 21
Section 6
Generating Capacity:
Retirements and Cancellations
TABLES 6.1 and 6.2 show generation capacity retire-
ments by fuel type between 2008 and 2014, when just
over 66,000 MW of capacity was retired. Over 77 per-
cent of this retired capacity was natural gas or coal, and
14 percent was oil. More than 84 percent of the retired
natural gas capacity used steam turbines.
TABLE 6.1
Retired Plants by Fuel Type,
2008-2014
Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share
Coal.................................................27,717.50..................41.6%
Natural Gas ......................................23,487.80..................35.2%
Residual Fuel Oil.................................6,308.10....................9.5%
Nuclear ..............................................3,781.47....................5.7%
Distillate Fuel Oil.................................3,022.79....................4.5%
Hydro....................................................938.25....................1.4%
Petroleum Coke .....................................323.50....................0.5%
Wood Waste Liquid ................................187.30....................0.3%
Blast Furnace Gas..................................171.20....................0.3%
Wood ..................................................166.80....................0.3%
Landfill Gas ...........................................150.20....................0.2%
Wind.....................................................133.60....................0.2%
Other ....................................................67.00....................0.1%
Waste .....................................................44.70....................0.1%
Geothermal..............................................40.20....................0.1%
Other Gas................................................37.50....................0.1%
Purchased Steam.....................................37.00....................0.1%
Jet Fuel...................................................17.40....................0.0%
Biomass Liquid ........................................15.80....................0.0%
Biomass Gas .............................................7.00....................0.0%
Solar.........................................................3.50....................0.0%
Other Oil....................................................3.00....................0.0%
Total 66,661.61 100.0%
Natural Gas
35.2%
Coal
41.6%
Nuclear
5.7%
Hydro
1.4%
Wind
0.2% Other
15.9%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 22
TABLE 6.2
Retired Plants by Fuel Type, 2014
Primary Fuel Capacity (MW) Share
Coal...................................................4,509.60 .................61.4%
Natural Gas ........................................1,534.30 .................20.9%
Residual Fuel Oil....................................490.50 ...................6.7%
Distillate Fuel Oil....................................254.95 ...................3.5%
Hydro....................................................212.50 ...................2.9%
Petroleum Coke .....................................184.00 ...................2.5%
Wood Waste Liquids.................................88.70 ...................1.2%
Wind.......................................................63.60 ...................0.9%
Landfill Gas .............................................10.60 ...................0.1%
Jet Fuel.....................................................1.20 ...................0.0%
Total 7,349.95 100.0%
More than 7,000 MW of capacity was retired in 2014
alone, of which coal accounted for over 60 percent.
Over 54,000 MW of current operating capacity is
scheduled to retire by 2020, two-thirds of which is coal.
Almost all planned natural gas retirements are powered
by steam or gas combustion turbines.
TABLE 6.3 reflects planned retirements that have been
publicly announced.
TABLE 6.3
Planned Retirements to 2020,
by Fuel Type
Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) % Planned
Retirement
Capacity
Coal.................................................35,419.20 .................65.1%
Natural Gas ......................................13,987.30 .................25.7%
Residual Fuel Oil.................................1,465.20 ...................2.7%
Distillate Fuel Oil.................................1,240.70 ...................2.3%
Hydro.................................................1,018.00 ...................1.9%
Nuclear .................................................550.00 ...................1.0%
Kerosene...............................................418.50 ...................0.8%
Wind.....................................................279.35 ...................0.5%
Landfill Gas .............................................22.30 ...................0.0%
Biomass Gas .............................................3.50 ...................0.0%
Total 54,404.05 100.0%
s
Natural Gas
25.7%
Coal
65.1%
Other
5.8%Hydro
1.9%
Wind
0.5%
Nuclear
1%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 23
TABLE 6.4
Plant Cancellations, 2014
Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share
Capacity (MW)
Wind................................................28,226.05..................54.0%
Solar................................................15,749.02..................30.1%
Natural Gas ........................................3,404.77....................6.5%
Hydro.................................................2,820.42....................5.4%
Geothermal............................................902.00....................1.7%
Coal......................................................478.50....................0.9%
Waste ...................................................262.80....................0.5%
Wood ....................................................242.60....................0.5%
Landfill Gas .............................................81.44....................0.2%
Biomass Gas ...........................................49.00....................0.1%
Other Gas................................................10.00....................0.0%
Biomass Solid............................................8.60....................0.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil........................................2.98....................0.0%
Total 52,238.16 100.0%
More than 52,000 MW of planned capacity additions was canceled in 2014, nearly
triple the amount of capacity added to the grid. Wind and solar constituted 84 percent
of this canceled capacity.
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 24
TABLE 6.5
Plant Cancellations, 2008-2014
Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share
Capacity (MW)
Wind 124,583.27 33.0%
Coal.................................................55,838.50..................14.8%
Natural Gas ......................................54,026.96..................14.3%
Hydro...............................................53,542.85..................14.2%
Solar................................................50,870.05..................13.5%
Nuclear ............................................23,130.00....................6.1%
Petroleum Coke ..................................5,060.20....................1.3%
Wood .................................................3,540.03....................0.9%
Geothermal.........................................1,700.00....................0.4%
Other Gas...........................................1,646.00....................0.4%
Biomass Gas ......................................1,198.05....................0.3%
Waste ...................................................716.30....................0.2%
Other ..................................................681.20....................0.2%
Biomass Gas .........................................469.60....................0.1%
Landfill Gas ...........................................327.52....................0.1%
Agricultural Byproduct............................280.32....................0.1%
Waste Heat............................................125.80....................0.0%
Biomass Gas ...........................................96.04....................0.0%
Kerosene.................................................49.20....................0.0%
Biomass Other.........................................30.00....................0.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil......................................21.98....................0.0%
Wood Waste Liquids...................................3.80....................0.0%
Total 377,937.66 100.0%
Since 2008, nearly 378,000 MW of planned capacity additions were ultimately
canceled, more than double the amount that was actually added. Wind represents
one-third of this canceled capacity. Nearly equal shares of coal, natural gas, hydro,
and solar were also canceled during this time.
Natural Gas
14.3%
Solar
13.5%
Coal
14.8%
Other
4.1%
Hydro
14.2%
Wind
33%
Nuclear
6.1%
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 25
FIGURE 6.1 shows additions, cancellations, and retirements from 2008 to 2014.
Natural gas is the only resource for which additions outnumber cancellations.
For all other resources, far more capacity was cancelled than was added.
FIGURE 6.1
Additions, Cancellations, and Retirements, 2008-2014
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 26
continued on next page
Impending environmental regulations have made coal capacity especially vulnerable to retirements, with nearly 37
gigawatts of existing capacity likely to retire by 2020.1
Some states have much more coal capacity at risk than others.
Table 6.6 shows current coal capacity and planned retirements and additions in each state.
In several states with large amounts of planned retirements, there is not a corresponding amount of capacity currently
under construction or permitted. Conversely, several states have much more capacity under development than facing
retirement.
TABLE 6.6 compares coal to planned natural gas, wind, and total capacity additions. While natural gas additions
will equal or exceed coal retirements in many states, added wind capacity will make up for coal retirements in other
states.
TABLE 6.6
Coal Retirements and Additions
State Total Current Coal Anounced Planned Planned Planned Total Planned
Capacity Capacity Coal Coal Natural Gas Wind Capacity
(MW) (MW) Retirements Additions Additions Additions Additions
(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)
Alabama 34,408.63 11,797.20 2,594.20 62.00
Alaska 2,899.41 113.50 32.50 300.00 17.60 673.20
Arizona 31,554.59 6,690.80 1,092.00 1,050.00 51.00 2,010.30
Arkansas 16,789.69 5,287.00 1.80
California 80,610.12 238.70 115.50 4,460.20 911.10 10,933.99
Colorado 16,884.84 5,705.10 365.20 665.60 298.70 1,114.30
Connecticut 9,821.67 400.00 24.80 27.26
Delaware 3,255.94 442.40 309.20 309.20
District of Columbia 10.80 0.00
Florida 68,510.13 11,361.70 1,252.70 3,264.20 3,184.03
Georgia 42,111.66 13,444.20 2,441.90 850.00 760.00 4,105.76
Hawaii 3,027.45 203.00 112.86
Idaho 4,987.74 18.90 6.20 520.00 5.49 227.70 817.19
Illinois 51,822.09 17,355.80 1,218.40 571.00 1,202.40 1,820.66
Indiana 30,858.83 20,688.80 2,522.80 644.00 280.00 937.00
Iowa 17,263.00 7,168.41 689.80 870.00 1,557.05 2,482.05
Kansas 15,607.03 5,384.80 49.00 895.00 246.20 1,884.10 3,026.30
Kentucky 25,028.54 17,822.70 3,057.50 690.00 968.80
Louisiana 29,400.63 3,764.30 46.00 629.40 629.40
Maine 4,843.89 0.00 277.40 282.40
Maryland 13,676.60 5,139.20 1,328.40 866.00 190.00 1,219.00
Massachusetts 14,788.18 1,160.30 1,154.60 1,394.00 468.60 1,958.36
Michigan 33,485.33 12,339.90 2,429.70 143.90 134.40 279.34
Minnesota 17,933.74 5,353.90 785.50 1,274.50 1,274.50
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 27
1
This total includes 35,419 MW of announced coal retirements plus an additional 1,500 MW of coal capacity that Ventyx estimates is likely to
retire based on certain criteria. This does not include unannounced retirements and other coal capacity vulnerable to retirement if more stringent
regulations are put in place.
Mississippi 17,926.38 2,887.50
Missouri 23,643.37 12,878.00 365.10 27.60 31.51
Montana 6,530.70 2,676.60 240.00 255.00
Nebraska 9,378.85 4,274.00 73.50 303.90 303.90
Nevada 12,578.38 1,445.80 294.80 200.10 1,915.20
New Hampshire 4,896.07 559.20 50.00 8.55 8.55
New Jersey 20,457.76 2,003.00 2,105.00 2,171.80
New Mexico 8,811.89 3,741.20 924.00 815.00 904.07
New York 44,068.69 2,170.70 204.50 2,128.00 107.80 2,300.85
North Carolina 33,165.35 10,957.10 40.00 475.00 80.00 1,035.18
North Dakota 7,139.81 4,363.40 90.00 1,538.50 1,628.50
Ohio 34,971.12 19,498.50 3,154.80 2,754.00 1,054.29 3,811.69
Oklahoma 25,322.14 5,844.00 1,013.00 103.00, 1,713.55 1,816.55
Oregon 14,602.97 601.00 601.00 662.00 1,258.50 2,227.07
Pennsylvania 47,058.53 15,628.40 1,342.00 2,823.00 2,924.10
Rhode Island 2,074.35 0.00 45.00 45.23
South Carolina 24,579.45 6,277.70 366.00 750.00 3,019.00
South Dakota 4,242.20 456.00 402.05 402.05
Tennessee 23,923.65 9,210.70 2,511.20 1,303.50
Texas 122,043.07 25,354.80 558.00 240.00 13,924.70 6,084.40 21,186.09
Utah 8,940.77 5,218.89 296.10 5.90 140.00 545.90
Vermont 1,435.65 0.00 30.00 76.12
Virginia 28,268.67 5,890.20 593.00 1,358.00 1,391.70
Washington 31,500.66 1,459.80 729.90 267.00 417.00
West Virginia 17,213.39 15,019.93 1,802.70 52.50 110.50
Wisconsin 19,369.78 8,410.10 802.40 102.50 102.50
Wyoming 8,889.02 6,755.80 7.00 670 3,269.00 3,939.00
Total 1,172,613.18 325,462.93 36,910.90 3,175.00 44,075.39 26,511.98 92,102.24
TABLE 6.6
Coal Retirements and Additions (continued from page 26)
State Total Current Coal Anounced Planned Planned Planned Total Planned
Capacity Capacity Coal Coal Natural Gas Wind Capacity
(MW) (MW) Retirements Additions Additions Additions Additions
(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 28
TABLE 6.7
Net Potential Generation Capacity by 2020
TABLE 6.7 combines current operating capacity with planned capacity additions and retirements to demonstrate the
shift in electricity generation in America by 2020. This table only includes plants permitted and under construction
because proposed capacity is uncertain. Planned retirements and additions can and most likely will change.
The table shows the continued prominence of natural gas-fired generation. Solar capacity does not require as much
lead time to be developed as other fuels, so this table likely undercounts the amount of solar and wind capacity that
will be online in the future.
Primary Fuel Type Existing Percent Planned Existing Plus Planned Net Potential Percent Potential
Nameplate Capacity Added Planned Retirements Cacpacity in Increase Percent
Capacity in in 2015 Capacity Added by 2020 2020 (MW) in Capacity Capacity
2015 (MW) (MW) Capacity (MW) by 2020 in 2020
Natural Gas 489,327.93 41.88% 43,766.19 533,094.12 13,987.30 519,106.82 6.1% 43.04%
Coal 324,908.24 27.81% 3,175.00 328,083.24 35,419.20 292,664.04 -9.9% 24.27%
Nuclear 107,548.64 9.21% 5,737.90 113,286.54 550.00 112,736.54 4.8% 9.35%
Hydro 98,381.72 8.42% 906.42 99,288.14 1,018.00 98,270.14 -0.1% 8.15%
Wind 63,588.62 5.44% 26,586.98 90,175.60 279.35 89,896.25 41.4% 7.45%
Distillate Fuel Oil 25,030.22 2.14% 63.50 25,093.72 1,240.70 23,853.02 -4.7% 1.98%
Oil 18,401.80 1.58% 18,401.80 1,465.20 16,936.60 -8.0% 1.40%
Solar 10,595.40 0.91% 9,365.29 19,960.70 19,960.70 88.4% 1.66%
Wood 4,988.27 0.43% 387.46 5,375.72 5,375.72 7.8% 0.45%
Wood Waste Liquids 4,790.95 0.41% 62.00 4,852.95 4,852.95 1.3% 0.40%
Geothermal 3,869.45 0.33% 771.08 4,640.53 4,640.53 19.9% 0.38%
Petroleum Coke 2,774.20 0.24% 2,774.20 2,774.20 0.0% 0.23%
Waste 2,697.75 0.23% 290.20 2,987.95 2,987.95 10.8% 0.25%
Landfill Gas 2,561.60 0.22% 43.61 2,605.21 22.30 2,582.91 0.8% 0.21%
Kerosene 2,185.70 0.19% 2,185.70 418.50 1,767.20 -19.1% 0.15%
Other Gas 2,042.80 0.17% 17.00 2,059.80 2,059.80 0.8% 0.17%
Waste Heat 1,131.11 0.10% 37.23 1,168.34 1,168.34 3.3% 0.10%
Blast Furnace Gas 929.60 0.08% 929.60 929.60 0.0% 0.08%
Jet Fuel Oil 537.94 0.05% 537.94 537.94 0.0% 0.04%
Purchased Steam 419.40 0.04% 419.40 419.40 0.0% 0.03%
Agricultural Byproduct 392.50 0.03% 49.90 442.40 442.40 12.7% 0.04%
Other 383.24 0.03% 707.79 1,091.03 1,091.03 184.7% 0.09%
Biomass Gas 354.51 0.03% 55.60 410.11 3.50 406.61 14.7% 0.03%
Biomass Solid 220.86 0.02% 77.50 298.36 298.36 35.1% 0.02%
continued on page 29
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 29
Biomass Liquid 126.69 0.01% 126.69 126.69 0.0% 0.01%
Oil Other 119.91 0.01% 119.91 119.91 0.0% 0.01%
Biomass Other 5.96 0.00% 1.60 7.56 7.56 26.8% 0.00%
MultiFuel 4.00 0.00% 4.00 4.00 0.0% 0.00%
Propane 1.63 0.00% 1.63 1.63 0.0% 0.00%
Total 1,168,320.63 100.00% 92,102.24 1,260,422.87 54,404.05 1,206,018.82 3.2% 100.00%
TABLE 6.7
Net Potential Generation Capacity by 2020 (continued from page 28)
Primary Fuel Type Existing Percent Planned Existing Plus Planned Net Potential Percent Potential
Nameplate Capacity Added Planned Retirements Cacpacity in Increase Percent
Capacity in in 2015 Capacity Added by 2020 2020 (MW) in Capacity Capacity
2015 (MW) (MW) Capacity (MW) by 2020 in 2020
Natural Gas
43.04%
Coal
24.27%
Nuclear
9.35%
Hydro
8.15%
Other
6.08%
Solar
1.66%
Wind
7.45%
2020 Potential
Generation Capacity
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 30
The rate of new capacity additions has slowed over the
past couple of years, but the trends in new capacity
development have remained consistent. Natural gas
continues to be the leading resource for current and
future capacity, while wind and solar are making greater
inroads into the nation’s overall electricity generation
capacity.
The data on cancellations and additions illustrates that
while the overall capacity mix in the United States will
change, it will do so at a gradual pace. Coal and other
traditional forms of electric generation are being dis-
placed by wind, solar, and other forms of renewable
generation. Environmental regulations as well as the
speed at which certain resources can be developed
might spur more significant changes. However, the
overall fuel mix five years hence will not be dramatically
different from the current mix.
Section 7
Conclusion
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 31
Appendix 1
Regions
This report uses regions defined by the North American Electric Reliability Council:
ASCC - Alaska Systems Coordinating Council (not shown on map)
FRCC – Florida Reliability Coordinating Council
HCC – Hawaii Coordinating Council (not shown on map)
NPCC - Northeast Power Coordinating Council
MRO – Midwest Reliability Organization
RFC – Reliability First Corporation
SERC - Southeastern Electric Reliability Council
SPP – Southwest Power Pool
TRE – Texas Reliability Entity*
WECC - Western Electricity Coordinating Council
* The Independent System Operator that operates the electric grid for nearly all of the state of Texas is the
Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and is the name used for this region in the report. The Texas
Reliability Entity (TRE) monitors and enforces compliance with reliability standards for NERC.
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 32
ASCC Hydro 351.20 52.2% 38.7%
Natural Gas 300.00 44.6% 0.7%
Wind 17.60 2.6% 0.1%
Distillate Fuel Oil 4.40 0.7% 6.9%
Total 673.20
ERCOT Natural Gas 13,059.70 67.8% 29.8%
Wind 5,334.20 27.7% 20.1%
Other 332.00 1.7% 48.0%
Coal 240.00 1.2% 7.6%
Solar 219.20 1.1% 2.3%
Wood 63.00 0.3% 16.3%
Refuse 15.79 0.1%
Total 19,263.89
FRCC Natural Gas 2,955.00 92.8% 6.8%
Waste 95.00 3.0% 32.7%
Solar 76.50 2.4% 0.8%
Waste Heat 35.03 1.1% 94.1%
Biomass Solid 18.50 0.6% 23.9%
Biomass Gas 4.00 0.1% 7.2%
Total 3,184.03
HCC Solar 50.59 44.8% 0.5%
Biomass Solid 28.00 24.8% 36.1%
Hydro 14.72 13.0% 1.6%
Waste 12.00 10.6% 4.1%
Wood 7.56 6.7% 1.9%
Total 112.86
MRO Wind 5,282.50 83.9% 19.9%
Natural Gas 960.00 15.2% 2.2%
Hydro 55.00 0.9% 6.1%
Total 6,297.50
Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region
Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s
New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity
Appendix 2
Regional Fuel Mix
continued on next page
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 33
NPCC Natural Gas 3,522.00 75.0% 8.0%
Wind 962.15 20.5% 3.6%
Solar 99.63 2.1% 1.1%
Wood 72.00 1.5% 18.6%
Hydro 21.99 0.5% 2.4%
Waste 21.00 0.4% 7.2%
Total 4,698.77
RFC Natural Gas 10,216.10 78.4% 23.3%
Wind 2,192.09 16.8% 8.2%
Hydro 250.90 1.9% 27.7%
Waste 157.00 1.2% 54.1%
Solar 113.84 0.9% 1.2%
Other 90.00 0.7% 13.0%
Biomass Solid 3.00 0.0% 3.9%
Distillate Fuel Oil 1.50 0.0% 2.4%
Total 13,024.43
SERC Nuclear 5,737.90 42.6% 100.0%
Natural Gas 5,139.00 38.1% 11.7%
Coal 850.00 6.3% 26.8%
Wind 697.50 5.2% 2.6%
Solar 598.18 4.4% 6.4%
Wood 149.00 1.1% 38.5%
Hydro 119.12 0.9% 13.1%
Wood Waste Liquid 62.00 0.5% 100.0%
Biomass Gas 50.00 0.4% 89.9%
Landfill Gas 39.01 0.3% 89.5%
Biomass Solid 28.00 0.2% 36.1%
Waste 5.20 0.0% 1.8%
Biomass Other 1.60 0.0% 100.0%
Total 13,476.51
Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 32)
Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s
New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity
continued on next page
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 34
Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 33)
Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s
New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity
SPP Wind 4,862.85 75.5% 18.3%
Coal 895.00 13.9% 28.2%
Natural Gas 413.20 6.4% 0.9%
Other 270.00 4.2% 39.0%
Solar 1.00 0.0% 0.0%
Total 6,442.05
WECC Solar 8,206.36 32.9% 87.6%
Wind 7,238.10 29.0% 27.2%
Natural Gas 7,201.19 28.9% 16.5%
Coal 1,190.00 4.8% 37.5%
Geothermal 771.08 3.1% 100.0%
Wood 95.90 0.4% 24.8%
Hydro 93.50 0.4% 10.3%
Distillate Fuel Oil 57.60 0.2% 90.7%
Agricultural Byproduct 49.90 0.2% 100.0%
Other Gas 17.00 0.1% 100.0%
Landfill Gas 4.60 0.0% 10.5%
Waste Heat 2.20 0.0% 5.9%
Biomass Gas 1.60 0.0% 2.9%
Total 24,929.02
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 35
Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region
Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s
New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity
ASCC Hydro 3,239.24 90.6% 8.1%
Coal 120.00 3.4% 2.0%
Geothermal 110.00 3.1% 4.9%
Jet Fuel 60.00 1.7% 100.0%
Wind 41.60 1.2% 0.1%
Distillate Fuel Oil 3.00 0.1% 4.6%
Total 3,573.84
ERCOT Natural Gas 16,788.97 52.8% 22.0%
Wind 9,652.45 30.3% 12.5%
Nuclear 2,716.00 8.5% 9.5%
Coal 1,500.00 4.7% 25.2%
Solar 890.00 2.8% 2.0%
Waste Heat 266.00 0.8% 55.3%
Biomass Liquid 9.00 0.0% 100.0%
Total 31,822.42
FRCC Natural Gas 3,493.77 42.1% 4.6%
Nuclear 3,000.00 36.1% 10.5%
Solar 1,292.85 15.6% 2.8%
Wood 459.60 5.5% 37.9%
Waste 13.00 0.2% 3.7%
Hydro 26.30 0.3% 0.1%
Landfill Gas 9.00 0.1% 4.6%
Other 4.40 0.1% 1.3%
Total 8,298.92
HCC Wind 565.00 63.2% 0.7%
Geothermal 100.00 11.2% 4.5%
Solar 72.00 8.1% 0.2%
Liquified Natural Gas 50.63 5.7% 100.0%
Agricultural Byproduct 50.00 5.6% 79.2%
Landfill Gas 15.00 1.7% 7.6%
Hydro 12.50 1.4% 0.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil 10.00 1.1% 15.4%
Waste 7.30 0.8% 2.1%
Biomass Solid 6.00 0.7% 4.5%
Wood 4.98 0.6% 0.4%
Total 893.41
continued on next page
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 36
Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 35)
Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s
New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity
MRO Wind 12,826.00 75.3% 16.6%
Natural Gas 3,325.52 19.5% 4.4%
Coal 375.00 2.2% 6.3%
Solar 361.75 2.1% 0.8%
Hydro 67.37 0.4% 0.2%
Wood 40.00 0.2% 3.3%
Biomass Solid 30.00 0.2% 22.5%
Biomass Gas 2.70 0.0% 4.2%
Landfill Gas 1.60 0.0% 0.8%
Total 17,029.94
NPCC Natural Gas 6,338.85 49.2% 8.3%
Wind 5,011.77 38.9% 6.5%
Residual Fuel Oil 632.40 4.9% 100.0%
Hydro 416.86 3.2% 1.0%
Solar 384.52 3.0% 0.8%
Wood 97.90 0.8% 8.1%
Other 4.80 0.0% 1.4%
Landfill Gas 4.80 0.0% 2.4%
Waste 3.20 0.0% 0.9%
Biomass Gas 1.00 0.0% 1.6%
Total 12,896.10
RFC Natural Gas 22,021.79 52.5% 28.8%
Wind 9,101.40 21.7% 11.8%
Nuclear 4,750.00 11.3% 16.7%
Hydro 3,823.76 9.1% 9.6%
Coal 1,266.00 3.0% 21.2%
Solar 478.30 1.1% 1.0%
Waste Heat 160.00 0.4% 33.3%
Waste 100.50 0.2% 28.5%
Blast Furnace Gas 100.00 0.2% 16.7%
Wood 82.50 0.2% 6.8%
Landfill Gas 34.00 0.1% 17.3%
Biomass Gas 14.00 0.0% 21.9%
Biomass Other 8.00 0.0% 14.9%
Biomass Solid 6.40 0.0% 4.8%
Distillate Fuel Oil 5.90 0.0% 9.1%
Other 3.00 0.0% 0.9%
Total 41,955.55
continued on next page
America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 37
SERC Wind 8,870.35 28.1% 11.5%
Natural Gas 7,154.20 22.7% 9.4%
Nuclear 5,065.00 16.1% 17.8%
Hydro 4,666.03 14.8% 11.7%
Solar 4,358.06 13.8% 9.6%
Blast Furnace Gas 500.00 1.6% 83.3%
Wood 467.00 1.5% 38.5%
Waste 210.40 0.7% 59.7%
Waste Heat 65.00 0.2% 13.5%
Biomass Solid 61.43 0.2% 46.0%
Distillate Fuel Oil 46.05 0.1% 70.9%
Biomass Other 45.60 0.1% 85.1%
Landfill Gas 12.10 0.0% 6.2%
Other 8.80 0.0% 2.6%
Biomass Gas 3.12 0.0% 4.9%
Total 31,533.14
SPP Wind 7,138.52 60.1% 9.3%
Nuclear 2,700.00 22.7% 9.5%
Natural Gas 1,176.76 9.9% 1.5%
Hydro 794.92 6.7% 2.0%
Solar 62.80 0.5% 0.1%
Total 11,873.00
WECC Solar 37,661.03 31.4% 82.7%
Hydro 26,795.33 22.3% 67.3%
Wind 23,847.80 19.9% 30.9%
Natural Gas 16,141.38 13.4% 21.1%
Nuclear 10,240.00 8.5% 36.0%
Geothermal 2,032.70 1.7% 90.6%
Coal 2,701.00 2.3% 45.3%
Other 317.59 0.3% 93.8%
Landfill Gas 119.97 0.1% 61.1%
Wood 61.80 0.1% 5.1%
Biomass Gas 43.10 0.0% 67.4%
Biomass Solid 29.80 0.0% 22.3%
Agricultural Byproduct 19.44 0.0% 30.8%
Waste 18.20 0.0% 5.2%
Total 120,029.14 .
Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 36)
Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s
New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity

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America’s Electricity Generation Capacity

  • 1. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update NATURAL GAS NUCLEAR HYDRO OTHERWIND COALSOLAR
  • 2. The American Public Power Association represents not-for-profit, community-owned electric utilities that power homes, businesses and streets in nearly 2,000 towns and cities, serving 48 million Americans. More at www.PublicPower.org. © 2015 American Public Power Association www.PublicPower.org Contact MediaRelations@PublicPower.org or 202.467.2900
  • 3. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update Prepared by Paul Zummo, Manager, Policy Research and Analysis American Public Power Association Published April 2015
  • 4. Table of Contents Executive Summary Section 1 Current Generation Capacity ....................................... 1 Section 2 Future Generating Capacity: Fuel Mix .......................... 6 Section 3 Future Generating Capacity: Development Stages....... 9 Section 4 Future Generating Capacity: Regional Mix ................. 14 Section 5 Future Generating Capacity: Ownership Type ............ 19 Section 6 Generating Capacity: Retirements and Cancellations .................................. 21 Section 7 Conclusion ................................................................ 30 Appendix 1 Regions..................................................................... 31 Appendix 2 Regional Fuel Mix ...................................................... 32
  • 5. Executive Summary The American Public Power Association presents the ninth annual report on current and imminent electricity generation capacity in America by types of fuel, location, and ownership type. Currently, America has just over 1.1 million megawatts of generation capacity. The largest fuel source is natural gas, accounting for nearly 42 percent of all generation capacity. Coal, with a share of nearly 28 percent of capacity, is the second largest generation source. Nuclear, hydro, and wind together account for 23 percent of capacity. Solar currently constitutes less than one percent of all capacity. This report analyzes prospective generation capacity in four categories — under construction, permitted, application pending, and proposed. Nearly 372,000 MW of new generation capacity is under development in the United States — 92,000 MW under construction or permitted, and just under 280,000 MW proposed or pending application. Natural gas will continue to be the top fuel source in the near and distant future, followed by wind. A growing amount of generating capacity is expected to be fueled by solar. In fact, solar constitutes just over 10 percent of all capacity for plants under construction and that have permits to start building. While the Southeast has the most generation currently, with 25 percent of the nation’s total capacity, the Western region is slated to add the most generation, projecting more than 144,000 MW new capacity. This report also provides information on retirements and planned retirements, cancellations, and capacity that has been added over the past eight years. The report approximates what the U.S. capacity mix will look like by the end of 2020. Natural gas will continue to be the leading resource. While the overall capacity mix in the United States will change, it will do so at a gradual pace. Coal and other traditional forms of electric generation are being displaced by wind, solar, and other forms of renewable generation. Environmental regulations as well as the speed at which certain resources can be developed might spur more significant changes. However, the overall fuel mix five years from now will not be dramatically different from the current mix. Source: Data analyzed for this report was taken from the Ventyx Velocity Suite database, accessed January 2015. Natural Gas 41.88% Coal 27.81% Other 6.33% Nuclear 9.21% Hydro 8.42% Wind 5.44% Solar 0.91% 2015 Generation Capacity 2020 Potential Generation Capacity Natural Gas 43.04% Coal 24.27% Nuclear 9.35% Hydro 8.15% Other 6.08% Solar1.66% Wind 7.45%
  • 6. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 1 Section 1 Current Generation Capacity TABLE 1.1 shows the sources from which electricity is currently generated in America. Current nameplate capacity includes capacity labeled as standby, but not mothballed or out of service. TABLE 1.1 2015 Current Electricity Generation Capacity, by Fuel Type Primary Fuel Type Current Nameplate Capacity (MW) Share Natural Gas ....................................489,327.93 ...............41.88% Coal...............................................324,908.24 ...............27.81% Nuclear ..........................................107,548.64 .................9.21% Hydro...............................................98,381.72 .................8.42% Wind................................................63,588.62 .................5.44% Distillate Fuel Oil...............................25,030.22 .................2.14% Residual Fuel Oil...............................18,401.80 .................1.58% Solar................................................10,595.40 .................0.91% Wood .................................................4,988.27 .................0.43% Wood Waste Liquids............................4,790.95 .................0.41% Geothermal ........................................3,869.45 .................0.33% Petroleum Coke .................................2,774.20 .................0.24% Waste ................................................2,697.75 .................0.23% Landfill Gas ........................................2,561.60 .................0.22% Kerosene............................................2,185.70 .................0.19% Other Gas...........................................2,042.80 .................0.17% Waste Heat.........................................1,131.11 .................0.10% Blast Furnace Gas..................................929.60 .................0.08% Jet Fuel Oil............................................537.94 .................0.05% Purchased Steam...................................419.40 .................0.04% Agricultural Byproduct............................392.50 .................0.03% Other ....................................................383.24 .................0.03% Biomass Gas .........................................354.51 .................0.03% Biomass Solid........................................220.86 .................0.02% Biomass Liquid ......................................126.69 .................0.01% Oil Other................................................119.91 .................0.01% Biomass Other...........................................5.96 .................0.00% Multi-fuel...................................................4.00 .................0.00% Propane ....................................................1.63 .................0.00% Total 1,168,320.63 100.00% Natural Gas 41.88% Coal 27.81% Other 6.33% Nuclear 9.21% Hydro 8.42% Wind 5.44% Solar 0.91%
  • 7. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 2 TABLE 1.2 shows how America’s current generation capacity is distributed through the various regions defined by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. TABLE 1.2 2015 Current Electricity Generation Capacity, by Region Region* Nameplate Capacity (MW) Share SERC .............................................300,748.59 .................25.7% RFC................................................248,602.41 .................21.3% WECC ............................................224,848.06 .................19.2% ERCOT ...........................................101,404.30 ...................8.7% NPCC...............................................82,326.60 ...................7.0% SPP..................................................72,112.04 ...................6.2% MRO ................................................66,759.84 ...................5.7% FRCC ...............................................65,696.33 ...................5.6% HCC...................................................2,923.05 ...................0.3% ASCC.................................................2,899.41 ...................0.2% Total 1,168,320.63 100.0% * Regions Defined by NERC ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating Council (not shown on map) FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council (not shown on map) NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization RFC: Reliability First Corporation SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability Council SPP: Southwest Power Pool TRE: Texas Reliability Entity WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating Council
  • 8. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 3 As seen in TABLE 1.3, over 177,000 MW of current generation capacity was added between 2008 and 2014. Nearly three-quarters of this new capacity is fueled by natural gas or wind, with another 12 percent coming from coal. TABLE 1.3 Generation Capacity Additions, 2008 – 2014 Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share Capacity (MW) Natural Gas ......................................74,874.56..................42.2% Wind................................................56,641.15..................31.9% Coal.................................................20,557.70..................11.6% Solar................................................11,087.53....................6.2% Hydro.................................................5,962.82....................3.4% Wood .................................................1,420.47....................0.8% Landfill Gas ........................................1,136.34....................0.6% Petroleum Coke ..................................1,048.20....................0.6% Other Gas...........................................1,020.10....................0.6% Geothermal............................................787.29....................0.4% Distillate Fuel Oil....................................753.22....................0.4% Waste Heat............................................501.29....................0.3% Wood Waste Liquid ................................478.30....................0.3% Kerosene...............................................440.00....................0.2% Blast Furnace Gas..................................171.00....................0.1% Biomass Gas .........................................165.67....................0.1% Biomass Solid........................................124.98....................0.1% Biomass Liquid ......................................124.09....................0.1% Residual Fuel Oil......................................42.00....................0.0% Waste ...................................................36.10....................0.0% Agricultural Byproduct..............................23.02....................0.0% Other ....................................................10.70....................0.0% Biomass Other.........................................10.56....................0.0% Other Oil....................................................9.20....................0.0% Jet Fuel ....................................................5.20....................0.0% Propane ....................................................1.63....................0.0% Purchased Steam.......................................1.00....................0.0% Total 177,434.11 Natural Gas 42.2% Coal 11.6% Other 4.7% Hydro 3.4% Wind 31.9% Solar 6.2%
  • 9. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 4 TABLE 1.4 shows that in 2014 alone, over 17,000 MW of generation began operating, with natural gas, wind, and solar accounting for 83 percent of the new capacity. TABLE 1.4 Generation Capacity Additions, 2014 Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share Capacity (MW) Natural Gas ........................................6,651.87..................38.2% Wind..................................................4,932.94..................28.4% Solar..................................................2,865.74..................16.5% Hydro.................................................1,397.00....................8.0% Other Gas..............................................839.80....................4.8% Coal......................................................266.20....................1.5% Wood ....................................................111.50....................0.6% Landfill Gas .............................................92.61....................0.5% Geothermal..............................................84.50....................0.5% Wood Waste Liquids.................................80.60....................0.5% Distillate Fuel Oil......................................48.05....................0.3% Biomass Gas ...........................................10.15....................0.1% Other ......................................................6.50....................0.0% Waste Heat................................................5.00....................0.0% Biomass Other...........................................2.80....................0.0% Biomass Solid............................................1.30....................0.0% Purchased Steam.......................................1.00....................0.0% Total 17,397.57 100.0% Natural Gas 38.2% Coal 1.5% Other 7.4% Hydro 8% Wind 28.4% Solar 16.5%
  • 10. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 5 FIGURE 1.1 shows capacity additions between 2008 and 2014, with the fuel mix installed. With the exception of 2012, natural gas has been the leading fuel source added each year, and often by a fairly wide margin. Of note is the growth in solar capacity added —from 80 MW in 2008 to 2,866 MW in 2014. FIGURE 1.1 New Generation Installed, 2008-2014 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 MWCapacity New Generation Installed, 2008-2014 Other Hydro Solar Coal Wind Natural Gas
  • 11. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 6 TABLE 2.1 Plants Under Construction, Fuel Type Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share Natural Gas ......................................18,741.69..................43.0% Wind................................................14,685.70..................33.7% Nuclear ..............................................5,737.90..................13.2% Solar..................................................2,847.65....................6.5% Hydro....................................................428.68....................1.0% Coal......................................................320.00....................0.7% Waste ...................................................278.20....................0.6% Other .................................................105.00....................0.2% Wood ......................................................88.56....................0.2% Biomass Solid..........................................77.50....................0.2% Wood Waste Liquids.................................62.00....................0.1% Distillate Fuel Oil......................................37.50....................0.1% Waste Heat..............................................37.23....................0.1% Landfill Gas .............................................33.30....................0.1% Geothermal..............................................30.18....................0.1% Other Gas................................................17.00....................0.0% Refuse ....................................................15.79....................0.0% Biomass Gas .............................................5.60....................0.0% Biomass Other...........................................1.60....................0.0% Total 43,551.06 100.0% Section 2 Future Generating Capacity: Fuel Mix Tables 2.1 – 2.4 show the fuel makeup of America’s future generation capacity. TABLE 2.1 shows the sources for the 43,551 MW of generation capacity under construction. Natural gas and wind account for over three-quarters of the capac- ity under construction. Three major nuclear operations in the Southeast account for all nuclear capacity under construction. Natural Gas 43% Coal 0.7% Other 1.9% Hydro 1% Wind 33.7% Solar 6.5% Nuclear 13.2%
  • 12. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 7 TABLE 2.2 shows the fuel makeup for plants that have received permits to construct 48,551 MW of capacity overall but that have not yet started construction. Natural gas is the leading resource choice for permitted plants, accounting for over half of the new capacity. Wind is second and accounts for nearly a quarter of potential capacity. TABLE 2.2 Permitted Plants, Fuel Type Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share Natural Gas ......................................25,024.50..................51.5% Wind................................................11,901.28..................24.5% Solar..................................................6,517.65..................13.4% Coal...................................................2,855.00....................5.9% Geothermal............................................740.90....................1.5% Other ....................................................587.00....................1.2% Hydro....................................................477.74....................1.0% Wood ....................................................298.90....................0.6% Biomass Gas ...........................................50.00....................0.1% Agricultural Byproduct..............................49.90....................0.1% Distillate Fuel Oil......................................26.00....................0.1% Waste .....................................................12.00....................0.0% Landfill Gas .............................................10.31....................0.0% Total 48,551.18 100.0% TABLE 2.3 Pending Application Plants, Fuel Type Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share Natural Gas ......................................32,246.37..................40.5% Solar................................................15,269.13..................19.2% Nuclear ............................................12,516.00..................15.7% Wind................................................11,067.91..................13.9% Hydro.................................................5,923.00....................7.4% Coal...................................................1,417.00....................1.8% Geothermal............................................408.00....................0.5% Waste Heat............................................361.00....................0.5% Wood ....................................................194.30....................0.2% Waste .....................................................69.80....................0.1% Liquefied Natural Gas...............................50.63....................0.1% Agricultural Byproduct..............................50.00....................0.1% Landfill Gas .............................................33.33....................0.0% Distillate Fuel Oil......................................11.00....................0.0% Biomass Solid............................................5.00....................0.0% Total 79,622.47 100.0% TABLE 2.3 shows the fuel mix for the 79,622 MW of capacity awaiting approval of applications. Natural gas is the leading resource choice, accounting for over 40 percent of the capacity. Solar is second, accounting for 19 percent of the capacity.
  • 13. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 8 TABLE 2.4 Proposed Plants, Fuel Type Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share Wind................................................65,986.98..................32.9% Natural Gas ......................................44,194.86..................22.1% Hydro...............................................33,919.32..................16.9% Solar................................................30,292.19..................15.1% Nuclear ............................................15,955.00....................8.0% Coal...................................................4,545.00....................2.3% Geothermal.........................................1,834.70....................0.9% Wood .................................................1,019.48....................0.5% Residual Fuel Oil....................................632.40....................0.3% Blast Furnace Gas..................................600.00....................0.3% Other ....................................................338.59....................0.2% Waste ...................................................282.80....................0.1% Landfill Gas ...........................................163.14....................0.1% Biomass Solid........................................128.63....................0.1% Waste Heat............................................120.00....................0.1% Biomass Gas ...........................................63.92....................0.0% Jet Fuel...................................................60.00....................0.0% Distillate Fuel Oil......................................53.95....................0.0% Biomass Other.........................................53.60....................0.0% Agricultural Byproduct..............................19.44....................0.0% Biomass Liquid ..........................................9.00....................0.0% Total 200,272.98 100.0% TABLE 2.4 shows the resource mix for the 200,273 MW of capacity still in the planning stages. This is the earliest and most uncertain stage of development, and includes units that are least likely to be built. Wind power accounts for approximately one-third of planned capacity with natural gas, hydro, and solar accounting for the bulk of the remaining capacity. Natural Gas 22.1% Coal 2.3% Other 2.7% Nuclear 8% Hydro 16.9% Wind 32.9% Solar 15.1%
  • 14. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 9 FIGURE 3.1 tracks the major fuel sources in each stage of development. Natural gas is the dominant fuel choice in the first three stages — under construction, permitted, and pending application. Wind becomes dominant in the proposed capacity stage. Figure 1 also shows that the resource mix is more balanced in the earlier stages of development. Section 3 Future Generating Capacity: Development Stages FIGURE 3.1 Share of Fuel Type: Stage of Development, 2015 0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   Under  Construc5on   Permi9ed   Pending  Applica5on   Proposed   Percent  Share   Share  of  Fuel  Type:  Stage  of  Development,    2015   Coal   Natural  Gas   Nuclear   Wind   Hydro   Solar   Other        
  • 15. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 10 FIGURES 3.2 – 3.5 demonstrate how the fuel mix outlook has changed from 2007 to 2015. FIGURE 3.2 Share of Fuel Type: Plants Under Construction, 2007-2015 FIGURE 3.2 shows the capacity under construction. The most notable development is the steep decline in coal under construction — from over 40 percent in 2009 to just above 1 percent in 2014. Wind capacity under construction has increased from 12 percent in 2007 to over 34 percent in 2015. Natural gas has been by far the most popular resource in the under construction category from 2007 to 2015. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PercentShare Figure 3.2 Share of Fuel Type: Plants Under Construction, 2007-2015 Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Wind Hydro Solar Other
  • 16. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 11 FIGURE 3.3 Share of Fuel Type: Permitted Plants, 2007-2015 FIGURES 3.3 – 3.4 track fuel types in the permitted and pending application categories, which show some major fluctuations in the first few years and then become relatively steady. Coal has declined precipitously — from 50 percent to 6 percent in the permitted category, and from 48 percent to 2 percent in the application pending category. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PercentShare Figure 3.3 Share of Fuel Type: Permitted Plants, 2007-2015 Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Wind Hydro Solar Other
  • 17. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 12 FIGURE 3.4 Share of Fuel Type: Application Pending, 2007-2015 As seen in FIGURE 3.4, the fuel mix in the application pending category varies most widely, with different fuels like wind, solar, and nuclear emerging in recent years.
  • 18. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 13 FIGURE 3.5 Share of Fuel Type: Proposed Plants, 2007-2015 FIGURE 3.5 shows the steep decline in coal for proposed plants, paralleled by the growth in wind, solar, and natural gas. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PercentShare Figure 3.5 Share of Fuel Type: Proposed Plants, 2007-2015 Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Wind Hydro Solar Other
  • 19. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 14 TABLE 4.1 shows that four regions account for roughly three-quarters of the capacity under construction. TABLE 4.1 Plants Under Construction, by Region Region* Capacity (MW) Share SERC .................................................9,046.83..................20.8% RFC....................................................8,049.93..................18.5% WECC ................................................7,786.19..................17.9% ERCOT ...............................................7,236.29..................16.6% SPP....................................................4,348.25..................10.0% MRO ..................................................3,748.10....................8.6% FRCC .................................................2,591.03....................5.9% ASCC....................................................333.50....................0.8% NPCC....................................................329.80....................0.8% HCC........................................................81.14....................0.2% Total 43,551.06 100.0% Section 4 Future Generating Capacity: Regional Mix TABLES 4.1 – 4.4 show where the new plants are being built or planned for construction by North American Electric Reliability Corporation regions. (See Appendix 1 for definition of regions and included states and Appendix 2 for the fuel mix for each region.) * Regions Defined by NERC ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating Council (not shown on map) FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council (not shown on map) NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization RFC: Reliability First Corporation SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability Council SPP: Southwest Power Pool TRE: Texas Reliability Entity WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating Council
  • 20. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 15 TABLE 4.2 shows that the Western Electricity Coordinat- ing Council region has over 30 percent of the permitted capacity. TABLE 4.2 Permitted Plants, by Region Region* Capacity (MW) Share WECC ..............................................17,142.83..................35.3% ERCOT .............................................12,027.60..................24.8% RFC....................................................4,974.50..................10.2% SERC .................................................4,429.67....................9.1% NPCC.................................................4,368.97....................9.0% MRO ..................................................2,549.40....................5.3% SPP....................................................2,093.80....................4.3% FRCC ....................................................593.00....................1.2% ASCC....................................................339.70....................0.7% HCC........................................................31.72....................0.1% Total 48,551.19 100.0% * Regions Defined by NERC ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating Council (not shown on map) FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council (not shown on map) NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization RFC: Reliability First Corporation SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability Council SPP: Southwest Power Pool TRE: Texas Reliability Entity WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating Council
  • 21. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 16 TABLES 4.3 and 4.4 show plants in the pending application and proposed categories, in both of which WECC has far more potential capacity than any other region. TABLE 4.3 Pending Application Plants, by Region Region* Capacity (MW) Share WECC ..............................................34,329.53..................43.1% ERCOT .............................................17,377.22..................21.8% RFC..................................................12,415.60..................15.6% SERC .................................................6,856.88....................8.6% NPCC.................................................4,002.67....................5.0% FRCC .................................................3,060.00....................3.8% MRO ..................................................1,052.04....................1.3% SPP.......................................................261.80....................0.3% HCC......................................................197.93....................0.2% ASCC......................................................68.80....................0.1% Total 79,622.47 100.0% TABLE 4.4 Proposed Plants, by Region Region* Capacity (MW) Share WECC ..............................................85,699.61..................42.8% RFC..................................................29,539.95..................14.7% SERC ...............................................24,666.25..................12.3% MRO ................................................15,977.90....................8.0% ERCOT .............................................14,445.20....................7.2% SPP..................................................11,611.20....................5.8% NPCC.................................................8,893.43....................4.4% FRCC .................................................5,238.92....................2.6% ASCC.................................................3,505.04....................1.8% HCC......................................................695.48....................0.3% Total 200,272.98 100.0% * Regions Defined by NERC ASCC: Alaska Systems Coordinating Council (not shown on map) FRCC: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council HCC: Hawaii Coordinating Council (not shown on map) NPCC: Northeast Power Coordinating Council MRO: Midwest Reliability Organization RFC: Reliability First Corporation SERC: Southeastern Electric Reliability Council SPP: Southwest Power Pool TRE: Texas Reliability Entity WECC: Western Electricity Coordinating Council
  • 22. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 17 TABLES 4.5 and 4.6 show the fuels of choice for proposed capacity by development stage. As seen in TABLE 4.5, for plants most certain to be built — those already under construction or permitted — natural gas and wind account for over 76 percent of the capacity, with solar contributing another 10 percent. Nearly half of the capacity under construction and permitted is in WECC and Electric Reliability Council of Texas regions, with another 28.7 percent in Reliability First Corporation and Southeastern Electric Reliability Council regions. Natural gas is the primary resource in the ERCOT and RFC regions as well as in the Florida Reliability Coordinating Council and Northeast Power Coordinating Council regions. In each of these four regions, natural gas accounts for at least two-thirds of future capacity. There is a general increase in planned solar capacity. Just under 88 percent of solar capacity in the permitted and under construction stages is located in the WECC region. Four regions account for nearly 85 percent of new wind capacity — ERCOT and WECC as well as the Midwest Reliability Organization and Southwest Power Pool regions. TABLE 4.5 Plants Under Construction and Permitted, by Fuel Type Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share Natural Gas ......................................43,766.19..................47.5% Wind................................................26,586.98..................28.9% Solar..................................................9,365.29..................10.2% Nuclear ..............................................5,737.90....................6.2% Coal...................................................3,175.00....................3.4% Hydro....................................................906.42....................1.0% Geothermal............................................771.08....................0.8% Other ....................................................692.00....................0.8% Wood ....................................................387.46....................0.4% Waste ...................................................290.20....................0.3% Biomass Solid..........................................77.50....................0.1% Distillate Fuel Oil......................................63.50....................0.1% Wood Waste Liquids.................................62.00....................0.1% Biomass Gas ...........................................55.60....................0.1% Agricultural Byproduct..............................49.90....................0.1% Landfill Gas .............................................43.61....................0.0% Waste Heat..............................................37.23....................0.0% Other Gas................................................17.00....................0.0% Refuse ....................................................15.79....................0.0% Biomass Other...........................................1.60....................0.0% Total 92,102.24 100.0% Natural Gas 47.5% Coal 3.4% Other 2.8% Hydro 1% Wind 28.9% Solar 10.2% Nuclear 6.2%
  • 23. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 18 As seen in TABLE 4.6, for plants in the more distant future — those that are proposed or pending application — the fuel mix tends more toward wind and other renewable resources, compared to plants that are scheduled to come online in the near future. There is almost as much natural gas capacity as wind in these stages. TABLE 4.6 Proposed and Application Pending Plants, by Fuel Type Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share Wind................................................77,054.89..................27.5% Natural Gas ......................................76,441.23..................27.3% Solar................................................45,561.32..................16.3% Hydro...............................................39,842.31..................14.2% Nuclear ............................................28,471.00..................10.2% Coal...................................................5,962.00....................2.1% Geothermal.........................................2,242.70....................0.8% Wood .................................................1,213.78....................0.4% Residual Fuel Oil....................................632.40....................0.2% Blast Furnace Gas..................................600.00....................0.2% Waste Heat............................................481.00....................0.2% Waste ...................................................352.60....................0.1% Other ....................................................338.59....................0.1% Landfill Gas ...........................................196.47....................0.1% Biomass Solid........................................133.63....................0.0% Distillate Fuel Oil......................................64.95....................0.0% Biomass Gas ...........................................63.92....................0.0% Agricultural Byproduct..............................63.14....................0.0% Jet Fuel...................................................60.00....................0.0% Biomass Other.........................................53.60....................0.0% Liquefied Natural Gas...............................50.63....................0.0% Biomass Liquid ..........................................9.00....................0.0% Total 279,889.15 100.0% Wind is slated to account for twenty percent or more of new capacity in all but the Alaska and Florida regions and is the leading resource in four regions. Nearly 83 percent of the proposed or application pending solar capacity is locat- ed in WECC, a region that accounts for much of the future renewable capacity, and for nearly half of all capacity in the proposed and application pending stages. Other forms of renewable energy, particularly wood, waste, and waste heat, are more dispersed through the various regions. Natural Gas 27.3% Coal 2.1% Other 2.4% Hydro 14.2% Wind 27.5% Solar 16.3% Nuclear 10.2%
  • 24. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 19 Section 5 Future Generating Capacity: Ownership Type Analysis of future generation capacity by ownership is summarized in Tables 5.1 – 5.4. TABLE 5.1 shows that for plants under construction, most of the capacity is owned by non-utility generators, while regulated utilities collectively account for over 40 percent of the capacity. TABLE 5.1 Plants Under Construction, by Ownership Utility Type Capacity (MW) Share Investor Owned.................................11,052.99..................25.4% Public Power ......................................4,597.56..................10.6% Federal...............................................1,290.40....................3.0% Co-op....................................................979.18....................2.2% Regulated Total..............................17,920.13..................41.1% Non-utility Generators .......................25,630.93..................58.9% Total 43,551.06 100.0% TABLE 5.2 Permitted Plants, by Ownership Ownership Capacity (MW) Share Investor Owned ..................................2,172.67 ...................4.5% Co-op.................................................1,915.00 ...................3.9% Public Power ......................................1,179.60 ...................2.4% Federal....................................................15.00 ...................0.0% Regulated Total................................5,282.27..................10.9% Non-utility Generators .......................43,268.92..................89.1% Total 48,551.19 100.0% Public Power 10.6% Co-op 2.2% Federal 3% Non-utility Generators 58.9% Investor Owned 25.4% Public Power 2.4% Co-op 3.9% Non-utility Generators 89.1% Investor Owned 4.5%
  • 25. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 20 TABLE 5.3 Pending Application Plants, by Ownership Ownership Capacity (MW) Share Investor Owned...................................9,368.13 .................14.1% Co-op.................................................2,148.47 ...................3.2% Public Power ......................................1,571.59 ...................2.4% Federal....................................................11.00 ...................0.0% Regulated Total..............................13,099.20 .................16.5% Non-utility Generators .......................66,523.28 .................83.5% Total 79,622.47 100.0% Of note in TABLE 5.4 is that for proposed plants, generation owned by public power has the largest share of capacity among utilities. TABLES 5.2 – 5.4 show that non-utility generators account for significant capacity in the earlier stages of development. TABLE 5.4 Proposed Plants, by Ownership Ownership Capacity (MW) Share Public Power ....................................12,375.95 ...................6.2% Investor Owned.................................10,897.47 ...................5.4% Federal...............................................4,940.50 ...................2.5% Co-op.................................................2,869.67 ...................1.4% Regulated Total..............................31,083.59 .................15.5% Non-utility Generators .....................169,189.40 .................84.5% Total 200,272.98 100.0% Public Power 6.2% Co-op 1.4% Federal 2.5% Non-utility Generators 84.5% Investor Owned 5.4% Public Power 2.4% Co-op 3.2% Non-utility Generators 83.5% Investor Owned 14.1%
  • 26. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 21 Section 6 Generating Capacity: Retirements and Cancellations TABLES 6.1 and 6.2 show generation capacity retire- ments by fuel type between 2008 and 2014, when just over 66,000 MW of capacity was retired. Over 77 per- cent of this retired capacity was natural gas or coal, and 14 percent was oil. More than 84 percent of the retired natural gas capacity used steam turbines. TABLE 6.1 Retired Plants by Fuel Type, 2008-2014 Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share Coal.................................................27,717.50..................41.6% Natural Gas ......................................23,487.80..................35.2% Residual Fuel Oil.................................6,308.10....................9.5% Nuclear ..............................................3,781.47....................5.7% Distillate Fuel Oil.................................3,022.79....................4.5% Hydro....................................................938.25....................1.4% Petroleum Coke .....................................323.50....................0.5% Wood Waste Liquid ................................187.30....................0.3% Blast Furnace Gas..................................171.20....................0.3% Wood ..................................................166.80....................0.3% Landfill Gas ...........................................150.20....................0.2% Wind.....................................................133.60....................0.2% Other ....................................................67.00....................0.1% Waste .....................................................44.70....................0.1% Geothermal..............................................40.20....................0.1% Other Gas................................................37.50....................0.1% Purchased Steam.....................................37.00....................0.1% Jet Fuel...................................................17.40....................0.0% Biomass Liquid ........................................15.80....................0.0% Biomass Gas .............................................7.00....................0.0% Solar.........................................................3.50....................0.0% Other Oil....................................................3.00....................0.0% Total 66,661.61 100.0% Natural Gas 35.2% Coal 41.6% Nuclear 5.7% Hydro 1.4% Wind 0.2% Other 15.9%
  • 27. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 22 TABLE 6.2 Retired Plants by Fuel Type, 2014 Primary Fuel Capacity (MW) Share Coal...................................................4,509.60 .................61.4% Natural Gas ........................................1,534.30 .................20.9% Residual Fuel Oil....................................490.50 ...................6.7% Distillate Fuel Oil....................................254.95 ...................3.5% Hydro....................................................212.50 ...................2.9% Petroleum Coke .....................................184.00 ...................2.5% Wood Waste Liquids.................................88.70 ...................1.2% Wind.......................................................63.60 ...................0.9% Landfill Gas .............................................10.60 ...................0.1% Jet Fuel.....................................................1.20 ...................0.0% Total 7,349.95 100.0% More than 7,000 MW of capacity was retired in 2014 alone, of which coal accounted for over 60 percent. Over 54,000 MW of current operating capacity is scheduled to retire by 2020, two-thirds of which is coal. Almost all planned natural gas retirements are powered by steam or gas combustion turbines. TABLE 6.3 reflects planned retirements that have been publicly announced. TABLE 6.3 Planned Retirements to 2020, by Fuel Type Primary Fuel Type Capacity (MW) % Planned Retirement Capacity Coal.................................................35,419.20 .................65.1% Natural Gas ......................................13,987.30 .................25.7% Residual Fuel Oil.................................1,465.20 ...................2.7% Distillate Fuel Oil.................................1,240.70 ...................2.3% Hydro.................................................1,018.00 ...................1.9% Nuclear .................................................550.00 ...................1.0% Kerosene...............................................418.50 ...................0.8% Wind.....................................................279.35 ...................0.5% Landfill Gas .............................................22.30 ...................0.0% Biomass Gas .............................................3.50 ...................0.0% Total 54,404.05 100.0% s Natural Gas 25.7% Coal 65.1% Other 5.8%Hydro 1.9% Wind 0.5% Nuclear 1%
  • 28. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 23 TABLE 6.4 Plant Cancellations, 2014 Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share Capacity (MW) Wind................................................28,226.05..................54.0% Solar................................................15,749.02..................30.1% Natural Gas ........................................3,404.77....................6.5% Hydro.................................................2,820.42....................5.4% Geothermal............................................902.00....................1.7% Coal......................................................478.50....................0.9% Waste ...................................................262.80....................0.5% Wood ....................................................242.60....................0.5% Landfill Gas .............................................81.44....................0.2% Biomass Gas ...........................................49.00....................0.1% Other Gas................................................10.00....................0.0% Biomass Solid............................................8.60....................0.0% Distillate Fuel Oil........................................2.98....................0.0% Total 52,238.16 100.0% More than 52,000 MW of planned capacity additions was canceled in 2014, nearly triple the amount of capacity added to the grid. Wind and solar constituted 84 percent of this canceled capacity.
  • 29. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 24 TABLE 6.5 Plant Cancellations, 2008-2014 Primary Fuel Type Nameplate Share Capacity (MW) Wind 124,583.27 33.0% Coal.................................................55,838.50..................14.8% Natural Gas ......................................54,026.96..................14.3% Hydro...............................................53,542.85..................14.2% Solar................................................50,870.05..................13.5% Nuclear ............................................23,130.00....................6.1% Petroleum Coke ..................................5,060.20....................1.3% Wood .................................................3,540.03....................0.9% Geothermal.........................................1,700.00....................0.4% Other Gas...........................................1,646.00....................0.4% Biomass Gas ......................................1,198.05....................0.3% Waste ...................................................716.30....................0.2% Other ..................................................681.20....................0.2% Biomass Gas .........................................469.60....................0.1% Landfill Gas ...........................................327.52....................0.1% Agricultural Byproduct............................280.32....................0.1% Waste Heat............................................125.80....................0.0% Biomass Gas ...........................................96.04....................0.0% Kerosene.................................................49.20....................0.0% Biomass Other.........................................30.00....................0.0% Distillate Fuel Oil......................................21.98....................0.0% Wood Waste Liquids...................................3.80....................0.0% Total 377,937.66 100.0% Since 2008, nearly 378,000 MW of planned capacity additions were ultimately canceled, more than double the amount that was actually added. Wind represents one-third of this canceled capacity. Nearly equal shares of coal, natural gas, hydro, and solar were also canceled during this time. Natural Gas 14.3% Solar 13.5% Coal 14.8% Other 4.1% Hydro 14.2% Wind 33% Nuclear 6.1%
  • 30. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 25 FIGURE 6.1 shows additions, cancellations, and retirements from 2008 to 2014. Natural gas is the only resource for which additions outnumber cancellations. For all other resources, far more capacity was cancelled than was added. FIGURE 6.1 Additions, Cancellations, and Retirements, 2008-2014
  • 31. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 26 continued on next page Impending environmental regulations have made coal capacity especially vulnerable to retirements, with nearly 37 gigawatts of existing capacity likely to retire by 2020.1 Some states have much more coal capacity at risk than others. Table 6.6 shows current coal capacity and planned retirements and additions in each state. In several states with large amounts of planned retirements, there is not a corresponding amount of capacity currently under construction or permitted. Conversely, several states have much more capacity under development than facing retirement. TABLE 6.6 compares coal to planned natural gas, wind, and total capacity additions. While natural gas additions will equal or exceed coal retirements in many states, added wind capacity will make up for coal retirements in other states. TABLE 6.6 Coal Retirements and Additions State Total Current Coal Anounced Planned Planned Planned Total Planned Capacity Capacity Coal Coal Natural Gas Wind Capacity (MW) (MW) Retirements Additions Additions Additions Additions (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) Alabama 34,408.63 11,797.20 2,594.20 62.00 Alaska 2,899.41 113.50 32.50 300.00 17.60 673.20 Arizona 31,554.59 6,690.80 1,092.00 1,050.00 51.00 2,010.30 Arkansas 16,789.69 5,287.00 1.80 California 80,610.12 238.70 115.50 4,460.20 911.10 10,933.99 Colorado 16,884.84 5,705.10 365.20 665.60 298.70 1,114.30 Connecticut 9,821.67 400.00 24.80 27.26 Delaware 3,255.94 442.40 309.20 309.20 District of Columbia 10.80 0.00 Florida 68,510.13 11,361.70 1,252.70 3,264.20 3,184.03 Georgia 42,111.66 13,444.20 2,441.90 850.00 760.00 4,105.76 Hawaii 3,027.45 203.00 112.86 Idaho 4,987.74 18.90 6.20 520.00 5.49 227.70 817.19 Illinois 51,822.09 17,355.80 1,218.40 571.00 1,202.40 1,820.66 Indiana 30,858.83 20,688.80 2,522.80 644.00 280.00 937.00 Iowa 17,263.00 7,168.41 689.80 870.00 1,557.05 2,482.05 Kansas 15,607.03 5,384.80 49.00 895.00 246.20 1,884.10 3,026.30 Kentucky 25,028.54 17,822.70 3,057.50 690.00 968.80 Louisiana 29,400.63 3,764.30 46.00 629.40 629.40 Maine 4,843.89 0.00 277.40 282.40 Maryland 13,676.60 5,139.20 1,328.40 866.00 190.00 1,219.00 Massachusetts 14,788.18 1,160.30 1,154.60 1,394.00 468.60 1,958.36 Michigan 33,485.33 12,339.90 2,429.70 143.90 134.40 279.34 Minnesota 17,933.74 5,353.90 785.50 1,274.50 1,274.50
  • 32. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 27 1 This total includes 35,419 MW of announced coal retirements plus an additional 1,500 MW of coal capacity that Ventyx estimates is likely to retire based on certain criteria. This does not include unannounced retirements and other coal capacity vulnerable to retirement if more stringent regulations are put in place. Mississippi 17,926.38 2,887.50 Missouri 23,643.37 12,878.00 365.10 27.60 31.51 Montana 6,530.70 2,676.60 240.00 255.00 Nebraska 9,378.85 4,274.00 73.50 303.90 303.90 Nevada 12,578.38 1,445.80 294.80 200.10 1,915.20 New Hampshire 4,896.07 559.20 50.00 8.55 8.55 New Jersey 20,457.76 2,003.00 2,105.00 2,171.80 New Mexico 8,811.89 3,741.20 924.00 815.00 904.07 New York 44,068.69 2,170.70 204.50 2,128.00 107.80 2,300.85 North Carolina 33,165.35 10,957.10 40.00 475.00 80.00 1,035.18 North Dakota 7,139.81 4,363.40 90.00 1,538.50 1,628.50 Ohio 34,971.12 19,498.50 3,154.80 2,754.00 1,054.29 3,811.69 Oklahoma 25,322.14 5,844.00 1,013.00 103.00, 1,713.55 1,816.55 Oregon 14,602.97 601.00 601.00 662.00 1,258.50 2,227.07 Pennsylvania 47,058.53 15,628.40 1,342.00 2,823.00 2,924.10 Rhode Island 2,074.35 0.00 45.00 45.23 South Carolina 24,579.45 6,277.70 366.00 750.00 3,019.00 South Dakota 4,242.20 456.00 402.05 402.05 Tennessee 23,923.65 9,210.70 2,511.20 1,303.50 Texas 122,043.07 25,354.80 558.00 240.00 13,924.70 6,084.40 21,186.09 Utah 8,940.77 5,218.89 296.10 5.90 140.00 545.90 Vermont 1,435.65 0.00 30.00 76.12 Virginia 28,268.67 5,890.20 593.00 1,358.00 1,391.70 Washington 31,500.66 1,459.80 729.90 267.00 417.00 West Virginia 17,213.39 15,019.93 1,802.70 52.50 110.50 Wisconsin 19,369.78 8,410.10 802.40 102.50 102.50 Wyoming 8,889.02 6,755.80 7.00 670 3,269.00 3,939.00 Total 1,172,613.18 325,462.93 36,910.90 3,175.00 44,075.39 26,511.98 92,102.24 TABLE 6.6 Coal Retirements and Additions (continued from page 26) State Total Current Coal Anounced Planned Planned Planned Total Planned Capacity Capacity Coal Coal Natural Gas Wind Capacity (MW) (MW) Retirements Additions Additions Additions Additions (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)
  • 33. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 28 TABLE 6.7 Net Potential Generation Capacity by 2020 TABLE 6.7 combines current operating capacity with planned capacity additions and retirements to demonstrate the shift in electricity generation in America by 2020. This table only includes plants permitted and under construction because proposed capacity is uncertain. Planned retirements and additions can and most likely will change. The table shows the continued prominence of natural gas-fired generation. Solar capacity does not require as much lead time to be developed as other fuels, so this table likely undercounts the amount of solar and wind capacity that will be online in the future. Primary Fuel Type Existing Percent Planned Existing Plus Planned Net Potential Percent Potential Nameplate Capacity Added Planned Retirements Cacpacity in Increase Percent Capacity in in 2015 Capacity Added by 2020 2020 (MW) in Capacity Capacity 2015 (MW) (MW) Capacity (MW) by 2020 in 2020 Natural Gas 489,327.93 41.88% 43,766.19 533,094.12 13,987.30 519,106.82 6.1% 43.04% Coal 324,908.24 27.81% 3,175.00 328,083.24 35,419.20 292,664.04 -9.9% 24.27% Nuclear 107,548.64 9.21% 5,737.90 113,286.54 550.00 112,736.54 4.8% 9.35% Hydro 98,381.72 8.42% 906.42 99,288.14 1,018.00 98,270.14 -0.1% 8.15% Wind 63,588.62 5.44% 26,586.98 90,175.60 279.35 89,896.25 41.4% 7.45% Distillate Fuel Oil 25,030.22 2.14% 63.50 25,093.72 1,240.70 23,853.02 -4.7% 1.98% Oil 18,401.80 1.58% 18,401.80 1,465.20 16,936.60 -8.0% 1.40% Solar 10,595.40 0.91% 9,365.29 19,960.70 19,960.70 88.4% 1.66% Wood 4,988.27 0.43% 387.46 5,375.72 5,375.72 7.8% 0.45% Wood Waste Liquids 4,790.95 0.41% 62.00 4,852.95 4,852.95 1.3% 0.40% Geothermal 3,869.45 0.33% 771.08 4,640.53 4,640.53 19.9% 0.38% Petroleum Coke 2,774.20 0.24% 2,774.20 2,774.20 0.0% 0.23% Waste 2,697.75 0.23% 290.20 2,987.95 2,987.95 10.8% 0.25% Landfill Gas 2,561.60 0.22% 43.61 2,605.21 22.30 2,582.91 0.8% 0.21% Kerosene 2,185.70 0.19% 2,185.70 418.50 1,767.20 -19.1% 0.15% Other Gas 2,042.80 0.17% 17.00 2,059.80 2,059.80 0.8% 0.17% Waste Heat 1,131.11 0.10% 37.23 1,168.34 1,168.34 3.3% 0.10% Blast Furnace Gas 929.60 0.08% 929.60 929.60 0.0% 0.08% Jet Fuel Oil 537.94 0.05% 537.94 537.94 0.0% 0.04% Purchased Steam 419.40 0.04% 419.40 419.40 0.0% 0.03% Agricultural Byproduct 392.50 0.03% 49.90 442.40 442.40 12.7% 0.04% Other 383.24 0.03% 707.79 1,091.03 1,091.03 184.7% 0.09% Biomass Gas 354.51 0.03% 55.60 410.11 3.50 406.61 14.7% 0.03% Biomass Solid 220.86 0.02% 77.50 298.36 298.36 35.1% 0.02% continued on page 29
  • 34. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 29 Biomass Liquid 126.69 0.01% 126.69 126.69 0.0% 0.01% Oil Other 119.91 0.01% 119.91 119.91 0.0% 0.01% Biomass Other 5.96 0.00% 1.60 7.56 7.56 26.8% 0.00% MultiFuel 4.00 0.00% 4.00 4.00 0.0% 0.00% Propane 1.63 0.00% 1.63 1.63 0.0% 0.00% Total 1,168,320.63 100.00% 92,102.24 1,260,422.87 54,404.05 1,206,018.82 3.2% 100.00% TABLE 6.7 Net Potential Generation Capacity by 2020 (continued from page 28) Primary Fuel Type Existing Percent Planned Existing Plus Planned Net Potential Percent Potential Nameplate Capacity Added Planned Retirements Cacpacity in Increase Percent Capacity in in 2015 Capacity Added by 2020 2020 (MW) in Capacity Capacity 2015 (MW) (MW) Capacity (MW) by 2020 in 2020 Natural Gas 43.04% Coal 24.27% Nuclear 9.35% Hydro 8.15% Other 6.08% Solar 1.66% Wind 7.45% 2020 Potential Generation Capacity
  • 35. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 30 The rate of new capacity additions has slowed over the past couple of years, but the trends in new capacity development have remained consistent. Natural gas continues to be the leading resource for current and future capacity, while wind and solar are making greater inroads into the nation’s overall electricity generation capacity. The data on cancellations and additions illustrates that while the overall capacity mix in the United States will change, it will do so at a gradual pace. Coal and other traditional forms of electric generation are being dis- placed by wind, solar, and other forms of renewable generation. Environmental regulations as well as the speed at which certain resources can be developed might spur more significant changes. However, the overall fuel mix five years hence will not be dramatically different from the current mix. Section 7 Conclusion
  • 36. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 31 Appendix 1 Regions This report uses regions defined by the North American Electric Reliability Council: ASCC - Alaska Systems Coordinating Council (not shown on map) FRCC – Florida Reliability Coordinating Council HCC – Hawaii Coordinating Council (not shown on map) NPCC - Northeast Power Coordinating Council MRO – Midwest Reliability Organization RFC – Reliability First Corporation SERC - Southeastern Electric Reliability Council SPP – Southwest Power Pool TRE – Texas Reliability Entity* WECC - Western Electricity Coordinating Council * The Independent System Operator that operates the electric grid for nearly all of the state of Texas is the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and is the name used for this region in the report. The Texas Reliability Entity (TRE) monitors and enforces compliance with reliability standards for NERC.
  • 37. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 32 ASCC Hydro 351.20 52.2% 38.7% Natural Gas 300.00 44.6% 0.7% Wind 17.60 2.6% 0.1% Distillate Fuel Oil 4.40 0.7% 6.9% Total 673.20 ERCOT Natural Gas 13,059.70 67.8% 29.8% Wind 5,334.20 27.7% 20.1% Other 332.00 1.7% 48.0% Coal 240.00 1.2% 7.6% Solar 219.20 1.1% 2.3% Wood 63.00 0.3% 16.3% Refuse 15.79 0.1% Total 19,263.89 FRCC Natural Gas 2,955.00 92.8% 6.8% Waste 95.00 3.0% 32.7% Solar 76.50 2.4% 0.8% Waste Heat 35.03 1.1% 94.1% Biomass Solid 18.50 0.6% 23.9% Biomass Gas 4.00 0.1% 7.2% Total 3,184.03 HCC Solar 50.59 44.8% 0.5% Biomass Solid 28.00 24.8% 36.1% Hydro 14.72 13.0% 1.6% Waste 12.00 10.6% 4.1% Wood 7.56 6.7% 1.9% Total 112.86 MRO Wind 5,282.50 83.9% 19.9% Natural Gas 960.00 15.2% 2.2% Hydro 55.00 0.9% 6.1% Total 6,297.50 Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity Appendix 2 Regional Fuel Mix continued on next page
  • 38. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 33 NPCC Natural Gas 3,522.00 75.0% 8.0% Wind 962.15 20.5% 3.6% Solar 99.63 2.1% 1.1% Wood 72.00 1.5% 18.6% Hydro 21.99 0.5% 2.4% Waste 21.00 0.4% 7.2% Total 4,698.77 RFC Natural Gas 10,216.10 78.4% 23.3% Wind 2,192.09 16.8% 8.2% Hydro 250.90 1.9% 27.7% Waste 157.00 1.2% 54.1% Solar 113.84 0.9% 1.2% Other 90.00 0.7% 13.0% Biomass Solid 3.00 0.0% 3.9% Distillate Fuel Oil 1.50 0.0% 2.4% Total 13,024.43 SERC Nuclear 5,737.90 42.6% 100.0% Natural Gas 5,139.00 38.1% 11.7% Coal 850.00 6.3% 26.8% Wind 697.50 5.2% 2.6% Solar 598.18 4.4% 6.4% Wood 149.00 1.1% 38.5% Hydro 119.12 0.9% 13.1% Wood Waste Liquid 62.00 0.5% 100.0% Biomass Gas 50.00 0.4% 89.9% Landfill Gas 39.01 0.3% 89.5% Biomass Solid 28.00 0.2% 36.1% Waste 5.20 0.0% 1.8% Biomass Other 1.60 0.0% 100.0% Total 13,476.51 Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 32) Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity continued on next page
  • 39. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 34 Permitted Plants and Plants Under Construction: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 33) Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity SPP Wind 4,862.85 75.5% 18.3% Coal 895.00 13.9% 28.2% Natural Gas 413.20 6.4% 0.9% Other 270.00 4.2% 39.0% Solar 1.00 0.0% 0.0% Total 6,442.05 WECC Solar 8,206.36 32.9% 87.6% Wind 7,238.10 29.0% 27.2% Natural Gas 7,201.19 28.9% 16.5% Coal 1,190.00 4.8% 37.5% Geothermal 771.08 3.1% 100.0% Wood 95.90 0.4% 24.8% Hydro 93.50 0.4% 10.3% Distillate Fuel Oil 57.60 0.2% 90.7% Agricultural Byproduct 49.90 0.2% 100.0% Other Gas 17.00 0.1% 100.0% Landfill Gas 4.60 0.0% 10.5% Waste Heat 2.20 0.0% 5.9% Biomass Gas 1.60 0.0% 2.9% Total 24,929.02
  • 40. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 35 Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity ASCC Hydro 3,239.24 90.6% 8.1% Coal 120.00 3.4% 2.0% Geothermal 110.00 3.1% 4.9% Jet Fuel 60.00 1.7% 100.0% Wind 41.60 1.2% 0.1% Distillate Fuel Oil 3.00 0.1% 4.6% Total 3,573.84 ERCOT Natural Gas 16,788.97 52.8% 22.0% Wind 9,652.45 30.3% 12.5% Nuclear 2,716.00 8.5% 9.5% Coal 1,500.00 4.7% 25.2% Solar 890.00 2.8% 2.0% Waste Heat 266.00 0.8% 55.3% Biomass Liquid 9.00 0.0% 100.0% Total 31,822.42 FRCC Natural Gas 3,493.77 42.1% 4.6% Nuclear 3,000.00 36.1% 10.5% Solar 1,292.85 15.6% 2.8% Wood 459.60 5.5% 37.9% Waste 13.00 0.2% 3.7% Hydro 26.30 0.3% 0.1% Landfill Gas 9.00 0.1% 4.6% Other 4.40 0.1% 1.3% Total 8,298.92 HCC Wind 565.00 63.2% 0.7% Geothermal 100.00 11.2% 4.5% Solar 72.00 8.1% 0.2% Liquified Natural Gas 50.63 5.7% 100.0% Agricultural Byproduct 50.00 5.6% 79.2% Landfill Gas 15.00 1.7% 7.6% Hydro 12.50 1.4% 0.0% Distillate Fuel Oil 10.00 1.1% 15.4% Waste 7.30 0.8% 2.1% Biomass Solid 6.00 0.7% 4.5% Wood 4.98 0.6% 0.4% Total 893.41 continued on next page
  • 41. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 36 Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 35) Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity MRO Wind 12,826.00 75.3% 16.6% Natural Gas 3,325.52 19.5% 4.4% Coal 375.00 2.2% 6.3% Solar 361.75 2.1% 0.8% Hydro 67.37 0.4% 0.2% Wood 40.00 0.2% 3.3% Biomass Solid 30.00 0.2% 22.5% Biomass Gas 2.70 0.0% 4.2% Landfill Gas 1.60 0.0% 0.8% Total 17,029.94 NPCC Natural Gas 6,338.85 49.2% 8.3% Wind 5,011.77 38.9% 6.5% Residual Fuel Oil 632.40 4.9% 100.0% Hydro 416.86 3.2% 1.0% Solar 384.52 3.0% 0.8% Wood 97.90 0.8% 8.1% Other 4.80 0.0% 1.4% Landfill Gas 4.80 0.0% 2.4% Waste 3.20 0.0% 0.9% Biomass Gas 1.00 0.0% 1.6% Total 12,896.10 RFC Natural Gas 22,021.79 52.5% 28.8% Wind 9,101.40 21.7% 11.8% Nuclear 4,750.00 11.3% 16.7% Hydro 3,823.76 9.1% 9.6% Coal 1,266.00 3.0% 21.2% Solar 478.30 1.1% 1.0% Waste Heat 160.00 0.4% 33.3% Waste 100.50 0.2% 28.5% Blast Furnace Gas 100.00 0.2% 16.7% Wood 82.50 0.2% 6.8% Landfill Gas 34.00 0.1% 17.3% Biomass Gas 14.00 0.0% 21.9% Biomass Other 8.00 0.0% 14.9% Biomass Solid 6.40 0.0% 4.8% Distillate Fuel Oil 5.90 0.0% 9.1% Other 3.00 0.0% 0.9% Total 41,955.55 continued on next page
  • 42. America’s Electricity Generation Capacity 2015 Update 37 SERC Wind 8,870.35 28.1% 11.5% Natural Gas 7,154.20 22.7% 9.4% Nuclear 5,065.00 16.1% 17.8% Hydro 4,666.03 14.8% 11.7% Solar 4,358.06 13.8% 9.6% Blast Furnace Gas 500.00 1.6% 83.3% Wood 467.00 1.5% 38.5% Waste 210.40 0.7% 59.7% Waste Heat 65.00 0.2% 13.5% Biomass Solid 61.43 0.2% 46.0% Distillate Fuel Oil 46.05 0.1% 70.9% Biomass Other 45.60 0.1% 85.1% Landfill Gas 12.10 0.0% 6.2% Other 8.80 0.0% 2.6% Biomass Gas 3.12 0.0% 4.9% Total 31,533.14 SPP Wind 7,138.52 60.1% 9.3% Nuclear 2,700.00 22.7% 9.5% Natural Gas 1,176.76 9.9% 1.5% Hydro 794.92 6.7% 2.0% Solar 62.80 0.5% 0.1% Total 11,873.00 WECC Solar 37,661.03 31.4% 82.7% Hydro 26,795.33 22.3% 67.3% Wind 23,847.80 19.9% 30.9% Natural Gas 16,141.38 13.4% 21.1% Nuclear 10,240.00 8.5% 36.0% Geothermal 2,032.70 1.7% 90.6% Coal 2,701.00 2.3% 45.3% Other 317.59 0.3% 93.8% Landfill Gas 119.97 0.1% 61.1% Wood 61.80 0.1% 5.1% Biomass Gas 43.10 0.0% 67.4% Biomass Solid 29.80 0.0% 22.3% Agricultural Byproduct 19.44 0.0% 30.8% Waste 18.20 0.0% 5.2% Total 120,029.14 . Proposed Plants and Plants Pending Application: Fuel Mix by Region (continued from page 36) Region Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Share of Region’s Share of Selected Fuel’s New Fuel Capacity Emerging Capacity