This document summarizes key points about anticipatory benefits in crime prevention:
1) Many crime prevention efforts see reductions in crime before the intervention is fully implemented, known as anticipatory benefits. This could be due to publicity of the planned intervention causing offenders to change behavior early.
2) A literature review found that around 40% of detailed crime prevention evaluations showed evidence of anticipatory benefits, suggesting the phenomenon is common. However, most evaluations do not provide enough detail to detect anticipatory effects.
3) Examples are given where announcing interventions like CCTV or bike patrols led to early drops in crime, before the full intervention. Publicity of initiatives may lead offenders to believe the intervention is already in place.
This document analyzes whether there should be a strict liability regime for harm caused by services, specifically within the medical profession. It begins by examining two models of tort law - the model of wrongs and the model of costs. Depending on how the standard of conduct is interpreted, the model of wrongs does not necessarily support strict liability for services, while the model of costs does. It then analyzes the current strict liability regime for defective products and the justifications for it. It finds problems with the current fault-based system for medical negligence due to the high costs. The document argues that the justifications for strict products liability can also apply to services, and proposes implementing a similar strict liability regime for services that fall below reasonable expectations
Discuss whether or not you feel these programs are effective in prev.pdffashioncollection2
Discuss whether or not you feel these programs are effective in preventing recidivism. Do you
think inmates should be eligible for Pell Grants? Why, or why not?
Solution
Recidivism is the act of relapsing into a problem or criminal behavior during or after receiving
sanctions, or while undergoing an intervention due to a previous behavior or crime. In criminal
justice settings, recidivism is often measured by criminal acts that result in rearrest, reconviction,
or return to prison. Yes, these programs are effective in preventing recidivism. Recidivism data
have been reported in terms of a variety of measures, including re-arrest, re-adjudication, and re-
incarceration. As a result, policy makers are often unable to make sense of seemingly disparate
findings or draw meaningful conclusions about program or system performance. Common
definitions and indicators are necessary to clearly communicate the meaning of outcome study
results, to unambiguously describe the methods used to obtain research findings, to enable
replication of research designs, to make possible comparisons across studies and regions, and to
facilitate our understanding of program or system effectiveness.
By definition, recidivism comprises two elements: 1) the commission of an offense, 2) by an
individual already known to have committed at least one other offense (Blumstein & Larson,
1971). To have a truly operable definition, one must clarify and qualify both parts.
Regarding the first half of the definition, one must ask: What constitutes “commission of an
offense?” Does the definition include status offenses? Would parole violations fall under the
definition? One might assume that the phrase “commission of an offense” refers to a criminal act
and thus excludes status offenses and parole violations. Consistency requires that the phrase
“commission of an offense” be defined explicitly.
For the second half of the definition, one must ask: Who is considered to be “an individual
already known to have committed at least one other offense?” In the case of a juvenile, must the
juvenile have been found guilty of an offense? If the juvenile had been arrested but diverted prior
to adjudication, is she included in this definition? A policy maker might argue that diversion
does not imply innocence; in fact, it implies or requires admission of guilt. Thus, if a youth who
was previously diverted comes before the court on a subsequent offense, is that not recidivism?
Evaluators must agree on uniform answers to these questions or their findings will be difficult to
interpret or compare.
Measuring Recidivism
The terms “define” and “measure” are often confused by non-researchers. Whereas “define”
refers to the meaning of a word—in this case, recidivism—“measure” refers to a method of
systematically determining its extent or degree within a given sample. In program evaluations,
the measures are the types of data used to determine recidivism levels. These data types include,
among others, self-.
This document presents a 7-stage framework for analyzing and improving near-miss management programs in the chemical process industry. Near-misses are unplanned incidents that do not result in injury or damage but have the potential to. The framework involves identifying near-misses, reporting them, analyzing causes, determining and disseminating solutions, and ensuring resolutions. Effective near-miss programs encourage employee involvement and can improve safety by addressing accident precursors before harm occurs.
This document summarizes research on reintegrating juvenile offenders after release from secure confinement. It describes an intensive juvenile aftercare model called the Intensive Aftercare Program (IAP) model developed with support from the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. The IAP model emphasizes preparing youth for reentry, making community linkages, and ensuring delivery of services and supervision after release. The document also reviews other intensive aftercare programs and compares them to the IAP model, noting the importance of providing both surveillance and treatment services.
Police Practice and Research,Vol. 7, No. 1, March 2006, pp. .docxharrisonhoward80223
The document discusses how the Edmonton Police Service built upon foundations of community-based policing and problem-solving to implement proactive policing strategies aimed at greater efficiency and effectiveness. It examines how Edmonton Police Service developed tactical management tools like intelligence-led policing to help manage increasing demands with decreasing resources. The document also outlines how Edmonton Police Service's shift toward proactive policing was driven by over a decade of provincial and municipal fiscal restraint requiring the service to find new ways to deliver policing in a cost-effective manner.
A Two-Stage Model Of Situational Crime PreventionAlicia Buske
This document presents a two-stage model of situational crime prevention. The model distinguishes between situations that precipitate criminal behavior and those that regulate it through opportunities. Situations can precipitate crime by prompting it, exerting social pressure, permitting disinhibition, or provoking emotional arousal. Excessive constraint can also increase precipitating pressures in a feedback loop. The model aims to address limitations of opportunity reduction models and explain displacement and counterproductive effects of prevention strategies.
IRJET- A Survey Paper of Blood Spatter Trajectory Analysis for Forensic CrimeIRJET Journal
This document discusses blood spatter analysis for forensic crime scene investigation. It begins with an abstract that outlines the application of image processing techniques to analyze blood trajectories at crime scenes. It then provides background on forensic science and crime scene analysis. Specifically, it discusses how blood stains can provide important evidence and how blood spatter analysis is used to help reconstruct crime events. The document emphasizes that accurately collecting and analyzing blood evidence is important for solving cases.
This document analyzes whether there should be a strict liability regime for harm caused by services, specifically within the medical profession. It begins by examining two models of tort law - the model of wrongs and the model of costs. Depending on how the standard of conduct is interpreted, the model of wrongs does not necessarily support strict liability for services, while the model of costs does. It then analyzes the current strict liability regime for defective products and the justifications for it. It finds problems with the current fault-based system for medical negligence due to the high costs. The document argues that the justifications for strict products liability can also apply to services, and proposes implementing a similar strict liability regime for services that fall below reasonable expectations
Discuss whether or not you feel these programs are effective in prev.pdffashioncollection2
Discuss whether or not you feel these programs are effective in preventing recidivism. Do you
think inmates should be eligible for Pell Grants? Why, or why not?
Solution
Recidivism is the act of relapsing into a problem or criminal behavior during or after receiving
sanctions, or while undergoing an intervention due to a previous behavior or crime. In criminal
justice settings, recidivism is often measured by criminal acts that result in rearrest, reconviction,
or return to prison. Yes, these programs are effective in preventing recidivism. Recidivism data
have been reported in terms of a variety of measures, including re-arrest, re-adjudication, and re-
incarceration. As a result, policy makers are often unable to make sense of seemingly disparate
findings or draw meaningful conclusions about program or system performance. Common
definitions and indicators are necessary to clearly communicate the meaning of outcome study
results, to unambiguously describe the methods used to obtain research findings, to enable
replication of research designs, to make possible comparisons across studies and regions, and to
facilitate our understanding of program or system effectiveness.
By definition, recidivism comprises two elements: 1) the commission of an offense, 2) by an
individual already known to have committed at least one other offense (Blumstein & Larson,
1971). To have a truly operable definition, one must clarify and qualify both parts.
Regarding the first half of the definition, one must ask: What constitutes “commission of an
offense?” Does the definition include status offenses? Would parole violations fall under the
definition? One might assume that the phrase “commission of an offense” refers to a criminal act
and thus excludes status offenses and parole violations. Consistency requires that the phrase
“commission of an offense” be defined explicitly.
For the second half of the definition, one must ask: Who is considered to be “an individual
already known to have committed at least one other offense?” In the case of a juvenile, must the
juvenile have been found guilty of an offense? If the juvenile had been arrested but diverted prior
to adjudication, is she included in this definition? A policy maker might argue that diversion
does not imply innocence; in fact, it implies or requires admission of guilt. Thus, if a youth who
was previously diverted comes before the court on a subsequent offense, is that not recidivism?
Evaluators must agree on uniform answers to these questions or their findings will be difficult to
interpret or compare.
Measuring Recidivism
The terms “define” and “measure” are often confused by non-researchers. Whereas “define”
refers to the meaning of a word—in this case, recidivism—“measure” refers to a method of
systematically determining its extent or degree within a given sample. In program evaluations,
the measures are the types of data used to determine recidivism levels. These data types include,
among others, self-.
This document presents a 7-stage framework for analyzing and improving near-miss management programs in the chemical process industry. Near-misses are unplanned incidents that do not result in injury or damage but have the potential to. The framework involves identifying near-misses, reporting them, analyzing causes, determining and disseminating solutions, and ensuring resolutions. Effective near-miss programs encourage employee involvement and can improve safety by addressing accident precursors before harm occurs.
This document summarizes research on reintegrating juvenile offenders after release from secure confinement. It describes an intensive juvenile aftercare model called the Intensive Aftercare Program (IAP) model developed with support from the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. The IAP model emphasizes preparing youth for reentry, making community linkages, and ensuring delivery of services and supervision after release. The document also reviews other intensive aftercare programs and compares them to the IAP model, noting the importance of providing both surveillance and treatment services.
Police Practice and Research,Vol. 7, No. 1, March 2006, pp. .docxharrisonhoward80223
The document discusses how the Edmonton Police Service built upon foundations of community-based policing and problem-solving to implement proactive policing strategies aimed at greater efficiency and effectiveness. It examines how Edmonton Police Service developed tactical management tools like intelligence-led policing to help manage increasing demands with decreasing resources. The document also outlines how Edmonton Police Service's shift toward proactive policing was driven by over a decade of provincial and municipal fiscal restraint requiring the service to find new ways to deliver policing in a cost-effective manner.
A Two-Stage Model Of Situational Crime PreventionAlicia Buske
This document presents a two-stage model of situational crime prevention. The model distinguishes between situations that precipitate criminal behavior and those that regulate it through opportunities. Situations can precipitate crime by prompting it, exerting social pressure, permitting disinhibition, or provoking emotional arousal. Excessive constraint can also increase precipitating pressures in a feedback loop. The model aims to address limitations of opportunity reduction models and explain displacement and counterproductive effects of prevention strategies.
IRJET- A Survey Paper of Blood Spatter Trajectory Analysis for Forensic CrimeIRJET Journal
This document discusses blood spatter analysis for forensic crime scene investigation. It begins with an abstract that outlines the application of image processing techniques to analyze blood trajectories at crime scenes. It then provides background on forensic science and crime scene analysis. Specifically, it discusses how blood stains can provide important evidence and how blood spatter analysis is used to help reconstruct crime events. The document emphasizes that accurately collecting and analyzing blood evidence is important for solving cases.
Inspection of Certain RNN-ELM Algorithms for Societal ApplicationsIRJET Journal
The document proposes a hybrid Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)-Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) model for crime classification using crime data from Philadelphia. The RNN extracts relevant features from the data using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model and learns patterns over time. The ELM is then applied at the end for the classification task. The proposed model is evaluated on accuracy, precision, and recall and is found to perform crime classification without backpropagation, making it faster than traditional neural networks. The model could help law enforcement identify crime hotspots and adjust policing strategies based on the predicted crime rates at different locations and times.
Causality for Policy Assessment and Impact AnalysisBayesia USA
The objective of this paper is to provide you with a practical framework for causal effect estimation in the context of policy assessment and impact analysis, and in the absence of experimental data.
We will present a range of methods, along with their limitations, including Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bayesian networks. These techniques are intended to help you distinguish causation from association when working with data from observational studies
This paper is structured as a tutorial that revolves around a single, seemingly simple example. On the basis of this example, we will illustrate numerous techniques for causal identification and estimation.
Accident Analysis Models And Methods Guidance For Safety ProfessionalsLeslie Schulte
This document provides an overview of accident analysis models and methods. It discusses three categories of analysis techniques: sequential, epidemiological, and systemic. Sequential techniques view accidents as resulting from time-ordered causal events, but cannot adequately account for organizational and human factors. Epidemiological techniques were developed to consider organizational influences, and view accidents as stemming from latent failures within a system. More recently, systemic techniques have emerged that treat socio-technical systems holistically and focus on the interactions between system components. The document aims to inform readers on different analysis approaches and factors that influence model selection.
This document summarizes a study that examines using cluster analysis to detect anomalies in accounting data, specifically for detecting discrepancies during audits. The study applies cluster analysis to a dataset from a US insurance company to group similar life insurance claims together and flag small clusters for further investigation. Some characteristics of flagged clusters included large beneficiary payments, large interest payments, and long lags between claim submission and payment. The document reviews literature on anomaly detection and cluster analysis techniques for anomaly detection, and discusses how cluster analysis is well-suited for fraud detection in accounting data since it is difficult to identify abnormal transactions.
The document describes the design of prediction models to analyze the effects of tort reforms on malpractice claims in Texas. Key points:
1) Regression models were developed using variables like year, population, number of physicians/lawyers, GDP, and CPI to predict the frequency and severity of malpractice claims.
2) Q-Q plots showed the variables were normally distributed, allowing use of statistical tests like t-tests and chi-square tests.
3) The best regression models for predicting frequency and severity had adjusted R-squared values of 0.503 and 0.423, respectively, and all coefficients were statistically significant.
4) The models will be used to simulate claim losses and develop a
This document discusses methods for causal identification and estimation from observational data for policy assessment and impact analysis. It introduces directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and Bayesian networks as techniques for causal identification using a theoretical framework known as the potential outcomes or counterfactual model. DAGs allow identification of causal effects through conditional independence relationships represented in a graph. Bayesian networks then enable estimation of causal effects by representing the joint probability distribution encoded in a DAG and performing inference. The document uses a single example throughout to illustrate these identification and estimation techniques.
Predictive analysis of crime forecastingFrank Smilda
This document discusses various methods for predictive crime mapping, beginning with simply using past crime "hot spots" as a predictor of future hot spots. While this approach has limited accuracy over short periods, past hot spots can predict up to 90% of future crime over longer periods like a year. The document then reviews more sophisticated predictive modeling methods and the role of geographic information systems in developing spatial models to predict crime.
This document discusses the history and evolution of human factors analysis and just culture in aviation incident investigation. It provides details on:
- The shift from solely focusing on human-machine interfaces to recognizing broader organizational and cultural causes of human error.
- Advances in understanding why errors occur rather than just classifying them, driven partly by reduced hardware errors with technological changes.
- Types of errors (active vs. latent) and Reason's Swiss cheese model of defenses with holes that must align for accidents to occur.
- Challenges investigating errors but importance of reports, including near misses, for understanding underlying causes even if reconstructed versus objective.
- Just culture aims to balance accountability with open reporting by focusing
Oz Paper Help
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Email:ozpaperhelp@gmail.com
www.ozpaperhelp.com
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The document discusses concepts from complexity theory and their application to alternative dispute resolution (ADR) processes. It outlines two key concepts - emergence and the "butterfly effect." It then describes two examples of ADR systems - one involving drink driving conferences that was fragile and unpredictable, and one involving community peace committees in South Africa that was robust and stable. The conclusion is that ADR systems should allow for complex, adaptive responses to emerge from a few simple principles in a robust, bottom-up way, rather than being fragile systems that require top-down tweaking.
Exploring the Black Box ofCommunity SupervisionJAMES BON.docxlmelaine
Exploring the Black Box of
Community Supervision
JAMES BONTA
TANYA RUGGE
TERRI-LYNNE SCOTT
GUY BOURGON
ANNIE K. YESSINE
ABSTRACT Community supervision has been an integral part of cor-
rections since the establishment of probation more than 100 years ago.
It has commonly been assumed that offenders benefit from community
supervision much more than if they were incarcerated. However, empiri-
cal evidence in support of the effectiveness of community supervision in
reducing recidivism questions this assumption. A detailed examination of
audio taped interviews between 62 probation officers and their clients
found relatively poor adherence to some of the basic principles of effec-
tive intervention–the principles of Risk, Need and Responsivity. For the
most part, probation officers spent too much time on the enforcement
aspect of supervision (i.e., complying with the conditions of probation)
and not enough time on the service delivery role of supervision. Major
criminogenic needs such as antisocial attitudes and social supports for
crime were largely ignored and probation officers evidenced few of the
skills (e.g., prosocial modeling, differential reinforcement) that could
influence behavioral change in their clients. As a snapshot of present
practices, this study begins a path to a systematic and structured training
agenda to help probation officers become more effective agents of
change.
This article is not subject to U.S. copyright law.
Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, Vol. 47(3), 2008. Pp. 248–270.
Available online at http://jor.haworthpress.com
doi: 10.1080/10509670802134085
KEYWORDS Community supervision, offender rehabilitation,
probation
PROBATION IN THE U.S. AND CANADA
Probation was introduced to the United States (Boston) by John
Augustus in 1841 and in 1876, Elmira Reformatory in New York
State was the first prison to release inmates on parole. More than a
century later probation and parole represent the major forms of
supervising offenders in the community. In 2004 in the United States
there were nearly five million people either on probation or parole
supervision (Glaze & Palla, 2005). During the same time period, in
Canada, there were 98,805 adult offenders on probation and another
21,695 on some other forms of community supervision (e.g., parole,
conditional sentences; Beattie, 2006). Despite the widespread use of
community supervision, what do we really know about the effective-
ness of community supervision in managing offender recidivism?
The Effectiveness of Community Supervision Pre-1967
Community sentences (i.e., probation) are generally viewed as an
alternative to imprisonment suitable for many offenders. It provides
a safe and inexpensive way of delivering punishments that fit less
serious crimes while avoiding the detrimental effects of incarceration.
Parole is not a sentence handed down by a court like probation but
rather a community sanction administered by tribunal paroling autho-
rities and parole s ...
Working together for effective natural resource governance? Considering risk and context in the relationship between horizontal and vertical accountability mechanisms.
A Gamer S Nightmare An Analysis Of The Sony PlayStation Hacking CrisisAngela Shin
This document analyzes Sony's 2011 PlayStation Network hacking crisis using the Anticipatory Model of Crisis Management (AMCM) framework. The AMCM focuses on crisis prevention by assessing potential triggers and response plans. In April 2011, Sony's PlayStation Network suffered a breach exposing 100+ million user accounts. Sony shut down the network but waited a week to disclose the hacking. The analysis found that Sony could have handled the crisis better by following AMCM principles of expectations, enactment, and control to anticipate and prevent the crisis.
BRITISH JOURNAL OF COMMUNITY JUSTICE - PROBATIONAnarchistPO
BRITISH JOURNAL OF COMMUNITY JUSTICE - PROBATION
Volume 11 Number 2/3 Winter 2013
Editorial - Probation: Peering through the uncertainty.
Digging up the grassroots?
Transforming Rehabilitation
My Rehabilitation Revolution
Transforming Rehabilitation and the creeping marketisation of British public services
Payment by Results: hopes, fears and evidence
This document discusses using machine learning techniques like clustering and decision trees to analyze crime data from Chicago between 2014-2016. It aims to identify crime hot spots and patterns to help police allocate resources more efficiently. The document applies k-means clustering to crime data grouped by location and type, identifying a "vice" cluster with crimes like prostitution and drugs in two adjacent wards. It suggests police could use temporal and hourly crime patterns from the analysis to optimize staff scheduling and deployment. The document also discusses using decision trees and k-nearest neighbors algorithms on the crime data supplemented with temperature and unemployment data to further explore crime patterns.
This document discusses factors related to patrol allocation and deployment in police departments. It addresses how patrol time is spent, challenges in determining patrol effectiveness, and different approaches to patrol discussed by policing experts including August Vollmer and O.W. Wilson. Key considerations for patrol allocation include calls for service, response times, crime rates, and providing a visible presence to promote community safety. However, the best methods remain unclear due to limited rigorous research on different patrol strategies.
New model for a just and fair culture april 2008 posted april 2011DigitalPower
This document summarizes a paper that proposes a new model called "Meeting Expectations" for managing non-compliance in high-risk industries. The current model, called the "Just Culture," is analyzed and found to have shortcomings, including an emphasis on punishment, lack of manager accountability, and not recognizing different types of non-compliance. The proposed new model would recognize intentional and unintentional non-compliance as well as exemplary behavior, and define consequences for individuals and their managers. Non-compliance is found to stem from expectations of rule-bending, a sense of competence or "powerfulness," opportunities for shortcuts, and poor work planning. Different types of non-compliance are identified. The Texas City refinery disaster
Here are the key points regarding the financial elder abuse questions:
a. The Bill Pay claims group uses several criteria to identify possible financial elder abuse, including unusual transaction patterns, large withdrawals/transfers, and signs the elder may be coerced or not acting voluntarily.
b. Bankers are trained to report any suspected financial elder abuse to the Elder Financial Abuse team by completing an incident report form with relevant details.
c. Yes, management obtains aggregated data and reports from the Elder Financial Abuse team on incidents reported by other teams like Online Claims. This information is used for ongoing training and to identify any patterns that could help prevent future abuse. Reporting processes are also reviewed and updated based on analysis of past incidents.
Running head EVALUATION OFNEIGHBORHOOD WATCH PROGRAM 1 .docxtodd271
Running head: EVALUATION OFNEIGHBORHOOD WATCH PROGRAM 1
EVALUATION OF NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH PROGRAM
Abstract
There has been little work on the evaluation of neighborhood watch programs in the past. However,
scholars and policy makers have increasingly shown interest in identifying whether neighborhood
watch programs are effective. The studies conducted in the past have limitations which make them
unable to precisely measure the effectiveness of neighborhood watch programs. In response to
EVALUATION OF NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH PROGRAM 2
that, this paper proposes an elaborate evaluation technique which can assist in accurately
determining the effectiveness of the existing neighborhood watch programs. The paper does not
ignore the previous studies but instead explores them with the aim of offering theoretical
background of the programs and also explores the proposed techniques with the objective of
presenting a reliable and appropriate method of assessment.
Introduction
Neighborhood watch is also called neighborhood crime watch or crime watch. It refers to the
organization of civilians into a group which is devoted to crime or vandalism prevention within
their respective neighborhood. Neighborhood watch programs aim at achieving a wide range of
objectives related to the security of their neighborhood. Some of the objectives of this program
involve the educating community on security and safety of the neighborhood and establishing
means of maintaining a safety neighborhood. This program usually cooperate with law
enforcement agencies in such a way that if the neighborhood watch group identifies a criminal
they are expected to inform the authorities and not to engage. It is this attribute of the group that
differentiates it from vigilante groups.
In the United States there are numerous neighborhood watch groups and Rosenbaum (1988),
estimated that 20% of American residents were involved in the neighborhood watch activities by
1988. The organization and agenda of these groups vary but they all maintain that their main
objectives are related to the promotion of secure neighborhood and crime reduction. Current
systems of Neighborhood watch programs trace their origin back in 1960. According to
Rasenberger (2006), the shocking events of the murder and rape of Kitty Genovese compelled the
people to organize themselves into crime prevention groups. Ever since the Neighborhood Watch
EVALUATION OF NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH PROGRAM 3
programs have developed nationwide with the assistance of the National Sheriff's Association.
Various scholars have presented various analyses of these programs with the aim of identifying
whether the programs are effective. These evaluations have applied various approaches with some
having limitations which negatively influenced the results obtained. This paper seeks to present a
reliable method of evaluating the programs with the aim of shaping and i.
Writing Creative Nonfiction By Philip Gerard, PaperbacKate Campbell
The document discusses the shift from Fordism to post-Fordism and flexible production systems. It explains that Fordism involved mass production of standardized goods, while post-Fordism focuses on flexible specialization, rapid product changes, and customization. This allows companies to differentiate their products based on style and cater to niche markets. The transition resulted in more temporary and unstable jobs compared to the stable careers common under Fordism.
Free Lined Writing Paper Printable - PrinKate Campbell
1) Car seat installation is important for safety, as thousands are injured or killed each year due to improper installation.
2) When buying a car seat, parents should research which seats have high safety standards and how they scored on safety rating tests.
3) It is crucial to ensure the car seat is installed correctly according to the vehicle and that the child is properly strapped in snugly. Extra blankets or bulky clothing can cause improper fitting.
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Causality for Policy Assessment and Impact AnalysisBayesia USA
The objective of this paper is to provide you with a practical framework for causal effect estimation in the context of policy assessment and impact analysis, and in the absence of experimental data.
We will present a range of methods, along with their limitations, including Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bayesian networks. These techniques are intended to help you distinguish causation from association when working with data from observational studies
This paper is structured as a tutorial that revolves around a single, seemingly simple example. On the basis of this example, we will illustrate numerous techniques for causal identification and estimation.
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This document summarizes a study that examines using cluster analysis to detect anomalies in accounting data, specifically for detecting discrepancies during audits. The study applies cluster analysis to a dataset from a US insurance company to group similar life insurance claims together and flag small clusters for further investigation. Some characteristics of flagged clusters included large beneficiary payments, large interest payments, and long lags between claim submission and payment. The document reviews literature on anomaly detection and cluster analysis techniques for anomaly detection, and discusses how cluster analysis is well-suited for fraud detection in accounting data since it is difficult to identify abnormal transactions.
The document describes the design of prediction models to analyze the effects of tort reforms on malpractice claims in Texas. Key points:
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2) Q-Q plots showed the variables were normally distributed, allowing use of statistical tests like t-tests and chi-square tests.
3) The best regression models for predicting frequency and severity had adjusted R-squared values of 0.503 and 0.423, respectively, and all coefficients were statistically significant.
4) The models will be used to simulate claim losses and develop a
This document discusses methods for causal identification and estimation from observational data for policy assessment and impact analysis. It introduces directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and Bayesian networks as techniques for causal identification using a theoretical framework known as the potential outcomes or counterfactual model. DAGs allow identification of causal effects through conditional independence relationships represented in a graph. Bayesian networks then enable estimation of causal effects by representing the joint probability distribution encoded in a DAG and performing inference. The document uses a single example throughout to illustrate these identification and estimation techniques.
Predictive analysis of crime forecastingFrank Smilda
This document discusses various methods for predictive crime mapping, beginning with simply using past crime "hot spots" as a predictor of future hot spots. While this approach has limited accuracy over short periods, past hot spots can predict up to 90% of future crime over longer periods like a year. The document then reviews more sophisticated predictive modeling methods and the role of geographic information systems in developing spatial models to predict crime.
This document discusses the history and evolution of human factors analysis and just culture in aviation incident investigation. It provides details on:
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- Advances in understanding why errors occur rather than just classifying them, driven partly by reduced hardware errors with technological changes.
- Types of errors (active vs. latent) and Reason's Swiss cheese model of defenses with holes that must align for accidents to occur.
- Challenges investigating errors but importance of reports, including near misses, for understanding underlying causes even if reconstructed versus objective.
- Just culture aims to balance accountability with open reporting by focusing
Oz Paper Help
WhatsApp:+91-9519066910
Email:ozpaperhelp@gmail.com
www.ozpaperhelp.com
www.cheapassignmenthelp.co.uk
www.freeassignmenthelp.com
https://www.ozpaperhelp.com/
The document discusses concepts from complexity theory and their application to alternative dispute resolution (ADR) processes. It outlines two key concepts - emergence and the "butterfly effect." It then describes two examples of ADR systems - one involving drink driving conferences that was fragile and unpredictable, and one involving community peace committees in South Africa that was robust and stable. The conclusion is that ADR systems should allow for complex, adaptive responses to emerge from a few simple principles in a robust, bottom-up way, rather than being fragile systems that require top-down tweaking.
Exploring the Black Box ofCommunity SupervisionJAMES BON.docxlmelaine
Exploring the Black Box of
Community Supervision
JAMES BONTA
TANYA RUGGE
TERRI-LYNNE SCOTT
GUY BOURGON
ANNIE K. YESSINE
ABSTRACT Community supervision has been an integral part of cor-
rections since the establishment of probation more than 100 years ago.
It has commonly been assumed that offenders benefit from community
supervision much more than if they were incarcerated. However, empiri-
cal evidence in support of the effectiveness of community supervision in
reducing recidivism questions this assumption. A detailed examination of
audio taped interviews between 62 probation officers and their clients
found relatively poor adherence to some of the basic principles of effec-
tive intervention–the principles of Risk, Need and Responsivity. For the
most part, probation officers spent too much time on the enforcement
aspect of supervision (i.e., complying with the conditions of probation)
and not enough time on the service delivery role of supervision. Major
criminogenic needs such as antisocial attitudes and social supports for
crime were largely ignored and probation officers evidenced few of the
skills (e.g., prosocial modeling, differential reinforcement) that could
influence behavioral change in their clients. As a snapshot of present
practices, this study begins a path to a systematic and structured training
agenda to help probation officers become more effective agents of
change.
This article is not subject to U.S. copyright law.
Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, Vol. 47(3), 2008. Pp. 248–270.
Available online at http://jor.haworthpress.com
doi: 10.1080/10509670802134085
KEYWORDS Community supervision, offender rehabilitation,
probation
PROBATION IN THE U.S. AND CANADA
Probation was introduced to the United States (Boston) by John
Augustus in 1841 and in 1876, Elmira Reformatory in New York
State was the first prison to release inmates on parole. More than a
century later probation and parole represent the major forms of
supervising offenders in the community. In 2004 in the United States
there were nearly five million people either on probation or parole
supervision (Glaze & Palla, 2005). During the same time period, in
Canada, there were 98,805 adult offenders on probation and another
21,695 on some other forms of community supervision (e.g., parole,
conditional sentences; Beattie, 2006). Despite the widespread use of
community supervision, what do we really know about the effective-
ness of community supervision in managing offender recidivism?
The Effectiveness of Community Supervision Pre-1967
Community sentences (i.e., probation) are generally viewed as an
alternative to imprisonment suitable for many offenders. It provides
a safe and inexpensive way of delivering punishments that fit less
serious crimes while avoiding the detrimental effects of incarceration.
Parole is not a sentence handed down by a court like probation but
rather a community sanction administered by tribunal paroling autho-
rities and parole s ...
Working together for effective natural resource governance? Considering risk and context in the relationship between horizontal and vertical accountability mechanisms.
A Gamer S Nightmare An Analysis Of The Sony PlayStation Hacking CrisisAngela Shin
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BRITISH JOURNAL OF COMMUNITY JUSTICE - PROBATIONAnarchistPO
BRITISH JOURNAL OF COMMUNITY JUSTICE - PROBATION
Volume 11 Number 2/3 Winter 2013
Editorial - Probation: Peering through the uncertainty.
Digging up the grassroots?
Transforming Rehabilitation
My Rehabilitation Revolution
Transforming Rehabilitation and the creeping marketisation of British public services
Payment by Results: hopes, fears and evidence
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a. The Bill Pay claims group uses several criteria to identify possible financial elder abuse, including unusual transaction patterns, large withdrawals/transfers, and signs the elder may be coerced or not acting voluntarily.
b. Bankers are trained to report any suspected financial elder abuse to the Elder Financial Abuse team by completing an incident report form with relevant details.
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Running head EVALUATION OFNEIGHBORHOOD WATCH PROGRAM 1 .docxtodd271
Running head: EVALUATION OFNEIGHBORHOOD WATCH PROGRAM 1
EVALUATION OF NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH PROGRAM
Abstract
There has been little work on the evaluation of neighborhood watch programs in the past. However,
scholars and policy makers have increasingly shown interest in identifying whether neighborhood
watch programs are effective. The studies conducted in the past have limitations which make them
unable to precisely measure the effectiveness of neighborhood watch programs. In response to
EVALUATION OF NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH PROGRAM 2
that, this paper proposes an elaborate evaluation technique which can assist in accurately
determining the effectiveness of the existing neighborhood watch programs. The paper does not
ignore the previous studies but instead explores them with the aim of offering theoretical
background of the programs and also explores the proposed techniques with the objective of
presenting a reliable and appropriate method of assessment.
Introduction
Neighborhood watch is also called neighborhood crime watch or crime watch. It refers to the
organization of civilians into a group which is devoted to crime or vandalism prevention within
their respective neighborhood. Neighborhood watch programs aim at achieving a wide range of
objectives related to the security of their neighborhood. Some of the objectives of this program
involve the educating community on security and safety of the neighborhood and establishing
means of maintaining a safety neighborhood. This program usually cooperate with law
enforcement agencies in such a way that if the neighborhood watch group identifies a criminal
they are expected to inform the authorities and not to engage. It is this attribute of the group that
differentiates it from vigilante groups.
In the United States there are numerous neighborhood watch groups and Rosenbaum (1988),
estimated that 20% of American residents were involved in the neighborhood watch activities by
1988. The organization and agenda of these groups vary but they all maintain that their main
objectives are related to the promotion of secure neighborhood and crime reduction. Current
systems of Neighborhood watch programs trace their origin back in 1960. According to
Rasenberger (2006), the shocking events of the murder and rape of Kitty Genovese compelled the
people to organize themselves into crime prevention groups. Ever since the Neighborhood Watch
EVALUATION OF NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH PROGRAM 3
programs have developed nationwide with the assistance of the National Sheriff's Association.
Various scholars have presented various analyses of these programs with the aim of identifying
whether the programs are effective. These evaluations have applied various approaches with some
having limitations which negatively influenced the results obtained. This paper seeks to present a
reliable method of evaluating the programs with the aim of shaping and i.
Similar to Anticipatory Benefits In Crime Prevention (20)
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Denis is a dynamic and results-driven Chief Information Officer (CIO) with a distinguished career spanning information systems analysis and technical project management. With a proven track record of spearheading the design and delivery of cutting-edge Information Management solutions, he has consistently elevated business operations, streamlined reporting functions, and maximized process efficiency.
Certified as an ISO/IEC 27001: Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) Lead Implementer, Data Protection Officer, and Cyber Risks Analyst, Denis brings a heightened focus on data security, privacy, and cyber resilience to every endeavor.
His expertise extends across a diverse spectrum of reporting, database, and web development applications, underpinned by an exceptional grasp of data storage and virtualization technologies. His proficiency in application testing, database administration, and data cleansing ensures seamless execution of complex projects.
What sets Denis apart is his comprehensive understanding of Business and Systems Analysis technologies, honed through involvement in all phases of the Software Development Lifecycle (SDLC). From meticulous requirements gathering to precise analysis, innovative design, rigorous development, thorough testing, and successful implementation, he has consistently delivered exceptional results.
Throughout his career, he has taken on multifaceted roles, from leading technical project management teams to owning solutions that drive operational excellence. His conscientious and proactive approach is unwavering, whether he is working independently or collaboratively within a team. His ability to connect with colleagues on a personal level underscores his commitment to fostering a harmonious and productive workplace environment.
Date: May 29, 2024
Tags: Information Security, ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001, Artificial Intelligence, GDPR
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Find out more about ISO training and certification services
Training: ISO/IEC 27001 Information Security Management System - EN | PECB
ISO/IEC 42001 Artificial Intelligence Management System - EN | PECB
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) - Training Courses - EN | PECB
Webinars: https://pecb.com/webinars
Article: https://pecb.com/article
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LAND USE LAND COVER AND NDVI OF MIRZAPUR DISTRICT, UPRAHUL
This Dissertation explores the particular circumstances of Mirzapur, a region located in the
core of India. Mirzapur, with its varied terrains and abundant biodiversity, offers an optimal
environment for investigating the changes in vegetation cover dynamics. Our study utilizes
advanced technologies such as GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and Remote sensing to
analyze the transformations that have taken place over the course of a decade.
The complex relationship between human activities and the environment has been the focus
of extensive research and worry. As the global community grapples with swift urbanization,
population expansion, and economic progress, the effects on natural ecosystems are becoming
more evident. A crucial element of this impact is the alteration of vegetation cover, which plays a
significant role in maintaining the ecological equilibrium of our planet.Land serves as the foundation for all human activities and provides the necessary materials for
these activities. As the most crucial natural resource, its utilization by humans results in different
'Land uses,' which are determined by both human activities and the physical characteristics of the
land.
The utilization of land is impacted by human needs and environmental factors. In countries
like India, rapid population growth and the emphasis on extensive resource exploitation can lead
to significant land degradation, adversely affecting the region's land cover.
Therefore, human intervention has significantly influenced land use patterns over many
centuries, evolving its structure over time and space. In the present era, these changes have
accelerated due to factors such as agriculture and urbanization. Information regarding land use and
cover is essential for various planning and management tasks related to the Earth's surface,
providing crucial environmental data for scientific, resource management, policy purposes, and
diverse human activities.
Accurate understanding of land use and cover is imperative for the development planning
of any area. Consequently, a wide range of professionals, including earth system scientists, land
and water managers, and urban planners, are interested in obtaining data on land use and cover
changes, conversion trends, and other related patterns. The spatial dimensions of land use and
cover support policymakers and scientists in making well-informed decisions, as alterations in
these patterns indicate shifts in economic and social conditions. Monitoring such changes with the
help of Advanced technologies like Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems is
crucial for coordinated efforts across different administrative levels. Advanced technologies like
Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems
9
Changes in vegetation cover refer to variations in the distribution, composition, and overall
structure of plant communities across different temporal and spatial scales. These changes can
occur natural.
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Strategies for Effective Upskilling is a presentation by Chinwendu Peace in a Your Skill Boost Masterclass organisation by the Excellence Foundation for South Sudan on 08th and 09th June 2024 from 1 PM to 3 PM on each day.
Your Skill Boost Masterclass: Strategies for Effective Upskilling
Anticipatory Benefits In Crime Prevention
1. ANTICIPATORY BENEFITS IN CRIME
PREVENTION
by
Martha J. Smith
Cardiff University
Ronald V. Clarke
Rutgers University
and
Ken Pease
University College, London
Abstract: This chapter seeks to achieve three things, in decreasing
order of importance: (1) To point out the basic phenomenon, i.e., the
prematurity of many crime prevention effects relative to the point at
which they would occur if they were the product of their presumed
mechanism. This is termed anticipatory benefits. (2) To trawl published
literature for instances of possible and probable anticipatory benefits.
(3) To classify possible reasons for anticipatory benefits and to set out
their implications.
INTRODUCTION
For almost 70 years, social science students have been lectured
about events in the bank wiring room of the General Electric Com-
pany's factory in Hawthorne, Michigan (see Mayo 1933). In summary,
changes in working conditions, duration of rest periods and the like
all yielded increases in productivity, whatever the nature of the
change. Thus, lengthening rest periods increased productivity, as did
shortening rest periods. Extra illumination increased productivity, as
did less illumination. The active ingredient in the change was not its
Crime Prevention Studies, volume 13, pp. 71-88.
2. Martha J. Smith, Ronald V. Clarke and Ken Pease
specifics, but the attention directed at the employees in the bank
wiring room. For present purposes, the precise psychological process
involved matters little. It could have been fear of dismissal or pleas-
ure at being the centre of attention, or sny combination of these and
other reactions. However, the central conclusion remains robust,
namely that social processes are complex, and capable of giving rise
to substantial unforeseen effects masqu erading as the effects of the
"real" variables manipulated.
Three points from the Hawthorne study are relevant to crime re-
duction:
• The manipulation of working conditions took place along lines
that should have worked. It makes intuitive sense that better
working conditions would improve productivity. In the same
way it is clear that street lighting or closed-circuit television
(CCTV) should work by increasing surveillability. Plague re-
duction should work by drowning witches, and fever should
be reduced by the extraction of overheated blood. We have
been too ready to assume that how crime prevention should
work is the way crime prevention does work.
• It took time in the Hawthorne study to work out that the ac-
tive ingredient was change itself, not the specifics of the
change. In crime reduction, we have scarcely begun to look at
matters from that perspective, even though change itself
seems a clear means of dissuading offenders from repeatedly
targeting the same place or person (Ashton et al., 1998) .
• The Hawthorne Effect has typically been characterised as a
problem, not a solution. Yet deploying such effects is arguably
the most cost-effective crime prevention technique possible.
Seeking to deploy such effects requires some understanding of the
mechanisms by which crime reduction achieves its effects (Pawson
and Tilley 1997). Ultimately, all crime reduction, with the exception
of incapacitating offenders, works by changing a potential offender's
or victim's construction of a presenting opportunity. Successful re-
habilitation programmes would work by the erstwhile offender ceas-
ing to register a criminal opportunity, or ceasing to regard it as per-
sonally relevant. Successful deterrent programmes operate through
change in the presumed consequences of acting on a recognised op-
portunity. Successful opportunity reduction programmes reconfigure
environments so that opportunities are removed or are no longer rec-
ognised. Opportunity itself does not inhere in the external world. It is
a perception, more or less realistic, of circumstances which make an
action opportune. Insofar as crime reduction tactics work at all, they
work through changes in perception. The centrality of offender per-
- 72-
3. Anticipatory Benefits in Crime Prevention
ceptions to the effectiveness of situational prevention is well under-
stood, and these form the basis of Clarke and Homel's (1997) classifi-
cation of 16 opportunity reducing techniques. For example, denying
benefits is effective as crime reduction only insofar as a would-be of-
fender is able to learn from experience to construe a presenting
situation in a changed way.
If crime control is contingent on the perception of changed cir-
cumstances, it may (and frequently does) confer anticipatory benefits,
as we have chosen to call it. As this chapter goes on to suggest, such
anticipatory benefits are not uncommon.
ANTICIPATORY BENEFITS IN THE LITERATURE
How widespread is the phenomenon? The literature was trawled
for examples of crime reduction initiatives. These were classified as
detailed enough or not detailed enough for anticipatory benefits to be
discerned. Criteria for inclusion were that reports were:
(1) in English;
(2) published (although unpublished reports submitted to local
authorities or funding bodies were included, if a copy could be
located);
(3) included an initiative that had been implemented, permitted
some assessment about when it appears to have been initi-
ated, and could be coded using the 16-category SCP technique
classification of Clarke and Homel (1997);
(4) had some measure of crime (even if these were not official po-
lice records).
Some 142 pieces of research met the criteria set out above, involving
prevention projects at 211 sites. 1
The next step was to classify the research according to whether it
was sufficiently detailed to discern anticipatory benefits. A study was
deemed detailed enough if four sets of criteria were met. First, the
date (or month) when the initiative was implemented must be given.
Second, the study must set out time-series data that cover enough of
the period prior to the initiative so that factors that might account for
anticipatory benefits are included. Third., the time-series data points
must be frequent enough to be meaning::ul given the type of initiative
involved and the base rates of the crimes to be prevented. Fourth, it
must be possible to separate the effects of the present initiative from
previous crime prevention initiatives in the area and from other ini-
tiatives being carried out at the same time in the same place. Of the
211 cases reported, 52 met the above criteria. That only one in four
evaluation reports allowed consideration of anticipatory benefits
- 7 3 -
4. Martha J. Smith, Ronald V. Clarke and Ken Pease
should be remarked. At first blush, it suggests that most evaluation
reports are not drafted with issues of effect onset in mind.
The 52 "sufficiently detailed" reports were further classified. Prima
facie anticipatory benefits were noted if a pre-initiative drop in a
crime measure was observed. A study was considered as reflecting
"probable" anticipatory benefits if the study noted some factor that
could plausibly operate as a mechanism for it, even if the authors
themselves did not draw this conclusion. Prima facie and probable
anticipatory benefits studies differ less in the likelihood of anticipa-
tory benefits as in the prominence and self-consciousness with which
explanatory variables to account for it are addressed. Put crudely, if
evaluators do not speculate or more rigorously account for anticipa-
tory effects, it makes those effects no less real.
Rather than duplicate lists of references in the body of the chapter
and the bibliography, each reference marked:
"+" reports a case that is sufficiently detailed but which shows
no evidence of anticipatory benefits;
"++" shows prima facie evidence; and
"+++" shows anticipatory benefits for reasons set out in the pa-
per.
Of the 52 cases, 22 showed prima facie evidence of an anticipa-
tory effect, of which seven stated reasons for it (or set out enough
information for constructing a putative mechanism). Looked at in
this way, around 40% of those studies reviewed which were capable
of demonstrating anticipatory benefits showed at least prima facie
evidence of them. Crude as this trawl is, it suggests that anticipatory
benefits are not rare phenomena, and that, as a minimum, evalua-
tion studies should contain enough information to allow these effects
to show themselves.
Some Examples
In what follows, some sense of what anticipatory benefits look like
is provided (see also Table 1).
Barclay et al. (1997), studying the effects of security cycle patrols
on parking lot crime, showed (Figure 1) that announcing the scheme
(at highlighted point 1) was followed by a reduction in crime before
foot was ever laid to pedal (at highlighted point 2). Ending the
scheme (at highlighted point 3) was not immediately followed by an
increase in crime.
-74—
5. Table 1: Published Evaluations of Crime Prevention Initiatives
with Recorded Anticipatory Benefits
Study
Armitage et
al. (1999)
Barclay et
al. (1996)
Brown
(1995)
Poyner et
al. (1986)
Ross
(1973)
Location
Burnley,
Lancashire, UK
Vancouver,
Canada
Newcastle-
upon-Tyne, UK
Pepys Estate,
Lewisham,
London, UK
Great Britain
Intervention
CCTV system
Bike patrol
CCTV system
Physical
improvement and
clean-up
Legislation on
compulsory
testing of blood
alcohol levels of
driers
Anticipatory
Benefits
Vehicle crime and
other property crime
- March 1995
Vehicle thefts - late
March 1995.
Burglary — Dec.
1992
Criminal damage &
Other theft - Jan.
1993
Thefts of cars - Oct.
1981
Thefts from cars -
July 1982
Failing to stop after
an accident-
dropped in 1965,
remained stable in
1966 and dropped
again in 1967
Possible Explanation
First camera became operational in April 1995.
Publicity associated with planned camera
installation.
Publicity campaign began March 11, 1995.
Bike patrol implemented on April 1, 1995.
Offenders unsure when bike patrol began.
Cameras installed in Nov. 1992.
Cameras fully operational in March 1993.
Offenders may have thought cameras were working
as soon as they were installed.
Consultation on Estate began in Sept. 1981.
Action Plan agreed June 1982.
Offenders may have altered their offending patterns
due to uncertainty over changes to Estate.
Proposed legislation on compulsory testing of blood
alcohol levels presented in Dec. 1965.
Law became effective in Oct. 1967.
Drivers may have thought that the law had gone into
effect when the legislation was discussed in 1965.
6. Study
Squires
(1998b)
Tilley and
Hopkins
(1998)
Location
Burgess Hill,
Sussex, UK
Belgrave,
Leicester, UK
Intervention
CCTV system
Tailored alarm or
detection mea-
surer or security
advice
Anticipatory
Benefits
Criminal damage -
Jan. 1997
Shoplifting &
All crime -
Feb. 1997
Non-domestic
burglary dropped in
fourth quarter 1995
Possible Explanation
CCTV operational April 1997.
"All crime" drop attributed to the visibility of the
CCTV installation work.
Sharp pre-operational drop in shop- lifting attributed
to other policing factors (not CCTV).
Princess Anne announced initiative designed to
assist small businesses in third quarter 1995.
The initiative began during second quarter 1996.
Offenders may have thought initiative began when
announced.
7. Anticipatory Benefits in Crime Prevention
This anticipatory effect seems also to be a feature of CCTV
schemes. Figure 2 shows such an effect_ in Burnley (see Armitage et
al., 1999). The two lines in that figure represent the proportion of
projected cameras not installed (solid line) and the amount of re-
corded crime (dashed line), both indexed to 100 at the scheme's in-
ception. It will be seen that the bulk of the crime decline coincided
with the first few cameras installed, the last 75% being associated
with only a trivial further decline. The crime decline anticipated the
first camera installation by a month. Similar pre-operational declines
appeared in Newcastle-upon-Tyne (Brown, 1995) and Burgess Hill
(Squires, 1998b) (see Table 1).
- 7 7 -
8. Martha J. Smith, Ronald V. Clarke and Ken Pease
The evaluation of a Home Office burglary reduction programme
across many sites shows strong anticipatory benefits (Northern Con-
sortium, 2001).2 The Consortium studied 21 burglary reduction ini-
tiatives, of which 19 showed reductions. Of this 19, seven showed
steep reductions in burglary levels prior '.o projects being launched.
In the Northern Consortium report (2001) some post hoc sugges-
tions are made about the reasons for the anticipatory decline, (such
as a survey of the public that provides. police with a fuller under-
standing of presenting crime problems), but in no case are they ex-
haustive or made with confidence.
Among other studies, Tilley and Hopkins (1998) showed a crime
decline coinciding with the announcement of the initiative in the Bel-
grave section of Leicester. Poyner et al. (1986) recorded a crime de-
cline following public consultation abou = crime reduction on the Pe-
pys Estate. Ross (1973) showed a decline in the number of charges of
failing to stop after an accident after breath test legislation was dis-
cussed in the media.
WHY DO ANTICIPATORY BENEFITS ACCRUE?
What are the possible reasons for anticipatory effects. They in-
clude:
(1) Effects caused by the smoothing of curves using moving aver-
ages. Such effects would be limited to very short-run antici-
pations and can be discounted as a major factor;
(2) Changes caused by over-recording crime levels in expectation
of gaining funding to reduce the crime levels thus inflated.
Such effects should be detectable by contrary changes in
events uprated to the crime of fecal concern (e.g., a decrease
in the numbers of criminal damage crimes as those events
are "promoted" to attempted burglary);
(3) Seasonal effects masking the absence of change; where an
initiative takes effect at the same time as a seasonally pre-
dictable decline. This is possible because action is likely at a
time when matters are at their worst;
(4) Regression effects, where a place chosen for intervention be-
cause it is extreme relative to other places is also extreme
relative to itself at other times, and will thus tend to experi-
ence declines over time;
(5) Creeping implementation, where some elements of a pro-
gramme are put in place before an official start date;
(6) Preparation-disruption effects, where surveillance is a by-
product of installation of crime-reductive hardware, such as
street lighting;
- 7 8 -
9. Anticipatory Benefits in Crime Prevention
(7) Preparation-training effects, where planning, population sur-
veys, etc. render officers better equipped personally to un-
derstand and reduce local crime;
(8) Motivation of officers involved to make an initiative a success,
which translates itself into better performance in advance of
the initiative itself;
(9) Preparation-anticipation effects, where equipment is deemed
by motivated offenders to be operational before it is;
(10) Publicity/disinformation effects, whereby covert measures are
presumed to exist as a result of publicity or hearsay.
PUBLICITY/ DISINFORMATION EFFECTS
In the limited scope of this chapter, we should direct our attention
to the alternative which, were it true, would have the most profound
implications. This is number 10 on the list above, namely the public-
ity/disinformation alternative. We should be clear that we are not
here talking about generalised publicity campaigns, whose effect has
typically been found to be meagre (Burrows and Heal 1980; Riley
1980), but of information that the police or other agencies are taking
action of specific kinds in circumscribed places.
First, an anecdote illustrates the possible effect (Laycock 2001),
discussing the effects of property marking:
...as the year wore on it was clear that the burglary rate was
starting to creep up again and I expected it to carry on going to
its previous level. I was not therefore best pleased to be told by
my then boss that he wanted a second year follow up. I knew
what would happen.
But I uncharacteristically did as I was told and in the second
year the rate went down even further, but all the reduction was
concentrated in the second half of the year. In fact it was al-
most zero from June. What happened? Well, it was June of the
second year before the report of the first year was published.
And the fact that crime had gone down was heavily reported in
the local and national press. There were TV crews and press
interviewers. The project was written up in the Times as a big
success. Despite all my careful caveats, property marking was
declared "to work." And the burglars read the newspapers and
saw the Chief Constable on TV like everyone else.
10. Martha J. Smith, Ronald V. Clarke and Ken Pease
A study of police decoy vehicles (Sailybanks, 2000) has the un-
usual feature of deployment of such vehicles in advance of publicity.
Figure 3 summarises the results.
It shows that vehicle crime in Stockton, where the initiative ran,
was marginally below that elsewhere in the Cleveland force area
(April '97-March '98). The drop lines showed where the action and
the publicity kicked in respectively. It will be seen that the crime
control effect became more marked when publicity alone took place.
Taken at face value, this may suggest :hat publicity about a police
initiative is more effective than the substance of the project. This is
probably an oversimplification, since the initiative itself (with the
communication of arrests effected as part of it) may have sensitised
the community to activity, which enhanced the effect of later public-
ity. Put crudely, the Stockton experience perhaps shows that public-
ity may be effective only insofar as levels of activity make it plausible.
SO WHAT?
The perceptual underpinnings of prevention have been too little
reflected in its evaluation. If perception is indeed central, change in
crime rates will coincide with changed perception rather than
changed practice, when these are not coincident in time. In the typi-
cal crime reduction initiative, crimes committed before and after the
introduction of a reductive programme has been introduced are
summed and contrasted. This approach is almost universally the de-
sign to which an evaluator is reduced when the scale of the initiative
is limited, since any graphed representation, being based on small
numbers of crimes, is erratic. However, as shown above, in those ex-
amples where a curve has been calculated, a common sequence is for
the crime decline to begin before it becomes possible that it is an ef-
fect of the supposed active ingredient. In such cases, the reduction
may better be regarded as the result of changes in perception.
We have demonstrated:
• that many crime reduction programmes exhibit effects too
early for them to be attributed to the "obvious" active ingredi-
ent;
• that the conventional form of before-after analysis brought to
bear on crime reduction initiatives serves to disguise such
anticipatory effects, which seem to be very widespread;
• that there exists a variety of possible reasons for anticipatory
effects; and
- 8 0 -
11.
12. Martha J. Smith, Ronald V. Clarke and Ken Pease
• that although the design of programmes does not typically al-
low one to distinguish among the range of possible explana-
tions, some studies appear to have effects driven by public-
ity/disinformation.
The reader should know that the authors agonised about what to
call the phenomenon whereby crime reductive benefits occur "too
early." The primary reason for the choice of "anticipatory benefits" is
to make explicit the parallel with diffusion of crime control benefits,
which refers to:
...the spread of the beneficial influence of an intervention be-
yond the places which are directly targeted, the individuals
who are the subject of control, the crimes which are the focus
of intervention or the time periods in which an intervention is
brought (Clarke and Weisburd 1994:169).3
The advantage of the chosen term is that the practical implication
of anticipatory benefits is identical to that of diffusion of benefits
generally, namely:
Recognition of diffusion ... provides an opportunity for maxi-
mising crime control benefits. If the processes that lead to dif-
fusion could be identified, crime prevention programmes de-
signed to harness this phenomenon could be more clearly de-
fined (Clarke and Weisburd 1994:169).
The term's disadvantage lies in its lack of neutrality with respect
to the presumed mechanism of change. "Anticipatory benefits" fail to
call into question the assumption that the initiative whose effects
were diffused incorporated the active ingredient in the change. The
reader, in accepting the term "anticipatory benefits " should remain
aware of its crucial distinguishing characteristic, namely that it does
call into question the assumed mechanism of change in away that
other types of diffusion of benefit do not. To say that a crime preven-
tion initiative lowers crime earlier than it "should" is to say nothing
about the mechanism whereby it does this, other than that the reali-
sation of plans was not a necessary condition for crime control. In
this respect, anticipatory benefits are far more threatening to settled
beliefs about what reduces crime than are other diffusion types.
What should we now do? Insofar as crime reduction can be
achieved before one has done anything, how much crime prevention
can be achieved without doing anything beyond triggering anticipa-
tory benefits? Answering this question requires a different kind of
prevention research, where the active ingredient is explicitly prepa-
ration, assertion or publicity. Imagine a campaign asserting that de-
13. Anticipatory Benefits in Crime Prevention
coy cars will be deployed on the basis of their thievability, with illus-
trations of three vehicles known to be frequently stolen and described
as decoy vehicles, with an account of the use of one such car to effect
an arrest. An intending car thief would be in an approach-avoidance
conflict. He selects a car to steal. In the very act of selecting it, it is
defined as a thievable car and therefore one which may be a decoy.
Testing the effectiveness of an approach such as this would be a first
step. The programme following the success of such an approach
would entail work on how far one can stretch the schedule of rein-
forcement, i.e., how often one could get away with saying decoy vehi-
cles are deployed in relation to actually mounting such operations.
One illustration of how little the police think in terms of disinfor-
mation is their use of the word "informant." The word is in principle
direction-neutral. It does not say who is being informed about the
actions of whom. In practice, the understanding of the word is uni-
directional. The informant tells the police what putative offenders are
doing. It could be the other way round, telling putative offenders
about what the police wish them to think is happening. Similarly the
cliche used to describe the work of Neighbourhood Watch is that it
forms extra "eyes and ears" for the police. This too depicts the polic-
ing enterprise as an information sponge, rather than as a dispenser
of information.; This contrasts with espionage, where a more sophis-
ticated, layered approach to the deliberate supply of (dis) information
goes along with intelligence gathering.
The underlying ethical question needs to be addressed squarely.
This approach involves the police in lying or exaggeration. Whether
that is defensible is no doubt a matter for debate. How different it is
from disguising the true state of affairs in covert operations is also
worthy of discussion. To allow the argument to be developed, the po-
sition is taken here that dissembling is here justified in that it pres-
ents a closer approximation to a state of affairs to which the public
would choose to subscribe. It thus goes along with deceits which ex-
aggerate police strengths covering an area, or levels of usage of foren-
sic investigation.
Effects around a programme's onset should be considered along-
side effects around its termination. In the same way that effects an-
tedate onset, so they extend beyond offset. Sherman's (1990) review
of police crackdowns suggests, to simplify, periods of quiescence after
the crackdown which approximate the crackdown in length. We may
speculate that, in the same way as anticipatory effects presume pre-
ventive measures to be already in place, residual effects after crack-
downs lead people to assume that measures remain in place. We may
thus speculate on the perfect, virtually cost-free, crime reduction
tactic, in which false information yields anticipatory crime preven-
-- 83 —
14. Martha J. Smith, Ronald V. Clarke and Ken Pease
tion, and reduction is maintained after the fictional initiative would
realistically have ended. This post (fictional) crackdown period can be
used to consolidate effects achieved.
Address correspondence to: Martha J. Smith, Cardiff University, School of
Social Sciences, Glamorgan Building, King Edward VII Avenue, Cardiff,
Wales CF10 3WT, UK. E-mail: <SmithM8@cardiff.ac.uk>.
REFERENCES
Each reference marked:
"+" reports a case that is sufficiently detailed but which shows
no effects of anticipatory diffusion;
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"+++" shows anticipatory diffusion for reasons set out in the pa-
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++Braga, A.A. and R.V. Clarke (1994). "Improved Radios and More
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+Bridgeman, C. (1997). "Preventing Pay Phone Damage. " In: M. Felson
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(1998b). CCTV and Crime Reduction in Burgess Hill Town Centre:
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NOTES
1. Some studies contained more than one usable comparison.
2. A fuller account of this important work will be published, under
authorship of Alex Hirschfield, Kate Bowers and Shane Johnson. These
scholars have long been aware of anticipatory diffusion benefits.
3. The temporal diffusion of benefits discussed by Clarke and Weisburd
concerns residual effects rather than anticipatory effects. They link this
phenomenon with the carryover of the effect of police crackdowns
(Sherman, 1990).
4. Of course, this is a simplification. There are examples of the police
dispensing information about crime risks (see, for example, Canter,
1998).