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State of the Global Mobile Industry
                           Annual Assessment - 2012




Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.


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Table of Contents


•   Global Mobile State of the Union - 2012
•   Mobile Impacts Everything
•   Mobile Subscriber and Revenue Growth
•   Global Markets – Data Growth
•   Devices – Changing Landscape
•   Mobile VAS and OTT
•   Mobile Data Traffic Growth and Solutions
•   Intellectual Property
•   Global Markets – Competitive Dynamics
•   2012 Expectations


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Global Mobile State of the Union 2012
   1.   Total Global Mobile Revenues to hit $1.5 Trillion in 2012, over 2% of Global GDP
        –   Top 10 operators control 42% of the global data mobile revenues
   2.   Mobile Services Revenue exceeded $1 Trillion for the first time in 2011
        –   The number of mobile operators with > $1 Billion in yearly data revenues will touch 50 in 2012
   3.   Total Global Mobile Data Revenues went past $300 Billion in 2011
        –   Non-messaging data now owns 53% of the global mobile data revenues
   4.   Mobile Operator Profits have more than doubled over the last 10 years
        –   However, the wealth is not divided evenly. Asia’s share has tripled at the expense of Europe whose profit share has declined by 50%.
   5.   Total Global Subscriptions to exceed 7 Billion in early 2013
        –   China exceeds 1 Billion, India 950 Million. Subscriber growth is in Asia, Revenue growth is in Asia+North America
   6.   China and India represent 27% of subscriptions but only 12% of the global service revenues
        –   US represents only 6% of the subscriptions but 21% of the global service revenues, 26% of the data revenues, and 27% of the global
            CAPEX
   7.   Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue
        –   70% of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement cycle is shrinking
   8.   Samsung and Apple now account for 50% of the smartphone unit share and 90% of the profit share
        –   Difficult environment for other OEMs esp. when ZTE and Huawei are coming strong from the bottom. It will be difficult for pure play
            device OEMs to survive long-term
   9.   Tablets (iPads) has created a new computing paradigm that is having a significant impact on commerce,
        content consumption, and developer investments
        –   Apple will continue to dominate the segment and iOS will be the leading OS for the segment. Amazon, ZTE, Huawei, to chip away at
            the sub-$200 tier




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Global Mobile State of the Union 2012
cont’d
10. Mobile Broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations, first time data is leading
    the charge
     –   Over 1.5 Billion broadband connections by 2012
11. Global Mobile Apps revenue has completely (and irreversibly) tilted to off-deck
     –   The decline is directly proportional to the increase in smartphone penetration by region
12. All major markets are consolidating with the top 3 players at 85% of the market
     –   Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth
13. Mobile data traffic 2x YOY in most markets. Mobile Data will be 95% of the global mobile traffic by 2015
     –   Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next 2-3 years (in certain markets)
14. Mobile Signaling takes up 2x the resources as Mobile Data Traffic
     –   Signaling traffic is growing faster than the data traffic on broadband networks
15. Connected device segment is growing at the fastest pace in the western markets
     –   Operators will have to quickly adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this segment
16. Several multi-billion dollar opportunity segments are emerging
     –   Mobile Advertising, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Wellness, Mobile Games, and Mobile Cloud Computing to name a few
17. Mobile Ecosystem has become very dynamic and unpredictable
     –   The 5 Platform Amigos – Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook dominate though the first two have the real power
18. Mobile Operator Revenue is under pressure from OTT Players
     –   OTT Share of the Global Mobile Revenues increased to 4%




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Global Mobile State of the Union 2012
cont’d
 19. OTT players forcing operators to up their game
       –   Operators are partnering, launching their own OTT apps, increasing tariffs to manage the margins
 20. Intellectual Property has become a key component of long-term product strategy
       –   21% of all patents granted in US are mobile related. Top 20 control 1/3rd of the overall mobile patent pool
 21. Mobile Patent Rankings: US – IBM, Microsoft, Nokia. Europe – Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia, Samsung. Overall
     – Nokia, Samsung, Alcatel-Lucent
       –   OEMs – Nokia, Samsung, Sony. Service Providers – AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, Sprint
 22. In 3-5 years, with few exceptions, if a company is not doing majority of its digital business on mobile, it
     is going to be irrelevant
       –   Majority (by a good margin) of the consumer interactions with brands will be on mobile
 23. Mobile has become the single most important digital channel for engaging consumers and it shows
       –   In the US, mobile revenues were > all Ecommerce And > Music, ISP, Hollywood, and Cable revenues combined
 24. We have entered the mobile 3.0 era where “data” is all that matters and it disrupts the value chains
       –   Data will drive majority of the network growth, Contextual data will drive majority of the VAS growth
 25.   There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100
       –   The value chains will keep disrupting every 12-18 months by the new players and business models. Several verticals are
           already getting redefined e.g. retail, health, education, etc.




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Key Industry Micro-Milestones
  •   Apple captures 70% of mobile device profits – defies gravity, obliterates competition
  •   Apple mobile appstore downloads exceed 25 Billion, 100 Million on Mac – redefines
      distribution/ecosystem
  •   Samsung ends Nokia’s 14 year reign as the device king – brutal execution
  •   Android 300M activations – Juggernaut
  •   Paypal does $7B in mobile transaction volume
  •   Square does $5B in commerce transaction volume
  •   Google > $5B in mobile revenues
  •   Microsoft revenues from Android > Windows Mobile
  •   Pandora’s 70% usage is on mobile, Twitter’s 60% of the usage is on mobile – heading
      towards a mobile-dominant world
  •   Facebook Instagram Acquisition $1B – Mobile only acquisition to beef up mobile
      strategy
  •   Angry Birds approaches a billion downloads
  •   ESPN does 3.1 billion minutes on mobile in 3/12 – Mobile is where the action is
  •   Skype traffic over 150 billion minutes – OTT pressure




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Key Industry Micro-Milestones cont’d

 •   KPN messaging volumes decline 15% YOY – OTT pressure
 •   Mobile Security threats grow 7x in last two years, Android threats up 3000% – Mobile IS IT
 •   Cisco BYOD ratio – 70% (up 52% in 2011) - BYOD is creating new opportunities for vendors
 •   US data traffic over 130 quadrillion bytes/month in 2011 – Data traffic 2X YOY, welcome to
     the yottabyte era
 •   Fandango sells quarter of its ticket on mobile – commerce is happening
 •   Expedia does > $1B in mobile commerce – see above
 •   Microsoft Nokia Multi-Billion partnership – It takes two to tango
 •   Lightsquared fails – Keep your friends close, enemies closer
 •   Google Motorola $12.5B – IP becomes key to strategy
 •   Nortel Patent acquisition $4.5B – IP becomes key to strategy
 •   AT&T/T-Mobile Failure – DOJ/FCC put down the gavel
 •   40% of Kenya’s GDP comes from mobile money – impact of mobile is pervasive
 •   Millennial Media IPO at $2B – first public market validation of the mobile advertising space
 •   HP gives up on Palm – Competition forces Corporate Schizophrenia




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MOBILE IMPACTS EVERYTHING
Mobile Apps and Services


Mobile is fundamentally reshaping how we as consumers
spend from housing and healthcare to entertainment and
travel, from food and drinks to communication and
transportation. Mobile not only influences purchase behavior
but also post purchase opinions. When the share button is
literally a second away, consumers are willingly sharing more
information than ever before.
Mobile is thus helping close the nirvana gap for brands and
advertisers who seek to connect advertising to actual
transactions. The long-term battle is however for owning the
context of the users. Having the best knowledge about the
user to help drive the transaction is the simply the most
valuable currency of commerce. The day is not far when
mobile commerce will dominate all digital commerce.

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Mobile is the single most pervasive
technology ever invented




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Mobile impacts all Maslow levels


                                                                 % of Average Spend




                                                                       15%
                                                     Self




                                                                       35%
                                                   Safety




                                                                       50%

                                                 Physiological




                                   Source: US Department of Commerce
Mobile is now 50% of the household IT
budget
Context – the most valuable currency
    in mobile
                                            Demographics/Explicit
                                                  Profile

                      Interests/Implicit Profile                                                                                       Browsing, Watching,
                                                                                                                                       Previewing, Flipping

                Sensor data
                                                                                                                                                 Purchasing, Payments

                User Intent

                                                                                                                                                       Communications
        Location
                                                                                   Trusted Concierge
      Presence                                                                                                                                                 Search (Local, Online,
                                                                                                                                                                      Media)

Physiological
 parameters
                                                                     Knowledge                                  Transactions
                                                                                           DRIVES
                                                                    (about User)                                 (from User)
      Calendar                                                                                                                                                      User Experience



      Address Book
                                                                                                                                                                        Gifting

      Social Community

                                                                                   Trusted Advisor                                                                Advertising
     Intellectual Community


                          M2M                                                                                                                                 Pricing


                      Preferences
                                                                                                                                         Security/Authorization

                      Devices in the vicinity

                                                                                            Big Opportunities in becoming the trusted
                                                3 Party Sources
                                                 rd

                                                                                            Concierge/Advisor to the individual user
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MOBILE SUBSCRIBER AND REVENUE
GROWTH
The Big Picture
•    The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total
     revenue in the industry to touch approximately $1.5 Trillion in 2012 with mobile data representing
     28% of the mix. Mobile data services revenue stood at 33%. Global Mobile Data revenues eclipsed
     $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the first year in which non-messaging data revenues
     will make up the majority of the overall global data revenues at 53%.
•    By the end of 2011, the global subscriptions exceeded 6 Billion. The first 1 billion took over 20 years
     and this last one took only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and China which are
     cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. China became the first country to eclipse the 1
     billion mark in March 2012. India is likely to arrive at the milestone by early 2013.
•    Smartphones are driving tremendous growth around the globe. Amongst the major markets, US
     leads with 69% sales. The global figure stands at approximately 32%. Some operators expect 90-
     95% of their device sales to be smartphones in 2012. In terms of the actual smartphone
     penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012.
•    China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of
     emerging nations are now in top 10 – Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once
     dominant – Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.
•    The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 50 in 2012.
     This number was only at 13 in 2005.




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Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011
                    Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2012

                                                                                                                  Global
                                                                                                               Subscriptions




                                                                                                                  Global
                                                                                                                Smartphone
                                                                                                                  Users




                                                                                                               Global Data
                                                                                                                  Users




                                                                                                                                       © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2012
                                                                                                                Global SMS
                                                                                                                   Users




                                                                                                               Global Mobile
                                                                                                                Broadband
                                                                                                                   Users




                                            Each dude represents approximately 113 million humans on planet Earth
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Global Mobile Technology Evolution




                           First time, data is leading the charge


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Global Mobile Industry continues to
   grow at a healthy pace


• Non Operator OTT Revenues at 4%
• Voice will fall below 50% in 2012
• Messaging revenues still growing
  but flattening growth
• Access revenues are growing quicker
  than any other operator segment




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Mobile is over 2% of Global GDP




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Operators around the world are
benefiting from mobile data



                                                       50 operators with > $1B in data revs




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Global Mobile Industry Growth




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Top 10 global mobile data operators –
US, Japan, China Dominate




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Global Mobile Leaders - 2012


Rank   By Subs                            By Total Revenue                             By Data Revenue
1      China                              US                                           US
2      India                              China                                        Japan
3      US                                 Japan                                        China
4      Russia                             Brazil                                       France
5      Brazil                             France                                       UK
6      Indonesia                          Russia                                       Korea
7      Japan                              UK                                           Italy
8      Pakistan                           Germany                                      Germany
9      Germany                            Italy                                        Australia
10     Mexico                             India                                        Brazil



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Global Mobile Leaders - 2012


Rank   By Sub Penetration               By ARPU                                      By Data Usage
1      Hong Kong                        Japan                                        Sweden
2      Finland                          Canada                                       Finland
3      Portugal                         Switzerland                                  Hong Kong
4      Austria                          US                                           US
5      Singapore                        Norway                                       Denmark
6      Sweden                           Australia                                    Canada
7      Denmark                          France                                       Australia
8      Greece                           Netherlands                                  New Zealand
9      Germany                          Singapore                                    Austria
10     Switzerland                      Israel                                       Belgium



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Biggest Telecom Groups


Rank   By Subs                          By Data Revenue                            By NM Data Revenue
1      China Mobile                     Verizon Wireless                           AT&T Mobility
2      Vodafone                         NTT DoCoMo                                 NTT DoCoMo
3      Telefonica                       AT&T Mobility                              Verizon Wireless
4      Bharti Airtel                    China Mobile                               China Mobile
5      America Movil                    Vodafone                                   Vodafone
6      Orange                           Sprint Nextel                              Sprint Nextel
7      China Unicom                     KDDI                                       KDDI
8      Vimplecom                        Telefonica                                 Telefonica
9      TeliaSonera                      Softbank                                   T-Mobile
10     Reliance                         T-Mobile                                   Softbank



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US at the epicenter of mobile growth


• 2% net-adds, 6% total subs but 21% of service
  revenues, 26% of data revenues, and 27% of
  global CAPEX
• Networks: LTE/HSPA+ - Most broadband
  customers
• Smartphones: Over 70% of the devices sold
  (more than twice the global average)
• Applications: Billions of downloads (#1)
• Pricing: Per Bit, Per Minute, Per Message lowest
  in developed world


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US – Mobile is the most dominant
digital channel




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Race to a Billion – China won




               Corruption drags down growth




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China+India in Mobile




             China+India account for 37% of the global population


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China regains momentum & the lead




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GLOBAL MARKETS: DATA GROWTH
US, Japan lead in revenues;
China, India in subscriptions

• Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo,
  KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile data
  revenue and data as a % of total ARPU. Country average is now at
  60%.
• Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last two
  years. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much
  further ahead than any other nation due to the size of the market.
• While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world
  right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down right
  anemic compared to other major markets with average dropping
  down to $2.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriber
  base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the
  market for the next couple of years relative to other markets.




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Mobile Internet 3.0 – Data as growth
engine
                                                            Mobile Internet - Leading Global Operators (2011)
                                 $40




                                                                                                                          3.0
                                                                                                                                                        Softbank Japan
                                                                                                                                                NTT DoCoMo
                                 $30                                                                                                                   KDDI
        Mobile Data ARPU (USD)




                                                                         2.0
                                                                                                                                Telstra
                                                                                          Vodafone Italy         3 Australia
                                 $20                                                             Rogers            Verizon
                                                                                                        Sprint           3 Sweden
                                                                                                            AT&T
                                                                                                    O2 Germany   Singtel
                                            1.0
                                                                                                 Orange France




                                                                                                                                                                               © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2012
                                                                                         SFR          T-Mobile US
                                                                                                              T-Mobile Netherlands
                                                                       Bouygues               SK Telecom
                                 $10                                                                                                O2 UK
                                                                                                                KT
                                                                                           T-Mobile Austria               3 UK Vodafone UK
                                                                                Telefonica
                                                                  Vodafone Spain                  TIM                       3 Italy
                                                    Vodafone Germany               T-Mobile UKT-Mobile Germany
                                                                                   Orange UK
                                                                                                  China Mobile
                                                                         Turkcell                   China Unicom
                                                        Vodafone India AIS                                                           SMART
                                                           Bharti      Reliance
                                  $-
                                       0%                          15%                             30%                                    45%                            60%
                                                                                      Mobile Data as % of Total ARPU
                                       Source: http://chetansharma.com/Mobile_Internet_3.htm


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All major markets experiencing data
growth – Japan, Australia, US leading




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Operators seek new sources of revenue




                                                                                                  ARPU
                                                                                                                                                                                                 New Service Revenue
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Operators can generate
                                                                                                                                                             Messaging                                                                                                      new revenue streams by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            focusing on the long-tail
 Revenue in Billions




                                                                                                                                                               Access
                                          Direction of Revenue Growth

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            of VAS Verticals
                                                                                                                                                               Voice
                                                          Cloud - Enterprise




                                                                                                                                     Today                                  Tomorrow




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2012
                                                                               Cloud - Consumer


                                                                                                         Mobile Advertising


                                                                                                                              Transportation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Energy & Smart Grid
                                                                                                                                               Hospitality


                                                                                                                                                                 Wellness




                                                                                                                                                                                      Payments
                                           Messaging




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Industrial
                                                                                                                                                                             Health
                               Access
                       Voice




                                                                                                                                                                                             Service and Application Areas




                                        Source: http://chetansharma.com/Mobile_Internet_3.htm




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DEVICES: CHANGING LANDSCAPE
Devices – Apple, Android Dominate

•   Apple has had the tablet space to itself. Thus far the response from the competitors has been tepid esp. on the
    pricing dimension. Apple has had such a mastery over the supply-chain and months ahead of the competition
    that by the time they figure out details, Apple already locks up the pricing advantage for the cycle. OEMs try to
    catch-up on the features but can’t do on the margins. OEMs can grow the pie by bringing products at a better
    price points that helps attract different demographics to the mix. Microsoft can make good inroads into the
    space with its Win8 tablet release in 2012 but it will be again in a catch-up mode as the iOS ecosystem will be
    even more robust by then. The cheaper Android tablets will do well in the market. As expected, tablets will
    pretty much eliminate the need for netbooks and are starting to eat into the desktop/laptop revenue.
•   Apple and Samsung are strong on the top. Huawei and ZTE are coming up strong from the bottom. The middle
    tier players will have a tough time going forward.
•   It will be difficult for pureplay device OEMs to survive long-term.
•   Nokia and RIM are under severe market scrutiny as investors and developers leave in droves. Lack of product
    planning and execution has left their market share in disarray. Nokia’s valuation has been cut into half. Nokia’s
    release of N9 shows the engineering and creative design depth but a lot is riding on the first generation of
    Nokia Windows Phones (Lumia). While the market hasn’t shown much appetite for Windows phone thus far, a
    good family of devices might be able to slow the loss trajectory and position the combined team for the up-for-
    grabs 3rd spot in the ecosystem. Given that the computing is shifting to mobile devices, we can expect some of
    the weaker desktop/laptop players will exit the industry.
•   Majority of the tablet use is in the WiFi mode because the primary use case is indoors and WiFi gives a better
    (and cheaper) user experience. However, of the users who use cellular, the churn is low. Once operators start to
    roll out user-friendly family data plans across multiple devices, we can expect the cellular activation go higher
    (e.g. Rogers, Vodafone Spain) but will still be dominated by WiFi overall.


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Mobile Devices are dominating the
Computing Ecosystem




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US leading in smartphone sales




         US accounts for roughly 40% of the smartphone sales worldwide




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Smartphones driving data growth




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Samsung reaches the top of the hill
in market share, Nokia struggling




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Apple and Samsung control 50% of the unit
smartphone sales. Nokia’s share decimated.




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Connected devices come in all shapes
and sizes

                                                     High

                  Data Cards/Embedded
                                                                             Superphones
                             Tablets
           Video Cameras




                                                  Data Consumption
        Automotive                                                                Smartphones
                   Cameras


                              eReaders

             Picture Frames
       Low                                                                                                        High

                                                                                   Number of Units in Market
                                                                                                         Feature Phones




                                                                                                                               © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011
     Digital Signage/Kiosks
               Security Sensors
             Health Monitors
        Copiers, Scanners, Printers
                               Wellness Devices
           Home Sensors
                            Asset Tracking
           Energy Meters
                                    Vending
           Grid Sensors
                                                             Low



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AT&T – Connected Devices Growth




Postpaid growth is slowing down in western markets, Connected device segment growing fastest




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US Tablet Launches in 2011




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US Tablet Market




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Competing with iPad




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Platform players – 5 Amigos of mobile


            Strengths                                           Weaknesses
Apple       Step ahead of the competition.                      Pressure on the operator margins
            Vertical Integration, Brand loyalty, Dev
            revenues, Commerce, Distribution
Google      Broad adoption. Broad Support. Open                 Fragmentation. Dev revenues. Lack of
            dev platform. Ambitious                             clear device strategy. Regulatory
                                                                microscope
Amazon      Deep understanding of the user,                     New to the device arms race, Lack of
            Content, Commerce, Distribution,                    OS
            Margin master
Microsoft   Bank balance, Operators want a 3rd                  Late to mobile party, Lack of mobile
            ecosystem                                           execution
Facebook    ~ 1 B users, 500 M mobile                           Lack of coherent mobile strategy, Lack
                                                                of OS



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Apple dominates the platform ecosystem

                                                  Apple                        The overall market is basically iOS
                                                                               and Android.

                                                                               Apple marketcap > Microsoft
                                                                               + Google + Facebook or Amazon
  Marketcap




              Microsoft




                                                                                      © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2012
                                                          Google




                                                                   Facebook
                                Amazon




                                            Users


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VAS AND OTT
The Big Picture
• The traditional operator revenue streams of
   –   Voice – declining and under threat from VoIP
   –   Messaging – flattening/declining and under threat from IP messaging
   –   Access – rising but margins are shrinking fast
   –   VAS – declining in proportion to the growth of smartphones
• Operators are fighting back with
   – Voice – launching their own VoIP apps e.g. Bobsled from T-Mobile,
     partnering with VoIP players e.g. Skype integration, charging for VoIP
     apps e.g. TeliaSonera €6/month
   – Messaging – launching their own IP messaging apps e.g. Huddle from
     AT&T, partnering with IP messaging players e.g. Whatsapp partnership
   – Access – Tiering
   – VAS – launch their own VAS apps and industry vertical apps and
     services


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Smartphones are enabling Offdeck to
dominate app revenue




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Some operators are starting to see
the decline in messaging revenues
           Some operators in Europe are also seeing declines in messaging revenue




                                         Total SMS Volumes still increasing
                                         but revenue in decline




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SMS Growth – US takes over Philippines




    Philippines SMS volumes/sub declining precipitously due to the rise in IP messaging


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Mobile Advertising: All verticals
participating




          http://www.chetansharma.com   55   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Promising Segments. Leading Companies


 • Advertising – Google, Millennial Media
 • Payments/Commerce – Paypal, Square, Google,
   Amazon
 • Gaming – Microsoft, Rovio
 • Enterprise – AT&T, Salesforce
 • M2M – Vodafone, AT&T, Ericsson
 • Identity – Facebook, Google, Twitter
 • Cloud – Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Salesforce
 • Wellness/Health – Qualcomm, Fitbit, Mobisante

                                                                                                       Sampling Only
           http://www.chetansharma.com   56   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH
Mobile Data Traffic Growth


• In most western markets, data traffic is
  doubling YOY
• Sweden, Finland, Hong Kong, and US make the
  top 4 in terms of MB consumed per capita
• A Multi-pronged approach is needed to have a
  sustainable strategy long term




         http://www.chetansharma.com   58   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Only a holistic strategy to deal with data
tsunami can help the operators long-term

  •   As a result of the data tsunami, there are two types of opportunities that are being
      created, one that take advantage of the data being generated in a way that enhances
      the user experience and provides value and the other in technologies that help manage
      the traffic data that will continue to grow exponentially.
  •   To be able to stay ahead of the demand, significant planning needs to go in to deal with
      the bits and bytes that are already exploding. New technical and business solutions will
      be needed to manage the growth and profit from the services. Relying on only one
      solution won’t be an effective strategy to manage rising data demand. A holistic
      approach to managing data traffic is needed and our analysis shows that the cost
      structure can be reduced by more than half if a suite of solutions are deployed vs. a
      single dimensional approach and thus bringing the hockey stick curves of data cost
      more in line with the revenues and thus preserving the margins.
  •   The decision making process within the operator organizations will need to be
      streamlined as well. Operators should also consider creating a senior post which
      focuses on both the cost side and the solution side so they can devise and institute a
      sustainable long-term policy and keep the margins healthy.



                  http://www.chetansharma.com   59   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Wireless seeing unprecedented growth (US)
US Mobile Data Traffic is doubling
every year




          http://www.chetansharma.com   61   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Margin preservation key to all
operator strategies




          http://www.chetansharma.com   62   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Managing data margins will be top
     priority for all operators


                        50%




                                                                                                  m
                                                                                                iu
                                                                                                                                                       Philippines




                                                                                             br
                                                                                          ili
                                                                                                                                                                  Japan




                                                                                        qu
                                                                                      cE
                                                                                   ffi
                                                                                 ra
                                                                                -T
                        40%




                                                                              ue
                                                                            en
Data as % of Services




                                                                            v
                                                                         Re
                                                                                                                                                     Australia
                                                                         China
     Revenues




                                                                                                          Indonesia US                     UK
                                                                                                                                                       New Zealand
                        30%                                                                                                 Singapore        Hong Kong
                                                                                                                                    Netherlands      Germany




                                                                                                                                                                                   © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011
                                                                                                                                           Italy        Sweden
                                                                                                                                         Switzerland
                                                                            Mexico             Malaysia                             France Portugal
                        20%                                                                                                 Canada                 Denmark
                                                                                                                                Korea Finland
                                                                                                                         Russia                  Spain

                                                                                                           Brazil                   South Africa
                                                                             India
                        10%                                                                           Argentina




                                                  20%                        40%                       60%                                   80%                           100%
                                                                               Data as % of Overall Network
                                                                                          Traffic
                              Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition
                              http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
                                           http://www.chetansharma.com                63         © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Management of Data Requires
Multiple Strategies
                                             Radio Access Network                                                 Core Network

                                           Mobile Backhaul


                                  Copper

              2G
                                                                                                            Core Network

                                Microwave
              3G


                                     Fiber                                                 RNC                         SGSN                 GGSN

              4G

                                     Light




                                                                                                                                                                Internet Services
                                   Networks

                                                                                                            Offloading Traffic
                                  Optimization

                                                                              Offloading Traffic

        WiFi/FemtoCell                                                                                           Compression/Optimization


                                                       Compression/Optimization of Data Traffic


                                                                    Policy Management


    Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition
    http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
                   http://www.chetansharma.com                      64      © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY WILL REMAIN
KEY TO LONG-TERM PRODUCT AND
COMPETITIVE STRATEGY SUCCESS
IP is critical to long-term product strategy

  • The IP tussles are playing out as expected
  • Players with strong IP portfolios will be able to command better
    negotiating positions, new revenue streams, competitive positioning
    over the long-term
  • On average mobile companies file patents 1.7 times more in the US vs.
    Europe
  • Mobile Patent Leaders in US: IBM, Microsoft, Nokia
  • Mobile Patent Leaders in Europe: Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia, Samsung
  • Mobile Patent Leaders in Infrastructure: Samsung, Alcatel-Lucent,
    Ericsson
  • Mobile Patent Leaders in Devices: Nokia, Samsung, Sony
  • Mobile Patent Leaders in Service Providers: AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, Sprint
  • Top 20 control 1/3rd of the total mobile communications patent pool

                http://www.chetansharma.com   66   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Patent Power Rankings – Mobile Communications
Related Issued Patents 1995-2012


   Rank   US                                    Europe                                            US+Europe
   1      IBM                                   Alcatel-Lucent                                    Nokia
   2      Microsoft                             Nokia                                             Samsung
   3      Nokia                                 Samsung                                           Alcatel-Lucent
   4      Samsung                               Sony                                              Ericsson
   5      Ericsson                              Ericsson                                          Microsoft
   6      Sony                                  RIM                                               IBM
   7      Motorola                              NEC                                               Sony
   8      Intel                                 NTT DoCoMo                                        NEC
   9      Alcatel-Lucent                        Siemens                                           Motorola
   10     Qualcomm                              Qualcomm                                          Qualcomm

                                        Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by
                                        The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesn’t take a look at the quality or the value of the patents

               http://www.chetansharma.com            67       © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Patent Power Rankings – Mobile Communications
Related Issued Patents 1995-2012


   Rank   OEM/Software                          Infrastructure                                    Service Provider
   1      Nokia                                 Samsung                                           AT&T
   2      Samsung                               Alcatel-Lucent                                    NTT DoCoMo
   3      Sony                                  Ericsson                                          Sprint
   4      NEC                                   NEC                                               British Telecom
   5      Motorola                              Motorola                                          Verizon
   6      RIM                                   Qualcomm                                          T-Mobile
   7      Siemens                               Siemens                                           Swisscom
   8      LG                                    LG                                                Telecom Italia
   9      Fujitsu                               Fujitsu                                           SK Telecom
   10     Hitachi                               HP                                                TeliaSonera

                                        Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by
                                        The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesn’t take a look at the quality or the value of the patents

               http://www.chetansharma.com            68       © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
US outpaces Europe in mobile patents




         http://www.chetansharma.com   69   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Nokia, Samsung, and ALU – The big 3




         http://www.chetansharma.com   70   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Mobile Patent Portfolio of leading
mobile players
                                                     Mobile Patent Portfolio of Leading Players
                               100%      Amazon
                                            Google Panasonic
                                   HTC      ZTE
                                         Juniper             Huawei                     RIM
                               90% Lenovo Adobe Apple
                                 EMC     SAP
                                         Telecom Italia
                               80%       SK Telecom                                                                                                 Samsung
                                               Kyocera                             LG
                                        Sprint                 Cisco
                                 Verizon                     Broadcom
                                          Ricoh                                       Qualcomm                                     Microsoft
 % of Patents Issued 2007-12




                               70%     Dell                         NTT DoCoMo Intel
                                          T-Mobile                     AT&T
                                        TeliaSonera                         Fujitsu                                                 Sony
                               60%      Asustek                                                                                            IBM
                                                       Interdigital
                                       Orange                                  Siemens
                               50%                               Hitachi HP
                                           British Telecom                                                                            Ericsson          Nokia
                                                           Philips
                               40%      Swisscom
                                                                                              NEC                              Alcatel-Lucent
                               30%                                                     Motorola

                               20%                    Oracle
                                          Openwave
                               10%
                                                                                                                   © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2012
                                0%
                                      0               2000                   4000            6000                    8000                    10000                   12000
                                                                               Number of Patents Issued 1995-2012




                                               http://www.chetansharma.com             71     © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
IBM, MS lead in US. Nokia, Samsung in
Europe




         http://www.chetansharma.com   72   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Integration of IP with product strategy is
 essential for competitiveness in mobile
                                         NUMERIC
                                         ANALYSIS


                                                                                                                        Improve your PPQ by
                                                                                                                        tight integration with product
                                         SUBJECTIVE                              Patent Portfolio Quotient™
                                          ANALYSIS                   f(Σ)                  (PPQ)
                                                                                                                        strategy

                                          PATENT
                                         PROGRAM
                                         ANALYSIS

R&D, Other
 Sources                 Ideation



                          Market                            Product                          Design and
                                                                                                                                        Public Disclosure
                       Requirements                       Requirements                      Development




                                                                                                                                                                                © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011
                             Licensing



                              IP competitive and
         IP Analysis                                                        IP Protection Process                                                  IP Management
                               risk assessment




                                                               IP driven Product Development Cycle




                       Source: What is your Patent Portfolio Quotient?
                       http://chetansharma.com/patentportfolioquotient.htm
                                      http://www.chetansharma.com           73          © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
GLOBAL MARKETS – COMPETITIVE
DYNAMICS
Changing Ecosystem Dynamics


It is very clear that the ecosystem dynamics can change very quickly,
one just can’t take the competitive and friendly forces for granted. In
the past, the silos and segments were clearly defined with little
overlap. However, over the course of last couple of years, players have
been migrating and surfing in segments across the board - from Apple
to Visa, from P&G to AT&T, from Facebook to Time Warner, from
Google to Best Buy, every company wants to capture the mindshare
and piece of the consumer’s pocketbook.

The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated in
a quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&T’s
business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice,
Amazon is gunning for Microsoft’s enterprise business, so on and so
forth. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in an
instant. And this is only the beginning.


             http://www.chetansharma.com   75   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Competitive Dynamics

•   The Rule of Three is evident in all major markets. While the percentage market share might vary, on an average,
    the top 3 control 93% of the market in an given nation. It doesn’t matter if the market is defined by “controlled
    regulation” like in China, Korea, and Japan or if it is “open market” driven in markets such as the US, UK, and
    India. Eventually, only top 3 operators control the majority of the market. There are niches that others occupy
    but they are largely irrelevant to the overall structure and functioning of the mobile market.
•   Markets such as US and India experienced similar competitive environment in their hyper-growth phase. For the
    US, this phase was in the nineties-mid-2000s while India has been experiencing the similar environment in the
    last 3-4 years. In both cases, at the start there are 5-6 players with no more than 25% market share but higher
    than 10% of the mix but gradually the market forces enable consolidation. Over a period of 18 years, US is
    settling into a “top 3” operator market. India’s brutal price wars are going to trigger the consolidation in the next
    12-24 months and will eventually settle into a structure similar to other markets.
•   The competitive equilibrium point in the mobile industry seems to when the market shares of the top 3 are
    46%:29%:18% respectively with the remaining 7% being allocated to the niche operators. To achieve some
    semblance of equilibrium in the market the top operator shouldn’t have more than 50% of the market share and
    the number three player shouldn’t have less than 20%. This helps create enough balance in the market to derive
    maximum value for the consumer.
•   Mobile operators will face some hard choices in developing and protecting the role they want to play in a given
    region and the ecosystem at-large. The strategy they choose will have a direct impact on the expected EBITDA
    margins, investment required over the long-haul, how investors view them, and on the competitive landscape of
    the country. Given, the fast pace of globalization, new rules and trends might emerge over the course of this
    decade that further define “communications” and “computing” as we know it.




                    http://www.chetansharma.com      76    © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Competitive Landscape in Major Markets




Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets.
http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm




                                http://www.chetansharma.com   77   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Global Mobile Competitive Index




    Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets.
    http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm
                  http://www.chetansharma.com              78   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Eventually all markets consolidate to top 3




        Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets.
        http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm

                    http://www.chetansharma.com           79   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2H 2012
What to expect in 2H 2012
•   More Tiering, faster pace of change of plans. More options, family data plans
•   Cost reduction is as important as revenue generation. More players will align their value-chains and cost structures
•   Facebook IPO is probably going to be the single biggest event in the technology industry in the next few months.
•   Radios will start connecting the digital world with the physical world with significant disruption opportunity
•   Mobile Payment Networks will remain intact for the near future as the ecosystem largely focuses on building value
    on top of the existing exchange platforms
•   The intersection of Social, Location, Identity, and Gaming is creating new opportunities
•   With connectivity becoming pervasive, mobile will fundamentally start to alter the legacy infrastructure – retail,
    health, education, energy, computing, travel, entertainment
•   Significant tablet adoption in the enterprise directly impacting the traditional computer manufacturers
•   Both HTML5 and Apps will continue to grow, the relevancy to any given application will depend on the reach and
    economics requirements. HTML5 is not going to replace Apps.
•   Mobile data growth will double again in 2012. Significant opportunities in managing and understanding of mobile
    data growth
•   Regulators will need to evolve to keep up with the trend to keep their nation globally competitive
•   More IP scuffles before licensing settlements
•   Consolidation of weaker players, more global M&A
•   Significant progress in emerging areas like mHealth, mPayments will come from the developing world while the
    western countries get mired in regulatory and legacy mess
•   Several players face challenging times ahead and 2012 will be critical in their turn around sojourn.



                        http://www.chetansharma.com     81    © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD
MOBILE’S THOUGHT-LEADERSHIP SUMMIT
09.10.12
SEATTLE
WWW.MOBILEFUTUREFORWARD.COM
Discussions to inform your strategy
      •   Is 4G a Game Changer?
      •   Innovation at the Edges
      •   Mobile Payments and Commerce
      •   Disruption is in the air
      •   Mobile Data Services from the Prism of the CIOs
      •   Solving the 50 year Spectrum Crunch
      •   Managing the Network Growth
      •   Opportunities in the Emerging Markets
      •   The Universe of Connected Devices
      •   Analytics - How to Collect, Manage, and Use Data?
      •   Multi-modal Interactions - How Consumers Adapt?
      •   At the Intersection of Social, Mobile, Commerce, Content
      •   Battle for the Home – playing in the n-screen world
      •   What do Developers Want?
      •   A Smarter Planet - The Role of Mobile in Enhancing Lifestyles and in Making Everyday Decisions
      •   Drivers for New Sources of Revenue
      •   Role of Regulations - Spectrum, Privacy, Net-Neutrality
      •   Mobile Cloud Computing
      •   Monetizing the network
      •   From 3 Screens to Multi-screens
      •   Mobile Universe in 2020
                 http://www.chetansharma.com    83    © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
Mobile Executive Summit




                           Sept 10th, 2012
                              Seattle

   Ever wondered what the future of mobile looks like?
    Join us for an extraordinary day of executive mobile brainstorming


        Contact info@mobilefutureforward.com for
          sponsorship and speaking opportunities
             www.mobilefutureforward.com
Mobile Breakfast Series
June 7th – Seattle – Mobile Operators and OTT
          Panel Discussion with AT&T
June 22nd – Atlanta – Connected Devices
          Fireside Chat with David Christopher, CMO, AT&T Mobility
          Panel Discussion with CNN and Synchronoss
June 29th – London – Mobile Operators and OTT
          Panel Discussion with Telefonica, Orange, Rebtel, Horizons Venture




       Excellent Speakers. Invaluable Insights. Peerless Networking.

            Contact info@mobilebreakfastseries.com for
              sponsorship and speaking opportunities

                    www.mobilebreakfastseries.com
We look forward to hearing from you


Chetan Sharma                                       Mobile Future Forward
chetan@chetansharma.com                             info@mobilefutureforward.com
TW: @chetansharma                                   TW: @mfutureforward
http://www.chetansharma.com                         http://www.mobilefutureforward.com




   Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.



              http://www.chetansharma.com   86   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.

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Annual state of_global_mobile_industry_2012_chetan_sharma_consulting

  • 1. State of the Global Mobile Industry Annual Assessment - 2012 Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits. http://www.chetansharma.com 1 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is prohibited.
  • 2. Table of Contents • Global Mobile State of the Union - 2012 • Mobile Impacts Everything • Mobile Subscriber and Revenue Growth • Global Markets – Data Growth • Devices – Changing Landscape • Mobile VAS and OTT • Mobile Data Traffic Growth and Solutions • Intellectual Property • Global Markets – Competitive Dynamics • 2012 Expectations http://www.chetansharma.com 2 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 3. Global Mobile State of the Union 2012 1. Total Global Mobile Revenues to hit $1.5 Trillion in 2012, over 2% of Global GDP – Top 10 operators control 42% of the global data mobile revenues 2. Mobile Services Revenue exceeded $1 Trillion for the first time in 2011 – The number of mobile operators with > $1 Billion in yearly data revenues will touch 50 in 2012 3. Total Global Mobile Data Revenues went past $300 Billion in 2011 – Non-messaging data now owns 53% of the global mobile data revenues 4. Mobile Operator Profits have more than doubled over the last 10 years – However, the wealth is not divided evenly. Asia’s share has tripled at the expense of Europe whose profit share has declined by 50%. 5. Total Global Subscriptions to exceed 7 Billion in early 2013 – China exceeds 1 Billion, India 950 Million. Subscriber growth is in Asia, Revenue growth is in Asia+North America 6. China and India represent 27% of subscriptions but only 12% of the global service revenues – US represents only 6% of the subscriptions but 21% of the global service revenues, 26% of the data revenues, and 27% of the global CAPEX 7. Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue – 70% of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement cycle is shrinking 8. Samsung and Apple now account for 50% of the smartphone unit share and 90% of the profit share – Difficult environment for other OEMs esp. when ZTE and Huawei are coming strong from the bottom. It will be difficult for pure play device OEMs to survive long-term 9. Tablets (iPads) has created a new computing paradigm that is having a significant impact on commerce, content consumption, and developer investments – Apple will continue to dominate the segment and iOS will be the leading OS for the segment. Amazon, ZTE, Huawei, to chip away at the sub-$200 tier http://www.chetansharma.com 3 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 4. Global Mobile State of the Union 2012 cont’d 10. Mobile Broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations, first time data is leading the charge – Over 1.5 Billion broadband connections by 2012 11. Global Mobile Apps revenue has completely (and irreversibly) tilted to off-deck – The decline is directly proportional to the increase in smartphone penetration by region 12. All major markets are consolidating with the top 3 players at 85% of the market – Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth 13. Mobile data traffic 2x YOY in most markets. Mobile Data will be 95% of the global mobile traffic by 2015 – Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next 2-3 years (in certain markets) 14. Mobile Signaling takes up 2x the resources as Mobile Data Traffic – Signaling traffic is growing faster than the data traffic on broadband networks 15. Connected device segment is growing at the fastest pace in the western markets – Operators will have to quickly adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this segment 16. Several multi-billion dollar opportunity segments are emerging – Mobile Advertising, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Wellness, Mobile Games, and Mobile Cloud Computing to name a few 17. Mobile Ecosystem has become very dynamic and unpredictable – The 5 Platform Amigos – Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook dominate though the first two have the real power 18. Mobile Operator Revenue is under pressure from OTT Players – OTT Share of the Global Mobile Revenues increased to 4% http://www.chetansharma.com 4 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 5. Global Mobile State of the Union 2012 cont’d 19. OTT players forcing operators to up their game – Operators are partnering, launching their own OTT apps, increasing tariffs to manage the margins 20. Intellectual Property has become a key component of long-term product strategy – 21% of all patents granted in US are mobile related. Top 20 control 1/3rd of the overall mobile patent pool 21. Mobile Patent Rankings: US – IBM, Microsoft, Nokia. Europe – Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia, Samsung. Overall – Nokia, Samsung, Alcatel-Lucent – OEMs – Nokia, Samsung, Sony. Service Providers – AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, Sprint 22. In 3-5 years, with few exceptions, if a company is not doing majority of its digital business on mobile, it is going to be irrelevant – Majority (by a good margin) of the consumer interactions with brands will be on mobile 23. Mobile has become the single most important digital channel for engaging consumers and it shows – In the US, mobile revenues were > all Ecommerce And > Music, ISP, Hollywood, and Cable revenues combined 24. We have entered the mobile 3.0 era where “data” is all that matters and it disrupts the value chains – Data will drive majority of the network growth, Contextual data will drive majority of the VAS growth 25. There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100 – The value chains will keep disrupting every 12-18 months by the new players and business models. Several verticals are already getting redefined e.g. retail, health, education, etc. http://www.chetansharma.com 5 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 6. Key Industry Micro-Milestones • Apple captures 70% of mobile device profits – defies gravity, obliterates competition • Apple mobile appstore downloads exceed 25 Billion, 100 Million on Mac – redefines distribution/ecosystem • Samsung ends Nokia’s 14 year reign as the device king – brutal execution • Android 300M activations – Juggernaut • Paypal does $7B in mobile transaction volume • Square does $5B in commerce transaction volume • Google > $5B in mobile revenues • Microsoft revenues from Android > Windows Mobile • Pandora’s 70% usage is on mobile, Twitter’s 60% of the usage is on mobile – heading towards a mobile-dominant world • Facebook Instagram Acquisition $1B – Mobile only acquisition to beef up mobile strategy • Angry Birds approaches a billion downloads • ESPN does 3.1 billion minutes on mobile in 3/12 – Mobile is where the action is • Skype traffic over 150 billion minutes – OTT pressure http://www.chetansharma.com 6 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 7. Key Industry Micro-Milestones cont’d • KPN messaging volumes decline 15% YOY – OTT pressure • Mobile Security threats grow 7x in last two years, Android threats up 3000% – Mobile IS IT • Cisco BYOD ratio – 70% (up 52% in 2011) - BYOD is creating new opportunities for vendors • US data traffic over 130 quadrillion bytes/month in 2011 – Data traffic 2X YOY, welcome to the yottabyte era • Fandango sells quarter of its ticket on mobile – commerce is happening • Expedia does > $1B in mobile commerce – see above • Microsoft Nokia Multi-Billion partnership – It takes two to tango • Lightsquared fails – Keep your friends close, enemies closer • Google Motorola $12.5B – IP becomes key to strategy • Nortel Patent acquisition $4.5B – IP becomes key to strategy • AT&T/T-Mobile Failure – DOJ/FCC put down the gavel • 40% of Kenya’s GDP comes from mobile money – impact of mobile is pervasive • Millennial Media IPO at $2B – first public market validation of the mobile advertising space • HP gives up on Palm – Competition forces Corporate Schizophrenia http://www.chetansharma.com 7 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 9. Mobile Apps and Services Mobile is fundamentally reshaping how we as consumers spend from housing and healthcare to entertainment and travel, from food and drinks to communication and transportation. Mobile not only influences purchase behavior but also post purchase opinions. When the share button is literally a second away, consumers are willingly sharing more information than ever before. Mobile is thus helping close the nirvana gap for brands and advertisers who seek to connect advertising to actual transactions. The long-term battle is however for owning the context of the users. Having the best knowledge about the user to help drive the transaction is the simply the most valuable currency of commerce. The day is not far when mobile commerce will dominate all digital commerce. http://www.chetansharma.com 9 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 10. Mobile is the single most pervasive technology ever invented http://www.chetansharma.com 10 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 11. Mobile impacts all Maslow levels % of Average Spend 15% Self 35% Safety 50% Physiological Source: US Department of Commerce
  • 12. Mobile is now 50% of the household IT budget
  • 13. Context – the most valuable currency in mobile Demographics/Explicit Profile Interests/Implicit Profile Browsing, Watching, Previewing, Flipping Sensor data Purchasing, Payments User Intent Communications Location Trusted Concierge Presence Search (Local, Online, Media) Physiological parameters Knowledge Transactions DRIVES (about User) (from User) Calendar User Experience Address Book Gifting Social Community Trusted Advisor Advertising Intellectual Community M2M Pricing Preferences Security/Authorization Devices in the vicinity Big Opportunities in becoming the trusted 3 Party Sources rd Concierge/Advisor to the individual user http://www.chetansharma.com 13 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 14. MOBILE SUBSCRIBER AND REVENUE GROWTH
  • 15. The Big Picture • The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue in the industry to touch approximately $1.5 Trillion in 2012 with mobile data representing 28% of the mix. Mobile data services revenue stood at 33%. Global Mobile Data revenues eclipsed $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data revenues at 53%. • By the end of 2011, the global subscriptions exceeded 6 Billion. The first 1 billion took over 20 years and this last one took only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. China became the first country to eclipse the 1 billion mark in March 2012. India is likely to arrive at the milestone by early 2013. • Smartphones are driving tremendous growth around the globe. Amongst the major markets, US leads with 69% sales. The global figure stands at approximately 32%. Some operators expect 90- 95% of their device sales to be smartphones in 2012. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012. • China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in top 10 – Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once dominant – Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings. • The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 50 in 2012. This number was only at 13 in 2005. http://www.chetansharma.com 15 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 16. Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011 Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2012 Global Subscriptions Global Smartphone Users Global Data Users © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2012 Global SMS Users Global Mobile Broadband Users Each dude represents approximately 113 million humans on planet Earth http://www.chetansharma.com 16 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 17. Global Mobile Technology Evolution First time, data is leading the charge http://www.chetansharma.com 17 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 18. Global Mobile Industry continues to grow at a healthy pace • Non Operator OTT Revenues at 4% • Voice will fall below 50% in 2012 • Messaging revenues still growing but flattening growth • Access revenues are growing quicker than any other operator segment http://www.chetansharma.com 18 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 19. Mobile is over 2% of Global GDP http://www.chetansharma.com 19 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 20. Operators around the world are benefiting from mobile data 50 operators with > $1B in data revs http://www.chetansharma.com 20 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 21. Global Mobile Industry Growth http://www.chetansharma.com 21 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 22. Top 10 global mobile data operators – US, Japan, China Dominate http://www.chetansharma.com 22 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 23. Global Mobile Leaders - 2012 Rank By Subs By Total Revenue By Data Revenue 1 China US US 2 India China Japan 3 US Japan China 4 Russia Brazil France 5 Brazil France UK 6 Indonesia Russia Korea 7 Japan UK Italy 8 Pakistan Germany Germany 9 Germany Italy Australia 10 Mexico India Brazil http://www.chetansharma.com 23 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 24. Global Mobile Leaders - 2012 Rank By Sub Penetration By ARPU By Data Usage 1 Hong Kong Japan Sweden 2 Finland Canada Finland 3 Portugal Switzerland Hong Kong 4 Austria US US 5 Singapore Norway Denmark 6 Sweden Australia Canada 7 Denmark France Australia 8 Greece Netherlands New Zealand 9 Germany Singapore Austria 10 Switzerland Israel Belgium http://www.chetansharma.com 24 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 25. Biggest Telecom Groups Rank By Subs By Data Revenue By NM Data Revenue 1 China Mobile Verizon Wireless AT&T Mobility 2 Vodafone NTT DoCoMo NTT DoCoMo 3 Telefonica AT&T Mobility Verizon Wireless 4 Bharti Airtel China Mobile China Mobile 5 America Movil Vodafone Vodafone 6 Orange Sprint Nextel Sprint Nextel 7 China Unicom KDDI KDDI 8 Vimplecom Telefonica Telefonica 9 TeliaSonera Softbank T-Mobile 10 Reliance T-Mobile Softbank http://www.chetansharma.com 25 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 26. US at the epicenter of mobile growth • 2% net-adds, 6% total subs but 21% of service revenues, 26% of data revenues, and 27% of global CAPEX • Networks: LTE/HSPA+ - Most broadband customers • Smartphones: Over 70% of the devices sold (more than twice the global average) • Applications: Billions of downloads (#1) • Pricing: Per Bit, Per Minute, Per Message lowest in developed world http://www.chetansharma.com 26 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 27. US – Mobile is the most dominant digital channel http://www.chetansharma.com 27 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 28. Race to a Billion – China won Corruption drags down growth http://www.chetansharma.com 28 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 29. China+India in Mobile China+India account for 37% of the global population http://www.chetansharma.com 29 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 30. China regains momentum & the lead http://www.chetansharma.com 30 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 32. US, Japan lead in revenues; China, India in subscriptions • Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile data revenue and data as a % of total ARPU. Country average is now at 60%. • Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last two years. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much further ahead than any other nation due to the size of the market. • While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down right anemic compared to other major markets with average dropping down to $2.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriber base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the market for the next couple of years relative to other markets. http://www.chetansharma.com 32 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 33. Mobile Internet 3.0 – Data as growth engine Mobile Internet - Leading Global Operators (2011) $40 3.0 Softbank Japan NTT DoCoMo $30 KDDI Mobile Data ARPU (USD) 2.0 Telstra Vodafone Italy 3 Australia $20 Rogers Verizon Sprint 3 Sweden AT&T O2 Germany Singtel 1.0 Orange France © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2012 SFR T-Mobile US T-Mobile Netherlands Bouygues SK Telecom $10 O2 UK KT T-Mobile Austria 3 UK Vodafone UK Telefonica Vodafone Spain TIM 3 Italy Vodafone Germany T-Mobile UKT-Mobile Germany Orange UK China Mobile Turkcell China Unicom Vodafone India AIS SMART Bharti Reliance $- 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Mobile Data as % of Total ARPU Source: http://chetansharma.com/Mobile_Internet_3.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 33 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 34. All major markets experiencing data growth – Japan, Australia, US leading http://www.chetansharma.com 34 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 35. Operators seek new sources of revenue ARPU New Service Revenue Operators can generate Messaging new revenue streams by focusing on the long-tail Revenue in Billions Access Direction of Revenue Growth of VAS Verticals Voice Cloud - Enterprise Today Tomorrow © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2012 Cloud - Consumer Mobile Advertising Transportation Energy & Smart Grid Hospitality Wellness Payments Messaging Industrial Health Access Voice Service and Application Areas Source: http://chetansharma.com/Mobile_Internet_3.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 35 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 37. Devices – Apple, Android Dominate • Apple has had the tablet space to itself. Thus far the response from the competitors has been tepid esp. on the pricing dimension. Apple has had such a mastery over the supply-chain and months ahead of the competition that by the time they figure out details, Apple already locks up the pricing advantage for the cycle. OEMs try to catch-up on the features but can’t do on the margins. OEMs can grow the pie by bringing products at a better price points that helps attract different demographics to the mix. Microsoft can make good inroads into the space with its Win8 tablet release in 2012 but it will be again in a catch-up mode as the iOS ecosystem will be even more robust by then. The cheaper Android tablets will do well in the market. As expected, tablets will pretty much eliminate the need for netbooks and are starting to eat into the desktop/laptop revenue. • Apple and Samsung are strong on the top. Huawei and ZTE are coming up strong from the bottom. The middle tier players will have a tough time going forward. • It will be difficult for pureplay device OEMs to survive long-term. • Nokia and RIM are under severe market scrutiny as investors and developers leave in droves. Lack of product planning and execution has left their market share in disarray. Nokia’s valuation has been cut into half. Nokia’s release of N9 shows the engineering and creative design depth but a lot is riding on the first generation of Nokia Windows Phones (Lumia). While the market hasn’t shown much appetite for Windows phone thus far, a good family of devices might be able to slow the loss trajectory and position the combined team for the up-for- grabs 3rd spot in the ecosystem. Given that the computing is shifting to mobile devices, we can expect some of the weaker desktop/laptop players will exit the industry. • Majority of the tablet use is in the WiFi mode because the primary use case is indoors and WiFi gives a better (and cheaper) user experience. However, of the users who use cellular, the churn is low. Once operators start to roll out user-friendly family data plans across multiple devices, we can expect the cellular activation go higher (e.g. Rogers, Vodafone Spain) but will still be dominated by WiFi overall. http://www.chetansharma.com 37 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 38. Mobile Devices are dominating the Computing Ecosystem http://www.chetansharma.com 38 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 39. US leading in smartphone sales US accounts for roughly 40% of the smartphone sales worldwide http://www.chetansharma.com 39 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 40. Smartphones driving data growth http://www.chetansharma.com 40 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 41. Samsung reaches the top of the hill in market share, Nokia struggling http://www.chetansharma.com 41 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 42. Apple and Samsung control 50% of the unit smartphone sales. Nokia’s share decimated. http://www.chetansharma.com 42 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 43. Connected devices come in all shapes and sizes High Data Cards/Embedded Superphones Tablets Video Cameras Data Consumption Automotive Smartphones Cameras eReaders Picture Frames Low High Number of Units in Market Feature Phones © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011 Digital Signage/Kiosks Security Sensors Health Monitors Copiers, Scanners, Printers Wellness Devices Home Sensors Asset Tracking Energy Meters Vending Grid Sensors Low http://www.chetansharma.com 43 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 44. AT&T – Connected Devices Growth Postpaid growth is slowing down in western markets, Connected device segment growing fastest http://www.chetansharma.com 44 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 45. US Tablet Launches in 2011 http://www.chetansharma.com 45 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 46. US Tablet Market http://www.chetansharma.com 46 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 47. Competing with iPad http://www.chetansharma.com 47 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 48. Platform players – 5 Amigos of mobile Strengths Weaknesses Apple Step ahead of the competition. Pressure on the operator margins Vertical Integration, Brand loyalty, Dev revenues, Commerce, Distribution Google Broad adoption. Broad Support. Open Fragmentation. Dev revenues. Lack of dev platform. Ambitious clear device strategy. Regulatory microscope Amazon Deep understanding of the user, New to the device arms race, Lack of Content, Commerce, Distribution, OS Margin master Microsoft Bank balance, Operators want a 3rd Late to mobile party, Lack of mobile ecosystem execution Facebook ~ 1 B users, 500 M mobile Lack of coherent mobile strategy, Lack of OS http://www.chetansharma.com 48 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 49. Apple dominates the platform ecosystem Apple The overall market is basically iOS and Android. Apple marketcap > Microsoft + Google + Facebook or Amazon Marketcap Microsoft © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2012 Google Facebook Amazon Users http://www.chetansharma.com 49 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 51. The Big Picture • The traditional operator revenue streams of – Voice – declining and under threat from VoIP – Messaging – flattening/declining and under threat from IP messaging – Access – rising but margins are shrinking fast – VAS – declining in proportion to the growth of smartphones • Operators are fighting back with – Voice – launching their own VoIP apps e.g. Bobsled from T-Mobile, partnering with VoIP players e.g. Skype integration, charging for VoIP apps e.g. TeliaSonera €6/month – Messaging – launching their own IP messaging apps e.g. Huddle from AT&T, partnering with IP messaging players e.g. Whatsapp partnership – Access – Tiering – VAS – launch their own VAS apps and industry vertical apps and services http://www.chetansharma.com 51 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 52. Smartphones are enabling Offdeck to dominate app revenue http://www.chetansharma.com 52 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 53. Some operators are starting to see the decline in messaging revenues Some operators in Europe are also seeing declines in messaging revenue Total SMS Volumes still increasing but revenue in decline http://www.chetansharma.com 53 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 54. SMS Growth – US takes over Philippines Philippines SMS volumes/sub declining precipitously due to the rise in IP messaging http://www.chetansharma.com 54 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 55. Mobile Advertising: All verticals participating http://www.chetansharma.com 55 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 56. Promising Segments. Leading Companies • Advertising – Google, Millennial Media • Payments/Commerce – Paypal, Square, Google, Amazon • Gaming – Microsoft, Rovio • Enterprise – AT&T, Salesforce • M2M – Vodafone, AT&T, Ericsson • Identity – Facebook, Google, Twitter • Cloud – Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Salesforce • Wellness/Health – Qualcomm, Fitbit, Mobisante Sampling Only http://www.chetansharma.com 56 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 58. Mobile Data Traffic Growth • In most western markets, data traffic is doubling YOY • Sweden, Finland, Hong Kong, and US make the top 4 in terms of MB consumed per capita • A Multi-pronged approach is needed to have a sustainable strategy long term http://www.chetansharma.com 58 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 59. Only a holistic strategy to deal with data tsunami can help the operators long-term • As a result of the data tsunami, there are two types of opportunities that are being created, one that take advantage of the data being generated in a way that enhances the user experience and provides value and the other in technologies that help manage the traffic data that will continue to grow exponentially. • To be able to stay ahead of the demand, significant planning needs to go in to deal with the bits and bytes that are already exploding. New technical and business solutions will be needed to manage the growth and profit from the services. Relying on only one solution won’t be an effective strategy to manage rising data demand. A holistic approach to managing data traffic is needed and our analysis shows that the cost structure can be reduced by more than half if a suite of solutions are deployed vs. a single dimensional approach and thus bringing the hockey stick curves of data cost more in line with the revenues and thus preserving the margins. • The decision making process within the operator organizations will need to be streamlined as well. Operators should also consider creating a senior post which focuses on both the cost side and the solution side so they can devise and institute a sustainable long-term policy and keep the margins healthy. http://www.chetansharma.com 59 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 61. US Mobile Data Traffic is doubling every year http://www.chetansharma.com 61 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 62. Margin preservation key to all operator strategies http://www.chetansharma.com 62 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 63. Managing data margins will be top priority for all operators 50% m iu Philippines br ili Japan qu cE ffi ra -T 40% ue en Data as % of Services v Re Australia China Revenues Indonesia US UK New Zealand 30% Singapore Hong Kong Netherlands Germany © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011 Italy Sweden Switzerland Mexico Malaysia France Portugal 20% Canada Denmark Korea Finland Russia Spain Brazil South Africa India 10% Argentina 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Data as % of Overall Network Traffic Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 63 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 64. Management of Data Requires Multiple Strategies Radio Access Network Core Network Mobile Backhaul Copper 2G Core Network Microwave 3G Fiber RNC SGSN GGSN 4G Light Internet Services Networks Offloading Traffic Optimization Offloading Traffic WiFi/FemtoCell Compression/Optimization Compression/Optimization of Data Traffic Policy Management Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 64 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 65. INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY WILL REMAIN KEY TO LONG-TERM PRODUCT AND COMPETITIVE STRATEGY SUCCESS
  • 66. IP is critical to long-term product strategy • The IP tussles are playing out as expected • Players with strong IP portfolios will be able to command better negotiating positions, new revenue streams, competitive positioning over the long-term • On average mobile companies file patents 1.7 times more in the US vs. Europe • Mobile Patent Leaders in US: IBM, Microsoft, Nokia • Mobile Patent Leaders in Europe: Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia, Samsung • Mobile Patent Leaders in Infrastructure: Samsung, Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson • Mobile Patent Leaders in Devices: Nokia, Samsung, Sony • Mobile Patent Leaders in Service Providers: AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, Sprint • Top 20 control 1/3rd of the total mobile communications patent pool http://www.chetansharma.com 66 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 67. Patent Power Rankings – Mobile Communications Related Issued Patents 1995-2012 Rank US Europe US+Europe 1 IBM Alcatel-Lucent Nokia 2 Microsoft Nokia Samsung 3 Nokia Samsung Alcatel-Lucent 4 Samsung Sony Ericsson 5 Ericsson Ericsson Microsoft 6 Sony RIM IBM 7 Motorola NEC Sony 8 Intel NTT DoCoMo NEC 9 Alcatel-Lucent Siemens Motorola 10 Qualcomm Qualcomm Qualcomm Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesn’t take a look at the quality or the value of the patents http://www.chetansharma.com 67 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 68. Patent Power Rankings – Mobile Communications Related Issued Patents 1995-2012 Rank OEM/Software Infrastructure Service Provider 1 Nokia Samsung AT&T 2 Samsung Alcatel-Lucent NTT DoCoMo 3 Sony Ericsson Sprint 4 NEC NEC British Telecom 5 Motorola Motorola Verizon 6 RIM Qualcomm T-Mobile 7 Siemens Siemens Swisscom 8 LG LG Telecom Italia 9 Fujitsu Fujitsu SK Telecom 10 Hitachi HP TeliaSonera Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesn’t take a look at the quality or the value of the patents http://www.chetansharma.com 68 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 69. US outpaces Europe in mobile patents http://www.chetansharma.com 69 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 70. Nokia, Samsung, and ALU – The big 3 http://www.chetansharma.com 70 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 71. Mobile Patent Portfolio of leading mobile players Mobile Patent Portfolio of Leading Players 100% Amazon Google Panasonic HTC ZTE Juniper Huawei RIM 90% Lenovo Adobe Apple EMC SAP Telecom Italia 80% SK Telecom Samsung Kyocera LG Sprint Cisco Verizon Broadcom Ricoh Qualcomm Microsoft % of Patents Issued 2007-12 70% Dell NTT DoCoMo Intel T-Mobile AT&T TeliaSonera Fujitsu Sony 60% Asustek IBM Interdigital Orange Siemens 50% Hitachi HP British Telecom Ericsson Nokia Philips 40% Swisscom NEC Alcatel-Lucent 30% Motorola 20% Oracle Openwave 10% © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2012 0% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Number of Patents Issued 1995-2012 http://www.chetansharma.com 71 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 72. IBM, MS lead in US. Nokia, Samsung in Europe http://www.chetansharma.com 72 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 73. Integration of IP with product strategy is essential for competitiveness in mobile NUMERIC ANALYSIS Improve your PPQ by tight integration with product SUBJECTIVE Patent Portfolio Quotient™ ANALYSIS f(Σ) (PPQ) strategy PATENT PROGRAM ANALYSIS R&D, Other Sources Ideation Market Product Design and Public Disclosure Requirements Requirements Development © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011 Licensing IP competitive and IP Analysis IP Protection Process IP Management risk assessment IP driven Product Development Cycle Source: What is your Patent Portfolio Quotient? http://chetansharma.com/patentportfolioquotient.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 73 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 74. GLOBAL MARKETS – COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS
  • 75. Changing Ecosystem Dynamics It is very clear that the ecosystem dynamics can change very quickly, one just can’t take the competitive and friendly forces for granted. In the past, the silos and segments were clearly defined with little overlap. However, over the course of last couple of years, players have been migrating and surfing in segments across the board - from Apple to Visa, from P&G to AT&T, from Facebook to Time Warner, from Google to Best Buy, every company wants to capture the mindshare and piece of the consumer’s pocketbook. The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated in a quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&T’s business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice, Amazon is gunning for Microsoft’s enterprise business, so on and so forth. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in an instant. And this is only the beginning. http://www.chetansharma.com 75 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 76. Competitive Dynamics • The Rule of Three is evident in all major markets. While the percentage market share might vary, on an average, the top 3 control 93% of the market in an given nation. It doesn’t matter if the market is defined by “controlled regulation” like in China, Korea, and Japan or if it is “open market” driven in markets such as the US, UK, and India. Eventually, only top 3 operators control the majority of the market. There are niches that others occupy but they are largely irrelevant to the overall structure and functioning of the mobile market. • Markets such as US and India experienced similar competitive environment in their hyper-growth phase. For the US, this phase was in the nineties-mid-2000s while India has been experiencing the similar environment in the last 3-4 years. In both cases, at the start there are 5-6 players with no more than 25% market share but higher than 10% of the mix but gradually the market forces enable consolidation. Over a period of 18 years, US is settling into a “top 3” operator market. India’s brutal price wars are going to trigger the consolidation in the next 12-24 months and will eventually settle into a structure similar to other markets. • The competitive equilibrium point in the mobile industry seems to when the market shares of the top 3 are 46%:29%:18% respectively with the remaining 7% being allocated to the niche operators. To achieve some semblance of equilibrium in the market the top operator shouldn’t have more than 50% of the market share and the number three player shouldn’t have less than 20%. This helps create enough balance in the market to derive maximum value for the consumer. • Mobile operators will face some hard choices in developing and protecting the role they want to play in a given region and the ecosystem at-large. The strategy they choose will have a direct impact on the expected EBITDA margins, investment required over the long-haul, how investors view them, and on the competitive landscape of the country. Given, the fast pace of globalization, new rules and trends might emerge over the course of this decade that further define “communications” and “computing” as we know it. http://www.chetansharma.com 76 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 77. Competitive Landscape in Major Markets Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets. http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 77 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 78. Global Mobile Competitive Index Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets. http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 78 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 79. Eventually all markets consolidate to top 3 Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets. http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 79 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 80. WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2H 2012
  • 81. What to expect in 2H 2012 • More Tiering, faster pace of change of plans. More options, family data plans • Cost reduction is as important as revenue generation. More players will align their value-chains and cost structures • Facebook IPO is probably going to be the single biggest event in the technology industry in the next few months. • Radios will start connecting the digital world with the physical world with significant disruption opportunity • Mobile Payment Networks will remain intact for the near future as the ecosystem largely focuses on building value on top of the existing exchange platforms • The intersection of Social, Location, Identity, and Gaming is creating new opportunities • With connectivity becoming pervasive, mobile will fundamentally start to alter the legacy infrastructure – retail, health, education, energy, computing, travel, entertainment • Significant tablet adoption in the enterprise directly impacting the traditional computer manufacturers • Both HTML5 and Apps will continue to grow, the relevancy to any given application will depend on the reach and economics requirements. HTML5 is not going to replace Apps. • Mobile data growth will double again in 2012. Significant opportunities in managing and understanding of mobile data growth • Regulators will need to evolve to keep up with the trend to keep their nation globally competitive • More IP scuffles before licensing settlements • Consolidation of weaker players, more global M&A • Significant progress in emerging areas like mHealth, mPayments will come from the developing world while the western countries get mired in regulatory and legacy mess • Several players face challenging times ahead and 2012 will be critical in their turn around sojourn. http://www.chetansharma.com 81 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 82. MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD MOBILE’S THOUGHT-LEADERSHIP SUMMIT 09.10.12 SEATTLE WWW.MOBILEFUTUREFORWARD.COM
  • 83. Discussions to inform your strategy • Is 4G a Game Changer? • Innovation at the Edges • Mobile Payments and Commerce • Disruption is in the air • Mobile Data Services from the Prism of the CIOs • Solving the 50 year Spectrum Crunch • Managing the Network Growth • Opportunities in the Emerging Markets • The Universe of Connected Devices • Analytics - How to Collect, Manage, and Use Data? • Multi-modal Interactions - How Consumers Adapt? • At the Intersection of Social, Mobile, Commerce, Content • Battle for the Home – playing in the n-screen world • What do Developers Want? • A Smarter Planet - The Role of Mobile in Enhancing Lifestyles and in Making Everyday Decisions • Drivers for New Sources of Revenue • Role of Regulations - Spectrum, Privacy, Net-Neutrality • Mobile Cloud Computing • Monetizing the network • From 3 Screens to Multi-screens • Mobile Universe in 2020 http://www.chetansharma.com 83 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.
  • 84. Mobile Executive Summit Sept 10th, 2012 Seattle Ever wondered what the future of mobile looks like? Join us for an extraordinary day of executive mobile brainstorming Contact info@mobilefutureforward.com for sponsorship and speaking opportunities www.mobilefutureforward.com
  • 85. Mobile Breakfast Series June 7th – Seattle – Mobile Operators and OTT Panel Discussion with AT&T June 22nd – Atlanta – Connected Devices Fireside Chat with David Christopher, CMO, AT&T Mobility Panel Discussion with CNN and Synchronoss June 29th – London – Mobile Operators and OTT Panel Discussion with Telefonica, Orange, Rebtel, Horizons Venture Excellent Speakers. Invaluable Insights. Peerless Networking. Contact info@mobilebreakfastseries.com for sponsorship and speaking opportunities www.mobilebreakfastseries.com
  • 86. We look forward to hearing from you Chetan Sharma Mobile Future Forward chetan@chetansharma.com info@mobilefutureforward.com TW: @chetansharma TW: @mfutureforward http://www.chetansharma.com http://www.mobilefutureforward.com Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits. http://www.chetansharma.com 86 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited.