The document describes a study that uses an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to analyze and forecast inflation rates in Ghana's Volta Region. The researchers obtained monthly inflation rate data from January 2009 to September 2015 from the Ghana Statistical Service. They found that an ARIMA (2,1,2) model best fit the data and allowed for accurate out-of-sample forecasting of inflation rates in the region over the subsequent 6 months. The forecasts indicated that the Volta Region is likely to continue experiencing double-digit inflation rates. The researchers conclude that policymakers should reevaluate economic policies to address factors contributing to high inflation in the region.
This document discusses economic censuses and provides details about a United Nations survey on economic censuses conducted in 2006. The survey found that most countries conduct economic censuses every five years and exclude agriculture and public administration. It also found that over half of countries cover all economic units without size thresholds, while others use sampling. The document concludes with information about Egypt's 2012/2013 economic census, which combined complete and sample censuses to collect data on current statistics and the unregulated private sector across 13 activities.
This document provides an overview of econometric modeling techniques. It discusses objectives of econometric modeling including empirical verification of economic theories and policy analysis. It also describes types of econometric models such as single-equation regression models, simultaneous-equation models, and time series models. Model building criteria and assumptions of single-equation regression models are outlined along with methods for dealing with violations of assumptions like multicollinearity and autocorrelation.
An autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) model for ghana’s inflationAlexander Decker
This document presents a study that uses an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to analyze monthly inflation in Ghana from 1985 to 2011. The researchers employed the Box-Jenkins framework to identify the best-fitting ARIMA model for Ghana's inflation. The seasonal ARIMA model (1,1,2)(1,0,1) was selected as it had the lowest Akaike Information Criteria and Bayesian Information Criteria values. This model was then used to forecast Ghana's monthly inflation for the next twelve months. The study aims to determine the trend, structural form, best time series model, and future inflation levels in Ghana.
International Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Invention (IJMSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of computer science and electronics. IJMSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Mathematics and Statistics, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
This document analyzes the relationship between Nigeria's urban and rural consumer price index (CPI) from January 2001 to December 2015 using time series analysis methods. Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests found a relationship between urban and rural CPI. A vector autoregression model was constructed and impulse response analysis showed that a positive impulse to urban (rural) CPI positively impacts rural (urban) CPI. Inflation was generally higher in rural areas, possibly due to differences in consumption patterns between urban and rural dwellers.
Price Transmission and Signals of Cowpea Across Zones and Value Chain in Nige...BRNSS Publication Hub
This study investigated price transmission and signals of the three major urban cowpea markets and their
respective adjunct rural market across the zones and value chain in Niger state of Nigeria using monthly time
series data spanning from January 2003 to December 2016. The selected urban markets were Bida, Minna,
and Kontagora, and their adjunct markets were Lafene, Zungeru, and Manigi, respectively. Model build on
the assumption of linear and symmetric price transmission was used to analyze the data. The stationarity
tests showed that the price series of all the variables were integrated of order one. The cointegration test
results of the markets both at horizontal and vertical integrated levels proved that despite that, these markets
were spatially separated geographically; they were well connected in terms of price transmission across
them. It was observed that price changes are temporary and would converge to equilibrium within a given
time span. However, Bida market was found to me more pricing and operational efficiency when compared
to its counterparts because of its close proximity to the largest terminal markets for cowpea in the country,
i.e., Lagos state and other states in the southwest of Nigeria. Furthermore, the price signals across the zones
and value chain will be well transmitted, indicating that price changes in one zone are consistently related to
the price changes in other zones and are able to influence the prices in other zones. However, the direction
and intensity of price changes may be affected by the dynamic linkages between the demand and supply of
cowpea. A proper focus on domestic supply management along with international trade coupled with strong
market surveillance and intelligence efforts would help control escalating prices and also help in minimizing
the distortions widening the gap between the wholesale and retail prices of cowpea.
This document discusses economic censuses and provides details about a United Nations survey on economic censuses conducted in 2006. The survey found that most countries conduct economic censuses every five years and exclude agriculture and public administration. It also found that over half of countries cover all economic units without size thresholds, while others use sampling. The document concludes with information about Egypt's 2012/2013 economic census, which combined complete and sample censuses to collect data on current statistics and the unregulated private sector across 13 activities.
This document provides an overview of econometric modeling techniques. It discusses objectives of econometric modeling including empirical verification of economic theories and policy analysis. It also describes types of econometric models such as single-equation regression models, simultaneous-equation models, and time series models. Model building criteria and assumptions of single-equation regression models are outlined along with methods for dealing with violations of assumptions like multicollinearity and autocorrelation.
An autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) model for ghana’s inflationAlexander Decker
This document presents a study that uses an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to analyze monthly inflation in Ghana from 1985 to 2011. The researchers employed the Box-Jenkins framework to identify the best-fitting ARIMA model for Ghana's inflation. The seasonal ARIMA model (1,1,2)(1,0,1) was selected as it had the lowest Akaike Information Criteria and Bayesian Information Criteria values. This model was then used to forecast Ghana's monthly inflation for the next twelve months. The study aims to determine the trend, structural form, best time series model, and future inflation levels in Ghana.
International Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Invention (IJMSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of computer science and electronics. IJMSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Mathematics and Statistics, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
This document analyzes the relationship between Nigeria's urban and rural consumer price index (CPI) from January 2001 to December 2015 using time series analysis methods. Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests found a relationship between urban and rural CPI. A vector autoregression model was constructed and impulse response analysis showed that a positive impulse to urban (rural) CPI positively impacts rural (urban) CPI. Inflation was generally higher in rural areas, possibly due to differences in consumption patterns between urban and rural dwellers.
Price Transmission and Signals of Cowpea Across Zones and Value Chain in Nige...BRNSS Publication Hub
This study investigated price transmission and signals of the three major urban cowpea markets and their
respective adjunct rural market across the zones and value chain in Niger state of Nigeria using monthly time
series data spanning from January 2003 to December 2016. The selected urban markets were Bida, Minna,
and Kontagora, and their adjunct markets were Lafene, Zungeru, and Manigi, respectively. Model build on
the assumption of linear and symmetric price transmission was used to analyze the data. The stationarity
tests showed that the price series of all the variables were integrated of order one. The cointegration test
results of the markets both at horizontal and vertical integrated levels proved that despite that, these markets
were spatially separated geographically; they were well connected in terms of price transmission across
them. It was observed that price changes are temporary and would converge to equilibrium within a given
time span. However, Bida market was found to me more pricing and operational efficiency when compared
to its counterparts because of its close proximity to the largest terminal markets for cowpea in the country,
i.e., Lagos state and other states in the southwest of Nigeria. Furthermore, the price signals across the zones
and value chain will be well transmitted, indicating that price changes in one zone are consistently related to
the price changes in other zones and are able to influence the prices in other zones. However, the direction
and intensity of price changes may be affected by the dynamic linkages between the demand and supply of
cowpea. A proper focus on domestic supply management along with international trade coupled with strong
market surveillance and intelligence efforts would help control escalating prices and also help in minimizing
the distortions widening the gap between the wholesale and retail prices of cowpea.
Empirical test of the relationship between import substitution and trade perf...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that empirically tested the relationship between import substitution policies and trade performance in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2009. The study used a vector error correction model to analyze the long-run and short-run relationships between net exports (the measure of trade performance), import tariffs, and exchange rates. The results showed cointegration, indicating a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. Specifically, it found that real exchange rate depreciation was negatively associated with net exports and negatively related to import tariffs in the long-run. It also found that import tariffs had a negative relationship with net exports in the long-run.
Multivariate analysis of the impact of the commercial banks on the economic g...Alexander Decker
The document analyzes the impact of commercial banks on economic growth in Nigeria from 1970-2009 using multivariate analysis and the ordinary least squares method. It finds that commercial bank credits, deposit liabilities, and lending rates had a positive relationship with GDP, indicating they help achieve economic growth. However, the number of banks had a negative but insignificant relationship with GDP. The study concludes that policies aimed at increasing commercial bank capital bases should be pursued to increase loanable funds and sustainable economic growth and development.
Convergence Analysis of Regional Logistics Efficiency in Chinaijtsrd
This document analyzes the convergence of regional logistics efficiency in China from 2011 to 2018 using data envelopment analysis and convergence theory. The results show:
1) There is no absolute convergence trend nationwide or in eastern China, but the central and western regions show absolute convergence.
2) After controlling for factors like human capital, government intervention, industrial structure, conditional convergence is seen nationwide.
3) Improving human capital and reducing government intervention most promote convergence of logistics efficiency. This implies central and western regions can narrow the efficiency gap with eastern regions through appropriate policies.
Agricultural productivity growth and incidence of povertyAlexander Decker
This study analyzed agricultural productivity growth and poverty in Africa from 1971-2009 using Malmquist Total Factor Productivity indices and human development indices. The results showed that on average, agricultural productivity in Africa grew 0.2% per year, with 22 countries experiencing growth primarily due to technological changes. However, some countries like Congo and Somalia experienced declines in productivity due to factors like war and civil unrest. Overall, Africa saw a 2.1% upward shift in production frontiers but a 1.8% decline in efficiency. The analysis also found a positive relationship between agricultural productivity growth and reductions in poverty.
Modelling Mobile payment services revenue using Artificial Neural Network Kyalo Richard
This presentation elaborate application of Neural Network in modelling mobile payment services in kenya.The policy implication of this study is that ANN can be used to model revenue from mobile payments services, which is certainly useful for various financial players such as government and policy makers of the country.
International Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Invention (IJMSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of computer science and electronics. IJMSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Mathematics and Statistics, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
The study gauged the influence of exchange rate fluctuations on the Performance of the Nigerian Economy over the time from of 1986 to 2016, utilizing secondary data tracked from the statistical report of the Apex Nigerian bank, and utilizing techniques such as Unit root test, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Impulse-Response Output and Variance-Decomposition Test to evaluate variables such as Interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate against a sole indicator of Economic Performance I.e. Gross Domestic Product Growth rate (GDPGR), it was discovered that despite the short run influx of the spill over volatility of Interest rate and inflation rate, there exist no long run volatility influence of interest rate on Economic Performance in Nigeria. It was therefore recommended that the apex financial institution and relevant policy makers should ensure an interest rate system and status that could stimulate growth or production and the nation should endeavour to utilize her interest rate in controlling its output level as it motivates Economic Performance (GDPGR).
Banking sector development and economic growth slides for presentation editedComrade Ibrahim Gani
This document summarizes a study on the relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in Nigeria. It finds that while several banking reforms have been implemented, real sector access to financing remains difficult, with high interest rates discouraging bank borrowing. After reviewing theories and prior studies on the finance-growth nexus, the document describes the study's methodology, which uses cointegration and vector error-correction models to analyze annual data from 1970-2010 on GDP, financial indicators like credit to GDP ratios, and other variables. The results show a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. In particular, higher credit to the private sector, government expenditure, and interest rate spreads negatively impact GDP, while liquid liabilities and trade openness positively influence
A PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD O...Daniel Wachtel
This document is the title page and approval page of a research project on the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980 to 2010. It was submitted by Asher Ojochogu Joyce to partially fulfill the requirements for a BSc degree in Economics from Caritas University. The project was supervised by Prof. F.E. Onah and approved by various heads of departments and the dean of the faculty of management and social sciences.
THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ON HOUSEHOLD CONSUPTION IN CAMEROONFuh George Cheo
This document summarizes a study investigating the effect of monetary policy on household consumption in Cameroon from 1980 to 2010. It uses an economic model to examine the relationship between household consumption expenditure and several monetary policy variables, including money and quasi money growth, real interest rates, total reserves, and gross national income per capita. The results indicate that total reserves and GNI per capita positively and significantly affect household consumption, while money and quasi money growth has a negative impact. It recommends that monetary policy tools be used to influence household consumption by encouraging total reserves and GNI per capita.
This study analyzes how the exchange rate elasticity of exports has changed over time and across countries to determine if currency wars are worth fighting. The analysis uses panel data from 7 countries from 1990-2014 and finds that the elasticity of total exports has declined over this period. Specifically, the elasticity fell from an average of 0.63 in 1990-2003 to 0.4 in 2004-2014. Additional analysis shows this decline preceded the global financial crisis, suggesting cyclical factors are not the sole driver. In conclusion, the effectiveness of currency depreciation in boosting exports appears to have decreased over time.
The output gap indicating the difference between the actual and potential levels of output is a critical factor for estimating the inflationary pressures in an economy. If the main target of a central bank is ensuring and maintaining the price stability, estimating the output gap with a minimum error is crucial for the efficiency of the monetary policy. In this study, we estimated the output gap in Turkey for the 2002-2014 period by using four different methods. Two of these estimation methods are purely statistical (Linear Trend and Hodrick-Presscot (HP) Filtering) while the others are integrated with the relations suggested by the economic theory (multivariate structural model and structural autoregressive (SVAR) model). By using empirical decision criteria common in the literature, we conclude that SVAR model produces the most reliable output gap estimates to explain inflationary pressures in Turkey. However, we also found that the Hodrick-Presscot filtering method is the second best methodology in the output gap estimation process.
Tax Elasticity, Buoyancy and Stability in ZimbabweIOSR Journals
The document analyzes tax elasticity, buoyancy, and stability in Zimbabwe from 2000-2013. It finds that Zimbabwe relies heavily on tax revenue to fund government spending. Using traditional regression and dummy variable approaches, the study calculates Zimbabwe's tax buoyancy at over 1, implying the tax system responds to income growth. Tax ratios varied over the period but generally increased after dollarization, reaching a peak of 40.2% in 2005. Several tables show tax performance and revenue by tax type. The document also analyzes Zimbabwe's many parastatals across various sectors and their inefficiencies that have led to losses.
QUALITY ASSURANCE FOR ECONOMY CLASSIFICATION BASED ON DATA MINING TECHNIQUESIJDKP
Researchers in the quality assurance field used traditional techniques for increasing the organization income and take the most suitable decisions. Today they focus and search for a new intelligent techniques in order to enhance the quality of their decisions. This paper based on applying the most robust trend in computer science field which is data mining in the quality assurance field. The cases study which is discussed in this paper based on detecting and predicting the developed and developing countries based on the indicators. This paper uses three different artificial intelligent techniques namely; Artificial Neural Network (ANN), k-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Fuzzy k-Nearest Neighbor (FKNN). The main target of this paper is to merge between the last intelligent techniques applied in the computer science with the quality assurance approaches. The experimental result shows that proposed approaches in this paper achieved the highest accuracy score than the other comparative studies as indicates in the experimental result section.
Efficiency Evaluation of Thailand Gross Domestic Product Using DEAIJMREMJournal
The goal of this research is to evaluate the efficiency of GDP in Thailand from the past years and provide suggestions for government and policy-makers on ways to manage inputs and improve outputs in the future while enhancing the GDP of Thailand. The paper analyzed the data collected from Office of the National Economic and Social Development of Thailand through a period of 25 years ranging from 1993 to 2017. The results show that the year 2017 was the worst years in terms of efficiency. In order to achieve the research goal, data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used. Theoretically, research has found that evaluation of GDP can be improved by eradicating the negative values of slack movement. In economic terms, the research proposed the promotion of export-led growth, business incubators, and entrepreneurship to boost not only the inputs but also the GPD of the country. In general, the GDP of Thailand is quite efficient. This research can provide strategic advice for Thai Government to improve the Gross Domestic Product thoroughly
Nigeria’s potential growth and output gap application of different econometri...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that estimates Nigeria's potential output and output gap using different econometric filtering methods, including the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Baxter-King filter, and Christiano-Fitzgerald filters. The methods yielded different but similar results over time. According to the analyses, Nigeria's economy was overheated from 2004 to 2005 but operated below capacity from 2008 to 2009. The paper also found a relationship between inflation and estimated output gaps in Nigeria. Estimating potential output and the output gap can help inform monetary policy decisions by providing insights into future price levels and economic projections.
IRJET- GDP Forecast for India using Mixed Data Sampling TechniqueIRJET Journal
This document describes a study that aimed to forecast India's GDP using a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) technique. It first conducted a preliminary study to identify macroeconomic indicators that affect India's GDP. It then used dynamic factor modeling to identify the most relevant predictors from the collected data. Twenty-two predictors varying in frequency (quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily) were identified. The MIDAS technique was then used to obtain a GDP forecast incorporating predictors of different frequencies, without averaging them to a single frequency. The forecast was compared to one obtained using a traditional regression method. The accuracy of the two forecasts was assessed by calculating forecast errors and conducting statistical tests. The results suggest the MIDAS technique provided a more accurate
Modelling Inflation using Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMM)AI Publications
Inflation becomes an important thing to become a benchmark for economic growth, investor considerations factor in choosing the type of investment, as well as determining factors for the government in formulating fiscal policy, monetary or non-monetary to be run. Inflation calculations carried out using the Consumer Price Index, known as CPI as an indicator to measure the cost of consumption of goods and services markets. Based on an analysis using GAMM was concluded R2 value of 0.996 or can be interpreted that the inflation amounted to 99.6 % can be explained by the variables used in this study and 0.4 % is explained by other factors
An Examination of Effectuation Dimension as Financing Practice of Small and M...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Does Goods and Services Tax (GST) Leads to Indian Economic Development?iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
More Related Content
Similar to An Econometric Model for Inflation Rates in the Volta Region of Ghana
Empirical test of the relationship between import substitution and trade perf...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that empirically tested the relationship between import substitution policies and trade performance in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2009. The study used a vector error correction model to analyze the long-run and short-run relationships between net exports (the measure of trade performance), import tariffs, and exchange rates. The results showed cointegration, indicating a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. Specifically, it found that real exchange rate depreciation was negatively associated with net exports and negatively related to import tariffs in the long-run. It also found that import tariffs had a negative relationship with net exports in the long-run.
Multivariate analysis of the impact of the commercial banks on the economic g...Alexander Decker
The document analyzes the impact of commercial banks on economic growth in Nigeria from 1970-2009 using multivariate analysis and the ordinary least squares method. It finds that commercial bank credits, deposit liabilities, and lending rates had a positive relationship with GDP, indicating they help achieve economic growth. However, the number of banks had a negative but insignificant relationship with GDP. The study concludes that policies aimed at increasing commercial bank capital bases should be pursued to increase loanable funds and sustainable economic growth and development.
Convergence Analysis of Regional Logistics Efficiency in Chinaijtsrd
This document analyzes the convergence of regional logistics efficiency in China from 2011 to 2018 using data envelopment analysis and convergence theory. The results show:
1) There is no absolute convergence trend nationwide or in eastern China, but the central and western regions show absolute convergence.
2) After controlling for factors like human capital, government intervention, industrial structure, conditional convergence is seen nationwide.
3) Improving human capital and reducing government intervention most promote convergence of logistics efficiency. This implies central and western regions can narrow the efficiency gap with eastern regions through appropriate policies.
Agricultural productivity growth and incidence of povertyAlexander Decker
This study analyzed agricultural productivity growth and poverty in Africa from 1971-2009 using Malmquist Total Factor Productivity indices and human development indices. The results showed that on average, agricultural productivity in Africa grew 0.2% per year, with 22 countries experiencing growth primarily due to technological changes. However, some countries like Congo and Somalia experienced declines in productivity due to factors like war and civil unrest. Overall, Africa saw a 2.1% upward shift in production frontiers but a 1.8% decline in efficiency. The analysis also found a positive relationship between agricultural productivity growth and reductions in poverty.
Modelling Mobile payment services revenue using Artificial Neural Network Kyalo Richard
This presentation elaborate application of Neural Network in modelling mobile payment services in kenya.The policy implication of this study is that ANN can be used to model revenue from mobile payments services, which is certainly useful for various financial players such as government and policy makers of the country.
International Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Invention (IJMSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of computer science and electronics. IJMSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Mathematics and Statistics, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
The study gauged the influence of exchange rate fluctuations on the Performance of the Nigerian Economy over the time from of 1986 to 2016, utilizing secondary data tracked from the statistical report of the Apex Nigerian bank, and utilizing techniques such as Unit root test, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Impulse-Response Output and Variance-Decomposition Test to evaluate variables such as Interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate against a sole indicator of Economic Performance I.e. Gross Domestic Product Growth rate (GDPGR), it was discovered that despite the short run influx of the spill over volatility of Interest rate and inflation rate, there exist no long run volatility influence of interest rate on Economic Performance in Nigeria. It was therefore recommended that the apex financial institution and relevant policy makers should ensure an interest rate system and status that could stimulate growth or production and the nation should endeavour to utilize her interest rate in controlling its output level as it motivates Economic Performance (GDPGR).
Banking sector development and economic growth slides for presentation editedComrade Ibrahim Gani
This document summarizes a study on the relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in Nigeria. It finds that while several banking reforms have been implemented, real sector access to financing remains difficult, with high interest rates discouraging bank borrowing. After reviewing theories and prior studies on the finance-growth nexus, the document describes the study's methodology, which uses cointegration and vector error-correction models to analyze annual data from 1970-2010 on GDP, financial indicators like credit to GDP ratios, and other variables. The results show a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. In particular, higher credit to the private sector, government expenditure, and interest rate spreads negatively impact GDP, while liquid liabilities and trade openness positively influence
A PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD O...Daniel Wachtel
This document is the title page and approval page of a research project on the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980 to 2010. It was submitted by Asher Ojochogu Joyce to partially fulfill the requirements for a BSc degree in Economics from Caritas University. The project was supervised by Prof. F.E. Onah and approved by various heads of departments and the dean of the faculty of management and social sciences.
THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ON HOUSEHOLD CONSUPTION IN CAMEROONFuh George Cheo
This document summarizes a study investigating the effect of monetary policy on household consumption in Cameroon from 1980 to 2010. It uses an economic model to examine the relationship between household consumption expenditure and several monetary policy variables, including money and quasi money growth, real interest rates, total reserves, and gross national income per capita. The results indicate that total reserves and GNI per capita positively and significantly affect household consumption, while money and quasi money growth has a negative impact. It recommends that monetary policy tools be used to influence household consumption by encouraging total reserves and GNI per capita.
This study analyzes how the exchange rate elasticity of exports has changed over time and across countries to determine if currency wars are worth fighting. The analysis uses panel data from 7 countries from 1990-2014 and finds that the elasticity of total exports has declined over this period. Specifically, the elasticity fell from an average of 0.63 in 1990-2003 to 0.4 in 2004-2014. Additional analysis shows this decline preceded the global financial crisis, suggesting cyclical factors are not the sole driver. In conclusion, the effectiveness of currency depreciation in boosting exports appears to have decreased over time.
The output gap indicating the difference between the actual and potential levels of output is a critical factor for estimating the inflationary pressures in an economy. If the main target of a central bank is ensuring and maintaining the price stability, estimating the output gap with a minimum error is crucial for the efficiency of the monetary policy. In this study, we estimated the output gap in Turkey for the 2002-2014 period by using four different methods. Two of these estimation methods are purely statistical (Linear Trend and Hodrick-Presscot (HP) Filtering) while the others are integrated with the relations suggested by the economic theory (multivariate structural model and structural autoregressive (SVAR) model). By using empirical decision criteria common in the literature, we conclude that SVAR model produces the most reliable output gap estimates to explain inflationary pressures in Turkey. However, we also found that the Hodrick-Presscot filtering method is the second best methodology in the output gap estimation process.
Tax Elasticity, Buoyancy and Stability in ZimbabweIOSR Journals
The document analyzes tax elasticity, buoyancy, and stability in Zimbabwe from 2000-2013. It finds that Zimbabwe relies heavily on tax revenue to fund government spending. Using traditional regression and dummy variable approaches, the study calculates Zimbabwe's tax buoyancy at over 1, implying the tax system responds to income growth. Tax ratios varied over the period but generally increased after dollarization, reaching a peak of 40.2% in 2005. Several tables show tax performance and revenue by tax type. The document also analyzes Zimbabwe's many parastatals across various sectors and their inefficiencies that have led to losses.
QUALITY ASSURANCE FOR ECONOMY CLASSIFICATION BASED ON DATA MINING TECHNIQUESIJDKP
Researchers in the quality assurance field used traditional techniques for increasing the organization income and take the most suitable decisions. Today they focus and search for a new intelligent techniques in order to enhance the quality of their decisions. This paper based on applying the most robust trend in computer science field which is data mining in the quality assurance field. The cases study which is discussed in this paper based on detecting and predicting the developed and developing countries based on the indicators. This paper uses three different artificial intelligent techniques namely; Artificial Neural Network (ANN), k-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Fuzzy k-Nearest Neighbor (FKNN). The main target of this paper is to merge between the last intelligent techniques applied in the computer science with the quality assurance approaches. The experimental result shows that proposed approaches in this paper achieved the highest accuracy score than the other comparative studies as indicates in the experimental result section.
Efficiency Evaluation of Thailand Gross Domestic Product Using DEAIJMREMJournal
The goal of this research is to evaluate the efficiency of GDP in Thailand from the past years and provide suggestions for government and policy-makers on ways to manage inputs and improve outputs in the future while enhancing the GDP of Thailand. The paper analyzed the data collected from Office of the National Economic and Social Development of Thailand through a period of 25 years ranging from 1993 to 2017. The results show that the year 2017 was the worst years in terms of efficiency. In order to achieve the research goal, data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used. Theoretically, research has found that evaluation of GDP can be improved by eradicating the negative values of slack movement. In economic terms, the research proposed the promotion of export-led growth, business incubators, and entrepreneurship to boost not only the inputs but also the GPD of the country. In general, the GDP of Thailand is quite efficient. This research can provide strategic advice for Thai Government to improve the Gross Domestic Product thoroughly
Nigeria’s potential growth and output gap application of different econometri...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that estimates Nigeria's potential output and output gap using different econometric filtering methods, including the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Baxter-King filter, and Christiano-Fitzgerald filters. The methods yielded different but similar results over time. According to the analyses, Nigeria's economy was overheated from 2004 to 2005 but operated below capacity from 2008 to 2009. The paper also found a relationship between inflation and estimated output gaps in Nigeria. Estimating potential output and the output gap can help inform monetary policy decisions by providing insights into future price levels and economic projections.
IRJET- GDP Forecast for India using Mixed Data Sampling TechniqueIRJET Journal
This document describes a study that aimed to forecast India's GDP using a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) technique. It first conducted a preliminary study to identify macroeconomic indicators that affect India's GDP. It then used dynamic factor modeling to identify the most relevant predictors from the collected data. Twenty-two predictors varying in frequency (quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily) were identified. The MIDAS technique was then used to obtain a GDP forecast incorporating predictors of different frequencies, without averaging them to a single frequency. The forecast was compared to one obtained using a traditional regression method. The accuracy of the two forecasts was assessed by calculating forecast errors and conducting statistical tests. The results suggest the MIDAS technique provided a more accurate
Modelling Inflation using Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMM)AI Publications
Inflation becomes an important thing to become a benchmark for economic growth, investor considerations factor in choosing the type of investment, as well as determining factors for the government in formulating fiscal policy, monetary or non-monetary to be run. Inflation calculations carried out using the Consumer Price Index, known as CPI as an indicator to measure the cost of consumption of goods and services markets. Based on an analysis using GAMM was concluded R2 value of 0.996 or can be interpreted that the inflation amounted to 99.6 % can be explained by the variables used in this study and 0.4 % is explained by other factors
Similar to An Econometric Model for Inflation Rates in the Volta Region of Ghana (20)
An Examination of Effectuation Dimension as Financing Practice of Small and M...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Does Goods and Services Tax (GST) Leads to Indian Economic Development?iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Childhood Factors that influence success in later lifeiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Emotional Intelligence and Work Performance Relationship: A Study on Sales Pe...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Customer’s Acceptance of Internet Banking in Dubaiiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
A Study of Employee Satisfaction relating to Job Security & Working Hours amo...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Consumer Perspectives on Brand Preference: A Choice Based Model Approachiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Student`S Approach towards Social Network Sitesiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Broadcast Management in Nigeria: The systems approach as an imperativeiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
A Study on Retailer’s Perception on Soya Products with Special Reference to T...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
A Study Factors Influence on Organisation Citizenship Behaviour in Corporate ...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Consumers’ Behaviour on Sony Xperia: A Case Study on Bangladeshiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Design of a Balanced Scorecard on Nonprofit Organizations (Study on Yayasan P...iosrjce
1. The document describes a study that designed a balanced scorecard for a nonprofit organization called Yayasan Pembinaan dan Kesembuhan Batin (YPKB) in Malang, Indonesia.
2. The balanced scorecard translated YPKB's vision and mission into strategic objectives across four perspectives: financial, customer, internal processes, and learning and growth.
3. Key strategic objectives included donation growth, budget effectiveness, customer satisfaction, reputation, service quality, innovation, and employee development. Customers perspective had the highest weighting, suggesting a focus on public service over financial growth.
Public Sector Reforms and Outsourcing Services in Nigeria: An Empirical Evalu...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Media Innovations and its Impact on Brand awareness & Considerationiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Customer experience in supermarkets and hypermarkets – A comparative studyiosrjce
- The document examines customer experience in supermarkets and hypermarkets in India through a survey of 418 customers.
- It finds that in supermarkets, previous experience, atmosphere, price, social environment and experience in other channels most influence customer experience, while in hypermarkets, previous experience, product assortment, social environment and experience in other channels are most influential.
- The study provides insights for retailers on key determinants of customer experience in each format to help them improve strategies and competitive positioning.
Social Media and Small Businesses: A Combinational Strategic Approach under t...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Secretarial Performance and the Gender Question (A Study of Selected Tertiary...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Implementation of Quality Management principles at Zimbabwe Open University (...iosrjce
This document discusses the implementation of quality management principles at Zimbabwe Open University's Matabeleland North Regional Centre. It begins with background information on ZOU and the importance of quality management in open and distance learning institutions. The study aimed to determine if quality management and its principles were being implemented at the regional centre. Key findings included that the centre prioritized customer focus and staff involvement. Decisions were made based on data analysis. The regional centre implemented a quality system informed by its policy documents. The document recommends ensuring staffing levels match needs and providing sufficient resources to the regional centre.
Organizational Conflicts Management In Selected Organizaions In Lagos State, ...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
How Does CRISIL Evaluate Lenders in India for Credit RatingsShaheen Kumar
CRISIL evaluates lenders in India by analyzing financial performance, loan portfolio quality, risk management practices, capital adequacy, market position, and adherence to regulatory requirements. This comprehensive assessment ensures a thorough evaluation of creditworthiness and financial strength. Each criterion is meticulously examined to provide credible and reliable ratings.
^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Duba...mayaclinic18
Whatsapp (+971581248768) Buy Abortion Pills In Dubai/ Qatar/Kuwait/Doha/Abu Dhabi/Alain/RAK City/Satwa/Al Ain/Abortion Pills For Sale In Qatar, Doha. Abu az Zuluf. Abu Thaylah. Ad Dawhah al Jadidah. Al Arish, Al Bida ash Sharqiyah, Al Ghanim, Al Ghuwariyah, Qatari, Abu Dhabi, Dubai.. WHATSAPP +971)581248768 Abortion Pills / Cytotec Tablets Available in Dubai, Sharjah, Abudhabi, Ajman, Alain, Fujeira, Ras Al Khaima, Umm Al Quwain., UAE, buy cytotec in Dubai– Where I can buy abortion pills in Dubai,+971582071918where I can buy abortion pills in Abudhabi +971)581248768 , where I can buy abortion pills in Sharjah,+97158207191 8where I can buy abortion pills in Ajman, +971)581248768 where I can buy abortion pills in Umm al Quwain +971)581248768 , where I can buy abortion pills in Fujairah +971)581248768 , where I can buy abortion pills in Ras al Khaimah +971)581248768 , where I can buy abortion pills in Alain+971)581248768 , where I can buy abortion pills in UAE +971)581248768 we are providing cytotec 200mg abortion pill in dubai, uae.Medication abortion offers an alternative to Surgical Abortion for women in the early weeks of pregnancy. Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
An Econometric Model for Inflation Rates in the Volta Region of Ghana
1. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF)
e-ISSN: 2321-5933, p-ISSN: 2321-5925.Volume 6, Issue 6. Ver. II (Nov. - Dec. 2015), PP 48-55
www.iosrjournals.org
DOI: 10.9790/5933-06624855 www.iosrjournals.org 48 | Page
An Econometric Model for Inflation Rates in the Volta Region of
Ghana
Francis Okyere1
, FranÇois Mahama2
, Solomon Yemidi3
, Elikem Kofi Krampa4
1
National Vocational Training Institute (NVTI), Ghana, P. O. Box MB 21, Accra, Ghana
2,3,4
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Ho Polytechnic, Ghana, P. O. Box, HP 217, Ho – Volta, Ghana,
Abstract : Ghana has been challenged by high inflation rates for a long period of time. The phenomenon in
many cases leaves in its trail adverse economic consequences. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana
becomes very important for government and central bank to design fiscal measures or effective monetary
policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. For firms and households, knowledge about the
rate of inflation in future enables them to factor it into their planning so as to guard against unpleasant
ramifications. This paper employs Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique to model
inflation rates in Volta region of Ghana. Using monthly inflation rates data from January 2009 to September
2015, we find that ARIMA (2,1,2) can be used to study the behavior of the data in the Volta region of Ghana
regarding inflation rates. Based on the selected model, we forecasted six (6) months inflation rates for the
region outside the sample period (i.e. from October 2015 to March 2016). From the out-sample forecast, we
surmise that Volta region is likely to experience continuous double digit inflation rates. Hence, policy makers
should re-evaluate their policies in order to determine other factors that contribute to the high inflation rates.
Keywords - Volta region Inflation, Forecasting, ARIMA model, Unit Root test, ARCH–LM test
I. Introduction
Inflation can broadly be defined as the sustained increase in the general price level of goods and
services in a country or a given geographical area over a period of time, usually one year. Inflation occurs when
demand for goods and services exceeds their supply in the economy [25]. Price stability is a healthy monetary
policy that can enhance economic growth and prosperity. It is now universally accepted that price stability is a
cornerstone of modern well-functioning economies and high inflation distorts wealth redistribution in an
economy, because it arbitrarily redistributes wealth among different groups of people in a society [9]. Inflation
is widely discussed because it changes the purchasing power of money and real values of variables such as
interest rates, wages and many others. This explains why it is a very important issue of concern to policy makers
especially when it assumes a relatively high level in a country over a time period (e.g. monthly, quarterly or
annually). Ghana Statistical Service [13] said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change over time in
the general price level of goods and services that households acquire for the purpose of consumption, with
reference to price level in 2012, the base year, which has index of 100. The general prices of goods and services
are taken from the ten (10) regions of Ghana. At the regional level, inflation rates vary and this means that food
and non-food inflation rates are not the same. That is why Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) releases regional
inflation rates aside the national rate.
Inflation is one macroeconomic indicator that affects all other levels of the economy especially
business transactions. It is, to a large extent, responsible for currency fluctuations which go a long way to
influence planning in business. For this reason, it is plausible to forecast or estimate future inflation rates so that
such rates are incorporated in decision affecting Volta Region in particular and the country at large.
Empirical researches have been carried out in the area of inflation rates modelling and forecasting in Ghana.
Examples include (see [9]; [27]; [26]; [8]; and [6]). All these researchers attempted to model only the national
inflation rate of Ghana.
Among the most effective approaches for analysing time series data is the method propounded by Box
and Jenkins, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. ARIMA models had been used in
several field of study by these researchers (see [21]; [11]; [10]; [29]; [23]; [22]; [17]; [24] [5]; [1]; [7]; [28];
[16]; [3]; [19]; [2]; [25]; [15] and [18]).
In this study, our main objective was to model and forecast six (6) months of Volta region inflation
rates of Ghana outside the sample period. The forecast is very important for regional ministers / economic
policy makers to foresee ahead of time the possible future requirements to design economic strategies and
effective monetary policies to combat any expected high inflation rates in the Volta region. Forecasts will also
play a crucial role in business, industry, government, and institutional planning because many important
decisions depend on the anticipated future values of inflation rate.
2. An Econometric Model for Inflation Rates in the Volta Region of Ghana
DOI: 10.9790/5933-06624855 www.iosrjournals.org 49 | Page
II. Materials And Method
This study was carried out in Ghana in October, 2015, using monthly Volta region inflation rates of
Ghana from January 2009 to September 2015. Volta Region [14] is one of Ghana's ten administrative regions. It
is to the east of Lake Volta. Its administrative capital is Ho. The region’s population in 2000 was 1,635,421 and
2,118,252 in 2010 (see [4]). Agriculture/Hunting/ Forestry industry is the largest sector in the region and indeed
in all the districts, except the Keta District, where fishing is the main industry. Males predominate in the
Construction; Transport/Storage and Communication sectors while females predominate in the Wholesale/Retail
Trade and the Hotels/Restaurant industries. The information on the employment status reveals that majority of
the people in the region are self-employed (see [14]).
The Volta inflation rates data was obtained from Ghana Statistical Service and we used R Studio
Software for the data analysis. The data was modeled using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA) stochastic model. An ARIMA (p, d, q) model is a combination of Autoregressive (AR) which shows
that there is a relationship between present and past values, a random value and a Moving Average (MA) model
which shows that the present value has something to do with the past residuals. These models are fitted to time
series data either to better understand the data or to predict future points in the series.
2.1 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model
A time series tY is said to follow Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model if the dth
differences
d
tY follow a stationary ARMA model. There are three important values which characterize an
ARIMA process [20]:
p, the order of the autoregressive component
d, the number of differencing needed to arrive at a stationary ARMA(p, q) process
q, the order of the moving average component
The general form of the ARIMA (p,d,q) is represented by a backward shift operator as
1
d
t tB B Y B e (1)
where the AR and MA characteristic operators are
2
1 21 ... p
pB B B B (2)
2
1 21 ... q
qB B B B (3)
and
1
d d
t tB Y Y (4)
where
is the parameter estimate of the Autoregressive component
is the parameter estimate of the Moving Average component
d
is the difference operator
B is the backward shift operator
te is a purely a random process with mean zero and
2
var( )t ee
The estimation of the model consists of three steps, namely: identification, estimation of parameters
and diagnostic checking.
2.2 Model Identification
Identification step involves the use of the techniques to determine the values of p, d, and q, the values
are determined by using Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF). For any
ARIMA (p, d, q) process, the theoretical PACF has non-zero partial autocorrelations at lags 1, 2, ..., p and has
zero partial autocorrelations at all lags 1, 2,...,p p p n , while the theoretical ACF has non zero
autocorrelation at lags 1, 2, …, q and zero autocorrelations at all lags 1, 2,...,q q q n
2.2.1 Unit Root Test of Stationarity
Determining whether the time series is stationary or not is a very important concept before making any
inferences in time series analysis. Therefore, Phillips Perron (PP) test has been used to check the stationarity of
the series. The test is based on the assumption that a time series data ty follows a random walk.
1t t ty y e (5)
3. An Econometric Model for Inflation Rates in the Volta Region of Ghana
DOI: 10.9790/5933-06624855 www.iosrjournals.org 50 | Page
where is the characteristic root of an AR polynomial and te is purely a random process with mean zero and
variance
2
.
2.3 Estimation of Model Parameters
After identifying the possible ARIMA models, the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate
the model parameters.
2.4 Diagnostic Checking
The next step is to select the best model among all the identified models. For this, residual diagnostics
and the model with the maximum value of log-likelihood and minimum values of modified Akaike Information
Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute
Error (MAE) was considered as the best model. Under the residual diagnostics, Ljung-Box Q statistic is used to
check whether the residuals are random or not.
2.5.1 Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)
The Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) says select the ARIMA(p, d, q) model which minimizes,
2ln 2AIC L k (6)
where ln L is the natural logarithm of the estimated likelihood function and k p q is the number of
parameters in the model. The AIC is an estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler divergence, which measures
the closeness of a candidate model to the truth. The smaller this divergence, the better the model.
A problem arises in that AIC is a biased estimator of the expected KL divergence in ARIMA(p, d,
q) models. An alternative AIC statistic which corrects for this bias is,
2( 1)( 2)
2
k k
AICc AIC
n k
(7)
2.4.2 Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)
The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) says select the ARIMA(p, d, q) model which minimizes,
2ln 2 ln( )BIC L k n (8)
where ln L is the natural logarithm of the estimated likelihood function and k p q is the number of
parameters in the model and n is total observations.
Both AIC and BIC require the maximization of the log likelihood function and when we compared
AICc to BIC, BIC offers a stiffer penalty for over parameterized models.
An overall check of the model adequacy was made using the modified Box-Pierce Q statistic. The test statistic is
given by:
1 2 2
1
( 2)
n
m k m rk
Q n n n k r x
(9)
where:
2
kr = the residuals autocorrelation at lag
n = the number of residual
m = the number of time lags included in the test.
When the p-value associated with the Q is large the model is considered adequate, else the whole
estimation process has to start again in order to get the most adequate model. Here all the tests were performed
at the 95% confidence interval.
Furthermore, an ARCH LM-test was performed on the residuals to check the presence of ARCH effect.
III. Results And Discussion
Inflation has been one of the macroeconomic problems confronting Ghana for a long period of time. It
has been one of the contributing factors to the fast depreciation of the Ghanaian Cedi.
In this research we analyze eighty-one (81) monthly observations of Volta region inflation rate of
Ghana from January 2009 to September 2015. The data was obtained from Ghana Statistical Service. Figure 1
describes the features of the data.
4. An Econometric Model for Inflation Rates in the Volta Region of Ghana
DOI: 10.9790/5933-06624855 www.iosrjournals.org 51 | Page
FIGURE 1: Time series plot, ACF and PACF plot for monthly Volta region inflation rates
From Fig. 1, it can be confirmed that the inflation volatility. The volatility in Volta region’s inflation
series can be attributed to several economic factors. The mean and variance ought to be adjusted to form
stationary series, so that the values vary more or less uniformly about a fixed level over time. This is also seen
from the ACF plot of the series in Fig. 1, which shows a slow decline. Also, PACF plot has a very significant
spike at lag 1. The Phillips Perron (PP) test further confirms this observation. The first difference achieved
stationarity as shown in Table 1.
TABLE 1: Unit Root test for Volta region inflation rates of Ghana
Order of Difference PP test statistic p-value
0
1
-7.9050
-115.7321
0.6523
0.0100
The next step in the model building procedure is to determine the order of the AR and MA for non-
seasonal components. Cryer and Chan [20] suggested the term 2( 1)p q or 2( )p q serves as a penalty
function to help ensure selection of parsimonious models and to avoid choosing model with too many
parameters.
This can be suggested by the sample ACF and PACF plots based on the Box-Jenkins approach. From
Fig. 2, ACF tails off at lag 1 and the PACF spikes at lag 1 suggesting that 1 1q and p would be
needed to describe these data as coming from a non-seasonal moving average and autoregressive process
respectively. Again, we had a significant spike at lag 5 of both ACF and PACF plot but it may be due to random
influence. To ensure parsimonious model and checking parameter inadequacy or over fitting, we reduced/added
parameters to tentative model of ARIMA(1,1,1).
5. An Econometric Model for Inflation Rates in the Volta Region of Ghana
DOI: 10.9790/5933-06624855 www.iosrjournals.org 52 | Page
FIGURE 2: Volta Region Inflation Rates of Ghana first order difference
TABLE 2: Selection of Best ( ,1, )ARIMA p q Model
Model AIC AICc BIC RMSE MAE
ARIMA(0,1,1)
ARIMA(1,1,0)
ARIMA(1,1,1)
ARIMA(2,1,1)
ARIMA(2,1,2)
ARIMA(3,1,1)
371.81
369.15
369.90
369.63
362.52*
372.68
372.03
369.30
370.22
370.16
363.33*
373.83
376.63
373.91
373.05*
379.15
374.43
386.97
2.39
2.35
2.33
2.30
2.09*
2.28
1.54
1.52
1.54
1.52
1.42*
1.50
Note *Based on selected best model
After the models have been identified, the procedure for choosing these models relies on choosing the
model with the minimum AIC, AICc, BIC, RMSE and MAE. The models are presented in Table 2 & 3, with
their corresponding values of AIC, AICc, BIC, RMSE and MAE. Among those possible models, comparing
their AIC, AICc, BIC, RMSE and MAE as shown in Table 2 & 3, ARIMA (2,1,2) was chosen as the appropriate
model that fits the data well, despite BIC chose ARIMA(1,1,1), the rest of the selection criterions were in favor
of ARIMA (2,1,2).
From our derived models, using the method of maximum likelihood the estimated parameters of the models with
their corresponding standard error is shown in Table 3. Based on these model selection criteria (AIC, AICc,
BIC, RMSE and MAE) and white noise variance estimate
2
e , we conclude that all the coefficients of the
ARIMA(2,1,2) model are significantly different from zero and the estimated values satisfy the stability
condition.
TABLE 3: Parameter estimates of ARIMA(2,1,2)
Model Component Parameter Coefficient Std. Error P-value
ARIMA(2,1,2)
AR(1)
AR(2)
MA(1)
MA(2)
1
2
1
2
0.4499
-0.4486
-1.1066
1.0000
0.1057
0.1069
0.0584
0.0882
0.000010
0.000013
0.000000
0.000000
Log-likelihood -176.26 RMSE 2.09
AIC 362.52 MAE 1.42
AICc 363.33
2
e 4.44
BIC 374.43
6. An Econometric Model for Inflation Rates in the Volta Region of Ghana
DOI: 10.9790/5933-06624855 www.iosrjournals.org 53 | Page
In time series modeling, the selection of a best model fit to the data is directly related to whether
residual analysis is performed well. One of the assumptions of ARIMA model is that, for a good model, the
residuals must follow a white noise process. That is, the residuals have zero mean, constant variance and also
uncorrelated. From Fig. 3, the standardized residual reveals that the residuals of the model have zero mean and
constant variance. Also the ACF of the residuals depicts that the autocorrelation of the residuals are all zero, that
is to say they are uncorrelated. Finally, the p-values for the Ljung-Box statistic in the third panel all clearly
exceeds 5% for all lag orders, indicating that there is no significant departure from white noise for the residuals.
FIGURE 3: Diagnostic plot of Residuals of ARIMA(2,1,2)
TABLE 4: ARCH–LM Test for Homoscedasticity
Model Chi-squared p-value
ARIMA(2,1,2) 22.5947 0.5438
To support the information displayed by Fig. 3, we used the Autoregressive Conditional
Heterocedasticity-Lagrange Multiplier (ARCH–LM) and t tests to test for constant variance and zero mean
assumption respectively. From the ARCH–LM test results as shown in Table 4, we fail to reject the null
hypothesis of no ARCH effect (homoscedasticity) in the residuals of the selected model. Also from t test results,
since the p-value of 0.5438 is greater than 5% alpha level, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that, the mean of
the residuals is approximately equal to zero. Hence, we conclude that there is a constant variance among
residuals of the selected model and the true mean of the residuals is approximately equal to zero. Thus, the
selected model satisfies all the model assumptions. Since our model ARIMA (2,1,2) satisfies all the necessary
assumptions, now we can say that the model provide an adequate representation of the data.
In other form, ARIMA (2,1,2) can be written as,
1 2 3 1 21.4499 0.8985 0.4486 1.1066t t t t t t tY Y Y Y e e e
The full details of the above derived equation can be seen at appendix for your consumption.
3.1 Forecasting
Forecasting plays an important role in decision making process. It is a planning tool which helps
decision makers to foresee the future uncertainty based on the behavior of past and current observations.
Forecasting as described by Box and Jenkins [12], provides basis for economic and business planning, inventory
and production control and control and optimization of industrial processes. From Table 2, the forecast accuracy
of ARIMA (2,1,2) was better because its Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
are smaller as compared to the other tentative models. Table 5, shows a forecast of Volta region inflation rates
for six (6) months.
7. An Econometric Model for Inflation Rates in the Volta Region of Ghana
DOI: 10.9790/5933-06624855 www.iosrjournals.org 54 | Page
TABLE 5: ARIMA(2,1,2) Forecasting Results for Volta Region Inflation Rates of Ghana
Year Month Forecast Lower Bound Upper Bound
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
October
November
December
January
February
March
18.66
18.59
17.94
17.68
17.85
18.05
14.48
14.15
12.86
11.13
9.94
9.26
22.84
23.02
23.03
24.24
25.78
26.85
IV. Conclusion
This study used time series analysis to model monthly inflation rates of Volta region of Ghana using
data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) from the year 2009 to 2015. The modeling of the inflation rate
was done mainly by ARIMA model. The Study revealed that, inflation rate was best modeled with
1 2 3 1 21.4499 0.8985 0.4486 1.1066t t t t t t tY Y Y Y e e e or ARIMA (2, 1, 2). The diagnostics
of this model showed that the model adequately fits the series hence is adequate for the forecasting Volta region
inflation rates of Ghana. Six (6) month’s forecast with the model for the year 2015/2016 showed fluctuation in
the inflation pattern but the values were within 17% and 18%. From the out-sample forecast, we surmise that
Volta region is likely to experience continuous double digit inflation rates from October 2015 to March 2016.
Hence, policy makers should re-evaluate their policies in order to determine other factors that contribute to the
high inflation rates because it has effect on national rates.
Appendix
A predictive model, ARIMA(2,1,2) for Volta region inflation rates of Ghana
ARIMA(2,1,2) process
Suppose te is zero mean white noise process with 2
var t ee . An ( , , )ARIMA p d q process with
2, 1p d and 2q is called an (2,1,2)ARIMA process and can be expressed as;
12 2
1 2 1 2
2 2
1 2 1 2
2 2 3 2
1 2 1 2 1 2
1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 2
1 1 1 (1)
1 1 (2)
(3)
(4)
Re (4),
t t
t t t
t t t t t t t t t
t t t t t t t t t
B B B Y B B e
B B Y BY B B e
Y BY B Y BY B Y B Y e Be B e
Y Y Y Y Y Y e e e
By arrangement of wehave
Y
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 2
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 2
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 2
1
2
1
(5)
1 (6)
1 (7)
3,
0.4499
0.4486
1.1066 [ ,
t t t t t t t t t
t t t t t t t
t t t t t t t
Y Y Y Y Y e e e
Y Y Y Y e e e
Y Y Y Y e e e
FromTable
Note R sof
2
1 2 3 1 2
/ ]
1.0000 [ , / ]
in(7),
1 0.4499 0.4499 ( 0.4486) ( 0.4486) (1.1066) ( 1.0000)
1.4499
t t t t t t t
t
twarenegates MA parameters estimates
Note R softwarenegates MA parameters estimates
By substitutions
Y Y Y Y e e e
Y
1 2 3 1 20.8985 0.4486 1.1066t t t t t tY Y Y e e e
Source: Author’s calculations
8. An Econometric Model for Inflation Rates in the Volta Region of Ghana
DOI: 10.9790/5933-06624855 www.iosrjournals.org 55 | Page
References
[1]. A. S. Sarpong, Modeling and Forecasting Maternal Mortality; an Application of ARIMA Models, International Journal of Applied
Science and Technology, 3(1), 2013, 19-28.
[2]. B. Chaves, Stochastic modelling of monthly sun bright in coffee growing areas, Revista Colombiana de Estad´ıstica, 25(1), 2012,
59-71.
[3]. C. J. Andreeski and P. M. Vasant, Comparative Analysis of Bifurcation Time Series, Biomedical Soft Computing and Human
Sciences, 13(1), 2008, 45-52.
[4]. Census, 2010 census population by region, distribution, age groupings and sex,
http://www.statsghana.gov.gh/docfiles/pop_by_region_district_age_groups_and_sex_2010.pdf, accessed on September 21, 2015.
[5]. D. M. K. N. Seneviratna and M. Mao Shuhua, Forecasting the Twelve Month Treasury Bill Rates in Sri Lanka: Box Jenkins
Approach, Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF) 1(1), 2013, 44 – 47.
[6]. E. Aidoo, Modelling and Forecasting Inflation Rates in Ghana: An Application of SARIMA Models [Master’s Thesis], Högskolan
Dalarna School of Technology and Business Studies. Sweden, 2010.
[7]. F. K. Oduro-Gyimah, K. Harris and K. F. Darkwah, Sarima Time Series Model Application to Microwave Transmission of Yeji-
Salaga (Ghana) Line-Of-Sight Link, International Journal of Applied Science and Technology, 2(9), 2012, 40-51.
[8]. F. K. Owusu, Time series ARIMA modelling of inflation in Ghana: (1990-2009), [Unpublished Master’s Thesis], Kwame Nkrumah
University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana, 2010.
[9]. F. Okyere and C. Mensah, Empirical Modelling and Model Selection for Forecasting Monthly Inflation of Ghana, Mathematical
Theory and Modeling, 4(3), 2014, 99-106.
[10]. F. Okyere and L. Kyei, Temporal Modelling of Producer Price Inflation Rates of Ghana, Journal of Mathematics (IOSR-JM), 10(3),
2014, 70-77.
[11]. F. Okyere and S. Nanga, Forecasting Weekly Auction of the 91-Day Treasury Bill Rates of Ghana, Journal of Economics and
Finance (IOSR-JEF), 3(5), 2014, 46-53.
[12]. G. E. P. Box and G. M. Jenkins, Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, San Francisco, Holden-Day, California, USA,
1976.
[13]. Ghana Statistical Service, Newsletter Consumer Price Index September 2015 New series,
http://www.statsghana.gov.gh/docfiles/new_CPI_pdfs/CPI_2015/CPI_Newsletter%20Sept_2015.pdf, accessed on September 15,
2015.
[14]. Government of Ghana, Volta Region, http://www.ghana.gov.gh/index.php/about-ghana/regions/volta, accessed on September 21,
2015.
[15]. H. A. S. Valle, Inflation forecasts with ARIMA and vector autoregressive models in Guatemala. Economic Research Department,
Guatemala, Banco de Guatemala, 2002.
[16]. H. Javedani, M. H. Lee and Suhartono, An Evaluation of some Classical Methods for Forecasting Electricity Usage on Specific
Problem. Journal of Statistical Modeling and Analytics, 2(1), 2011, 1-10.
[17]. I. A. Adetunde and F. K. Datsomor, Time Series Behaviour of Non-traditional Exports of Ghana, International Journal of Modern
Mathematical Sciences, 7(1), 2013, 102-120.
[18]. I. Kaushik and M. S. Singh, Seasonal ARIMA model for forecasting of monthly rainfall and temperature, Journal of Environmental
Research and Development, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 506-514, 2008.
[19]. J. Contreras, R. Espínola, F. N. Nogales and A. J. Conejo, ARIMA Models to Predict Next-Day Electricity Prices, IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, 18(3), 2003, 1014-1020.
[20]. J. D. Cryer and K. S. Chan, Time series analysis with application in R, New York, USA, Springer, 2008.
[21]. K. Assis, A. Amran and Y. Remali, Forecasting cocoa bean prices using univariate time series models, International Refereed
Research Journal, 1(1), 2010, 71-80.
[22]. O. K. Onasanya and O. E. Adeniji, O. E, Forecasting of exchange rate between naira and us dollar using time domain model,
International Journal of Development and Economic Sustainability, 1(1), 2013, 45-55.
[23]. P. C. Etebong, Using Normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to Improve Box - Jenkins Model Building, American
Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 4(5), 2014, 214-221.
[24]. P. Chujai, N. Kerdprasop and K. Kerdprasop, Time Series Analysis of Household Electric Consumption with ARIMA and ARMA
Models, Proceedings of the International MultiConference of Engineers and Computer Scientists, 1, 2013, 295-300.
[25]. Q. A. Samad, M. Z. Ali and M. Z. Hossain, The forecasting performance of the Box-Jenkins Model: the case of wheat and wheat
flour prices in Bangladesh. The Indian Journal of Economics, vol. LXXXII(327), 2002, 509-518.
[26]. R. Hall, Inflation, Causes and Effects, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1982
[27]. S. E. Alnaa and F. Ahiakpor, ARIMA approach to predicting inflation Ghana, Journal of Economics and International Finance,
3(5), 2011, 328-336.
[28]. S. Nasiru and S. Sarpong, Empirical Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Inflation in Ghana, Current Research Journal of
Economic Theory, 4(3), 2012, 83-87.
[29]. S. T. Appiah and L. A. Adetunde (2011), Forecasting Exchange rate between the Ghana Cedi and the US dollar using time series
analysis. Current research journal of economic theory, 3(2), 2011, 76 -83.
[30]. Zakai, M (2014), A Time Series Modeling On GDP of Pakistan, Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business Research, 4(3), 2014,
200 – 210.