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Follow my Friends this Friday.
An Analysis of Human-Generated
Friendship Recommendations
Ruth García-Gavilanes,
Neil O’Hare, Luca Maria Aiello, Alejandro Jaimes
@ruthygarcia
Universidad San Francisco de Quito
November 15, 2016
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 3 of 23
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 4 of 23
Computational
Social Science
Computational Social Sciences
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 5 of 23
Computational Social Sciences
Computational
Social Science
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 6 of 23
•  Hashtags to recommend people every Friday
•  No personalized recommendations of who to follow in 2010
•  It became trendy and a lot of people used it
•  Most popular hashtag in 2010 in several countries
Tweets with #followfriday and #ff
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 7 of 23
SOCIAL NETWORK RECOMMENDS PEOPLE TO
FOLLOW ON FRIDAYS.
TARGET USER
follows
Tie Strength
to follow or not to follow?
What is the Follow Friday Trend?
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 8 of 23
•  Analyze the dynamics of Follow Friday trend
•  Interactions, Impact , effect in time, repetitions and longevity.
•  Develop a recommender system for ranking human-generated
recommendations received by the user.
•  Identify important features and best classifier
Contributions
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 9 of 23
FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAYTHURSDAY
Follows Who is new?
Follows
?
#followfriday
RECEIVER
RECOMMENDER RECOMMENDED
USERS
ACCEPTED
RECOMMENDATION
93% of follow friday Tweets
48 snapshots
24 weeks
snapshot snapshot
Methodology
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 10 of 23
Total
Initial set of users 55,000
Receivers 21,270
Recommenders 589,844
Recommendation 3,261,133
Recommendation Instances 59,055,205
Accepted Recommendation Instances 354,687
Dataset
0.60% of recommendation instances are accepted
0.86% of recommendations are acceptedGarcía-Gavilanes, Ruth 11 of 23
0.60%
0.90%
1.00%
1.10%
1.20%
9.50%
9.70%
14.50%
Recommender -> Recommendation
Recommender <-> Recommendation
Receiver -> Recommender
Recommender -> Receiver
Recommender <-> Recommendation
Receiver -> Recommendation
Recommendation -> Receiver
Receiver <-> Recommendation
Effect of Interaction
Interactions improve
Acceptance but not
common in FF
recommendations
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 12 of 23
•  We need to compare Follow Friday recommendations
to other models:
•  Implicit : Mentions that were not Follow Friday recommendations
•  Unobserved : Follow Friday recommendations of the future only
Impact
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 13 of 23
Follow Friday recommendations
outperform the two alternative conditions
Performance
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 14 of 23
A small proportion follow recommendations
anyway even without repetitions.
Acceptance after n weeks
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 15 of 23
Longevity
More #ff accepted recommendation
are still in receiver network after
12 weeks
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 16 of 23
Repetitions and # of Recommenders
Repetitions and # of recommenders make a significant difference
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 17
15 implicit = 1 #ff
USER-BASED
(per user)
Popularity
•  Followers vs Followees
•  Mentions by other users
•  Recommendations
Activity
•  Average tweets per day
•  New followees
•  Accepted recommendations
and recommenders
•  Mentions
RECOMMENDATION-BASED
(per recommendation)
Repetitions
•  Repeated recommendations
•  Different recommenders
Format
•  Day of the week
•  Re-tweet or not
•  Same tweet
recommendations
•  Urls
RELATION-BASED
(per pair)
Tie Strength
•  Mentionss
•  Folllow Friday
recommendations
•  Previous acceptances
•  Friendship longevity
Similarity
•  Words, mentions,
hashtags and urls
•  Geolocation
Features for a classifier
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 18 of 23
•  Three methods: Rotation Forest, Linear combination and random
•  Training : week 1 to 16
•  Test : week 17 to 23
•  Goal : accepted recommendations towards the top of the ranking
•  Evaluation: Mean Average Precision
•  Up to 2 weeks to calculate acceptance rate
•  Balanced set for training
Classifiers and methodology
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 19 of 23
Ranking MAP
Rotation Forest 0.496
Linear
Combination
0.057
Random 0.037
Features MAP
All 0.496
User-based 0.074
Relation-based 0.398
Recommendation-
based
0.062
User + Relation 0.518
User + Format 0.079
Relation + Format 0.379
Results using WEKA
Most important feature is
previous behavior of the
receiver in accepted
recommendations from the
recommender.
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 20 of 23
•  Recommendations derived from social networks have an impact
on users decisions
•  Social accepted recommendations seems to last longer/more
relevant
•  Many broadcasted recommendations are not seen
•  Not accepted recommendations can be followed in the future
•  Relation and user based features are better predictors of tie
formation
Lessons learned
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 21 of 23
QUESTIONS?
@ruthygarcia
ruthygarciag@gmail.com
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 23 of 23
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 23 of 23
Rotation Forest
•  Boos$ng	
•  Ensemble classifier: same classifier model trained on different
data subsets or feature subsets.
•  Bagging: majority voting bootstrapping, random forest
•  Boosting: AdaBoost – classifiers are added one at a time
and more weights on “hard to classify” data
•  Problem: diversity and accuracy
•  Solution: Rotation Forest
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 24 of 23
Rotation Forest
•  Boos$ng	
•  Proposed in 2006 by Rodríguez et al.
•  Ensemble method which trains L decision trees independently,
•  using a different set of extracted features for each tree data
subsets or feature subsets.
•  Each tree is trained on the whole data set in a rotated feature
space.
•  A small rotation of the axes may lead to a very different tree
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 25 of 23
•  Boos$ng
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 26 of 23
•  Boos$ng
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 27 of 23
Rotation Forest
•  Boos$ng	
Rotation matrix for Fi,j
How to rearrange for all subsets?
References
•  Ruth García-Gavilanes, Neil O’Hare, Luca Maria Aiello, Alejandro Jaimes. Follow My Friends This Friday! An Analysis of
Human- generated Friendship Recommendations. In The 5th International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo),
Springer 2013. [Best paper award]
•  Juan J. Rodriguez, Ludmila I. Kuncheva, and Carlos J. Alonso. 2006. Rotation Forest: A New Classifier Ensemble Method.
IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 28, 10 (October 2006), 1619-1630. DOI=http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TPAMI.2006.211
García-Gavilanes, Ruth 28 of 23

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An Analysis of Human-Generated Friendship Recommendations

  • 1. Follow my Friends this Friday. An Analysis of Human-Generated Friendship Recommendations Ruth García-Gavilanes, Neil O’Hare, Luca Maria Aiello, Alejandro Jaimes @ruthygarcia Universidad San Francisco de Quito November 15, 2016
  • 4. Computational Social Science Computational Social Sciences García-Gavilanes, Ruth 5 of 23
  • 5. Computational Social Sciences Computational Social Science García-Gavilanes, Ruth 6 of 23
  • 6. •  Hashtags to recommend people every Friday •  No personalized recommendations of who to follow in 2010 •  It became trendy and a lot of people used it •  Most popular hashtag in 2010 in several countries Tweets with #followfriday and #ff García-Gavilanes, Ruth 7 of 23
  • 7. SOCIAL NETWORK RECOMMENDS PEOPLE TO FOLLOW ON FRIDAYS. TARGET USER follows Tie Strength to follow or not to follow? What is the Follow Friday Trend? García-Gavilanes, Ruth 8 of 23
  • 8. •  Analyze the dynamics of Follow Friday trend •  Interactions, Impact , effect in time, repetitions and longevity. •  Develop a recommender system for ranking human-generated recommendations received by the user. •  Identify important features and best classifier Contributions García-Gavilanes, Ruth 9 of 23
  • 9. FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAYTHURSDAY Follows Who is new? Follows ? #followfriday RECEIVER RECOMMENDER RECOMMENDED USERS ACCEPTED RECOMMENDATION 93% of follow friday Tweets 48 snapshots 24 weeks snapshot snapshot Methodology García-Gavilanes, Ruth 10 of 23
  • 10. Total Initial set of users 55,000 Receivers 21,270 Recommenders 589,844 Recommendation 3,261,133 Recommendation Instances 59,055,205 Accepted Recommendation Instances 354,687 Dataset 0.60% of recommendation instances are accepted 0.86% of recommendations are acceptedGarcía-Gavilanes, Ruth 11 of 23
  • 11. 0.60% 0.90% 1.00% 1.10% 1.20% 9.50% 9.70% 14.50% Recommender -> Recommendation Recommender <-> Recommendation Receiver -> Recommender Recommender -> Receiver Recommender <-> Recommendation Receiver -> Recommendation Recommendation -> Receiver Receiver <-> Recommendation Effect of Interaction Interactions improve Acceptance but not common in FF recommendations García-Gavilanes, Ruth 12 of 23
  • 12. •  We need to compare Follow Friday recommendations to other models: •  Implicit : Mentions that were not Follow Friday recommendations •  Unobserved : Follow Friday recommendations of the future only Impact García-Gavilanes, Ruth 13 of 23
  • 13. Follow Friday recommendations outperform the two alternative conditions Performance García-Gavilanes, Ruth 14 of 23
  • 14. A small proportion follow recommendations anyway even without repetitions. Acceptance after n weeks García-Gavilanes, Ruth 15 of 23
  • 15. Longevity More #ff accepted recommendation are still in receiver network after 12 weeks García-Gavilanes, Ruth 16 of 23
  • 16. Repetitions and # of Recommenders Repetitions and # of recommenders make a significant difference García-Gavilanes, Ruth 17 15 implicit = 1 #ff
  • 17. USER-BASED (per user) Popularity •  Followers vs Followees •  Mentions by other users •  Recommendations Activity •  Average tweets per day •  New followees •  Accepted recommendations and recommenders •  Mentions RECOMMENDATION-BASED (per recommendation) Repetitions •  Repeated recommendations •  Different recommenders Format •  Day of the week •  Re-tweet or not •  Same tweet recommendations •  Urls RELATION-BASED (per pair) Tie Strength •  Mentionss •  Folllow Friday recommendations •  Previous acceptances •  Friendship longevity Similarity •  Words, mentions, hashtags and urls •  Geolocation Features for a classifier García-Gavilanes, Ruth 18 of 23
  • 18. •  Three methods: Rotation Forest, Linear combination and random •  Training : week 1 to 16 •  Test : week 17 to 23 •  Goal : accepted recommendations towards the top of the ranking •  Evaluation: Mean Average Precision •  Up to 2 weeks to calculate acceptance rate •  Balanced set for training Classifiers and methodology García-Gavilanes, Ruth 19 of 23
  • 19. Ranking MAP Rotation Forest 0.496 Linear Combination 0.057 Random 0.037 Features MAP All 0.496 User-based 0.074 Relation-based 0.398 Recommendation- based 0.062 User + Relation 0.518 User + Format 0.079 Relation + Format 0.379 Results using WEKA Most important feature is previous behavior of the receiver in accepted recommendations from the recommender. García-Gavilanes, Ruth 20 of 23
  • 20. •  Recommendations derived from social networks have an impact on users decisions •  Social accepted recommendations seems to last longer/more relevant •  Many broadcasted recommendations are not seen •  Not accepted recommendations can be followed in the future •  Relation and user based features are better predictors of tie formation Lessons learned García-Gavilanes, Ruth 21 of 23
  • 22. García-Gavilanes, Ruth 23 of 23 Rotation Forest •  Boos$ng •  Ensemble classifier: same classifier model trained on different data subsets or feature subsets. •  Bagging: majority voting bootstrapping, random forest •  Boosting: AdaBoost – classifiers are added one at a time and more weights on “hard to classify” data •  Problem: diversity and accuracy •  Solution: Rotation Forest
  • 23. García-Gavilanes, Ruth 24 of 23 Rotation Forest •  Boos$ng •  Proposed in 2006 by Rodríguez et al. •  Ensemble method which trains L decision trees independently, •  using a different set of extracted features for each tree data subsets or feature subsets. •  Each tree is trained on the whole data set in a rotated feature space. •  A small rotation of the axes may lead to a very different tree
  • 24. García-Gavilanes, Ruth 25 of 23 •  Boos$ng
  • 25. García-Gavilanes, Ruth 26 of 23 •  Boos$ng
  • 26. García-Gavilanes, Ruth 27 of 23 Rotation Forest •  Boos$ng Rotation matrix for Fi,j How to rearrange for all subsets?
  • 27. References •  Ruth García-Gavilanes, Neil O’Hare, Luca Maria Aiello, Alejandro Jaimes. Follow My Friends This Friday! An Analysis of Human- generated Friendship Recommendations. In The 5th International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo), Springer 2013. [Best paper award] •  Juan J. Rodriguez, Ludmila I. Kuncheva, and Carlos J. Alonso. 2006. Rotation Forest: A New Classifier Ensemble Method. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 28, 10 (October 2006), 1619-1630. DOI=http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TPAMI.2006.211 García-Gavilanes, Ruth 28 of 23