Albania has made progress towards stability and European Union accession in recent years. Political elections in 2013 returned the Socialist party to power, and they are working to reform government, the economy, and the environment, though challenges remain around corruption and organized crime. Relations in the Balkan region are also improving, as leaders of Albania, Serbia, and Kosovo recently met for the first time in decades, a sign tensions may be easing. While obstacles like infrastructure limit economic growth, Albania's NATO membership and EU candidacy status provide stability, and if reforms continue the country is poised to make further progress.

1. Albania:
Poised
For
Progress
Albanian
nationalists
re-­‐used
the
double-­‐headed
eagle
during
the
late
19th
and
early
20th
centuries
as
a
symbol
of
their
campaign
for
their
country's
independence
from
the
Ottoman
Empire
in
(1912)
A
Security
Study
Prepared
By
Stephanie
Morrison
Professor:
Dr.
Alexandra
Luce
November
18th
,
2014
INTEL
510
–Mercyhurst
University
Applied
Intelligence
Studies

2. 2
Albania
Security
Study
Table
of
Contents
Executive
Summary
–
Overall
Estimate................................................................3
• Figure
(1)
Map
of
Albania
• Figure
(2)
Prevalence
of
Bribery
Intelligence
Collection
Plan
(ICP)..........................................................................6
• ICP
Chart
Link
Analysis
–
Geography
...............................................................................
11
• Link
Chart
(Figure
3)
Intelligence
Preparation
of
the
Battlefield
(IPB)..................................................12
• Figure
(4)
Albanian
Uniformed
Personnel
in
Peacekeeping
Missions
• Figure
(5
&
6)
IPB
Imagery
Analysis
of
Competing
Hypothesis
(ACH).............................................................17
• Figure
(7)
Trade
Balance
Graphic
• Figure
(8)
ACH
Hypotheses
Inconsistencies
Contact
Page
.........................................................................................................
22
Cover
graphic
source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Albania

3. 3
Albania
Security
Study
Executive
Summary:
It
is
likely
Albania
will
continue
to
increase
its
stability
in
the
next
12
to
24
months.
European
Union
accession
(2009)
and
candidacy
(2014)
continue
to
be
stabilizing
factors
that
are
affecting
the
country
in
positive
ways.
Political
elections
(2013)
have
swept
back
into
power
the
Socialist
party
and
their
political
will
and
efforts
to
reform
all
levels
of
government,
economy
and
the
environment
are
slow,
but
steadily
improving.
Albania’s
recognition
of
Kosovo’s
independence
and
statehood
causes
strained
relations
with
Serbia
creating
tension
in
the
Balkan
region,
but
recent
events
are
showing
signs
of
change.
Challenges
limiting
the
country’s
economic
growth
and
foreign
investment
are
a
poor
internal
infrastructure.
Poised
for
progress,
Albania
needs
to
minimize
negative
factors
that
hinder
EU
progression;
with
the
two
biggest
being
corruption
and
organized
crime.
Discussion:
Albanian
NATO
membership
granted
in
2009
will
strengthen
NATO’s
security
presence
and
be
a
stabilizing
force
in
an
unstable
region.
NATO
ascension
is
a
sign
of
confidence
in
Albania’s
political
stability
and
popular
opinion
toward
U.S.
and
European
institutions.
NATO
ascension
is
widely
seen
as
a
milestone
on
the
road
to
European
Union
(EU)
membership
–
the
most
important
step
a
country
can
take
toward
inclusion
in
the
family
of
Europe’s
stable,
liberal
democracies.
Albania
has
made
positive
political
and
economic
progress
in
recent
years,
but
is
at
least
10
years
away
from
full
EU
accession.1
Politically,
Albania
has
made
progress
over
the
past
year.
Despite
a
tense
political
climate
to
the
general
elections
in
2013,
Albania
continued
its
efforts
on
reforms
in
all
areas
under
the
key
priorities.
The
function
of
Parliament
improved.
Transparency
of
the
legislative
process
and
involvement
of
civil
society
and
interest
groups
increased.
Government
continued
to
reiterate
its
commitment
to
EU
integration.
2
Albania
took
further
steps
towards
the
reform
of
the
judiciary.
The
government
has
shown
political
will
to
act
decisively
in
the
prevention
and
fight
against
corruption.
They
strengthened
the
legislative
framework,
which
improved
policy
coordination
at
a
central
level.
Figure
1:
Map
of
Albania

4. 4
Relationships
in
the
Balkan
region
are
mending.
Prime
Ministers
of
Albania,
Serbia
and
Kosovo
met
for
the
first
time
in
68
years
marking
a
desire
to
work
together
to
improve
ties
to
advance
in
their
bids
to
the
EU.3
Albania
and
Serbia
demonstrated
their
willingness
to
improve
bilateral
relations
by
taking
steps
towards
improving
the
rights
of
their
respective
national
minorities.
The
establishment
of
a
regular
air
link
between
Belgrade
and
Tirana
began
in
September.
Albania
and
Kosovo
signed
a
new
declaration
on
cooperation
and
strategic
partnership
aiming
to
boost
economic
growth.
Overall,
Albania
has
continued
to
act
as
a
constructive
partner
in
the
region,
further
developing
bilateral
relations
with
other
enlargement
countries
and
neighboring
EU
Member
States.
4
Minimizing
risks
with
corruption
and
organized
crime
are
critical.
Albania
has
managed
to
establish
a
strong
legal
base,
which
as
recognized
The
Albanian
Criminal
Code
covers
all
types
of
corrupt
behavior
(promising,
offering
or
giving
and
requesting,
receiving
or
accepting)
and
after
the
amendments
made
in
2004,
which
established
a
completely
new
system
of
corruption
offences,
meets
the
international
standards.5
Awareness
of
corruption
has
increased
and
businesses
rank
corruption
the
second
highest
issue,
after
high
taxes.
The
fight
against
organized
crime
shows
a
positive
trend
in
a
number
of
areas,
with
an
intensification
of
law
enforcement
activities,
notably
on
drug
seizures
and
drug-­‐related
crimes,
and
on
economic
crime
and
trafficking
of
human
beings.
6
Comments:
This
report
has
been
created
from
large
amounts
of
open
resources
used
in
this
Executive
summary
and
country
stability
study
including
economic,
political,
military,
technology,
and
social
websites,
on-­‐line
news
sources,
in-­‐country
blogs,
web-­‐based
and
local
newspaper
articles,
journals,
scholarly
databases,
government
websites,
and
research
centers.
Analyst
expertise
was
low
and
worked
alone;
however,
the
analyst
consulted
numerous
OSINT
sources;
used
several
structured
analytic
techniques,
including
ACH;
received
feedback
on
initial
drafts;
and
had
sufficient
time
to
complete
the
task.
This
estimate
product
attempts
to
convey
the
stability
of
the
Albanian
government
in
many
areas.
Despite
the
numerous
sources
with
high
reliability
and
confidence,
this
estimate
is
not
a
complete
analysis
of
every
stabilizing
or
destabilizing
factor
for
the
nation.
Source
Reliability:
9/10
Analytic
Confidence:
8/10
Figure
2:
Prevalence
of
Bribery

5. 5
1
http://www.cepa.org/content/issue-­‐brief-­‐no-­‐102-­‐albanias-­‐nato-­‐membership
2
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2013/package/brochures/albania_2013.pdf
3
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/us-­‐serbia-­‐albania-­‐kosovo-­‐idUSKCN0IU16W20141110
4
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/20141008-­‐albania-­‐progress-­‐report_en.pdf
5
http://www.againstcorruption.eu/uploads/norad/Albania.pdf
6
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/20141008-­‐albania-­‐progress-­‐report_en.pdf
Graphic
source:
http://albaniantourism.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/how_to_get_to_albania.gif?w=269

6. 6
Intelligence
Collection
Plan
(ICP)
Plan
-­‐
Albania
ID
Source
Name
Type
of
Source
Intel
Type
Periodicity
Purpose
Report
w/in
Last
5
Years
Utility
Title
Source
Rel.
1
Official
Journal
of
the
European
Union
Publication
OSINT
Frequent
Economic
Yes
Useful
Legislation
that
covers
organizations
and
project
that
receive
public
money
8
2
The
New
York
Times
Online
News
Source
OSINT
Daily
Economics
Yes
Useful
Daily
current
worldly
events
8
3
The
Library
of
Congress
Educational
Institution
OSINT
As
needed
Economics
Yes
Highly
Useful
Database
with
resources
on
culture,
re:
Albania
9
4
The
Economist-­‐
Intelligence
Unit
Online
News
Source
OSINT
As
needed
Economics
Yes
Useful
Albanian
index
featuring
the
latest
news
updates.
Focus
on
politics
and
world
affairs
8
5
Trading
Economics
Online
News
Source
OSINT
As
needed
Economics
Yes
Useful
Albanian
statistics,
economics,
historical
charts
7
6
The
Balkan
Insight
Local
newspaper/
source
OSINT
Daily
Economics
Yes
Useful
Breaking
news
on
the
Balkan
economy,
politics,
business,
culture,
art
&
entertainment
7
7
The
World
Bank
Research
Center
OSINT
Frequent
Economics
Yes
Useful
Country
data
on
economics,
government
of
Albania
9
8
Google
Earth
Other
IMINT
As
needed
Geography
Yes
Useful
Satellite
imagery,
geographic
profile
of
Albania
8
9
CIA
World
Fact
book
Gov't
Website
IMINT
Frequent
Geography
Yes
Highly
Useful
CIA
Facts
on
Albania
9
10
National
Geospatial
Intelligence
Agency
Gov't
Website
IMINT
As
needed
Geography
Yes
Highly
Useful
Geographical
database
of
downloadable
country
files
featuring
all
aspects
of
topography
10
11
The
University
of
Texas-­‐
Austin
Educational
Institution
IMINT
As
needed
Geography
Yes
Useful
CIA
-­‐
produced
maps
of
Albania
8

7. 7
ID
Source
Name
Type
of
Source
Intel
Type
Periodicity
Purpose
Report
w/in
Last
5
Years
Utility
Title
Source
Rel.
12
Interpol
Non-­‐gov't
org
OSINT
Daily
Military
Yes
Highly
Useful
Interpol
-­‐
Albania's
membership
page,
includes
a
running
blog
of
the
latest
stories,
focused
on
crime,
military,
terrorism,
other
security
matters
10
13
Jane's
Intelligence
Online
News
Source
OSINT
Frequent
Military
Yes
Highly
Useful
Economic,
Political,
Military
issues
10
14
Stratfor
Global
Intelligence
Private
Global
Intelligence
service
OSINT
As
needed
Military
Yes
Useful
Issues
that
affect
Albania
9
15
Ebsco
Host
of
Mercyhurst
Library
Educational
Institution
OSINT
Frequent
Military
Yes
Highly
Useful
The
Military
and
its
Role
in
Albania's
Democratization.
10
16
European
Union
Gov't
Website
OSINT
Frequent
Political
Yes
Highly
Useful
Europa
is
the
official
EU
website.
Provides
info.
On
EU
institutions,
agencies
and
bodies.
9
17
Center
for
Strategic
&
International
Studies
Research
Center
OSINT
As
needed
Politics
Yes
Useful
Albanian
program
page
focusing
on
political,
economic,
security
and
world
affairs
10
18
Balkanalysis
Indep
News
&
Analysis
OSINT
Daily
Politics
Yes
Useful
Produces
local
country
briefings,
articles,
interviews
9
19
Rand
Research
Center
OSINT
Frequent
Politics
Yes
Highly
Useful
Politics,
social,
technology,
military,
international
relations,
economics,
science,
geography
10
20
U.S.
Department
of
State
Gov't
Website
OSINT
Frequent
Politics
Yes
Highly
Useful
Albanian
-­‐
home
page
10
21
Reuters
-­‐
Albania
Online
News
Source
OSINT
As
needed
Politics
Yes
Useful
Albanian
resource
page
10
22
US
Embassy
-­‐
Albania
Gov't
Website
OSINT
Frequent
Politics
Yes
Highly
Useful
Albanian
-­‐home
page
10

8. 8
ID
Source
Name
Type
of
Source
Intel
Type
Periodicity
Purpose
Report
w/in
Last
5
Years
Utility
Title
Source
Rel.
23
Office
of
Prime
Minister
Gov't
Website
-­‐
Albania
OSINT
Frequent
Politics
Yes
Highly
Useful
Prime
Minister’s
website
of
Albania
9
24
Amnesty
International
Online
News
Source
OSINT
As
needed
Social
Yes
Useful
Updates
on
human
rights
issues
around
the
world
9
25
US
Citizenship
and
Immigration
Services
Gov't
Website
OSINT
As
needed
Social
Yes
Useful
Homeland
Security:
asylum
and
patronization
resources
for
Albanian
citizens
seeking
US
citizenship
10
26
Google
Alerts
Online
News
Source
OSINT
Frequent
Social
Yes
Highly
Useful
Regular,
world-­‐
wide
alerts
on
Albania,
politics,
technology,
international
relations,
economy
9
27
The
Guardian
Newspaper
-­‐
online
source
OSINT
Frequent
Social
Yes
Highly
Useful
Albanian
Bureau
-­‐
Government,
political,
social,
military
and
international
relations
8
28
Albanian
Blogger
Blog
Post
OSINT
As
needed
Social
Yes
Useful
General
information
on
regional
social,
cultural
issues
pertaining
to
Albania
8
29
Global
Security.org
Online
News
Source
OSINT
Frequent
Technology
Yes
Highly
Useful
Fact-­‐based
database
of
sources
focusing
on
world
security
issues/reliable
news
&
security
information
10
30
European
Stability
Initiative
Think
Tank
OSINT
Frequent
Technology
Yes
Highly
Useful
A
non-­‐profit
research
and
policy
institute
for
South
east
Europe;
Balkans
9
31
Agency
for
Technology
and
Innovation
(ARTI)
Gov't
Website
-­‐
Albania
OSINT
Frequent
Technology
Yes
Highly
Useful
Albanian
science,
technology
website
9
32
United
States
Agency
for
International
Development
Gov't
Website
OSINT
Frequent
Technology
Yes
Highly
Useful
Government
agency
responsible
for
foreign
aid.
Bilateral
relations,
Socioeconomic
development
9

9. 9
Link
Analysis
-­‐
Geography
Executive
Summary:
It
is
likely
that
Albania
will
remain
stable
in
the
next
24
months.
Albania’s
geography
plays
a
vital
role
it
its
overall
national
stability.
A
vast
mix
of
rich
minerals,
natural
resources
and
coastal
access
to
international
commerce
gives
promise,
yet
its
lack
of
infrastructure
to
preserve
and
protect
these
resources
are
compromising
national
assets.
Without
national
reforms
and
initiatives
to
mitigate
natural
and
man-­‐made
hazards,
risks
of
degradation
to
the
environment
remain.
The
Strait
of
Otranto
is
a
key
point
linking
the
Adriatic
and
Ionian
seas,
with
a
route
for
tourism
and
commerce.
Chances
are
about
even
that
the
strategic
location
of
Albania
and
the
Strait
of
Otranto
could
create
a
destabilizing
gateway
of
organized
crime
and
drug
trafficking
from
Italy,
Turkey
into
southern
Europe.
Discussion:
Development
of
strategies
and
policy’s
are
making
an
impact
on
natural
resources
and
reduction
of
man-­‐made
hazards.
Degradation
caused
by
land
reclamation,
mining
and
industrial
pollution
resources
during
the
country’s
post-­‐communist
transition
era
resulted
in
considerable
damage
to
forests
and
pastures.
High
rates
of
reforestation
were
due
to
illegal
logging,
increased
use
of
forests
for
fuel-­‐wood,
uncontrolled
harvesting
and
overgrazing
of
forests
and
pastures,
and
poor
forest
management.1
Reforms
and
improvement
have
resulted
in
forestry,
watershed,
and
agriculture
and
carbon
sequestration
measures
in
degraded
lands
through
protection
measures.
Sustainable,
community
based
natural
resource
management
will
lead
to
higher
productivity,
incomes
and
improvements
in
land
and
water
resources
for
the
public
sector.
2
The
World
Bank
is
supporting
forest
and
pasture
management
planning
and
investment
in
240
Local
Government
Units
(LGUs)
through
the
National
Resource
Development
Project
(NRDP)
to
restore
the
forests
and
land
of
Albania.3
Air
pollution,
municipal
solid
waste
management
and
access
to
clean
water
and
improved
sanitation
remain
the
most
pressing
challenges
for
Albania
according
to
the
second
Environmental
Performance
Review
of
Albania,
performed
by
the
United
Nations
Economic
Commission
for
Europe
(UNECE).
4
Environmental
and
Coastal
development
are
important
aspects
to
tourism.
Albania
is
participating
in
the
Program
of
Work
on
Protected
Areas
(POWPA)
and
Coastal
Zone
Management,
including
a
comprehensive
ecological
gap
assessment
for
the
protected
area
system
and
fostering
a
constructive
policy
environment
to
help
preserve
marine
protected
areas.5
Tourism
in
Albania
has
a
relatively
high
potential.6
Development
and
pressure
from
tourism
will
grow
(generated
by
domestic,
as
well
as
by
international
investors)
it
is
important

10. 10
that
both
local
and
national
authorities
make
efforts
to
safeguard
the
environmental
potential
of
the
coastal
area
to
secure
the
environmental
sound
development
of
tourism
and
so
guarantee
long-­‐term
sustainable
and
the
socio-­‐economic
security
of
the
coastal
population.
The
Balkan
Route
is
a
corridor
for
drug
trafficking.
Even
though
the
quantity
of
drugs
has
come
down
in
recent
years,
the
Balkan
route,
through
Albania
is
still
one
of
the
world’s
main,
important
routes
for
smuggling
drugs,
especially
heroin
from
Afghanistan.
Large
single
seizures
of
heroin
upstream
and
in
destination
markets
suggest
that
while
large
shipments
are
moving
through
South-­‐Eastern
Europe,
there
appears
to
be
less
such
actionable
information
in
the
region
itself.
This
is
an
area
of
vulnerability
in
the
context
of
disappearing
internal
borders
resulting
from
European
Union
(EU)
accession
and
accelerating
regional
integration.
7
Cocaine
constitutes
a
small
percentage
of
drugs
trafficked
through
Albania
and
entering
the
country
by
land,
seaports
and
airport.
Cannabis
grows
easily
in
Albania
in
many
areas,
especially
Fier,
Vlora,
and
Shkodra
Tropoja.
8
Comments:
Analyst’s
expertise
was
low;
the
complexity
of
the
subject
matter
is
high
and
the
analyst
worked
alone.
Sources
collected
came
from
a
variety
of
open
academic
and
news
sources,
including
government
websites,
online
databases,
newspaper
articles,
Google
Earth
and
institutional
websites.
Source
Reliability:
8/10
Analytic
Confidence:
8/10
1
http://www.thegef.org/gef/content/natural-­‐resources-­‐development-­‐albania-­‐supporting-­‐participatory-­‐forest-­‐
management
2
http://www.un-­‐foodsecurity.org/node/638
3
http://www.un-­‐foodsecurity.org/node/638
4
http://bit.ly/1tblPrF
5
http://www.thegef.org/gef/node/3281
6
http://pastandpresent.al/en/coast
7
http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-­‐and-­‐analysis/Studies/Illicit_DT_through_SEE_REPORT_2014_web.pdf
8
http://www.academia.edu/5082774/DRUG_PRODUCTION_AND_TRAFFICKING_IN_ALBANIA

11. 11
Link
Analysis
Chart:
Albania
Geography
Figure
3:
Link
Analysis
Chart
of
Albania

12. 12
Intelligence
Preparation
of
the
Battlefield
(IPB)
Analysis
&
Terrain
Executive
Summary:
Joining
the
North
Atlantic
Treaty
Organization
(NATO)
in
2009,
Albania
is
highly
likely
to
be
stable
in
24
months.
Albania’s
military
doctrine
is
integrating
towards
the
NATO
model
and
regional
cooperation
among
neighboring
Balkan
countries.
The
restructured
military
forces
are
focused
on
limited
joint
operations,
humanitarian
aid,
rapid
relief
due
to
natural
disasters
and
responsiveness
to
civil
emergencies.
Attack
from
an
enemy
would
be
unlikely
with
war
risks
low,
mitigated
by
NATO
membership,
future
prospects
of
joining
the
European
Union
(EU)
and
an
alliance
with
the
United
States.
Analysis
of
the
terrain
reveals
several
No-­‐Go
areas
along
the
north,
east
and
southern
borders
due
to
dense
forest;
lakes,
rivers,
and
rugged
mountainous
ranges
are
significant
obstacles
to
navigate
operations
for
order
of
battle.
The
western
coastline
through
the
Strait
of
Otranto
provides
porous
avenues
of
approach
across
mostly
flat
marshy
plains.
Discussion:
NATO
membership
provides
long-­‐term
stability
towards
future
European
Union
(EU)
accession.
Albania’s
membership
in
NATO
promises
that
the
country
will
remain
politically
strong
and
secure
from
external
attack
and
cements
its
efforts
to
attain
prosperity
in
the
end.
1
Since
Albania
joined
NATO,
its
focus
has
been
on
developing
military
capabilities
and
institutional
structures
that
would
enable
its
participation
in
NATO-­‐led
military
operations.
This
step
of
Albania’s
integration
into
Euro-­‐Atlantic
structures
constitutes
one
of
the
most
important
current
national
priorities
for
the
country.2
Military
forces
operate
with
a
new
NATO
western-­‐style
structure.
With
bilateral
and
multilateral
assistance,
the
armed
forces
are
transitioning
to
a
smaller,
voluntary,
professional
military.3
Albania
worked
with
the
international
community
to
restructure
its
armed
forces
and
strengthen
democratic
structures,
including
addressing
military
reforms,
in
its
pursuit
of
NATO
membership.
Albania
currently
has
8,500
active
defense
personnel,
including
civilians,
from
which
only
2,500
are
ready
for
combat,
while
the
other
two
thirds
are
executive
and
supporting
staff.
Albania
spends
less
than
1.5%
of
its
GDP
on
the
defense
budget.
4
A
collective,
regional,
western
Balkans
approach
aims
to
strengthen
its
defense
reforms,
strengthen
military
to
military
cooperation,
and
operations.
Albania
currently
holds
the
presidency
of
The
“Adriatic
Chart”
(A5)
Euro-­‐Atlantic
integration
of
the
region.
This
initiative
is
military
cooperation
between
the
countries,
focused
on
exercises,
joint
training
operations,
and
increasing
of
the
capacity
for
airspace.
The
Ministry
of
Defense
for
Albania
stressed
that

13. 13
regional
cooperation
should
focus
on
the
concept
of
“Smart
Defense”
and
use
of
joint
defense
assets
in
cases
of
emergencies.
5
Figure
4:
Albanian
Uniformed
Personnel
in
Peacekeeping
Operations
Albania’s
contribution
to
peacekeeping
is
through
NATO,
the
EU,
and
the
UN,
as
well
as
joint
coalitions
with
strategic
partners.
Albania’s
participation
to
United
Nations
(UN)
peacekeeping
is
a
lower
priority,
and
not
Albania’s
immediate
security
and
foreign
policy
interest.
6
External
threat
to
national
security
is
low.
Albania’s
commitment
to
uphold
NATO’s
military
standards
is
strong.
In
the
event
of
attack,
no
Albanian
defensive
combat
forces
exist,
but
NATO
having
responsibility
for
security,
supports
Albanian
air
space.
No
military
reserves
exist.
Internal
security
provides
border
protection,
law
and
maritime
counter-­‐smuggling
operations.
7
Albania’s
geography
provides
natural
defensive
borders.
Three
sets
of
mountain
ranges
(Pindus,
Korab,
Northern
Alps),
bordering
three
countries,
Greece,
Kosovo
and
Montenegro,
give
a
defensive
border
insulating
Albania
from
attack.
8
Comments:
Sources
consulted
are
highly
reliable.
The
analysis
and
analytical
confidence
of
the
IPB
are
8/10.
The
sources
used
were
OSINT,
but
also
came
from
Jane’s
Intelligence,
the
Central
Intelligence
Agency
(CIA),
Google
Earth,
and
organizational
websites
focusing
on
military
capabilities
of
foreign
nations
including
Albania.
Source
Reliability:
9/10
Analytic
Confidence:
8/10

14. 14
1
http://www.ukessays.com/essays/politics/integration-­‐of-­‐nato-­‐has-­‐affected-­‐albanian-­‐economy-­‐politics-­‐essay.php
-­‐
ixzz3JMdW0dsL
2
http://www.providingforpeacekeeping.org/wp-­‐content/uploads/2014/06/Albania-­‐Visoka-­‐12-­‐June-­‐2014-­‐
FINAL.pdf
3
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/al-­‐budget.htm
4
http://www.providingforpeacekeeping.org/wp-­‐content/uploads/2014/06/Albania-­‐Visoka-­‐12-­‐June-­‐2014-­‐
FINAL.pdf
5
http://www.mod.gov.al/eng/index.php/newsroom/122-­‐defence-­‐minister-­‐kodheli-­‐chairs-­‐us-­‐adriatic-­‐charter-­‐a5-­‐
ministerial-­‐in-­‐brussels
6
http://www.providingforpeacekeeping.org/wp-­‐content/uploads/2014/06/Albania-­‐Visoka-­‐12-­‐June-­‐2014-­‐
FINAL.pdf
7
http://www.janes.com
8
http://www.jstor.org/stable/207419?seq=4

15. 15
Intelligence
Preparation
of
the
Battlefield
(IPB)
Albanian
Military
Locations
Figure
5:
Military
Locations

16. 16
Intelligence
Preparation
of
the
Battlefield
(IPB)
Military
Avenues
of
Approach
to
Albania
Figure
6:
Military
Avenues
of
Approach

17. 17
Analysis
of
Competing
Hypothesis
(ACH)
Matrix
Executive
Summary:
It
is
probable
Albania
will
continue
to
be
stable
in
the
next
24
months.
With
accession
into
the
European
Union
in
2009,
major
government
reformations
are
having
effects
on
economic
factors,
politics,
military,
technology,
geography
and
environmental
sectors.
Without
these
directional
changes,
Albania’s
environmental
hazards
and
natural
disasters
pose
significant
risk
to
its
natural
resources,
making
up
half
its
Gross
Domestic
product
(GDP).
Key
internal
threats
to
security
remain
because
of
corruption,
organized
crime,
transnational
drugs,
trafficking,
and
weapons
smuggling.
Despite
these
issues,
the
country’s
overall
outlook
is
positive.
Discussion:
Albania
is
making
positive,
developmental
steps
towards
changing
its
governance.
Albania’s
foreign
trade
is
liberal
and
opened
its
markets
to
global
and
foreign
investment.
Reforms
in
public
administration
advanced,
with
the
Civil
Service
Law
coming
into
effect.
Strengthening
the
legislative
framework
and
policy
coordination
improved
monitoring
at
the
central
level.1
Albania
joined
the
Word
Trade
Organization
(WTO)
in
2000.
Since
then,
the
Albanian
economic
growth
has
been
one
of
the
highest
among
the
countries
of
the
region
coupled
with
a
low
inflation
rate.
GPD
has
grown
by
an
average
of
6%
per
year.
In
2013,
Albania
exported
about
246
billion
ALL
of
goods,
with
an
increase
of
15%
from
previous
year.
Even
though
exports
have
increased,
the
trade
deficit
has
been
deepening.2
Figure
7:
Trade
Balance
1993-­‐2013
Albania
is
a
disaster
prone
country
and
exposed
to
natural
and
man-­‐made
origins.
Natural
risks
include
geologic
(earthquakes,
rock
falls
and
landslides);
hydro-­‐meteorological
(flooding

18. 18
and
torrential
rains,
droughts,
snowstorms,
high
snowfall
and
windstorms);
biophysical
(forest
fires
and
epidemics);
and
avalanches.
Albania
ranks
41st
in
the
world
in
terms
of
vulnerability
to
landslides,
43rd
in
terms
of
earthquakes
and
58th
in
terms
of
drought
risks.
The
cost
of
damages
has
a
negative
impact
on
the
macroeconomic
situation
of
the
country.3
Albania
has
environmental
problems
that
include
the
deterioration
of
bio-­‐diversity
(deforestation
and
loss
of
flora
and
fauna);
soil
erosion;
specific
sectorial
problems
(water,
air
and
land
pollution);
and
the
continued
existence
of
high-­‐risk
areas
(hot
spots)
with
respect
to
environmental
pollution.
4
Progress
in
Anti-­‐corruption
policies
and
fight
against
organized
crime
are
developing.
The
Albanian
authorities
have
strengthened
the
legal
and
institutional
anti-­‐corruption
framework.
An
appointment
of
a
National
Anti-­‐Corruption
Coordinator
and
a
network
of
anti-­‐corruption
focal
points
in
all
line
ministries
were
established.
The
introduction
of
key
legislation
for
State
Police
and
Prosecution
office
covering
training
and
the
control
of
firearms
is
waiting
for
adoption.
Police
have
conducted
successful
operations
against
narcotics,
human
trafficking,
money
laundering
and
seizures
of
explosives.
5
The
PARC
ACH
software
is
an
analyst
tool
used
to
demonstrate
evidence
of
two
competing
hypothesis
as
“Consistent”
or
“Inconsistent”
with
the
likelihood
of
Albania’s
stability
in
the
next
12
to
24
months.
The
graph
below
(Figure
8)
depicts
my
ACH
analysis,
that
Albania
would
be
highly
likely
to
remain
stable
based
on
the
level
of
inconsistency
than
the
opposing
hypothesis.
Comments:
The
analyst
utilized
the
ACH
tool,
which
does
not
produce
analytic
certainty,
but
does
create
a
statistical
measurement
that
helps
the
analysis
process
from
human
bias
and
mindset.
Analyst
expertise
was
low
and
OSINT
was
used;
along
with
many
sources
to
compile
the
evidence
in
the
ACH
matrices
including
newspaper
articles,
CIA
World
FactBook,
Jane’s
Intelligence,
journal
articles,
government
websites,
academic,
organizational,
corporate
and
economic
websites.
Source
Reliability:
8/10
Analytic
Confidence:
8/10
Figure
8:
Inconsistencies
of
Hypotheses

19. 19
1
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/20141008-­‐albania-­‐progress-­‐report_en.pdf
2
http://www.academia.edu/8486551/International_Trade_of_Albania._Gravity_model
3
http://www.gripweb.org/gripweb/sites/default/files/Albania%20DRR%20Cap%20Ass%20Report%20Hachim%20Fi
nal.pdf
4
http://www.gripweb.org/gripweb/sites/default/files/Albania%20DRR%20Cap%20Ass%20Report%20Hachim%20Fi
nal.pdf
5
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/al_report_june_2014.pdf
Graphic
Source:
http://www.academia.edu/8486551/International_Trade_of_Albania._Gravity_model

20. 20
Analysis
of
Competing
Hypothesis
(ACH)
Matrix
–
Albania
Figure
(9)

21. 21

22. 22
Contact
Information
Stephanie
Morrison
sbmorrison@austin.rr.com