Airlines for America releases its annual Winter Holiday Air Travel Forecast projecting that 44.3 million travelers will fly during the 21-day period from December 16, 2013-January 5, 2014. This is a two percent increase from 2013, or roughly 41,000 passengers daily. In addition, U.S. airlines' improving financials are enabling significant reinvestment in the travel experience for the flying public.
For the annual CAPA Business Briefing, OAG's Executive VP John Grant analyses the changes in global capacity, the North American market and how The Big Three can have a major influence in the market.
Airlines for America releases its annual Winter Holiday Air Travel Forecast projecting that 44.3 million travelers will fly during the 21-day period from December 16, 2013-January 5, 2014. This is a two percent increase from 2013, or roughly 41,000 passengers daily. In addition, U.S. airlines' improving financials are enabling significant reinvestment in the travel experience for the flying public.
For the annual CAPA Business Briefing, OAG's Executive VP John Grant analyses the changes in global capacity, the North American market and how The Big Three can have a major influence in the market.
January 25-26, 2017
Cancun, Mexico
ICF delivered a presentation at the MRO Latin America Conference in Cancun, Mexico.
The presentation provides a forecast for the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) industry and highlights trends in aircraft operations.
Center for Automotive Research | LEAP Board Speaker SeriesKatlyn Lindstrom
On April 2, The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) spoke with our board of directors about the state of the Michigan, U.S. and world auto industries, and what we can expect for 2019.
Latin American MRO Market Update & Industry Trends ICF
At the 2016 ALTA CCMA & Aircraft MRO Conference on May 15-18 in Puerto Rico, ICF's Jonathan Berger presented "MRO Market Update & Industry Trends." Download his presentation to learn how forward-looking airline and MRO leadership is gaining a competitive edge in Latin America.
For more info: http://bit.ly/1UaAtgf
ICF International's Jonathan Berger delivered a presentation at the Transportation Research Board meeting January 15, 2014 in Washington D.C. The presentation provides a forecast for the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) industry and highlights trends in aircraft, operations.
To learn more, visit: http://www.icfi.com/markets/aviation/maintenance-repair-and-overhaul
Originally presented at Aviation Week's MRO Latin America Conference in Lima, Peru, ICF’s Jonathan Berger provides an overview of the current aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market—both globally and in Latin America—the current trends and dynamics in the industry, and a forecast for the near and long term.
For more information, please visit: http://www.icfi.com/markets/aviation/maintenance-repair-and-overhaul
At the 2016 Aviation Week MRO Europe conference on October 18-20 in Amsterdam, Netherlands, ICF's Jonathan Berger presented "MRO Market Update & Industry Trends." Download his presentation to learn about the MRO forecast and aircraft technology trends in Europe.
For more information, click here: http://bit.ly/2dPaEtb
Unique to the aviation industry, aviation expert, Stuart Rubin, discusses the ICF Residual Value Model and how it compares to current methodologies in the industry.
This presentation was originally shared at the Air Transportation Research International Forum (ATRIF) on October 21, 2015.
To learn more, visit: http://www.icfi.com/markets/aviation
Airline Mergers, Competition and Impact: 2005-2013Joshua Marks
A comprehensive review of the U.S. aviation industry market and seat share in 2013, merger and consolidation history from 2005 to 2013, and competitive dynamics in the post-consolidation airline market. Specific focus on the US Airways - America West deal, followed by Delta-Northwest, United-Continental, Southwest-AirTran and US Airways-American. The presentation captures the highest revenue O&D routes for each consolidated airline as well as the impact of shifting alliance shares in the U.S. and intercontinental markets. As presented to
World: Ships, Vessels, Ferry-Boats For The Transport Of Persons - Market Repo...IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox has just published its report: "World: Ships, Vessels, Ferry-Boats For The Transport Of Persons - Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020". This report has been designed to provide a detailed analysis of the global ship market. It covers the most recent data sets of quantitative medium-term projections, as well as developments in production, trade, consumption and prices. The report also includes a comparative analysis of the leading consuming countries, revealing opportunities opened for producers and exporters across the globe. The forecast outlines market prospects to 2020.
Dominican Republic: Passenger Trends, Airports and Airlines vaughn cordle
Passenger trends for the top 7 airports. Information includes airline and airport market share from the late 90s, in addition to country GDP growth rates and estimates
ICF MRO Market Forecast & Trends – Asia Pacific March 9-10, 2016 Airline E&M:...ICF
ICF International's Jonathan Berger delivered a presentation at the Airline E&M: China & East Asia conference in Hong Kong, China on March 9-10, 2016. The presentation provides a forecast for the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) industry and highlights trends in aircraft, operations. See appendix for acronyms.
For more information: http://bit.ly/1Y42p8U
Over the past few years, the Asia Pacific aerospace industry has been accelerating forward. Aircraft OEM production backlog is at historical record levels and demonstrates strong industry confidence looking forward. The Asian fleet will see robust growth over the next decade and the second fastest growth globally. Learn more on this future growth in this ICF presentation, originally shared during a US Commercial Service webinar.
For more information, visit: http://www.icfi.com/markets/aviation/aerospace
January 25-26, 2017
Cancun, Mexico
ICF delivered a presentation at the MRO Latin America Conference in Cancun, Mexico.
The presentation provides a forecast for the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) industry and highlights trends in aircraft operations.
Center for Automotive Research | LEAP Board Speaker SeriesKatlyn Lindstrom
On April 2, The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) spoke with our board of directors about the state of the Michigan, U.S. and world auto industries, and what we can expect for 2019.
Latin American MRO Market Update & Industry Trends ICF
At the 2016 ALTA CCMA & Aircraft MRO Conference on May 15-18 in Puerto Rico, ICF's Jonathan Berger presented "MRO Market Update & Industry Trends." Download his presentation to learn how forward-looking airline and MRO leadership is gaining a competitive edge in Latin America.
For more info: http://bit.ly/1UaAtgf
ICF International's Jonathan Berger delivered a presentation at the Transportation Research Board meeting January 15, 2014 in Washington D.C. The presentation provides a forecast for the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) industry and highlights trends in aircraft, operations.
To learn more, visit: http://www.icfi.com/markets/aviation/maintenance-repair-and-overhaul
Originally presented at Aviation Week's MRO Latin America Conference in Lima, Peru, ICF’s Jonathan Berger provides an overview of the current aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market—both globally and in Latin America—the current trends and dynamics in the industry, and a forecast for the near and long term.
For more information, please visit: http://www.icfi.com/markets/aviation/maintenance-repair-and-overhaul
At the 2016 Aviation Week MRO Europe conference on October 18-20 in Amsterdam, Netherlands, ICF's Jonathan Berger presented "MRO Market Update & Industry Trends." Download his presentation to learn about the MRO forecast and aircraft technology trends in Europe.
For more information, click here: http://bit.ly/2dPaEtb
Unique to the aviation industry, aviation expert, Stuart Rubin, discusses the ICF Residual Value Model and how it compares to current methodologies in the industry.
This presentation was originally shared at the Air Transportation Research International Forum (ATRIF) on October 21, 2015.
To learn more, visit: http://www.icfi.com/markets/aviation
Airline Mergers, Competition and Impact: 2005-2013Joshua Marks
A comprehensive review of the U.S. aviation industry market and seat share in 2013, merger and consolidation history from 2005 to 2013, and competitive dynamics in the post-consolidation airline market. Specific focus on the US Airways - America West deal, followed by Delta-Northwest, United-Continental, Southwest-AirTran and US Airways-American. The presentation captures the highest revenue O&D routes for each consolidated airline as well as the impact of shifting alliance shares in the U.S. and intercontinental markets. As presented to
World: Ships, Vessels, Ferry-Boats For The Transport Of Persons - Market Repo...IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox has just published its report: "World: Ships, Vessels, Ferry-Boats For The Transport Of Persons - Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020". This report has been designed to provide a detailed analysis of the global ship market. It covers the most recent data sets of quantitative medium-term projections, as well as developments in production, trade, consumption and prices. The report also includes a comparative analysis of the leading consuming countries, revealing opportunities opened for producers and exporters across the globe. The forecast outlines market prospects to 2020.
Dominican Republic: Passenger Trends, Airports and Airlines vaughn cordle
Passenger trends for the top 7 airports. Information includes airline and airport market share from the late 90s, in addition to country GDP growth rates and estimates
ICF MRO Market Forecast & Trends – Asia Pacific March 9-10, 2016 Airline E&M:...ICF
ICF International's Jonathan Berger delivered a presentation at the Airline E&M: China & East Asia conference in Hong Kong, China on March 9-10, 2016. The presentation provides a forecast for the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) industry and highlights trends in aircraft, operations. See appendix for acronyms.
For more information: http://bit.ly/1Y42p8U
Over the past few years, the Asia Pacific aerospace industry has been accelerating forward. Aircraft OEM production backlog is at historical record levels and demonstrates strong industry confidence looking forward. The Asian fleet will see robust growth over the next decade and the second fastest growth globally. Learn more on this future growth in this ICF presentation, originally shared during a US Commercial Service webinar.
For more information, visit: http://www.icfi.com/markets/aviation/aerospace
A database management project conducted by NYU students. Using crosstab analysis and other data analytic tools to categorize current customers of Emirates into different value groups and create customized marketing strategy to address each of the segmentation.
Monthly Performance Report February 2012Joshua Marks
masFlight is the leading analytics platform for aviation, combining global flight information with weather, airport, fleet and economic data. masFlight combines powerful cloud databases, an easy-to-use web application, and hosted business intelligence solutions to give airlines, airports and travel industry companies unprecedented visibility into flight and ground operations, market opportunities, and cost efficiencies. For more information on masFlight, please visit www.masflight.com.
Monthly Performance Report January 2012Joshua Marks
masFlight is the leading analytics platform for aviation, combining global flight information with weather, airport, fleet and economic data. masFlight combines powerful cloud databases, an easy-to-use web application, and hosted business intelligence solutions to give airlines, airports and travel industry companies unprecedented visibility into flight and ground operations, market opportunities, and cost efficiencies. For more information on masFlight, please visit www.masflight.com.
This October marks the 35th anniversary of the deregulation of the U.S. airline industry. Because of deregulation, U.S. airlines have been able to offer customers more flights, carry more passengers and cargo, and hire more employees.
#Airlines101 is an educational “live-tweet” on the aviation industry—hear from executives at Airlines for America, its member carriers and other aviation industry experts and join the conversation!
Topics include: Airline Economics and Finance, Revenue Management and Pricing, Customer Experience, Energy and Environment, Airline Operations, The Evolving Role of the Government in the Global Marketplace and The Need for a National Airline Policy that Benefits Airline Customers and the Industry.
2012 Year End Financial and Operational Results Forecast Prep February 21, 20...Airlines for America (A4A)
U.S. airlines delivered one of their best years ever for operational performance, built on their stellar safety record, and achieved a narrow profit despite weathering some of the highest jet fuel prices and steepest tax burdens in history. Much more needs to be done to ensure the U.S. airlines remain profitable, continue to create American jobs, restore and grow air service and remain global competitors. This is where a National Airline Policy comes in. We look forward to working with Congress and the administration on this important initiative.
How To Change Name On Volaris Ticket.pdfnamechange763
How to change name on Volaris ticket? This is one of the most common questions asked by travelers flying with Volaris Airlines. The mentioned details can help you with your name rectification on the airline ticket. If you are still facing difficulties call the consolidation desk at +1-800-865-1848.
TRAVEL TO MT. RWENZORI NATIONAL PARK WITH NILE ABENTEUER SAFARIS.docxnileabenteuersafaris
Let’s explore the captivating Rwenzori Mountains National Park in Uganda with Nile Abenteuer Safaris. This UNESCO World Heritage Site, also known as the “Mountains of the Moon,” offers unparalleled beauty and diverse ecosystems. 🌿🏔️
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Explore the park’s rich biodiversity, which includes montane forests, alpine meadows, and towering cliffs.
Encounter rare and endemic species such as the Rwenzori turaco, Rwenzori red duiker, and Rwenzori three-horned chameleon.
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Embark on immersive trekking experiences along a network of trails. Choose from leisurely walks to multi-day expeditions.
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Engage with local communities of the Bakonjo and Bamba people. Gain insight into their traditional way of life and cultural practices.
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Embark on guided nature walks to spot diverse wildlife, including primates, birds, and endemic plant species.
Keep an eye out for the Rwenzori hyrax, blue monkeys, and various bird species.
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Support conservation efforts by adhering to park regulations and practicing responsible tourism.
Your visit contributes to preserving this pristine wilderness for future generations.
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4 DAYS MASAI MARA WILDEBEEST MIGRATION SAFARI TOUR PACKAGE KENYABush Troop Safari
Join our 4-day Masai Mara Wildebeest Migration Safari in Kenya. Witness the incredible wildebeest migration, enjoy exciting game drives, and stay in comfortable lodges. Get up close and personal with one of nature's most amazing exhibits! Book Your Safari Today at - https://bushtroop-safaris.com/
Discover Palmer, Puerto Rico, through an immersive cultural tour that unveils its rich history and vibrant traditions. Experience lively festivals, savor authentic cuisine, and explore local markets. Visit historical landmarks, museums, and stunning colonial architecture. Engage with friendly locals, enjoy live music, and hike scenic nature trails, all while participating in cultural workshops and discovering unique artisan crafts.
The Cherry Blossom season in Hunza begins in the second week of March and lasts until the end of April, varying with altitude. During this enchanting period, tourists from around the world flock to Hunza Valley to witness its transformation into a vibrant tapestry of white, pink, and green. The valley comes alive with cherry blossoms, creating a picturesque and mesmerizing landscape that captivates visitors.
About the Company:
The Cherry Blossom season in Hunza starts in the second week of March and extends until the end of April, depending on the altitude. During this enchanting period, tourists from around the globe travel to Hunza Valley to witness its transformation into a vibrant tapestry of white, pink, and green. The valley comes alive with cherry blossoms, creating a picturesque and mesmerizing landscape that captivates all who visit. For the best experience, join Hunza Adventure Tours, the top tour company in Pakistan, and immerse yourself in this breathtaking seasonal spectacle.
London Country Tours, the foremost travel partner offers customized Stonehenge tours from London coming with private tour guides and direct access to the inner circles. Visit: https://www.londoncountrytours.co.uk/tour/tours-to-stonehenge-oxford/
Antarctica- Icy wilderness of extremes and wondertahreemzahra82
In this presentation, we delve into the captivating realm of Antarctica, Earth's southernmost continent. This icy wilderness stands as a testament to extremes, with record-breaking cold temperatures and vast expanses of pristine ice. Antarctica's landscape is dominated by towering glaciers, colossal icebergs, and expansive ice shelves. Yet, amidst this frozen expanse, a rich tapestry of unique wildlife thrives, including penguins, seals, and seabirds, all finely attuned to survive in this harsh environment. Beyond its natural wonders, Antarctica also serves as a vital hub for scientific exploration, providing invaluable insights into climate change and the Earth's history
Its running cost is among the diverse vital aspects you must consider before buying an electric scooter. Calculate the cost of getting e-scooter charge for your regular usage to calculate its economic efficiency, similar to people who investigate the mileage of petrol or diesel-driven scooters.
Discover the wonders of the Wenatchee River with a variety of river tours in Monitor, WA. Whether you're seeking thrilling whitewater rafting, peaceful kayaking, family-friendly float trips, or scenic sunset cruises, there's something for everyone. Enjoy fishing, wildlife spotting, bird watching, and more in this beautiful natural setting, perfect for outdoor enthusiasts and families alike.
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Montreal boasts a vibrant artistic heritage, showcased in its top art galleries and museums. From the expansive collections at the Montreal Museum of Fine Arts to the cutting-edge exhibits at the Musée d'art contemporain, discover the city's rich cultural landscape. Experience dynamic street art, indigenous works, and contemporary pieces, reflecting Montreal's diverse and innovative art scene.
During the coldest months, Italy transforms into a winter wonderland, providing visitors with a very unique experience. From the Settimana Bianca ski event to the lively Carnevale celebrations, Italy's winter festivities provide something for everyone. Enjoy hot cocoa, eat hearty comfort foods, and buy during winter deals. Explore the country's rich cultural past by participating in Settimana Bianca, and Carnevale, sipping hot chocolate, shopping during winter deals, and indulging in winter comfort foods. Visit our website https://timeforsicily.com/ for more information.
U.S. Airline Industry Summer Air Travel Forecast and First Quarter 2014 Review
1. John P. Heimlich
Vice President & Chief Economist
A4A Media Briefing
May 15, 2014
U.S. Airline Industry Summer Air Travel Forecast &
First Quarter 2014 Review
2. A4A Projects U.S. Airlines to Carry 1.5% More Travelers This Summer
Summer 2014 Forecast Includes a Record 30M Flying Internationally on U.S. Carriers
airlines.org2
179
186
183
192
185
176
177
180
180
179
180
21
22 24
25
26
24 26 26 27 28 30
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
Domestic International
Source: A4A and BTS T100 segment data
U.S. Airline Onboard Passengers (Millions)
Scheduled Service, June 1-August 31
210M passengers (2.28M per day)
• Up 1.5% from 2013; on par with 2008
• Remains 3% below 2007 all-time high
• YOY Seats: DOM +0.7%, INT +6.7%
• Average load factor: 85%-87%
30M travelers (~325K per day) on international
flights – a new record
10 of 15 busiest air travel days for U.S. airports
Key drivers:
• Economic expansion
• Accelerating job growth
• Rising personal incomes
• Increased household net worth
• Affordable airfares
• Improved airline financial condition
Summer 2014 Forecast Highlights
3. Key Air-Travel Demand Drivers Trending Positively
airlines.org
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
4Q13 1Q14 2QF 3QF 4QF
U.S. Economy (% CAGR) Expanding
3
U.S. Employment (000) Growing
0
100
200
300
400
Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14
Sources: BEA, BLS, Federal Reserve and IHS Economics; U.S. GDP real annual average growth rate (%), U.S. nonfarm payroll employment growth (month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted), U.S. disposable personal income per capita (chained 2009 dollars, SAAR); U.S. household net worth in current dollars, not seasonally adjusted
$36.2
$36.4
$36.6
$36.8
$37.0
$37.2
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Personal Incomes ($000) Rising Household Net Worth ($T) Growing
$73
$75
$77
$79
$81
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
4. In Summer 2014, Canada, Mexico and the UK Remain the Best Served Nonstop
Destinations; Norway, Qatar and the UAE Will See the Largest Year-Over-Year Gains
airlines.org4
Top 20 U.S. International Destinations
by Scheduled Seats per Day
47,580
38,917
33,207
20,563
20,104
13,911
12,670
9,724
9,699
9,391
8,970
7,022
6,506
6,414
5,990
5,772
5,222
4,965
4,874
4,767
Canada
Mexico
United Kingdom
Germany
Japan
France
Dominican Rep.
Brazil
South Korea
China
Netherlands
Italy
Jamaica
Spain
Bahamas
UAE
Colombia
Hong Kong
Panama
Ireland
Top 20 U.S. International Destinations
by YOY Change (%) in Seats
81.3
52.6
41.5
39.5
37.1
36.3
35.2
34.3
33.5
32.0
31.4
29.0
25.7
24.8
24.5
20.5
19.3
17.6
17.2
17.1
Norway
Qatar
UAE
Martinique
Denmark
Sweden
Philippines
Hong Kong
Trinidad & Tobago
Austria
Saint Kitts & Nevis
Saudi Arabia
Ethiopia
Antigua & Barbuda
China
Dominican Rep.
Taiwan
Portugal
Cayman Islands
Italy
Source: Innovata (via Diio Mi) published schedules as of May 2, 2014 for all airlines providing scheduled passenger service from U.S. airports to all destinations
5. January February March
Flight Completion Factor
(% of scheduled domestic departures)
93.46 94.49 98.0
On-Time Arrival Rate
(% of domestic flights within 00:15)
67.72 70.67 77.6
Mishandled Bags
(per 1,000 domestic passengers)
5.54 4.21 3.68
Customer Complaints
(per 100,000 systemwide passengers)
2.21 1.50 1.21
Sources: NTSB, BTS and DOT Air Travel Consumer Report (http://www.dot.gov/airconsumer/air-travel-consumer-reports)
airlines.org5
When It Comes to Airline Operational Performance, Weather Matters – a Lot
January and February Featured Two of the Worst Weather Days for Aviation Ever Recorded,
With 22% of Flights Canceled on January 6 and 32% of Flights Canceled on February 13
Worse BetterWEATHER
6. Healthy Air-Travel Volumes and Fuel-Price Relief Drive Margin Gains* in Early 2014
Lower Fuel Expense Largely Offsets Sharp Increases in Labor, Airport and Aircraft Costs
* A4A analysis of reports by Alaska, Allegiant, American/US Airways, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United
airlines.org6
Operating Revenues ($35.6B) 3.7
Operating Expenses ($34.1B) 0.5
Fuel (33% of Operating Expenses) (4.3)
Wages & Benefits (25%) 7.3
Maintenance, Materials & Repairs (6%) (5.2)
Landing Fees & Terminal Rents (5%) 7.1
Aircraft Rent (2%) (2.9)
Depreciation & Amortization (5%) 6.9
Other** (20%) (0.2)
Interest & Other Non-Operating Expenses 6.4
Income Tax & Other Expense / (Benefit) nmf
Net Profit: $401M (1.1% of Op. Revenues) + 2.7 pts.
** Professional fees, food/beverage, insurance, commissions, GDS fees, communications, advertising, utilities, office supplies, crew hotels, nonfuel payments to regionals
% Change YOY
1Q13 1Q14 Change
Passenger Yield1 16.07¢ 16.21¢ +0.8%
Passenger Traffic2 186.5B 190.4B +2.1%
1. Average airfare paid per mile flown, excluding taxes
2. Revenue passenger miles (RPMs) flown
1Q13 1Q14 Change
U.S. Inflation3 231.740 234.997 +1.4%
Personal Income4 $38,961 $40,045 +2.8%
3. U.S. Consumer Price Index (1982-84 = 100)
4. U.S. disposable personal income per capita
7. The Airline Industry Remains a Low-Margin Business, Lagging S&P 500 Average
airlines.org
18.0
16.5
13.2
11.0
9.4
5.24.73.93.42.91.81.1(0.9)(3.4)
McDonald´s
WaltDisney
CSX
Starbucks
S&P500
Marriott
Boeing
Walgreens
Walmart
Ford
Costco
Airlines*
Safeway
Sears
7
Sources: Standard & Poor’s and company SEC filings
* A4A analysis of reports by Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United
“Although it may seem like it’s becoming more popular to invest in airlines, data would show that
it’s not. Optimism appears confined to a small group… [T]here still isn’t a lot of long-term capital
invested in the space… Conclusion: still more room for improvement.”
“Who owns airline stocks? You might be surprised…,” Hunter Keay, CFA, Wolfe Research (March 17, 2014)
Net Profit Margin (%), 1Q 2014
9. Improving Finances Enabling Significant Reinvestment in Customer Experience
Airline Capital Spending Continues at Robust Clip of Approximately $1 Billion per Month
airlines.org9
5.2
6.6
9.8
12.4
3.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14
* SEC filings of Alaska, Allegiant, American/US Airways, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United
U.S. Airline* Capital Expenditures ($ Millions)
» Aircraft, engines, winglets, spare parts
» Ground equipment, loading bridges
» Airport facilities, aircraft hangars
» Premium seats, new aircraft interiors
» Maintenance facilities and machinery
» Bag carousels, carts, scanners
» In-flight entertainment and Wi-Fi
» Computers, kiosks, mobile technology
Planned 2014 Capital Expenditures: $12B
For these nine carriers: 1,751 aircraft on firm
order, of which 255 are being delivered in 2014
– the equivalent of one aircraft being received
every weekday of the year.
10. airlines.org10
Years of Staggering Losses Have Left U.S. Airlines* Saddled With Debt…
* SEC filings of Alaska, Allegiant, American/US Airways, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United
$79.5
$71.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2012 2013
Total Debt ($ Billions, Dec. 31)
“…it would be unreasonable to assume that
all airline risks have just disappeared… [T]he
business model requires a large cushion of
cash and significant reinvestment.”
Alexander MacLennan, The Motley Fool (Feb. 3, 2014)
“The industry is still subject to U.S. and
global economic cycles, oil price (the largest
operating expense) fluctuations, and
unforeseen events such as global terrorist
events and disease outbreaks.”
Betsy Snyder, Standard & Poor’s (Mar. 25, 2014)
11. Investment Grade1 (>= BBB-)
Source: Standard and Poor’s as of May 12, 2014; “Guide to Credit Rating Essentials: What are credit ratings and how do they work?”
airlines.org11
ExxonMobil, Microsoft AAA
GE, United States Government AA+
Wal-Mart AA
Toyota AA-
UPS A+
BP, eBay A
Amtrak, Starbucks A-
FedEx, Marriott, Starwood BBB
Ford, Lufthansa, Southwest, WestJet BBB-
Alaska, Qantas BB+
British Airways, Latam BB
Avis-Budget, Delta BB-
Hertz, Sabre B+
Air Canada, American, GOL, Hawaiian,
JetBlue, United B
SAS B-
Speculative2 Grade (< BBB-)
1 Describes issuers with relatively high levels of creditworthiness and credit quality
2 Describes issuers with ability to repay but facing significant uncertainties, such as adverse business or financial circumstances that could affect credit risk
Passenger Airline
Airline Creditworthiness Remains Far From Stellar
Per S&P, Only One U.S. Passenger Airline Has Investment-Grade Credit
12. U S Passenger Airline
BOS HOU* LAS LAX MSP NYC* OKC OMA PDX PHX SEA SNA WAS* + U.S.A.
ABQ ATL AUS BDL BNA BUR BWI CHS CLE CLT CMH CVG DAY
DEN DFW DSM DTW ELP FLL GEG GSO HNL IND JAX LIT MCI
MCO MDW MEM MIA MSY MYR OAK ONT ORD PBI PHL PIT RSW
SAN SAT SDF SFO SJC SMF STL TPA TYS
ALB COS CRP FAT FNT GRR GUM MHT
MOB PNS PVD PWM TUL VPS
Southwest
Alaska, Delta
American,
Hawaiian, JetBlue
United
AA ±
A ±
BBB ±
BB ±
B ±
Airline Creditworthiness Lags Airports & USA, Which Tout Stronger Balance Sheets
All S&P-Rated U.S. Airports and the U.S. Government Enjoy Investment-Grade Credit
airlines org12
Source: Standard and Poor’s
Investment Grade
Speculative Grade
* HOU = HOU/IAH; NYC = EWR/JFK/LGA; WAS=DCA/IAD
13. In 1Q 2014, U.S. Personal Incomes, Inflation and Air Passengers Outpaced Airfare
In Real Terms, Airfares Fell While Incomes Rose, Further Enhancing Air Travel Affordability
airlines.org
2.8
1.4
1.1
0.8
Personal Income
U.S. Inflation (CPI)
Passengers Enplaned
Price to Fly a Mile
13
Sources: BEA for U.S. disposable personal income per capita , BLS for U.S. Consumer Price Index and A4A analysis of airline earnings releases
% Change: 1Q 2014 vs. 1Q 2013
~21,000 more per day
14. U.S. Ticket Taxes on $300 One-Stop Domestic Round Trip* Keep on Rising
Growing Governmental Take Leaves Less Revenue for Carriers to Reinvest
July 1, 2014
9/11 Fee Hike
21% ($63)*
1971-1972
AATF Begins
7% ($22)*
1992-1993
PFC Begins
13% ($38)*
Taxes Airfare
Source: A4A analysis of federal tax code, including IRS Revenue Bulletin 2013-47, Rev. Proc. 2013-35, Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013, and President’s FY2015 budget
* Sample itinerary is a domestic round trip with one stop each way and maximum passenger facility charge (PFC) per airport; total ticket price includes taxes
airlines.org14
POTUS-Proposed
FY15 Budget
26% ($77)*
AATF = Airport and Airway Trust Fund
2002
9/11 Fee Begins
19% ($58)*
15. By Baking Taxes in With Airfares, DOT’s So-Called “Full Fare Advertising Rule” Has
Made it Easier for the Federal Government to Raise Taxes on Air Travelers
airlines.org15
16. Recap
airlines.org16
» Despite commencing 2014 with $72 billion in debt, the top airlines’ modest financial progress
has allowed them to continue to accelerate investments in people, products and technology to
enhance the customer experience and to cope more effectively with extreme weather
o In addition to seat growth, stable employment and rising wages, airlines are investing ~$12 billion more in
2014, including 255 new aircraft, larger overhead bins, premium seating, airport terminals and lounges,
ground equipment, mobile technology, customer kiosks, in-flight entertainment and WiFi
o Airlines have focused intently on improving baggage handling – equipment, software, staffing, training,
internal reporting/communication, airport/agency partnerships, performance incentives and logistics
» Commercial air travel remains one of the best bargains in America, with overall U.S. inflation
and U.S. disposable personal income per capita again outpacing the price of flying
» Millions of U.S. workers have benefited from improving airline finances — through enhanced
job security, higher wages and benefits and repayment of debt, as the airlines continue to
pursue investment-grade creditworthiness to minimize painful cuts during the next downturn
» The carriers continue to demonstrate that the flying public, employees, investors and the U.S.
economy all are vastly better off with a financially strong U.S. airline industry that can cover its
full costs over an entire business cycle and compete effectively on the global stage