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Navigating the
COVID-19
Independent School
Financial Crisis
Head of School & CFOs
April 14, 2020
Kelsey Vrooman
Ari M. Betof, Ed.D.
Kickoff, Intro, Agenda
• Who we are and who is in the room
• Understanding the magnitude of the crisis
• Mission-driven, community-centered, data-informed
decision making
• Modeling FY2019-2020
• Modeling FY2020-2021
• Discussion and questions
COVID-19:
The Financial Challenge We Face
Black Swan Events?
Characterized by:
• Extreme rarity
• Severe impact
• Widespread insistence they
were obvious in hindsight
~investopedia
“[A]n unpredictable event that is
beyond what is normally
expected of a situation and has
potentially severe consequences.”
Our Fukushima Tsunami Crisis
Earthquake 🡪 tsunami 🡪 nuclear disaster 🡪
aftermath
Our Fukushima Disaster:
What Can We Learn from Compounding Crises?
Insight from Higher Education
“Presidents Fear Financial, and Human, Toll of Coronavirus” Inside Higher Education. March 27, 2020
COVID-19 Pandemic
vs The Great Recession
COVID-19 vs Great Recession:
How do these two crises compare?
• Timing
• Goodwill
• Refunds
• Emergency financial aid
• Reductions in force
• Perception and reality: upward or downward spiral
Impact of Crisis Communications
on Financial Sustainability
“Choose your own adventure but at least know the hazards….”
• Federal and state emergency funding
• Cashflow
• Financial viability, stability, and sustainability
Seduction of False Optimism
A Model for Decision-Making
Community
Centered
Mission
Driven
Data
Informed+ +
Not the right action at this time.
A Model for Decision-Making
Does this action
align with our
mission and
values?
NO NO NO
YES YES YES!
Does this action
match the
underlying anxieties
and drivers of our
community?
Does my best
available data
support this
action?
Maxim 1:
Run your model many times to build a
curve of possibility.
Maxim 2:
Models are iterative and must be
refined over time.
The Value of Modeling
When your best available data is uncertain.
COVID-19:
The Financial Challenge We Face
•Our Fukushima tsunami crisis
•Financial viability, stability, and sustainability
•Mission-driven, community-centered, data-informed
decision making
•Iterative data modeling gives us a clearer picture of what
could happen in times of uncertainty
Recap and pause before we move to the model.
Introducing Our Model School:
Corona School
”Causing havoc since December 2019”
• 300 student
• K-12 school
• $31,586 tuition
• 25% students on finaid
• $18,353 avg finaid grant
• $5MM endowment
Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 on
Independent Schools
What can and should schools do on their own?
And yes, Ari and Kelsey (and others) are available to help!
Interested in the model and consulting?
Contact Kelsey@actionableird.com
Questions and Courage for the Future!
Ari M. Betof, Ed.D. Kelsey Vrooman

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Aims aisgw covid19 financial sustainability webinar osc actionable april 14 2020 deck (1)

  • 1. Navigating the COVID-19 Independent School Financial Crisis Head of School & CFOs April 14, 2020 Kelsey Vrooman Ari M. Betof, Ed.D.
  • 2. Kickoff, Intro, Agenda • Who we are and who is in the room • Understanding the magnitude of the crisis • Mission-driven, community-centered, data-informed decision making • Modeling FY2019-2020 • Modeling FY2020-2021 • Discussion and questions
  • 4. Black Swan Events? Characterized by: • Extreme rarity • Severe impact • Widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight ~investopedia “[A]n unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.”
  • 5. Our Fukushima Tsunami Crisis Earthquake 🡪 tsunami 🡪 nuclear disaster 🡪 aftermath Our Fukushima Disaster: What Can We Learn from Compounding Crises?
  • 6. Insight from Higher Education “Presidents Fear Financial, and Human, Toll of Coronavirus” Inside Higher Education. March 27, 2020
  • 7. COVID-19 Pandemic vs The Great Recession COVID-19 vs Great Recession: How do these two crises compare?
  • 8. • Timing • Goodwill • Refunds • Emergency financial aid • Reductions in force • Perception and reality: upward or downward spiral Impact of Crisis Communications on Financial Sustainability “Choose your own adventure but at least know the hazards….”
  • 9. • Federal and state emergency funding • Cashflow • Financial viability, stability, and sustainability Seduction of False Optimism
  • 10. A Model for Decision-Making Community Centered Mission Driven Data Informed+ +
  • 11. Not the right action at this time. A Model for Decision-Making Does this action align with our mission and values? NO NO NO YES YES YES! Does this action match the underlying anxieties and drivers of our community? Does my best available data support this action?
  • 12. Maxim 1: Run your model many times to build a curve of possibility. Maxim 2: Models are iterative and must be refined over time. The Value of Modeling When your best available data is uncertain.
  • 13.
  • 14. COVID-19: The Financial Challenge We Face •Our Fukushima tsunami crisis •Financial viability, stability, and sustainability •Mission-driven, community-centered, data-informed decision making •Iterative data modeling gives us a clearer picture of what could happen in times of uncertainty Recap and pause before we move to the model.
  • 15. Introducing Our Model School: Corona School ”Causing havoc since December 2019” • 300 student • K-12 school • $31,586 tuition • 25% students on finaid • $18,353 avg finaid grant • $5MM endowment
  • 16. Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 on Independent Schools
  • 17. What can and should schools do on their own? And yes, Ari and Kelsey (and others) are available to help! Interested in the model and consulting? Contact Kelsey@actionableird.com
  • 18. Questions and Courage for the Future! Ari M. Betof, Ed.D. Kelsey Vrooman