Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios. Agcapita publishes a monthly agriculture briefing.
Brasil Ecodiesel is the largest biodiesel producer in Brazil with a nationwide presence. It has clear leadership in the domestic market in terms of installed capacity and biodiesel production. The company focuses on non-edible, high oil yield crops like castor and jatropha to produce biodiesel. It has an integrated operating process involving contracting farmers, raw material collection, oil extraction, and biodiesel delivery. The company aims to diversify its vegetable oil sourcing away from a reliance on soy oil.
The document provides a macroeconomic update and discusses several topics:
1) Demographics are an important factor in economic growth, and western countries face challenges from aging populations while emerging economies like China have younger populations.
2) Up to 40% of US corporate profits come from the finance sector, disproportionately benefiting from monetary policies.
3) US policies have the effect of exporting inflation to trading partners through currency devaluations.
4) Government deficits and debt are growing much faster than tax receipts in many developed nations, risking unsustainable trajectories.
This document provides instructions and examples for using the MySQL database system. It discusses MySQL concepts like database, tables, rows, and columns. It also demonstrates common SQL commands like CREATE, SELECT, INSERT, UPDATE, DROP. Examples show how to create databases and tables, insert and query data, use functions, conditions and wildcards. Script files demonstrate populating tables with sample data.
This document discusses testing the capabilities of virtual CPUs in a VMware ESX Server 2.5.1 environment running Microsoft Exchange Server 2003 front-end services. Dell engineers configured ESX Server on a Dell PowerEdge 2850 server connected to a Dell/EMC CX300 storage area network. Two virtual machines running Windows 2003 Server were created with 1 VCPU and 3.6GB RAM each to test Exchange 2003 front-end protocols like SMTP and Outlook Web Access under varying workloads. The document focuses on exploring virtual CPU resource management options in ESX Server and how they can provide flexibility and optimize resource utilization for Internet mail scenarios.
The economic data this week showed signs that the U.S. and global economies have stabilized and possibly bottomed out. Retail sales are expected to rise significantly due to the "Cash for Clunkers" program. Upcoming reports on retail sales, consumer prices, and other economic indicators next week could generate market reactions. Financial markets continued higher despite thin economic data, perhaps waiting for stronger confirmation of recovery.
This document summarizes the evolution of different language teaching methods from the 1500s to present day, including: grammar translation in the 1500s focusing on accuracy; audiolingualism in the 1900s using drilling and habit formation; communicative language teaching in the 1970s-1980s emphasizing functional competence and interaction; task-based language teaching in the 2000s using meaningful real-world tasks; and most recently, focus on vocabulary and chunks through corpus linguistics. The document outlines the key principles and activities of each approach.
The document discusses various topics related to electronic commerce including forms of e-commerce like business-to-business and business-to-consumer, key technology infrastructure components for e-commerce like web servers and hosting, electronic payment systems and security, and challenges and strategies for successful e-commerce. It also provides an overview of transaction processing systems, their objectives to process and maintain accurate data, and examples of traditional transaction processing applications.
Slide 1 - Free Web Hosting with PHP, MySQL and cPanelwebhostingguy
Dokumen tersebut memberikan panduan umum tentang penulisan artikel ilmiah, meliputi bagian-bagian utama artikel seperti judul, abstrak, pendahuluan, metode, hasil dan pembahasan, kesimpulan, serta format penulisan dan penomoran tabel dan gambar. Dokumen tersebut juga menjelaskan proses penulisan artikel ilmiah mulai dari pemilihan jurnal hingga pengiriman naskah.
Brasil Ecodiesel is the largest biodiesel producer in Brazil with a nationwide presence. It has clear leadership in the domestic market in terms of installed capacity and biodiesel production. The company focuses on non-edible, high oil yield crops like castor and jatropha to produce biodiesel. It has an integrated operating process involving contracting farmers, raw material collection, oil extraction, and biodiesel delivery. The company aims to diversify its vegetable oil sourcing away from a reliance on soy oil.
The document provides a macroeconomic update and discusses several topics:
1) Demographics are an important factor in economic growth, and western countries face challenges from aging populations while emerging economies like China have younger populations.
2) Up to 40% of US corporate profits come from the finance sector, disproportionately benefiting from monetary policies.
3) US policies have the effect of exporting inflation to trading partners through currency devaluations.
4) Government deficits and debt are growing much faster than tax receipts in many developed nations, risking unsustainable trajectories.
This document provides instructions and examples for using the MySQL database system. It discusses MySQL concepts like database, tables, rows, and columns. It also demonstrates common SQL commands like CREATE, SELECT, INSERT, UPDATE, DROP. Examples show how to create databases and tables, insert and query data, use functions, conditions and wildcards. Script files demonstrate populating tables with sample data.
This document discusses testing the capabilities of virtual CPUs in a VMware ESX Server 2.5.1 environment running Microsoft Exchange Server 2003 front-end services. Dell engineers configured ESX Server on a Dell PowerEdge 2850 server connected to a Dell/EMC CX300 storage area network. Two virtual machines running Windows 2003 Server were created with 1 VCPU and 3.6GB RAM each to test Exchange 2003 front-end protocols like SMTP and Outlook Web Access under varying workloads. The document focuses on exploring virtual CPU resource management options in ESX Server and how they can provide flexibility and optimize resource utilization for Internet mail scenarios.
The economic data this week showed signs that the U.S. and global economies have stabilized and possibly bottomed out. Retail sales are expected to rise significantly due to the "Cash for Clunkers" program. Upcoming reports on retail sales, consumer prices, and other economic indicators next week could generate market reactions. Financial markets continued higher despite thin economic data, perhaps waiting for stronger confirmation of recovery.
This document summarizes the evolution of different language teaching methods from the 1500s to present day, including: grammar translation in the 1500s focusing on accuracy; audiolingualism in the 1900s using drilling and habit formation; communicative language teaching in the 1970s-1980s emphasizing functional competence and interaction; task-based language teaching in the 2000s using meaningful real-world tasks; and most recently, focus on vocabulary and chunks through corpus linguistics. The document outlines the key principles and activities of each approach.
The document discusses various topics related to electronic commerce including forms of e-commerce like business-to-business and business-to-consumer, key technology infrastructure components for e-commerce like web servers and hosting, electronic payment systems and security, and challenges and strategies for successful e-commerce. It also provides an overview of transaction processing systems, their objectives to process and maintain accurate data, and examples of traditional transaction processing applications.
Slide 1 - Free Web Hosting with PHP, MySQL and cPanelwebhostingguy
Dokumen tersebut memberikan panduan umum tentang penulisan artikel ilmiah, meliputi bagian-bagian utama artikel seperti judul, abstrak, pendahuluan, metode, hasil dan pembahasan, kesimpulan, serta format penulisan dan penomoran tabel dan gambar. Dokumen tersebut juga menjelaskan proses penulisan artikel ilmiah mulai dari pemilihan jurnal hingga pengiriman naskah.
The document discusses trends in global water availability and demand. Population growth is expected to increase water demand by over 2,000 cubic kilometers per year by 2030. Both China and India face significant water challenges to meet the needs of their large populations. In China, water resources per capita are already below the world average and expected to decline further. India's urban and industrial water demand is projected to double and triple respectively by 2025. As water imports are difficult, investing in agricultural land in major food exporting countries may be a way to indirectly invest in growing global water demand.
The advance figure for fourth quarter growth surprised to the upside, although the story was largely as anticipated. The GDP data will be revised at the end of February and again in late March (and in perpetuity, in annual benchmark revisions). Don’t get too wedded to the numbers. However, the story is unlikely to change much in revision.
The document provides questions about the technical requirements and considerations for a website or application project. It covers topics such as the purpose and functions of the site, hosting details, content management needs, reporting requirements, compatibility targets, and user generated content filtering. The questions are intended to help define the full scope and specifications of the project.
This document provides an introduction and overview of using PHP as a scripting language for web programming applications in agricultural climatology. It covers background information on PHP and why it is suitable, basic syntax, variables and data types, control structures, functions, file input/output, and provides exercises for users to practice skills like reading weather data files and calculating cumulative growing degree units. The final section outlines a project exercise for users to build on the skills by reading a NASA weather data file and calculating thermal time between user-selected dates.
The document provides an overview of the early internet and how it has evolved. It describes how the original peer-to-peer network model gave way to centralized backbone systems with nodes that could resell bandwidth. It also discusses how HTML enabled the creation of hyperlinked web pages and how the web has transformed communication, business, and entertainment. Key aspects covered include finding an internet service provider, understanding URLs, and the basic hardware requirements to connect to an ISP.
The document provides an overview of using the Internet and its various resources and technologies. It discusses topics such as online communications methods like email and social networking; terminology like domains, URLs, and browsers for navigating the web; issues like spam, malware, and piracy; and the origins and future of the Internet infrastructure. It aims to educate users on making the most of Internet resources while avoiding common problems and legal issues.
This presentation is part of the _Newport e-Vermont_ project and courtesy of e-VT partner Vt Small Business Development Council (VtSBDC). Excllent useful info for those small businesses considering going online. It\'s a good idea, a necessary tool for successful business ... how do you get there from here?
FTGate 4 is a mail and groupware server software that offers webmail, administration, collaboration tools, security features and is a cheaper alternative to Microsoft solutions. It provides email, calendaring, contacts and file sharing functionality along with anti-spam and antivirus protection. Softdebut promotes FTGate 4 and its SmartPOP solution as an affordable email solution for businesses that uses less bandwidth compared to hosted email.
1. Conflict has arisen between India and China over water resources from the Brahmaputra River, as both countries face water scarcity issues. China has begun constructing dams on the river, worrying India about downstream water availability.
2. India is concerned about the impacts on its agricultural economy and flood management. China views the river as an opportunity for hydropower and addressing water scarcity in Southern China.
3. Opportunities for cooperation include existing dialogues, potential water treaties, and joint infrastructure projects that could help equitably manage the shared river basin. However, both countries have competing interests that must be addressed.
Integrating urban water management through green infrastructure by shashi she...Shashi Singh
Integrating urban water management through green infrastructure
Urbanization is increasing rapidly in India, putting strain on water resources and sanitation. Green infrastructure can help address these problems by managing stormwater and recharging groundwater. Examples of green infrastructure include rain gardens, permeable pavement, green roofs, and wetland conservation. Case studies show how green infrastructure projects in India have effectively captured and recharged stormwater runoff from roads and buildings. An integrated urban water management approach is needed to sustainably manage water resources through practices like water reuse, rainwater harvesting, and awareness campaigns.
This document discusses Kemira's strategy to become a leading water chemistry company through improving customers' water-intensive processes with chemistry applications and products. It outlines Kemira's vision, mission, and growth targets. It also discusses global megatrends like rising population and energy/food demands that are driving increased water needs. Kemira is focusing its innovation on areas like water reuse, resource efficiency, and sustainability to help address water challenges. Initiatives include its SWEET program and exploring new technologies like forward osmosis and water recovery from flue gases.
The document discusses several key issues related to water and agriculture in India:
1) Agriculture is the largest user of water in India but is not always an efficient user, and agricultural water demand can be reduced through various conservation measures and cropping changes.
2) The traditional approach of large irrigation projects is no longer sustainable, and water policy must shift priority to restraining demand growth and increasing local solutions like watershed management.
3) Groundwater exploitation also needs to be curtailed to protect resources and equity, as over half of India's irrigation water comes from unsustainable groundwater use.
Informing policy development for sustainable and productive food production s...Joanna Hicks
The document discusses improving food production systems in dry areas through more efficient water use. It notes that global food security faces challenges of increasing production 70-100% by 2050 without significant price increases due to population growth, climate change, and land/water constraints. Dry areas have severe water scarcity issues exacerbating these challenges. The document advocates for policies and research that optimize productivity through sustainable production, rural development, and environmental/social outcomes to better inform policy development for dry areas.
Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Studies(IGIDR), and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) on
‘Harnessing Opportunities to Improve Agri-Food Systems’ on July 24-25 , 2014 in New Delhi.
The two day conference aims to discuss the agricultural priority of the government and develop a road map to realise these priorities for improved agri food systems.
Understanding the Water Demand Implication of Socioeconomic Development Strat...CPWF Mekong
The document discusses water demand projections for the Central Highland provinces of Gia Lai and Kon Tum based on their socioeconomic development strategies. It introduces a model to project integrated water demand by sector, season, and district based on social and economic inputs. Initial test results show that water demand will significantly increase in both provinces to meet development targets. Agriculture will remain the largest user but demand from other sectors will also grow rapidly. Upstream areas may face higher demand growth than downstream areas. Future development strategies should take an integrated approach to water use and management across regions.
This document examines the food-energy-irrigation nexus in three Indian states - West Bengal, Punjab, and Karnataka. It finds that while the broad issues are the same across states, with agriculture dependent on unsustainable groundwater extraction and electricity subsidies, each state manages this nexus differently. West Bengal has implemented a hi-tech metering system with time-of-day pricing that has improved efficiency. Punjab has taken steps like rationing that have reduced losses but subsidy burdens rise. Karnataka shows utter mismanagement as groundwater extraction and pumps continue increasing rapidly. Effective management of this nexus depends on political will and governance that states like West Bengal and Punjab have demonstrated to some extent but is lacking in Karnataka
The document discusses the impact that increasing water scarcity will have on global food security. It provides historical examples of overexploitation of water resources in the Middle East, India, Australia, and other regions to meet growing demands. Reasons for rising water scarcity include population growth, changing diets, urbanization, biofuel production, and climate change. To ensure future food security, the document calls for adaptive responses like improving water storage and irrigation systems, increasing water productivity, and developing new policies around water allocation and management.
The document discusses water resource management in Malawi, outlining some key challenges including defunct infrastructure, health and sanitation issues, and the need for maintenance of new infrastructure provided by NGOs. It also discusses partnerships between Malawi and Scotland aimed at investing in the right areas to maximize impact. Some specific projects mentioned include providing clean water supplies to health offices and introducing new technologies. Climate change is noted as a potential threat given Malawi's heavy reliance on agriculture and projected population growth.
This document discusses trends in the agricultural industry and Monsanto's strategies to address them. It notes that demand for corn will remain strong but nitrogen costs are rising, so Monsanto aims to develop nitrogen-efficient corn to reduce farmer costs. For soybeans, it aims to develop new traits as production shifts to higher-value segments to meet demands for yield and oil content. For cotton, boosting yields is key as production moves to higher-value markets. Monsanto seeks drought-tolerant and water-efficient traits to address water usage challenges across crops.
The document discusses trends in global water availability and demand. Population growth is expected to increase water demand by over 2,000 cubic kilometers per year by 2030. Both China and India face significant water challenges to meet the needs of their large populations. In China, water resources per capita are already below the world average and expected to decline further. India's urban and industrial water demand is projected to double and triple respectively by 2025. As water imports are difficult, investing in agricultural land in major food exporting countries may be a way to indirectly invest in growing global water demand.
The advance figure for fourth quarter growth surprised to the upside, although the story was largely as anticipated. The GDP data will be revised at the end of February and again in late March (and in perpetuity, in annual benchmark revisions). Don’t get too wedded to the numbers. However, the story is unlikely to change much in revision.
The document provides questions about the technical requirements and considerations for a website or application project. It covers topics such as the purpose and functions of the site, hosting details, content management needs, reporting requirements, compatibility targets, and user generated content filtering. The questions are intended to help define the full scope and specifications of the project.
This document provides an introduction and overview of using PHP as a scripting language for web programming applications in agricultural climatology. It covers background information on PHP and why it is suitable, basic syntax, variables and data types, control structures, functions, file input/output, and provides exercises for users to practice skills like reading weather data files and calculating cumulative growing degree units. The final section outlines a project exercise for users to build on the skills by reading a NASA weather data file and calculating thermal time between user-selected dates.
The document provides an overview of the early internet and how it has evolved. It describes how the original peer-to-peer network model gave way to centralized backbone systems with nodes that could resell bandwidth. It also discusses how HTML enabled the creation of hyperlinked web pages and how the web has transformed communication, business, and entertainment. Key aspects covered include finding an internet service provider, understanding URLs, and the basic hardware requirements to connect to an ISP.
The document provides an overview of using the Internet and its various resources and technologies. It discusses topics such as online communications methods like email and social networking; terminology like domains, URLs, and browsers for navigating the web; issues like spam, malware, and piracy; and the origins and future of the Internet infrastructure. It aims to educate users on making the most of Internet resources while avoiding common problems and legal issues.
This presentation is part of the _Newport e-Vermont_ project and courtesy of e-VT partner Vt Small Business Development Council (VtSBDC). Excllent useful info for those small businesses considering going online. It\'s a good idea, a necessary tool for successful business ... how do you get there from here?
FTGate 4 is a mail and groupware server software that offers webmail, administration, collaboration tools, security features and is a cheaper alternative to Microsoft solutions. It provides email, calendaring, contacts and file sharing functionality along with anti-spam and antivirus protection. Softdebut promotes FTGate 4 and its SmartPOP solution as an affordable email solution for businesses that uses less bandwidth compared to hosted email.
1. Conflict has arisen between India and China over water resources from the Brahmaputra River, as both countries face water scarcity issues. China has begun constructing dams on the river, worrying India about downstream water availability.
2. India is concerned about the impacts on its agricultural economy and flood management. China views the river as an opportunity for hydropower and addressing water scarcity in Southern China.
3. Opportunities for cooperation include existing dialogues, potential water treaties, and joint infrastructure projects that could help equitably manage the shared river basin. However, both countries have competing interests that must be addressed.
Integrating urban water management through green infrastructure by shashi she...Shashi Singh
Integrating urban water management through green infrastructure
Urbanization is increasing rapidly in India, putting strain on water resources and sanitation. Green infrastructure can help address these problems by managing stormwater and recharging groundwater. Examples of green infrastructure include rain gardens, permeable pavement, green roofs, and wetland conservation. Case studies show how green infrastructure projects in India have effectively captured and recharged stormwater runoff from roads and buildings. An integrated urban water management approach is needed to sustainably manage water resources through practices like water reuse, rainwater harvesting, and awareness campaigns.
This document discusses Kemira's strategy to become a leading water chemistry company through improving customers' water-intensive processes with chemistry applications and products. It outlines Kemira's vision, mission, and growth targets. It also discusses global megatrends like rising population and energy/food demands that are driving increased water needs. Kemira is focusing its innovation on areas like water reuse, resource efficiency, and sustainability to help address water challenges. Initiatives include its SWEET program and exploring new technologies like forward osmosis and water recovery from flue gases.
The document discusses several key issues related to water and agriculture in India:
1) Agriculture is the largest user of water in India but is not always an efficient user, and agricultural water demand can be reduced through various conservation measures and cropping changes.
2) The traditional approach of large irrigation projects is no longer sustainable, and water policy must shift priority to restraining demand growth and increasing local solutions like watershed management.
3) Groundwater exploitation also needs to be curtailed to protect resources and equity, as over half of India's irrigation water comes from unsustainable groundwater use.
Informing policy development for sustainable and productive food production s...Joanna Hicks
The document discusses improving food production systems in dry areas through more efficient water use. It notes that global food security faces challenges of increasing production 70-100% by 2050 without significant price increases due to population growth, climate change, and land/water constraints. Dry areas have severe water scarcity issues exacerbating these challenges. The document advocates for policies and research that optimize productivity through sustainable production, rural development, and environmental/social outcomes to better inform policy development for dry areas.
Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Studies(IGIDR), and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) on
‘Harnessing Opportunities to Improve Agri-Food Systems’ on July 24-25 , 2014 in New Delhi.
The two day conference aims to discuss the agricultural priority of the government and develop a road map to realise these priorities for improved agri food systems.
Understanding the Water Demand Implication of Socioeconomic Development Strat...CPWF Mekong
The document discusses water demand projections for the Central Highland provinces of Gia Lai and Kon Tum based on their socioeconomic development strategies. It introduces a model to project integrated water demand by sector, season, and district based on social and economic inputs. Initial test results show that water demand will significantly increase in both provinces to meet development targets. Agriculture will remain the largest user but demand from other sectors will also grow rapidly. Upstream areas may face higher demand growth than downstream areas. Future development strategies should take an integrated approach to water use and management across regions.
This document examines the food-energy-irrigation nexus in three Indian states - West Bengal, Punjab, and Karnataka. It finds that while the broad issues are the same across states, with agriculture dependent on unsustainable groundwater extraction and electricity subsidies, each state manages this nexus differently. West Bengal has implemented a hi-tech metering system with time-of-day pricing that has improved efficiency. Punjab has taken steps like rationing that have reduced losses but subsidy burdens rise. Karnataka shows utter mismanagement as groundwater extraction and pumps continue increasing rapidly. Effective management of this nexus depends on political will and governance that states like West Bengal and Punjab have demonstrated to some extent but is lacking in Karnataka
The document discusses the impact that increasing water scarcity will have on global food security. It provides historical examples of overexploitation of water resources in the Middle East, India, Australia, and other regions to meet growing demands. Reasons for rising water scarcity include population growth, changing diets, urbanization, biofuel production, and climate change. To ensure future food security, the document calls for adaptive responses like improving water storage and irrigation systems, increasing water productivity, and developing new policies around water allocation and management.
The document discusses water resource management in Malawi, outlining some key challenges including defunct infrastructure, health and sanitation issues, and the need for maintenance of new infrastructure provided by NGOs. It also discusses partnerships between Malawi and Scotland aimed at investing in the right areas to maximize impact. Some specific projects mentioned include providing clean water supplies to health offices and introducing new technologies. Climate change is noted as a potential threat given Malawi's heavy reliance on agriculture and projected population growth.
This document discusses trends in the agricultural industry and Monsanto's strategies to address them. It notes that demand for corn will remain strong but nitrogen costs are rising, so Monsanto aims to develop nitrogen-efficient corn to reduce farmer costs. For soybeans, it aims to develop new traits as production shifts to higher-value segments to meet demands for yield and oil content. For cotton, boosting yields is key as production moves to higher-value markets. Monsanto seeks drought-tolerant and water-efficient traits to address water usage challenges across crops.
Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the context of groundwater use in India: Experience from three Indian States
A presentation by Aditi Mukherji
Presented at an ‘Expert Group Meeting on Improving Access to Water, Sanitation and Energy Services in Asia and the Pacific’ in Bangkok, Thailand on 20 March 2013
Similar to Agcapita Feb 2010 Agriculture Briefing (15)
Veripath has over 90,000 (2021) acres across its Canadian row-crop portfolios and its principals have been investing in the Canadian farmland space since 2007, including creating the first RRSP eligible Canadian farmland fund. Minimum and zero tillage methodologies have very high penetration in Canadian prairies (AB, SK and MB). These tillage techniques are accepted to increase carbon/biomass in the soil and are a key component of conservation/regenerative agriculture practices. Veripath portfolios have minimum and zero tillage usages levels that on average are materially higher
than baseline provincial levels
Canadian Farmland - Saskatchewan Provincial Fact SheetVeripath Partners
Saskatchewan farmland ownership regulations allow Canadian citizens and permanent residents, as well as fully Canadian-owned corporations and organizations, to own farmland without restrictions. Non-residents and foreign entities can own up to 10 acres, while partially foreign-owned entities controlled by Saskatchewan residents can own up to 320 acres. Saskatchewan accounts for 38% of Canadian farmland and major crops include wheat, canola, oats, lentils, and barley. The province has over 68 million acres of arable land and produces over 1.78 million metric tonnes of total crops annually.
Quebec has ownership regulations for farmland that deem corporations and other legal persons as residents based on majority ownership and control by Quebec residents. Non-residents can apply to purchase farmland if the land is unsuitable for cultivation or livestock, or if the non-resident intends to settle in Quebec within 4 years and become a citizen or permanent resident. The province limits non-resident purchases to 1,000 hectares per year. The fact sheet also provides key metrics on Quebec farmland, including 8 million acres of arable land representing 5% of Canadian farmland. Major crops include corn, soybeans, barley, oats and wheat.
- Agricultural land use in Ontario is governed by the 2005 Provincial Policy Statement which does not restrict foreign or institutional ownership of farmland.
- Key metrics about Ontario farmland include 13 million acres of arable land, which makes up 8% of Canadian farmland. The average farm size is 57 acres.
- Major crops grown in Ontario include corn at 16% of production, wheat at 16%, and soybeans at 25%.
Legislation in Manitoba allows foreign ownership of up to 40 acres of farmland unless granted an exemption. Only Canadian citizens, permanent residents, and Canadian-controlled corporations and entities can purchase unlimited amounts of farmland. Manitoba has 19 million acres of arable land, representing 11% of Canadian farmland. The major crops grown are wheat, canola, barley, oats, corn, and soybeans.
British Columbia farmland statistics:
- There are 7 million acres of arable land in BC, comprising 4% of total Canadian farmland.
- Major crops grown in BC include wheat (25%), barley (25%), soybeans (24%), and canola (23%).
- The average farm size in BC is 240 acres. Farmland in BC is regulated by the Agricultural Land Commission but there are no restrictions on institutional or foreign ownership of farmland.
Alberta has no restrictions on institutional or foreign ownership of farmland. It has 52 million acres of arable land, comprising 31% of Canadian farmland. Major crops include wheat (48%), canola (23%), and barley (23%). The average farm size is 23 acres.
Alberta accounts for 31% of Canadian farmland and produces over 1.2 million metric tonnes of crops annually. The major crops grown in Alberta are wheat, canola, and barley. The average farm size in Alberta is approximately 23 acres. Canadian citizens and companies are not restricted by foreign ownership regulations when purchasing Alberta farmland.
"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome" – Veripath Farmland Funds Q4 Investor Letter: Investing in a World of Financial Repression, Negative Real Rates, Valuation “Challenges” and Inflationary Forces.
Do G7 governments have an incentive to attempt to keep inflation higher for longer and real rates lower for longer? Negative real rates across a broad spectrum of credit assets are a graphic sign that we inhabit a world of financial repression orchestrated by central banks at the formal/informal behest of sovereign borrowers. In a normally functioning market, lenders do not provide capital to borrowers for negative yields – i.e., they do not pay for the privilege of lending. It goes without saying we are not in a normally functioning market.
Veripath Research "As people in the emerging economies of India and China make the transition to western standards of
living there is an often-overlooked issue – their water
consumption is rising dramatically.
Veripath Farmland Partners Research - portfolio optimization using farmland a...Veripath Partners
A review of the Canadian farmland market over the last 30 years reveals: a farmland holding would have improved the financial performance of typical investor portfolios; realized volatility that was lower than stocks; realized returns that were greater than bonds; a low correlation to traditional financial asset returns; and most importantly domestic institutional and retail investors are clearly under-invested relative to efficient frontier analysis.
Are fiscal/monetary conditions affecting the macro thesis for Canadian farmland investments? Do publicly traded equity investments hedge all inflation regimes? Canada's debt to GDP - looming threat or irrelevancy?
- The document discusses Canadian farmland as an investment during periods of low or negative real interest rates (when inflation is higher than nominal interest rates). It finds that farmland appreciates significantly more during such periods, averaging 11.3% annual returns, compared to periods of higher real rates where returns are barely positive.
- Canadian farmland demonstrated resilience during the 2020 COVID-19 economic disruption, with appreciation of 3.6-8% across provinces.
- Soft commodity prices have increased noticeably in recent quarters, benefiting Canadian farmland and food producers.
This newsletter discusses recent economic and monetary policies that have led to rising government debt and money printing. It summarizes the history of past currency failures in France and Germany when governments excessively issued paper currencies. The author argues that current policies of unlimited deficit spending and money printing will not lead to lasting prosperity and will end in economic problems. The newsletter recommends investing in assets that benefit from emerging market growth, reduce counterparty risk, hedge inflation, and have inelastic demand to improve portfolio returns in this environment.
Equicapita Announces Acquisition of Majority of CCMETVeripath Partners
Equicapita Income Trust and Equicapita Income LP (collectively “Equicapita” or the
“Fund”) are pleased to announce the completion of the acquisition of a 70% equity ownership of CCMET
Group of Companies, a leading provider of integrated, full service materials engineering and testing
services throughout Western Canada, by an affiliate of the Fund.
Equicapita Reaches $100M in Subscribed Trust Capital Veripath Partners
Equicapita Income Trust announces it has completed the raise of $100M in subscribed preferred trust capital.
Stephen Johnston, a partner at Equicapita reports, "Equicapita is pleased to have passed the $100M mark in subscribed capital. Equicapita is part of a group of innovative Calgary based alternative funds seeking alternative investments. As managers we seek to deliver superior investment returns with lower volatility than public markets through private equity investing that combines strong underlying asset fundamentals and a disciplined value style. In practice we look for investments with: established macro drivers (typically in the form of a favourable supply/demand situation) and: a margin of safety (in the form of discounted asset prices, ability to acquire cash flow cheaply). To date, we have successfully deployed capital in multiple investment strategies via a group of funds – in farmland, SME PE, energy and non-bank lending – and currently have approximately $300M in unlevered AUM.
Agcapita is pleased to announce that Agcapita Fund IV has launched. Agcapita Fund V is a $20 million offering and is the only RRSP eligible farmland investment vehicle in Canada. If you would like to receive information about Agcapita Fund V please feel free to contact us at Fund5@agcapita.com or register online at the Agcapita website.
Stephen Johnston, co-founder of Agcapita, commented "Agcapita believes that prices of Canada farmland, in particular Saskatchewan farmland, are discounted to world averages for a tonne of productive capacity. Part of our investment premise is that this gap will close and with the attention that Canadian farmland is receiving from investors it can obviously happen quite quickly. It is this "margin of safety" return driver that attracted us to Canada and Saskatchewan in the first place.”
Investigating the Long Run Relationship Between Crude Oil and Food Commodity ...Veripath Partners
"Crude oil price is believed to be one of the factors that affect food commodity prices. It is an
agricultural production input, therefore the prices of fertilizer, fuel and transportation are affected by the crude oil prices directly, and subsequently they influence the production of grain commodities. There is another dimension to how oil prices can affect food commodity prices, and it is from the derived demand for biofuels. With rising oil prices, demand for biofuels increase and the production
of these fuel is highly dependent on the availability of agricultural feed stocks. So it is primarily because of the above two dynamics that I want to investigate if there is a long term relationship between crude oil prices and food commodity prices. This is an important issue in present times because of the rising prices and volatility in the oil and food commodity markets. I will try to examine if there exist a cointegrating relationship between crude oil price and food commodity price for the period between 1980 to 2011. The food commodities selected are maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Time Series econometric techniques were applied to find our results. The Engle-Granger Co-integration test revealed that there is long run relationship between crude oil prices and maize, soybean, wheat. But, rice prices were not found to be cointegrated. I also carried out the traditional Granger Causality test to check whether causality exist between the two prices. We find that there is unidirectional causality, with only crude oil prices ‘Granger causing’ each of the four food commodity prices. The reverse was not true, as crude oil prices were not found to be influenced by price of food commodities. So from our results we can confirm the significance of oil prices and the impact it has on the food commodity prices."
VBA Journal: Farmland, Reaping the Reward of IlliquidityVeripath Partners
Farmland is an asset class that provides a legal claim on land, and the agricultural produce that is grown on that land, in perpetuity. The returns from farmland are like those of a perpetual bond, with the proviso that operational farming returns show high volatility, being largely driven in the short term by climatic conditions and commodity prices. Bonds are typically priced at between 20 and 50 times returns, which is consistent with farmland price multiples. In contrast, equities in a moderate growth sector generally trade at a price to earnings ratio of approximately 10, making farmland look less attractive if perceived as a stock. Like other real assets farmland is protected against inflation, as is farm production. Farmland is thus similar to an inflation-protected perpetual bond with a variable yield, where both principal
and coupons are protected against currency depreciation.
Agcapita Update – Canadian Growing Season Lengthens 2 Weeks Over Last 50 Year...Veripath Partners
According to a recent Bloomberg article: "Corn is the most common grain in the U.S., with its production historically concentrated in a Midwestern region stretching from the Ohio River valley to Nebraska and trailing off in northern Minnesota. It had been ungrowable in the fertile farmland of Canada’s breadbasket. That is changing as a warming climate, along with the development of faster-maturing seed varieties, turns the table on food cultivation. The Corn Belt is being pushed north of what was imaginable a generation ago. Growing seasons on the Canadian prairie have lengthened about two weeks in the past half-century.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia
The Rise of Generative AI in Finance: Reshaping the Industry with Synthetic DataChampak Jhagmag
In this presentation, we will explore the rise of generative AI in finance and its potential to reshape the industry. We will discuss how generative AI can be used to develop new products, combat fraud, and revolutionize risk management. Finally, we will address some of the ethical considerations and challenges associated with this powerful technology.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
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2. Summary
As people in the emerging economies of India and China make
the transition to western standards of living there is an often-
overlooked issue - their water consumption will rise dramatically,
exacerbating an already precarious domestic supply situation.
– China has only 8 percent of the world’s fresh water to meet
the needs of 22 percent of the world’s people.
– In India, urban water demand is expected to double—and
industrial demand to triple—by 2025.
– To support the diets of the additional 1.7 billion people
expected to join the human population by 2030 at today’s
average dietary water consumption would require 2,040 cubic
kilometers of water per year—as much as the annual flow of
24 Nile Rivers.
– According to the International Water Management Institute
the key agriculture regions of the south-western US, Pakistan,
western Australia, southern Africa and southern India are all Contents
already water constrained begging the question how they will 2 Water Update
increase production from this point forward.
3 Crops and Development Compete
Seventy percent of the grain produced in China comes from for Land – 2 Acres per Minute
irrigated land, but the country is seeing its irrigation supply Lost
depleted on three fronts: the diversion of water from rivers
and reservoirs to cities; the depletion of underground supplies 4 U.S. Feeds One Quarter of its
in aquifers; and the increasing pollution caused by rapid Grain to Cars
industrialization. Economically, farms can’t currently compete 4 Energy Analysis of Food
with factories for water. A thousand tons of water produces one Production
ton of wheat, which has a market value of around $300, whereas
the same amount of water used in industry yields an estimated
$14,000 of output - 70 times as much.
The challenge facing China is how to meet the water needs of its
swelling urban and industrial sectors without undermining both
its own agricultural productivity. China is facing a decline in its
capacity to irrigate its crops - signs of which include the drying-up
of rivers and wells all over the northern region of the country. With
its booming economy and huge trade surpluses, China may try to
solve its water shortages by importing more of its food.
1
3. Agriculture Update
water update
Chart 2: IndIa – water supply
According to a report by McKinsey& Company by and demand gap
2030, under an average economic growth scenario
and no efficiency gains, global water requirements Gap between existing supply and projected 1 demand in 2030
Percent of 2030 demand Wat
would increase over 50 percent from 4,500 billion m3 Billio
Size of gap
today (or 4.5 thousand cubic kilometers) to 6,900 Surplus
billion m3. As Chart 1 shows, this is a full 40 percent Moderate (0% to 20%)
above current accessible, reliable supply. Severe (20% to 80%)
Indus Brahmaputra
The driver for this increase is economic growth –
food production and trade. Agriculture accounts WFR 1 2 Ganga
for approximately 3,100 billion m3, or 71 percent Sabarmati Meghna
of global water usage today, and without efficiency Mahi
Narmada Subernarekha
gains will increase to 4,500 billion m3 by 2030. The Tapi Godavari Brahmani-Baitarni
Mahanadhi
key centers of agricultural demand are primarily India Krishna Food
(projected withdrawals of 1,195 billion m3 in 2030), WFR 2 2 EFR 1 2
Pennar Feed
Sub-Saharan Africa (820 billion m3), and China (420 Cauvery Net
EFR 2 2
billion m3).
1 The unconstrained projection of water requirements under a static policy regime
and at existing levels of productivity and efficiency
Chart 1: InCrease In annual water 2 WFR = western-flowing coastal rivers; EFR = eastern-flowing coastal rivers
demand 2005-2030
Gap between existing supply and projected 1 demand in 2030
Change from 2005 Water demand in agriculture
Billion m 3 Percent of 2030 demand Percent Billion m 3
Size of gap 2.4% 1,195
Surplus
China 178 300 54 532 61 979
Moderate (0% to 20%) 361
India 338 89 Severe (20% to 80%)
40 468 58
Rice 311
Sub-Saharan Indus 320 Wheat 656
Africa 28 92 Brahmaputra
440 283 335
Sugar 219 299
Rest of Asia 243 117 80 440 54 Oil crops 152
WFR 1 2 Ganga Maize 236 132 137
N America 181 124 21 326 43 Cotton 87
Sabarmati Meghna 101 29 38 37 61 44
Mahi Other crops 105
Europe 72 100 12 184 Subernarekha
50 28 29 14 74
Narmada
Tapi Brahmani-Baitarni 2005 2020 2030
S America 68 23 180
Godavari
89 Mahanadhi 95
Krishna Municipal and Domestic Food 98 96 95
MENA 6 92
85WFR 2 99 EFR 1 2 47
IndustryPennar Feed 2 4 5
Oceania 21 28 Cauvery Agriculture 109 Net export 5 3 1
7 EFR 2 2
Source: McKinsey Source: McKinsey
1 The unconstrained projection of water requirements under a static policy regime
and at existing levels of productivity and efficiency
2 WFR = western-flowing coastal rivers; EFR = eastern-flowing coastal rivers
2
4. Agriculture Update (continued)
Industrial usage accounts for 16 percent of today’s
Chart 3: ChIna – water supply
global demand and is projected to grow to 22
and demand gap
percent in 2030 - primarily due to China that alone
accounts for 40 percent of the additional industrial
Gap between existing supply and projected 1 demand in 2030
demand worldwide. Percent of 2030 demand
Size of gap Water d
– India: India’s demand in 2030 is expected to Surplus Withdra
reach 1.5 trillion m3 driven by domestic food Moderate (0% to 20%)
demand for a growing population that is moving Severe (20% to 80%)
toward a middle-class diet (see Chart 2). Against Northwest Song
this demand, India’s current water supply is Huang
approximately 740 billion m3. As a result, most
Municip
of India’s river basins could face severe deficit by Domest
2030. Liao Industry
– China: China’s demand in 2030 is expected to
reach 818 billion m3, of which around 50 percent
is from agriculture, 32 percent is from industrial
Agricult
demand (thermal power generation), and the
remaining is domestic (see Chart 3). Current Hai
Huai
supply is around 618 billion m3. Significant
Southwest Southeast
industrial and domestic wastewater pollution Yangtze Pearl
makes the “quality adjusted” supply-demand gap 1 The unconstrained projection of water requirements under a static policy regime
even larger than the quantity-only gap: 21 percent and at existing levels of productivity and efficiency
Gap between existing supply and projected 1 demand in 2030
of available surface water resources nationally are
Percent of 2030 demand Water demand by sector
unfit even for agriculture. Size of gap CAGR
Surplus Withdrawals, billion m 3 2005-30
Moderate (0% to 20%) Percent
818
Crops and development Severe (20% to 80%)
Compete for 1.6%
land – 2 aCres per mInute lost Song 133 2.7
Northwest
667
Huang
The American Farmland Trust recently stated “Every 555
88
minute of every day, we [the US] lose two acres Municipal & 265 2.9
Domestic 68
of agricultural land to development.” Millions of 194
Liao Industry 129
hectares of cropland in the industrial world have been
paved over for development and this trend continues
globally. Quick facts according to the Earth Policy 420 0.6
Agriculture 358 385
Institute:
– In the U.S. each 12 million additional cars Hai
consume roughly 1 million hectares of land in new
Huai
Southwest Southeast 2005 2015 2030
roads, highways, and parking lots. Pearl
Yangtze Source: McKinsey
1 The unconstrained projection of water requirements under a static policy regime
and at existing levels of productivity and efficiency
3
5. Agriculture Update (continued)
– Each U.S. car requires on average 0.07 hectares – If the entire U.S. grain crop were converted to
of paved land for roads and parking space. Thus ethanol it would only supply 18 percent of U.S.
for every five cars added in the US an area the automotive fuel needs.
size of a football field is covered with asphalt. – A 2008 World Bank report unequivocally blamed
– The United States has paved 6.3 million the mandated production of biofuels for the spike
kilometers of roads, enough to circle the earth at in global food prices. According to the report,
the equator 157 times. biofuels increased food prices by 75 percent.
– The U.S. area devoted to roads and parking lots – Agcapita’s research estimates that current biofuel
covers an estimated 16 million hectares almost as targets in the US, the EU, Canada, Japan, Brazil,
much as the 20 million hectares that U.S. farmers India and China alone could require the diversion
plant in wheat. of over 400 million acres of arable land or over
– More and more of the 11 million cars added 10% of the world’s total from food production.
annually to the world fleet of 531 million are being
added in the developing world. energy analysIs of food produCtIon
– If China were one day to achieve the Japanese
ownership rate of one car for every two people, it Discoveries of conventional oil total roughly 2 trillion
would have a fleet of 640 million, compared with barrels, of which 1 trillion have been extracted so
only 13 million today. far. However the first trillion barrels was the low
– Assuming the same paved area per vehicle in cost, technically simple oil while the remaining half
China as in Europe and Japan, a fleet of 640 is the increasingly expensive, and technically difficult
million cars would require paving nearly 13 oil. The transition to more difficult to produce oil
million hectares—most of which would likely be is part of the phenomenon of peaking production.
cropland. This would equal almost half of China’s The prospect of peaking oil production has direct
28 million hectares dedicated to rice production. consequences for food production, as modern
agriculture depends heavily on the use of fossil fuels
u.s. feeds one Quarter of Its graIn to at virtually every stage of the process.
Cars
The five key areas of energy use in food production
The growing use of biofuels appears to have serious are fuel, fertilizer, irrigation, transportation and
consequences for agricultural commodity prices. storage & packaging. Some trends, such as the shift
More than a quarter of the total U.S. grain crop was to zero-tillage, are making agriculture less energy-
turned into ethanol to fuel cars in 2009. Quick intensive, but rising fertilizer use, the spread of farm
biofuel facts: mechanization, and falling water tables are having the
– The amount of grain processed in biofuels has opposite effect.
tripled in the US since 2004.
4
6. Agriculture Update (continued)
– Fuel: U.S. agricultural fuel use has been declining – Transportation: Direct agriculture accounts for
due to a shift to minimum- and zero-till practices only one fifth of the energy used in the U.S.
on roughly two fifths of U.S. cropland. However food system. Transport, processing, packaging,
in many developing countries it is rising as the marketing, and kitchen preparation of food are
transition from draft animals to tractors continues. responsible for the rest. The U.S. food economy
Canada is a world leader in the use of zero-till uses as much energy as the entire economy of
technology. the United Kingdom. The 14 percent of energy
– Fertilizer: Fertilizer accounts for 20 percent of used in the food system to move goods from
U.S. farm energy use. The United States, for farmer to consumer is equal to two thirds of the
example, exports some 80 million tons of grain energy used to produce the food.
per year—grain that contains large quantities – Storage & Packaging: An estimated 16 percent
of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The of food system energy use is devoted to canning,
ongoing export of grain would slowly reduce the freezing, and drying food. Packaging accounts
fertility of U.S. cropland if the nutrients were not for 7 percent of food system energy use. It is not
replaced. uncommon for the energy invested in packaging
– Irrigation: Irrigation requires more energy as to exceed that in the food it contains. As one
water tables fall. In the United States, close to 19 analyst has observed, “An empty cereal box
percent of farm energy use is for pumping water. delivered to the grocery store would cost about
In some states in India where water tables are the same as a full one.”
falling, over half of all electricity is used to pump
water from wells.
5
8. Summary
Complacent, comfortable and sitting on an economic
fault line - that’s what I see when I visualize the
West. Over the next 20 years as the baby boomers
try to retire, the effects of the poor decisions our
society has been making over the last 20 years will
come back to damage the foundation of our affluent
lifestyles. Why?
– Low savings rates – Western economies
are heavily skewed to consumption with
commensurately low savings rates while the
emerging economies are skewed towards capital
accumulation and have extremely high savings
rates. China saves 40% of household disposable
income, the US saves 6%. Only savings can
create capital and because of this our capital pool CONTENTS
is shrinking while the emerging economies’ are
growing. Capital, not consumption, drives growth M3 Subsidizing failure – is this really the
so we should expect growth to continue to slow path to prosperity?
in the west and continue to accelerate in the
emerging world. M3 Debt to GDP
– Inflation – The money supply in the west M3 Inflation the Insidious, Hidden Tax
continues to grow more rapidly than any other
time in history driven by fiscal deficits, currency M4 There’s no God-given gift of a ‘AAA’
interventions and bailouts. Financial assets tend sovereign debt rating
to perform poorly in periods of high inflation and
a large part of western wealth is tied up in these M6 Yuan is now the linchpin of the global
types of investments. financial system
– Debt – Debt to GDP levels are at all time highs M6 US current account deficit with $200
and growing. Unfortunately we have borrowed oil?
to support consumption so we have not created
assets that generate cash flow to service our M6 US Oversight Committee Says...
debts. Our options are tax, repay, default or
inflate. Which do you think is most likely? M7 Who Do Mainstream investment Funds
– Demographics – Aging populations and large Actually Benefit?
unfunded social programs with a diminishing
number of workers to pay for them. On top of this
M1
9. Summary (continued)
we are increasingly competing with younger, well-
educated work forces in emerging economies.
– Energy – Western lifestyles are dependent on low
cost energy with the highest per capita usage on
the planet (think – long commutes, large houses
etc).
How do you protect your retirement in this
environment?
– Protect and enhance your intellectual capital -
continually strive to build unique, high value skills
otherwise your only competitive advantage in the
global market for services will be price.
– Protect the purchasing power of your savings
and assets - place a portion of assets away from
effects of local currency devaluation and inflation
– Energy price hedges
– Under consume and over-save
– Make demographics your ally and invest in
countries that have young populations and high
savings rates
– Start now – don’t delay and don’t rely on the
government or house price appreciation to pay
for it
M2
10. Global Macro Update
SUBSIDIZING FAILURE – IS THIS REALLY THE
PATH TO PROSPERITY?
Despite widespread belief to the contrary, The situation is not much better in most other
government intervention into broad swathes of the western nations. Chart 2 shows the impact of
economy to support “too big to fail” companies unfunded social obligations for ageing populations
is not a positive for future growth. There is an across the developed world.
economic truism that whatever you subsidize you
get more of – hence by subsidizing failure we are
INFLATION THE INSIDIOUS, HIDDEN TAX
ensuring bigger failures in the future and worst of all
penalizing well run businesses. The firms that were Just 3% annual inflation over the course of a 45-
prudently managed leading up to the crisis should year working career can cause a 75% reduction in
have benefited from the demise of their poorly run the purchasing power of your money. Of course,
competitors – in a free economy capital would have inflation has been running much higher than a “mere”
flowed to the profitable businesses rather than the 3%. The US government, like most others, regularly
loss making ones. The fact that this didn’t happen recalibrates its inflation indicators to make the
creates a perverse “if you can’t beat’em, join’em” numbers seem less alarming. Chart 3 highlights the
mentality with respect to risky and imprudent disparity between the CPI-U produced by America’s
business practices. Bureau of Labour Statistics and the SGS Alternate
CPI produced by Shadow Government Statistics
DEBT TO GDP using older, less massaged methodologies.
Up and away into the wild blue yonder…
CHART 2: IMPACT OF AGING
CHART 1: TOTAL US DEBT TO GDP
300
380%
360% 2009 Q3=369.7
250
340%
320% 1933=299.8
300% 2003=301.1 200
280%
260% 150
240%
220% 100
200%
180% 1875=156.4 50
160% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
140%
1916=170.4 Advanced G20 economies, government debt / GDP ratio
120%
100% projected as % GDP
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: BEA, Federal Reserve and Census Bureau Source: IMF
M3
11. Global Macro Update (continued)
As you can see, over the past 20 years, prices have money and inflating asset classes versus the rest of
been rising much faster than government numbers the participants in the economy. The net result is
would have you believe. If you are searching for a that wealth is redistributed from the inflatees to the
possible explanation for such a disparity Marc Faber inflators.
summed it up succinctly when he said, “Never ask
the barber if you need a haircut. Never ask the realtor THERE’S NO GOD-GIVEN GIFT OF A ‘AAA’
if the house you are considering buying is a bargain SOVEREIGN DEBT RATING
at the price offered. And never ask the government to
calculate the rate of inflation when it can save millions As has been predicted by the extensive financial crisis
of dollars in cost-of-living adjustments.” research of Kenneth Rogoff, sovereign credit ratings
are coming under pressure as fiscal deficits grow
In addition to a general erosion of purchasing power, rapidly and tax bases shrink. The following is some
inflation also has another more insidious effect. anecdotal evidence of this trend.
Because inflation does not happen in the aggregate –
does not increase the price of all goods and services – Portugal - “If Portugal wants to avoid a
at the same rate at the same time - inflation benefits downgrade, it is going to have to take meaningful,
the groups who have first access to newly created credible steps to get the deficit under control,”
said Anthony Thomas of Moody’s credit rating
agency. Financial Times - January 10, 2010
– Iceland - Standard & Poor’s put Icelandic debt
CHART 3: CURRENT GOVERNMENTS under negative credit watch after Iceland’s
CPI V. SGS ALTERNATE president blocked a bill of compensation for the
failure of Icesave bank. The agency said “as a
15
CPI-U SGS Alternate CPI result, we could lower our ratings on Iceland by
one to two notches within a month”. Fitch credit
10 rating agency downgraded Iceland’s long-term
Year-to-Year Change (%)
debt rating from BBB- to BB+ citing a “renewed
wave of domestic political, economic and financial
5 uncertainty.” The Telegraph - January 6, 2010
– France and United Kingdom - Fitch Ratings
0 warned Britain and France that they risk losing
their AAA status unless they map out a clear path
to budget discipline over the next year. Telegraph
-5 - December 22, 2009
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
– Mexico - Standard & Poor’s reduced Mexico’s
Source: John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics credit rating one notch to BBB from BBB-plus.
M4
12. Global Macro Update (continued)
The cut came after Fitch cut the country’s credit – Ukraine - Standard & Poor’s cut Ukraine’s
rating one notch to BBB. This was Mexico’s first credit rating two levels to the lowest in Europe.
downgrade in over 10 years. Reuters - December Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency rating was
14, 2009 lowered to CCC+, seven levels below investment
– Dubai - Moody’s said that its rating downgrades grade. S&P left the outlook negative, indicating
reflect the weakening in Dubai’s economy and a possible further cut. Bloomberg - February 25,
the repercussions on its banks’ asset quality and 2009
earning power. Reuters - December 10, 2009 – United States - John Chambers, the chairman
– Spain - Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s credit of Standard & Poor’s sovereign ratings committee
outlook to negative from stable. “Reducing said pressure is building on the “AAA” rating of
Spain’s sizable fiscal and economic imbalances the United States. Chambers said “There’s no
requires strong policy actions, which have not yet God-given gift of a ‘AAA’ rating, and the U.S.
materialized,” according to Standard & Poor’s. has to earn it like everyone else.” Reuters -
BBC News - December 9, 2009 September 17, 2008
– Greece - Fitch cut Greece to BBB+, outlook
negative. Fitch said its move was due to
“concerns over the medium-term outlook for
public finances given the weak credibility of fiscal
institutions and the policy framework in Greece.” CHART 4: GLOBAL SOVEREIGN
Wall Street Journal Online - December 8, 2009 DOWNGRADE WATCH
– United Kingdom and United States - Moody’s
said U.S. and U.K debt ratings may “test the
Aaa boundaries” because public finances are
worsening in the wake of the global financial
crisis. “The deterioration has been pretty
severe,” said Pierre Cailleteau, managing director
of sovereign risk at Moody’s. Bloomberg -
December 8, 2009
– Japan - Moody’s removed the Japanese
government’s last triple-A foreign currency credit
rating. The agency described the move as a
largely technical one but also said Japan was in a
worse position than many other governments in
its top ratings bracket. Reuters - May 18, 2009
M5
13. Global Macro Update (continued)
YUAN IS NOW THE LINCHPIN OF THE GLOBAL
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
The US has been exporting inflation with China’s as underlying commercial real estate prices began
cooperation for over a decade via China’s fixed to drop in late 2008. Once the bailout funds began
exchange rate with the dollar – eventually all the to flow in 2009 REITs recovered rapidly and have
dollars, Euros, loonies etc that China has been more than doubled from the stock market lows of last
absorbing will come home to roost causing global March.
inflation. Although, the Chinese government keeps
the Yuan artificially depressed and appears set to do
so for the immediate future, the Yuan ultimately will be CHART 5: REITS VERSUS S&P 500 INDEX
revalued causing a severe downturn in the currencies
of its trading partners. As part of the revaluation 300 Bloomberg Hotel REIT Index
Bloomberg REIT Index
process China will stop buying US treasuries causing 250
S&P 500 Index
200
interest rates to increase rapidly. Though US demand 150
for Chinese goods might rapidly decelerate this 100
could be offset by a large increase in the domestic 50
0
purchasing power of the Chinese economy and a -50
large reduction in input costs for Chinese companies 27 4/17 5/18 29 6/19 7/10 31 8/21 9/11 10/20 23 11/13 12/4 25 1/15/10
(commodity prices will fall in Yuan terms) – domestic Source: Agorafinancial.com
growth could accelerate in China.
US CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT WITH $200 This presents something of a paradox as the
OIL? NCHREIF commercial real estate price index shows
that underlying commercial property prices have
Assuming 10 million bopd of imports, $200/bbl fallen almost 40% and do not appear to justify such a
oil would add US$ 438 billion per year to the US recovery – in fact the evidence strongly supports the
current account deficit. That would increase the conclusion that conditions are still deteriorating.
deficit by approximately 4% of GDP on top of already
historically high levels – how would the US fund such In the spirit of sublime understatement the latest
a deficit and sustain its way of life? Congressional Oversight Panel (COP) report stated
that the “most serious wave of commercial real
US OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE SAYS, “MOST estate difficulties is just now beginning”. The report
SERIOUS WAVE OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE is an interesting read but here are some excerpts
DIFFICULTIES IS JUST NOW BEGINNING” from the summary for those disinclined to read the
entire document:
Real Estate Investment Trusts (“REITS”) values
increased steadily from 2000 to 2007 then fell sharply
M6
14. Global Macro Update (continued)
“Over the next few years, a wave of commercial space, have exerted a powerful downward pressure
real estate loan failures could threaten on the value of commercial properties.
America‘s already-weakened financial system.
The Congressional Oversight Panel is deeply A significant wave of commercial mortgage defaults
concerned that commercial loan losses could would trigger economic damage that
jeopardize the stability of many banks, particularly could touch the lives of nearly every American.“
the nation‘s mid-size and smaller banks, and that as
the damage spreads beyond individual banks that Is this prediction overly pessimistic? Japan’s
it will contribute to prolonged weakness throughout experience with a commercial real estate collapse is
the economy.” informative. Chart 6 shows that that land prices fell
87% over the last 20 years from their peak in 1990.
Between 2010 and 2014, about $1.4 trillion in
commercial real estate loans will reach the WHO DO MAINSTREAM INVESTMENT FUNDS
end of their terms. Nearly half are at present ACTUALLY BENEFIT?
―underwater! – that is, the borrower owes more
than the underlying property is currently worth. Michael Lee Chin founder of mutual fund company
Commercial property values have fallen more than AIC Limited recently stated, “Let’s look at the history.
40 percent since the beginning of 2007. Increased If over the past 14 years you had invested $10,000
vacancy rates, which now range from eight percent in the best CI mutual fund, that would have earned
for multifamily housing to 18 percent for office you $41,000, had you owned CI stock that derives its
buildings, and falling rents, which have declined 40 money from revenue generated from that fund, that
percent for office space and 33 percent for retail $10,000 [would be] worth $164,000.”
According to Lee-Chin, the best AGF fund over the
last 14 years was the AGF precious metals funds
CHART 6: JAPANESE LAND PRICES - $10,000 invested in that would now be worth
$35,000. But owning AGF stock would have given
(Trillion yen, seasonally adjusted) (Mar. 2000=100)
800
you $56,000. Investors Group’s best fund would be
700
worth $26,000, [while] shares in IG would be worth
$63,000.” Summary return data:
600
500
– CI mutual fund - $41,000 - return 22%
400
down
– CI stock - $164,000 - annual return 22%
Last seen 87%
300
– AGF mutual fund - $35,000 - annual return 9%
in 1973 200
– AGF stock - $56,000 - annual return 13%
100
– Investors Group mutual fund - $26,000 - annual
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
0 return 7%
– Investors Group stock - $63,000 - annual return
Sources: Cabinet Office, Japan Real Estate Institute
14%
M7
15. dIsClaImer:
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