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DESIGNING  SYSTEMS  TO  MITIGATE  
PREDICTABLE  SURPRISES
A C C E L E R A T E    2 0 1 7
Predictable
Adjective:
Able to be foretold or declared in advance
Expected, especially on the basis of previous or known
behaviour
http://www.dictionary.com
Surprise
Noun:
A completely unexpected
occurrence,appearance, or statement
http://www.dictionary.com
THE  OBVIOUS
THE  HUMOROUS  
IN  OUR  EVERY  DAY  LIVES
NOT  JUST  IN  HEAVY  INDUSTRIES  
BUT  IN  GLOBAL  FINANCE
THE  WORST  CASE  SCENARIOS
LOST  BUSINESS  
OPPORTUNITIES
SO  WHAT  WOULD  UTOPIA  
LOOK  LIKE
THE  RIGHT  INFORMATION
When  its  needed
Presented  how  you  want
Highlighting  what’s  important      
THE  RIGHT  CULTURE
Teams  ready  to  take  action  
The  actions  clearly  defined
Support  of  Management
RPM
Recognise  
Prioritise
Mobilise
The  Harvard  Business  Review  
article  by  Michael  Watkins  &  
Max  Bazerman describe  their  
approach  for  businesses  to  
address  predictable  surprises  
RECOGNISE
How do you deal with
Not enough or too much information
Blind spots
Business or information silos
PRIORITISE  
How do we
Evaluate the risk
Assess its potential severity
Determine the appropriate course of action
MOBILISE  
How do we
Create a culture of action
Ensure support from all levels of the business
Promote personalaccountability
SO  WHAT’S  POSSIBLE?
Big Data IOT
Search Predictive Analytics
Cognitive computing AI
IOT
WITHOUT  CULTURAL  CHANGE  
NOTHING  WILL  HAPPEN
As  Mike  Mullane discussed  this  requires  a  culture  of:
Personal  leadership
Organisational  leadership
DOES  THIS  FIT  WITH  AGILE
Bi-­Modal/Dev  Ops,  MVP,  Prototyping,  Fail  Fast
“Better  is  the  enemy  of  good  enough”
YES
Failure  is  built  into  the  method
Recognition,  prioritisation  &  mobilisation  are  at  its  foundation.  
IT’S  EQUALLY  RELEVANT  IN  A  BAU  
STATE  WHERE  BETTER  IS  BETTER  
Best  practice  standards
Continuous  improvement
Resistance  to  the  normalisation  of  deviance.
HOW  DO  YOU  LEAD  YOUR  BUSINESS  
TO  AVOID  SURPRISES
RECOGNISE
Systems that allow massive sets of data to be analysed
Analytics that help focus on what needs to be known
Promote and enable investigation and inquiry
PRIORITISE  
Formal processes to evaluate risk
Understand the context
Delegate authority to take action
MOBILISE  
System  that  provides  information  across  silos,  teams  or  distance.  
Culture  of    Leadership,  Trust,  Accountability  
Celebrate  Action
Small  changes  in  systems  and  culture  can  make  a  difference
start  now

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