Slides

1. ABTA
Travel Finance
Conference
February 2021

2. Roadmap
12 April
Domestic overnight stays
Travel Task Force reports
17 May
International travel resumes
21 June
All restrictions lifted
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3. Roadmap
work with UK representatives of the travel sector
adopt a clear international framework with standards that provide
consistency for passengers and industry alike
provide a further week’s notice to individuals and businesses
before making changes
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Supportive pledges from government

4. The vaccine impact
Source: Our World in Data, Oxford University – Feb 21
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USA
Turkey
Spain
France
Italy
12.8%
6.5%
3.8%
3.8%
3.5%
UK 25.4%
UK roll-out well ahead of popular holiday destinations

5. Recovery by destination
Dependence
on
tourism
Vaccine rollout success
High
High
Low
Low
Quick
Slow Messy
Messy
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6. Optimistic “pent-up demand” evidence #1
Source: ONS website Dec 2020
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Household savings ratio is through the roof

7. Optimistic “pent-up demand” evidence #2
Source: IATA reports Feb 2021
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The Dubai example

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January trading – the myth

9. January trading – the reality
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Source: Similarweb data to end of January 2021
Source: Barclaycard spending data report, Feb 2021
82% 87%
Spending on airlines Spending with travel agents
78%
Travel and leisure web searches

10. Running on fumes
• Refund Credit
Notes
• Loans
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• Holiday pay
• Overdrafts and
revolving credit
facilities
• Deferred VAT and
other taxes
Balance sheets have been severely weakened

11. Equity injections
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Equity

12. Pain throughout the chain
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Airlines
Tour operators
Merchant processors
Regulators
Insurers
Consumers
Lenders
Agents

13. THE TRAVEL TRADE CONSULTANCY
www.thettc.co.uk
Martin Alcock
martin@thettc.co.uk
Linkedin.com/in/martin-alcock
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