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TTC
INSIGHTS
Martin Alcock
April 2021
On returning to the UK
Green Amber Red
Passenger locator form Yes Yes Yes
Pre-departure test Yes Yes Yes
Managed quarantine at hotel No No 10 days
Self-isolation No 10 days N/A
Test to release N/A On day 5 No
PCR test On or before day 2 On or before day 2 On or before day 2
Further PCR test No Day 8 Day 8
The Green watchlist
A list of countries most at risk of moving from green to amber
Short term timetable
17 May 31 July 1 October
Before 17th May
• Confirm International Travel opening date of 17th
• Publish Green, Amber and Red country lists
• Publish Tourism Recovery Plan
• Publish COVID 19 Passenger Charter
28 June
Government review rules in the light of:
• Vaccine roll-out success
• Hospitalisations and deaths still reducing
• No surge in infection rates
• No new Variants of Concern
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more insights
Questions to be answered
- Which countries will be on which list?
Vaccination rate
Prevalence of
Variants of
Concern
Genomic
sequencing
capabilities
Infection rate
Zap for
more insights
Questions to be answered
- Can price of testing be reduced?
Source: Which Report, March 2021
Questions to be answered
- What role will “Digitisation” play
Enable residents to prove their COVID-19 status for tests and, if
necessary, vaccines for outbound travel to a third country.
Continued international engagement to develop a seamless future travel
system based on global standards, and secure interoperable digital
solutions for vaccine and testing certification
We will play a leading role in development of international standards
around a digital travel certification system that can enable travellers
to evidence their COVID-19 status to demonstrate they meet public
health entry requirements
The NHS is developing a digital and non-digital solution for
individuals to demonstrate COVID-19 status
Zap for
more insights
Questions to be answered
- What will The COVID 19 Passenger Charter cover?
• “Clarity to consumers will be cemented through a new
COVID-19 passenger charter”
• “….clearly sets out consumer rights and responsibilities
when booking travel while COVID-19 measures remain in
place.”
• “We will also outline these rights and responsibilities to
the travel industry.”
• “We expect the industry to be flexible in recognition of
the impact the pandemic has on consumers’ bookings”
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more insights
Safe Sustainable Robust
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more insights
Consumer confidence growing
- Fastest growth amongst oldest and youngest
Zap for
more insights
Mass unemployment has been avoided*
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more insights
%
* So far
Households have money to spend
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1963
Q1
1964
Q1
1965
Q1
1966
Q1
1967
Q1
1968
Q1
1969
Q1
1970
Q1
1971
Q1
1972
Q1
1973
Q1
1974
Q1
1975
Q1
1976
Q1
1977
Q1
1978
Q1
1979
Q1
1980
Q1
1981
Q1
1982
Q1
1983
Q1
1984
Q1
1985
Q1
1986
Q1
1987
Q1
1988
Q1
1989
Q1
1990
Q1
1991
Q1
1992
Q1
1993
Q1
1994
Q1
1995
Q1
1996
Q1
1997
Q1
1998
Q1
1999
Q1
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Q1
2018
Q1
2019
Q1
2020
Q1
Source: ONS Household Savings Ratio Mar 2021
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more insights
Spending intentions in the next 12 months
Source: PwC Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2021
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more insights
of those surveyed who travelled abroad for leisure in 2019 feel comfortable
going on a leisure trip abroad between June-September 2021
51%
54%
of 2019 international leisure travellers surveyed say they would be likely
to travel if there were no restrictions in either the UK or abroad
Source: DfT/ Ipsos MORI Travel Survey, March 2021
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more insights
Long awaited industry rallying cry
“I’m not advising people
Rt Hon Grant Shapps
9 April 2021
not to book to go away”
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more insights
28%
of 2019 international leisure travellers surveyed say they would be likely
to travel abroad if they had to quarantine in their own home for 10
days on arrival to the UK
of UK adults surveyed agree that they will only travel abroad when they feel
totally confident that the restrictions won’t change
68%
Source: DfT/ Ipsos MORI Travel Survey, March 2021
Zap for
more insights
In 2021, IATA predict total flights will be
Of 2019 levels
47%
Polarisation of bookings
Stuff in the middle
Last minute
bookings
Long term
planning
Zap for
more insights
Cash cycle: Pre-pandemic
2 months 2 months
Card payments on
standard 3 day
settlement
Book Depart
Final
balance
Return
Zap for
more insights
Cash cycle: Now
<1 month 1 month
Card payment
settlement extended
Depart Return
Final
balance
Book
Zap for
more insights
The squeeze on liquidity
Later booking profile
Deteriorating card settlement terms
Commercial pressure to collect balances later
But also…
Refund claims
Final balance delinquencies
Security and collateral for regulators, insurers etc
Servicing debts
Supply chain defaults
Zap for
more insights
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more insights
THE TRAVEL TRADE CONSULTANCY
www.thettc.co.uk
Thanks for watching!
Zap for
more insights
Martin Alcock

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Analysing the travel landscape in 2021

  • 2. On returning to the UK Green Amber Red Passenger locator form Yes Yes Yes Pre-departure test Yes Yes Yes Managed quarantine at hotel No No 10 days Self-isolation No 10 days N/A Test to release N/A On day 5 No PCR test On or before day 2 On or before day 2 On or before day 2 Further PCR test No Day 8 Day 8 The Green watchlist A list of countries most at risk of moving from green to amber
  • 3. Short term timetable 17 May 31 July 1 October Before 17th May • Confirm International Travel opening date of 17th • Publish Green, Amber and Red country lists • Publish Tourism Recovery Plan • Publish COVID 19 Passenger Charter 28 June Government review rules in the light of: • Vaccine roll-out success • Hospitalisations and deaths still reducing • No surge in infection rates • No new Variants of Concern Zap for more insights
  • 4. Questions to be answered - Which countries will be on which list? Vaccination rate Prevalence of Variants of Concern Genomic sequencing capabilities Infection rate Zap for more insights
  • 5. Questions to be answered - Can price of testing be reduced? Source: Which Report, March 2021
  • 6. Questions to be answered - What role will “Digitisation” play Enable residents to prove their COVID-19 status for tests and, if necessary, vaccines for outbound travel to a third country. Continued international engagement to develop a seamless future travel system based on global standards, and secure interoperable digital solutions for vaccine and testing certification We will play a leading role in development of international standards around a digital travel certification system that can enable travellers to evidence their COVID-19 status to demonstrate they meet public health entry requirements The NHS is developing a digital and non-digital solution for individuals to demonstrate COVID-19 status Zap for more insights
  • 7. Questions to be answered - What will The COVID 19 Passenger Charter cover? • “Clarity to consumers will be cemented through a new COVID-19 passenger charter” • “….clearly sets out consumer rights and responsibilities when booking travel while COVID-19 measures remain in place.” • “We will also outline these rights and responsibilities to the travel industry.” • “We expect the industry to be flexible in recognition of the impact the pandemic has on consumers’ bookings” Zap for more insights
  • 8. Safe Sustainable Robust Zap for more insights
  • 9. Consumer confidence growing - Fastest growth amongst oldest and youngest Zap for more insights
  • 10. Mass unemployment has been avoided* Zap for more insights % * So far
  • 11. Households have money to spend 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 1963 Q1 1964 Q1 1965 Q1 1966 Q1 1967 Q1 1968 Q1 1969 Q1 1970 Q1 1971 Q1 1972 Q1 1973 Q1 1974 Q1 1975 Q1 1976 Q1 1977 Q1 1978 Q1 1979 Q1 1980 Q1 1981 Q1 1982 Q1 1983 Q1 1984 Q1 1985 Q1 1986 Q1 1987 Q1 1988 Q1 1989 Q1 1990 Q1 1991 Q1 1992 Q1 1993 Q1 1994 Q1 1995 Q1 1996 Q1 1997 Q1 1998 Q1 1999 Q1 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 Source: ONS Household Savings Ratio Mar 2021 Zap for more insights
  • 12.
  • 13. Spending intentions in the next 12 months Source: PwC Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2021 Zap for more insights
  • 14. of those surveyed who travelled abroad for leisure in 2019 feel comfortable going on a leisure trip abroad between June-September 2021 51% 54% of 2019 international leisure travellers surveyed say they would be likely to travel if there were no restrictions in either the UK or abroad Source: DfT/ Ipsos MORI Travel Survey, March 2021 Zap for more insights
  • 15. Long awaited industry rallying cry “I’m not advising people Rt Hon Grant Shapps 9 April 2021 not to book to go away” Zap for more insights
  • 16. 28% of 2019 international leisure travellers surveyed say they would be likely to travel abroad if they had to quarantine in their own home for 10 days on arrival to the UK of UK adults surveyed agree that they will only travel abroad when they feel totally confident that the restrictions won’t change 68% Source: DfT/ Ipsos MORI Travel Survey, March 2021 Zap for more insights
  • 17. In 2021, IATA predict total flights will be Of 2019 levels 47%
  • 18. Polarisation of bookings Stuff in the middle Last minute bookings Long term planning Zap for more insights
  • 19. Cash cycle: Pre-pandemic 2 months 2 months Card payments on standard 3 day settlement Book Depart Final balance Return Zap for more insights
  • 20. Cash cycle: Now <1 month 1 month Card payment settlement extended Depart Return Final balance Book Zap for more insights
  • 21. The squeeze on liquidity Later booking profile Deteriorating card settlement terms Commercial pressure to collect balances later But also… Refund claims Final balance delinquencies Security and collateral for regulators, insurers etc Servicing debts Supply chain defaults Zap for more insights
  • 23. THE TRAVEL TRADE CONSULTANCY www.thettc.co.uk Thanks for watching! Zap for more insights Martin Alcock