A brief introduction to those Complex Systems Phenomena known to exist within major organisations, large social groups and complex projects & programs which have the potential to either promote or neutralise material risks
A brief introduction to known complex systems phenomena which influence risk
1. A brief introduction to those
Complex Systems Phenomena known to exist within
major organisations, large social groups and complex
projects & programs which have the potential to either
promote or neutralise material risks.
Also referred to as;
The Eight Habits of Highly Complex Systems
2. Complex Systems Phenomenon #1
“The Butterfly Effect”
States that a seemingly insignificant change in one area of
a complex system can ripple and compound to create
momentous, possibly even uncontrollable, impacts
elsewhere within the system
3. Complex Systems Phenomenon #2
“The Edge of Chaos”
States that a complex system is at all times no more
than a transition or two away from descending into
wild disorder (chaos) and thus should be considered to
be an inherently chaotic entity
4. Complex Systems Phenomenon #3
“Sum of Parts”
States that a complex system is a highly integrated
entity whose behavioural outcomes are so much
more momentous and impactful than the total
contribution of each individual part
5. Complex Systems Phenomenon #4
“Emergence”
States that a highly complex system will create new
emergent behaviours, properties and characteristics
that are not an outcome of design
6. Complex Systems Phenomenon #5
“Strange Attractors”
States that the primary contributing agents which
exist within a complex system, will not necessarily
engage with each other through logical means of
attraction (i.e. cause & effect)
7. Complex Systems Phenomenon #6
“Fractals”
States that although numerous repeatable patterns
and relationships may exist within a complex
system, their behavioural outcomes will rarely be
consistent, logical or repeatable
8. Complex Systems Phenomenon #7
“Non-linearity”
States that a complex system is a highly
dynamic, evolutionary and unpredictable entity
and thus past performance is not a reliable
indicator of future performance
9. Complex Systems Phenomenon #8
“Signals”
States that complex systems are driven by the
signals which are generated by their internal
contributing components continually interacting
with and adapting to each other, and their
surrounding environment
10. So what?
Complex systems simply do not behave in the same
manner as rational ordered systems and for this
reason conventional risk management practices
need to evolve so as to meet the challenges of a
significantly more complex world
11. Once you look at risk with a
complex systems mindset, you will never look
at risk any other way, ever again
ComplexusIntelligent Risk Thinking
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