"A Brief History of Data-Drivenness", Fabian Stelzer

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This document provides a brief history of data-driven decision making from 800 BC to the present. It describes how decisions have evolved from divination-driven decisions open to human interpretation in 800 BC, to more systematic and empirical approaches using information and quantitative methods over time. It discusses key developments like the I Ching in 800 BC, "moral algebra" by Benjamin Franklin in the 1770s, the introduction of probability theory and decision frameworks, and the rise of decision support systems and big data/machine learning approaches in recent decades. The document questions whether AI may eventually automate and improve upon many human decisions.

Data & Analytics

A Brief History of  
Data-Drivenness
@fabianstelzer

Divination < Interpretation > Decision
manual-opaque
manual

Divination < Interpretation > Decision
systematic manual

Divination < Interpretation > Decision
Bogus manual

1670s - Leibniz
Instrumentum Arithmeticum
0
1

Should I really do this?
PROS CONS
“Moral Algebra”
1770s - Ben Franklin
Qualitative —> Quantitative

Information < Interpretation > Decision
systematic-quantitativeempirical-manual

Information < Interpretation > Decision
Probability Theory 
Heuristics
Decision Frameworks
NPV
…

*Builds rational
machines.*
*Shows humans
aren’t rational*
1950s - Herbert Simon

“Increase decision quality with data”
1970s - IBM

1. inconclusive impact on decision quality
2. interesting impact on shrinking decisional effort
DSSs - did they work?
;-)

“Productivity
Paradox”, 1987
“You can see the computer age everywhere
but in the productivity statistics.” - Robert Solow

Big Data + Machine Learning =  
Decisive AI?

AI-automation of most/many
decisions to minimize ‘human
factor’?
Will Larry Page ﬁre himself when an AI
would be the better CEO?

59
75
Visual Excitingness
Visual Clarity
3s
Qualitatative —> Quantitative
eyequant.com
@fabianstelzer
@eyequant
THX!

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