8

TOPIC
THE ROLE OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
IN VIETNAMESE ECONOMIC GROWTH
1

Table of Contents
LIST OF TABLES & FIGURES................................................................................................................. 3
I - RATIONALE & RESEARCH QUESTION ...................................................................................... 4
II - LITERATURE REVIEW & CRITICAL DISCUSSION ............................................................. 6
2.1. The concept of FDI & economic growth ..................................................................................... 6
2.1.1. FDI.................................................................................................................................................. 6
2.1.2. Economic growth........................................................................................................................ 6
1. 2.2. The relationship between FDI & economic growth.................................................... 7
2.2.1. Direct relationship between FDI & economic growth..................................................... 7
2.2.2. Indirect relationship between FDI & economic growth via employment.................. 8
2.2.3. Indirect relationship between FDI & economic growth via exporting ....................... 8
2.2.4. Empirical researches about the impacts of FDI on economic growth in Vietnam .. 8
2.3. Empirical analysis............................................................................................................................... 9
2.3.1. Variables selection..................................................................................................................... 9
2.3.2. Regression models ...................................................................................................................10
2.3.3. Descriptive statistics................................................................................................................10
2.3.4. Pearson’s correlation matrix..................................................................................................13
2.3.5. Ordinary least squares (OLS) tests......................................................................................13
2.3.6. Result of testing hypotheses..................................................................................................17
III - CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................18
REFERENCES...............................................................................................................................................20
2

LIST OF TABLES & FIGURES
Table 1: Three FDI relevant theories........................................................................................... 6
Table 2: Three economic growth theories.................................................................................. 7
Table 3: Summary of relevant empirical studies...................................................................... 9
Table 4: Description of variables................................................................................................10
Table 5: Descriptive statistics......................................................................................................10
Figure 1: Number of FDI projects ..............................................................................................11
Figure 2: FDI Net inflow...............................................................................................................12
Figure 3: FDI as percentage of GDP..........................................................................................12
Figure 4: Economic growth, unemployment rate & exporting...........................................12
Table 6: Correlation matrix ..........................................................................................................13
Table 7: Regression results (Model 1).......................................................................................14
Table 10: Regression results (Model 4) ....................................................................................16
Table 11: Regression results (Model 5) ....................................................................................17
Table 12: Results of hypotheses testing in the study.............................................................17
3

I - RATIONALE & RESEARCH QUESTION
FDI is not a new phenomenon in Vietnam because for years, FDI has been an important
driver for Vietnamese economic growth. However, the impacts of FDI on Vietnamese
economy is still questionable (Vu, 2008). Moreover, the topic about the role of FDI in
Vietnamese economic growth is chosen by the researcher by two other rationales, which are
(i) the number of conducted studies on FDI as a main driver of economic growth does not
match to the growth rate of Vietnamese FDI
1
; and (ii) the necessity of better & holistically
utilising FDI (Freeman, 2004). Thus, the research is expected to contribute additional
literatures about the impacts of FDI on Vietnamese economic growth, recommend a better
utilisation of FDI & assist Vietnamese companies in being aware of the FDI’s influences on
the local economy.
Based on the gathered data from 1990 to 2015, the notable three research questions of the
study are raised as follows:
Question 1: What is the literature review of FDI & economic growth?
Whereas, the concept of FDI & economic growth will be discussed at first. Then
the relationships (in both direct & indirect manners) between FDI & economic will be
investigated. Some outstanding empirical studies about the influence of FDI on economic
growth in Vietnam will be introduced.
Question 2: How has FDI influenced on Vietnamese economic growth? Introducing
original empirical study.
Based on the review of literature findings, the relationship between FDI &
economic growth will be analysed through three approaches, which are (i) direct
relationship between FDI & economic growth; (ii) indirect relationship between FDI &
economic growth via employment; & (iii) indirect relationship between FDI & economic
growth via importing.
Accordingly, there will be five hypotheses will be tested, which are:
- Hypothesis 1: FDI influenced significantly on Vietnamese economic growth
- Hypothesis 2: FDI influenced significantly on Vietnamese employment
- Hypothesis 3: FDI influenced significantly on Vietnamese exporting activities
1
The relevant studies about the influence of FDI on economic growth in Vietnam will be discussed in detail in
the latter part (Part 2.2.4)
4

- Hypothesis 4: Employment influenced significantly on Vietnamese economic
growth
- Hypothesis 5: Exporting influenced significantly on Vietnamese economic
growth
Question 3: What are recommendations for Vietnamese Government & local firms in
relation to the research?
5

II - LITERATURE REVIEW & CRITICAL DISCUSSION
2.1. The concept of FDI & economic growth
2.1.1. FDI
According to Iqbal et al. (2014), FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) is defined as the
investments of foreign organisations from their home countries to local business projects in
the host country in the forms of capital, technology, managerial involvement, etc. Three
notable theories used when analysing the impacts of FDI on the host countries, which are (i)
dynamic macroeconomic theory, (ii) economic geography, & (iii) gravity theory. A more
detailed discussion of those theories is presented in Table 1.
Table 1: Three FDI relevant theories
THEORY DESCRIPTION IMPACTS ON THE
HOST COUNTRIES
Dynamic
- Multinational companies can use FDI as
a sustainable & indispensable strategy
macroeconomic
- FDI can be adjusted to adapt to macrotheory
environment
- FDI can be transferred from home
Economic countries to host countries due to
geography innovation
theory - FDI can represent an important factor
creating international production
- FDI can happen at a large scale among
countries with closer variables (e.g.,
geographic, economic, cultural factors,
Gravity theory etc.)
- The outcome of FDI would depend on
the gap between the home & host
countries.
FDI is considered as the
driver of production,
exporting & employment.
FDI can expand economic
borders of host countries;
thus increase the
production locally &
abroad.
Not clear, depending
Source: Beghum et al. (2011)
2.1.2. Economic growth
According to Seyoum et al. (2015), economic growth is the growth rate of the economic
improvement of a country (i.e., in term of production - GDP). Economic growth is
determined by lots of factors. Three notable theories (i.e., (i) the absolute & comparative
advantages; (ii) Solow-Swan theory; and (iii) Malthus prediction theory) are chosen to
discussed, especially their relationship to FDI, presented as in Table 2.
6

Table 2: Three economic growth theories
THEORY DESCRIPTION IMPACTS ON ECONOMIC
GROWTH
Absolute &
comparative
advantage
theories
Solow-Swan
theory
Malthus
prediction
theory
Thanks to the advantage of possessing
natural resources & other production
inputs, some countries can sell their
goods & services at a lower price, thus
achieve gain in trading.
The determinants of countries’
economic growth can be labour,
technology, etc. rather than production
inputs.
Economic growth forecasting has to deal
with several significant limitations (e.g.,
environmental uncertainties).
FDI can offer comparative
advantages to host countries
in term of filling in
technology gaps.
FDI can foster host countries to
enhance their technologies &
labour’s skills due to (i) the
fierce competition among local
& foreign firm; and (i) the higher
requirement of labour’s skills
Depending if pressure from
obsolete technologies & large
population might be overcome
Source: Lanz et al (2016)
2.2. The relationship between FDI & economic growth
2.2.1. Direct relationship between FDI & economic growth
FDI has brought lots of abnormal contribution to economic growth due to (i) increasing
capital accumulation; & (ii) improving total factor productivity (Seyoum et al., 2015). In the
first contribution – capital increase, companies could expand their businesses, launch new
projects / production chains, etc. Consequently, a positive result – an increase in GDP can be
achieved. Related to the second contribution – productivity improvement, four main factors
supporting the contribution are tougher competition, higher quality of human resources, more
advanced technologies transferring, & enhanced remuneration level (Bashir et al., 2014).
Together with positive impacts, several negative impacts of FDI on economic growth have
also pointed out by economists. According to Seyoum et al (2015), six notable negative
impacts are that (i) the benefit of FDI is not distributed equally; (ii) the fiercer competition &
foreign firms’ potential monopolisation threaten the local firms; (iii) the existence of
inappropriate technology; (iv) the damages of national natural resources increase; (v) the
negative impacts on income distribution & local culture; and (vi) the existence of political
problem.
7

2.2.2. Indirect relationship between FDI & economic growth via employment
Declining unemployment rate is an important indicator of increasing economic strength.
According to Abor & Harvey (2008), in Ghana, there were more than 76,000 jobs created in
the period from 1995 to 2002 due to FDI. Generally, an easily observed contribution of FDI
to economic growth, especially in host countries is creating more jobs & decreasing
unemployment rate (Iwasaki et al., 2011). However, in term of transferring advanced
technologies to host countries, FDI is criticised to not benefit all local labour. Because, given
the existence of new technologies, job nature & task characteristic could be adjusted & result
in more using machines to replace human efforts. Thus, this downsizing impacts can outpace
the job creation. Moreover, with better remuneration offered, FDI companies can attract
talents from local companies.
2.2.3. Indirect relationship between FDI & economic growth via exporting
FDI is recognised with the capability of boosting exporting for both foreign & local firms.
Because, to the foreign firms, they entered into host countries & orientated exporting. To the
local firms, given the openness of FDI, the loosen trade restrictions when entering abroad
markets will assist the growth of exporting. Moreover, local firms can learn from FDI firms
in term of how to successfully export to other countries (Iwasaki et al., 2011). Because export
is a crucial component & driver of GDP & countries’ economic growth, FDI can contribution
indirectly to GDP via export.
Another positive view of FDI and exporting performance is being the motivation for
international M&A. In the study of Anwar & Nguyen in 2011, horizontal M&A with local
firms was analysed as the popular transaction for FDI firms to increase market share & better
operate. However, some studies (e.g., Lutz et al, 2003) indicate that those horizontal M&As
did not always work well because of the gaps relating technologies, company size, financial
strength, etc among companies involved in M&A. A notable factor influencing the efficiency
of FDI company in term of exporting is exchange rate fluctuation (Temiz & Gökmen, 2011).
2.2.4. Empirical researches about the impacts of FDI on economic growth in Vietnam
The relevant empirical studies about the influence of FDI on economic growth in Vietnam
are summarised as in Table 3.
8

Table 3: Summary of relevant empirical studies
STUDY SAMPLE IMPACTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
Anwar & Nguyen
(2010)
Data of more FDI positively influenced the economic growth
than 42,000 via export, especially thanks to the horizontal
companies in M&A between foreign & local firms.
2000
Vu et al
(2008)
Wang &
Balasubramanyam
(2011)
1990 – 2004
By industries
Data of nearly
60
cities/provinces
in 2000
FDI positively but weakly influenced in primary
industry.
FDI positively & significantly influenced in
secondary industry, especially oil & gas sector
Mixed result was recognised for the tertiary
industry, significant results achieved in only
transportation & real estate sectors.
FDI had insignificant evidence of direct
influence on economic growth
FDI was proved to have a significant role in
indirectly influencing economic growth via
employment
Vu
(2008)
Vo & Nguyen
(2011)
Tran et al
(2010)
Athukorala & Tran
(2012)
1988 - 2002 FDI did not contribute directly to economic
growth, but influenced indirectly economic
growth via labour productivity.
1997 - 2008 FDI contributed to economic growth positively,
significantly & indirectly via exporting
Data of more FDI contributed to economic growth positively,
than 60 significantly, indirectly & indirectly via
cities/provinces exporting employment
from 1995 to
2006
2000 - 2009 FDI contributed to economic growth positively,
significantly & indirectly via employment &
exporting
2.3. Empirical analysis
2.3.1. Variables selection
Four chosen primary variables in the research are (i) FDI inflow (FDI, FDIM, FDIP); (ii)
unemployment rate (UNE); (iii) exporting (EXPG, EXPP) & (iv) economic growth (GROW).
The data of those variables is collected from WB data & GSOV
2
for the period from 1990 to
2015. Although Vietnam started to open for FDI since 1986, the chosen starting year of the
2
General Statistics Office of Vietnam
9

analysing period is 1990 because the data of FDI before 1990 is not fully available &
ambiguous. The ideal sample size is 26; however, for some variables, the sample size is less
than 26 due to the unavailability of data. The detail variables used in the research are
presented as in the following table.
Table 4: Description of variables
2.3.2. Regression models
Given seven variables chosen & pre-stated five hypothesis, there are six regression models
tested in the research, which are:
 LnGROW = a+b1*LnFDI+b2*LnFDIP+b3*LnFDIM

 LnEXPG = a+b1*LnFDI+b2*LnFDIM+b3*LnFDIP

 LnEXPP = a+b1*LnFDI+b2*LnFDIM+b3*LnFDIP

 LnGROW = a+b1*LnUNE+b2*LnEXPG+b3*LnEXPP

 LnUNE = a+b1*LnFDI+b2*LnFDIM+b3*LnFDIP
2.3.3. Descriptive statistics
Table 5: Descriptive statistics
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For the analysing period (1990-2015), the average economic growth (GROW) in Vietnam is
6.8% with the minimum & maximum value of 4.8% & 9.5%. In term of FDI, the ratio of FDI
to GDP is not very high (5.86% on average). Exporting contributed significantly on the
country’s GDP, accounting for 56.2% of the GDP on average. Vietnam also had a high
percentage of trade over GDP (118.4% on average). The detailed discussion on four big
variables – economic growth, FDI, unemployment & exporting will be presented in the
following part.
Figure 1: Number of FDI projects
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Source: Gso.gov.vn (2016)
Except for three years from 1995 to 1998 & in 2008, in the rest period, Vietnam experienced
positive growth in number of FDI projects, especially since 2011. The cumulative growth of
FDI projects is 1,294% in 26-year-period. Both net inflow FDI to Vietnam & the ratio of net
inflow FDI to GDP have been fluctuated. At the first stage (1990-1994) when Vietnam
initially engaged, the ratio of FDI to GDP increased sharply, from 2.8% to 11.9%; however,
in the second stage, the ratio reduced significantly, from 11.9% in 1994 to 3.6% in 2006.
Since the starting point of the global financial crisis, the ratio rose considerably from 3.6% in
2006 to 9.7% in 2008 – however, still much lower than the level of 11.9% in 1994. Recently,
the ratio showed sign of small recovering.
11

Figure 2: FDI Net inflow
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000 -
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Figure 3: FDI as percentage of GDP
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Figure 4: Economic growth, unemployment rate & exporting
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999200
0
2001200
2
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
201
5
40
Year
100
30 80
20 60
%
10 40
0 20
-10 0
EXPP UNE EXPG GROW
During 26-year-period, GDP growth rate was stable between 5% to 10% while the
unemployment rate was stably kept in the range [1.8% ; 2.6%]. In the other hand, the
movement of annual exporting growth rate was quite dramatic in the range [-5% ; 30%]. The
most disappointed growth rate (-5%) was in 2009 due to the global financial crisis. However,
12

when viewing exporting as a percentage of GDP, the changes becomes less dramatic. The
increasing ratio of exporting over GDP (1990: 12.92%

2015: 89.78%) indicate the
increasingly enhanced position of exporting in Vietnam’s economy.
2.3.4. Pearson’s correlation matrix
Pearson’s correlation matrix is the chosen method to analyse the bilateral relationship
between a pair of variables. Pearson’s correlation matrix aims at identifying whether two
variables positively / negatively correlate based on the following rule of thumb:
- If absolute value of the correlation is less than 0.3, the relationship is negligible
- If absolute value of the correlation is in the range of (0.3 ; 0.5), two variables weakly
correlated
- If absolute value of the correlation is in the range of (0.5 ; 0.7), two variables moderately
correlated
- If absolute value of the correlation is more than 0.7, two variables strongly correlated
The correlation matrix of seven variables is presented as in the following table.
Table 6: Correlation matrix
LNEL LNEXPG LNEXPP
LNFD
I LNFDIM LNFDIP LNGC
LNGRO
W
LNEL 1
LNEXPG 0.503 1
LNEXPP -0.64 -0.574 1
LNFDI -0.689 -0.62 0.891 1
LNFDIM -0.926 -0.567 0.794 0.768 1
LNFDIP -0.479 -0.099 -0.15 -0.103 0.447 1
LNGC 0.107 0.421 -0.697 -0.702 -0.251 0.559 1
LNGROW 0.114 0.225 -0.571 -0.286 -0.333 0.233 0.426 1
The correlation matrix presents the correlations of all possible pairs created using seven
variables. Notable relationships are:
- LnGROW negligibly correlates with LnEL, LnEXPG, LnFDI, LnFDIP because the value
of correlation less than 0.3; however, moderately correlated with LnEXPP, LnFDIM &
LnGC.
- LnGROW negatively correlates with LnFDI & LnFDIM; however, positively correlates
with LnFDIP.
- The correlations between LnEL & LnFDIM / between LnEXPP & LnFDI is quite high.
2.3.5. Ordinary least squares (OLS) tests
13

Direct contribution of FDI to economic growth
The fact that FDI directly contributes to Vietnamese economic growth is statistically tested
via regressing the following model:
Model 1: LnGROW = a+b1*LnFDI+b2*LnFDIP+b3*LnFDIM
Based on the result from Eviews, the regression is statistically meaningful with the Prob (F-
statistic) of 0.000 & the R-squared of 54.6%. Thus, given the significance level of 5%, the
model could explain 54.6% changes in Vietnamese economic growth. This indicates that FDI
is an important driver of economic growth. Moreover, both LnFDI & LnFDIP related
positively to LnGROW, however, LnFDIM had a negative relationship with LnGROW. The
finding - significant relationship between FDI & economic growth – agrees with most of the
previous studies.
Table 7: Regression results (Model 1)
Indirect contribution of FDI to economic growth via exporting
The fact that FDI indirectly contributes to Vietnamese economic growth via exporting is
statistically tested via regressing the following models:
Model 2: LnEXPG = a+b1*LnFDI+b2* LnFDIP+b3* LnFDIM
Model 3: LnEXPP = a+b1*LnFDI+b2*LnFDIM+b3*LnFDIP
Based on the result from Eviews, the regression of Model 2 is statistically meaningful with
the Prob (F-statistic) of 0.018 & the R-squared of 38.7%. However, given the significance
level of 5%, all the p-values of t-test of the model’s independent variables are higher than
0.05. Thus, three FDI dimensions are not significant drivers of the country’s annual growth of
exporting.
14

In the other hand, if considering export activities in the form as a percentage of GDP (i.e.,
model 3) LnFDIP and LnFDIM are strongly significant with p-value of 0.000. Model 3 has a
relatively high explanatory power with Prob (F-statistic) of 0.000 & R-squared of 95.9%.
Analysing the direction of relationship, the dependent variable – LnEXPP has a negative
relationship with LnFDIP, but also has a positive relationship with LnFDIM.
The regression result partially indicates that exporting & FDI are two opposite sides. The
finding does not agree with the evidences provided by (i) Vu et al. (2008) indicating the role
of FDI in improving export via M&A activities & (ii) Iwasaki et al. (2011) indicating the
capability of FDI to leverage exporting activities of both foreign & domestic firms.
Indirect contribution of FDI to economic growth via employment
Next, in order to analyse the contribution of FDI to Vietnamese economic growth through
employment, model 4 is regressed as follows.
15

Model 4: LnUNE = a+b1*LnFDI+b2*LnFDIM+b3*LnFDIP
The model is not statistically meaningful with the Prob (F-statistic) of 0.282 (higher than the
significance level 0.05) & a low R-squared of 17.0%. All three independent variables is also
not statistically meaningful with the p-value of higher than the significance level 0.05.
Therefore, it is likely that the relationship between FDI & economic growth via employment
is not statistically evident based on the Vietnam’s data. While other studies have empirical &
literatural evidences about this relationship, such as:
- Ivlevs & Melo (2007): FDI enhance economic growth via employment.
- Vu (2008): FDI makes no change to unemployment rate & FDI does not enhance
economic growth via employment.
Indirect contribution of FDI to economic growth via both exporting & employment
In this part, the impact of FDI through both exporting & unemployment on Vietnamese
economy is assessed by regression model 5.
Model 5: LnGROW = a+b1*LnUNE+b2*LnEXPG+b3*LnEXPP
Overall, the model is statistically meaningful with the Prob (F-statistic) of 0.028 (lower than
the significance level 0.05); however the explanatory power of the model is low with the R-
squared of 37.3%. Among three independent variables, only LnEXPP is statistically
meaningful with the p-value of 0.0052 (lower than the significance level 0.05). Other two
independent variables – LnUNE & LnEXPG is statistically insignificant with high p-value.
Therefore, it is likely that the negative relationship between exporting & economic growth is
proved based on the data.
16

Moreover, all of three variables have negative relationship with economic growth. In other
words, the influences of FDI on economic growth via exporting & employment are expected
to be negative. The finding agrees with (i) the Malthus prediction theory & gravity model
(which indicate that FDI can boost the economy growth through exporting under some
certain conditions); and (ii) Enimola (2011) (which was against the positive relationship
between FDI & exporting / economic growth).
2.3.6. Result of testing hypotheses
With five hypotheses stated at the beginning of the research, the empirical analysis conducted
via five models in Part 2.3.6, indicates the testing results of those hypotheses, summarised as
follows:
Table 12: Results of hypotheses testing in the study
Hypotheses Results
HA1: FDI influenced significantly on Accepted
Vietnamese economic growth
HA2: FDI influenced significantly on Rejected
Vietnamese employment
HA3: FDI influenced significantly on Partially accepted (EXPP)
Vietnamese exporting activities
HA4: Employment influenced significantly on Rejected
HA5: Exporting influenced significantly on Partially accepted (EXPP but negative)
17

III - CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
The main topic of the research is the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnamese
economic growth based on the data from 1990 to 2015. Basically, the works up to now
successfully answered the research’s first two questions: (i) What is the literature review of
FDI & economic growth? & (ii) How has FDI influenced on Vietnamese economic growth?
Wheras, the impacts were discussed in both direct & indirect aspects (i.e. through export &
employment). The statistical methods (e.g., descriptive statistics, OLS tests) were performed
by Eviews. The main results of the research are statistically proved the following judgments:
(i) FDI did influence significantly on Vietnamese economic growth.
(ii) FDI did not influence significantly on Vietnamese employment
(iii) FDI did influence significantly on Vietnamese exporting activities
(iv) Employment did not influence significantly on Vietnamese economic growth
(v) Exporting did influence significantly on Vietnamese economic growth in a negative way
Through the findings in the case study of Vietnam, the third question - What are
recommendations for Vietnamese Government & local firms in relation to the research, will
be solved in this part.
Based on the literature reviews, the research lightened some aspects relating to attracting
FDI, allocating FDI & getting benefits from FDI in Vietnam. Notably, Vietnam is
recommended to invest actively in education to enhance the employees’ quality & offer
favourable policy to domestic firms; and narrow in the technology difference between the
domestic & foreign firms.
Based on the empirical evidences, Vietnam’s Government needs to be aware of both
favourable & unfavourable characteristics of FDI instead of remaining overconfident of the
promising opportunities of economic growth primarily depending on FDI. Especially, given
the positive relationship between FDI & Vietnam’s economic growth, it is recommended that
Vietnam should attract & efficiently allocate FDI to achieve benefits from it. There are three
specific recommendations provided, which are:
 Vietnam’s Government should offer favourable policies relating to the procedures for
foreign companies to invest in Vietnam, thus, create more employment for
Vietnamese
18

 Vietnam’s Government should spend more budgets on education & management
training to enhance the quality of domestic labour force & managers

 Vietnam’s Government should encourage the collaboration between Vietnam’s
companies & foreign investors to lower conflicts & differentials.

 Vietnam’s Government should allocate FDI in both effective & efficient manner, and
focus on the undeveloped economic areas to enhance the balance of FDI’s positive
effect among economic sectors.
19

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