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National identity predicts public
health support during a pandemic
Jay Van Bavel, New York University @jayvanbavel: psyarxiv.com/ydt95
Lessons from a pandemic
1. People do not appreciate
the risks they run,
2. It goes against human
nature for people to shut
themselves up in rigid
isolation as a means of
protecting others,
3. People often unconsciously
act as a continuing danger
to themselves and others
Lessons from behavioral science
Van Bavel et al., NHB: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0884-z
Leadership, cooperation & social identity
Van Bavel et al., NHB: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0884-z
The potential benefits of national identity
Van Bavel et al., NHB: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0884-z
The potential harm of national narcissism
Van Bavel et al., NHB: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0884-z
Global study on national identity & health
• Open call for collaborators from around the globe
• Survey translated & administered in 67 countries
• Final sample size = 46,500
• Self-report measures (out of 10) of:
• National identity (M = 8.04, α = .72)
• National narcissism (M = 5.36, α = .82)
• Political ideology (M = 5.36, α = .82)
• Physical distancing (M = 8.61, α = .74)
• Physical hygiene (M = 8.21, α = .72)
• Policy support (M = 8.30, α = .81)
• Multi-level models (HLM)
Van Bavel et al., under review: https://psyarxiv.com/ydt95
Global study on national identity & health
Van Bavel et al., under review: https://psyarxiv.com/ydt95
National identity predicts health support
National identity predicts health support
National identity predicts health support
• National identity predicts all measures of public health support
(including personal hygiene, spatial distancing, and public policy)
• This is not explained by malignant forms of national identity
(national narcissism) or political ideology (conservatism/liberalism)
A tale of two leaderships
A tale of two leaderships
A tale of two leaderships
A tale of two leaderships
−40
0
40
80
% Reduction
−40
0
40
80
% Reduction
Predicted % Reduction in Visiting Non−Essential Ser vices
by County Partisan Lean
Red: Trump lean in 2016 vote
Blue: Clinton lean in 2016 vote
Gollwitzer et al., in press, NHB: https://psyarxiv.com/t3yxa/
• Using geotracking of 15 million
smartphones per day
• Counties that voted for Trump
over Clinton in 2016, exhibited
14% less social distancing
• Reduced distancing predicted
increased COVID-19 infections &
mortality growth rates
Social Identity may be key to collective health
• National identity predicts all
measures of public health support
• Polarization can undercut public
health behavior, especially when
identity leaders downplay risks
• Leaders who rally people around a
common (“Us”) may be more
effective in ensuring public health
during a pandemic
https://icsmp-covid19.netlify.app/
• Led to 31 additional pre-registered projects with secondary analyses
• Upon publication, all data will be made publicly available
Authors
Jay J. Van Bavel1 ✉, Aleksandra Cichocka2,3, Valerio Capraro4, Hallgeir Sjåstad5, John B. Nezlek6,7, Tomislav Pavlović8, Mark Alfano9, Michele J.
Gelfand10, Flavio Azevedo11, Michèle D. Birtel12, Aleksandra Cislak6, Patricia L. Lockwood13,14, Robert M. Ross9, Kristina K. Stoyanova15, Koen
Abts16, Elena Agadullina17, David M. Amodio1,18, Matthew A. J. Apps14, John Jamir Benzon R. Aruta19, Sahba Besharati20, Alexander Bor21,
Becky L. Choma22, Charles Crabtree23, William A. Cunningham24, Koustav De25, Christian T. Elbaek21, Waqas Ejaz26, Harry Farmer12, Daniel
Flichtentrei27, Andrej Findor28, Renata Franc29, Biljana Gjoneska30, Estrella Gualda31, Yusaku Horiuchi23, Toan L. D. Huynh32, Mostak A. Imran33,
Agustin Ibanez34,35,36,37,38, Jacob Israelashvili39, Katarzyna Jasko40, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz41, Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko42, Andre Krouwel18,
Yordan Kutiyski18,43, Michael Laakasuo44, Claus Lamm45, Caroline Leygue46, Ming-Jen Lin47, Mohammad S. Mansoor48, Antoine Marie49,50,
Lewend Mayiwar51, Honorata Mazepus41, Cillian McHugh52, Panagiotis Mitkidis21, Andreas Olsson53, Tobias Otterbring21,54, Dominic J. Packer55,
Anat Perry39, Michael Bang Petersen21, Arathy Puthillam56, Julian Riano-Moreno57,58, Tobias Rothmund11, Petra C. Schmid59, Catalin Augustin
Stoica60, Drozdstoy St. Stoyanov15, Shruti Tewari61, Bojan Todosijević29, Manos Tsakiris62,63, Hans H. Tung46, Meltem Yucel64, Edmunds Vanags65,
Madalina Vlasceanu66, Andrew J. Vonasch67, Yucheng Zhang68, Mohcine Abad50, Narin Akrawi69, Hamza Alaoui Mdarhri50, Benedict G Antazo19,
Ceren F. Ay5, Mouhamadou El Hady Ba70, Sergio Barbosa71, Brock Bastian72, Maria Paula Bernal Zárate57, Michał Białk73, Ennio Bilancini74,
Natalia Bogatyreva17, Leonardo Boncinelli75, Jonathan E. Booth76, Sylvie Borau77, Ondrej Buchel78, C. Daryl Cameron79, Chrissie F. Carvalho80,
Hom Nath Chalise81, Xiaojun Cheng82, Chiara Cerami83,84, Kate Cockcroft20, Jane R. Conway85, Mateo A. Córdoba-Delgado86, Chiara Crespi87,
Marie Crouzevialle59, Jo Cutler14, Marzena Cypryańska6, Justyna Dabrowska88, Aspara K. Dangol89, Michael A. Daniels90, Victoria H. Davis24,
Pamala N. Dayley91, Sylvain Delouvée92, Ognjan Denkovski18, Guillaume Dezecache93, Nathan A. Dhaliwal90, Alelie B. Diato94, Uwe
Dulleck95,96,97, Jānis Ekmanis65, Tom W. Etienne43, Hapsa H. Farhana33, Fahima Farkhari11, Kristijan Fidanovski13, Shona L. Fraser20, Jonathan A.
Fugelsang98, Jessica Gale67, E. Begoña García-Navarro31, Prasad Garladinne61, Oussama Ghajjou99, Theofilos Gkinopoulos12, Kurt Gray100,
Siobhán M. Griffin52, Bjarki Gronfeldt2, June Gruber101, Eran Halperin39, Elizabeth Harris1, Matej Hruška28, Guanxiong Huang102, Matthias F. C.
Hudecek103,104, Ozan Isler95, Simon Jangard53, Frederik J. Jørgensen21, Frank J. Kachanoff100, Apsara Katuwal Dangol89, Oleksandra Keudel105,
Lina Koppel106, Ranju G. Lama89, Josh Leota107, Eva Lermer97,104, Neil Levy9, Chunyun Li76, Juliana Linares Puerta86, Elizabeth U. Long24, Darragh
McCashin108, Alexander L. Metcalf109, Igor Mikloušić29, Panagiotis Mitkidis21,110, Asako Miura111, Juliana Molina-Paredes86, César Monroy-
Fonseca112, Elena Morales-Marente31, Rafał Muda113, Annalisa Myer64, Kyle Nash107, Tarik N. Nash50, Jonas P. Nitschke45, Matthew S. Nurse96,
Yohsuke Ohtsubo114, Victoria Oldemburgo de Mello24,80, Yafeng Pan53, M. Soledad Palacios-Galvez31, Zsófia Papp115, Philip Pärnamets1,53,
Mariola Paruzel-Czachura116, Zoran Pavlović8, Michael M. Pitman20, Joanna Pyrkosz-Pacyna117, Steve Rathje118, Ali Raza101, Kasey Rhee23,
Gabriel G. Rêgo119, Claire E. Robertson1, Iván Rodríguez-Pascual31, Octavio Salvador-Ginez120, Waldir M. Sampaio119, Gaia C. Santi83, Natalia
Santiago Tovar57, David A. Savage95,121, Julian A. Scheffer79, Philipp Schönegger122, Enid M. Schutte20, Andy Scott107, Madhavi Sharma89, Pujan
Sharma123, Ahmed Skali124, Brent Strickland49, David T. Schultner18, Clara A. Stafford125, Dragan T. Stanojevic8, Anna Stefaniak126, Anni
Sternisko1, Jeffrey P. Thomas76, Gustav Tinghög106, Benno Torgler95, Iris J. Traast18, Raffaele Tucciarelli62, Michael Tyrala127, Nick D. Ungson55,
Mete S. Uysal128, Jan-Willem van Prooijen18, Dirk Van Rooy96, Christian von Sikorski129, Daniel Västfjäll106, Peter P. J. L. Verkoeijen42, Joana B.
Vieira53, Alexander C. Walker98, Jennifer Watermeyer20, Erik Wetter130, Robin Willardt59, Adrian D. Wojcik3, Kaidi Wu131, Yuki Yamada132,
Onurcan Yilmaz133, Kumar Yogeeswaran67, Caroline-Therese Ziemer11, Rolf A. Zwaan42, & Paulo S. Boggio119.

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National identity predicts public health support during a pandemic

  • 1. National identity predicts public health support during a pandemic Jay Van Bavel, New York University @jayvanbavel: psyarxiv.com/ydt95
  • 2. Lessons from a pandemic 1. People do not appreciate the risks they run, 2. It goes against human nature for people to shut themselves up in rigid isolation as a means of protecting others, 3. People often unconsciously act as a continuing danger to themselves and others
  • 3. Lessons from behavioral science Van Bavel et al., NHB: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0884-z
  • 4. Leadership, cooperation & social identity Van Bavel et al., NHB: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0884-z
  • 5. The potential benefits of national identity Van Bavel et al., NHB: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0884-z
  • 6. The potential harm of national narcissism Van Bavel et al., NHB: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0884-z
  • 7. Global study on national identity & health • Open call for collaborators from around the globe • Survey translated & administered in 67 countries • Final sample size = 46,500 • Self-report measures (out of 10) of: • National identity (M = 8.04, α = .72) • National narcissism (M = 5.36, α = .82) • Political ideology (M = 5.36, α = .82) • Physical distancing (M = 8.61, α = .74) • Physical hygiene (M = 8.21, α = .72) • Policy support (M = 8.30, α = .81) • Multi-level models (HLM) Van Bavel et al., under review: https://psyarxiv.com/ydt95
  • 8. Global study on national identity & health Van Bavel et al., under review: https://psyarxiv.com/ydt95
  • 9. National identity predicts health support
  • 10. National identity predicts health support
  • 11. National identity predicts health support • National identity predicts all measures of public health support (including personal hygiene, spatial distancing, and public policy) • This is not explained by malignant forms of national identity (national narcissism) or political ideology (conservatism/liberalism)
  • 12. A tale of two leaderships
  • 13. A tale of two leaderships
  • 14. A tale of two leaderships
  • 15. A tale of two leaderships −40 0 40 80 % Reduction −40 0 40 80 % Reduction Predicted % Reduction in Visiting Non−Essential Ser vices by County Partisan Lean Red: Trump lean in 2016 vote Blue: Clinton lean in 2016 vote Gollwitzer et al., in press, NHB: https://psyarxiv.com/t3yxa/ • Using geotracking of 15 million smartphones per day • Counties that voted for Trump over Clinton in 2016, exhibited 14% less social distancing • Reduced distancing predicted increased COVID-19 infections & mortality growth rates
  • 16. Social Identity may be key to collective health • National identity predicts all measures of public health support • Polarization can undercut public health behavior, especially when identity leaders downplay risks • Leaders who rally people around a common (“Us”) may be more effective in ensuring public health during a pandemic
  • 17. https://icsmp-covid19.netlify.app/ • Led to 31 additional pre-registered projects with secondary analyses • Upon publication, all data will be made publicly available
  • 18. Authors Jay J. Van Bavel1 ✉, Aleksandra Cichocka2,3, Valerio Capraro4, Hallgeir Sjåstad5, John B. Nezlek6,7, Tomislav Pavlović8, Mark Alfano9, Michele J. Gelfand10, Flavio Azevedo11, Michèle D. Birtel12, Aleksandra Cislak6, Patricia L. Lockwood13,14, Robert M. Ross9, Kristina K. Stoyanova15, Koen Abts16, Elena Agadullina17, David M. Amodio1,18, Matthew A. J. Apps14, John Jamir Benzon R. Aruta19, Sahba Besharati20, Alexander Bor21, Becky L. Choma22, Charles Crabtree23, William A. Cunningham24, Koustav De25, Christian T. Elbaek21, Waqas Ejaz26, Harry Farmer12, Daniel Flichtentrei27, Andrej Findor28, Renata Franc29, Biljana Gjoneska30, Estrella Gualda31, Yusaku Horiuchi23, Toan L. D. Huynh32, Mostak A. Imran33, Agustin Ibanez34,35,36,37,38, Jacob Israelashvili39, Katarzyna Jasko40, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz41, Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko42, Andre Krouwel18, Yordan Kutiyski18,43, Michael Laakasuo44, Claus Lamm45, Caroline Leygue46, Ming-Jen Lin47, Mohammad S. Mansoor48, Antoine Marie49,50, Lewend Mayiwar51, Honorata Mazepus41, Cillian McHugh52, Panagiotis Mitkidis21, Andreas Olsson53, Tobias Otterbring21,54, Dominic J. Packer55, Anat Perry39, Michael Bang Petersen21, Arathy Puthillam56, Julian Riano-Moreno57,58, Tobias Rothmund11, Petra C. Schmid59, Catalin Augustin Stoica60, Drozdstoy St. Stoyanov15, Shruti Tewari61, Bojan Todosijević29, Manos Tsakiris62,63, Hans H. Tung46, Meltem Yucel64, Edmunds Vanags65, Madalina Vlasceanu66, Andrew J. Vonasch67, Yucheng Zhang68, Mohcine Abad50, Narin Akrawi69, Hamza Alaoui Mdarhri50, Benedict G Antazo19, Ceren F. Ay5, Mouhamadou El Hady Ba70, Sergio Barbosa71, Brock Bastian72, Maria Paula Bernal Zárate57, Michał Białk73, Ennio Bilancini74, Natalia Bogatyreva17, Leonardo Boncinelli75, Jonathan E. Booth76, Sylvie Borau77, Ondrej Buchel78, C. Daryl Cameron79, Chrissie F. Carvalho80, Hom Nath Chalise81, Xiaojun Cheng82, Chiara Cerami83,84, Kate Cockcroft20, Jane R. Conway85, Mateo A. Córdoba-Delgado86, Chiara Crespi87, Marie Crouzevialle59, Jo Cutler14, Marzena Cypryańska6, Justyna Dabrowska88, Aspara K. Dangol89, Michael A. Daniels90, Victoria H. Davis24, Pamala N. Dayley91, Sylvain Delouvée92, Ognjan Denkovski18, Guillaume Dezecache93, Nathan A. Dhaliwal90, Alelie B. Diato94, Uwe Dulleck95,96,97, Jānis Ekmanis65, Tom W. Etienne43, Hapsa H. Farhana33, Fahima Farkhari11, Kristijan Fidanovski13, Shona L. Fraser20, Jonathan A. Fugelsang98, Jessica Gale67, E. Begoña García-Navarro31, Prasad Garladinne61, Oussama Ghajjou99, Theofilos Gkinopoulos12, Kurt Gray100, Siobhán M. Griffin52, Bjarki Gronfeldt2, June Gruber101, Eran Halperin39, Elizabeth Harris1, Matej Hruška28, Guanxiong Huang102, Matthias F. C. Hudecek103,104, Ozan Isler95, Simon Jangard53, Frederik J. Jørgensen21, Frank J. Kachanoff100, Apsara Katuwal Dangol89, Oleksandra Keudel105, Lina Koppel106, Ranju G. Lama89, Josh Leota107, Eva Lermer97,104, Neil Levy9, Chunyun Li76, Juliana Linares Puerta86, Elizabeth U. Long24, Darragh McCashin108, Alexander L. Metcalf109, Igor Mikloušić29, Panagiotis Mitkidis21,110, Asako Miura111, Juliana Molina-Paredes86, César Monroy- Fonseca112, Elena Morales-Marente31, Rafał Muda113, Annalisa Myer64, Kyle Nash107, Tarik N. Nash50, Jonas P. Nitschke45, Matthew S. Nurse96, Yohsuke Ohtsubo114, Victoria Oldemburgo de Mello24,80, Yafeng Pan53, M. Soledad Palacios-Galvez31, Zsófia Papp115, Philip Pärnamets1,53, Mariola Paruzel-Czachura116, Zoran Pavlović8, Michael M. Pitman20, Joanna Pyrkosz-Pacyna117, Steve Rathje118, Ali Raza101, Kasey Rhee23, Gabriel G. Rêgo119, Claire E. Robertson1, Iván Rodríguez-Pascual31, Octavio Salvador-Ginez120, Waldir M. Sampaio119, Gaia C. Santi83, Natalia Santiago Tovar57, David A. Savage95,121, Julian A. Scheffer79, Philipp Schönegger122, Enid M. Schutte20, Andy Scott107, Madhavi Sharma89, Pujan Sharma123, Ahmed Skali124, Brent Strickland49, David T. Schultner18, Clara A. Stafford125, Dragan T. Stanojevic8, Anna Stefaniak126, Anni Sternisko1, Jeffrey P. Thomas76, Gustav Tinghög106, Benno Torgler95, Iris J. Traast18, Raffaele Tucciarelli62, Michael Tyrala127, Nick D. Ungson55, Mete S. Uysal128, Jan-Willem van Prooijen18, Dirk Van Rooy96, Christian von Sikorski129, Daniel Västfjäll106, Peter P. J. L. Verkoeijen42, Joana B. Vieira53, Alexander C. Walker98, Jennifer Watermeyer20, Erik Wetter130, Robin Willardt59, Adrian D. Wojcik3, Kaidi Wu131, Yuki Yamada132, Onurcan Yilmaz133, Kumar Yogeeswaran67, Caroline-Therese Ziemer11, Rolf A. Zwaan42, & Paulo S. Boggio119.

Editor's Notes

  1. The COVID-19 pandemic represents a massive global health crisis. Because the crisis requires large-scale behaviour change and places significant psychological burdens on individuals, insights from the social and behavioural sciences can be used to help align human behavior with the recommendations of epidemiologists and public health experts. Here we review experimental and correlational data from a selection of research topics relevant to pandemics, including work on navigating threats, social and cultural influences on behaviour, science communication, moral decision-making, leadership, and stress and coping. In each section, we note the nature and quality of prior research, including uncertainty and unsettled issues. We identify several insights for effective response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and also highlight important gaps researchers should move quickly to fill in the coming weeks and months.
  2. Over 100 years ago, Science magazine published a paper on lessons from the Spanish Flu pandemic (Soper, 1919). The paper argued that three main factors stand in the way of prevention: (1) people do not appreciate the risks they run, (2) it goes against human nature human nature for people to shut themselves up in rigid isolation as a means of protecting others, and (3) people often unconsciously act as a continuing danger to themselves and others. Our paper provides some insights from the past century of work on related issues in the social and behavioural sciences that may help public health officials mitigate the impact of the current pandemic. Specifically, we reviewed research on threat perception, social context, science communication, aligning individual and collective interests, leadership, and stress and coping. These are a selection of relevant topics, but readers may also be interested in work on psychological reactance (Byrne, & Hart, 2009; Burgoon, Alvaro, Grandpre, & Voulodakis, 2002), collective emotions and social media (Garcia & Rime, 2019; Brady et al., 2020), and the impact of economic deprivation and unemployment (Brooks-Gunn & Klebanov, 1994; Jin, Shah, & Svoboda, 1995).
  3. Existing research can be leveraged to formulate effective public health messages, identify cultural and structural factors related to disease spread, sustain prosocial motivations in large societies, manage anxiety and loneliness, and motivate compassion for at-risk populations. We review topics that are broadly relevant to numerous stages of the current pandemic to help policy-makers, leaders, and the public better understand how to manage risk, reduce social conflict, improve communication, enhance cooperation, model effective leadership, and provide social and emotional support . Because of overlap with sentences before and after, we can cut this sentence if needed for words.
  4. New Zealand Deaths per 100,000 = 0.49 US Deaths per 100,000 = 57.97
  5. Thirteen new infections were confirmed in New Zealand on Tuesday, taking the country’s total number of cases since the pandemic began to 1,293, with 22 deaths. This compares with the U.S. tally of more than 5.2 million cases and 170,000 deaths.
  6. New Zealand Deaths per 100,000 = 0.49 US Deaths per 100,000 = 57.97
  7. Using the geotracking data of 15 million smartphones per day, we show that counties that voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016 exhibited 14% less physical distancing between March and May, 2020. Partisanship was a stronger predictor of physical distancing than numerous other factors, including counties’ median income, COVID-19 cases, and racial and age make-up. Contrary to our predictions, this finding strengthened over time and remained when stay-at-home orders were active. Additionally, counties’ consumption of conservative media (Fox News) predicted reduced physical distancing. Finally, reduced physical distancing in pro-Trump counties was associated with subsequently higher COVID-19 infection and fatality growth rates
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