- Brexit refers to the UK's potential withdrawal from the European Union. A referendum was held on June 23, 2016 for British citizens to vote on whether the UK should remain or leave the EU. - The EU operates as a single market between 28 countries, facilitating trade between members with no tariffs. The UK benefits economically from its EU membership and access to the single market. - Leaving the EU could impact UK trade. The UK would need to negotiate new trade deals with countries like Canada to replace those negotiated by the EU on behalf of members. There are also risks around currency devaluation and uncertainty during the transition process.

1. BREXIT ANDTHE
UNITED KINGDOM –
JULY 23, 2019
By: PaulYoung, CPA, CGA

2. PaulYoung - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – SupplyChain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. ■ This presentation is one perspective on Brexit. It is not the only view. People are more
than welcome to visit other sites like BEA, Stats Canada,OECD, Banks, etc.

4. Agenda
■ What is Brexit?
■ EU
■ UK Impact
■ Canada and UKTrade
■ JustinTrudeau and Brexit
■ GDP Growth
■ Risks
■ Blog – Brexit
■ United Kingdom issues (high-level)

5. What is
Brexit?
■ Brexit is an abbreviation of "British exit"
that mirrors the term Grexit. It refers to
the possibility that Britain will withdraw
from the European Union.The country
will hold an in-out referendum on its EU
membership on June 23.

6. European
Union
■ Operating as a single market with 28 countries, the EU is a major
world trading power.
■ EU economic policy seeks to sustain growth by investing in
transport, energy and research – while minimising the impact of
further economic development on the environment.
Measuring the EU’s economy
■ The EU's economy — measured in terms of the goods and services
it produces (GDP) — is now bigger than the US's: EU GDP in 2014:
€13,920,541 million
Trade
■ With just 7% of the world’s population, the EU's trade with the rest
of the world accounts for around 20% of global exports and
imports.
■ Around two-thirds of EU countries’ total trade is done with other
EU countries.
■ Trade has been hit by the global recession, but the EU remains the
world’s largest player accounting for 16.4% of global imports in
2011.The EU is followed by the United States with 15.5% of all
imports, and China with 11.9%.The EU was also the biggest
exporter, accounting for 15.4% of all exports – compared with
13.4% for China and the 10.5% for the United States.

7. United Kingdom
■ Trade
– The EU is a single market in which no tariffs are imposed on imports and exports between member states. "More than 50 per cent of our exports go to EU countries,"
says Sky News, "and our membership allows us to have a say over how trading rules are drawn up."
– Britain also benefits from trade deals between the EU and other world powers. "The EU is currently negotiating with the US to create the world's biggest free trade
area," says the BBC, "something that will be highly beneficial to British business."
– Britain risks losing some of that negotiating power by leaving the EU, but it would be free to establish its own trade agreements.
– Ukip leader Nigel Farage believes Britain could follow the lead of Norway, which has access to the single market but is not bound by EU laws on areas such as
agriculture, justice and home affairs. But others argue that an "amicable divorce" would not be possible.
■ Membership Fees
– Leaving the EU would result in an immediate cost saving, as the country would no longer contribute to the EU budget. Last year, Britain paid in £13bn, but it also
received £4.5bn worth of spending, says Full Fact "so the UK's net contribution was £8.5bn". That's about 7 per cent of what the Government spends on the NHS
each year.
■ Currency
– GBP

8. Canada and UK
Trade
■ There is $25B in total trade between Canada and the UK
■ Exit from EU would mean UK would need a FIPA/Trade deal with
Canada
■ Nearly 7 per cent of Newfoundland's exports and more than 5 per
cent of Ontario’s exports go to the U.K., NBF found.That’s roughly
double the Canadian provincial average of 3 per cent

9. Brexit and
Trudeau
Trade deals do not just happen! http://international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-
accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/chile-chili/fta-ale/background-contexte.aspx?lang=eng BTW: Joe
Pickerill called out Scheer for discussing trade with the UK. UK finalized their exit from EU. Scheer is
doing the prudent approach which is to build relationships with the UK.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/exporting-and-importing/pm-hopeful-scheer-off-london-
lay-groundwork-canada-u-k-free-trade-deal-209321/
“Joe Pickerill, director of communications for Francois-Philippe Champagne, said his boss has
spoken several times with British Secretary of State Liam Fox over the past 14 months to lay
the groundwork for a bilateral deal.
In the meantime, said Pickerill, “We have a deal, it’s called CETA,” referring to the
Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between Canada and the European Union.
Until the U.K. leaves the EU, that deal remains in force and there can be no formal negotiation
on a new Canada-U.K. deal.
“Perhaps the Leader of the Official Opposition needs a briefing,” said Pickerill.”
Here are the facts missing from Pickerill
 UK official exit is March 29, 2019 - http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887
 CETA was completed by CPC and almost screw up by the Liberals -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wherry-freeland-ceta-1.3824374
 It takes time to complete a deal as such Scheer reaching out is part of relationship
building including completing any trade and investment deal with United Kingdom.
 Liberals will always take credit for others’ people work as their supporters will eat it up!
 Scorecard – July 2019 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-liberals-
2015-election-platform-major-planks-analysis-and-commentary

10. GDP
AND UK
Source - Scotiabank

11. UK issues
■ United Kingdom wants control over their borders – Point-based visa system -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/freylindsay/2019/06/27/boris-johnson-proposes-australian-style-visa-
system-which-doesnt-mean-much/#553f4ca83191 (Canada has used a similar process.The point system
needs to align with jobs of today and the future -
https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/worklife/careers/a15854767/best-jobs-in-the-uk/
■ United Kingdom needs to fixed the income tax system - https://taxinsights.ey.com/archive/archive-
news/united-kingdom-highlights-of-budget-2018-documents.aspx
■ United Kingdom needs to fix its’ business competitiveness -
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/16/britain-falls-eighth-place-world-economic-forum-
global-competitiveness-index
■ Social/Income Distribution needs to undertake value for money -
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/20/amyas-morse-head-national-audit-office-ministers-
waste-taxpayers-billions
■ Post-BrexitTrade agreements will need to be negotiated - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47213842

12. Next Leader Boris Johnson

13. Risk
■ UK GBP
– De-valuation against the EU Dollar
■ Trade Deals
– UK would have to negotiate trade/FIPA Deals
■ UK could follow the Norway model which would allow them to leverage trade
agreements, but not be part of EU.The would be negotiations required to strike a
deal between EU and UK