NWM Financial Advisor Mark Therriault and NWM CIO Rob Edel examine current events and trends that may impact investors and assess the effectiveness of several wealth management strategies.
On Thursday, May 11, 2017, Nicola Wealth Management hosted their annual Strategic Outlook event featuring presentations by NWM Chairman and CEO John Nicola and Chief Investment Officer Rob Edel.
Northwest Mutual manages over $4.8 billion in assets under management and was founded in 1994, with offices in Vancouver, Toronto, Kelowna, and Richmond. The company has a history of innovation in its investment strategies, launching new funds focused on real estate, mortgages, bonds, and other asset classes between 2003 and 2017. Chief Investment Officer Rob Edel discussed 2016 investment performance and strategies, and economic issues facing the US economy under President Trump's administration.
This document summarizes a presentation given by John Nicola, Chairman and CEO of NWM, a wealth management firm. Some key points:
- NWM manages $4.7 billion in assets for families, foundations, and trusts. They provide integrated financial advice.
- The presentation discusses tax planning strategies, such as income splitting and the most tax efficient ways to build investment capital.
- It also covers estate planning techniques like alter ego trusts and estate freezes to minimize taxes and probate fees.
- The document outlines NWM's investment philosophy of focusing on after-tax returns and managing risk through diversification across asset classes.
On April 4th, 2017, Nicola Wealth Management hosted our annual Strategic Outlook seminar in Kelonwa where we will discussed what 2017 has in store for investors.
December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?Mark_Krygier
- The newsletter summarizes recent market performance and provides an outlook. It notes that historically markets have performed better from November to April.
- While some sectors seem overextended, fundamentals suggest markets may remain positive. The US central bank leadership is changing but no policy changes are expected.
- Bonds still have a place in portfolios due to providing insurance against volatility and securing capital, despite concerns around rising rates.
- The portfolio manager recently experienced a family loss and thanks clients who have referred new business.
Rinaldi's Smith School of Business Students Discuss Key Findings from Recent ...Joseph Rinaldi
Professor Joe Rinaldi has built up valuable relationships during his thirty years of capital markets and asset management experience. Giving his students access to these market leaders is a cornerstone of Professor Rinaldi's teaching strategy at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park.
Professor Rinaldi and his friends at Barron’s firmly believe in combining real world experience into formal education. Professor Rinaldi stated, “This Smith/Barron’s opportunity compliments my core philosophy to educate and assist students in beginning their careers in finance and investments. Our friends at Barron’s were kind enough to waive the $1,295.00 registration fee for each of our four students to attend their “Art of Successful Investing Conference.” The event was held on October 22nd at the Metropolitan Club in New York City. It was a one-day, limited-seating event that the premier financial magazine and website publisher described as a one-of-a-kind opportunity "to see and hear from investing luminaries at one place, at one time."
Professor Rinaldi's students participated in roundtable discussions on many key topics including domestic and global economic trends, individual stock picking strategies, U.S. presidential election insights, options strategies and practiced their networking skills. They heard and learned from some of the biggest names in the investment world. The experience they gained was priceless, especially since Barron's will not be making available a broadcast, replay, or repackaging of this information.
Students in Professor Rinaldi’s Futures, Options and Derivatives class (BMGT 444) are typically seniors who are looking ahead to their next stage in life - getting a job after they graduate. They enjoyed advantaged access to many potential employers at the event like Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Asset Management; Dan Fuss, Vice Chairman of Loomis Sayles, Meryl Witmer of Eagle Capital, Pat Neal of Treepoint Capital, as well as other members of the Barron's Roundtable.
The selection of the four students was extremely competitive. The screening process included submission of résumés, GPA scores greater than 3.8/4,0, relevant work experience, and a one-on-one interview. The four students who earned attendance include; Matya Magnezi, Justin Licameli, Alex Blum and Jon Szakelyhidi.
The students co-authored a White Paper (see above) on what they had learned and presented their findings orally during the Market Color segment of Professor Rinaldi's Futures, Options and Derivatives class.
The document is a quarterly newsletter from Krygier Wealth Management. It discusses improving consumer financial conditions in the US as default rates on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards are falling to post-recession lows. It warns that having too many similar investments can fail to properly diversify risk, and that having too many investment strategies can make it difficult to track progress toward financial goals. It advocates having a unified investment strategy and ensuring investments are truly diversified across sectors and regions.
Global Financial Private Capital is an investment advisory firm located in Sarasota, Florida. They provide investment advisory services for fees and also securities through affiliated companies. The document discusses their analysis of the current US economic environment. It identifies several headwinds, such as healthcare costs and the upcoming elections, but argues that tailwinds like consumer spending and US energy independence will promote continued economic growth overall. While no economy is perfect, the firm believes the tailwinds currently outweigh the headwinds and that growth will remain steady without signs of overheating.
On Thursday, May 11, 2017, Nicola Wealth Management hosted their annual Strategic Outlook event featuring presentations by NWM Chairman and CEO John Nicola and Chief Investment Officer Rob Edel.
Northwest Mutual manages over $4.8 billion in assets under management and was founded in 1994, with offices in Vancouver, Toronto, Kelowna, and Richmond. The company has a history of innovation in its investment strategies, launching new funds focused on real estate, mortgages, bonds, and other asset classes between 2003 and 2017. Chief Investment Officer Rob Edel discussed 2016 investment performance and strategies, and economic issues facing the US economy under President Trump's administration.
This document summarizes a presentation given by John Nicola, Chairman and CEO of NWM, a wealth management firm. Some key points:
- NWM manages $4.7 billion in assets for families, foundations, and trusts. They provide integrated financial advice.
- The presentation discusses tax planning strategies, such as income splitting and the most tax efficient ways to build investment capital.
- It also covers estate planning techniques like alter ego trusts and estate freezes to minimize taxes and probate fees.
- The document outlines NWM's investment philosophy of focusing on after-tax returns and managing risk through diversification across asset classes.
On April 4th, 2017, Nicola Wealth Management hosted our annual Strategic Outlook seminar in Kelonwa where we will discussed what 2017 has in store for investors.
December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?Mark_Krygier
- The newsletter summarizes recent market performance and provides an outlook. It notes that historically markets have performed better from November to April.
- While some sectors seem overextended, fundamentals suggest markets may remain positive. The US central bank leadership is changing but no policy changes are expected.
- Bonds still have a place in portfolios due to providing insurance against volatility and securing capital, despite concerns around rising rates.
- The portfolio manager recently experienced a family loss and thanks clients who have referred new business.
Rinaldi's Smith School of Business Students Discuss Key Findings from Recent ...Joseph Rinaldi
Professor Joe Rinaldi has built up valuable relationships during his thirty years of capital markets and asset management experience. Giving his students access to these market leaders is a cornerstone of Professor Rinaldi's teaching strategy at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park.
Professor Rinaldi and his friends at Barron’s firmly believe in combining real world experience into formal education. Professor Rinaldi stated, “This Smith/Barron’s opportunity compliments my core philosophy to educate and assist students in beginning their careers in finance and investments. Our friends at Barron’s were kind enough to waive the $1,295.00 registration fee for each of our four students to attend their “Art of Successful Investing Conference.” The event was held on October 22nd at the Metropolitan Club in New York City. It was a one-day, limited-seating event that the premier financial magazine and website publisher described as a one-of-a-kind opportunity "to see and hear from investing luminaries at one place, at one time."
Professor Rinaldi's students participated in roundtable discussions on many key topics including domestic and global economic trends, individual stock picking strategies, U.S. presidential election insights, options strategies and practiced their networking skills. They heard and learned from some of the biggest names in the investment world. The experience they gained was priceless, especially since Barron's will not be making available a broadcast, replay, or repackaging of this information.
Students in Professor Rinaldi’s Futures, Options and Derivatives class (BMGT 444) are typically seniors who are looking ahead to their next stage in life - getting a job after they graduate. They enjoyed advantaged access to many potential employers at the event like Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Asset Management; Dan Fuss, Vice Chairman of Loomis Sayles, Meryl Witmer of Eagle Capital, Pat Neal of Treepoint Capital, as well as other members of the Barron's Roundtable.
The selection of the four students was extremely competitive. The screening process included submission of résumés, GPA scores greater than 3.8/4,0, relevant work experience, and a one-on-one interview. The four students who earned attendance include; Matya Magnezi, Justin Licameli, Alex Blum and Jon Szakelyhidi.
The students co-authored a White Paper (see above) on what they had learned and presented their findings orally during the Market Color segment of Professor Rinaldi's Futures, Options and Derivatives class.
The document is a quarterly newsletter from Krygier Wealth Management. It discusses improving consumer financial conditions in the US as default rates on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards are falling to post-recession lows. It warns that having too many similar investments can fail to properly diversify risk, and that having too many investment strategies can make it difficult to track progress toward financial goals. It advocates having a unified investment strategy and ensuring investments are truly diversified across sectors and regions.
Global Financial Private Capital is an investment advisory firm located in Sarasota, Florida. They provide investment advisory services for fees and also securities through affiliated companies. The document discusses their analysis of the current US economic environment. It identifies several headwinds, such as healthcare costs and the upcoming elections, but argues that tailwinds like consumer spending and US energy independence will promote continued economic growth overall. While no economy is perfect, the firm believes the tailwinds currently outweigh the headwinds and that growth will remain steady without signs of overheating.
- Clinton delivered a State of the Union address in 2000 touting strong economic indicators, but markets soon collapsed into the worst decade in 80 years.
- Obama's 2010 State of the Union acknowledged economic struggles of high unemployment and falling home values since the recession. Stocks then surged after his speech.
- Most individual investors perform poorly despite believing they are above average. Cognitive biases, inability to predict the future, and lack of patience often cause investors to make suboptimal decisions.
The document discusses recent market trends and political issues in the US. It notes that gold, silver, oil prices hit multi-year highs while the US dollar fell against other currencies. Inflation increased in China but remained stable in the US. Congress passed bills to reduce the federal budget deficit. The document then summarizes a survey of baby boomers that found most are concerned about retiring as planned due to financial uncertainties.
The document discusses rising consumer prices, including the price of coffee. It provides three reasons for higher coffee prices: increasing costs of fertilizer and farm goods, rising affluence in developing countries leading to higher demand, and adverse weather affecting coffee production. While core inflation remains low, food and energy prices are rising. The yield curve is also discussed as a potential indicator of future recessions.
The document summarizes recent negative news headlines about weak global financial markets and slowing economies. While the headlines seem dire, the advisor argues they are designed primarily to generate readership rather than provide an accurate portrayal of the long-term economic situation. The advisor believes their role is to look beneath headlines and discern the real issues to help clients stay on track with their goals despite short-term market volatility.
The document summarizes recent negative economic news and market declines in the US. It reported that housing prices, manufacturing activity, consumer confidence, and unemployment all weakened in recent months. The stock market declined for five straight weeks in response. However, some analysts believe this is just a temporary slowdown and not the start of a double-dip recession, citing factors like low interest rates and corporate profits. The document advocates for optimism about US innovation and future economic growth.
This document provides a summary of market conditions and investment opportunities in May 2016. It notes that investor sentiment has been unusually neutral for an extended period. Real estate markets in Vancouver and Toronto have seen large price increases, which some see as a distortion caused by low interest rates. Earnings are expected to decline in the first quarter of 2016 but resume growth in the second half of the year. Three sectors - healthcare, telecommunications, and consumer discretionary - are expected to see earnings growth. Within consumer discretionary, strong double-digit earnings growth is forecast for retailing, consumer services, and other sub-sectors.
With the election of Donald Trump ushering in a dramatic change to the US policy framework, we look at the potential impact of his policies on growth, interest rates and the markets. We look in particular at the current state of the global equity market and the risks and opportunities it presents to clients if the US economy speeds up and interest rates rise.
Find out the potential economic policy changes as a result of the new US administration and what the impact these policy and economic changes have on global markets, especially equities
J.T. Mullen is the Chief Investment Strategist at Fairport Asset Management, bringing over 30 years of experience. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer at The Cleveland Foundation for 23 years, growing their endowment from $400 million to $1.8 billion. John Silvis is the Director of Investments at Fairport and oversees the research team and investment decisions. Richard D'Amico is the Manager of Investments and oversees fixed income models and alternative investments.
• Infrastructure—the other big fix
• What is the stock market saying about earnings?
• As short-term markets thaw, bond investors focus on long-term risk
• Hedge funds suffer their worst month ever
• Does a $1 trillion deficit matter?
• Q&A: Sizing up Obama’s policies and politics
The document summarizes recent economic data and stock market performance. It notes that less than three weeks ago, the economy appeared to be weakening and falling into a new recession, but recent data on auto sales, retail sales, and job growth has been better than expected, helping the stock market rise over 11% in two weeks. However, the author cautions it is too early to say the economy has fully turned around and still has improvements to make before a full recovery.
The document makes the case for international investing by providing several key points:
1) Nearly half of the world's stock market capitalization is in non-U.S. companies, so international diversification provides access to a larger pool of potential investments.
2) International stocks have lagged U.S. stocks since the financial crisis, so some experts believe they may have potential for higher returns going forward.
3) Including international stocks can help reduce overall portfolio volatility through diversification, as different markets experience cycles of outperformance.
Capital Associates - There is Always a Reason to SellMitch Katz
The document compares the performance of two investment portfolios over a 15-year period from 2000 to 2015 that included two bear markets and the Great Recession. A globally diversified portfolio with a mix of 65% stocks and 35% bonds outperformed an S&P 500 index portfolio, achieving higher returns with less risk. While both portfolios started with $500,000 and withdrew 5% annually, by 2015 the diversified portfolio still had $375,539 remaining, but the S&P 500 portfolio had run out of money. The analysis demonstrates the benefits of diversification and remaining invested during volatile markets.
The document compares the performance of two investment portfolios over a 15-year period from 2000 to 2015 that experienced significant market volatility and events. A portfolio consisting of 65% stocks and 35% bonds outperformed an S&P 500 portfolio, achieving an annualized return of 5.64% compared to 4.06% for the S&P 500 portfolio. The moderate portfolio also experienced less risk. By 2015, the moderate portfolio maintained a value of $375,539 after withdrawing $503,922 for income, while the S&P 500 portfolio was depleted. The document advocates for global diversification and maintaining a long-term perspective to achieve investment goals.
Learn how small and mid-size business owners acquire their wealth in this fre...The Business Journals
The document provides information from a study of small and medium sized business owners in the United States. It finds that 19% of business owners, with over $1 million in personal investments, control 52% of the total $1.6 trillion in personal investments from SMB owners. The wealthiest SMB owners are more optimistic about their financial futures, less inclined to retire, more reliant on financial advisors, and more satisfied with their advisors. Common investments among affluent SMB owners include real estate, savings accounts, stocks, mutual funds and life insurance.
Dr. Barbara O'Neill will present this 90-minute webinar on behalf of the Military Families Learning Network. 1.5 CEUs will be available to AFC-credentialed participants. Americans have always been fascinated by millionaires and their ranks have actually been increasing in recent years despite the financial crisis. The “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?” game show and “MegaMillions” lotteries draw big crowds. Most people become wealthy the “old fashioned way,” however, through hard work and regular saving/investing. This webinar will provide a solid path to wealth accumulation by presenting 20 research-based wealth accumulation factors and online financial planning resources. Webinar participants will learn about the following topics:
Twenty research-based factors that are associated with wealth accumulation
The awesome power of compound interest over time
The impact of lifestyle choices (e.g., health habits) upon personal finances
Research-based characteristics of millionaires
Resources for educators and consumers (e.g., online financial calculators)
The markets had a strong week with the S&P 500 and Dow posting their largest gains since December. Unemployment claims matched a four-year low and the Federal Reserve signaled it will keep interest rates low to support the economy. Meanwhile, Mongolia has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies due to its natural resources, but faces challenges in converting this wealth into long-term educational gains like more developed countries.
The document discusses several economic issues facing Zimbabwe and recommendations for improving the economy. It notes that many blacks cannot afford food and goods due to high prices set by businesses. Local businesses struggle against imports while failing businesses increase unemployment. Most farmland is owned by white farmers and inaccessible to the majority black population. The Zimbabwe dollar is a strong currency but little money is printed, leaving people unable to buy necessities. Recommendations include redistributing farmland, banning imports, fixing prices, and printing more money, but these past actions in Zimbabwe led to shortages and hyperinflation over 10,000,000% by 2008.
November 2018 Economic Minute with Dennis HoffmanShay Moser
The document discusses whether 3% economic growth in the US is sustainable. It presents arguments on both sides of the issue. Growth forecasts from analysts generally see GDP growth slowing to under 3% in 2019 due to factors like fading tax cuts, rising interest rates, and a global growth slowdown. Key indicators that will influence growth are business investment levels, trade balances, and how consumer and business confidence are impacted by rising rates. Attending an upcoming economic forecast luncheon is suggested to get the latest views on 2019 growth prospects.
This document discusses various topics related to wealth, money, and financial literacy. It begins by outlining common misconceptions around wealth and the difficulties discussing it. It then discusses the financial lives of average Americans versus strategies used by wealthy individuals. Key points include understanding cash flow, the different types of income, and how the tax system can be used strategically through things like business structures. Debt is also discussed, noting it can be good when used for assets but not for liabilities or "doodads." The document ends by comparing potential returns on different investments over one year to illustrate the power of leverage.
Leading in extraordinary times, the 2015 US CEO SurveyOmar Toor
Learn how US CEOs are positioning for a new era where overseas business growth is balanced more evenly between developed and emerging economies, and mainstream adoption of digital technologies everywhere is surging.
2017 Strategic Outlook - Vancouver (April 12, 2017) Victoria Grady
With global economic and political environments going through a potential sea change, John Nicola will examine the history and trends that could impact investors and the effectiveness of wealth management strategies.
As monetary policy and economic forces continue to struggle for stability, Rob Edel will explore how factors such as immigration, automation, and deleveraging impact economic recovery. Throw in The Trump Effect, and market uncertainty seems like the only certainty.
In the latest edition of Inside The Buy-side®, Corbin asked financial professionals about their expectations/sentiment on the earnings season, business climate and key areas of focus.
- Clinton delivered a State of the Union address in 2000 touting strong economic indicators, but markets soon collapsed into the worst decade in 80 years.
- Obama's 2010 State of the Union acknowledged economic struggles of high unemployment and falling home values since the recession. Stocks then surged after his speech.
- Most individual investors perform poorly despite believing they are above average. Cognitive biases, inability to predict the future, and lack of patience often cause investors to make suboptimal decisions.
The document discusses recent market trends and political issues in the US. It notes that gold, silver, oil prices hit multi-year highs while the US dollar fell against other currencies. Inflation increased in China but remained stable in the US. Congress passed bills to reduce the federal budget deficit. The document then summarizes a survey of baby boomers that found most are concerned about retiring as planned due to financial uncertainties.
The document discusses rising consumer prices, including the price of coffee. It provides three reasons for higher coffee prices: increasing costs of fertilizer and farm goods, rising affluence in developing countries leading to higher demand, and adverse weather affecting coffee production. While core inflation remains low, food and energy prices are rising. The yield curve is also discussed as a potential indicator of future recessions.
The document summarizes recent negative news headlines about weak global financial markets and slowing economies. While the headlines seem dire, the advisor argues they are designed primarily to generate readership rather than provide an accurate portrayal of the long-term economic situation. The advisor believes their role is to look beneath headlines and discern the real issues to help clients stay on track with their goals despite short-term market volatility.
The document summarizes recent negative economic news and market declines in the US. It reported that housing prices, manufacturing activity, consumer confidence, and unemployment all weakened in recent months. The stock market declined for five straight weeks in response. However, some analysts believe this is just a temporary slowdown and not the start of a double-dip recession, citing factors like low interest rates and corporate profits. The document advocates for optimism about US innovation and future economic growth.
This document provides a summary of market conditions and investment opportunities in May 2016. It notes that investor sentiment has been unusually neutral for an extended period. Real estate markets in Vancouver and Toronto have seen large price increases, which some see as a distortion caused by low interest rates. Earnings are expected to decline in the first quarter of 2016 but resume growth in the second half of the year. Three sectors - healthcare, telecommunications, and consumer discretionary - are expected to see earnings growth. Within consumer discretionary, strong double-digit earnings growth is forecast for retailing, consumer services, and other sub-sectors.
With the election of Donald Trump ushering in a dramatic change to the US policy framework, we look at the potential impact of his policies on growth, interest rates and the markets. We look in particular at the current state of the global equity market and the risks and opportunities it presents to clients if the US economy speeds up and interest rates rise.
Find out the potential economic policy changes as a result of the new US administration and what the impact these policy and economic changes have on global markets, especially equities
J.T. Mullen is the Chief Investment Strategist at Fairport Asset Management, bringing over 30 years of experience. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer at The Cleveland Foundation for 23 years, growing their endowment from $400 million to $1.8 billion. John Silvis is the Director of Investments at Fairport and oversees the research team and investment decisions. Richard D'Amico is the Manager of Investments and oversees fixed income models and alternative investments.
• Infrastructure—the other big fix
• What is the stock market saying about earnings?
• As short-term markets thaw, bond investors focus on long-term risk
• Hedge funds suffer their worst month ever
• Does a $1 trillion deficit matter?
• Q&A: Sizing up Obama’s policies and politics
The document summarizes recent economic data and stock market performance. It notes that less than three weeks ago, the economy appeared to be weakening and falling into a new recession, but recent data on auto sales, retail sales, and job growth has been better than expected, helping the stock market rise over 11% in two weeks. However, the author cautions it is too early to say the economy has fully turned around and still has improvements to make before a full recovery.
The document makes the case for international investing by providing several key points:
1) Nearly half of the world's stock market capitalization is in non-U.S. companies, so international diversification provides access to a larger pool of potential investments.
2) International stocks have lagged U.S. stocks since the financial crisis, so some experts believe they may have potential for higher returns going forward.
3) Including international stocks can help reduce overall portfolio volatility through diversification, as different markets experience cycles of outperformance.
Capital Associates - There is Always a Reason to SellMitch Katz
The document compares the performance of two investment portfolios over a 15-year period from 2000 to 2015 that included two bear markets and the Great Recession. A globally diversified portfolio with a mix of 65% stocks and 35% bonds outperformed an S&P 500 index portfolio, achieving higher returns with less risk. While both portfolios started with $500,000 and withdrew 5% annually, by 2015 the diversified portfolio still had $375,539 remaining, but the S&P 500 portfolio had run out of money. The analysis demonstrates the benefits of diversification and remaining invested during volatile markets.
The document compares the performance of two investment portfolios over a 15-year period from 2000 to 2015 that experienced significant market volatility and events. A portfolio consisting of 65% stocks and 35% bonds outperformed an S&P 500 portfolio, achieving an annualized return of 5.64% compared to 4.06% for the S&P 500 portfolio. The moderate portfolio also experienced less risk. By 2015, the moderate portfolio maintained a value of $375,539 after withdrawing $503,922 for income, while the S&P 500 portfolio was depleted. The document advocates for global diversification and maintaining a long-term perspective to achieve investment goals.
Learn how small and mid-size business owners acquire their wealth in this fre...The Business Journals
The document provides information from a study of small and medium sized business owners in the United States. It finds that 19% of business owners, with over $1 million in personal investments, control 52% of the total $1.6 trillion in personal investments from SMB owners. The wealthiest SMB owners are more optimistic about their financial futures, less inclined to retire, more reliant on financial advisors, and more satisfied with their advisors. Common investments among affluent SMB owners include real estate, savings accounts, stocks, mutual funds and life insurance.
Dr. Barbara O'Neill will present this 90-minute webinar on behalf of the Military Families Learning Network. 1.5 CEUs will be available to AFC-credentialed participants. Americans have always been fascinated by millionaires and their ranks have actually been increasing in recent years despite the financial crisis. The “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?” game show and “MegaMillions” lotteries draw big crowds. Most people become wealthy the “old fashioned way,” however, through hard work and regular saving/investing. This webinar will provide a solid path to wealth accumulation by presenting 20 research-based wealth accumulation factors and online financial planning resources. Webinar participants will learn about the following topics:
Twenty research-based factors that are associated with wealth accumulation
The awesome power of compound interest over time
The impact of lifestyle choices (e.g., health habits) upon personal finances
Research-based characteristics of millionaires
Resources for educators and consumers (e.g., online financial calculators)
The markets had a strong week with the S&P 500 and Dow posting their largest gains since December. Unemployment claims matched a four-year low and the Federal Reserve signaled it will keep interest rates low to support the economy. Meanwhile, Mongolia has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies due to its natural resources, but faces challenges in converting this wealth into long-term educational gains like more developed countries.
The document discusses several economic issues facing Zimbabwe and recommendations for improving the economy. It notes that many blacks cannot afford food and goods due to high prices set by businesses. Local businesses struggle against imports while failing businesses increase unemployment. Most farmland is owned by white farmers and inaccessible to the majority black population. The Zimbabwe dollar is a strong currency but little money is printed, leaving people unable to buy necessities. Recommendations include redistributing farmland, banning imports, fixing prices, and printing more money, but these past actions in Zimbabwe led to shortages and hyperinflation over 10,000,000% by 2008.
November 2018 Economic Minute with Dennis HoffmanShay Moser
The document discusses whether 3% economic growth in the US is sustainable. It presents arguments on both sides of the issue. Growth forecasts from analysts generally see GDP growth slowing to under 3% in 2019 due to factors like fading tax cuts, rising interest rates, and a global growth slowdown. Key indicators that will influence growth are business investment levels, trade balances, and how consumer and business confidence are impacted by rising rates. Attending an upcoming economic forecast luncheon is suggested to get the latest views on 2019 growth prospects.
This document discusses various topics related to wealth, money, and financial literacy. It begins by outlining common misconceptions around wealth and the difficulties discussing it. It then discusses the financial lives of average Americans versus strategies used by wealthy individuals. Key points include understanding cash flow, the different types of income, and how the tax system can be used strategically through things like business structures. Debt is also discussed, noting it can be good when used for assets but not for liabilities or "doodads." The document ends by comparing potential returns on different investments over one year to illustrate the power of leverage.
Leading in extraordinary times, the 2015 US CEO SurveyOmar Toor
Learn how US CEOs are positioning for a new era where overseas business growth is balanced more evenly between developed and emerging economies, and mainstream adoption of digital technologies everywhere is surging.
2017 Strategic Outlook - Vancouver (April 12, 2017) Victoria Grady
With global economic and political environments going through a potential sea change, John Nicola will examine the history and trends that could impact investors and the effectiveness of wealth management strategies.
As monetary policy and economic forces continue to struggle for stability, Rob Edel will explore how factors such as immigration, automation, and deleveraging impact economic recovery. Throw in The Trump Effect, and market uncertainty seems like the only certainty.
In the latest edition of Inside The Buy-side®, Corbin asked financial professionals about their expectations/sentiment on the earnings season, business climate and key areas of focus.
You are not born an entrepreneur, you become oneJuliaShapiro9
This document discusses entrepreneurship and career success. It summarizes that:
1) Entrepreneurship and high earnings are strongly correlated with high socioeconomic status at birth, contradicting perceptions of meritocracy.
2) Government policies from the 1950s-1980s promoting social services, middle class growth, and investments in innovation fueled mobility but these have decreased.
3) Traditional hiring, investment, and promotion practices contain strong biases that disadvantage women and minorities and undermine the benefits of diversity. Data-driven assessments can mitigate these biases.
4) Early government investments and partnerships were crucial to building innovation hubs like Silicon Valley, but these policies have changed along with rising inequality in recent decades.
This document summarizes Daniel Perez Liston's presentation on the hiring and economic outlook for Houston in 2015. The presentation covers trends in the world, US, Texas, and Houston economies. For Houston specifically, job growth is forecast to be between 40,000-60,000 jobs in 2015, though the energy industry may see layoffs. Economic growth will likely be weaker in 2015. The presentation advises businesses to be cautiously optimistic and conscious of expenses while looking for opportunities to use competencies in other industries during the economic slowdown.
This document discusses the 1st & Main Investment Advisors Q3 2016 newsletter. It summarizes that the advisors have taken a conservative approach to equity allocations since late 2015 due to market corrections. While slowly increasing risk again, they feel prepared if election uncertainty causes challenges. Historically, election results have little long-term impact on markets. The advisors recommend staying focused on goals and broader economic trends rather than election prognostications.
With such an unpredictable 2016 behind us where Brexit and the election of new US president Donald Trump sent shock waves through the world, the question is, what can we expect for 2017?
Royal Institution: Investing As If The Long Term MattersDr Raj Thamotheram
This document discusses issues related to long-term investing and sustainability. It notes growing inequality, extremism, climate change risks, and loss of confidence in politics and corporate governance failures. It argues the current system is overly intermediated and dysfunctional, with short-term incentives and irrational theories. Investors are seen as enabling these issues by primarily caring about short-term returns. The document calls for treating these issues by focusing companies and investors on long-term wealth creation, fiduciary capitalism, and taking urgent action on sustainability in line with limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius.
Pursuing a better investment experience.Gregg Hancock
This document discusses key principles for improving your odds of investment success. It begins by showing how the average equity investor has underperformed market indexes like the S&P 500 over the long term. It then explains that humans are not wired for disciplined investing and tend to make poor decisions by acting on impulse, being swayed by the media, and trying to predict the future. The document outlines 10 principles for better investing, including embracing market pricing, not trying to outguess the market, resisting chasing past performance, letting markets work for investors over the long run, considering dimensions of expected returns, and practicing smart diversification.
1) The global economy is experiencing slower growth as potential growth rates decline around the world due to factors like aging populations and slowing productivity.
2) Political risks are rising as major countries like the US, Europe, and China hold elections, which could undermine investor risk appetite.
3) Monetary policy alone cannot boost growth significantly and fiscal policy is needed, but the transition to more active fiscal policy carries risks of overheating economies.
4) Developed markets are expected to see slightly faster growth and higher rates in 2017, while the US is likely to pursue an "America First" agenda under a Republican government.
President and chief investment officer, Robert Lutts, of Cabot Wealth Management presents a luncheon keynote where he discusses a bull market, four signs of trouble ahead, and Cabot's top three investment themes.
President and chief investment officer, Robert Lutts, of Cabot Wealth Management presents a luncheon keynote where he discusses a bull market, four signs of trouble ahead in the economy, and Cabot's top three investment themes.
This document provides a 2019 strategic outlook from Nicola Wealth. It begins with a review of 2018, which was a challenging year for markets. Several presentations then discuss themes including four season investing patterns, concerns around debt and potential economic storms from issues like trade wars and monetary policy. The document advocates an allocation emphasizing equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. It suggests opportunities may now exist more in areas like private debt and private equity versus public markets. Overall the outlook expresses caution about extended economic and market cycles.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the potential economic impacts of policies under President Trump. It first establishes baseline economic data and then outlines key Trump administration policies in areas like immigration, national security, tariffs, deregulation, taxes, infrastructure and the Federal Reserve. For each policy area, it discusses the main features and then assesses potential macroeconomic impacts as well as implications for specific sectors like manufacturing, finance, energy and communities. While outcomes are uncertain, policies could boost growth but also increase deficits, inflation and trade tensions depending on how they are implemented and whether they face retaliation.
The Global Risk Nexus: Economics, Politics, Policy & Markets - MSCI Instituti...Jay Pelosky
I use the Global Risk Nexus framework to develop original insights into the investment landscape. Given where we are calendar wise the Politics and Policy sections are definitely worth a look.
Why do people make irrational investment decisions? How to make sure you don't.netwealthInvest
Part of Netwealth's portfolio construction webinar series - Chris Inifer from Allan Gray presented to an audience on 12th July 2016 on how a contrarian investment approach may help protect against poor human decision making that are often driven by emotion and biases.
Higher growth, higher risk, slightly higher returns
We expect a lack of investment opportunities to remain an enduring challenge for
investors in 2017. We think this despite the fact that economic growth will likely pick
up in 2017 vs the somewhat disappointing performance in 2016. Indeed, over the
past several months, the growth rate of global GDP already appears to be realizing at
the top of the 3%-3½% range that has prevailed throughout the past five years. The
main reason is the swing in the financial conditions impulse from sharply negative to
modestly positive, both in the US and in parts of the emerging world. And the fiscal
stimulus that will likely be enacted by the new Trump administration, and in other
advanced economies, will only reinforce the inflation pressures already in place. With
output and employment already close to potential, the rising inflation pressure
strengthens our conviction that the Federal Reserve will likely raise the funds rate in
December and again three more times during 2017 (“A catalyst for tighter Fed
policy“, Global Economics Analyst, 16 Nov 2016).
Stronger cyclical growth in the US will probably not do much for asset markets
except help shift the narrative from ‘low-flation’ and monetary accommodation to
reflation and rising rates. But this will not change the fact that the trend growth rate
of GDP appears to have fallen for both advanced and emerging economies during
the post-crisis period. Meanwhile, valuation levels for equities and especially bonds
remain highly elevated by historical standards, so expected returns appear to be low
across most asset classes. In fixed income, yield is scarce, and in equities, growth is
scarce. So investors have been pushed into less familiar strategies, such as equity
investors reaching for yield in high-dividend, low-vol stocks, or bond investors lining
up to own the growth risk inherent in the long-duration bonds of tech companies.
2017: U.S. Dollar Index -10%, worst year since 2003. The dollar took it on the chin last year, as growth abroad strengthened, dimming the spotlight on America. The euro zone economy grew 2.5% in 2017, the fastest in a decade
The document summarizes the eventful first quarter of 2016, including a volatile stock market that ended the quarter in positive territory, unexpected results in presidential races, and Financial Synergies being recognized on two prestigious local lists. It also previews topics that will be covered in the quarterly newsletter, such as perspectives on the market volatility and importance of emergency funds.
This document provides information about ECR Research, an independent research firm that provides weekly reports and analysis on global financial markets, political developments, and asset allocation strategies. ECR Research employs a team of 9 seasoned market experts who collectively have over 200 years of experience. The firm's analysis is based on over 200 hours of research each week comparing over 100 sources. ECR Research has over 3,500 subscribers globally, including 20+ central banks. Clients praise the firm's comprehensive yet easy to read analysis and unbiased perspectives.
Garry Trennepohl presents "Decoding Financial Statements" during the Reynolds Center for Business Journalism's annual Business Journalism Week, Jan. 4, 2014. Trennepohl is the ONEOK Chair of Finance at Oklahoma State University.
The annual event features two concurrent seminars, Business Journalism Professors and Strictly Financials for journalists.
For more information about business journalism training, please visit http://businessjournalism.org.
Similar to 2017 NWM Strategic Outlook Event (Calgary) (20)
This document summarizes a real estate event hosted by Nicola Wealth Management. It begins with an introduction by David Sung, President of Nicola Wealth. The document then discusses typical balanced mutual fund allocations, performance of various pension funds and composite returns. It provides an overview of the real estate market and compares returns of real estate to stocks and bonds. The remainder consists of presentations on market outlook, investment strategies and a panel discussion on the Vancouver real estate market with industry experts.
In our annual Calgary event, held at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, we presented Strategic Decisions for an Uncertain Future:
Mark Therriault, Nicola Wealth Financial Advisor and Partner, addresses several issues facing high net worth families:
• How will the Liberals’ tax changes affect financial planning for Canadians?
• How will inflated prices impact future returns?
• Are there best practices for navigating the current environment?
Rob Edel, Chief Investment Officer provides an investment roadmap for 2018:
• After a record-breaking period for the S&P 500, what signs might indicate an economic downturn?
• What current events could most affect the economy and investment strategy?
• What should one make of bitcoin, marijuana stocks, electric vehicles, and other hot topics for the upcoming year?
In our annual Toronto event, held at the Four Seasons Toronto, we presented Strategic Decisions for an Uncertain Future:
John Nicola, Chairman & CEO addresses several issues facing high net worth families:
• How will the Liberals’ tax changes affect financial planning for Canadians?
• How will inflated prices impact future returns?
• Are there best practices for navigating the current environment?
Rob Edel, Chief Investment Officer provides an investment roadmap for 2018:
• After a record-breaking period for the S&P 500, what signs might indicate an economic downturn?
• What current events could most affect the economy and investment strategy?
• What should one make of bitcoin, marijuana stocks, electric vehicles, and other hot topics for the upcoming year?
In this annual Strategic Outlook seminar, we will discuss what the markets have in store for 2018, and beyond.
Presenters:
John Nicola, Chairman & CEO
John will address several issues facing high net worth families:
- How will the Liberals’ tax changes affect financial planning for Canadians?
- How will inflated prices impact future returns?
- Are there best practices for navigating the current environment?
Rob Edel, Chief Investment Officer
Rob will provide an investment roadmap for 2018:
- After a record-breaking period for the S&P 500, what signs might indicate an economic downturn?
- What current events could most affect the economy and investment strategy?
- What should one make of bitcoin, marijuana stocks, electric vehicles, and other hot topics for the upcoming year?
2017 TORONTO Fall Event - Proposed Tax Reform: What You Need to Know (October...Nicola Wealth Management
On October 1, 2017, NWM hosted a group of clients at the Four Seasons Hotel Toronto to discuss Finance Minister Bill Morneau and the Canadian government's proposal for tax reform impacting the majority of Canadian business owners.
NWM President, David Sung, opened the evening with an overview of the proposed tax changes. He provided some context and asked the audience to consider the political undertone of the Liberal government's tax proposal and the way in which they have handled the public push-back.
John Nicola, Chairman & CEO, an overview of what the government is proposing exactly and the impact it will have. He went on to discuss some planning options available to Canadian business owners.
On October 5, 2017, NWM hosted a group of over 500 people at the Fairmont Hotel Vancouver to discuss the Finance Minister Bill Morneau and the Canadian government's proposal for tax reform impacting the majority of Canadian business owners.
NWM President, David Sung, opened the evening with an overview of the proposed tax changes. He provided some context and asked the audience to consider the political undertone of the Liberal government's tax proposal and the way in which they have handled the public push-back.
John Nicola, Chairman & CEO, an overview of what the government is proposing exactly and the impact it will have. He went on to discuss some planning options available to Canadian business owners.
Nicola Wealth Management - Proposed Tax Reform 2017: What Accountants Need to...Nicola Wealth Management
On September 28th, Nicola Wealth Management hosted over 120 accountants for a presentation on the Canadian government's proposed tax changes for incorporated individuals and small businesses.
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcriptynfqplhm
办理美国SDSU毕业证书制作南达科他州立大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做SDSU留信网教留服认证海牙认证改SDSU成绩单GPA做SDSU假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请南达科他州立大学South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Every business, big or small, deals with outgoing payments. Whether it’s to suppliers for inventory, to employees for salaries, or to vendors for services rendered, keeping track of these expenses is crucial. This is where payment vouchers come in – the unsung heroes of the accounting world.
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck mari...Donc Test
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
3. Our Speakers
Rob Edel
Chief Investment Officer
Mark Therriault
Chairman & CEO
Mark Therriault
Financial Advisor
4. Who We Are
Founded in 1994
$4.8 billion in AUM
Vancouver, Toronto, Kelowna, Richmond
5. Budgeting
Cash Flow and
Compensation
Estate And
Succession
Planning Legal
Coordination And
Document Retention
Coordination of
Tax Planning
Philanthropic
Giving And
Management
Asset Allocation
And Investment
Management
Insurance
Placement And
Management
Coordination
&
Management
Our Focus: Total Integration of Financial & Wealth
Management Strategies
13. Economic Diagnosis
Doctor Robert Gordon – Productivity Slowdown
WSJ – Aug 10, 2016
Dr. Robert Gordon
Productivity Slowdown
• Supply-side secular stagnation
• Productivity gains from IT over
• Norm is lower productivity
“We wanted flying cars, but instead we got 140 characters.” - Peter Thiel
14. Economic Diagnosis
Doctor Larry Summers – Secular Stagnation
Dr. Larry Summers
Secular Stagnation
• Not enough demand
• Leads to lower investment
• Lack of demand creates lack of supply
• Need to borrow more – fiscal stimulus
Business Insider – Aug 17, 2106
15. Economic Diagnosis
Doctor’s Reinhart & Rogoff – De-leveraging
Dr. Carmen Reinhart
Dr. Kenneth Rogoff
Deleveraging
• Too much debt
• Deleveraging takes 8 years
• Recoveries are weaker
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html
Recession
• Deleveraging made recession worse
• But GDP Growth was slowing
well before deleveraging began
• Debt increased because GDP slowed
WSJ – Oct 6, 2016
16. Economic Diagnosis
Doctor Mervyn King – Savings Glut
Dr. Mervyn King
Savings Glut
• Unsustainable trade imbalance
• Since early 2000’s
• US growth - consumption
• Asia/Europe growth - Exports
• US consumer add debt
• China buy US Treasury’s
• Lower US interest rates
• Lower US inflation WSJ – Nov 16, 2016
18. POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
OF A TRUMP
PRESIDENCY AT
VARIOUS PLACES ON
THE RISK CURVE
NUCLEAR WAR
BRINGING EMBARASMENT TO
AMERICA ON THE WORLD
STAGE
GOOD DEALS
SOME COOL
INFRASTRUCTURE
STUFF
MEXICO PAYING
FOR THE WALL
Treatment Options
Dr. Trump or Mr. Burns
Business Insider
Probability
Return +-
TRUMP IMPEACHED
DUE TO RUSSIAN COLLUSION
TRADE WAR
WITH CHINA
This presentation is not an endorsement of President Trump or an endorsement of any of President Trump’s
policies. NWM has had no contact with any Russian foreign nationals in the past, nor do we intend to in
the future. Any statements to the contrary are fake news.
20. JP Morgan Eye on the Market – Michael Cembalest Jan 23, 2017
George Mason University
• Regulations across 22 industries reduce GDP 0.8%/yr.
• Economy would be 25% larger if no regulations since 1980
World Bank - Ease of Doing Business Report
• U.S. 51/190 for starting a business
• 2012 – 40 days to get a construction permit
• 2016 – 81 days
1950 – 5% of workers required a license or certificate
2016 – 30%
Treatment Options
Dr. Trump or Mr. Burns – Deregulation
21. WSJ – Nov 28, 2016
U.S. companies hold
$2 trillion offshore
Treatment Options
Dr. Trump or Mr. Burns – Tax Reform
JP Morgan Eye On The Market
Michael Cembalest Feb 8, 2017
22. Bloomberg – Jan 11, 2017
Average U.S. commuter
wastes over 40 hours/yr.
waiting in traffic
$1 trillion spent over 10 years
Moody’s Analytics:
Every $1= $1.21 in GDP
Treatment Options
Dr. Trump or Mr. Burns – Infrastructure Spending
WSJ Mar 10, 2017
$1 trillion = +5% to Debt
$4.6 trillion = ~ +25% to Debt
23. The Daily Shot – Aug 24, 2016
The 1%
Top
2-5%
Top 1%
Treatment Options
Dr. Trump or Mr. Burns – Trade
24. $347 Billion
$69 Billion
$65 Billion
$63 Billion
• U.S. Trade Deficit ~ $500 billion
• Not just Tariffs - VAT
• U.S. Exporter pay VAT
• Foreign Exporters get a VAT Credit
Treatment Options
Dr. Trump or Mr. Burns – Trade
Oxford University
• Nearly 50% of U.S. Jobs will be automated in 20 years
McKinsey &Co.
• 45% of today’s activities can be automated
• But less then 5% can be full automated
Deloitte
• Automation could lift global productivity 0.8% - 1.4%/yr over
next 50 years
25. Pew Research - 2020-2040
• Working population +0.3%
• 500,000 less +0.1%
• 1,000,000 less -0.1%
Treatment Options
Dr. Trump or Mr. Burns – Immigration
Pew Research
• 8 million undocumented workers
• 5% of civilian workforce
• 92% between 18-64 years old
• 70% in Agriculture and Construction
26. Treatment Options
Make the Economy Great Again - Education
Math
U.S. #38 of 71
Canada #9 of 71
Reading
U.S. #39 of 71
Canada #3 of 71
Science
U.S. #24 of 71
Canada #7 of 71
WSJ – Dec 8, 2016
President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology U.S. will need ~1 million more STEM professionals
over next decade than will currently produce. Need to increase STEM degrees by 34%.
28. The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Treatment Options
Make the Economy Great Again – Entitlement Spending
29. WSJ – Aug 21, 2016
Low/Negative Interest Rates
• Lowers consumer confidence – communicate fear
• Hurts savers
• Increases wealth gap – low rates helps financial assets
Treatment Options
Make the Economy Great Again – Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy
• Need to normalize interest rates
• If only U.S. then US$ will increase
Trade
• Need to balance trade flows
• China, but also Germany
33. Treatment Options
Make the Economy Great Again – Monetary Policy
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/canadas-50-most-important-economic-
charts-for-2016/
34. Treatment Options
Make the Economy Great Again – Monetary Policy
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/canadas-50-most-important-economic-
charts-for-2016/
37. Investment Strategies
Equities – Active Management
Bloomberg – Jan 26, 2017
Correlation low
% of Managers beating benchmark high
?
During QE everything went up.
As interest rates normalize,
correlations will decrease
38. Economy starting to reflate
Trump policies could help
Risks are too the upside
Monetary policy to finally normalize
Equities in the short term
Active Management
Diversification!
Summary
40. Federal Budget March 22nd
Issues and Questions
• Size and length of deficits
• Response to border taxes
• Changes to capital gains tax?
• Impact of SBD on incorporated
professionals
• Restrict who can incorporate
• Limit Income splitting
• Limit retention of corporate
earnings
41. A Genius Bromance
Daniel Kahneman
• Introvert
• Holocaust Survivor
• Psychologist
• Taught at UBC
• Nobel Prize 2002 in
Economics
Amos Tversky
• Extrovert
• Israeli Sabra
• Psychologist
• Taught at Stanford
• Died before Nobel prize
48. Emotional Investing
5.8%
1.8%
Fund Investor
Vanguard Value Fund
10-year return (01/2017) Name Fund Investor
Vanguard Growth
Stock
Index
8.1% 5.3%
Vanguard
Small Cap
Value Index
7.5% 4.2%
Vanguard
Small Cap Growth
index
8.1% 7.2%
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-
ideas/strategy-lab/index-investing/how-factor-based-
investors-take-bigger-risks/article34179810/
-2.8%
-0.9%
-3.2%
49. Managing Assets More Efficiently
Canadian Equities, 16.7%
High Yield Bonds, 7.3%
Preferred Shares, 4.5%
Alternative Strategies,
15.0%
Real Estate, 20.0%
Mortgages, 11.0%
Bonds, 9.0%
Foreign Bonds, 5.4%
Cash, 4.0%
Foreign Equities, 12.1%
11.4%
Re-Balance
-7.5%
7.48%
Blended
2015
50. • Prices were down 35%
• Yields were up more than 50%
• Taxes on income 20% less than interest (equal to bonds
paying 8%)
• Good chance of capital recovery over five years
What Happened ?
51. A Tale of Two Shares
7.9% after fees
5.3% before fees
Purchases at depressed
prices
35% recovery
53. • Good investor behaviour is difficult
• 90% of investors do not earn the benchmarks
• Volatility can bring on bad behaviour
• Diversification is both safe and effective
• Picking quality assets takes time and patience
Behaviour and Diversification
54. Many Happy Returns?
Can a 4% real rate of return be achieved without
significant increase in risk?
56. How Do ETFs Compare Over 10 Years?
10% 10%
22%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Canadian equities Canadian Bonds S&P 500 MSCI
ETF
1st and 2nd quartile over ten years
57. Active vs. Passive Investing
What is an Active Manager?
• 2007 Yale Study (Updated 2013 FAJ)
• Cremers and Petajisto
• Focused positions (example Oakmark
Select with 20 positions)
• Not always within the benchmark
• Different trading strategies and not
market weighted
60. Active vs. Passive Investing
4.03%
6.84%
7.73%
Average Return, 5 years
ETFs NWM Active Client Returns
Dalbar Effect means
Average investor
lower than this
Disciplined rebalancing
creates results better than
buy/hold
61. CAN CI Bal Inc (PSG) 100/100 (PS1) Trimark Glbl Balanced Cl Srs P USD IG/GWL Balanced GIF 75/100 A
TD Advantage Balanced Portfolio-ABMO Asset Allocation - ARBC Bal Fund Series A
Source:GlobeInvestorGoldApr4,2016
Beyond Stocks and Bonds
62. Beyond the 60/40 Approach
Canadian Equities
Foreign Equities
Bonds
Foreign Bonds
High Yield Bonds
First Mortgages
Second Mortgages
Real Estate
Private Equity
Preferred Shares
Alternative Strategies
NWM
66. Hard Asset Real Estate
SPIRE RE LP (2005) SPIRE US LP (2010) SPIRE VA LP (2014)
$2 billion gross assets ($1 billion client equity)
67. Private Equity vs. Public Equity
Northleaf: “Private equity should
continue to provide investors with a
premium of 3% to 5% relative to
public markets over the long term”
Issues with Private Equity
• Large minimum investment
• No liquidity for 7 to 10 years
• Capital calls and return of capital
• Concentration risk
72. THANK YOU
This presentation contains the current opinions of the presenter and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only and is not
intended to provide legal, accounting, tax or specific investment advice. Please speak to your NWM Advisor regarding your unique situation. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained
herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. NWM fund returns are
quoted net of fund-level expenses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments contain risk and may gain or lose value. NWM is registered as a Portfolio Manager, Exempt
Market Dealer and Investment Fund Manager with the required provincial securities’ commissions.
Agenda:
Look at what happen last year
In both the markets & the economy
Next, we will look at some theories on why the economic recovery has been so slow
Before looking at some options for getting growth moving
First by President Trump
And then a few of our own
Finally, we’ll wind up we a couple thoughts on investing over the next year or so
Equities overall had a pretty good year in 2016, with the S&P + 12% and TSX 21%
But it wasn’t straight up , the market moved basically in 4 segments.
Early in the year, the S&P 500 was quite week falling 16% by mid February
Mainly due to recession fears
Next the market recovered, but it was not a broad rally, most higher yielding names
The market also dipped after Brexit, which added to the uncertainty
The third segment was basically flat as uncertainty over the US election dominated
Then finally, Trump was elect. The market initially dipped but then surprisingly rallied strong the rest of the year
The bond market show the 4 segments even more clearly
Yields fell sharply early in the year, but continued to fall until near the middle of the year, hitting absurdly low levels. This is around the same time rates in Europe and Japan were moving solidly into negative territory.
Yields recovered somewhat as it became clear negative interest rates were not the answer and perhaps monetary policy had reached it’s limits.
The economy was also starting to gain some traction
Finally, after Trump was elected, yields briefly dipped in over night trading before rising the next date and next couple of months.
Looking at the economy
It is clear the economy hit a weak spot early in 2016
The ISM Purchasing Manager’s index dipped below 50, indicating the manufacturing industry was contracting, before recovering strongly late in the year
New job growth was also weak, especially in January and May, before recovering.
In line with weak job growth earlier in the year, wage growth remained very modest, especially given the unemployment rate is below 5% and near full employment levels.
Wage growth is important given concerns regarding deflation
Again, we have seen more strength in the second half of the year with wage growth finally starting to increase
Finally, GDP growth hit a soft spell in Q4 2015 and Q1 2016, coming in under 1%, before starting to recover.
While this recovery largely removed concerns the US economy has heading for a recovery, it by all means wasn’t strong, and weak GDP growth has been one of the hallmarks of the recovery from the financial recovery.
Not only has this recovery been weak, however, growth has been sub par for a while
As can been seen in this chart, growth in the 1980’s was over 4%, before slowing to just under 4% in the 1990’s
In the last two recoveries, however, there appears to be a significant secular decline in growth, with the recovery in starting in 2001 below averaging 3%, and the latest recovery only averaging just over 2% real GDP growth.
In Q4 2016, in fact, GDP growth was under 2% again.
This is important because we typically attribute the current slow growth recovery to the fallout from the financial crisis, but really this has been evolving over a much longer time period.
The big question is why.
There is not point trying to figure out how to make the economy great again if we don’t understand why it has slowed in the first place.
And why is not clear cut
There is much debate and many different theories.
We can see the symptoms, we just don’t know what is causing it.
On TV, when there was a medical case that had the doctor’s stumped and lives were at risk, the patient was sent to see Doctor House.
And I think this is what we need now.
We need Dr. House to look at the symptoms and diagnose “How to make the economy great again”.
Now on the old TV series, House didn’t work alone, he had a team of doctors that helped him brain storm through various ideas.
So tonight, we are going to propose 4 different therories from four different Doctors that Dr. House might want to consider
Next up is Dr. Robert Gordon, who wrote the book “The Rise and Fall of American Growth
Dr. Gordon makes the case that the large productivity gains of the past are behind us.
Future gains from technology can’t match those of electricity, motor cars, petro chemicals or indoor plumbing
He makes the point that many of the recent technology advances are more geared to entertainment than productivity
Gordon doesn’t really offer solution to the problem, but rather makes the case that strong productivity growth experienced in the past has been the exception rather than the rule, and we should lower our expectations.
The chart here shows the evidence in Dr. Gordon’s favor as productivity has been slowing and is presently estimated to be only about 0.5%, well below the normal 2-4% range
Dr Larry Summers is next to give Dr. House his views.
Summers, an former Treasury Secretary under the Clinton Administration and current Harvard professor (and president)
Agrees with the secular stagnation theory, but rather than a supply issue, he believes demand is the problem
Namely American households are not spending enough.
This lack of demand or spending has resulted is a pullback in corporate investment and thus the slow demand growth has thus created a slowdown in supply and productivity
Summers solution is increased government spending in order to make up the short fall in demand
Interest rates are low so it is ok to increase debt even higher
And for this reason, interest rates will need to be kept low for the foreseeable future.
This is the opposite to what Reinhart and Rogoff believe.
Summers is vague when it comes to identifying the cause of the demand shortfall
But as can be see in the following chart the preference for saving over spending is clearly evident
Income inequality, the erosion of the middle class, uncertainty over job security and retirement saving is likely a major cause
Well, let’s go to our first Doctor, which is actually a team, Dr. Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff.
Apart from being prominent Harvard professors, Reinhart and Rogoff are known for writing the book “It’s different this time” which basically makes the case the financial crisis was caused by US households accumulating too much debt and the slow recovery is a result of the deleveraging cycle, which they estimate has historically taken 8 years.
We tend to be sympathetic to the deleveraging theory.
Borrowing money to spend to today is basically bringing forward future growth, so it makes sense that it would lead to slower growth in the future if & when it is paid back.
As can be seen in this chart showing US household debt building up before the recession, and then declining .
The problem is as we showed before, GDP started to slow well before the financial crisis/recession, so the while the deleveraging process has likely contributed to the slow growth recovery, it not the entire answer.
It is more likely that slow growth and the resulting slow income growth was the reason US households increased debt as their tried to maintain their standard of living while incomes stagnated.
In this way, debt and the subsequent deleveraging was caused by the slow economic growth, not the other way around
Finally, Dr. Mervyn King weigh in.
Dr. King is a former governor of the Bank of England and author of the book, the End of Alchemy
In the book. King makes the case that there has been a major imbalance in the world economy brewing since the early 2000’s that is unsustainable
The US has run massive trade deficits while Asia (meaning China) and to a lessor degree Europe (meaning Germany) have been running massive surpluses.
This chart clearly shows how the U.S. current account deficits are matched by surpluses in China and Europe.
King views coincide with Reinhart and Rogoff in pointing to the large amount of debt accumulated by US household’s since 2000 as being part of the problem
But then goes the next step and points out that the vast amount of US dollars accumulated by countries like China effectively resulted in a savings glut as they were used to buy US treasury’s
As a result, this massive influx of demand for US dollars resulted on In lower interest rates, and lower prices
All of this was good for US consumers, but bad for US workers who lost their jobs
Kings view makes sense, Before the financial crisis, many felt the US dollar was at risk because of the massive trade deficit and would plummett if China started to sell their vast horde of treasury bonds.
As it tunred out, the oppsote has happended
All four theories likely play a role, but deleveraging in combination with Dr. Kings savings glut appear most instruction to us.
But there is one for Doctor to hear from
Namely Dr. Trump
After all, why did markets rally so strongly after Trump was elected?
Markets traded down sharply when it looked like Trump was going to win
But rally the next day
And then have continued to go up
Why the turnaround?
Well, using the Doctor analogy, it’s like the story of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
But in this case, we don’t know who we are going to get:
Is it going to be this guy, Dr. Trump – who wants to make America great again and has some ideas on how to do it.
Or is it going to be more like this guys, Mr. Burns?
On November you woke up and saw the headlines in the paper that Donald Trump was going to be the next president of the United State this is like what immediately went through your head:
Will Trump Flourish…..or fail?
Never has a president so polarized, not only Americans, but the world
And it very emotional
People are scared
We borrowed this idea from Business insider
Using a normal distribution curve, we have charted the possible outcomes of a Trump presidency or a risk curve.
Outcome or risk, from negative to positive, is horizontal
Probability, from low to high, is vertical
Moving left to right, or very negative outcome or risk but low probabilitity
Is Nuclear War, clearly the worse possible outcome, but hopefully very unlikely
An economic crisis due to a default, slightly more likely, but at least not the end of humanity
The possibility that Trump is impeached, chances are better
That he bring embarasment – well that ship has sailed
On the more positive but increasingly unlikely side
He could negotiate some good deals
And build some cool stuff
And maybe even get Mexico to build a wall
Who knows. Trump is very unprictable, and it’s hard to predict what will happen
But tonight, we are going to stick to the economic benefits, because this is what we believe the market is reacting to. And we think some of his policies have merit.
See disclaimer
There are basically five pillars to Dr. Trump platform
Deregualtion
Corporate Tax reform
Infrastructure spending
Trade
Immigration
The first two he should get down and they are positive for the economy
The next two are less clear
And the last makes no sense what’s so ever
Deregulation
As you can see in this chart according to surveys, increased regulation is cited as one the number one issues facing small businsess
And small businesses create more than 80% of all new jobs
According to GM University
Regulations reduce GDP by 0.8%/yr
And the economy would be 25% larger if no additional regulations since 1980
According to the World Bank
The U.S. ranks 51st for ease of starting a business
In 2012 it took 40 days to get a construction permit
Last year it took 81 days
In 1950 – 5% of workers required a license or certificate
Last year - 30% require some kind of certification to do their work
Trump has already implemented executive order to decrease regulation
For every new regulation created, two will have to be eliminated
This should increase productivity and growth
Next pillar is corporate tax reform
As you can see in this chart, tax rates around the world have been falling, while the US has been stuck at 35%, one of the highest in the world
As a result companies have been leaving the U.S. tax jurisdiction by buying companies outside the U.S. and moving their head office and manufacturing offshore.
While the plan hasn’t been finalized, Trump and the Republicans want to lower the Tax rate and level the playing field.
They are also to help US companies re-patriate the nearly $2 trillion in cash stuck in foreign subsidies that can’t be brought back to America without incurring the higher US Tax rates.
The problem is lowering taxes without generating any offsetting revenue will increase the US budget deficit, as see in the chart on the right.
Anything Trump can do to increase corporate profits, through either lower taxes, and/or bring more companies back to the US, is good for growth
At the very least, look for some kind of legislation or tax holiday to get $2 trillion back to the US.
Even at a lower tax rate, bringing this $2 trillion back onshore will create tax revenue
And one use for it could be instrastructure spending
This one should be easy – during the campaing both parties were promising spending on instrastructure.
Not only would this satisfy Larry Summers call for more fiscal spending, but it is badly needed
As seen on the chart on the left, U.S. instructure is badly in need of an upgrade, with government assets at their oldest age on record, and private assets at their oldest since 1955
This hurts productivity
The average US Commuter wastse over 40 hours a year in traffic
As per Larry Summers, it could also give a boost to demand
Trump want to spend $1 trillion, which over 10 years could employ 800,000 for 5 years
Moody’s estimates the impact on GDP would be even higher
The only problem?
Again, how to pay for it
As seen in the chart on the right, there is an estaimted $4.6 trillion need in order to bring America’s instructure up to finactioning levels
Just $1 trillion would add 5% to debt
4.6 trillion would increase debt 25%
Fincally respsonible Republicans won’t go for this.
He will get some of this, but private funded energy related infrascture is the best bet.
Trade is more controversial.
This chart is basically why Trump won the election, and Hilary lost.
It shows globally from 1998 to 2008 which income group experienced the highest increase in income. Who did the best were people in the top 1%, the very rich, and people around the 60th percentile, which on a global perspective was dominated by the Asian middle class, or China. The group that had virtually no income growth was those in around the 80th percentile , which was domininated by the US middle class.
In fact McKinsey believes 81% of Americans have had flat or declining income over the past decade.
This chart is also referred to as the “Elephant” chart
Trade is a big reason why income have stagnated in America,
and as you can see from this chart, American companies are not competing on a level playing field
And it’s not just tariffs.
The US is one of the few countries in the worlds that does have a VAT tax.
If a US companies exports to Mexico, at 20% VAT is immediately levied
When Mexican companies export to the US, however, they are credited back to the 20% VAT under the assumption that a VAT will be applied by the destination country, which in the case of the US, is not.
The following chart show the total Average tariff and VAT of countries around the world. The darker the blue, the higher the countries average tariff and VAT.
In the case of the US, the colour is very light, with tariffs averaging only 9%
China is darker, at 27%
Japan is actually quite low, at 12%
Germany is 24%
Mexico is 23%
Trump is right about trade being unfair, he is wrong to blame it on free trade deal, as only Mexico has a trade deal with the US
The US has a trade deficit of about half a trillion dollars, $250 million is China
US needs to level the playing field and help US wages grow
Dr. King would agree.
Immigration we just flat out don’t get.
Economic growth is basically population growth plus productivity growth
We have already discussed the challenge for productivity growth, but population growth faces an even bigger hurdle
The US population growth has been decelerating and only grew 0.7% in 2016
Pew Research estimates grwoth will decline to 0.3% in 2020-2040
If immigration is reduced by 500,000 +0.1%
If immigration reduced by 1,000,000 -0.1%
As for undocumented workers
Most are 18 – 64 years old – the right demographic
70% work in agriculture or construction
As can be seen on this chart, the US is falling behind when it comes to education
According to the Program for International Student Assessment, or PISA scores in 2015
The US scored 38 out of 71 countries in Math
39 out of 71 in reading
And 24 out of 71 in Science
It is estimated the US will need 1 million more STEM graduates than it currently produces
Need to increase STEM degrees by 34%
Manufacturing jobs require more skilled workers
2000 – 53% or workers only had high school
2015 – only 9% had only a high school education
Overall, most of Trump policies should help long term growth
Even if just a few of them get passed, it’s good for growth
But we have some that he appears to have forgotten
First, healthcare
Yes, the Republicans are trying to replace Obamacare, but at best it will be a minor improvement
What is striking is how much money the US spends versus outcomes.
As seen in this chart, the US spends by far the most of any country on healthcare but has lower life expectancy than most developed nations, and it’s been getting worse.
Nothing that has been discussed by Trump or the Republican is going to change this.
Healthier workers are more productive workers
Obesity, drug abuse, all play a role
But if you want to make the economy great again, America needs to get a better return for the money they are spending on healthcare
According to Gallup, since 1980, inflation has increased 250%, while healthcare spending has increased 500%
Education spending actually increased 900%, which is where we will go next.
Trump has mentioned no plans to tackle out of control entitlement spending program, and in fact has promised to leave them in tact.
Every politician in Washington knows the current program spending is unsustainable
As seen in this chart the aging population means Health Care spending and social security spending over the next 30 years in projected to grow such that it would leave very little room for any discretionary spending without incurring greater and greater budget deficit.
The US will eventually hit a fiscal wall if this is not addressed.
Finally, monetary policy needs to be normalized
Right now, the over night Fed fund rate is 75 – 100 basis points
As this chart shows, during a recession the Fed normally lowers rates by 500 basis points
This was one of the reasons the market was anxious earlier in 2016
The economy was softening, but there was really nothing the Fed could do
Negative rates in Japan proved detrimental and panicked the market
With the economy improving, the Fed needs to start normalizing interest ratres
Low rates hurt growth, they make businesses and consumers less confident and cause people to save more and spend less
They also increase the wealth gap as it inflates financial assets.
If the US is the only country that increases rates, then will cause the US dollar to go up
Need a plaza accord type agreement
Need to balance trade
The current bull market has been the second longest and fourth highest since the great depression
Part of this is due to Trump and his proposed policies
Some of which he might not get passed
Even if he gets some passed, however, this is good for markets
The economy was starting to reflate even before the election
Two additional concerns, however
Higher interest rates
Higher inflation
What does this mean for investing?
Interest rates are going to go up
If Trump is really successful they could go up a meaningful amount
This is bad for bonds
Equities, however, should benefit from a stronger reflating econony.
Two concerns, however: Inflation and higher interest rates have historically been bad for equity valuations
We think investors have time on both
Higher interest rates hurts valuation, but only when interest rates start to slow economic growth, which historically has been when the 10 year hits 5%
We are currently at 2.5%
Same with inflation. Historically spikes in inflation have corresponded with declining PE ratios, but historically only when inflation has spiked above 4%. The sweet spot for valuations, is actually when inflation is between 1% to 3%, as was the case in the early 2000’s, and where we are today.
There will come a time if the economy continues to strengthen that we become more concerned with inflation and interest rates, but for now, both are actually quite accomodative, leaving valuations to drift higher with a growing economy
The current environment could also be becoming more attractive to active management.
Much has been written about investors flocking to low fee ETF’s that track an index versus active fundemental managers that are unable to beat their benchmarks, but a normalization of monetary policy and higher interest rates, should help active managers relative performance
As seen in this chart, active managers tend to out-perform when stocks start to become more uncorrelated.
When the cost of capital is close to zero, its harder to differentiate a good company for a bad one.
Higher interest rates will begin to separate the good and the bad, which should favor active managers
Of course as mentioned before, it also means that the normal business cycle will again become a factor, meaning the economy and stock market will eventually turn lower. The current bull market at over 8 years old is the second longest since 1928 largely for this reason
In Summary
The economy has started to reflate, which is why we saw stocks and yields start to move higher mid way thru last year
Leaving his unpredictable character aside, Trumps policies should help growth
There is some short term risk the market gets a head of itself and discounts too much and Trump falls short on various programs
But with the Republicans controlling congress as well, he should make some progress
Because of this, risk for the market is to the upside
This also means, however, that monetary policy should start to normalize and inflation could move higher
This would normally be bad for stock, but not at these levels
We would still favor stocks over bonds
We also think active management will have better relative performance, finally
And as the business cycle advances, asset class performances will deviate more, and diversification will become even more important.