This document analyzes trends in student achievement on Ethiopia's National Learning Assessments (NLA) in grades 4 and 8 from 2004 to 2012. It finds that student performance generally declined over this period in most subjects and demographics. For grade 4, reading saw the largest decrease (21.53%), while English scores were mostly unchanged. Males and students in urban areas saw greater declines than females and rural students. For grade 8, chemistry saw the greatest decline (14.57%), while biology scores decreased slightly. Males scored higher than females in most subjects. The document identifies factors like sex, location, and region that contributed to student achievement on the NLAs and implications for education quality.

1. Trends in Ethiopian National Learning
Assessments
1
Desalegn Chalchisa Jebena (PhD)
desalegn.chalchisa@aau.edu.et
Nagoya University Visiting professor
January 2014
2/10/2014

2. Structure of Presentation
2
1. Purpose of the study
2. Ethiopian Education System and some data on
Primary Education
3. Trends in the Ethiopian NLAs
4. NLA Proficiency standards
5. Factors affecting students achievement in
Ethiopian NLA
6. Implications of the NLAs for quality of
education
2/10/2014

3. 1. Purpose of the study
The main purpose of this study was to analyze the trends of students’
achievement in the core academic subject areas by region, sex and
location for the second, third and fourth National Learning
Assessments (NLAs). The data used in this analysis were compiled
from the reports of the NLAs available at the website
(http://www.nae.gov.et/Public/MiscellaneousDownloads.aspx ) of the
National Educational Assessment and Examination Agency (NEAEA).
NB. No actual database was obtained and they are very confidential to
be accessible to researchers.
The specific objectives of this study were to:
• present relevant data on Ethiopian primary education
• compare the NLA trends of grades 4 and 8 students achievement in
the core subjects by sex, location and region.
• identify the major variables that contributed to the students
achievement in Ethiopian NLAs.
• comment on the statistical reports of the Grade 4 and 8 Ethiopain
NLAs.
2/10/2014 3

4. 2. The Ethiopian Education System and some data on Primary Education
The Ethiopian Education System
Level Sub-level Grade Age Description National examinations
Kindergarten - - 4-6 Covers only about 4.5% -
Primary
First cycle 1-4 7-10
Provides 8 years primary education
NLA at the end of grade 4
Second
cycle
5-8 11-14 NLA at the end of grade 8
Secondary
First cycle 9-10 15 and 16
Provides general secondary
education
Ethiopian General School Leaving
Certificate Examination (EGSLCE)
Second
cycle
11-12 17 and 18 Provides preparatory education
Ethiopian University Entrance
Examination (EUEE)
TVET - - 17-19
Provides 3 years technical and
vocational education in agriculture,
teacher training, engineering and
technology, health and commerce.
Certificate of Competence (COC)
is awarded after examination
Higher
Education
Undergradu
ate Program
19-25
3 years for social sciences BA/BSc. degree
5 years for Law and Engineering
LLB (Bachelors of Law) and BSc
in Engineering
6 years for medical sciences MD in Medicine
MA
Graduate
Program
Age varies 2 years program MA/Med/ MSc./LLM degrees
PhD
Graduate
Program
Age varies 4 Years Program
PhD and Specialty Certificates in
Medicine
2/10/2014 4

5. Primary education data
Net enrolment ratio primary grade 1-8 (2008/09-2011/12)
86.0
84.6
83.7
87.0
86.8
80.7
81.3
80.5
83.5
83.9
83.4
83.0
82.1
85.3 85.4
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10) 2010/11 2011/12
Male
Female
Total
2/10/2014 5

6. Primary education data …
Primary Repetition Rate by Gender (Grades 1-8)
6.6
7.0
4.7
7.2
8.7
5.7
6.3
5.2
10.0
8.2
6.1
6.7
4.9
8.5 8.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1999 E.C. (2006/07) 2000 E.C. (2007/08) 2001 E.C. (2008/09) 2002 E.C. (2009/10) 2003 E.C. (2010/11)
Boys
Girls
Total
2/10/2014 6

7. Primary and secondary education data …
Primary (Grades 1-8) Drop out Rate
13.1
15.9
18.2
13.3
17.4
11.6
13.2
19.0
13.5
15.1
12.4
14.6
18.6
13.1
16.3
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
1999 E.C. (2006/07) 2000 E.C. (2007/08) 2001 E.C. (2008/09) 2002 E.C. (2009/10) 2003 E.C. (2010/11)
Boys
Girls
Total
2/10/2014 7

8. 3. Trends in Ethiopian NLA
 The Ethiopian National Learning Assessment (ENLA) is a periodic
assessment of student progress conducted by the Ministry of
Education and coordinated by the National Educational Assessment
and Examination Agency (NEAEA).
 The assessment covers four core subject areas at grade 4: Reading,
English, mathematics, and Env. Sciences and five subject areas at
grade 8: English, Mathematics, Biology, Chemistry and Physics.
 The NLA is Conducted every four years beginning from 2000.
 In 2010 the grade 10 and 12 NLA were introduced which is not
treated in this presentation.
 The Next graphs presents the trends of the 4th and 8th grades for
the second, third and fourth NLAs conducted in 2004, 2008 and
2012 respectively by core subject areas, sex, location and region.
2/10/2014 8

9. Trend of grade 4 students achievement by core subjects in NLA
64.49
38.68 39.7
51.74
48.48
40.3
43.9
36.5
42.6
40.9
42.96
38.87
37.06
41.21
40.06
Reading English Mathematics Env. Science Composite
2012
2008
2004
2/10/2014 9

10. Table 1: percent increase/decrease in grade 4 students’
achievement in core subjects in NLA
subjects
Year
Diff. % + (-)
2004 2012
Reading
64.49 42.96 -21.53 33.39
English
38.68 38.87 0.19 0.49
Mathematics
39.70 37.06 -2.64 6.65
Env. Science 51.74 41.21 -10.53 0.35
Composite 48.48 40.06 -8.42 17.37
2/10/2014 10

11. Trends in 4 students achievement in NLA by sex
65.71 63.00
40.55
35.66
41.68
36.67
53.43
49.61 50.14
46.12
37.60
35.20
44.10
43.80 40.40
40.20
43.30
41.80 41.40
40.30
43.23
43.26
39.30
38.13 37.88
36.04
41.52
41.00 40.45
39.56
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
Reading English Mathematics Env. Science Composite
2012
2008
2004
2/10/2014 11

12. Table 2: percent increase/decrease in grade 4 students’
achievement in core subjects in NLA by
Subjects Sex Year Diff. % + (-)
2004 2012
Reading
Male 65.71 43.23 -22.48 34.21
Female 63.00 43.26 -19.74 31.33
English
Male 40.55 39.30 -1.25 3.08
Female 35.66 38.13 2.47 6.93
Mathematics
Male 41.68 37.88 -3.80 9.12
Female 36.67 36.04 -0.63 1.72
Env. Science
Male 53.43 41.52 -11.91 22.29
Female 49.61 41.00 -8.61 17.36
Composite
Male 50.14 40.45 -9.69 19.33
Female 46.12 39.56 -6.56 14.22
2/10/2014 12

13. Trends in 4 students achievement in NLA by location
67.44
63.01
38.87 38.58 40.38 39.35
51.49 51.87 49.28 48.09
37.30
35.50
45.10
42.30 40.30 40.20
43.30 41.70
41.60
40.00
40.25 46.15
37.53 40.44
36.32 37.54
39.65 43.32
38.42 41.87
Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural
Reading English Mathematics Env. Science Composite
2012
2008
2004
2/10/2014 13

14. Table 3: percent increase/decrease in grade 4 students’
achievement in core subjects in NLA by
subjects Sex
Year
Diff. % + (-)
2004 2012
Reading
Urban 67.44 40.25
-22.48 40.32
Rural 63.01 46.15
-19.74 26.76
English
Urban 38.87 37.53
-1.25 3.45
Rural 38.58 40.44
2.47 4.82
Mathematics
Urban 40.38 36.32
-3.80 10.05
Rural 39.35 37.54
-0.63 4.60
Env. Science
Urban 51.49 39.65
-11.91 22.99
Rural 51.87 43.32
-8.61 16.48
Composite
Urban 49.28 38.42
-9.69 22.04
Rural 48.09 41.87
-6.56 12.93
2/10/2014 14

15. Trends in grade 4 students achievement in NLA by region
45.87
49.64
52.67
47.83 47.18
43.69
47.27
0
51.29 53.69
46.2 48.48
41.8 39.3
45.2
42.3
33.8 39.5
42.5
34.3
38.9
44
40.9 40.9
38.2 36.31
43.51
38.5
41.21 36.32
42.21
32.05
40.23
52.26
38.6
40.06
2012
2008
2004
2/10/2014 15

16. Table 4: percent increase/decrease in grade 4 students’
achievement in core subjects in NLA by Region
Region 2004 2012 Diff. % + (-)
Tigray 45.87 38.20 -7.67 16.72
Afar 49.64 36.31 -13.33 26.85
Amhara 52.67 43.51 -9.16 17.39
Oromia 47.83 38.50 -9.33 19.51
Somali 47.18 41.21 -5.97 12.65
Ben-Gumuz 43.69 36.32 -7.37 16.87
SNNPR 47.27 42.21 -5.06 10.70
Gambella* 34.30 32.05 -2.25 6.56
Harari 51.29 40.23 -11.06 21.56
Addis Ababa 53.69 52.26 -1.43 2.66
Dire Dawa 46.20 38.60 -7.60 16.45
Nation 48.48 40.06 -8.42 17.37
2/10/2014 16

17. Trend of grade 8 students achievement by core subjects in NLA
41.07 40.93 41.34 40.1
35.32
39.74
38.3
34.7
38.4
34.1
32.2
35.6
42.1
36.44
36.87
25.53
34.45
35.32
English Mathematics Biology Chemistry Physics Composite
2012
2008
2004
2/10/2014 17

18. Table 5: percent increase/decrease in grade 8 students’
achievement in core subjects in NLA by Region
subjects
Year
Diff. % + (-)
2004 2012
English 41.07 42.10 1.03 2.51
Mathematics 40.93 36.44 -4.49 10.97
Biology 41.34 36.87 -4.47 10.81
Chemistry 40.10 25.53 -14.57 36.33
Physics 35.32 34.45 -0.87 2.46
Composite 39.74 35.32 -4.42 11.12
2/10/2014 18

19. Trends in 8 students achievement in NLA by gender
42.64
37.94
43.12
36.54
43.17
37.69
42.02
36.15 36.83
32.30
41.56
36.13
40.30
35.50
35.90
31.50
40.20
35.50
36.30
32.40 33.50
30.20
37.30
33.10
38.69
35.73
25.88
25.38
44.16
40.32 36.37
36.87 36.19
33.16
36.36
34.50
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
English Mathematics Biology Chemistry Physics Composite
2012
2008
2004
2/10/2014 19

20. Table 6: percent increase/decrease in grade 8 students’
achievement in core subjects in NLA by sex
subjects Sex
Year
Diff. % + (-)
2004 2012
English
Male 42.64 38.69 -3.95 9.26
Female 37.94 35.73 -2.21 5.82
Mathematics
Male 43.12 25.88 -17.24 39.98
Female 36.54 25.38 -11.16 30.54
Biology
Male 43.17 44.16 0.99 2.29
Female 37.69 40.32 2.63 6.98
Chemistry
Male 42.02 36.37 -5.65 13.45
Female 36.15 36.87 0.72 1.99
Physics
Male 36.83 36.19 -0.64 1.74
Female 32.3 33.16 0.86 2.66
Composite
Male 41.56 36.36 -5.20 12.51
Female 36.13 34.5 -1.63 4.51
2/10/2014 20

21. Trends in 8 students achievement in NLA by location
Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Rural Urban Urban Rural
English Mathematics Biology Chemistry Physics Composite
2012
2008
2004
2/10/2014 21

22. Table 7: percent increase/decrease in grade 8 students’
achievement in core subjects in NLA by Location
subjects Sex
Year
Diff. % + (-)
2004 2012
English
Urban 40.91 35.35 -5.56 13.59
Rural 41.24 38.95 -2.29 5.55
Mathematics
Urban 41.49 25.63 -15.86 38.23
Rural 40.35 25.63 -14.72 36.48
Biology
Urban 43.46 41.68 -1.78 4.10
Rural 39.18 42.95 3.77 9.62
Chemistry
Urban 41.41 37.12 -4.29 10.36
Rural 38.76 35.87 -2.89 7.46
Physics
Rural 36.51 34.26 -2.25 6.16
Urban 34.1 35.06 0.96 2.82
Composite
Urban 40.76 34.95
-5.81 14.25
Rural 38.71 35.85 -2.86 7.39
2/10/2014 22

23. Trends in grade 8 students achievement in NLA by region
2012
2008
2004
2/10/2014 23

24. Table 8: percent increase/decrease in grade 8 students’
achievement in core subjects in NLA by Location
Region 2004 2008 Diff. % + (-)
Tigray 43.10 38.67 -4.43 10.28
Afar 31.56 31.60 0.04 0.13
Amhara 43.00 35.47 -7.53 17.51
Oromia 43.22 36.54 -6.68 15.46
Somali 38.63 33.74 -4.89 12.66
Ben-Gumuz 33.65 34.16 0.51 1.52
SNNPR 37.37 36.93 -0.44 1.18
Gambella 0.00 31.15 -4.45 14.45
Harari 41.60 34.46 -7.14 17.16
Addis Ababa 36.65 38.36 1.71 4.67
Dire Dawa 38.38 35.51 -2.87 7.48
Nation 39.74 35.33 -4.41 11.10
2/10/2014 24

25. 4. NLA Proficiency standards
• Three levels of proficiency standards were used to report
the NLA: Below basic, basic and proficient.
• The proficiency levels categorization was made in reference
to standard z – distributions.
• The below basic category includes those students who fall
at or below a z standard score of zero; the basic category is
within a z standard score of zero and one standard
deviation above the mean; and proficient category includes
those students who fall above a z standard score of one
standard deviation above the mean.
• Ｆor a perfectly normally distributed data the percentage of
below basic, basic and proficient is 50.00%, 34.13% and
15.86 % respectively.
• The next graph presents the proficiency level for grade 8
on the 2012 NLA.
2/10/2014 25

26. Proficiency Standards in Ethiopian NLA
of Grade 8 (2012)
2/10/2014 26

27. 5. Factors affecting students
achievement in Ethiopian NLA
• A number of factors affecting students’ achievement were
considered in Ethiopian NLAs.
• Although little variations in the factors treated by Ethiopian
NLAs observed, there is variations in the statistical analysis
from one NLA to the other.
• This variation in the analysis makes difficult to analyze
trends those factors affecting students achievement.
• Generally the factors were categorized under student
background, teacher, student attitudes, parents and school
related factors.
• A snapshot from the grade 4 NLA to show the factors
treated by NLA is presented here under (General
Educational Quality Assurance and Examinations Agency,
2008, p. 65),
2/10/2014 27

28. Table 9: Factors affecting students achievement in
Ethiopian NLA ( …
2/10/2014 28

29. 6. Implications of the NLAs for
quality of education
• The study indicated that the mean scores of students achievement both
in grade 4 and 8 were decreased from during the period covered by NLAs.
This requires strong justification on the side of the NEAEA.
• The NEAEA should not change from one NLA to the other the tests used to
measure students achievements in core subjects, since the level of
difficulty of the items profoundly affects the mean scores on NLA.
• The procedures for the categorization of the proficiency standards should
be changed fro m the use of standard deviations method to the standards
of achievement that show the levels of students achievement and are
determined by experts .
• There should not be variations in the factors considered affecting students
achievement and the same appropriate and meaningful analysis should
be conducted from one NLA to the other NLA.
• More appropriate statistics such as effect size analysis should be included
where there are significant statistical results were obtained, as effect size
shows the degree of their effect or differences.
2/10/2014 29

30. Arigatou gozaimashita!
Thank you!
Questions or comments?
2/10/2014 30