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Sep 16 | Session 1 | GBIH
- 1. XAU/USD Remains OnThe Defensive Near $1800 Mark
- 2. Points To BeDiscussed Today: • Gold Snaps Two-day Uptrend • Gold Struggled To Capitalize • Gold Prices Stall Gains • Gold Takes Cues From The Major Central Bank’s • Gold (XAU/USD) • Gold Technical Analysis • Gold Price & Chart
- 3. Gold Snaps Two-dayUptrend • Gold snaps two-day uptrend to consolidate the biggest daily jump in a week. • US Treasury yields recover after declining the most since mid August. • US Inflation data fails to tame the tapering chatters despite easing in August.
- 4. Gold Struggled ToCapitalize • Gold struggled to capitalize on the previous day's post-US CPI strong move up from two- week lows and faced rejection near the very important 200-day SMA on Wednesday. • The modest intraday pullback dragged the XAU/USD to fresh daily lows during the early European session, though lacked follow- through below the $1,800 mark.
- 5. Gold Struggled ToCapitalize - I • A positive risk tone, along with a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, acted as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal, though a combination of factors helped limit the downside. • Tuesday's softer-than-expected US consumer inflation figures eased fears for an earlier tapering by the Fed.
- 6. A Global EconomicSlowdown Extended • Apart from this, worries about the fast-spreading Delta variant and a global economic slowdown extended some support to traditional safe-haven assets, including gold. • The market concerns were further fueled by Wednesday's disappointing Chinese macro data, which underscored recent signs of slackening economic momentum in the world's second-largest economy. • This, in turn, warrants some caution for bearish traders.
- 7. Gold Prices StallGains • Gold prices stall gains near $1,800 after hitting a one-week high on Tuesday. • The drop in the US benchmark US Treasury yields supported the current upside movement in the prices the previous day. • The movement was primarily sponsored after the softer-than-expected rise in US Inflation data revealed yesterday, which raised the doubts over the Fed’s timeline to taper monetary stimulus.
- 8. Gold Takes CuesFrom The Major Central Bank’s • Weaker equity market and concerns on the rapid spread of the coronavirus delta variant and its impact on the global economic recovery continue to lend support near the lower levels. • Gold takes cues from the major central bank’s views on tapering and economic stimulus.
- 9. The US dollar& Precious Metal • The strength of the US dollar keeps the precious metal gains under check. • A higher USD valuation makes gold expansive for other currencies holders.
- 10. Gold (XAU/USD) • Gold(XAU/USD) fades the strongest run-up in a week above $1,800, down 0.15% intraday around $1,801, during Wednesday’s Asian session. • The yellow metal jumped to the week’s high, also broke the monotony surrounding $1,800, after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) miss clouded Fed tapering concerns the previous day. • Even so, a recheck of the details suggests that the inflation figures are high enough to favor Fed hawks when they meet the next week.
- 11. The US CPIDropped • The US CPI dropped the most since January on monthly basis to 0.3% versus 0.4% expected and 0.5% prior. • The CPI ex Food & Energy also dropped below 0.3% expected and previous readings to 0.1% during August, marking the biggest fall in six months. • Fed’s readiness to accept a bit higher inflation figures, terming it ‘transitory’, seems to be at test with almost double YoY figures than the US central bank’s previous target range of near 2.0%.
- 12. US Treasury YieldsDropped • Following the key data release, the US 10- year Treasury yields dropped the most in a month before recently recovering to 1.29%. • It should be noted that the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains by the press time even as the Wall Street benchmarks closed in the red the previous day.
- 13. The Fed Tapering& Geopolitical Tensions • In addition to the re-think over the Fed tapering, covid woes and geopolitical tensions also weigh on the market sentiment, underpinning the safe-haven demand of the US Treasury bonds, which in turn weigh on its yields. • Although the virus numbers from the Asia-Pacific region have eased of late, slower jabbing and doubts over the Delta variant spread challenge the market sentiment. • Also weighing on the risk appetite, as well as gold, are hurricanes in the US and political tension in Canada and the Middle East.
- 14. Gold Traders KeepsThere Eyes On More Clues • Looking forward, gold traders will keep their eyes on the more clues to confirm the next week’s tapering from the Fed. • The same highlights Thursday’s Retail Sales and Friday’s Michigan Consumer Confidence. • For today, risk catalysts and the US Industrial Production for August, expected to ease from 0.9% to 0.5%, could offer intermediate moves.
- 15. Gold Prices FailedTo Provide A Daily Closing • Despite crossing an immediate trading range between $1,782 and $1,804, gold prices failed to provide a daily closing beyond the 200- DMA level near $1,809. • Also challenges the gold buyer is the sluggish MACD and RSI conditions, as well as double tops surrounding $1,834.
- 16. Gold Remains Firmer •Meanwhile, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July- August fall, around $1,777, adds to the downside filters, other than the multiple lows marked recently near $1,782. • It’s worth observing that five-week-old horizontal support of around $1,758 will challenge gold bears below $1,777. • Overall, gold remains firmer but needs to cross the 200-DMA for giving controls to the bulls
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- 20. XAU/USD Remains OnThe Defensive Near $1800 Mark
- 21. Thanks for listening XAU/USDRemains On The Defensive Near $1800 Mark