September 27 I Session 1 I GBIH
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Gold prices have failed to retake key support levels and remain below former uptrends from 2019, 2020, and 2021. Fundamental conditions for gold are unfavorable in the near-term as US Treasury yields and real yields rise, acting as a headwind for gold. Technical indicators on daily, weekly, and monthly charts show gold in a bearish posture with momentum declining. While retail traders remain net-long, their positioning is less extreme than in previous weeks, suggesting the current downtrend in gold prices may soon reverse higher.
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September 27 I Session 2 I GBIH
Gold prices fell last week as Treasury yields rose after the FOMC meeting signaled rate hikes may begin in 2022. Investors favored the US dollar over gold. This week, markets will watch the PCE inflation data and initial jobless claims for signals about the strength of inflation and the labor market, which could impact expectations for Fed policy and Treasury yields. Gold has been in a downtrend recently as yields rise, facing resistance around $1835.
September 26 I Session 1 I GBIH
Gold ended the week little changed as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's revised projections showing interest rate hikes could begin in 2022 rather than 2023. Gold fell sharply after the FOMC meeting acknowledged inflationary pressures will likely persist and signaled tapering of asset purchases could start in November. Technically, gold is at a critical support level, where its low this week matched both the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements from longer-term data sets, representing an important Fibonacci harmonic that makes this price point more significant.
September 24 I Session 2 I GBIH
The document discusses the impact of the recent FOMC meeting on gold prices, which fell sharply as the Fed signaled it would begin tapering asset purchases this year and raising interest rates by late 2022. This makes gold less appealing as its yield advantage narrows. Near-term, gold faces resistance around $1,780 and further declines could see prices reach $1,700, though upside risks could emerge if inflation or economic data surprises the Fed. Technical indicators are also bearish on gold in the medium-term.
September 24 I Session 1 I GBIH
The price of gold rebounded earlier this week but failed to break through resistance as the Fed revealed plans to potentially taper its quantitative easing program starting mid-2022. Gold faces strong resistance levels and its broader trend remains downward. The Fed meeting provided insight that interest rates could rise, reducing gold's appeal. Traders are awaiting the Fed's decision and its impact on gold and Treasury yields.
November 7 I Session 1 I GBIH
The document discusses the technical outlook for gold prices and their relationship with the US dollar and volatility. It notes that gold faces tough conditions in the near term as the dollar is strengthened by rising yields and risk appetite remains firm. Gold needs to rise above $1810 to show technical support, and the next few weeks may be difficult seasonally. Recent signs show gold's relationship with volatility returning to historical levels, though gold prices have not made significant technical progress and it remains unclear if $1835 resistance can be cleared.
November 8 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold rose 1.5% in October despite higher bond yields and strong equity markets. Four key drivers of gold's performance are economic expansion, market risk, opportunity cost, and momentum. US mint gold coin demand is on track to be the strongest in over two decades, suggesting solid investment demand. Looking forward, some central banks are beginning to raise rates or taper asset purchases, which could impact gold prices depending on implications for interest rates.
November 11 l Session 1 l GBIH
The gold price faces rejection at key resistance levels ahead of important US inflation data. Analysts predict gold is on the verge of a major breakout if it can close above $1,834, while the US CPI reading could show the fastest inflation since 1990. Bank analysts say gold prices are poised to break out of their downtrend as real yields plummet and positioning is vulnerable to a squeeze if inflation comes in hotter than expected.
November 25 l Session 2 l GBIH
- Gold prices have fallen sharply this week due to expectations of higher interest rates from the Fed and deteriorating correlations between gold volatility and prices.
- Technically, gold broke below key support levels, erasing bullish signals and potentially starting a deeper decline back to $1,770 support. Sentiment data also shows traders are heavily net long, suggesting prices may continue falling.
- Near-term technical indicators are extremely oversold on lower timeframes but still heading lower, with resistance around $1,792 and support at $1,771. The overall technical structure has weakened, implying gold could trade choppily within its range for now.
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September 27 I Session 2 I GBIH
Gold prices fell last week as Treasury yields rose after the FOMC meeting signaled rate hikes may begin in 2022. Investors favored the US dollar over gold. This week, markets will watch the PCE inflation data and initial jobless claims for signals about the strength of inflation and the labor market, which could impact expectations for Fed policy and Treasury yields. Gold has been in a downtrend recently as yields rise, facing resistance around $1835.
September 26 I Session 1 I GBIH
Gold ended the week little changed as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's revised projections showing interest rate hikes could begin in 2022 rather than 2023. Gold fell sharply after the FOMC meeting acknowledged inflationary pressures will likely persist and signaled tapering of asset purchases could start in November. Technically, gold is at a critical support level, where its low this week matched both the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements from longer-term data sets, representing an important Fibonacci harmonic that makes this price point more significant.
September 24 I Session 2 I GBIH
The document discusses the impact of the recent FOMC meeting on gold prices, which fell sharply as the Fed signaled it would begin tapering asset purchases this year and raising interest rates by late 2022. This makes gold less appealing as its yield advantage narrows. Near-term, gold faces resistance around $1,780 and further declines could see prices reach $1,700, though upside risks could emerge if inflation or economic data surprises the Fed. Technical indicators are also bearish on gold in the medium-term.
September 24 I Session 1 I GBIH
The price of gold rebounded earlier this week but failed to break through resistance as the Fed revealed plans to potentially taper its quantitative easing program starting mid-2022. Gold faces strong resistance levels and its broader trend remains downward. The Fed meeting provided insight that interest rates could rise, reducing gold's appeal. Traders are awaiting the Fed's decision and its impact on gold and Treasury yields.
November 7 I Session 1 I GBIH
The document discusses the technical outlook for gold prices and their relationship with the US dollar and volatility. It notes that gold faces tough conditions in the near term as the dollar is strengthened by rising yields and risk appetite remains firm. Gold needs to rise above $1810 to show technical support, and the next few weeks may be difficult seasonally. Recent signs show gold's relationship with volatility returning to historical levels, though gold prices have not made significant technical progress and it remains unclear if $1835 resistance can be cleared.
November 8 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold rose 1.5% in October despite higher bond yields and strong equity markets. Four key drivers of gold's performance are economic expansion, market risk, opportunity cost, and momentum. US mint gold coin demand is on track to be the strongest in over two decades, suggesting solid investment demand. Looking forward, some central banks are beginning to raise rates or taper asset purchases, which could impact gold prices depending on implications for interest rates.
November 11 l Session 1 l GBIH
The gold price faces rejection at key resistance levels ahead of important US inflation data. Analysts predict gold is on the verge of a major breakout if it can close above $1,834, while the US CPI reading could show the fastest inflation since 1990. Bank analysts say gold prices are poised to break out of their downtrend as real yields plummet and positioning is vulnerable to a squeeze if inflation comes in hotter than expected.
November 25 l Session 2 l GBIH
- Gold prices have fallen sharply this week due to expectations of higher interest rates from the Fed and deteriorating correlations between gold volatility and prices.
- Technically, gold broke below key support levels, erasing bullish signals and potentially starting a deeper decline back to $1,770 support. Sentiment data also shows traders are heavily net long, suggesting prices may continue falling.
- Near-term technical indicators are extremely oversold on lower timeframes but still heading lower, with resistance around $1,792 and support at $1,771. The overall technical structure has weakened, implying gold could trade choppily within its range for now.
November 12 l Session 1 l GBIH
The document discusses gold prices rising overnight after a hotter-than-expected US inflation print. Gold consolidated gains before potentially pushing higher as inflation hedging demand increased. Key support and resistance levels are noted. Sentiment data shows traders remain overall long on gold but less so than last week, suggesting potential for further price declines.
November 11 l Session 2 l GBIH
- Gold prices have broken above key resistance levels and are poised to continue their bullish breakout as short-term fundamentals have improved. Technical indicators are signaling strong bullish momentum with prices above the daily EMA envelope and MACD rising.
- The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern that has been forming since June could be realized if gold prices are able to sustain gains above $1835, opening the path to further upside over the coming months.
- While retail traders remain net-long, suggesting the potential for further price falls, recent reductions in net-long positioning and shifts in sentiment may signal an impending reversal to the upside for gold prices despite crowd pessimism.
August 13 I Session 2 I GBIH
The document discusses gold prices and the outlook for gold. It notes that gold dropped to a 15-month low of $1,662 after a flash crash but rebounded to around $1,759. The GDX ETF and gold miners also saw declines. The outlook for gold remains weak as central banks scale back stimulus, which is a negative environment for gold. It will be key for gold prices to overcome resistance at $1,752-1,760 to consolidate higher. Overall momentum indicators still show no clear bullish bias for gold.
November 12 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices turned bullish as falling US bond yields supported gold and the price broke above technical resistance levels. While the dollar was stronger overall against other currencies last week, falling yields had a bigger impact on gold prices than the dollar. Gold could continue higher if yields remain below 1.5% but may lose interest if yields rise above 1.6%. Technically, gold closed above key moving averages and resistance levels, pointing to potential for further gains in the near term.
October 25 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold prices have been range-bound in recent weeks, stuck between rising US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar. Technical indicators suggest gold will continue sideways trading in the near-term. While historically gold benefits from higher volatility, falling volatility is a bearish sign. Most analysts foresee gold prices remaining in a range, with support around $1763 and resistance at $1800, as technical indicators on daily, weekly and monthly timeframes show no strong directional bias. Sentiment analysis finds traders remain net-long, suggesting downside risk for prices according to a contrarian view.
August 10 I Session 2 I GBIH
The document discusses several factors that may impact the price of gold, including inflation, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risks like war, interest rates, and supply and demand dynamics. While inflation does not have a strong direct correlation with gold prices, currency depreciation and geopolitical instability tend to drive gold prices higher. Interest rates also have an inverse relationship with gold, as rising rates make bonds and dividends more attractive alternatives. Supply and demand from both institutional investors and countries like China and India are also important determinants of the gold price.
November 19 l Session 1 l GBIH
The document discusses whether gold has resumed its role as an inflation hedge. It notes that gold initially did not perform well against inflation this year but has recently strengthened. The key factor for gold is real yields on inflation-protected bonds, which have fallen significantly as investors rush to buy them, indirectly boosting gold prices. The document argues gold's rally could continue in the near term due to ongoing high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and seasonal factors. However, it says inflation may cool in the future as supply chains improve and rates rise, weakening the outlook for gold's performance over the longer term.
October 18 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold was one of the worst performing investments in 2021, declining almost 4% in September alone. Rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar in the third quarter were headwinds for gold prices. While gold is still seen as a hedge against inflation over the long run, its appeal as a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge have diminished recently due to expectations that the Fed will taper its monetary stimulus. However, if inflation proves more persistent than expected, demand for gold could rise again as an inflation hedge.
August 10 I Session 1 I GBIH
- The US dollar index has risen recently, causing gold and silver prices to plunge as the two assets are negatively correlated with the dollar.
- The dollar index bounced off an important support level and may have found a short-term bottom, signaling further gains that could pressure precious metals prices lower.
- Historically, summertime has seen major rallies in the dollar index, and its technical breakout suggests higher prices in the medium term, posing challenges for gold and silver. Investors should prepare for potential further declines in precious metals prices due to dollar strength.
July 1 I Session 2 I GBIH
The document discusses gold's recent performance and outlook. It notes that gold's brief rally after falling did not provide it strength, as the consolidation period was longer than past bottoms. Credit spreads declining to unprecedented low levels is typically bearish for gold, though it could signal economic problems later. While economic confidence remains high, supporting risk assets over gold for now, credit spreads may abruptly widen if a crisis emerges, benefiting gold.
November 24 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold prices fell significantly, dropping over 2% to near a 2-week low, as the dollar strengthened after Jerome Powell was renominated as Federal Reserve Chair, raising expectations that the Fed will stay on track to taper its economic support. Powell's renomination signaled that monetary policy would likely remain on its current path, boosting the dollar. While gold prices edged up slightly on the following day, the metal continued hovering near its recent low as the dollar remained strong on bets for earlier U.S. interest rate hikes.
November 16 l Session 1 l GBIH
- Gold prices rose last week as inflation outpaced nominal bond yields, pushing real yields lower. Further declines in real yields could support additional gains in gold prices.
- Key economic reports this week, including inflation data from the UK, Eurozone, and Canada, as well as US retail sales, could impact real yields and gold prices. Central bank commentary will also be watched for signals on inflation.
- Speculative investors have increased their net-long positions in gold futures to the highest level since June, according to CFTC data. However, IG client sentiment data suggests retail traders remain net-long, potentially signaling further downside for prices.
November 14 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold prices have surged to five-month highs as the recent US inflation data showed prices rising more than expected. While the data increased expectations of more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed, gold prices still rose, possibly signaling that markets fear the Fed is still lagging behind inflation. Technical analysis shows gold testing resistance and may challenge the $1,916 high. Sentiment data finds traders remain net long on gold despite being less long than recent weeks, suggesting gold prices could continue rising in the near term.
Oct 1 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices fell during Tuesday's trading session, breaking below the $1740 support level as US bond yields rose sharply. Higher yields benefit the US dollar, which gold is denominated in, putting pressure on prices. While gold rebounded slightly on Thursday, it remains under pressure from climbing Treasury yields. Several Fed officials commented that high inflation may require more aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 to address inflation concerns before the issue spirals out of control.
November 23 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold opened weakly on Monday but recovered from its lows in the first hour of trading. While gold prices remained under pressure from profit-taking, haven demand did not taper amid US and European economic uncertainties. The document discusses gold's spot price movements and outlook, noting gold may remain range-bound but to buy on dips as inflation and global uncertainties support the safe-haven asset. It provides charts showing bears eyeing a drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci level this week.
October 12 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold prices continue to face pressure below $1,760 as US Treasury yields rise, supporting the US dollar. Higher inflation concerns are keeping the dollar strong despite disappointing US jobs data, as the Fed is still expected to taper asset purchases in November. While a taper is likely, stagflation risks from ongoing supply issues could spark short covering in gold, which is seen as a hedge against rising inflation and slowing growth. Technical analysis indicates gold may test resistance at $1,790 first before a potential move higher toward its 200-day moving average.
October 12 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices were flat last week but the outlook remains bearish as the Fed is expected to begin tapering asset purchases in November. While US job growth in September missed estimates, rising wages may continue to bolster inflation. Gold faces resistance around $1765 as Treasury yields rise and the dollar strengthens, pressuring gold prices. Investors will watch the upcoming US CPI report for further clues on the Fed's policy outlook.
October 11 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold struggled to extend its rebound from $1,750 as the US dollar remained resilient despite a disappointing US jobs report. While gold spiked above $1,780 initially on the jobs data, the dollar index rebounded and gold failed to break above the 20-day simple moving average, with traders remaining focused on upcoming US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's tapering plans. Technical indicators point to continued downside risk for gold prices below key resistance levels.
November 8 l Session 1 l GBIH
The document discusses the monthly forex seasonality for November 2021. Key points:
- November is typically a good month for US stocks like the S&P 500, with average gains of over 2% for the past 5 and 10 years.
- It is typically a bad month for gold, with average losses of over 2.5% for gold prices against the US dollar.
- The US dollar is generally sideways trading in November, while the British pound and Japanese yen tend to perform well against the dollar. The euro typically underperforms.
November 21 l Session 1 l GBIH
- Gold broke out strongly in early November, potentially signaling the start of a macro rally. It has since consolidated above $1,877 support.
- For gold to turn bearish in the near-term, it will need a strong break below $1,834 support. Further pullbacks are unlikely and upside targets remain at $1,877 and $1,916 resistance levels.
- Gold rebounded as yields declined, but the strengthening US dollar may limit upside. Key support is at $1,850, with resistance around $1,863-$1,865. The technical outlook remains bullish overall for gold.
October 7 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices have rebounded slightly in early October but skepticism remains about the sustainability of the rebound. Technical indicators on daily and weekly timeframes show that gold remains in a bearish trend. Rising US Treasury yields are putting pressure on gold prices by reducing its appeal. Gold volatility also remains at an atypically high level relative to gold prices. Overall the analysis suggests gold prices may continue their decline with a potential target below $1675.
August 6 I Session 2 I GBIH
- Gold prices dropped to over a one-week low, trading around $1810 as the dollar strengthened on hawkish Fed comments about potentially tapering asset purchases later in 2021.
- Gold witnessed wild swings the previous day but ended modestly higher, as the dollar weakened on disappointing jobs data but then rebounded on a strong services sector report.
- Looking ahead, the Bank of England and US jobs reports could impact gold prices, with the Fed remaining focused on inflation and a potential tapering of support.
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November 12 l Session 1 l GBIH
The document discusses gold prices rising overnight after a hotter-than-expected US inflation print. Gold consolidated gains before potentially pushing higher as inflation hedging demand increased. Key support and resistance levels are noted. Sentiment data shows traders remain overall long on gold but less so than last week, suggesting potential for further price declines.
November 11 l Session 2 l GBIH
- Gold prices have broken above key resistance levels and are poised to continue their bullish breakout as short-term fundamentals have improved. Technical indicators are signaling strong bullish momentum with prices above the daily EMA envelope and MACD rising.
- The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern that has been forming since June could be realized if gold prices are able to sustain gains above $1835, opening the path to further upside over the coming months.
- While retail traders remain net-long, suggesting the potential for further price falls, recent reductions in net-long positioning and shifts in sentiment may signal an impending reversal to the upside for gold prices despite crowd pessimism.
August 13 I Session 2 I GBIH
The document discusses gold prices and the outlook for gold. It notes that gold dropped to a 15-month low of $1,662 after a flash crash but rebounded to around $1,759. The GDX ETF and gold miners also saw declines. The outlook for gold remains weak as central banks scale back stimulus, which is a negative environment for gold. It will be key for gold prices to overcome resistance at $1,752-1,760 to consolidate higher. Overall momentum indicators still show no clear bullish bias for gold.
November 12 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices turned bullish as falling US bond yields supported gold and the price broke above technical resistance levels. While the dollar was stronger overall against other currencies last week, falling yields had a bigger impact on gold prices than the dollar. Gold could continue higher if yields remain below 1.5% but may lose interest if yields rise above 1.6%. Technically, gold closed above key moving averages and resistance levels, pointing to potential for further gains in the near term.
October 25 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold prices have been range-bound in recent weeks, stuck between rising US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar. Technical indicators suggest gold will continue sideways trading in the near-term. While historically gold benefits from higher volatility, falling volatility is a bearish sign. Most analysts foresee gold prices remaining in a range, with support around $1763 and resistance at $1800, as technical indicators on daily, weekly and monthly timeframes show no strong directional bias. Sentiment analysis finds traders remain net-long, suggesting downside risk for prices according to a contrarian view.
August 10 I Session 2 I GBIH
The document discusses several factors that may impact the price of gold, including inflation, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risks like war, interest rates, and supply and demand dynamics. While inflation does not have a strong direct correlation with gold prices, currency depreciation and geopolitical instability tend to drive gold prices higher. Interest rates also have an inverse relationship with gold, as rising rates make bonds and dividends more attractive alternatives. Supply and demand from both institutional investors and countries like China and India are also important determinants of the gold price.
November 19 l Session 1 l GBIH
The document discusses whether gold has resumed its role as an inflation hedge. It notes that gold initially did not perform well against inflation this year but has recently strengthened. The key factor for gold is real yields on inflation-protected bonds, which have fallen significantly as investors rush to buy them, indirectly boosting gold prices. The document argues gold's rally could continue in the near term due to ongoing high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and seasonal factors. However, it says inflation may cool in the future as supply chains improve and rates rise, weakening the outlook for gold's performance over the longer term.
October 18 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold was one of the worst performing investments in 2021, declining almost 4% in September alone. Rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar in the third quarter were headwinds for gold prices. While gold is still seen as a hedge against inflation over the long run, its appeal as a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge have diminished recently due to expectations that the Fed will taper its monetary stimulus. However, if inflation proves more persistent than expected, demand for gold could rise again as an inflation hedge.
August 10 I Session 1 I GBIH
- The US dollar index has risen recently, causing gold and silver prices to plunge as the two assets are negatively correlated with the dollar.
- The dollar index bounced off an important support level and may have found a short-term bottom, signaling further gains that could pressure precious metals prices lower.
- Historically, summertime has seen major rallies in the dollar index, and its technical breakout suggests higher prices in the medium term, posing challenges for gold and silver. Investors should prepare for potential further declines in precious metals prices due to dollar strength.
July 1 I Session 2 I GBIH
The document discusses gold's recent performance and outlook. It notes that gold's brief rally after falling did not provide it strength, as the consolidation period was longer than past bottoms. Credit spreads declining to unprecedented low levels is typically bearish for gold, though it could signal economic problems later. While economic confidence remains high, supporting risk assets over gold for now, credit spreads may abruptly widen if a crisis emerges, benefiting gold.
November 24 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold prices fell significantly, dropping over 2% to near a 2-week low, as the dollar strengthened after Jerome Powell was renominated as Federal Reserve Chair, raising expectations that the Fed will stay on track to taper its economic support. Powell's renomination signaled that monetary policy would likely remain on its current path, boosting the dollar. While gold prices edged up slightly on the following day, the metal continued hovering near its recent low as the dollar remained strong on bets for earlier U.S. interest rate hikes.
November 16 l Session 1 l GBIH
- Gold prices rose last week as inflation outpaced nominal bond yields, pushing real yields lower. Further declines in real yields could support additional gains in gold prices.
- Key economic reports this week, including inflation data from the UK, Eurozone, and Canada, as well as US retail sales, could impact real yields and gold prices. Central bank commentary will also be watched for signals on inflation.
- Speculative investors have increased their net-long positions in gold futures to the highest level since June, according to CFTC data. However, IG client sentiment data suggests retail traders remain net-long, potentially signaling further downside for prices.
November 14 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold prices have surged to five-month highs as the recent US inflation data showed prices rising more than expected. While the data increased expectations of more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed, gold prices still rose, possibly signaling that markets fear the Fed is still lagging behind inflation. Technical analysis shows gold testing resistance and may challenge the $1,916 high. Sentiment data finds traders remain net long on gold despite being less long than recent weeks, suggesting gold prices could continue rising in the near term.
Oct 1 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices fell during Tuesday's trading session, breaking below the $1740 support level as US bond yields rose sharply. Higher yields benefit the US dollar, which gold is denominated in, putting pressure on prices. While gold rebounded slightly on Thursday, it remains under pressure from climbing Treasury yields. Several Fed officials commented that high inflation may require more aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 to address inflation concerns before the issue spirals out of control.
November 23 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold opened weakly on Monday but recovered from its lows in the first hour of trading. While gold prices remained under pressure from profit-taking, haven demand did not taper amid US and European economic uncertainties. The document discusses gold's spot price movements and outlook, noting gold may remain range-bound but to buy on dips as inflation and global uncertainties support the safe-haven asset. It provides charts showing bears eyeing a drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci level this week.
October 12 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold prices continue to face pressure below $1,760 as US Treasury yields rise, supporting the US dollar. Higher inflation concerns are keeping the dollar strong despite disappointing US jobs data, as the Fed is still expected to taper asset purchases in November. While a taper is likely, stagflation risks from ongoing supply issues could spark short covering in gold, which is seen as a hedge against rising inflation and slowing growth. Technical analysis indicates gold may test resistance at $1,790 first before a potential move higher toward its 200-day moving average.
October 12 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices were flat last week but the outlook remains bearish as the Fed is expected to begin tapering asset purchases in November. While US job growth in September missed estimates, rising wages may continue to bolster inflation. Gold faces resistance around $1765 as Treasury yields rise and the dollar strengthens, pressuring gold prices. Investors will watch the upcoming US CPI report for further clues on the Fed's policy outlook.
October 11 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold struggled to extend its rebound from $1,750 as the US dollar remained resilient despite a disappointing US jobs report. While gold spiked above $1,780 initially on the jobs data, the dollar index rebounded and gold failed to break above the 20-day simple moving average, with traders remaining focused on upcoming US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's tapering plans. Technical indicators point to continued downside risk for gold prices below key resistance levels.
November 8 l Session 1 l GBIH
The document discusses the monthly forex seasonality for November 2021. Key points:
- November is typically a good month for US stocks like the S&P 500, with average gains of over 2% for the past 5 and 10 years.
- It is typically a bad month for gold, with average losses of over 2.5% for gold prices against the US dollar.
- The US dollar is generally sideways trading in November, while the British pound and Japanese yen tend to perform well against the dollar. The euro typically underperforms.
November 21 l Session 1 l GBIH
- Gold broke out strongly in early November, potentially signaling the start of a macro rally. It has since consolidated above $1,877 support.
- For gold to turn bearish in the near-term, it will need a strong break below $1,834 support. Further pullbacks are unlikely and upside targets remain at $1,877 and $1,916 resistance levels.
- Gold rebounded as yields declined, but the strengthening US dollar may limit upside. Key support is at $1,850, with resistance around $1,863-$1,865. The technical outlook remains bullish overall for gold.
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Similar to September 27 I Session 1 I GBIH
October 7 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices have rebounded slightly in early October but skepticism remains about the sustainability of the rebound. Technical indicators on daily and weekly timeframes show that gold remains in a bearish trend. Rising US Treasury yields are putting pressure on gold prices by reducing its appeal. Gold volatility also remains at an atypically high level relative to gold prices. Overall the analysis suggests gold prices may continue their decline with a potential target below $1675.
August 6 I Session 2 I GBIH
- Gold prices dropped to over a one-week low, trading around $1810 as the dollar strengthened on hawkish Fed comments about potentially tapering asset purchases later in 2021.
- Gold witnessed wild swings the previous day but ended modestly higher, as the dollar weakened on disappointing jobs data but then rebounded on a strong services sector report.
- Looking ahead, the Bank of England and US jobs reports could impact gold prices, with the Fed remaining focused on inflation and a potential tapering of support.
December 1 k Session 1 l GBIH
The gold price has struggled to rise despite increased risk-off sentiment in the markets. While gold is typically seen as a safe-haven asset, its performance has been lackluster recently compared to US Treasuries. Gold futures remain below $1,800/oz despite a falling US 10-year bond yield. Moderna's CEO comments about existing vaccines struggling with Omicron increased market uncertainty but gold did not benefit. Looking ahead, gold prices may continue to be pressured by an elevated US dollar and receding inflation expectations that could allow central banks to tighten monetary policy.
August 3 I Session 1 I GBIH
Gold is showing signs of further declines in the coming months based on historical patterns from 2008 and 2012. Specifically:
- Gold corrected to around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from its highs, suggesting the top may be in.
- Gold's price patterns and the shapes of rallies and declines mirror those seen before further drawdowns in 2008 and 2012.
- Additional declines in gold could help prove the Federal Reserve's view that current inflation is transitory, giving an incentive for lower gold prices.
- Based on these analogies to past bear markets, the analysis predicts gold may decline to the March 2021 lows around $1,670 in the next phase of its bear
November 5 I Session 1 I GBIH
The document discusses how gold prices reacted to the recent Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision. It rose initially as the Fed signaled a potential rate hike in 2022 rather than 2021. However, gold prices are now eyeing the upcoming non-farm payrolls report and could fall if it impresses with strong job growth, as that could strengthen expectations for earlier rate hikes. Technical analyses show gold is currently testing resistance at its 50-day moving average and will need to break above that and further resistance at $1,785 to continue higher.
July 4 I Session 1 I GBIH
The document discusses how the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish shift signals about tapering and possible interest rate hikes have negatively impacted gold prices in June, pushing them down from $1,895 to $1,763. It analyzes previous tightening cycles and how gold performed, noting that gold does not necessarily suffer during tightening if inflation remains high. However, the expectations phase of tightening can still push gold lower short-term as investors anticipate policy changes. The document concludes that while history suggests gold may have further room to slide given taper expectations, higher long-term inflation could ultimately be positive for gold even during tightening.
September 30 I Session 1 I GBIH
The document analyzes the gold market and provides a forecast for XAU/USD (gold prices). It notes that gold prices continue to correct from highs in a potential "Head and Shoulders" pattern. It expects gold to test support near $1740 before potentially rebounding to over $1885. However, rising US Treasury yields make gold more susceptible to declines. The analysis concludes that gold may consolidate in the near term but broader declines are possible if yields continue rising.
August 25 I Session 1 I GBIH
The document discusses the XAUUSD currency pair, which represents the price of gold in US dollars. It covers what XAUUSD is, factors that influence gold prices like supply and demand, and provides an outlook for gold prices. Charts of historical XAUUSD prices are included, showing gold in an ongoing range between support at $1,764/oz and resistance at $1,836/oz. Recent gains in gold have taken prices back towards resistance levels, and further rises would require a break above $1,789.
August 12 I Session 2 I GBIH
Gold and gold stocks continue to decline as the US dollar index rises. Junior gold miners in particular have broken below previous yearly lows and are confirming a bearish breakdown. While gold may consolidate around $1750 in the short term, self-similarity in historical patterns suggests it and other precious metals will resume their declines. A strengthening US dollar and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy are creating headwinds for gold as economic data points to continued recovery.
August 18 I Session 2 I GBIH
Gold stocks have been declining significantly even as gold prices increase, indicating something is fundamentally wrong in the precious metals market. This extreme divergence between gold prices and gold stock prices is a critical sell signal. The author believes the precious metals sector has yet to see its final decline and expects gold and precious metals stocks to fall substantially in the coming weeks and months, which will provide profitable shorting opportunities. Technical indicators like head and shoulder patterns in gold and USD indexes further support the outlook for lower gold and precious metals prices ahead.
August 6 I Session 1 I GBIH
The gold and silver markets reversed course in a major way, contrary to expectations given positive economic news. Both the GDX and GDXJ mining ETFs closed lower, indicating sell signals. This reversal, accompanied by rising US dollar strength, suggests gold wants to move lower in the short term rather than higher. Gold remains in a choppy range, forming an ascending wedge, and needs a daily close above $1834 to confirm a breakout of its neutral outlook.
July 15 I Session 2 I GBIH
The document discusses factors that may influence gold prices going forward. It notes that talk of the Fed tapering stimulus could cause gold prices to fall as economies recover from COVID-19. However, gold bulls argue that post-pandemic economies will still be weak and may require more quantitative easing, providing support for gold. Technically, gold has broken out of a trading range but faces resistance around $1818 and will likely remain volatile as markets await comments from Fed Chair Powell on inflation and monetary policy.
November 28 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold prices rebounded from recent losses as fears over the new COVID-19 variant took hold. Inflation remains stubbornly high, supporting gold, but tighter Fed policy could weigh on prices. Technical analysis sees support at $1785 and resistance at $1825, with the near-term trend remaining bearish unless prices break above $1797. Economic data and virus developments are likely to drive volatility in gold prices next week.
September 28 I Session 1 I GBIH
Gold futures rose slightly as concerns over China Evergrande Group's debt situation continued to weigh on risk appetite. While gold gained as a safe-haven asset, its gains were limited by rising US Treasury yields. China's housing ministry tightened oversight of Evergrande's accounts to prioritize housing projects over creditors. Demand for gold also increased in China last week as investors sought safety. Central bank speakers and monetary policy decisions could impact gold prices going forward as tapering talks continue.
August 4 I Session 1 I GBIH
- Gold remains rangebound between support at $1,764/oz and resistance at $1,837/oz as it tests key Fibonacci retracement levels. It is awaiting a fundamental driver to break this range.
- Inflation outlook and this week's US jobs report may provide impetus for gold to attempt breaking out of its range. The Fed remains dovish and focused on the labor market for tapering.
- Technically, gold prices are testing resistance at $1,833.66/oz and a break above this level could confirm a reversal of June's sell-off and allow prices to target resistance at $1,853-1,859/oz.
July 1 I Session 1 I GBIH
The document discusses the bearish outlook for gold prices in the near future. It points to factors like a rising US dollar index and gold breaking below an important support line as signs that gold prices may decline further. Technical indicators on gold ETFs also show bearish signals, with the GDXJ junior mining ETF breaking below previous lows. The document predicts gold prices may test support around $1650 and for profits on short gold positions to increase in the coming weeks and months.
October 19 l Session 1 l GBIH
Goldman Sachs analysts believe that gold will outperform cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge. They see gold as undervalued with potential upside of 38% if economic growth slows. While gold currently prices in a moderate inflation scenario, significant inflation could push gold prices up to $2,500 per ounce. Cryptocurrencies are seen as more risky inflation hedges compared to the defensive qualities of gold as a long-term store of value. Overall the outlook for gold remains strong due to high debt levels globally and uncertainty around economic recovery.
July 11 I Session 1 I GBIH
The document discusses the bearish outlook for gold and gold miners based on their recent price performance. It notes that while gold rose slightly, gold miners declined profoundly and made new lows, signaling extreme underperformance that is bearish. The GDX and GDXJ ETFs have formed bearish head-and-shoulders patterns, with price targets below $38 for GDXJ. If gold declines by $150 as it did in June, miners would be expected to fall by $5.92 (GDX) and $9.76 (GDXJ) based on past correlations, reaching bearish price targets.
July 14 I Session 2 I GBIH
The FOMC projected two interest rate hikes in 2023, which was more hawkish than markets expected. As a result, gold prices plunged as higher rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding gold. While inflation remains high, a hawkish Fed is fundamentally negative for gold in the medium-term by strengthening the dollar and raising bond yields. Gold faces resistance around $1815 and support at $1803, but bullish technical signals and potentially peaking inflation could help gold prices rebound from current levels near $1800.
October 28 l Session 1 l GBIH
This document discusses technical analysis of gold prices. It notes that gold recently broke above key moving averages and trend lines, but has since pulled back to test former resistance turned support levels on the daily and 4-hour charts. It analyzes gold charts and discusses inflation concerns, bitcoin versus gold, and key technical support and resistance levels to watch on weekly gold charts. The document provides an overview of technical factors influencing gold prices and levels that could signal further directional moves.
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December 1 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold exploration expenditure fell slightly in the third quarter, dropping $100,000 to $429.7 million, though it remained higher than other commodities. The price of gold was also firmer on safe-haven demand amid renewed risk aversion in markets. Technical analysis showed gold testing key support at $1800 and at risk of further declines, as the trend remained downward despite opinions of gold bulls.
November 30 l Session 2 l GBIH
The document discusses the recent rebound in gold prices (XAU/USD) amid renewed fears about the coronavirus. It notes that gold prices fell last week as US Treasury bond yields rose, but then rebounded on Friday when a new COVID variant was detected in South Africa. The variant raises concerns about vaccines' effectiveness and sparked a flight to safe havens like gold. Looking ahead, gold prices could continue strengthening if safe haven demand persists, but US bond yields regaining could cap upside if the Fed signals a need to remain patient on rates.
November 30 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold consolidates below $1,800 as risk sentiment stabilizes on hopes the Omicron variant will be mild. The US dollar and Treasury yields rebound limits gold's gains, though virus concerns could push prices higher. Technical indicators show gold struggling between support and resistance levels around $1,785-1,800.
November 29 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold breached a long-held trendline as inflation rose, prompting increased demand for gold coins from the US Mint. While gold is often proclaimed to be "dead" as an investment, as was claimed in a 1997 article, it has historically risen in value during periods of high inflation and monetary expansion like the current environment. Though the gold mining sector is relatively small compared to technology giants, its small size means investment flows could have an outsized impact on prices.
November 29 l Session 2 l GBIH
Elevation Gold reported a drop in gold equivalent production for the quarter ended September 30, 2021 to 7,209 ounces, down from 7,823 ounces in the previous quarter. Revenue was $12.1 million with earnings from mine operations of $2.9 million before depreciation and depletion. During the same quarter last year, production was higher at 14,673 ounces and revenue was $26.8 million. The company said it is focusing on improving mining operations and efficiencies to increase throughput and grades going forward.
November 26 l Session 2 l GBIH
The document discusses how gold prices have fallen recently due to the Federal Reserve's signals of potentially speeding up tapering of asset purchases and raising interest rates sooner in response to high inflation. The appointment of Jerome Powell to another term as Fed Chair, seen as more hawkish than alternative candidate Lael Brainard, has raised expectations of rate hikes. Additionally, a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields have weighed on gold prices. Technically, gold has broken below key support levels and bulls will want to see a close above $1,800 to indicate an overreaction, though $1,835 will be needed to reignite a bullish outlook.
November 26 l Session 1 l GBIH
The document discusses the gold price forecast and technical analysis of XAU/USD. It notes that gold gained some traction due to US dollar profit-taking but faces resistance at $1,800. The daily chart shows gold defending an ascending trendline support near $1,722. Traders are awaiting a break below this trendline to confirm a fresh breakdown and shorting opportunity in gold. Key technical levels between $1,779 support and $1,807 resistance are also identified.
November 25 l Session 1 l GBIH
Gold prices have fallen as US yields have risen after Jerome Powell was re-nominated as Fed Chair, lifting the US dollar. Rising nominal yields and falling inflation expectations have boosted real yields, hurting gold. Technically, gold faces resistance around $1,800 and support around $1,750, with bears eyeing a break below $1,790 to target $1,707. Fundamentally, markets await upcoming US data and the FOMC minutes for clues on the Fed's tapering plans.
November 24 l Session 2 l GBIH
This document examines the historical relationship between US presidential elections and gold prices. It finds that gold performance around elections is complex, with prices rising or falling under both Republican and Democratic administrations. While gold has become more responsive to macroeconomic factors since the 1970s, there is no clear linear pattern between political parties and gold. The document tracks gold prices in election years since 1980, finding volatility increases around elections but no consistent pattern. It concludes that many factors influence gold, making the impact of any single election uncertain, particularly in today's economically challenging environment.
November 23 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices retreated as a Fed governor said the central bank should speed up tapering its bond purchases to allow for earlier interest rate hikes if high inflation persists. This led markets to price in two full rate hikes for 2022. Looking ahead, upcoming US economic data could influence monetary policy expectations, which may impact gold if a more hawkish shift occurs. Technical analysis indicates gold may test support at $1,827 and resistance at $1,870, with a break below the former opening the door for further declines.
November 22 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices consolidated after reaching a monthly high as upbeat US economic data reduced expectations of further Fed stimulus. The gold price may remain supported if the latest US PCE price index shows another month of high inflation, but it faces a pullback ahead of the Fed's policy update. Technical indicators suggest gold could stage a deeper correction if it fails to hold above $1,850 support.
November 22 l Session 1 l GBIH
The document discusses the gold (XAUUSD) price analysis. It notes that gold is currently in a bullish long-term trend but bearish medium-term trend. The price may bounce off resistance at $1,873 or break support at $1,831. If support holds, prices could rise to $1,908-$1,959, but a break below $1,831 may see prices fall to $1,796-$1,750. Central bank speakers and the US dollar will be key influences on gold prices going forward.
November 19 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices broke through a major resistance level at $1834 last week, continuing higher to set a new five-month high of $1877. The breakout has formed a bullish channel and bear flag pattern, suggesting further upside if buyers can push above the $1876 50% Fibonacci retracement level from last year's high. However, gold faces resistance around $1900 and the dollar and Treasury yields could rise again to weigh on gold prices if the Fed signals a more hawkish stance at its December policy meeting.
November 18 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold price futures (GC) Technical Analysis - Trade Through$1851.00 Confirms Closing Price Reversal Top
November 18 l Session 1 l GBIH
The document discusses recent rises in gold prices following higher-than-expected US inflation data. It notes that gold initially rose alongside the US dollar but then weakened as Treasury yields increased, bolstered by strong US retail sales. Technical analysis suggests gold has support at $1,850 and may test resistance at $1,870 or $1,900 if momentum sustains. Fed comments and upcoming inflation data could impact gold prices by influencing yields and the dollar.
November 17 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices are at multi-month highs near $1870, supported by bullish calls from banks like Goldman Sachs forecasting a rise to $2000. Technically, gold looks bullish and could break through resistance at $1870 to $1900 if real yields remain low. However, further gains face pressure from rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and potentially more hawkish Fed rhetoric this week. The document analyzes gold's technical and fundamental drivers while eyeing economic data like US retail sales for short-term direction.
November 17 l Session 1 l GBIH
The gold price is heading back towards the $1,870 resistance level as the US dollar retreats along with Treasury yields amid improving market sentiment. Gold bulls are bidding up ahead of the upcoming US retail sales data release, with technical indicators pointing to further gains. However, gains face challenges from the US dollar and Treasury yields, as well as expectations of an earlier Fed rate hike.
November 16 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices closed higher after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rate hikes off the table, reassurring markets. Gold was supported above $1,855 and gained over $110 since early November due to inflation fears and low rates. Technical indicators showed gold in overbought territory and at resistance around $1,865, with support at $1,850.
November 15 l Session 2 l GBIH
Gold prices rose for the second straight week and seventh consecutive day as US inflation data accelerated to a 30-year high. Gold futures settled slightly higher on Friday at $1,868.50 per ounce but were on track for the biggest weekly gain since May due to rising inflation concerns challenging the Federal Reserve's view that inflation will be transitory. While gold was down on the day, it headed for its largest weekly jump in six months as investors saw bullion as a hedge against inflation. Technical analysis of gold futures showed support at $1,831 and resistance at $1,873, with the long-term and medium-term trends both remaining bullish.
November 15 l Session 1 l GBIH
The document discusses the price movements of gold (XAU/USD), which has been trading sideways within a range of $1,840-65. While inflation data has supported gold prices recently, pushing them higher, the relative strength index is in overbought territory, suggesting the upward move may slow. Attention is now on upcoming comments from Fed officials that could impact expectations around the pace of monetary policy normalization and inflation.
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四.办理各国各大学文凭(一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度)
如果您处于以下几种情况：
◇在校期间，因各种原因未能顺利毕业……拿不到官方毕业证【q/微741003700】
◇面对父母的压力，希望尽快拿到；
◇不清楚认证流程以及材料该如何准备；
◇回国时间很长，忘记办理；
◇回国马上就要找工作，办给用人单位看；
◇企事业单位必须要求办理的
◇需要报考公务员、购买免税车、落转户口
◇申请留学生创业基金
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
一比一原版美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证学历认证真实可查
永久可查学历认证【微信：A575476】【美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证成绩单Offer】【微信：A575476】（留信学历认证永久存档查询）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信：A575476】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信：A575476】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：可来公司面谈，可签订合同，会陪同客户一起到教育部认证窗口递交认证材料，客户在教育部官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
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- 2. Points To Be Discussed Today: • Gold Prices Failed To Retake • Ugly Price Action Post-FOMC • Gold Prices Have Unfavorable Fundamental Conditions • Gold Volatility And Gold Prices’ Abnormal Relationship • Gold Volatility Trading • Gold Prices Remain Below Former Support • XAU/USD Daily & Monthly Chart
- 3. Gold Prices Failed To Retake • Gold prices failed to retake the uptrend from the May 2019, March 2020, and March 2021 lows, and are nearing their monthly low. • It remains the case that “selling the rally may be the modus operandi henceforth.” • According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, gold prices surprisingly have a bullish bias in the near-term.
- 4. Ugly Price Action Post-FOMC • We’ve been ambivalent about rallies in gold prices for the past several weeks. • Just two days ago it was noted that “what’s happening in gold prices is nothing more than a ‘dead cat bounce’…in recent Fed meetings and moreover, minutes from those Fed meetings. • Gold prices haven’t fared well as US policymakers inch ever-closer towards making a stimulus taper announcement.”
- 5. Gold Prices Have Unfavorable Fundamental Conditions • Price action in the 48-hours around the September Fed meeting have vindicated this apprehension towards the gold price rally that marked the start of the week. • Now that the FOMC has offered some more clarity on its taper timeline and the tension around China’s Evergrande, the country’s second largest property developer, is being relieved. • Gold prices have unfavorable fundamental conditions in the near-term.
- 6. Gold’s Ascent Has Now Become A Veritable Headwind • In particular, now that US Treasury yields are rising, which is translating into higher US real yields (nominal yields less inflation). • One of the key factors that might have otherwise supported gold’s ascent has now become a veritable headwind.
- 7. Gold Volatility And Gold Prices’ Abnormal Relationship • Historically, gold prices have a relationship with volatility unlike other asset classes. • While other asset classes like bonds and stocks don’t like increased volatility – signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc. – gold tends to benefit during periods of higher volatility. • Falling gold volatility and weak correlations suggests continued difficult trading may be ahead for gold prices.
- 8. GVZ (Gold Volatility) Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (September 2020 To September 2021)
- 9. Gold Volatility Trading • Gold volatility (as measured by the Cboe’s gold volatility ETF, GVZ, which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD option chain) was trading at 16.37. • The relationship between gold prices and gold volatility remains abnormal. • The 5-day correlation between GVZ and gold prices is -0.27 while the 20-day correlation is - 0.71. One week ago, on September 16, the 5-day correlation was -0.98 and the 20-day correlation was -0.45.
- 10. Gold Price Rate Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (August 2020 To September 2021)
- 11. Gold Prices Remain Below Former Support • Earlier this week it was noted that “even though a rebound has transpired over the past 24-hours. • Gold prices remain below former support in the symmetrical triangle that encompassed price action from January through July. • And more recently have traded below the ascending trendline from the May 2019, March 2020, and March 2021 lows. • Further weakness cannot be ruled out at this time.”
- 12. Gold Prices Remain Below • Gold prices have since failed at these former support levels, duly treating them as resistance after what appeared to be a ‘dead cat bounce.’ • More losses may be on the way given the posture of momentum indicators. • Gold prices remain below their daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, which is in bearish sequential order. • Daily MACD continues to decline while below its signal line, and daily Slow Stochastics are pushing back into oversold territory.
- 13. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Weekly Chart (October 2015 To September 2021)
- 14. Gold Prices’ Technical Structure • Gold prices’ technical structure on the weekly timeframe has not improved by any stretch of the imagination in the 48-hours around the September Fed meeting. • The weekly 4-, 13-, and 26-EMA envelope continues to slide lower, while weekly MACD is dropping further below its signal line. • Weekly Slow Stochastics are accelerating lower below their median line. It remains the case that “selling the rally may be the modus operandi henceforth.”
- 16. Retail Trader Data • Retail trader data shows 74.85% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.98 to 1. • The number of traders net-long is 1.67% lower than yesterday and 4.40% lower from last week, while the number of traders net- short is 15.61% higher than yesterday and 58.37% higher from last week.
- 17. Gold Price Trend May Soon Reverse Higher • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. • Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. • Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net- long.
- 21. THANKS FOR LISTENING GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK